Please begin Chapter IV comments here:
Previous Comments:
Chapter I: http://www.investigativemedia.com/yarnell-hill-fire-investigation-ignored-major-mistakes-by-the-state/
Chapter II: http://www.investigativemedia.com/granite-mountain-hotshots-were-asked-if-they-could-protect-yarnell/
Chapter II supplement: http://www.investigativemedia.com/state-forestry-divison-fined-nearly-560000-for-mistakes-in-managing-yarnell-hill-fire-that-killed-19-hotshots/
Chapter III: http://www.investigativemedia.com/chapter-iii-for-comments/
Thank you, John
© Copyright 2014 John Dougherty, All rights Reserved. Written For: Investigative MEDIA
its wood post and 3 strand barbwire fence…to answer someone what I saw 6-30-13 and all my hikes to that area the past almost decade in the location of describing the fencing for the Helm’s-
I confirmed it with another hiker and as well Yarnell local Buford-
I knew it was that but Sonny threw me off trying to tell me it was stucco but I told Sonny that was the front gated area not the area in question-
I hoped I answered the question I could not find and went with what Sonny told me to answer—
I am not sure why I was asked that but Sonny said I needed to come and answer someone; I scrolled to find the question to put it in right spot but I am still so tired and cannot locate it. I don’t know why the fencing matters right by the Helm’s but I can tell you ANYONE who is respectful before the fire or even after would not go that close in the tight terrain area yet they would possibly curve around their hill there by the dry cattle ground tank and go up where they came down during daylight not dark—then you scale the base of boulders & tight terrain around to the old grader wash road- I feel bad that the terrain burnt away because the Helm’s had a lovely private spot and they lost that from that fire because not only is their tight green terrain not there but people sneak in the restricted area and at times people are on their land (Helm’s) not even realizing it. GOOGLE Yavapai Assessor and you will see they own outside the areas of that fencing as well but people do not do what I do and get written permission from land/home owners if I am hiking off state or BLM land- it’s a respect thing. I know who owns every spot I lay my feet.
and one more thing, I should have said see; the Loop Fire, the Battlement Creek Fire, the South Canyon Fire as far as hotshot deaths go, AND see, the YARNELL HILL FIRE.
Has any one listened to Roberts Caldwells Second video. Im pretty sure this is the conversation between marsh and ops saying to hunker down and stay safe. Not sure if this has been mentioned yet. Way to many posts on this site with no real relevance to anything.
NOTE——New chapter V started go to it——-
The exact URL for Chapter V of this ongoing discussion is…
http://www.investigativemedia.com/yarnell-hill-fire-chapter-v-comments/
**
** THE SAIT DID USE THE WORDS ‘MOPPING UP’ TO DESCRIBE
** THE FIRE STATUS ON SATURDAY MORNING.
This is a follow-up to a previous post where Sitta wondered if the
words ‘mop up’ or ‘mopping up’ were ever actually used to describe
the status of the Yarnell HIll Fire on Saturday morning… when all
reports agree the fire was only 2-4 acres and showing ‘little to
no fire activity’.
As it turns out… that is exactly how the SAIT described it.
Here is Sitta’s original question… and my initial reply…
>> WTKTT reply to Sitta post on February 10, 2014 at 8:20 am
>>
>>>> Sitta wrote…
>>>>
>>>> Mop up may take place on quiet sections of a large, uncontained fire.
>>>> Usually, though, the mop up phase doesn’t really begin until the whole fire
>>>> is lined. I was under the impression that on Saturday the crews were
>>>> still containing the fire (building line around it), not mopping up. Do the
>>>> details or records exist that can more clearly tell us what was actually
>>>> going on?
>>
>> Not really. There are some vague descriptions and clues and, of course
>> the photographs from Saturday.
>>
>> ALL of the official reports ( and SAIT interviewees ) agree that on Saturday
>> morning there was no visible fire, little or no smoke, and descriptions
>> vary from ‘Fire was very minor’ to ‘Fire showing no activity’ and ‘Fire
>> was only 2-4 acres’.
>>
>> They all also agree that everyone assumed the fire was ‘contained on
>> all four sides’ and never grew in size all day… until it jumped the road.
>>
>> The ONLY report that even mentions what the DOC Lewis crew’s actual
>> ASSIGNMENT was that morning is the ADOSH report which says this…
>>
>> “At 1100 a BLM helicopter transported seven firefighters to the top of the ridge.
>> One helitack crew member and six DOC Lewis Crew firefighters hiked in the
>> rest of the way ( for a total of 14 firefighters there at the 2-4 acre fire site ) to
>> construct handline, cold trail and hot spot.”
>>
>> So the words ‘mop-up’ are never specifically mentioned, but the actual
>> source for this quote and/or who ever said that was their actual
>> assignment is also not mentioned in the ADOSH report, or
>> anywhere else.
As it turns out… that is an incorrect statement I made.
The OFFICIAL SAIT documentation DOES say that one of the things DOC Lewis
crew was actually doing on Saturday morning/afternoon was simply ‘mopping up’
( their words ) the Yarnell Hill Fire.
The specific words ‘mopping up’ were written by the SAIT investigation team itself
in their preliminary report that they released just 72 hours after the incident
and after the first pass of interviews.
That original 72 ‘summary’ report from the SAIT is still online here…
http://www.azsf.az.gov/system/files/documents/files/Yarnell%20Hill%20Fire%20Summary%20Revised%207-18-2013%2016%2030.pdf
It contains one of the only specific quotes about what the Lewis DOC crew’s
actual ‘assignment’ was on Saturday morning, June 29, 2013.
That quote is as follows…
“A six man squad from Lewis Crew and one BLM helitack crewman were flown
into the fire ( Saturday, 10:30 AM ) by the BLM light helicopter.
( An additional 7 members of the DOC Lewis crew ‘hiked in’ to the same spot
for a total of 14 firefighters there at the 2-4 acrew fire showing little to no activity
at that time. ) Firefighters made progress hot-spotting the few active areas and
MOPPED UP (extinguishing burning material) along the two track jeep road.”
NOTE: The SAIT specifically says they were just ‘mopping up’ AND that their
focus ( all day? ) was ‘extinguishing burning material along the two track
jeep road’. This is the very ‘jeep road’ where the fire would ‘escape’ more
than FIVE hours later after these 14 men had been working up there all day.
This preliminary SAIT report released just 72 hours after the Yarnell incident
is also the ONLY official document that gives any detail at all about what
happened later that afternoon… when the fire ‘jumped the jeep road’ and
became the fire that would need to be fought on Sunday.
That quote is as follows…
“At about 4:30 p.m. a small unburned island on the east side of the fire
flamed up and spotted across the two track jeep road on the east side
(called a “slopover”).”
That mention of a ‘small unburned island’ is never mentioned again in
any other official report. All the (final) official reports simply said that
sometime around 4:30 PM the fire that had been ‘fully contained on
all sides’ for over 5 hours suddenly ( and inexplicably ) ‘jumped the jeep road’.
So even though the SAIT specifically says the Lewis DOC crew was
just ‘hot-spotting’ and ‘mopping up’ all day ( along the two-track jeep
road ) there still is no evidence whether they were using any ‘indirect
attack’ or ‘burnoffs’ of their own to accomplish that… or whether any
such ‘manual burnoff’ might have been how the fire “accidentally”
escaped over the jeep road circa 4:30.
>> On February 15, 2014 at 3:16 pm, Observer asked…
>>
>> WWKTT- Why the quotation marks around “accidentally”?
>> Are you still of the opinion that group was setting a line of
>> fire that got out of control?
Observer…
Short answer: I no longer believe they were ever doing any large,
organized ‘line burnouts’ that day… but YES… I still believe it is
POSSIBLE that this documented flare-up of just a ‘small island of
unburned material’ might have been manually ignited as part of
the ‘cleanup’ and ‘mopping up’ the SAIT says they were doing up
there all day.
Longer answer…
RTS and others have already pointed out that if they actually had been set
up to do any kind of major ‘line burnout’ ( for over a mile as one of the rumors
that was circulating later that night said ) then there would have most probably
been a lot of ‘radio traffic’ about that ‘event’ and I now agree with everyone
else about that…
…but it might not have been such an organized ‘line burnout’ at all.
See the quote from the SAIT itself in their preliminary report where the
actual cause of the ‘escape’ was listed as simply a ‘small unburned
island’ near the jeep trail…
“At about 4:30 p.m. a small unburned island on the east side of the fire
flamed up and spotted across the two track jeep road on the east side
(called a “slopover”).”
So that doesn’t sound like any kind of organized ‘line burnout’ event,
planned or not.
It was either this ‘small unburned island’ flaring up all by itself OR it
was just a small ‘indirect cleanup burn’ that was manually initiated in
order to ‘clear out’ that little ‘unburned island’ about an hour before they
were supposed to all be air-lifted out of there.
Russ Shumate’s original plan was to helicopter them out of there by
15:30 that afternoon… so I still think it’s possible they might have
decided themselves to just try and ‘clear out’ that little ‘unburned
island’ themselves about an hour before they were supposed to
finish their shift… and something went wrong.
I also don’t think that, unlike a full planned ‘line burnout’, that that kind
of simple burnoff/cleanup work just to clear out little ‘unburned
islands’ would have been something that would have generated any
radio traffic at all. It would have just been part of whatever they were
doing up there that day.
Don’t forget that these kind of little ‘burnouts down/back to roads’ was
exactly what Granite Mountain was doing after they arrived at the exact
same ‘anchor’ area the NEXT morning… and they felt no need to have
management fully informed about every little fire they were setting on
purpose. It was just part of Marsh’s chosen ‘indirect attack’ approach and
they were just going about their business lighting back-fires and whatnot.
There is no evidence that the Lewis crew ever did any ‘indirect attack’
or ‘backfires’ or ‘small burnouts’ up there on Saturday at all… but
then again… there is no real evidence WHAT they were EVER really doing
up there that day… except eventually running out of chainsaw gas and then
being able to get any more even after that ‘small unburned island’ flared
up ( somehow ) at 4:30 PM and jumped the jeep road.
It’s not all that likely they, themselves, caused the fire to jump the road…
but I believe it’s still possible that might have been what actually happened.
Typo in second-to-last paragraph above.
The DOC Lewis crew was UNABLE to get anyone to bring them
any more chainsaw gas once they ran out… so they lost the
use of their chainsaws BEFORE the fire suddenly ‘jumped the
two-track road’.
Whether that loss of the use of their chainsaws caused them to
actually switch to using ‘small burnouts’ to finish their work
before their shift was supposed to end at 1530 is probably
just one more good question that needs to be answered about
what really happened up there on Saturday.
The BR notes clearly indicate there were civilians still in town later than I realized, probably well after 1700. Does it not seem that the wind shift that killed GM might have actually saved lives in Yarnell? The shift it seems to me probably slowed the progress of the fire towards Yarnell just enough for people to get out. If the fire had continued running full tilt at Yarnell, it seems like it would have gotten there even quicker, and likely overrun some civilians. Correct me if I am wrong, but the recent comment (in one of the entities’ claims denial) that the evacuations were a success in that no one died is “head in the sand” to the max. That no civilians died is looking more and more like a blooming miracle.
Reply to mike post on February 15, 2014 at 5:39 pm
>> mike said…
>> That no civilians died is looking more and more like
>> a blooming miracle.
Yes, it is.
Have you not seen the scary video taken by a Glen Ilah resident
as he was evacuating from deep within the Glen Ilah subdivision
at pretty much the exact moment the deployment site
burnover was taking place?
That video is here on YouTube…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_AjhL448ZA
The first few ‘segments’ in the video were filmed from his
house in Glen Ilah on Saturday night… and the fourth and
fifth segments were shot from his driveway in Glen Ilah about
3:45 PM on Sunday, June 30, 2013… but the SIXTH segment
shows him evacuating in the nick of time on Sunday afternoon.
As the ‘evacuation’ segment in his video starts… the resident is
exactly (only) 1,382 yards due east of the deployment site itself
at exactly 1648 ( 4:48 PM ).
It is pitch dark. Houses are on fire all around him and fields
fully ablaze as he follows a DPS Ambulance out to safety.
I originally posted ALL the details about this video ( times,
latitudes, longitudes of all the moments in the video, etc. )
over in Chapter 3 of this ongoing discussion.
Here’s a quick summary from that original posting…
WantsToKnowTheTruth on January 2, 2014 at 10:13 pm said:
** VIDEO SHOT BY GLEN ILAH CITIZEN ON JUNE 30, 2013
** WAS TAKEN AT THE EXACT MOMENT OF BURNOVER
** OUT AT THE DEPLOYMENT SITE.
A few days ago, Eric found some videos on YouTube taken
in Yarnell on June 30, 2013.
ONE of the videos Eric found, taken by a citizen of Glen Ilah
( which shows him evacuating his house in the nick of time at
the western edge of Glen Ilah that afternoon ), has turned
out to be quite important because of exactly WHEN and
WHERE he shot this video.
In this video, at +1:12, right after he says “There goes a
neighbor’s f***ing house… Holy s**t”… the camera pans down
for a moment and we see the fully lighted instrument panel in
his car.
An LED panel on the dashboard says…
Time: 4:48 PM
Temperature: 97 degrees F.
4:48 PM is at or about the exact time of the burnover at the
deployment site… and the camera is actually only 1,382 yards
away from the deployment site itself at the moment he is filming
himself evacuating. The sky is PITCH BLACK at that moment
and it looks like the middle of the night.
Here are the YouTube details on that video…
YouTube title: Yarnell Fire
Published on Jul 19, 2013
By YouTube User: fathomsuperfly ( 5 videos )
YouTube About Information: Yarnell Fire. This is my escape
from Glen Ilah, neighborhood that got the worst of the fire.
The first THREE ‘segments’ in the video appear to have been
shot from the driveway of his home in Glen Ilah sometime just
after sundown on Saturday, June 29, 2013.
The next TWO segments appear to have been shot sometime around 3:45 PM on Sunday, June 30, 2013. Again… both of
these videos are being shot from the driveway of his home in
the western part of Glen Ilah… where we will then see him
evacuating from in the next segment at 4:48 PM.
The smoke cloud is building fast just to the north.
The SIXTH segment begins the sequence of videos he shot
while actually evacuating from his home at 4:48 PM the afternoon
of July 30, 2013.
That is pretty much the exact moment when the burnover was
taking ( or had just taken ) place at the deployment site just
1,382 yards due west of where he is now shooting video.
It is TOTALLY DARK at that moment, in that area, as if it were
the ‘dead of night’.
As usual… with any latitude,longitude values shown below, just
cut-and-paste the line with the comma separating the two values
into the address bar of Google Maps, hit ENTER, and a GREEN
ARROW will be pointing to the exact location.
** Segment: Start: +0:41 End: +0:43
Late afternoon, Sunday, July 30, 2013. Circa 3:45 PM.
Shot from the end of the driveway of his home, out near Ridgeway
drive, and looking north/northwest down Ridgeway Drive.
The wind is blowing pretty hard.
Camera location is exactly here…
22906 Ridgeway Dr, Yarnell, AZ 85362
34.217616, -112.764221
He is at almost the western edge of Glen Ilah and the distance
from where he is standing ( his house ) to the center of the
deployment site itself ( due west ) is…
4147.74 ft
1382.58 yards
0.7 mile(s)
The distance from the camera location, due west, to the center
of the Boulder Springs Ranch is…
2128.38 ft
709.4 yards
0.1 mile(s)
** Segment: Start: +0:44 End: +0:51
Shot from almost the same location as the previous segment,
just a few moments later.
Shows the small white house with a grey roof that appears to
be the camera operator’s actual residence.
He is now standing IN his own yard panning the camera south
instead of north.
Camera location is exactly here, near the tree in his yard…
34.217565, -112.764118
** THE START OF HIS EVACUATION FROM GLEN ILLAH
**
** Segment: Start: +0:52 End: +1:10
This is the segment that is later in the afternoon on June 30, 2013,
but starts out completely BLACK because of the smoke cloud
now overhead.
He is evacuating now.
We see him pulling out of the driveway of his home and about
to head north on Ridgeway Drive.
** Segment: Start: +1:11 End: +1:17
He has just left his driveway, is heading north on Ridgeway Drive
and we see him taking a right-hand turn onto Westward Drive to
head east and out of Glen Ilah.
Visbility is almost ZERO at this point.
At +1:12, right after he says “There goes a neighbor’s f***ing
house… Holy s**t”… the camera pans down for a moment
and we see the fully lighted instrument panel in the car.
An LED panel on the dashboard says…
Time: 4:48 PM
Temperature: 97 degrees fahrenheit
There is other videos like this we have seen from people but has not been made public. We left much later than this man and saw much more damage before leaving that June 30th, 2013. These are videos I wish people who shared to us would share to you all or share to us in a way we can share to you all. Enough keeping this quiet. We believe what we saw that day plus others’ accounts is very important for you all here to properly assess this fire as Joy feels strongly about that people should do the right thing and share what they have no matter how tiny of information.
Reply to sonny post on Feb 16, 2014 at 5:22 pm
Thank you, sonny. Totally agree.
No detail is too small when it comes to piecing
together ( for posterity’s sake ) exactly what
happened that entire weekend in Yarnell.
People deserve to know.
I believe the significant thing about the video
posted above is that it was shot at exactly the
time ( or just minutes after ) the burnover
event out at the deployment site and will probably
turn out to be the closest video to the actual deployment area shot around that time, unless
the Boulder Springs Ranch security cameras
were still recording video at that time.
The camera was only 1,382 yards east of the
deployment site and only 709 yards away from
the center of the Boulder Springs Ranch.
Question for you ( or anyone )…
Does ANYONE know where Yarnell Fire Chief
Jim Koile was all day on either Saturday ( June 29 )
or Sunday ( June 30 )?
Did he remain ‘in town’ that weekend and was
he present at the Yarnell Fire Station… or out
helping with evacuations when the time came
on Sunday?
There is some mention of him in the official
reports regarding Friday, June 28… but then
there is then absolutely NO mention of him at all
for the rest of that weekend… or even for the
days following the incident on Sunday.
If Chief Koile was NOT there that weekend…
then who was manning the Yarnell Fire Station?
Elizabeth — a little more specific would be better. If Hot Shots were being asked to take there trucks or ATV and make sure residences were being evacuated that’s possible and still work within the 10 and 18 as you move but not on foot assisting the Sheriff’s. Granit mountain was not in that position where they were. If your saying BR took there ATV and tried to find the crew that also is doable with Safety and not getting in a jackpot them selves.
This whole statement seems to be trying to make a story that makes Granit Mountain Hero’s which dose not fit where they were what they were doing or how long it would have taken to get to town. If your talking BR Brown trying to find the crew follow his route he stayed in the BLACK during his search with the other 2 ATV’s. He was staying safe. Granit mountain was not in a position to help any one and should have stayed in the BLACK.
OK read the BR statements. Fire Fighters for years have ran thru jumped thru flames to a safer location. Driving ATV’s on a road thru flames to the cold black at 25 to 35 MPH after checking the situation That’s not a violation of the 10 and 18 that I know of They had all the info to make that happen with out injury. They did not need LCES to do that.
Looks like ADOSH simply just got around to fulfilling all the
pending FOIA requests and everyone simply got their
CDs last week. The Blue Ridge logs are just the same
REDACTED stuff that ADOSH got at the last minute
before they released their report.
I don’t know what else might be in the logs… but that
simple Arizona Republic article doesn’t really tell us
anything we hadn’t already figured out over here.
Matter of fact… the article is actually still WRONG about
some things.
All THREE of the PNF hires Jason Clawson, Aaron Hulburd
and KC (Casey) ‘Bucky’ Yowell had ‘joined’ Frisby and
Brown with the other two UTVs… and not just two of them
as the article is reporting.
The only real ‘dangerous’ part was also what we already
figured out over here… and that was making it to the
St. Joseph Shrine parking lot and then the final 200 yards
to the Youth Camp so they could then take a ‘left’ onto
that cutover road that they already knew was fully
bulldozed and would be ‘safe to travlel’ because that’s
where Blue Ridge had been working all day.
The rest of the trip was ‘hot’ ( with probably side of
the road spot fires ) but essentially all ‘in the black’
by that time.
I wonder if the ADOSH release(s) this week were
ONLY the Blue Ridge logs… or whether some people
finally now have ALL of the material that we know they
had before they published their report.
I would be particularly interested to know if ADOSH
released notes/transcripts of their known interviews
with Justin Smith, Jake Guadiana and other members
of the DOC Lewis crew who worked the fire Saturday.
Justin Smith was the ICT4(T) trainee that Russ Shumate
specifically hired on Friday to work the incident on
Saturday. Russ was letting HIM ‘run the fire’ for most
( all? ) of Saturday… right through the ‘incident’ where
the fire jumped over the jeep trail and became the fire
that had to be fought on Sunday.
Jake Guadiana was the DOC Lewis crew boss who
was actually out there with the crew as they worked
that small 2-4 acre fire all day Saturday… until it
‘accidentally’ escaped over the road around 4:30 PM.
I’d also love to see the FULL Blue Ridge logs ( or at least
have an idea of what was redacted… and WHY )… but
looks like that might only be available after the trials,
if ever.
WWKTT- Why the quotation marks around “accidentally”? Are you still of the opinion that group was setting a line of fire that got out of control?
I don’t believe it as much as I did at first
when studying what happened on Saturday…
but yes… I still believe it’s a possibility.
I’d still like to hear more from the people that
were actually out there that day.
We KNOW that ADOSH has interviewed
all the DOC Lewis Crew bosses and some
of the crew that were actually out there
that day… but the ADOSH report never
really reported any details from those
interviews. Even the ADOSH report
doesn’t say exactly what happened
that afternoon.
Followup…
Observer… see a longer answer
to your question up above which
also contains new information
about the SAIT itself describing
what the Lewis Crew was doing
as ( their words ) ‘mopping up’.
That post is now just up ABOVE
this one since the thread itself
just seemed to have changed
to listing ‘last postings first’.
It has the following date and title…
On February 15, 2014 at 11:04 pm
WantsToKnowTheyTruth said:
** THE SAIT DID USE THE
** WORDS ‘MOPPING UP’
** TO DESCRIBE THE FIRE
** STATUS ON SATURDAY
** MORNING.
And one more thing…I was asked almost 10 years ago to donate a Happy Jack Hotshot crew t-shirt to the WFF, and I called around and found a never worn shirt that a friend of mine had in a trunk that I sent to them, which you can see on display if you ever visit their museum. In addition…I offered other Happy Jack and Santa Fe Hotshot crew memorabilia I had to them in the process. So…as you can see, I have been a supporter and believer in the WFF mission for a long time myself, but I am concerned about Brendan’s overall future…even if I would like him to tell us what he knows.
The more I read all the investigation notes and compare them
with other ‘tidbits’ from the three ‘official’ reports released… the
more I think that Brendan might not be the only one who has
some of the answers. ( I’m leaving Willis out of the equation
for the moment ).
I think it’s possible that Prescott FF Marty Cole also knows more
than he has ever said to anyone.
It’s still sort of a mystery what was actually going on with
Brendan once Marsh broadcasted his “We are deploying”
message. About the only thing we know for sure is that
Brendan was there in the Ranch House Restaurant parking
lot along with everyone else… and he STAYED there
throughout all of the anxious moments following that last
transmission from Marsh… and on up until the point where
Ranger 58 thought they had ‘found them’ up at the anchor
point, the ground rescue team was organized, and that’s
when Brian Frisby got with Brendan and obtained the actual
GM Crew Manifest for the day directly FROM Brendan.
Frisby gave it to Captain Trueheart Brown before they left
on the ground rescue mission. It was physically in Brown’s
possession when they all finally ended up at the ACTUAL
deployment site.
After that ( Brendan giving Frisby the GM crew manifest in the
parking lot ) the only thing we know is that Marty Cole met up
with Brendan and Cole says he ‘collected’ Brendan and was
then ‘taking care of him at that point’.
I find it inconceivable, given the circumstances at that moment
( no one was still really SURE where the heck they deployed ),
that Marty Cole didn’t at least ask Brendan some simple/relevant
questions like….
“What happened?”
and/or
“Do YOU know why they left the black and where they were going?”
and/or
“Do YOU know where they might really be right now?”
I would also find it equally inconceivable that if Marty Cole had
even asked Brendan these kinds of simple ( but important )
questions… that Brendan would have said…
“No comment”.
So yea… it’s perfectly possible that PNF FF Marty Cole and
anyone else who was near Brendan ( even BR guys ) as
the tragedy unfolded ( and there was NOTHING more important
at that moment than determining WHERE they might REALLY
be )… possibly heard Brendan say some things that haven’t
surfaced yet.
I keep focusing on Brendan (and yes, I leave Darrell Willis out of it for obvious reasons), because it was his crew that died. Marty Cole is a true insider in the Prescott Fire Department and he is unlikely to cross the “Red Line”, which is very similar to the “Blue Line”, only for firemen…I’m just sayin’.
I don’t think the Blue Ridge Hotshots or anyone just standing near Brendan would have the information.
So Elizabeth gets the BR unit logs and they confirm her belief that Granite Mountain was moving in order to possibly save lives. Setting aside the merits of that, how could she say such a thing? The only way that really makes sense is if BR was asked to do the same thing. So was there a request to BR that indirectly tells us what was requested of GM?
Well… if you read carefully to Elizabeth’s
‘codetalk’… I think what she was really
trying to say ( including that stupid question )
is that she now has proof that a Type 1
Hotshot who was in Yarnell that same day
would ‘ignore the rules’ in order to save
lives ( E.g. Fellow firefighters in trouble ).
That’s the interpretation she is probably
putting onto Frisby or Brown’s statement
in a Unit log about going on the ground
rescue mission when they describe that
moment with ‘Fuck it… let’s go for it’.
That seems to be the ‘translation’ of her
comments above… but I’m not sure I
have the full hang of her style of
‘speaking in riddles’ yet.
If that is what she is talking about… I think
she fails to grasp that ( while certainly
risky ) the decision to go on the rescue
mission was actually NOT going to ‘violate
standard WFF rules’ nearly as much as
what GM did.
They were going to ‘travel in the black’
out to that ridge… and nothing else. I’m
sure if they hadn’t been able to do that
( all the way ) they would have turned back.
Ranger 58 was hovering right over their
destination and had ‘eyes on them’ the
entire way. We still don’t know for sure
whether Ranger 58 advised them that
the trails were ‘all black’ out that way
before they even left on the mission.
It was a risk… but the rules WERE in place.
Nope, not buying that. She is a lawyer and words mean things. Saying that GM was moving to save lives because BR was later willing to do the same is a non sequitur, would be jumping to a conclusion without evidence. Now she was hinting there was evidence for GM’s motivation in those logs. She specifically said the logs confirmed her view that GM moved to save lives. She was using the later example to refute the suggestion that WFF do not do that. if it involves breaking the rules.
Okay. Whatever.
Not going to play THIS game.
There are enough ‘riddles’
to go around without someone
now just ‘hinting’ at something
in a Unit log and leaving us
to guess what she really
means.
I guess we’ll just wait and see
if she really ever DOES say
exactly what she meant.
I hope she does.
This is covered in the Az Republic today. Their story is about the rescue mission solely. The logs came via ADOSH, and were significantly redacted by the USFS. Wonder if these will be posted anytime soon.
Well… it’s exactly
what I thought,
then. The log
just describes
some of their
incremental
decision making
as they worked
they way out
to where Ranger
58 was hovering
over what they
first thought
was the
deployment site.
This article doesn’t really tell us anything we hadn’t already figured out over here.
Matter of fact… the article is wrong about some things.
All THREE of
the PNF hires Clawson, Hulburd and Yowell were with Frisby and Brown, and not just two of them as reported in the article.
Copy that. The reason I leave Willis out of this
particular equation is because even though it’s
also perfectly possible Willis heard the same
‘everything’ that took place from (say) 3:50 to
4:20 PM over the intra-crew frequency…
…we KNOW ( for sure ) that Brendan did.
It’s possible Willis only heard SOME of it… but
we KNOW Brendan heard ALL of it.
At the very least… I wish Brendan would come out
and tell us we are all full of shit… and that he
never heard anything other than what he has
already reported hearing… and that even the
official reports are WRONG when they say he
heard ALL of the crucial ‘decision making’
that day.
FYI – In the article I read a few days ago in Prescott, it said than Brendan would remain in Prescott for his new job with the WFF, which is what my post said.
I have some real concerns about Brendan. From everything I have picked up on to date, Brendan has not told anyone, or at least anyone who is making the information public, everything he knows about what happened on the Yarnell Hill Fire.
The reason I mentioned Brendan in my previous post was an attempt to put more of the spotlight on him, and to remind everyone that Brendan knows things he isn’t hasn’t made public, and I think he owes it to his crew, and everyone who was paying his salary on the Yarnell Hill Fire to report everything he knows about what happened on that fire. To the public…to you and to me, period.
Elizabeth has commented in the past that we should be careful about putting anyone who was there that day on the spot to tell what they know. I on the other hand, do not think you can make an omelet with breaking some eggs, and I am willing to break as many eggs as necessary to get the truth. The public both needs to know what happened on the Yarnell Hill Fire, and the public has a right to know everything that happened on the Yarnell Hill Fire. Period.
I did not intend to put a big spotlight on the WFFF, yes…I am really glad they are doing what they are doing…kudos to them. But no…I don’t believe setting Brendan up from Prescott, to travel around the country to raise money through donations by continually reliving his experiences or putting him forward as a grief counselor for future wildland firefighting victims is the right thing to do…for anyone. It is just my opinion, and this is after all, an opinion blog.
Secondly, the most important (I thought) part of my comment was to address to BOMBSHELL that RTS dropped in his previous comment about Eric Marsh. Especially the part of his comment that stated he has more examples to come of Eric Marsh being willing to take risks that no other hotshot crew bosses were in order to make some dumbass line overhead happy.
The implications of those revelations, in conjunction with conclusions that both WTKTT and I arrived at regarding the significance of Eric Marsh’s recent employee evaluations is, I believe, the answer to the question we have all been asking, “Why did the Granite Mountain Hotshots die?”
And I want to state one more time, my absolute conviction based on all of my experience, training, and background that the employee appraisal that Eric Marsh got was the beginning of his permanent removal as GMHS Superintendent, and quite possibly the termination of his employment with the Prescott Fire Department, if he did not change his ways ASAP as far as Darrell Willis was concerned. And that meant accepting the fact that Darrell Willis, Chief Fraijo and the City of Prescott was playing fast and loose with the rules. Darrell Willis was going to replace Eric Marsh with Jesse Steed because Jesse Steed was willing to play ball and sign what Willis put in front of him. Period.
Finally, I did say in my comment that “I presumed” Brendan was surrounded on a daily basis by a “support group”, and that was one of the big reasons why I thought he should have stayed with the Prescott Fire Department. And none of the former Granite Mountain Hotshots who are now full-time Prescott firemen were qualified to be firemen when they were on the hotshot crew, but that is the point of the GMHS, they were a training and recruiting platform for almost all future Prescott firemen. I have the impression there are a couple of dozen former GMHS who are now firemen.
And I don’t think anybody told Brendan he did not have a future with the Prescott Fire Department. Prescott, Arizona, and the surrounding area loves the Granite Mountain Hotshots, their memory and their sacrifice. I don’t think any chicken shit city manager would have risked the wrath of the community by not doing the right thing by Brendan. But hey…once again, that is just my opinion…for whatever it is worth.
Besides, the wrath of the Citizens of Prescott is beside the point. Law enforcement and fire fighters take care of their own….period. The Prescott Fire Department would have taken care of Brendan. Just as almost every other uniquely identifiable group almost always takes care of their own.
Two things, unrelated to asparagus:
1. RTS, I am sorry that I offended you with my post a couple of days ago. I was not trying to be “Queen” – I only offered my comments because I know that so many of the families of the men who died read on-line media sources like this one, and I thought I had a few relevant comments to share. I apologize for offending you, RTS. I have the highest respect for you, and I remain grateful that you share your time and insight.
2. For the *current* Hotshots reading this thread, here is a question: Would YOU personally be willing to violate the 10 and 18 if your grandmother was in danger of burning to death if you did not violate the 10 and 18 to try to get to her to save her?
That is the stupidest question I have ever heard. The 10 and 18 deal directly with wild land Fire not saving people or buildings.
If the people you are responsible for are in trouble you would do what you could but violating safety would just add you to the fatality list. Untrained and unequipped people running into a building usually don’t come out. You make that decision on your own you don’t drag a crew with you. I do not know of any wild land fire where anyone tried to save some one and broke the rules. They are not designed for that scenario……….
However, a related scenario might have been in play at the YHF. Was Granite Mountain asked to move to Yarnell for structure protection, or for evacuations AND structure protection. The exact nature of Musser’s request is not known publicly. No, they were not going to run into burning buildings, but being asked to help with evacuations might have increased the pressure to move to Yarnell.
I believe this question has gone around the room
before and while we still do NOT know the exact
nature of the request(s) that went out to
Marsh/Steed/crew ( but we know they did )… I
think the consensus before with regards to ‘helping
(specifically) with evacuations’ was…
How in the heck are 19 guys on foot with heavy
packs and chainsaws and pulaskis supposed
to help ‘evacuate’ anyone… without becoming
just 19 more people without transportation
that would then need to be evacuated as well?
If they really needed help with ‘evacuations’… then
all the resources to do that were NOT 2 miles
away sitting on a ridge… they were all assembled
in the Ranch House Restaurant parking lot, a
stone’s throw from where they were needed.
4 empty Hotshot Crew Carriers ( could hold
at least 40 people ).
1 other complete Type 1 Hotshot crew
( Blue Ridge – 20 guys ).
About a dozen other ‘fire vehicles’.
Water trucks, engines, etc. etc.
Dozens of other firefighters.
The list goes on.
If someone really did insist that 19 guys 2 miles
away were somehow needed for evacuations
with all that horsepower already in town that
ended up just standing around in a parking lot
not doing much of anything ( because everyone
pretty much did get out safely before GM got
anywhere near that ranch where they, themselves
would have just been trapped even if they made
it there )…
…then why didn’t they also ‘call them off’ when
it became obvious they weren’t going to be
needed?
That all comes down to communications, of
course ( or lack thereof ) and the mystery that
remains from that day which is WHY ( no matter
what the reasoning was for moving ) they felt they
needed to be almost purposely ‘secretive’ about
what they were doing.
Brendan himself might not even have ALL the
answers here… but he surely has some that
we haven’t heard yet.
I don’t know all the answers to your questions. One might be BR said no. On the other hand, ask Gary. He has said the same thing, so I doubt it is a ridiculous thought. To this day, Gary says “evacuations and structure protection”.
mike… it’s all still possible. Yarnell
was a known ‘retirement’ area.
Everyone in that part of Arizona knew
the saying about Yarnell…
“It’s a place where the 70 years olds
take care of the 80 year olds and
the 60 year olds take care of the
those in their 70’s”.
So yea… it still may be all about
what fire command THOUGHT
might happen ( total disaster )
without maximum evacuation
from support from any FF who
could walk and was at least
wearing some Nomex.
The biggest head-scratcher for
me throughout ALL of this struggle
to find out the real motivations
that day is WHY anyone would be
so afraid to admit that that is
exactly what was going down
that afternoon.
Sure… it would change the post-accident conversation to
all about whether WFF should
EVER be pretending to be
structural… but why would anyone
think it would DIMINISH the
memory of those 19 men?
For most of the public at large I
would think the knowledge that that
is EXACTLY what they were trying
to do would do nothing but make
them even greater ‘heroes’ than
the honors already bestowed.
So I really don’t understand all
the secrecy… and all the reluctance
to talk about June 30, 2013.
I really don’t understand what
everyone is so afraid others might
‘find out’.
Nothing brings them back… but
their living relatives, children,
and future grandchildren still
deserve to know what was
really going on that day.
Bob, perhaps I was unclear. Allow me to try to explain things differently:
I just received today the Unit Logs from the Blue Ridge Hotshots. These documents confirmed my view that the reason why the GM guys left the black is to try to save some human lives.
Some people claim that the Granite Mountain Hotshots violated the 10 or 18 by leaving the black (and leaving the black without a lookout, without well-working radios, etc.), so my question was designed to ask:
Would you leave the black if you thought you could be saving someone’s life by getting to them more quickly by virtue of leaving the black, *and* you thought that you could beat the fire through the valley (because you did not realize that the wind would shift 180 degrees)?
Apologies – it is still a very awkward question.
Elizabeth –
I had this same discussion about 3 months ago with RTS and Bob. I was told then the idea of “risk a life to save a life” was something structural firefighters might do, but not really the case for WFF. But I suspect you might get a range of responses. But I bet nearly all if not all hotshot supers would say no.
Your comment obviously raises the question – did BR get asked and turn them down. Remember Marsh or Steed initially told Musser no, ask BR.
Mike, the most recent documentation that I have unearthed will refute RTS and Bob.
“Fuck it – let’s go for it.” That is a direct quote from a very senior Hotshot crew leader (not Marsh or a GM guy) who was about to take a huge risk (seemingly in violation of the 10 and 18) to try to save someone’s life.
If you are talking about the YHF – that means BR (hotshot, not GM). That likely means Frisby or the captain (Trew?). Are you talking in reference to trying to save GM or going into Yarnell – sounds like it could be referring to the former.
One of the things I’ve been
taking notes on here ( but
wasn’t quite ready to post
about ) is more followup
on the PNF Helmet-Cam guys
Hulburd, Clawson and Yowell.
I’ve been trying to nail down
EXACTLY when the ‘ground
rescue’ party was either
requested and/or launched.
Near as I can tell so far… that
moment happened when the
Range 58 DPS chopper
THOUGHT it had found the
deployment site out there
near the anchor point… but
the DPS chopper pilot did
not consider it safe to land
at either the original helispot
( still too hot ) or anywhere
else nearby.
I think THAT is the moment
the coordinates were sent
out over the radio… and at
that moment it was either
someone try to reach them
on the ground or wait an
unknown amount of time
until it was safe for Ranger
58 to land at the helispot.
So yea… given that
scenario… I could imagine
all FIVE of those men who
would take the risk ( Frisby,
Brown, Hulburd, Clawson
and Yowell ) ALL saying…
“Fuck it… let’s go for it.”
If anyone was alive… they
could be the ones loading
the lift-gurneys up as the
THREE Medevac choppers
that were actually already
arriving up at the helibase
hovered overhead.
It was worth the risk… but
only Frisby and Brown really
knew the way up there…
so they led the way.
It was not that irrational a
decision. Frisby and Brown
had worked that area all day
and they knew they could
take it in ‘steps’.
If they could reach the Youth
Camp… they could then get
onto the cutover road that
they were dozing/clearing
all day.
If they could make it to
the Sesame area… they
could make it up to where
Sesame trail met the clearings.
Then they could just take
every part of the trail west
one bit at a time… and could
still turn around if they had to.
They knew the way.
They had a visual that day
all the way to where Ranger
58 was ‘hovering’ over what
it thought was the deployment
site.
No one wanted to die that
day. Not even them. It was
a reasonable risk with
just incremental decisions
to make on the way and
so they went for it.
I would have said, “no”. Nothing was more important than the safety of my crew and although I have said I was conditioned to “fight fire AGRESSIVELY but provide for safety first”, I never wanted to go home to face Richard Allred or Orlando Romero without the hotshot crew they entrusted to me intact (a few medevac’s here and there were unavoidable, but that was acceptable).
I am responsible for 18 other guys we are a line building crew not a engine crew or a sheriff department search and rescue. Wild Land Fire Fighters do not have the equipment or training to deal with structure Fires or rescue operations. That is why Urban interface is causing such a problem. It has to intermingle two types of Fir Fighting each one has a separate responsibility.
Granit Mountain was not responsible for the building fires they were not equipped to do so.
Also a good 2 hour hike to town. Taking that kind of risk is not what wild land fire fighters are trained to do. So my answer is NO all hot shot crews are trained in wild land fire and the 10 and 18. Its not like 911……………..
AMEN!
Regarding Marsh and the ALLEGED GMHS bad decsions with good outcomes attitude, the two fires where two separate HS Supts commented on Marsh seemingly always wanting to ‘ONE-UP-YOU’, they were the 2009 Station Fire on the Angeles NF and the 2011 Gladiator Fire on the Prescott NF.
The Supt. on the Station Fire said that Marsh and the GMHS was doing some fairly unconventional and unsafe tactics and GETTING AWAY WITH IT. He said they should have known better. He said he counseled Marsh on what he was doing, but it appeared that it did no good because he/they kept at it.
Reply to gary olson post on February 14, 2014 at 3:58 am
>> gary olson said…
>>
>> Those survivors, or the families of those victims, will have their own
>> friends, family, clergy, peer counselors, and communities to turn to.
>> Do you think Mr. Donut has the mental, emotional, educational, or
>> professional background, experiences or training to be a traumatic
>> event counselor?
I believe the answer there would obviously be no… unless Vicki’s
organization is also going to sponsor Brendan for a complete round
of classes to obtain the training/degrees normally required/needed
for any kind of direct (professional) grief counseling.
Actually… not to cast any asparagus on Vicki’s organization… but looking
at her ‘staff’ page… it doesn’t appear as if the kind of professional training
or degrees normally expected for such a declared profession are that
much in evidence anywhere… and that itself perhaps brings up another
possible ‘lesson to be learned’ from the Yarnell tragedy.
If Brendan felt he had to turn to THIS organization to get ‘the help he really
needed’… and there weren’t any other ‘professional’ alternatives readily available
to him via either the Prescott Fire Department or the WFF organization(s)…
…I would say that’s a problem that needs to be addressed right there.
Look at this published ‘outreach/counseling’ page at the Wildland Firefighter
Foundation website.and just read some of the actual ‘professional’ advice
they are trying to give to someone who just lost a loved one in a fire…
http://www.wffoundation.org/SectionIndex.asp?SectionID=11
Direct Quotes from this published ‘professional’ advice…
“Choose a trigger word that feels somewhat like a reprimand to you.
Mine is bogus which reminds me that it is bogus to practice negative behavior.
When you catch yourself daydreaming, slap your hands together sharply and firmly say your focus word. The hand clap will sting a little, the noise of your hands clapping provide audio as well as your voice saying your trigger word giving you a clear reminder that you had checked out. Practice doing this now. The action will bring you back into focus quickly.”
Are you kidding me?
If this really is the accepted ( or the ONLY? ) ‘go to’ organization for WFF
incident survivors… I would say this is a situation that needs some
attention all by itself.
Vicki saw a need in the WFF community… and she set about filling that
need in an honorable way. Kudos to her ( and her son, who helps her
run the organization ).
But if that’s supposed to be the OFFICIAL ‘goto grief counseling’ organization
for all of the WFF firefighting community… well… there’s ANOTHER big problem
that needs to be solved right there… right NOW.
>> gary also wrote…
>>
>> Being a sympathetic victim only goes so far. Does that
>> sound like a healthy thing for him to be repeatedly doing, or a viable long
>> term plan, or realistic career path?
Only Brendan can answer that for himself, I suppose… but I hear ya.
Simply having ‘gone through’ something does NOT automatically mean
you are qualified to ‘help others get through’ a traumatic event.
Something tells me that the ‘stay in Prescott and be a hero’ scenario
you were imagining for Brendan simply wasn’t being offered… and he
had to do SOMETHING.
He wasn’t qualified to be a structural firefighter… and as soon as it became
obvious the GM Hotshots will NOT be reconstituted I think he was being
gently informed he might need to seek some other employment.
Speaking of ‘gently informed he might need to seek some other employment’…
Everyone DOES realize that that ’employee evaluation’ with the not-so-subtle
WARNINGS in it that Willis shot Marsh’s way just 57 days before the
Yarnell incident was issued WHILE Marsh was already ‘relieved of his
duties’… right?
Willis’ direct request/directive to Eric Marsh in his May 3 Employee Evaluation…
“I also would like you to begin the mentoring of Jesse Steed as your
replacement giving him opportunities and the freedom to lead the crew and you
take a more hands off approach.”
So on May 3, 2013, Willis is TELLING Marsh that he wants him to BEGIN
the ‘mentoring’ process for Jesse Steed to replace Marsh as the ‘Supervisor’
for Granite Mountain.
That would indicate that Willis himself thought ( even on May 3, 2013 ) that
Steed had a ways to go before he would be ‘ready’ to be the Granite Mountain
Supervisor…
…but on that very date ( May 3 )… Jesse Steed was ALREADY the ‘acting
Supervisor’ for Granite Mountain and was ALREADY the one who Willis trusted
just 10 DAYS earlier ( April 23 ) to sign the ‘certification’ document that Marsh
had been refusing to sign.
Willis has said in subsequent interviews and emails surrounding this
‘document signing’ frap that on April 23, when the certification document
was signed, Steed was ‘fully qualified’ to be the (acting) Supervisor for Granite
Mountain and ( also according to Willis ) fully qualified to be signing the
‘certification’ documents for that group…
…but just 10 DAYS after Steed signed that document on April 23, here
he is telling Marsh he wants him to ( sometime soon ) simply BEGIN the
‘mentoring’ process so that Steed WOULD be qualified as his replacement
at some point in the future.
If Willis really didn’t believe Jesse Steed was already fully capable of being
the Granite Mountain Supervisor and not in need of someone to ‘BEGIN
the mentoring process’ for that…
…then why would Willis have been OK with Jesse actually being appointed
to that very position on April 18, 2013, when Eric Marsh was ‘relieved’ of
the position because of an injury and placed on ‘light duty’?
Willis also saw to it that Prescott FF Tom Cooley was also designated
‘Temporary Captain’ for Granite Mountain while Steed was the ‘acting
Superintendent’. That also seems to mean that Willis didn’t think any
of the current GM ‘squad bosses’ were either capable or qualified for
the ‘Captain’ position, either… which is why he must of felt the need to
bring Cooley ‘from the outside’ for that temporary ‘Captain’ assignment.
It is ( was ) a very strange situation.
April 18, 2013 – Marsh had been refusing to sign a GM certification document,
suffers a motorbike accident, and is relieved of his position as ‘Superintendent’
for Granite Mountain. GM Captain Jesse Steed is appointed ‘acting Superintendent’
for the Granite Mountain Hotshots, but no one from inside GM is promoted
to ‘acting Captain’. Willis goes ‘outside’ GM and brings in Prescott FF
Tom Cooley to be the ‘acting Captain’ instead.
April 23, 2013 – ( 5 days later ) – The GM ‘certification’ document is signed by
‘acting Superintendent’ Jesse Steed. It is also signed the same day by
Darrell Willis and Chief Dan Fraijo.
May 3, 2013 – ( 10 days later ) – Willis types up his ‘Employee Evaluation’
of Marsh and specifically tells Marsh he wants him to BEGIN the process
of ‘mentoring’ Jesse Steed to (someday) be able to replace Marsh as
the GM Superintendent… even though on this very day Steed is
ALREADY ‘acting Superintendent’ for GM and has already signed the
GM ‘certification’ document(s) for 2013. So ( in Willis’ mind? ) Steed
WAS ‘fully ready’ to be a Type 1 Hotshot supervisor to the point where
he would sign the documents Willis wanted him to sign… but Willis
also felt he was NOT ready to ‘actually lead the men’ and wanted
Marsh to BEGIN the ‘mentoring process’? Weird.
June 18, 2013 – ( 1 month+ later ) Eric Marsh is no longer on ‘light duty’ and
is again ‘acting Superintendent’ for GM as they work the Doce Fire.
June 30, 2013 – ( 12 days later ) – GM agrees to accept an assignment on
their scheduled day off and work the Yarnell Hill Fire where Darrell Willis
has already been hired as a ‘Division Supervisor’ the night before and will
be working as SPGS2 on Sunday on the same fire.
WTKTT<
" not to cast any asparagus" – you meant aspersions right?
Yes. Sorry. That wasn’t a typo. I just thought everyone would ‘get that’.
Actually… I probably didn’t say near enough up above about how Vicki deserves all the kudos in the world for what she is trying to do. She saw a genuine need in the WFF community and she has set about trying to fill that need with honor and every best intention.
My only point was that if her organization is now considered the primary goto group for professional grief counseling following WFF fatalities… then that situation probably needs to be looked at.
Shit, at least I am not casting asparagus in my posts on this thread…. 🙂 (I believe WTKTT was the guy who criticized ME for not reading my draft posts before posting them here.)
Also, WTKTT, I am not a therapist, but I think the technique you cited and then strongly criticized from the WFF organization is a valid behavioral therapy or CBT technique. I have not “googled” it to be sure I am correct, but I am pretty sure it is a valid technique used to deal with struggles with recurrent/pervasive thoughts, for example. So, for example, if I am dealing with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and one of my symptoms is that I get “stuck” in my own mind and start reliving the fire and saying to myself “if only I had done [x],” and I cannot break out of that line of thinking, such that I am no longer doing well functioning hour by hour, minute by minute, and I am instead stuck in my mind, reliving that day and those thoughts, one way to try to stem those “intrusive” thoughts can be the technique apparently posted on the website that you then cited and critiqued.
Again, I am not a therapist or a trained mental health professional, but I vaguely recall one of my close relatives who is a psychiatrist telling me something about this technique and “intrusive”/obsessive thoughts.
Reply to Elizabeth post on Feb 14, 2014 at 1:16 pm
>> Elizabeth said…
>> Again, I am not a therapist or a trained mental
>> health professional,
Neither am I… and (apparently) neither is anyone
listed as being ‘on staff’ at the Wildland Firefighter
Foundation ( see their website ).
Also… the ‘professional advice’ quote at the link
above is not even ‘attributed’ to anyone or
signed by anyone… even though it is written
from the first person.
The organization probably DOES have access
to professional therapists and whatnot… or at
least could probably help someone find someone
to help them in that way if needed… and
they do not directly advertise themselves as being
in that (specific) business… but in case you
missed the point of my post…
If this particular agency is being identified as the
primary ‘goto’ place by the WFF community for
people who have just suffered a fire-related
traumatic event I think that would be
mis-characterization of even what THEY say their
intended ‘mission’ is.
It’s a wonderful organization. It really is.
I probably didn’t say enough up above about what
Vicki has been able to do with the best of
intentions. She saw a need in the WFF community
and she went right about filling it with all the
good intentions she could muster. Kudos to
her ( and her son who helps run the foundation ).
I really mean that.
But it is what it is… and it’s not what it’s not.
I hope people don’t confuse the two.
Reply to RTS post on February 14, 2014 at 9:37 am
>> RTS said…
>>
>> ” not to cast any asparagus”
>> you meant aspersions right?
Yes. I did. Sorry. It was not a typo. I don’t know where I
first picked that phrase up but I guess I thought most
people would understand what I meant.
And I did mean it.
I am NOT casting ‘aspersions’ on the Wildland
Firefighter Foundation. I think it’s a wonderful
organization that fills a need in the WFF community…
…but all the talk lately has made it sound like these
people are professional therapists themselves… or
directly engaged in that line of work… and that is
simply NOT the case. That’s not what they do ( or
even advertise as one of their services ).
First of all, Elizabeth is absolutely correct about the trigger and clap technique. It is a variation of a well-known behavioral modification psychological technique. While it sounds a bit silly, it probably does work to some degree. Patients learn they do not have to be controlled by their negative thoughts.
I do not think the WFF has ever presented itself as an alternative to professional psychiatric advice. Rather it seems to be a place that provide some funds, a place to help find resources, and a place for firefighters and families to connect with another so they do not feel so isolated. During the aftermath of the tragedy, I noticed how many wildland firefighters recommended the WFF as a place to send donations. I did so, and I was pleasantly surprised by 2 things. First, I did not receive some useless trinket or T-shirt. Second, I have NEVER received another fundraising request. I am already inclined to donate again.
Finally, I think Brendan McDonough probably felt the need to escape Prescott. Imagine being somewhere where everything reminded you of the tragedy and everyone felt sorry for you and wondered how you were. It would not take long for it to drive you nuts. Ironically, I do not think he will get that pity at the WFF. Too many others in the same boat. And he won’t be a professional counselor, but just someone to talk to and relate to. I hope he does some real good there.
WELL RTS…if that story is true, it certainly would cause me to re-evaluate everything I have ever said or thought about Eric Marsh. I am not saying I doubt your veracity or the veracity of those who told you the story…I am only leaving the door open to the possibility that what happened may have been misinterpreted on misreported somewhere along the line by somebody. ESPECILLY if you have more examples…OMG!
Which goes to prove what I have said before, and what I have thought numerous times…I regret ever getting involved in this controversy in the first place, because I don’t have a clue what really happened on the Yarnell Hill Fire. Only a couple of people do, and apparently they aren’t talking.
Speaking of people who aren’t talking. I do have some thoughts about Mr. Donut and his new job. Let me see if I have this straight? He quit a job where he had the very real possibility, if not the guarantee of becoming a full time Prescott Fireman with health benefits, a dental plan, a pension, early retirement, status within the community as a professional who gets to ride around in a big red fire truck with his status as the Lone Survivor, and the town hero? He was not only surrounded by a support group (I presume) on a daily basis, but he would never had to return to the fire line. I can’t believe the Prescott Fire Department is ever going to field another hotshot crew…brush disposal crew…maybe, it depends on the availability of federal grant money, and their lack of shame…but who knows? In any case, Mr. Donut would never had to go out again, he would have been riding around in a big red fire truck checking smoke detectors or fire hydrants for water pressure or waxing the big red fire truck or whatever.
And he went to work for a 2 person (?) wildland firefighter charity in Boise, Idaho, from Prescott Arizona? What exactly will he do for the WFF when he wakes up tomorrow morning…take calls or make calls to potential donors? Sure, he will travel, OCCASIONALLY…to repeatedly tell sympathetic groups around the country about his experiences on the Yarnell Hill Fire (like a traveling sideshow or a 2 headed firefighter) to solicit donations for the WFF while he waits for the next wildland firefighter tragedy so he can offer his support? And good luck getting hired by the Prescott Fire department again. The assholes down at city hall closed the book on Mr. Donut with a great sigh of relief…one problem…GONE!
Those survivors, or the families of those victims, will have their own friends, family, clergy, peer counselors, and communities to turn to. Do you think Mr. Donut has the mental, emotional, educational, or professional background, experiences or training to be a traumatic event counselor? Being a sympathetic victim only goes so far. Does that sound like a healthy thing for him to be repeatedly doing, or a viable long term plan, or realistic career path?
I know I am a negative person by nature. Not only do I see the glass as half empty…but I think you shouldn’t drink it from it because somebody probably pissed in it. BUT…I am never disappointed by life…and sometimes I am actually pleasantly surprised when things actually go well, or work out for the best in the end. So who knows? I am obviously clueless, I give up!
For the Arizona residents in here; as a matter of jurisdiction, can anyone tell me what responsibility the local municipal fire department has in fire suppression on state land in Arizona?
I ask this because, where I live here in the east, (New York State) we have no un-incorporated areas. Every inch of the state is covered by some form of municipal fire department. Maybe paid or volunteer or a combination, but even in remote areas there is a local level municipal fire department receiving tax money to provide fire suppression services for it. (State pays land taxes on it’s holdings to local government)
We have some significant tracts (hundreds of thousands of acres each) of state lands and even on those tracts, the local municipal fire department is obligated by state law to respond to a fire there. (We have a very minimal amount of federal lands) The State does by law require itself to maintain a firefighting force (Minimal) to respond to wildfires, however the initial attack agency will almost always be the local municipal fire department.
The local fire department is not required by law to transfer command to the State when they arrive, however most will simply because the State then becomes responsible for the financial cost and legal liabilities. “Deeper Pockets”.
Elizabeth,
OMG> So, it sounds to me that you are kinda claiming Queen-of-the Hill status and have self-appointed yourself as the ultimate arbiter of what we should or should not bring out into the open.
It’s pretty clear that you’re referring to me as the “at least one person on this thread” bringing into the open instances of PRIOR BAD DECISIONS WITH GOOD OUTCOMES or however you chose to describe it.
And as far as the psycho-babble goes, there is NONE of us current or prior WFF “OVERESTIMAT[ING] any missteps made by those who died that might have led to their deaths while UNDERESTIMATING the normal or typical compliance with the rules, guidelines, best practices, etc. that are alleged to have been violated by the victims of the tragedy.” Nope, not doing that because we all EXPERINCED ithem and saw them, and CAUTIONED them on SEVERAL occasions. But to no avail. As TWO separate HS Superintnedents on TWO sepaprate fires put it “it was always like Marsh was trying to ‘one-up you.’
The ATV issue? If it was in that bad of shape and that unreliable and that unsafe, then they should have never taken it on the fireline. That shows to me more of the PRIOR BAD DECISIONS WITH GOOD OUTCOMES mode they operated in. And it speaks to their attitude toward safety in general. Like the sleeves rolled up issue, it’s an ATTITUDE thing.
I chose and choose to be anonymous and to REMAIN anonymous for good reasons, so get over it. It ain’t gonna happen!
I have no problem bringing this stuff up and airing it. The SAIT and SAIR completely ignored these HUMAN FACTORS issues. I’m sure the families, friends, and loved ones of those men would much rather know the truth rather than the lies and coverups the SAIT presented.
I have no idea what HS you’re taking to but it was pretty well known by many of their peers regarding their continuing pattern of BAD DECISIONS WITH GOOD OUTCOMES.
For example, I ALLEGE that on the 2011 Horseshoe Two Fire, several HS Crews, including Marsh and GMHS, were given a downhill line construction with fire below assignment (Watch Out #9). All but one of the HS crews refused the assignment (with an optional tactic). And gues which HS Crew was the one HS Crew that did not refuse the assignment? It was the GMHS. I once again ALLEGE that Marsh’s comment to the other HS Supts. was “hold on now, let’s reassess this one, I THINK WE CAN PULL THIS OFF.” CLEARLY, this suggests PRIOR BAD DECISIONS WITH GOOD OUTCOMES. They’ve gotten away with it before, so let’s try it again.
I’m using inductive logic at this point. Inductive reasoning is reasoning in which the premises seek to supply strong evidence for the truth of the conclusion. Furthermore, unlike deductive arguments, inductive reasoning allows for the possibility that the conclusion is false, even if all of the premises are true. Source: Wikipedia.
” the fact that I have not heard a single tangible, non-anonymous thing about any sort of specific prior or pattern of dangerous/risky act(s) says something.” Really? Just what DOES it say?
I have NO problem making these ALLEGATIONS. Stand by for others.
RTS… I think it’s almost eerie that you use the phrase…
“I think we can pull this off.”
I have listened and listened and listened to the communications
that were accidentally captured that day and at some point I
became sure that if Christopher MacKenzie’s video had lasted
but another 20 seconds or so…. we would have heard Marsh
or Steed ( or BOTH ) say…
“I think we can pull this off… but if we’re going we better
go right now”.
There are still ( at least ) two people still alive that can probably
verify whether anything like that was spoken just prior to them
leaving the safe black at 4:04 PM.
Brendan McDonough ( known to be listening at that time. )
Darrell Willis ( said he was listening at that time ).
The phrase that got me (assuming this is close to a quote) is “hold on now, let’s reassess this one….”. Sounds like what have been his thought process after initially turning Musser down.
mike… you may be exactly right.
We first learned of Musser’s request to GMIHC
to “spare resources for Yarnell” in the ADOSH
report following THEIR interview with Musser
( the SAIR never mentioned it ).
However… even the ADOSH report says that
Musser did NOT know “exactly who he was
talking to”. According to Musser, it might have
been Marsh saying “we are committed to the
black… call Blue Ridge”… but it might have
been Steed.
ADOSH page 18…
Shortly thereafter, Operations Section Chief 2
Musser radioed GMIHC and asked if they could
spare resources to assist in Yarneil. Either Marsh
or GMIHC Captain Steed responded that they were
committed to the black and that Musser should
contact BRIHC working in the valley (during his
interview Musser stated that he wasn’t sure who
he was talking with).
Let’s assume for a moment that it WAS Steed
who actually “shot back” to Musser before
Marsh had a chance to say anything.
Steed had already heard OPS 1 Abel tell BOTH
of them to “Hunker and be safe ( in the black )”
and Steed didn’t hear Marsh disagree or voice
another plan… so when Musser called out
directly to GMIHC ( and not DIVSA )… Steed just
shot back quickly and told Musser what he
he really, truly understood their current plan to be
from what he had heard OPS1 Abel tell them to do.
Then, all of sudden, ( and right after Steed’s
response to OPS2 Musser ) Marsh calls Steed on
the private intra-crew and PERHAPS says
something like…
“Hold on now… let’s reassess this one.”
THAT is when the whole ‘comfort level’
conversations began which eventually led to
to the ‘alternate decision’ ( E.g. I think we can
do this ).
It WOULD explain what happened, and the
series of conversations that we DO know about.
Marsh had been fulfilling Darrell Willis’ directive
to him from the employee evaluation and had
been (quote) “letting Steed run the crew” all
day… but that call from Musser was a ‘direct
request’ from an OPS at the fire command level.
Maybe Willis’ other “I expect excellent performance”
directive from the same employee evaluation just
57 days earlier was now “ringing in Marsh’s ears”.
Maybe Marsh thought Steed’s quick response
to an OPS level request was ‘too hasty’… and
now here come all the private “Hold on now…
let’s reassess this one” and “let’s see what your
comfort level really is” discussion(s).
There may have then been even ANOTHER
request in there from someone else just
shortly after that ( Willis? Someone else? )
which just ‘upped’ the pressent and then led to
Marsh’s known statements to Steed…
“I could just feel this comin’, ya know”.
and…
“That’s why I called you BEFORE to ask you
what your comfort level was”.
The “called you BEFORE” quote from Marsh to
Steed still indicates that MacKenzie captured
the SECOND ‘comfort level’ discussion that day.
They talked about this ‘comfort level’ MULTIPLE
times, not just once.
Caveat: This is obviously all conjecture and
an attempt to ‘fill in the blanks’ in a known
series of conversations and ‘decision making’,
but it would make sense.
Marsh called for “let’s reasses this” after Steed
shot back to OPS 2 Musser (quickly) before Marsh
could jump in and before ‘consulting’ with him first.
Again… Brendan McDonough would most certainly
know if this is the way it really went down that day.
DON’T BELIEVE EVERYTHING EVERYONE SAYS……
One of the key questions in all of this is: “Why did the Granite Mountain Hotshots go down into the unburned valley where they ultimately died?” At least one person on this comment thread has indicated his view that the deadly descent can be explained (at least in part) by Eric Marsh’s or Jesse Steed’s alleged excessive risk-taking or “prior dangerous acts,” implying that Eric Marsh and GM had a history of doing unreasonably unsafe or needlessly risky things from which they escaped unharmed, such that they became “emboldened” or such that an abnormal and unreasonable level of risk-taking became their norm, in which they then developed misplaced confidence. While it is possible that this issue or factor could have been at play, I want to make a few points to try to help ensure that this theory is not blindly, prematurely, or relatively factually-baselessly accepted as truth at this point, prior to the revelation or discovery of verifiable facts that would suggest that this actually a factor at play:
1. Cognition: It is generally well-accepted among behavioralists and social scientists/researchers that, in the wake of a tragedy like the Yarnell Hill Fire, there can be a tendency among others in the relevant peer groups (e.g. current or former Hotshots, firefighters, emergency professionals) to OVERESTIMATE any missteps made by those who died that might have led to their deaths while UNDERESTIMATING the normal or typical compliance with the rules, guidelines, best practices, etc. that are alleged to have been violated by the victims of the tragedy. Out of respect for the deceased men, I urge you to keep this well-documented cognitive bias in mind, to avoid the tendency to decide prematurely that the “prior dangerous acts” notion is the right one to believe.
2. Verification: Unless and until someone who is NOT anonymous can point me to one verifiable instance in which Marsh did something that a majority of the reasonable Hotshots with whom I now have e-mail contact would view as needlessly and abnormally risky, I personally believe that it is irresponsible if not needlessly disrespectful to the families of the deceased men to give credit to the “prior dangerous acts” narrative. Lest anyone try to cite GM’s burned UTV/ATV/whatever as evidence of prior or a pattern of risky decision-making, note that the one living person who was *there* when the GM UTV/ATV/whatever burned in a fire does not describe it in a way that suggests “dangerous or risky act.” Rather, as I understand it, the UTV/ATV was in lousy condition, it had been crapping out, and it died the day it burned. When the fire started moving toward it (as it sat there, dead, refusing to start), the GM guys decided that, rather than scamper to figure out how to move it since it would not start (and it was in a relatively inopportune location and it was heavy), they would just leave it, and, if it burned, it burned. Given that it was already non-operational and likely on its last leg, leaving it was not an “accident” or needlessly risky move that bit GM in the ass.
3. Confidentiality: The men who claim to have “inside” information about prior bad or dangerous or needlessly/unreasonably risky decisions by GM know who I am, they know how to reach me ([email protected]), they know my bona fides and qualifications (and I can provide references across the nation), and they know that, if they share verifiable information with me about prior bad acts, and they tell me that they want to remain confidential, I view myself as risking my own professional license if I turn around and violate that confidentiality deliberately. Given my licensing, I believe that I have a far, far more serious obligation to respect any agreed-upon confidentiality than even a reporter or journalist has. Therefore, the fact that not a single witness nor even a single iota of verifiable data or evidence has come to my attention that would suggest “prior dangerous or risky acts” (that I can then try to track down and verify) suggests to me that no such pattern of conduct exists. Everyone knows that I have no dog in this fight, and that my primary goals are to (a) help the folks in the community most directly impacted by the Yarnell Hill Fire get information and transparency so that they can try to process it and get some modicum of closure, and (b) help compile or unearth relevant information for purposes of current hotshots being able to learn all possible lessons from this tragedy to avoid similar tragedies in the future. Given these goals and given that I have a *provable* commitment to confidentiality, the fact that I have not heard a single tangible, non-anonymous thing about any sort of specific prior or pattern of dangerous/risky act(s) says something.
In a quasi-related vein, be aware that every single nationally-known audio forensics expert I have tracked down since Maclean’s, Neill’s, and Gabbert’s horrifying January 19th “news” blog came out has essentially confirmed my view that it is basically a fool’s errand to try to claim “conclusively” the types of things Maclean, Neill, and Gabbert published regarding the 161620 video clip and the Yarnell Gamble video clip. My professional view is that people who are otherwise viewed as credible regarding wildfires (e.g. Gabbert, Maclean, and Neill) have the OBLIGATION to be incredibly careful about publishing what they tout as “new” or “contrary” information, given the emotional toll such pronouncements can have on the grieving families and communities. I am still shaking my head over that debacle, and my heart goes out to the families of the GM guys. I would almost rather they have radio silence than be subject to the emotional roller-coaster of getting “new” and “contrary” information that they then later find out is neither new nor contrary.
If you watch this video, starting at the 2:43 point, tell me who’s buggies those are that almost got burnt up?
http://vimeo.com/48411010
Over on Wildfire Today, someone recently commented on an old thread about a video entitled “Everyone goes home – stories of the Storm King survivors.” It still is on the front page in the comments. The video is about 30 minutes long, but worth your time. It was made in 2012 I believe, and sounds a hopeful note about lessons learned that Yarnell Hill blew all to hell. But it is riveting for its description of the harrowing events. And to hear the superintendent of the Pineville Hotshots describe his feelings on realizing he had lost 9 of his crew – well I already said I would not want the job. He has lived with that for 20 years, and nothing will ever make it go away.
Mike, I’m afraid there are some nuances to my comment that I did not explain very well…or at all. In addition to the general problem that this format does not lend itself to this discussion as well as a face-to-face exchange of ideas would.
There is nothing in the conclusions I stated above that makes me (or I hope anyone else) think any less of Eric Marsh or Jesse Steed as the leaders of wildland firefighters, and those who were ultimately responsible for the safety of their crew. Just as the Pilot-in-Charge (PIC) is ultimately responsible for the safety of the aircraft under their command, or as you have pointed out, the Doctor-in-Charge is ultimately responsible for the patients under their care. I think we all accept the fact that Eric Marsh and Jesse Steed were ultimately responsible for the safety of their crew, that is the obvious factor and perhaps the most important one…but my goal here is to identify as many other casual factors as I can.
What I meant to say is that I do not believe that Eric Marsh, Jesse Steed and to some extent the squad bosses, and senior crew members on their crew believed that their maneuver would place the crew in imminent danger from the flaming front of the Yarnell Hill Fire. Although I’m sure they knew there was some element of risk to their plan, I believe they thought that risk was well within the limits of an acceptable risk, given that wildland firefighting is an inherently dangerous job.
The following is more or less what I think they thought at the time they chose to go down the chute where they ultimately perished.
1. They believed the fire was still moving in a primarily southeast direction directly towards Yarnell rather than burning rapidly in a southerly direction down the valley where it would ultimately intersect with them given their direction and rate of travel.
2. They agreed, decided, chose to go, to the backside of Yarnell to help with evacuations and begin engaging in structure protection even though they knew that was not a “proper” (for the lack of a better word) mission for a hand crew on foot equipped with only hand tools to be doing, especially under those circumstances and conditions. But they allowed themselves to be ordered, talked into, encouraged, strongly suggested to, that it would be a good thing to do under the circumstances to prove their worth to the Good Citizens of Prescott and the cities leaders to reduce the chances their program and jobs would not be axed.
3. They placed to high of a priority on protecting the structures in Yarnell, especially given the fact that very few people had bothered to be “fire wise” and clear a defensible space around their own structures. I believe this was in part due to their priority mission of creating defensible space around structures in Prescott when they weren’t fighting fire. I think this view of the world and their place in it was amplified because they worked for a structural firefighting organization that apparently placed a very high value on a running into burning buildings and laying down your life for structures because you believe that would be the right thing to do as Darrell Willis has repeatedly explained. Darrell Willis’ thoughts, values, and philosophies most certainly did play a very important and probably even a dominating role in creating their culture.
4. They experienced “tunnel vision” due in part to the rapidly escalating situation, the evacuation of Yarnell, and the calls for their help. Their perception of the danger they were actually in and their “situational awareness” (as explained by Dr. Ted Putnam in the “Collapse of Decision Making on Strom King Mountain”) was not able to keep pace with their rapidly changing environment, and the exponential growth of the danger they were actually in. In other words, they thought they could safely reach the ranch based on what they believed the direction and rate of spread of the fire was, rather than what it actually was.
5. They chose to go down the chute (even though chutes have a long and tragic history with wildland firefighters because they are natural chimneys for wildfires) because they believed it was the quickest way to reach the ranch and ultimately the backside of Yarnell where they could help with evacuations and begin structure protection and thereby reach Yarnell ASAP, as they were asked to do. Even though this was most likely not the case because the brush was so thick and the road ultimately curved around to the ranch. I believe this bad decision was caused in part because of their poor briefing, and the fact that no maps, shift plan or overall strategy had been developed to fight the fire. Everyone was going in different directions without any clear supervision or management, (such as the dumb ass from Oregon State Forestry dumb ass who unilaterally overruled a ground commander and dropped on their backfire). I think to say that the fire exceeded the fire’s management teams expectations is a gross understatement. Everything everyone did that day was in reaction to the fire. The fire and chaos was in charge and running the show, and nobody ever got a handle on what was actually happening in real time.
6. I don’t think the deaths of the Granite Mountain Hotshots were caused by any single factor, this tragedy was like almost all other tragedies, and it was a culmination of compounding, cascading, and successive bad decisions by a lot of people, many of which were beyond the comprehension of Eric Marsh and Jesse Steed given their positions and situation in a dynamic and rapidly escalating situation. In short, the management of the fire was a cluster **** from day one, and the Granite Mountain Hotshots and those who loved them paid the ultimate price, not only for their mistakes, but for everyone else’s mistakes as well.
And I believe Eric Marsh and Jesse Steed were squared away wildland firefighters who deserved better management and a better organization to work for other than the Prescott Fire Department.
First, in reference in Bob’s comment above, somehow I don’t think Eric Marsh was interested in advancement in the PFD. The idea that he would even want Willis’ job is almost funny. And the idea that the powers that be would have given it to him probably is too. Remember, his widow said he was 90% hotshot, that was what he wanted to do.
Gary, I can agree with virtually everything in the above comment. And the small things I might not totally agree with are debatable. I am done making comments about the errors that Granite Mountain might have made, I’ve already made too many. I think the people that matter will figure things out, no matter how useless the SAIR was. They were good men trying to do their best. And I know there are a lot of people that miss them very much.
I agree.
I have and still Agree with the same things that Gary stated in his above items.
I have said and will say again There were many factors that caused the fatalities.
They were my brothers as all Hot Shots current and passed and I morn there loss.
Mike-You know well as a Doctor the physical demands of a 43 year old get harder with every passing year. The job Marsh was in was more and more demanding every year. Most Hot Shots have moved on by the time they are 40 and 45 begins to push the limits for most. I am sure Marsh was starting to look for his next step no matter what that was, PDF or some where else. Having been there I can say time has a way of catching up with you. Leaving a job you love is never easy and assumed pressure to do so can way heavily on you. My thoughts.
So I guess 50 isn’t the new 30. No doubt Marsh was nearing the end as far as being a hotshot. He just did not seem to be the paper pusher type.
Mike –I can guarantee you that I was ready to retire at 50.
When I hit my 40’s I no longer was line overhead. I was still healthy as to day but 16 hour shifts and hiking mountains were getting old. As my Dr. always told me I did not take very good care of my body in the past. That’s also why it is mandatory age 55 retirement for wild Land Fire Fighters, or 50 with 25 years. At 50 I had 33 years. No 50 is not the new 30 maybe for a small few.
I posted that video on my FB about 2 weeks before Yarnell. Also posted a video of our yearly shelter deployment using an airboat to simulate the wind
As I have stated before, I worked for the federal government from 1974 – 2006, starting at the bottom of the pile and working up to where I could at least see the top of the pile. Throughout this process, I had just about every kind of supervisor personnel training materials prepare you to be, or prepare you for. In addition, I was a supervisor myself from the time I made hotshot squad boss until I retired as a Supervisory Criminal Investigator working for the USDI BLM Washington Office of Law Enforcement & Security.
That being said, I strongly agree with WTKTT’s assessment of the, “reading between the lines” of Darrell Willis’ narrative. I also agree with other former and current wildland firefighting employees that supervisors can range from marking everything with a mid level grade with a few exceptional marks to marking everything with exceptional marks with a few mid level grades. So not too much should be read into the letter or number grade. That is too easy and more or less automatic depending on the supervisor. In other words, a “mid level” grade from one supervisor can mean a lot more than an “exceptional” grade from another, and it easy to check the blocks. What is highly unusual based on my experiences, is the excessive (a lot more than should be expected) content, and the detail of the narrative. That is not “easy”, or “automatic” for a supervisor to do.
And I don’t think what I am writing here is unique to the federal government or to wildland firefighters. I think what I am saying is probably more or less the same no matter what profession you are in. Supervisors HATE to do employee appraisals and employees HATE to get employee appraisals.
What I do find very unique in the appraisal Willis gave to Marsh are the detailed specifics of the narrative. There are far more specifics in that narrative than I ever got, gave, saw, or heard about in any appraisal during my career, unless that employee (or I) was being put on “notice.”
I don’t know about everybody else out there is cyber space…but if I was Marsh and got his appraisal, I would think I had one foot out the door and the other one on a banana peel (as one of my BLM supervisors told me once, actually, several top managers told me more or less the same thing more than once, most notably, “Gary, you do good work…but you leave to many bodies on the trail!”) and I would start looking for another job, or writing a grievance.
In other words, and I don’t think this is too strong of a word, I am SHOCKED at what Willis wrote about, and to Marsh. It is hard for me to read the appraisal narrative in any other way than it was the first step in separating Eric Marsh from his employment with the City of Prescott, or at the very minimum as a “shot across his bow” that he needed to start playing the game according to former Chief and current Wildlands Division Chief Darrell Willis’ rules OR ELSE. And not only that, but that Division Chief Willis himself had also been put on notice by Chief Frajio, that he had better get a much shorter leash on Marsh because the city manager, mayor, city councilors, or all of the above were right on the verge of deleting the entire division because of Eric Marsh’s endless complaining, and repeated end-runs around them to personnel bitchin’ about crew benefits, and positions or the lack thereof, and implying, if not downright threatening, he was going to use their failure to meet minimum federal hot shot standards to up the ante.
I am willing to listen to everyone who has ever had a boss, or has ever been a boss, to weigh in on this issue. Like I have already said, I think the relationship of all supervisors and employees are more or less the same. What do you think? I don’t think I am giving some unique wildland firefighter inside opinion here.
I will tell you one unique wildland firefighter inside opinion here however. As I have previously stated in comments way-way-way back there, Darrell Willis and I were at one time “friends”, in a very loose sense of the word, and acquaintances in a more accurate sense, as we had mutual friends in the business, and I have a long history and association with Prescott. As you have probably already picked up, ex-hotshot crew bosses from my generation dominate the federal wildland firefighter management ranks (although more and more are retiring each day and have been for some years now), and I know or knew a lot of them, including Tony Sciacca from my days on the fire line.
So here is my inside information, since I am already on anybody who thinks Darrell Willis is a squared away wildland firefighter, and a credit to the wildland firefighter community Grade A **** list. Darrell Willis did not just retire as the Prescott Fire Department Chief, Darrell Willis retired from the Prescott Fire Department after he got cross-ways with the City Manager and was in effect “fired.” Being re-hired after his retirement and removal as fire chief is a typical “golden parachute” that was offered in exchange for his going quietly into the good night, which would allow for a smooth and controversy free transition to a new chief. And just for the record, I think that if I knew of the specifics of his removal, I would probably side with him, since it was probably some chicken-**** politics from some chicken-**** city manager, mayor or city council person that caused his removal, not because he was doing a bad job or had done anything wrong.
But here is my point in all of this blah, blah, blah. Darrell Willis was probably hyper-sensitive to city politics, and scalp hunting city managers, mayors or city council persons, both because of his normal survival instincts (he didn’t make Chief in the first place because he was tone-deaf to city politics) which were without a doubt magnified by his own personal experiences. And as I just want to AMPLIFY my agreement in the strongest possible way with WTKTT when he or she said, “Perhaps…. but perhaps a certain fair portion of the ‘situational stressors’ that were in play that day really have always been (and are, even now) just ‘hiding in plain sight.”
SOMEONE GIVE ME AN AMEN, CAN I GET AN HALLELUJAH? When it comes to pressure being on Darrell Willis, Eric Marsh, Jesse Steed, (and probably every senior crew member on the Granite Mountain Hotshots who was on the “inside” of crew politics) the day they walked in front of the flaming front of the Yarnell Hill Fire. My God…there is the answer why they went down that death chute in an effort to get to the backside of Yarnell to help with evacuations and begin structure protection in spite of their training, experiences and common sense!
And I want to weigh in on one more point in this discussion. Any talk or thoughts that Darrell Willis was “grooming” Eric Marsh to be his replacement is 100 percent BULL****! Let me state one more time. Darrell Willis retired (under duress) as the Prescott Fire Department Chief! He was than rehired at more than $90,000 a year to manage the Wildlands Division, which meant for the most part, supervising Eric Marsh and driving around in the new or nearly new extended cab pick-up truck the City of Prescott bought with grant money from Uncle Sam, had coffee with his buddies, played city politics as necessary, and ordered free stuff for the crew from a big book the USDA-Forest Service sent him that was paid for with the money they saved by implementing the Incident Command System (see my previous lengthy and somewhat bitter comment, although not for myself, I did very well in the system thank you, I was one of the very, very, very, few who did, not because I was such a great employee, I was just in the right place at the right time more than once, and I had a habit of swinging whatever tool a supervisor handed me as hard as I could until I was told to stop, and I got luckier than most, although I have noticed in life that the “harder I fish, the luckier I get.”) and eliminating a large percentage of their own professional wildland firefighting force.
Darrell Willis is NOT going to give that job up, until they carry him out in a pine box (or he gets fired, this time for real), he can’t retire a second time, and leaving that position will be a net loss of more than $90,000 a year, and he is a relatively young man. And given his history, I find it hard to believe he was getting ready to move up the departmental ranks into a higher position. Are you kidding me? He had already hit the retirement JACK POT AND LOTTERY COMBINED! Darrell Willis had already moved from being the Emergency Services Coordinator for the city, which was his original “golden parachute” job, at a salary of more than $120,000 a year to the Wildlands Division Chief job. Probably because all he had to do in his new job for the most part, was supervise Eric Marsh and drive around in the new or nearly new extended cab pick-up truck the City of Prescott bought with grant money from Uncle Sam, have coffee with his buddies, play city politics as necessary, and ordered free stuff for the crew from a big book the USDA-Forest Service sent him that was paid for with the money they saved by implementing the Incident Command System, and eliminating a large percentage of their own professional wildland firefighting force.
And in case anybody is wondering, “Why would somebody willing move from a job making more than $120,000 a year to one making “only” more than $90,000 a year?” Well it’s simple math. As the Wildland Division Chief, not only did he have to work less, and play far fewer city politics, he made a LOT MORE MONEY! Why? Because of the “Portal to Portal” (door to door, paid for 24 hours a day, not just when you are working) pay STRUCTURAL FIREMAN get (because of their strong unions and weak city leaders) whenever they go on wildland firefighting assignments, which if you are the Wildlands Division Chief, and your only jobs are, see my previous list, you can go ALL OF THE TIME, whereas the Emergency Services Manager has to stay in Prescott and more or less take care of business and the Citizens of Prescott.
Now…if I got any of that wrong, those of you out there who are more “in the know” than I am, can write in and correct me. And if anybody doesn’t like me jumping to conclusions out there in cyber space…tough. See my previous statements that referenced the fact that I had to care what everybody thought about everything for more than 30 years (and have my facts right all of the time) and now I don’t care what anybody thinks about anything. And if anybody wants to sue me, I live in Flagstaff, Arizona, and I will be easy to find (I stand out in most crowds, except for those of retired football linemen). I will be waiting for you. What happened to the Granite Mountain Hotshots really, really, really, makes me mad…and reckless.
Oh, and one more thing as long as I am sharing. I might as well tell you the second most notable thing a top BLM manager told me, “What are you going to do now Gary, call 60 Minutes?”
Actually, what I should have said is, “And if anybody doesn’t like me shootin’ from the hip out there in cyber space…tough. I can still add, and 2 plus 2 equals 4.” This isn’t a court of law, it’ a cyber blog.
Gary,
I do think there had been a big blow-up and I do think that employee evaluation was unusual. Reading it you can sense unresolved tension.
HOWEVER, the implications of the scenario you have laid out just tears me up inside. To imply that Marsh knew it was a bad call… He was not just responsible for his own life, but the lives of 19 others, many who were basically kids. With their whole lives in front of them, with their hopes and dreams, their wives, girlfriends, mothers, children. To say that Marsh put his own job ahead of that, or even the continued existence of the crew. Suffice it to say, if that is how it went down, the great sympathy I have had for Eric Marsh would vanish. I do not think that is what happened. From everything that has been said about him, Marsh had too much integrity to let that happen. Gary, what you have alleged would fit with the known facts, although we really do not have evidence for it at this time. But God, I hope you are wrong.
Mike— We have been saying for some time that Marsh took a calculated risk. He got away in the past with bad decisions with good out comes same thing. Pressure of his position in a small city Fire force not much room to advance and a whole lot of politics. What Gary said straight out is the facts with out any dressing. There is not many other ways you can explain it. It’s the shits– but why else do you violate every thing you have been taught and go were no one else would have gone?
If Marsh was not being groomed (your financial evaluation about Willis may be spot on), there is the possibility that there could be several reasons for the comments in the evaluation:
1) Willis let Marsh take the reins, but Marsh stirred up some higher up manager, who unlike most firefighters, has “feelings” and may not have appreciated truthful, to the point, blunt discussions. (WFF are a pretty rough bunch, as an occupation. Not known for their touchy feely people skills….)
2) Maybe Willis was trying to point these things out to Marsh , so that he (Willis) could do even less managing of the crew and spend more time hob-knobbing with politicians…
WHO KNOWS??? Hint… Willis does…
Several other points I have, this format for the forum is not friendly to going way way back up the thread to post comments that actually get read…
The 3 Div Sups that were ordered came on a forecasted need (They identified that it was gonna get bigger and more fireline positions would be required) It is not unusual, to be deployed to an incident as a certain capacity (DIV, for example) but when you arrive and get tossed into the mix, that the tentative organization chart has changed and you end up being a spare body. If you have other credentials (lets say HEQG supervisor) and one of those roles needs to be filled, Plans re-assigns you. I have been launched as an FBAN, but due to weather change, ended up being a DIV, and vice versa.
The other comment that I have to make is way up the page someone said “How can a fire just blow up like that when it seems to be contained on all 4 sides?” It is quite easy actually… Early, Mid or late morning, things are quiet and fairly benign… Humidities are higher, temperatures are lower and usually winds are less. The peak of the burning period is 16:00 hours.. That is usually when temperatures peak, humidities bottom out and winds (diurnals) usually are at their peak. Especially in extremely flashy fuels (like chaparral, etc) things can change in a matter of no time. Once a critical threshold has been crossed, aggressive fire behaviour can be seen.
Here in Canada we use the 30/30 cross. Other agencies call it the black cross or crossover. When your temperature is greater tahn your relative humidity, fire behaviour can be expected to become aggressive (without the wind factored in). So, when our temp reach 30 C (86 F) and relative humidity is less than 30% agressive fire behaviour may be observerved…. So when you look at the data for that day 104 F and 10% RH, its a no brainer that things are gonna get exciting… Now add in a wind of 10 or 20 miles and hour, plus the drought situation that the area has experienced, pretty easy to figure that if 1 juniper bush candles, tossing embers over teh “two trackroad” that you are back to square one.
The fire Commanders on this incident should have known, been informed, realized that there was potential for this fire to go rock and roll crazy, and adjusted their plans, resources and tactics accordingly..
WTKTT,
In regard to the June 30th Lewis Crew blunder, you posted something about the “beginning of the ‘second Yarnell Hill fire’…” There was NO second YHF, only the one. The fire names GENERALLY keep the original name, with very few exceptions. You don’t number them based on how many escapes you had. Sitta and I both pretty accurately recognized the potential for escape based on fuels and weather. And like I posted earlier, there would have been all kinds of radio chatter if they were doing a large burnout. It would have been (be) best to have interviewed the Lewis Crew.
RTS… roger that. I am with you. I think those of us posting
here just did what this free-form PUBLIC forum is meant to do.
We looked at whatever PUBLIC evidence is available
regarding a pretty important aspect of the incident, and we
discussed something calmly, gave our opinions, and it’s up to
others to now decide what they think.
After your comments ( and other comments) on this… I am less
inclined now to believe the ‘flare up’ WAS totally man-made.
All I know is something ‘strange’ happened on Saturday.
Whether it was man-made or totally natural causes… it’s
very weird that a fire that everyone seemed to think was
‘fully contained’ for multiple HOURS… to the point where
important resources were allowed to leave the area…
but then suddenly ‘flares up’ the way it did and even the
14 guys who were up there trying to ‘catch it’ were out of
chainsaw gas an no one seemed to be able to help them…
was an unusual event and it will forever be part of the ‘story’
of what happened in Yarnell that entire weekend.
As for my referring to what happened on Saturday as the
‘second Yarnell Hill fire’… you are also right. There was never
any ‘officially’ designated ‘second fire’. That is just my own
reference to what happened on Saturday… but I believe it’s
an accurate description. Everyone thought the ‘Yarnell Hill
Fire’ was pretty much a ‘done deal’ on Saturday ( for hours )
and then all of sudden… it wasn’t. There was a ‘second fire’ that
got away from them and then became the one everyone
was trying to fight on Sunday.
I do think there are ‘lessons to be learned’ from Saturday alone
that have been largely ignored so far.
Maybe someday we will know more about Saturday.
As it turns out… I was wrong about whether any Lewis
crew people were ever interviewed by anyone.
Some very important members of the ‘Lewis’ crew that were
up there all day ( and spent the night ) WERE, in fact,
interviewed by ADOSH ( but not the SAIT. AFAICT ).
There are actually records of these interviews taking place
at the TOP of the ADOSH report… but there is no real
indication in the report itself about what any of them really
had to say other than the general ‘the fire escaped’
summary similar to the other reports. No real details.
ADOSH also did, in fact, interview this ‘Justin Smith’ person who
was, in fact, the ICT4(T) Trainee handling things on Saturday.
Maybe one day those actual interviews conducted by a
PUBLIC taxpayer supported agency ( ADOSH ) will actually
be made available to the PUBLIC.
From the top of the ADOSH report…
** Interviews conducted by ADOSH…
ICT4(T) Justin Smith, Division Supervisor, Crew
Coordinator-AS PC Perryville;
Arizona Department of Corrections Interviews – AZDOC:
Sergeant Joe Barreras, assigned to Division Alpha, ASPC-Lewis
Inmate hand crew;
Correctional Officer II Leo Vasquez, assigned to Division Alpha,
ASPC-Lewis inmate hand crew;
Jake Guadiana, Crew Coordinator, assigned to Division Alpha,
Arizona State Forestry Division, ASPC-Lewis inmate hand crew;
Sergeant Chad Blackwell, Structure Group 2 resource (Double
Bar A Ranch, Model Creek Subdivision, Peeples Valley),
ASPC-Yuma inmate hand crew;
Sergeant Parker, assigned to Incident Command Post initially,
ASPC-Florence inmate hand crew;
Sergeant Paulson, Structure Group 2 resource (Double Bar A
Ranch, Model Creek Subdivision, Peeples Valley), ASPCGlobe
inmate hand crew.
There is also definite proof in the ‘Incident Logs’ that it was
Russ Shumate himself who wanted to hire Justin Smith
as an ICT4(T) trainee for Saturday.
The logs show Shumate REQUESTING Justin be hired as
ICT4(T), then it shows that order taking place, and then him
arriving at the fire and beginning work in that capacity.
Justin himself then appears in the logs handling resource
orders and whatnot.
There is even a moment in the logs when someone from
Dispatch with initials ‘CH’ is asking for a direct confirmation
from Shumate if Justin Smith is working the fire as ICT4(T)
trainee and Shumate VERIFIES this.
Justin disappears from the logs when things started to hit the
fan and Russ Shumate started ramping up the ordering
for Sunday.
From the Incident (Dispatch) Logs for Saturday…
http://www.azsf.az.gov/system/files/documents/files/Yarnell%20Hill%20Dispatch%20Log%207-5-2013.pdf
Entry Date/Time, From, To, Details
06/28/2012 19:19:21, RUSS, KM, INACTIVE, NOT MUCH OF A
THREAT. NOT TAKING ACTION TONIGHT. GIVE THE LEWIS
CREW THAT WE’RE GOING TO HAVE THEM IN PRESCOTT
AT 0800. AT MY OFFICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
ORDER JUSTIN SMITH AS AN ICT4(T).
06/28/2013 19:22:52, CH, JAKE, ORDERING LEWIS CREW TO
GO TO THIS INCIDENT BY 0800 TOMORROW AND MEET AT
RUSS’S OFFICE // COPY
06/28/2013 19:27:09, KM, JUSTIN, LEFT VM (Voice message)
06/28/2013 19:30:43, KM, JUSTIN, RUSS WOULD LIKE YOU
AT HIS OFFICE AT 0800 TO GO OUT AS AN ICT4(T). I’LL EMAIL
YOUR RESOURCE ORDER TONIGHT // OK
06/28/2013 21:05:48, Russ, WR, need Lewis to be @ Peeples
Valley Gas station @ 0800 and Yuma Crew to drive up around
0500 and be here @ Peeples Valley Gas Station and both
crews be double sack lunched // copy // also need Prescott
Armory open for both crews tomorrow and need Justin and Jake
here @ 0800 // copy we will call them and advise them.
06/29/2013 07:48:35, CH, 1-4, I HAVE YOUR SPOT WEATHER
FORECAST AND I HAVE A COUPLE QUESTIONS FOR
YOU // I’LL HAVE YOU READ THE FORCAST TO JUSTIN HERE
IN A MIN. // ARE YOU GOING TO BE THE IC FOR THIS FIRE
AND JUSTING FOR THE IC TRAINEE? // YES I WILL BE IC AND
JUSTIN AS IC TRAINEE // WHAT TIME DO YOU WANT THE
ARMORY AND FOR HOW MANY? // PLAN FOR 1900 AND
FOR ABOUT 40 COULD BE MORE OR LESS.
06/29/2013 09:08:45, JUSTIN, CH, WE NEED THE AIR TO
GROUND FREQ. // IT IS A/G 16 159.3450N Tone 192.8 Tx/Rx
06/29/2013 09:46:27, JUSTIN, CH, I’M GUNNA NEED AN S
NUMBER FOR THE GOLDEN CORRAL FOR 48 PEOPLE
FOR DINNER AND ALSO AN E NUMBER FOR THE PEOPLES
VALLEY TYPE 6 ENGINE WITH LIC# G583EZ, ENGB JAKE
MODOR // OK WE WILL CREATE THOSE ORDERS
06/29/2013 09:53:00, JUSTIN, RLH, REQUEST S# FOR ICE
AT THE MOUNTAINEERS MIN MART, PEOPLES VALLEY,
WILL CALL BACK HOW MUCH AND PAYMENT METHOD.
06/29/2013 10:21:17, JUSTIN, WALTER, 34 13 21.5N X 112 44
44.4W LANDING ZONE // COPY
06/29/2013 10:48:44 AA, ALH, H-4HX DROPPED 6 HELITACK
OFF 1/4 MILE FROM RIDGE TO HIKE IN. – WILL GET LAT/LONG
FROM HELITACK FOR LZ.
06/29/2013 10:56:38, AA, ALH, THE HELISPOT LOCATION
IS 34 14.11N X 112 47.64W
06/29/2013 18:13:32, WR, IC, DO YOU NEED JUST PAUL
( MUSSER ) OR DO YOU NEED MORE OVERHEAD? // 1 DIV 3
TASK FORCE // WHAT ABOUT GETTING A STATE TYPE 2
OR 3 TEAM // I’LL CALL JIM AND DISCUSS THAT
06/29/2013 19:04:25, NT, IC, ADVISED OF HALL, MUSSER
AND JIM CARLSON HEADING THAT WAY
06/29/2013 19:20:57, GEYER, NT, GO AHEAD AND GE JOKI
AND ALSO ORDER CLOSEST DIVS AND TFLD.
Reply to Sitta post on February 10, 2014 at 8:20 am
>> Sitta wrote…
>>
>> Mop up may take place on quiet sections of a large, uncontained fire.
>> Usually, though, the mop up phase doesn’t really begin until the whole fire
>> is lined. I was under the impression that on Saturday the crews were
>> still containing the fire (building line around it), not mopping up. Do the
>> details or records exist that can more clearly tell us what was actually
>> going on?
Not really. There are some vague descriptions and clues and, of course
the photographs from Saturday.
ALL of the official reports ( and SAIT interviewees ) agree that on Saturday
morning there was no visible fire, little or no smoke, and descriptions
vary from ‘Fire was very minor’ to ‘Fire showing no activity’ and ‘Fire
was only 2-4 acres’.
They all also agree that everyone assumed the fire was ‘contained on
all four sides’ and never grew in size all day… until it jumped the road.
The ONLY report that even mentions what the DOC Lewis crew’s actual
ASSIGNMENT was that morning is the ADOSH report which says this…
“At 1100 a BLM helicopter transported seven firefighters to the top of the ridge.
One helitack crew member and six DOC Lewis Crew firefighters hiked in the
rest of the way ( for a total of 14 firefighters there at the 2-4 acre fire site ) to
construct handline, cold trail and hot spot.”
So the words ‘mop-up’ are never specifically mentioned, but the actual
source for this quote and/or who ever said that was their actual
assignment is also not mentioned in the ADOSH report, or
anywhere else.
There was no documented Incident Action Plan that day where we might
be able to read what their ‘actual’ assignments were, and no one from
the actual DOC Lewis crew was ever interviewed by any official entity.
BELOW is a ‘synopsis’ from ALL the official reports and the SAIT investigation
notes that only pertain to Saturday morning, what everyone thought the situtation
was, and then on through the moment in the afternoon when the fire suddenly
‘jumped the jeep road’.
Things to NOTE in the ‘synopsis’ below…
** A TRAINEE WAS IN CHARGE ON SATURDAY?
It was the SAIT interview with Nate Peck, ICT4 and FFT1 with Moki Helitack
NE Washington; Coleville NF assistant Engine Operator
that says ( on Sauturday morning )…
“Fire at the time was very minor. Perfect fire for an ICT5 trainee.”
…and then goes on to say that later on, after the fire escaped,
the ‘trainee’ was asking for Nate to ‘take over and cover OPS’.
** DEAN FERNANDEZ (BLM) WANTED CHOPPER / PUMPKIN SUPPORT
Dean Fernandez ( BLM rep ) was the one who saw the need for
more chopper water dumps to ‘get it over with’… and he tried
to get a ‘pumpkin’ set up since the only chopper there could
only carry 50 gallons… but it never happened. He asked Shumate,
at one point if Shumate wanted him to ‘take over the fire’ and
Shumate’s only response was “Why… am I doing something wrong?”
** JUSTIN SMITH (ASFD) WAS DIVSUP FOR THE (DOC) LEWIS CREW
Oddly enough… only the WFAR report mentions who was (supposedly)
actually in charge of that (DOC) Lewis Crew out there on Saturday.
By ‘odd’ I mean that the WFAR report was contracted by ADOSH and
the WFAR report does mention him… but the actual ADOSH report does not.
Here is exactly what the WFAR report says about ‘Justin Smith’…
“( Shortly after jumping the jeep road )… The Yarnell Hill Fire was (then)
estimated at six acres by ASFD Crew Coordinator Justin Smith who was
assigned by Shumate as the Division Supervisor for the crew on the hill.”
**
** SYNOPSIS FOR SATURDAY FROM ALL FROM OFFICIAL REPORTS
**
** From the SAIR ( page 12 )…
Saturday, 29 June 2013
ICT4 assesses the fire then reports to Dispatch that little smoke is showing and
they will drop retardant to hold the fire until crews arrive. At 0651, he requests
two Single Engine Airtankers (SEATs). They arrive mid-morning and drop fire
retardant on the south and west flanks until about noon, each making two
retardant drops.
Just before 1100, a BLM helicopter transports seven firefighters to within one
quarter mile of the ridge. The one helitack and six Department of Corrections
firefighters hike in the rest of the way to construct handline ( for a total of
14 firefighters there at the 2-4 acre fire site ).
The fire is holding on all four sides and none of the other starts from the day
before shows smoke.
At 1442, ICT4 advises Dispatch he is releasing Air Attack.
At 1540, he releases the BLM brush engine and a local Peeples Valley fire engine,
because the multiple fire starts he had expected do not materialize. ICT4 releases
the two SEATs for new assignments and the State of Arizona Aviation Officer
orders them to reposition to the Wickenburg SEAT Base.
( Two hours after releasing Air Attack… )
The fire eventually jumps the two-track road ( circa 1630 ) on the east flank
and grows to about six acres by late afternoon.
** From the ADOSH report…
At 1100 a BLM helicopter transported seven firefighters to the top of the ridge.
One helitack crew member and six DOC Lewis Crew firefighters hiked in the
rest of the way ( for a total of 14 firefighters there at the 2-4 acre fire site ) to
construct handline, cold trail and hot spot.
At approximately 1225, Shumate reported that the fire size was
(only) about two acres.
At 1442, Shumate released the Air Attack and the SEATS
due to the fire holding on all four sides.
At 1540, Shumate released the BLM brush engine and a local Peeples
Valley fire engine due to the lack of multipie fires.
At 1630 ( 2 hours after releasing the SEATs ), the fire jumped the two-track jeep road.
** From the WFAR… ( NOTE: Almost word for word same as ADOSH )
At 1100, a BLM helicopter transported seven firefighters to the top of the ridge.
The one helitack and six DOC Lewis Crew firefighters hiked in the rest of
the way into the fire ( for a total of 14 firefighters there at the 2-4 acre fire site ).
At approximately 1225, the ICT4 (Shumate) reported the fire size was
(only) about two acres.
At 1442, the ICT4 released the ATGS and the SEATs because the fire was
holding on all four sides.
At 1540, the ICT4 released the BLM brush engine and a local Peeples Valley
fire engine that were being held in the event any new fires from the lightning
on June 28 appeared.
At 1630 ( 2 hours after releasing the SEATs ), the fire jumped the two-track jeep road.
The Yarneil Hill Fire was (then) estimated at six acres by ASFD Crew Coordinator
Justin Smith who was assigned by Shumate as the Division Supervisor for the
crew on the hill. At some point near this time Shumate learned that the Lewis
Crew was out of chainsaw gas which seriousiy hindered their ability to be
effective in chaparral.
** From SAIT Interview notes ( regarding Saturday, June 29, 2013 )…
Interview with Dean Fernandez ( BLM rep )…
Saturday morning went to Weaver Mtn Helibase and went in the helo and
scouted the fire, it looked good, innocent. They landed ( at the Yarnell
Fire Station ) and picked (DOC) people up and took the crew members
out ( to the fire ). I ( Dean ) was acting as a Rep and suggested several times
to get a pumpkin set up, but it wasn’t happening… later on the fire picked up
which was a surprise. It jumped the line,
Interview with Nate Peck, ICT4 and FFT1 with Moki Helitack NE Washington;
Coleville NF assistant Engine Operator…
On the morning of the 29th we were up in Payson for severity.
Flew to Weaver Mountain helibase.
Plan was heli for overhead recon.
Fire at the time was very minor.
Making contact w/ IC in Yarnell, requests placement of firefighters on the fire.
He gets dropped off at helispot around 1000.
Informed of 3 loads of firefighters coming up and he was to stay w/ the crew to assist.
By 1030 everyone on the hill. Little to no activity on the fire.
Perfect fire for an ICT5 trainee.
About 1330/1345 picked up a little spot
Spot is building rapidly around 1445 no more shuttles.
Crew boss states that he will act as DIVS because of activity.
FL of 10-20ft hoping that jeep trail will hold the fire.
AA comes with SEATS as 1st load of Moki Helitack arrive.
Fire is just walking down the slope, very intense burning SE winds, trying to
hold SE corner.
Name of IC? Yarnell Hill IC, no name never knew the IC’s name.
(Must have been Russ) this is around 1630.
Phone call to IC, answered by IC trainee.
Still fussing about air tankers, go by title of
DIVS A to talk to AA. Size 10-20 acres. Winds still out of SE, fire backing.
Lots of radio traffic, lookout helping him w/ communication.
IC trainee show up, wants him to cover Ops.
Nate said no, keep process simple.
Stayed on the clock with crew all night. I have struggled with the IC and process.
AA on scene @ 0730, helo on @ 0800 config for back haul.
Shuttles started ( removing crew from ridge ) soon after.
Started running retardant on SE corner.
He and IC trainee to go out ( back to Yarnell ) on last load.
Heard conversation of GM hiking in, saw someone standing by sling location.
Thought he spoke w/ Eric Marsh at that time he was asking excellent questions about conditions.
Someone made the comment that he’s really on it.
Mentioned that the fire had really blown up yesterday afternoon.
Interview with Russ Shumate…
Two crews ordered for next morning.
Inmates – planned for day shift
0700 (Saturday) Back in Yarnell – no smoke showing. No smoke from FS.
AA from Tonto – Sized up fire, no smoke
To fire – 1 helitack type 4 – 2 AFS crew boss, crew boss(t) – 4 inmates
Size up – not much heat – can cold trail
About 1400 – getting creep on the west side
Can handle – moving that way
Helicopter could only get about 50 gals to the fire. Asked “do we want retardant?”
More creep moving – do we need retardant or water:
Plan to fly six helitacks/12 bladder bags to fire.
Pocket to eastside spreading possible spot hiking
Guy on spot picked up by helo
13 guys spent night on fire
Approximately 10-15 acres at sunset
Didn’t get helicopter from Prescott due to weather.
About 2-3 fires spots across the road.
Interview with Darrell Willis…
Russ said they thought fire was done deal ( on Saturday), then fire got out and
he was unsure where it was.
Heard rumor that the crew fired about on mile of line.
>> Sitta also wrote…
>>
>> It would be very easy to get an unexpected burst of activity in the
>> Yarnell fuels, even without any wind. Perhaps some duff ten feet into
>> the interior was smoldering, the embers crept into a nice pocket of
>> loose, light material right under some oak, and whoosh — suddenly
>> you have twenty foot flames. Those flare ups create their own little
>> convection currents, which can carry burning leaves across a road.
>> ( Another reason why even informal lookouts are important! )
Well… unless it can be proven that the Lewis crew really did try to do
some ‘burnoff’ of their own down to the jeep road ( and screwed it up )
then that pretty much HAS to be explanation for the beginning of the
‘second Yarnell Hill fire’…
…the one they ended up fighting on Sunday, June 30, 2013 ).
Marti Reed on February 4, 2014 at 11:16 pm said:
“I believe those of us who have contributed mucho mucho time out of out lives need to figure out how to make this relevant in order to make sure all this work isn’t wasted. And I, frankly, don’t know how to do that. But I am not evenly remotely going to connect another damn dot until we find a way to make sure our work isn’t being done in vain.”
Marti, (in case you are still reading here) THANK YOU for all you’ve done. You deserve to try to get back to work (as I have been). Your work will not go away.
I’m not really sure what to do with all of this, myself. I hope WTKTT is right (“this is not going away.”) But what it will take to motivate the agencies to make changes — I have no idea. All I can think of is to: A) nudge my legislators toward sane fire policy — I can do this, being in a western state; B) keep the discussion factual and relevant during our wildland fire training sessions; C) bring our concerns up with all my coworkers and supervisors, and network with others I find who don’t want to let this go; and D) be open to any opportunities that arise to take this further. If there does end up being any groundswell of interest, this forum (and your research, Marti) will be an excellent resource.
That said, I remain frustrated. I worry that this incident (and the SAIT) will lead our wildland fire culture in the direction of complacency instead of better practices. We will never feel as shocked by the deaths of 19 hotshots again. Will we just adjust to a new reality, and accept firefighter deaths every summer? The nation seems to have adjusted to a new normal of perpetual deployment in the Middle East, and the deaths that come with that. We go about our lives and try not to think about it too much.
How do I know we won’t just accept firefighters dying to save houses in the WUI every year, and get used to the funerals, and the heroes in the obituaries, until it’s not even newsworthy anymore? The SAIT implies that these things just happen. I know we all disagree with that conclusion here, but I’m not hearing it protested enough elsewhere.
My only comfort is that the work done here will not go away. I won’t forget what I’ve picked up here. And if there ever is a USFS or BLM research team, or some other safety oriented group with a bit of clout and a mandate, there is a lot they can learn on this forum.
Wow…Amen, I couldn’t have said it better. Thank you.
Reply to mike post on February 7, 2014 at 12:06 am said:
>> mike said…
>>
>> Obviously there was tunnel vision in play that day.
>> The ultimate tunnel vision had to be in how the behavior of that fire
>> was assessed.
>> …
>> Why the tunnel vision?
>> …
>> Was it due to external pressure from above, the pressure of the culture
>> of the PFD, or was it just a bad read?
>> …
>> Trying to identify all the stressors that lead WFF to have tunnel vision
>> may be an enormous task.
Perhaps…. but perhaps a certain fair portion of the ‘situational stressors’ that
were in play that day really have always been ( and are, even now ) just
‘hiding in plain sight’.
Example: I’m not sure a lot of people have ever really read Darrell Willis’
entire ‘Employee Evaluation Report’ on Eric Marsh, written and signed
by both men on May 3, 2013… just 57 days before they would both find
themselves working in DIVS/OPS level positions on the same fire in
their own backyard ( The Yarnell Hill Fire ).
Likewise… I don’t think a lot of people have ever really read Eric Marsh’s
own ‘Employee Self Evaluation Report’ written in response to Willis’
evaluation on the same day in May… just 57 days before Yarnell.
They are both fascinating documents and tell you a LOT about the real
employer/employee relationship between these two men and the
PERFORMANCE EXPECTATIONS that were DIRECTLY imposed
on Marsh just 57 days before Yarnell.
I don’t think many people have read the entire documents because they
are simply ‘photographs’ taken of the documents themselves and they
have never been ‘searchable’ PDF files or valid scanned images.
On page 2 of Willis’ evaluation… someone’s THUMB is even photographed
in the top left, just holding the document in front of a camera.
So for the sake of making these 2 documents ‘searchable’ and recorded
somewhere other than deep in the SAIT FOIA/FOIL package… Below is
a ‘searchable’ TEXT version of both of those documents.
** SUMMARY OF THE DOCUMENTS
NOTE: Opinions expressed are my own. Your mileage may vary.
The ‘itemized’ checkbox section for Marsh was filled out by Willis with
mostly the ‘Exceeds standards’ checkbox choice… ( basically an ‘A’ grade ),
but out of the 34 separate line items that Willis was ‘grading’ Marsh on
Willis obviously chose to give Marsh the inferior ‘Meets standards’
choice ( basically a ‘B’ grade instead of an ‘A’ ) only 5 times.
So Willis basically gave Marsh 29 ‘A’ grades… and just 5 ‘B’ grades.
Those 5 ‘B’ grades are actually pretty ‘telling’ about what was going on
between these 2 men because they are all pretty ‘similar’ and it seems
obvious what Willis was telling Marsh he needs to ( in Willis’ opinion )
‘work on’ in the coming year.
Those (only) 5 ‘B’ grades Willis gave Marsh are the following…
Communicates effectively ( verbal and written ) – M
Analyzes decision before acting – M
Willingly cooperates with co-workers and members of management – M
Adapts to and supports change in a positive manner – M
Communication with staff is timely, clear, and continuous – M
So I think that makes it pretty clear that while Willis was NOT totally
‘dissatisfied’ with his employee Eric Marsh… he was also clearly
indicating that HE thinks Marsh has ‘communication’ issues ( with HIM
and others ) and that Marsh needs to not ‘knee-jerk’ in some of his
decision making and then refuse to listen to / cooperate with (quote)
‘members of management’.
Willis goes on to pretty much clarify that is what he meant in the checkbox
section with the following statement/directive in the ‘comments’ section….
“I would like to be involved up front on all planned events that the crew is
involved in to add my expertise to ensure that the event goes off in an
excellent manner.”
So Willis is implying that some other ( recent? ) ‘events’ that the GM crew
were involved with ( fireline events? ) did not ‘go off in an excellent manner’
( according to Willis’ definition ) and Willis believes it was because he
wasn’t ‘in the loop’ and being consulted about what they were doing.
That sounds like a pretty heavy directive.
Paraphrased…
“I am your boss and I’m unhappy with some decisions you have made
on your own so please consult with ME FIRST from now on.”
or… even simpler…
“I don’t fully trust your decision making. Talk to me first from now on
so I can ‘add MY expert input’ to (all) your decision making.”
Again… that’s pretty heavy stuff and creates an obvious level of distrust
and a clear expectation that this employee needs to be running his
future ‘decision making’ through this employer.
Willis doesn’t even stop there.
He immediately ALSO tells Marsh that he apparently doesn’t trust all of
his specific decision making with regards to STAFFING issues, either.
Willis immediately adds…
“I am requesting that you notify me anytime you need assistance from HR on
hiring issues and that all inquiries that are made to HR are run through me first.”
Again… pretty heavy ( and specific ) stuff.
Willis is telling Marsh that ALL INQUIRIES made to ‘Human Resources’,
specifically, are ALSO now to ALWAYS go through HIM FIRST.
He doesn’t want Marsh going ‘behind his back’ anymore ( as Marsh apparently
had already done at some point ) over the whole Granite Mountain full-time or
seasonal staffing issues. ( E.g – The Robert Caldwell benefits issue ).
Again… adds even another level of ‘tension’ between Willis and Marsh
just 57 days before Yarnell.
Then Willis says this which actually foreshadows part of what was GOING
to happen just 57 days later in Yarnell…
“I also would like you to begin the mentoring of Jesse Steed as your
replacement giving him opportunities and the freedom to lead the crew
and you take a more hands off approach.”
Unless there was already a ‘promise’ between these two men ( Willis and
Marsh ) that Marsh would be transitioning into either Willis’ job, or some
other capacity at PFD… then this sounds an awful lot like a ‘for the sake
of the department and the division please make sure you are replaceable’
sort of ‘gentle’ warning.
NOTE: After the incident… Willis DID say in public that he, himself, had been
‘mentoring’ Marsh as his replacement…. but there is no other real
documented evidence of that and Willis’ statement to Marsh documented
above was 57 days BEFORE the Yarnell fire. Was this ‘mentoring’
agreement ( and the implied automatic promotion ) already FULLY verbalized
AND understood between these two men on May 5, 2013, at the time this
documented exchange took place?
Willis ends his ‘comments’ with another BIG (two-part) warning to Marsh…
“Finally, I believe it is imperative for you to maintain a positive attitude
in everything you do, you have 20 people looking for leadership everyday, the
department is looking at our Division everyday and the City as a whole is
evaluating our performance, goals and service. we need to lead up front and
realize the Division’s future is in our hands.”
** Part one of this two-part warning from Willis to Marsh…
“Work on your attitude. No negativity ( as I have seen lately ).”
** Part two of this two-part warning from Willis to Marsh…
“Not only am I going to be watching YOU… the entire Department and City of
Prescott itself is closely watching BOTH of us and the actual PERFORMANCE
of this Wildland Division. The future of the whole thing depends on YOU
and ME now. Let’s PERFORM! ( …but don’t forget to run your decision
making through me, as I already requested above ).”
Again… this is just 57 days before Yarnell.
So… the 64 dollar question…
Does everything documented above, just 57 days before Yarnell, amount
to Eric Marsh being a man who felt he was now being ‘closely watched’
by his direct supervisor… AND by the entire City and Department he
worked for… and who was TOLD by his direct supervisor ( Willis ) to
‘run all your decision making through ME from now on’?
Are these ‘stressors’ that MIGHT have been fully in play on June 30, 2013,
with BOTH of these men actually working the SAME FIRE at an
operational / command level?
I think, at the very least, it documents an ‘odd’ employer/employee
relationship that had devolved into a fair level of MISTRUST… but the
direct supervisor was trying to get a handle on that with direct
requests to ‘run your decision making through me, please’.
The tragedy of the Yarnell Hill Fire is still deeply rooted in ‘decision making’,
and who did or did not PARTICIPATE in that fateful decision making that day.
Here are the ( searchable ) TEXT versions of both of those ‘photographed’
original documents in the SAIT FOIA/FOIL package…
*** DARRELL WILLIS’ EMPLOYEE EVALUATION FOR ERIC MARSH
***
*** MAY 3, 2013 – 57 DAYS BEFORE THE YARNELL FIRE
Document in SAIT FOIA/FOIL package: ASF000042-INV to ASF000384-INV.pdf
Page 250 ( of 343 pages )
City of Prescott
Handwriting: 1051 230
Stamp: MAY 13, 2013
EMPLOYEE PERFORMANCE APPRAISAL
EMPLOYEE NAME: Eric Marsh
DEAPARTMENT: Fire/Wildland
POSITION TITLE: Superintendent
SUPERVISOR NAME: Darrell Willis
EVALUATION PERIOD: 04/10/12 – 04/10/13
EVALUATION TYPE: Annual
RATINGS E=Exceeds Standard M=Meets Standard I=Improvement Needed
* Quality and Quantity of Work
Thoroughness and accuracy of work – E
Being proactive – E
Prioritizes and meets established deadlines – E
Communicates effectively ( verbal and written ) – M
Adheres to safety programs and assigned tasks – E
* Dependability / Attendance
Demonstrates reliability and responsibility by following a job
through to completion – E
Takes responsibility for a job – E
Reports to work on all scheduled days, adheres to break and meal schedule – E
Begins work, meetings and appointments on time – E
Provides appropriate notice when requesting time off or calling in sick – E
* Core Beliefs
Acts with integrity – E
Works as a team – E
Personal commitment and loyalty – E
Solves problems – E
Takes pride in excellent results – E
High level of productivity – E
Being nice – E
* Decision Making / Initiative / Problem Solving
Performs with minimal supervision – E
Analyzes decision before acting – M
Looks for better ways to perform job – E
Appropriately utilizes resources – E
Makes practical, routine decisions – E
* Teamwork and Interpersonal Relationships
Willingly cooperates with co-workers and members of management – M
Treats others with respect and consideration – E
Demonstrates support for the City, department mission, and policies – E
Accepts constructive criticism positively – E
Adapts to and supports change in a positive manner – M
* Supervisory Positions Only
Evaluations are accurate description of employee behavior and are
completed on time – E
Communication with staff is timely, clear, and continuous – M
Monitors work of direct reports to ensure quality standards are met – E
Gives specific and constructive feedback to expand on professional
development – E
Consistently and creatively demonstrates appreciation for a job well done – E
Leads in a way that promotes a positive work environment – E
Empowers others to make decisions and suggest changes – E
* Goals / Objectives Met
All met.
* Goals / Objectives for Next Evaluation Period
1. Build capacity and succession plan for GMIHC to maintain NWCG qualifications
if any FTE ( Full Time Employee ) leaves.
2. Continue to develop relationships, teamwork and cohesiveness with all
department divisions and personnel.
3. Develop a fuels treatment plan that includes how and when fuels projects will
be completed based upon grant requirements.
4. Support fire administration and City leaders on decisions related to staffing and finances.
5. Continue to learn and implement all budgeting and financial processes.
* Summary of Performance by Evaluator
Eric, 2012 and the beginning of 2013 has been a challenging and exciting time for
the Wildland Division. You have weathered the storm and kept the Division intact.
You have done a great job with the budget this year, the crew is intact with a major
disruption in staffing just a few days prior to the seasonal firefighters starting.
This issue shows the resilience of the you and the Division to meet the challenge.
I would like you to work on some things that can use improvement this year.
I would like to be involved up front on all planned events that the crew is involved
in to add my expertise to ensure that the event goes off in an excellent manner.
I am requesting that you notify me anytime you need assistance
from HR on hiring issues and that all inquiries that are made to HR are run through
me first. I also would like you to begin the mentoring of Jesse Steed as your
replacement giving him opportunities and the freedom to lead the crew and you
take a more hands off approach. I would also like you to put together a succession
plan that addresses the succession of all FTEs within the crew. Eric, one area
that I sense some frustration in is the area of staffing of two lost positions. Chief
Fraijo, you and I have done everything we can to address this issue, we have spent
a lot of time and energy trying to fill the positions, it is now time to let the system
work, realize that we have done our best and make the best of the situation.
I appreciate how you have reached out to the other Divisions within the
department and are trying to integrate the Wildland Division into the department
as a whole, this is going to be a long process, please continue leading out in
this area. Finally, I believe it is imperative for you to maintain a positive attitude
in everything you do, you have 20 people looking for leadership everyday, the
department is looking at our Division everyday and the City as a whole is
evaluating our performance, goals and service. we need to lead up front and
realize the Division’s future is in our hands. Thank you for another exceptional
year.
* Signatures
Employee Signature and Date
Eric Marsh – 05/03/13
Supervisor Signature and Date
Darrell Willis – 05/03/13
Department Head Signature and Date
Dan Fraijo – 05/09/13
Employee signature indicates that this appraisal has been reviewed and
discussed and does not necessarily indicate agreement with the contents.
*** ERIC MARSH’S OWN EMPLOYEE SELF APPRAISAL DOCUMENT
***
*** MAY 3, 2013 – 57 DAYS BEFORE THE YARNELL FIRE
Document in SAIT FOIA/FOIL package: ASF000042-INV to ASF000384-INV.pdf
Page 252 ( of 343 pages )
City of Prescott
EMPLOYEE SELF APPRAISAL
EMPLOYEE NAME: Eric Marsh
DEPARTMENT: Fire
POSITION TITLE: Superintendent
EVALUATION TYPE: Annual
* Summary of workplace accomplishments performed over the year
Successful recruitment and training for the 2012 and 2013 season. Safe and
successful season. Accomplished a lot of crew member training objectives.
Met projected targets for the fuels program/grants. Continued to provide
succession training to crewmembers. Continued my own succession training.
Provided the City/Department with training and manpower to meet multiple objectives.
* Greatest workplace challenges over the last year
It is challenging to run a nationally recognized program with minimum standards
and requirements that I am unable to meet. It is frustrating when I know that I have
the answers to anyone’s questions about the program but can’t communicate with
the decision makers to engage in an educational dialogue. I believe things are
starting to change, however I still have some big questions that need answering
about staffing.
* Provide an assessment of your success in reaching the goals set at
* the beginning of the evaluation period.
I have continued my training with the Wildland Division budget and other
administrative duties. I was able to oversee a successful fuels program
that got more crew members involved in ownership of the program.
* Do you have any suggestions for the Department / City to consider for
* streamlining processes or improving efficiency?
I feel that encouraging by-in of the current direction the department is going will
foster a supportive and productive work environment. Supervisor training for
effective performance evaluations would be nice.
* Additional Employee Comments
I am encouraged by many things that are taking place organizationally.
It is always easier to weather the storm if there is support and shared vision.
* Signatures
Employee Signature and Date
Eric Marsh – 05/03/13
Supervisor Signature and Date
Darrell Willis – 05/05/13
I would be careful about reading too much into this document. Different bosses handle these things differently, and a document where everything is marked excellent is usually worthless. I have no doubt there was some tension, but I think it was likely around staff and benefits issues. Marsh I suspect had taken these matters into his own hands, and probably pissed some people off, and Willis had to smooth it over. My gut tells me this was not about fireline issues that Willis was asking Marsh to run by him.
The “M” rating that might stand out is “analyzes decision before acting”. Hard to know what Willis was referring to here. Also hard to know how much thought Marsh put into that decision that day. Was it a rash decision, or did he think about it, but came to the wrong conclusions? We do hear him discussing it with Steed apparently, so maybe it was the latter.
I agree, with only 3 choices. Excellent, Meets or Improvement, there is a huge range of actual assessment.
Even if Marsh had every single one of his tick boxes as a “meets requirements”, that would not be a red flag..
That’s true… but even with no obvious ‘red flags’
in that evaluation ( Williis was generally pleased
with Marsh, fer sure ) there is still, I think an
obvious ‘message’ that Willis was trying to convey
to Marsh.
It’s not that Willis only chose to give Marsh a
‘B’ grade out of the 34 possible ‘A’ grades…
It’s the fact that those 5 ‘B’ grades were all
‘of a kind’ and had shared implications.
Attitude, decision making, respect for management.
Backed up by Willis’ direct comments about
those same things… I think there was a clear
‘message’ being sent to Marsh…
…just 57 days before the Yarnell incident.
mike… totally agree. This was generally an ‘excellent’
employee review… but I don’t think I am ‘reading too much
into it’. What I see there is a not-so-subtle message
coming OUT of the document.
I think it’s pretty obvious Willis was using this once-a-year
opportunity to send Marsh a pretty clear ‘message’, also
knowing that Chief Dan Fraijo would be reading it.
Willis even addresses Chief Fraijo directly in his
comment section ( and not Marsh ) since Willis KNEW
that the Chief would be reading what he was saying
to Marsh. Willis turned it into a ‘three-way’ conversation.
I’m also going to disagree that Willis’ direct
request / directive to Marsh to ‘run your decision making
through me from now on’ was all about the obvious
‘behind the back’ incident with regards to benefits for
the full-time employees. ( Ashcraft, etc. ).
My reasoning there is that Willis directly related that
‘directive’ to something that Willis says resulted in
‘less than excellent performance because I wasn’t
in the loop’.
I’m not sure some background frap about Marsh
contacting Human Resources directly over a
benefits issue would have generated this ‘excellent
performance’ concern that Willis was talking about.
That ‘excellent performance’ part of Willis’ directive
seems to suggest he was more concerned about
something that happened ‘in the field’ that he felt
didn’t result in the ‘excellent performance’ he ( Willis )
was ‘expecting’ from the entire GM outfit, or something.
So you may be right… all the ‘run things through me
from now on’ MAY have been all administrative stuff…
…but I’m left with a nagging feeling about that
‘excellent performance’ thing meaning that Willis wanted
to be ‘included in decisions from now on’ that were
going to be taking place while the crew was actually
‘on the job’ somewhere (like Yarnell… only 57 days later?).
Although I wish there were great insights to be revealed in employee evaluations, I’d suggest you take the scores with a grain of salt. I went through a string of supervisors who just gave everyone straight 3’s, because it was easier and quicker. I was fairly shocked the first time I had an evaluation with anything else.
Also, supervisors and hires are supposed to go through the expectations at the beginning of each employment period, then the evaluation at the end. In my experience, this rarely happens (I’ve had the “expectations” review perhaps twice, and have had to bug supervisors to give me my evaluation before leaving). Don’t trust any signature dates on an evaluation form. 😉
However, the narrative is interesting. I’m impressed that Willis took the time to write it, and to include such specific recommendations and future goals. Two themes that resonate in both Willis and Marsh’s texts are Marsh’s frustration with lack of support from above (by the “decision makers”) and keeping the crew intact and qualified. If Prescott is hoping to have another hotshot crew, I’d want to make sure these issues were addressed.
It also remains VERY interesting that Marsh, himself, did
NOT say it was ‘difficult’ to meet the ‘minimum’ standards
for his organization…
…Marsh specifically says his ‘challenge’ was that he
was UNABLE to meet those ‘minimum standards’.
That remains pretty much an admission, in writing, that
Eric Marsh KNEW that Granite Mountain was ‘faking it’,
(in some way)… even just 57 days before Yarnell.
Yes… I know… all of that was ( supposedly ) looked at
and all the ‘qualifications’ were ( supposedly ) met
( on paper, anyway ) …but there is still ( and always
will be ) that statement from Marsh himself…
Eric Marsh – May 3, 2013 ( 57 days before Yarnell )…
“It is challenging to run a nationally recognized program
with minimum standards and requirements that I am
UNABLE to meet.”
Investigations Basics 101: Never ignore a credible whistleblower. NEVER.
Marsh was whistleblowing in this performance evaluation. I have no doubt about that.
I think that employee evaluation was a
‘two way warning’. Willis was trying to
‘warn’ Marsh that if it didn’t cool it with all
the calls to Human Resources behind
Willis’ back… and include Willis in more
of the ‘decision making’… there was
gonna be trouble…
…but Marsh countered with his ‘challenge’…
that he was being asked to maintain a
group that had national ‘minimum’ standards
that he was UNABLE to meet… and if
that didn’t resolve soon… well… there
was gonna be trouble coming from his
direction a well.
It was all very friendly… but the messages
( in both directions ) were clearly there…
…just 57 days before Yarnell.
Good points, both of you. I was overlooking them.
Elizabeth—574 Delta could have been the converted crop duster that the now use as a small Air Tanker I saw it in 1 of the early pictures that GM took. It may be the one that was dropping on there line firing early in the day. It would probably be in the early IA orders and a close air port Air Tanker contract Like Prescott ? Maybe not the Id number you are looking for.
WTKTT— The positions above that you refer to as Hired are actualey resource ordered overhead. The only hired people on fires are contractors like equipment, Fire camp cooking units There are some contract crews for fire camp jobs.
Also the FS people you speak of would have been in pay status when they left there home base and stayed on pay until the fire finance put them off duty or off shift. If they were on the Fire Line as it sounds they were on duty.
They would also be qualified for lower assignments if they were Division Bosses,
Strike team Leaders—( Cats, Engines, Crews or a combination ).
Hope that helps it dose not sound like they had a specific assignment.
Mr. Powers… thanks.
Yes… it sounds like Hulburd, Clawson and Yowell just sort of
got ‘caught in the confusion’ between the Type 2 team and the
ordering of the Type 1 team. When Roy Hall asked Bea Day
to just ‘get him some people’ from Prescott early on Sunday,
even he didn’t know that he would be ordering a Type 1 team
just a few hours later.
By the time these fellas got there… not only had the Type 1
ordering started… things were just simply going sideways.
I still believe they were all ‘on the clock’, however, from the
time they arrived in Yarnell… through the time they were on
Shrine Road trying to ‘tie in’ with Sciacca and accidentally
capturing GM’s last radio transmissions… right on through
their participation in the actual ground rescue effort.
Clawson, Hulburd and Yowell were all hired ( according to the
ROSS ordering report ) as DIVS… but whether any or all of
them were ever given any actual DIVS assignments when
they arrived in Yarnell is still unknown.
I still wonder what Tony Sciacca’s own SAIR interview notes
mean when he said he was there on Shrine road and ‘tied in’
with Clawson, Hulburd and Yowell.
‘Tied in’ for what?
Had Sciacca himself already been given an official assignment
and since he was also PNF… Clawson, Hulburd and Yowell
were told to just go ‘tie in with him’?
To do what?
These are all still questions that need to be answered.
All we know right now ( finally ) is that PNF personnel Clawson,
Hulburd and Yowell WERE there… they WERE doing a LOT of
things ( in some official capacity ), they were in a position to
hear ( and witness themselves ) some pretty important things…
…but not ONE of them has ever been interviewed by any
official agency tasked with investigating what happened
that day in Yarnell. Very strange.
Also very strange is that the ROSS public record for that day
still says all of these men ( AND Darrell Willis ) remained
‘assigned to the Yarnell fire’ for the full 12 days… but I really
don’t think that is the case. Whether that was actually reflected
in any final invoicing still remains to be seen.
Question: If there is an ‘incident within an incident’ like this…
would personnel who are then re-assigned to that incident
still be considered on ‘Active duty’ for the length of the primary
incident itself… even if ( as is the case this time ) their duties
really became ‘off site’ things like making funeral arrangements
and all the other things that go with such an ‘incident
within an incident’?
When does an ‘Incident within an Incident’ such as this one actually
END… as far as the official reporting goes? When all the bodies have
been removed… or only when any personnel originally assigned to
the secondary incident have completed ALL related tasks?
What I am saying is… maybe ALL of these men really did
deserve to be listed as being on ‘active duty’ for the
entire ‘Yarnell Fire’ if they then became actively involved with
all those other things that needed to be done ‘off site’ as
related to this particular ‘Incident within the Incident’.
Or… maybe it’s just a mix-up in the ROSS system as to
who was actually on the Yarnell Hill fire for how long.
More to come on all this, I suppose.
As far as Willis I would bet he was sent home to deal with the personnel grief the fatalities and the families of his unit and did not work on the fire again. That is a normal process.
12 days on that fire would be a long period sounds like a stretch for out of area resources.
Sonny,
You posted a ways up there about being a ‘tour guide’ for the YHF. I will take you up on that if you’re interested. Myself and a few other WFF will be in Yarnell on Thursday, February 13th. We’re meeting at the Ranch House restaurant, cafe at 0900 (9:00 am).
I would be honored and most appreciative.
Let me know. Thanks.
Sonny,
DISREGARD the above post regarding February 13th. The other folks backed out. Another time maybe.
ok. I just now read this. Best way to reach me is snail mail for fast reply. P.O. Box 42 Yarnell Arizona 85362.
I am not online much. I have not been to the library to check here. I briefly skimmed for my name. Saw this. With Joy’s current health, I need a heads up that I can reply to you all and without her I cannot get to email area or phone. That is why I posted my mailing address. I am glad to see you postponed. I would of been too late. 3-4 hours too late.
WTKTT,
They could have worked in any position even though ordered as DIVS, hence the Misc. Overhead, like task Force Leaders, Strike Team Ldrs, Dozer Boss, etc.
Don’t know anything about ‘the list.’
You mean… like ‘Safety Officer(s)’?
Roy Hall’s own interview says Bea told him these guys were
‘on the move’ ( headed to Yarnell from Prescott ) circa 1:40 PM,
so they could have been in Yarnell as early as 2:00 PM or so.
Their vehicles ( all THREE of them ) were photographed up
at the ICP and parked ( and UTVs absent from trailers ) at
1515 ( 3:15 PM ). So counting the time it would have taken
to unload the UTVs… we KNOW they were all there by at
least 1510 ( 3:10 PM ).
Marty Cole, the only officially hired ‘Safety Officer’, was still sitting
in Prescott until 3:30 PM or so. He wasn’t even going to head
down there until he saw the official work order show up and
never even arrived that day until just before the deployment.
So it seems to me that… since the fire had already
transitioned to a Type 2 ( long )… and there was still no
required ‘Safety Officer’ on duty… that any one of these
guys hired as DIVS could have been fulfilling that role on
the fire until Marty Cole actually showed up… yes?
Maybe that IS what happened.
Maybe there WAS at least a ‘designated Safety Officer’
on duty long before the deployment.
Unless more documentation is uncovered about what the
heck was really going on at that ICP that afternoon… or
someone finally gets around to interviewing…
Jayson Clawson
Aaron Hulburd
KC (Casey) ‘Bucky’ Yowell
…it’s all conjecture.
I still find it unbelievable that neither the SAIT or ADOSH
even bothered to interview any of these guys… when they
are the ones that captured GM’s final moments and were
also the ones out there looking for them… and eventually
standing right there at the deployment site and confirming
all 19 deaths to fire command.
I wonder what else any of them might have heard that
day while up at the ICP… or at any other time?
Maybe the Prescott lawyers blocked all three of these guys
from even talking to the SAIT.
The SAIT obviously KNEW about them… unless Hulburd
just sent that Helmet-Cam video to them anonymously,
or something weird like that.
Actually… that even begs another question.
Aaron Hulburd was there for hours and hours.
Are we supposed to really believe that those few moments
in the Shrine Parking is the ONLY time that day he was
recording anything with his Helmet-Cam?
I wonder if it’s possible he had his Helmet-Cam running
at any time brefor or after the only video we have seen or
even (possibly) during the ‘ground rescue’ mission itself?
WTKTT,
NOT Safety Officers. None of them is Red Carded as a Safety Officer. They are all Red Carded in the Operations realm.
And regarding the Lewis Crew blunder. I still contend it was a leadership and quality control issue. Scrub oak brush is EXTREMELY volatile , especially brush that hasn’t burned in almost 50 years. It has heavy dead leaf understory and a great deal of dead component which acts as kindling. And could easily exhibit fire behavior as you described just based on reduced relative humidity and a little wind along with alignment being fully exposed to solar heating.
A burnout that you refer to would have drawn a lot of attention and chatter on the radio.
Reply to RTS post on February 9, 2014 at 8:51 pm
>> RTS said…
>> NOT Safety Officers. None of them is Red
>> Carded as a Safety Officer. They are all Red
>> Carded in the Operations realm.
Ah… okay… thanks.
As Mark Twain has said… “We are all ignorant…
just about different things.”
My ignorance here was that I was simply assuming
that anyone who is fully qualified to be an OPS
level Line Division Supervisor would ALSO
( automatically ) have the horsepower to also
function in the capacity of ‘Safety Officer’, if needed.
That just seemed to make sense to me.
I guess there’s yet another set of classes ( and
‘tests’ ) just for that position designation.
So even if anyone realized that a ‘Safety Officer’
was sorely lacking at some point that afternoon,
these ‘under the radar’ DIVS hires from Prescott
National Forest were NOT an option and
they still had to wait until Marty Cole got there
because he was the one ‘carded’ for that
and ‘ordered up’. Got it.
>> RTS also wrote…
>> And regarding the Lewis Crew blunder. I still
>> contend it was a leadership and quality control
>> issue. Scrub oak brush is EXTREMELY volatile,
>> especially brush that hasn’t burned in almost 50
>> years. It has heavy dead leaf understory and a
>> great deal of dead component which acts as
>> kindling. And could easily exhibit fire behavior
>> as you described just based on reduced
>> relative humidity and a little wind along with
>> alignment being fully exposed to solar heating.
>> A burnout that you refer to would have drawn a
>> lot of attention and chatter on the radio.
Fair enough. Thanks again ( ongoing thanks ).
You may be right.
They may have thought they were ‘done’, with
no ‘flare-ups’ visible anywhere… and then a minute
later they turned around and there were 40 foot
flames jumping over a 12 foot wide road over
on the east flank with little to no wind beforehand.
It’s possible, I guess.
So it might be safe to say that one of the PRIMARY
‘learning lessons’ to take away from this entire
incident would be…
Given a similar situation and similar fuel type…
just because you have been doing ‘mop-up’
operations with a crew of 13 men for almost
SIX HOURS on a small 2-4 acre area and no
fire growth whatsoever for all that time… don’t
you dare think you are DONE and send any
message to that effect to fire management.
They might accidentally release resources that
you are going to sorely need all of sudden.
If you report the fire as being OUT and/or
‘fully contained on all four sides’… make sure
you are TOTALLY RIGHT about that before
reporting any such thing to management.
WantsToKnowTheTruth on February 10, 2014 at 1:08 am said:
“If you report the fire as being OUT and/or
‘fully contained on all four sides’… make sure
you are TOTALLY RIGHT about that before
reporting any such thing to management.”
YES.
And precise vocabulary is important, too.
from NWCG’s glossary:
______________________________
Contained – The status of a wildfire suppression action signifying that a control line has been completed around the fire, and any associated spot fires, which can reasonably be expected to stop the fire’s spread.
Control Line – An inclusive term for all constructed or natural barriers and treated fire edges used to control a fire.
Controlled – The completion of control line around a fire, any spot fires therefrom, and any interior islands to be saved; burned out any unburned area adjacent to the fire side of the control lines; and cool down all hot spots that are immediate threats to the control line, until the lines can reasonably be expected to hold under the foreseeable conditions.
Mop Up – Extinguishing or removing burning material near control lines, felling snags, and trenching logs to prevent rolling after an area has burned, to make a fire safe, or to reduce residual smoke.
_______________________________
We also have a third state, when we actually call a fire “out” (usually after it’s been controlled and monitored for while, unless it was a single tree in sparse vegetation).
In the real world, it can be difficult to tell exactly when a fire is controlled, especially if it’s a large and dirty burn (a dirty burn has rough edges and pockets of unburned fuel). In my experience, ICs are pretty cautious about calling a fire controlled, and will walk the perimeter of the fire themselves before declaring it “contained” or “controlled”. It looks bad on everyone when a fire rekindles and escapes containment. A crew boss talking to the IC might have been a little fuzzier in their description, however (“we’ve got good line around it,” “it’s about wrapped up,” or “it’s pretty much contained,” for example).
Mop up may take place on quiet sections of a large, uncontained fire. Usually, though, the mop up phase doesn’t really begin until the whole fire is lined. I was under the impression that on Saturday the crews were still containing the fire (building line around it), not mopping up. Do the details or records exist that can more clearly tell us what was actually going on?
It would be very easy to get an unexpected burst of activity in the Yarnell fuels, even without any wind. Perhaps some duff ten feet into the interior was smoldering, the embers crept into a nice pocket of loose, light material right under some oak, and whoosh — suddenly you have twenty foot flames. Those flare ups create their own little convection currents, which can carry burning leaves across a road. (Another reason why even informal lookouts are important!)
WTKTT,
Good job on finally tracking on my post below.
Robert the Second
on February 2, 2014 at 3:25 pm said:
WTKTT,
Correct. The guys in the helmet cam video are from the PNF and worked on the fire as Task Force Leaders and other misc. fireline overhead.
FYI on ROSS orders:
A – Aircraft
C – Crew
E – Equipment (engines, dozers, etc.)
O – Overhead
S – Supplies
M – Medical
And I’m probably missing some.
Please recall the SAIT predetermined conclusion(s), selective interviews, misplaced evidence and statements only located or ‘found’ when called out on this issue
RTS… so you thought that just got ‘lost in the noise’, eh?
Can you elaborate any more on what else you seem to
know such as your statement…
>> (They) worked on the fire as Task Force Leaders and
>> other misc. fireline overhead.
Were they actually given DIVS assignments when they
showed up… like they were ‘hired’ to be… or did they get
other assignments?
What does ‘misc. fireline overhead’ mean?
Were they making peanut butter sandwiches?
RTS… followup…
Roy Hill’s own SAIT interview notes say that Bea Day
DID send him ‘a list of people that were moving without
O ( Overhead ) numbers’.
That ‘list’ ( document? ) has never showed up anywhere.
The SAIT never bothered to track this document down
even after Roy Hill admitted it existed.
Do you know who ELSE was on that list of people being
hired that day ‘off the radar’?
Sorry… brain fart… it’s ‘Roy Hall’, not ‘Roy Hill’.
Argh…moving people without resource orders…that is just so wrong. Honestly, it should take all of five to thirty minutes to let dispatch contact these people, work up a resource order, and fax it to their office. Usually, if there’s any delay in dispatch, it’s because the resources to be ordered aren’t answering their phones or email. It makes sense for an IC to call up their resources personally first (give them a heads up), but it’s stupid for those resources to take off without the resource order in their hands.
Such a mess.
I’m fond of the phrase: “Go slow to go fast.”
Who was flying “574 Delta,” and what was “574 Delta”? I don’t see it on the aviation resources list. Anyone?….
Where is this reference to ‘574 Delta’?
In a document?… or no?
Is it something in one of the AIR STUDY videos that no one
has public access to (yet)?
is there a listing for 574D? Phonetic Alphabet is used for any letters.
**
** THE REAL STORY OF THE HELMET-CAM VIDEO
As it turns out… there’s a complete ‘story within a story’ here that hasn’t been told
yet… and it has to do with exactly WHO took that now-infamous Helmet-Cam
video out there on the Shrine road on June 30, 2013… who was with him… and
what they all did AFTER that.
I apologize in advance for the LENGTH of this post… but there’s a big story to
tell here and then a lot of evidence to back it up that needed to accompany
the ‘story’ itself.
The ‘SHORT STORY’ section below is simply the ‘story’ itself.
The ‘LONG STORY’ section below has all the evidence and details.
The other part of this story ( the mysterious part ) is that NONE of this
was documented in ANY of the official reports… yet all the evidence
to support this story IS, in fact, contained within the actual interviews that
the SAIT conducted during their ( so called ) ‘investigation’.
NONE of the men who were actually there on the Shrine road taking this
crucial ‘Helmet-Cam’ video were EVER interviewed directly by the SAIT
even though ( as you will see below ) they continued to play a crucial
role in the incident following the video and following the deployment.
Okay… here we go…
It was long suspected that this Helmet-Cam video was taken by the
‘Globe Type 2’ crew somehow finding themselves on the Shrine road circa
the time of deployment.
That is NOT the case.
There are 3 vehicles seen in at various points in the Helmet-Cam video.
TWO of the vehicles were towing trailers with UTVs in them.
There are also only 3 individuals seen in the entire Helmet-Cam video.
Each of these 3 individuals were driving their own vehicles that day.
ALL THREE of these individuals were ‘special-hires’ from earlier in the day when
Roy Hall was operating ‘under the radar’ and still just ordering resources outside
of the ROSS reporting system as part of the Type 2 short-team assembly. That
was before Roy Hall actually ordered the full Type 1 team and he was just calling
Bea Day on the phone and asking her to ‘get him people’.
ALL THREE of these individuals in the Helmet-Cam video were simply
‘off-the-radar’ hires for the Type 2 (short) team that came from the Prescott
National Forest (PNF).
They are…
Aaron Hulburd – The actual Helmet-Cam video camera operator.
Jayson Clawson – The fella in the white helmet seen in the video.
KC (Casey) ‘Bucky’ Yowell – The fella in the beard we see in the road with radio.
The ‘story within the story’ here is that these are ALSO the same three people
who would soon accompany Blue Ridge Superintendent Brian Frisby and Blue
Ridge Captain Trueheart (Trew) Brown on the actual ‘ground rescue’ mission to
try and find the Granite Mountain Hotshots after the deployment.
** THE SHORT STORY
Sometime after Roy Hall arrived in Yarnell, and before the point where it
became obvious a Type 1 team was needed for Yarnell… Type 2 (short)
team IC Hall just kept calling Bea Day and asking her to ‘get him people’
that he thought he was going to need that day. Hall has already said
in his SAIT interview that he didn’t trust the ROSS ( Resource Ordering
and Status System ) system and that he didn’t want to deal with all
that ‘computer stuff’. Hall also said he was telling Bea Day to pull people
from Prescott, wherever possible, because it was ‘close by’.
In Roy Hall’s YIN notes… he himself states that he started this
‘off the radar’ ordering of people just after the 7:00 AM briefing at the
Yarnell Hill Fire station that morning.
That’s when Bea Day ordered up people like Tony Sciacca and
Marty Cole ( Safety Officer ) from Prescott.
What has NOT been fully documented is that Roy Hall also told Bea
Day to get him some ‘OPS and DIVS people’ from Prescott… and
that’s when she also ordered up the following Prescott people…
Aaron Hulburd, Jayson Clawson and KC (Casey) ‘Bucky’ Yowell.
Aaron, Jayson and Bucky got to Yarnell BEFORE Siacca and Cole.
These three traveled together in a 3 vehicle convoy from Prescott and
then pretty much ‘stayed together’ all of Sunday afternoon.
It is this 3 vehicle group that we clearly see parked on the side of the
road circa 1500 ( 3:00 PM ) in that video taken at that time by a crew
that was leaving the ICP up at the Model Creek School.
There is evidence in the YIN notes, however, that they arrived at the
ICP as early as 2:00 PM that afternoon.
When Tony Sciacca arrived in Yarnell until 1615 ( 4:16 PM ) or so.
According to his own SAIT interview… Sciacca never actually went
to the ICP. He says he went straight to the Shrine Road area,
parked his vehicle, and then ‘followed it back on foot’. It is unclear
how far back he went or whether he made it all the way to the Youth
Camp area where the Blue Ridge vehicles were still staged ( but
in the process of evacuating )… but he says he was there on
Shrine road in that timeframe ( 1615 ).
That is ALSO when Sciacca says he ‘got a call from Jayson Clawson’
( who was up at the ICP ) and then he ‘tied in with THEM’ ( meaning
Sciacca stayed on Shrine Road and all THREE of THEM ( Clawson,
Hulburd and Yowell ) came down to meet him.
There are also YIN notes that support this because at that time there
were already doing Helicopter bucket drops up at the ICP and there
was concern from Clawson and others that their pickups were no
longer safe… so that’s another reason all THREE of them left the
ICP at that time and came south to ‘tie in’ with Sciacca on Shrine Road.
So that is how these three PNF hires ( Clawson, Hulburd and Yowell )
actually ended up in the parking lot of the St. Joseph Shrine in this
timeframe. They were simply evacuating their pickups, trailers and
their two UTVs from the side of the road up at the ICP ( where they
are seen parked in the other video ) and were down there to ‘tie in’ with
Tony Sciacca ( according to Tony’s SAIT interview ).
That is how they were right there in that St. Joseph Shrine parking lot
in time for Aaron Hulburd to shoot the Helmet-Cam video circa 1639.
NOTE: Tony Sciacca is not seen in the Helmet-Cam video so its unclear
where he went or whether he did ‘tie in’ with these other three PNF hires
there, and had just left before the Helmet-Cam video began. It would
be Tony Sciacca’s interview notes that also go on to confirm that it
was Clawson, Hulburd and Yowell that would (quote) “Go looking for
Granite mountain on the two razors (UTVs)”.
At this point… we can now see exactly what Hulburd, Clawson and
Yowell did on the Shrine road.
Aaron Hulburd started shooting the Helmet-Cam video just before 1639
( unless there is more to that video that we still haven’t seen ).
When the video starts… Hulburd is the farthest WEST of the 3 men.
His Helmet Camera pans to the EAST for just a moment and that’s when
we see Clawson and Yowell just standing in the road at the back of
their own trucks parked just EAST of where Hulburd is now filming.
Hulburd keeps his Helmet Camera running as all three of the men
and evacuate the St. Joseph Shrine parking lot and head to a safer spot
about 1/4 mile EAST on Shrine road, where they stop again.
What has happened at that point in the video is that Yowell has stopped
his white pickup and trailer ( with UTV ) FIRST at this new location. Clawson
has stopped further EAST of Yowell ( with his aquamarine pickup and trailer
with UTV )… and when Hulburd catches up with them he passes Yowell’s white
pickup and trailer ( with UTV ) and stops BETWEEN the other two vehicles
with their trailers and UTVs.
Hulburd climbs out of his truck at that point and the moment he does is
when we get the clearest picture of Jayson Clawson, who is wearing the
WHITE helmet and walks right by Hulburd as he is exiting his pickup.
Jayson Clawson doesn’t say anything to Aaron Hulburd as he walks
by. He is obviously concerned about the radio traffic and Clawson is
walking WEST to get to the back of Yowell’s truck and trailer.
Hulburd turns his Helmet-Cam to the WEST as Clawson walks by him
and we see Yowell exit his pickup and follow Clawson to the back of
his trailer.
A few moments later… Yowell walks back EAST towards Hulburd, who
is still filming with his Helmet-Cam… and that’s when we hear Yowell
say “We need to clone a mobile so we can hear what’s going on”.
Hulburd then opens the door of his own pickup to retrieve a radio
and after he does… that is when we see him REMOVE the Helmet-Cam.
As Hulburd removes the Helmet-Cam… there are a few frames where
he takes his own ‘portrait’ and he is clearly seen looking into the camera.
Hulburd then (apparently) places the Helmet-Cam onto the top of the
pickup’s cab roof and it remains there for the remainder of the video.
A few moments after Hulburd places the Helmet-Cam onto the top of
the roof is when we get that full-frontal image of KC (Casey) ‘Bucky’ Yowell
standing in the road with his own portable radio.
Jason Clawson ( with the white helmet ) is apparently still to the WEST
at the back of Yowell’s trailer and he doesn’t return to the other two
men before the video ends.
AFTER THE VIDEO ENDS…
It is still unclear how long Hulburd, Clawson and Yowell stayed there on
Shrine road after the Helmet-Cam video ends but other evidence in the YIN
notes proves that all THREE of them did eventually end up down at the
Ranch House Restaurant parking lot with everyone else circa 1700 ( 5:00 PM ).
At some point after 1700… the ground rescue operation that was going to
look for Granite Mountain was organized and was comprised of the following…
Blue Ridge Superintendent Brian Frisby
Blue Ridge Captain Trueheart ( Trew ) Brown ( with his GPS unit ).
PNF hire Aaron Hulburd
PNF hire Jason Clawson
PNF hire KC (Casey) ‘Bucky’ Yowell
There were THREE UTVs in the ‘ground rescue’ party…
1) The Blue Ridge UTV ( with Frisby and Brown )
2) Jayson Clawson’s UTV ( He was probably by himself )
3) KC (Casey) ‘Bucky’ Yowell’s UTV ( with him and Aaron Hulburd in it )
This actually matches ALL the notes in the Blue Ridge Hotshots
SAIT interview when they said things like “the other 3 of the 5 who
were on site were the PNF hires for the type 2 team” and “Clawson
confirmed 19 expired” and “Bucky and Aaron were pretty quiet”.
( See LONG STORY section below for all these actual YIN quotes ).
The YIN notes also say that Clawson and Yowell DROVE their vehicles
back to the Shrine area which is where they unloaded the other two
UTVs and then ‘broke through’ to the west via the Shrine road area
in order to search for Granite Mountain.
It was probably Frisby and Brown who ‘led the way’ since they must
have simply taken a left at the Youth Camp, then carefully followed
that cutover road where all the dozer work had been over to the
Sesame area… and then decided it was safe to proceed north
in the Sesame area to the Sesame Trail road itself and then
head west towards the old-grader and, eventually, on up to the anchor
point where GM had been working. Clawson, Hulburd and Yowell had
NOT been down in that area at all that day so they must have been
following Frisby and Brown in their UTV who were simply trying to retrace
the route they took around NOON that day for that initial face-to-face
meeting with Marsh.
The reason the ground rescue team was charging out to that exact location
at that time is because the Ranger 58 DPS helicopter had ALREADY
found those ‘yellow packs’ out near the anchor point ( which turned out to
be just leftover bladder bags ) and Ranger 58 was already identifying that
location as the probable deployment site.
Ranger 58 ended up ‘hovering’ over those ‘yellow packs’ they were seeing
out at the anchor point until the THREE UTVs arrived because they knew
they were headed to that area but Ranger 58 had no way to communicate
with them directly.
NOTE: According to all of the DPS people onboard the Ranger 58 helicopter
( both pilots and DPS medic Eric Tarr ) there were, in fact, THREE UTVs that
were ‘down on the ground looking for Granite Mountain’.
When Ranger 58 was sure the THREE UTVs had located the ‘yellow packs’
that they had been hovering over… Ranger 58 continued searching and it was
shortly after that when DPS medic Eric Tarr recalled hearing something about
a ‘ranch’… and then Ranger 58 flew a direct search line towards the Boulder
Springs Ranch and found the actual shelters deployed on the ground.
Ranger 58 called in those coordinates, which were relayed to the 5 firefighters
in the 3 UTV ground search party. They headed south in the UTVs towards
the same saddle where GM originally left the two-track road.
It was still BR Captain Trueheart Brown who was the first to RUN down from
the saddle to the deployment site. DPS medic Eric Tarr had been dropped
off 500 yards from the site in a small clearing just 100 yards north of the
ranch before this time and Eric Tarr was already at the deployment site
before the ground rescue team reached the saddle. DPS medic Tarr’s own
post-incident report says he was there on site when he ‘saw’ the ground rescue
team ( in their UTVs ) arrive up on the saddle… and he ‘waved them down’.
BR Captain Brown made the descent ( on foot ) from the saddle down to the
deployment site in just 4 minutes. It is unclear how long it took the others
to also descend ( on foot ) but within a few minutes all FIVE of them
( Frisby, Brown, Hulburd, Clawson and Yowell ) were all there at the deployment
site along with DPS medic Eric Tarr.
The YIN notes actually confirm all this. ( See LONG STORY section below ).
It was Brown who initially counted 18 but it was Jason Clawson who was the
one who did his own on-site count and ‘confirmed 19’ over the fire command
frequencies.
This is when the Blue Ridge YIN notes also mention things like “Clawson
confirmed 19 fatalities… Aaron and Bucky were pretty quiet”.
All FIVE of the firefighters then walked east to the Boulder Springs Ranch, and
DPS medic Eric Tarr followed them there after he finished putting pink flagging
tape on the burned tree stumps on the north side of the deployment site.
After reaching the Boulder Springs Ranch and talking to the owners for a
few minutes… all SIX of them then walked BACK to the deployment site.
We know that BR Captain Brown then took 10 minutes to walk from the
deployment site back up to the saddle to his UTV… and at least two of the
other 4 firefighters must have as well since that’s when all three UTVs were
driven back to town… but it’s unclear whether Frisby or Clawson ( or both
of them ) stayed there at the deployment site at that time. It’s actually likely
that NONE of the FIVE members of the ground team stayed at the deployment
site and ALL of them simply walked back up to the saddle, got back in the
THREE UTVs, and headed back to Yarnell the way they came ( Sesame trail
to Cutover road to Shrine road… then back out to Highway 89 ).
There is no real evidence where ANY of the FIVE ground rescue people went
after that. The Blue Ridge notes mention ‘heading up to the ICP’ after the
ground rescue mission but there is nothing about where the PNF hires Hulburd,
Clawson and Yowell went following that ground rescue mission.
** THE LONG STORY
**
** THE VEHICLES
The real key to identifying these men in the Helmet-Cam video was
first identifying all the VEHICLES that are clearly seen in the video.
A lot of ‘official markings’ including license plate numbers are clearly seen in
the Helmet-Cam video itself… but it was when this same group of THREE
vehicles was also found in that other video parked on the side of the road
at 1515 up at the ICP that identification became really simple.
The TITLE of that video is…
VID 20130630 151521 240 – Yarnell Hill Fire video provided by AZSF crew
The crew that took the video is NOT the crew that takes the Helmet-Cam
video. This video simply accidentally captures the vehicles of the crew
that WILL take the Helmet-Cam video ( Calwson, Hulburd and Yowell ).
At exactly +0:36 seconds into the video… it accidentally capture the
entire ‘Helmet Cam Video’ crew VEHICLES ( all 3 of them ) parked there
on the side of the road up by the ICP.
They are the EXACT same vehicles that are GOING to be seen in the
Helmet-Cam video shot at the St. Joseph Shrine parking lot one hour and
twenty three minutes from now… trailers and all.
Only the vehicles are there. No crew. So they all must have been INSIDE
the Incident Command Post at the moment THIS video was shot OR
‘bombing around’ in their UTVs since they are not in their trailers at 1515.
In the video… vehicles are passed by in this order…
1) First seen is the regular-size aquamarine standard pickup ( minimal
access-cab style with hard-enclosed bed ) with the white UTV trailer.
This one appears later in the Helmet-Cam video just beyond the
2 firefighters ( Clawson – White helmet, Yowell – Black helmet )
seen when the Helmet-Cam operator ( Hulburd ) pans just
east in the Shrine parking lot for a moment. The white UTV trailer
ride-out is DOWN in this video and the UTV is not there so they might
not have been in the ICP at this point. They might have been out
‘bombing around’ Model Creek in there UTV’s up NEAR the IC
in this 1515 timeframe. Standard USFS Forestry ‘Shield’ logo
is on the door. White stripes on side. Says ‘Fire’ in the stripes
and Vehicle ID ( In big white letters on front ) is DV-93.
DV stands for ‘Division Chief’.
The 9 in 93 means ‘Prescott National Forest (PNF)’.
The ‘3’ in 93 means ‘PNF Ranger District 3’.
That would be Jayson Clawson.
Matches his job description AND his ‘Unit code’ ordering designation
in the ‘WildCAD’ system at the Prescott Interagency Dispatch Center
(AZ-PDC) Resource Status Availability page… which looks like this…
ID, Resource, Status, Location
DIV-93, Jason Clawson – PNF, DO OutSvc, District Office (Bradshaw)
There is also a moment when Clawson walks by Hulburd in the Helmet-Cam
video itself and once I had a name to search I found photos online that
verify it is, in fact, him.
2) Next ( at +0:37 in this video ) comes the first white extended cab
pickup truck that will be seen in the Helmet Cam video. This one is
has the ‘access cab’ configuration ( big side window but no double
doors ) and ALSO has a UTV trailer attached. Same standard
USFS Forestry ‘Shield’ logo on passenger door.
The markings on the side door clearly say…
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
US GOVERNMENT
( SHIELD LOGO – TOP: FOREST SERVICE )
( SHIELD LOGO – MIDDLE: U (Picture of Tree) S )
( SHIELD LOGO – BOTTOM: DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE )
EQUIPMENT NUMBER: 2038
This is KC (Casey) ‘Bucky’ Yowell’s vehicle.
Yowell is the one most clearly seen in the Helmet-Cam video itself
standing in the middle of the road with his portable radio in his hand.
Other pictures found online with a simple Google search for the
words ‘Casey’ and ‘Prescott National Forest’ match exactly.
His ‘Unit code’ ordering designation in the ‘WildCAD’ system at the
(AZ-PDC) Prescott Interagency Dispatch Center Resource Status Availability
page looks like this…
ID, Resource, Status, Location
CAPT 2, KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell, Out of Svc, District Office (Chino)
3) Next VEHICLE… ( at +0:38 in the video )
This one is same exact white extended cab pickup configuration
as (2) but this one has forest green double stripes on the side.
This is also the one that has the flat-style emergency lights rack
mounted on the cab roof. The other white pickup does not have this.
This one also has the black-metal ‘deer chucker’ mounted on the front
whereas the other white pickup has no ‘deer chucker’.
Green stripes on side have the word ‘Fire’ inside them right over
the rear wheel cowlings. Same standard USFS Forestry ‘Shield’ logo on
passenger door. Vehicle ID ( In Forest green letters on front ) is
AZ-PNF (Prescott National Forest ).
This is Aaron Hulburd’s vehicle.
He is clearly seen in the Helmet-Cam video in a full frontal close-up
after he takes the Helmet-Cam off and goes to place it on top of
the cab of this vehicle.
Other pictures found online with a simple Google search for the
words ‘Hulburd’ and ‘Prescott National Forest’ match exactly.
His ‘Unit code’ ordering designation in the ‘WildCAD’ system at the
(AZ-PDC) Prescott Interagency Dispatch Center Resource Status Availability
page looks like this…
ID, Resource, Status, Location
FUELS 9, Aaron Hulburd – PNF, Out of Svc, Prescott Fire Center
** THE ROSS ORDERING SYSTEM LOGS SHOWING
** PRESCOTT NATIONAL FOREST HIRES FOR JUNE 30, 2013…
The ‘official’ Arizona Forestry link that supposedly has links to ALL public Logs
and Resource reports regarding the Yarnell Hill Fire has NOTHING that says
anything about Roy Hall’s ‘off the radar’ hires of Clawson, Hulburd or Yowell.
THIS is the indepenent (PUBLIC) link for the resource report that lists Jayson
Clawson, Aaron Hulburd and KC (Casey) ‘Bucky’ Yowell. This is the ROSS
system that Roy Hall said he didn’t want to deal with, but his requests for
people ( through Bea Day ) are showinig up here. At some point… Bea Day
must have input these ‘PNF resource orders’ FOR Hall since Hall is on record
saying he “didn’t want to deal with all that computer stuff”.
ROSS = Resource Ordering and Status System Reports
http://fam.nwcg.gov/gacc/swcc/predictive/intelligence/daily/ddsswcc/cognos/incidents/incident_resources_Yarnell_Hill.pdf
Full cut/paste from page 1 of the ROSS resource document above
START OF ROSS REPORT DATA
Incident GACC: Southwest Area Coordination Center
Incident Dispatch: Arizona Interagency Dispatch Center
These are the HEADERS for the individual report column data shown
below, separated by COMMAS.
Clawson, Hulburd, WILLIS, and Yowell were all hired June 30 as DIVS.
Incident Name,
Incident Number,
Req Number Prefix,
Req Number,
Assignment Name.
Fill Code,
Qual Status,
Res Prov Unit,
Res GACC,
Mob Date,
Res Status,
Days Assigned
YARNELL HILL AZA1S-130688, O, O-163, Clawson, Jason W (AZ-PDC), DIVS, Q AZPNF, NMSWC, 6/30/13, At Incident 12 days
YARNELL HILL AZA1S-130688, O, O-161, Hulburd, Aaron (AZ-PDC), DIVS, Q, AZPNF, NMSWC, 6/30/13, At Incident 12 days
YARNELL HILL AZA1S-130688, O, O-18, WILLIS, DARRELL (AZ-ADC), DIVS, Q, AZPRC, NMSWC, 6/29/13, At Incident 12 days
YARNELL HILL AZA1S-130688, O, O-160, Yowell, Kc (AZ-PDC), DIVS, Q, AZPNF, NMSWC, 6/30/13, At Incident 12 days
END OF ROSS REPORT DATA
SIDENOTE: This online ROSS report for the Yarnell HIll Fire shows
Willis, Hulburd, Clawson and Yowell as all having been working the
Yarnell Hill Fire for the full 12 days. I don’t believe this is actually the
case for ANY of them.
** SAIR Investigation notes that mention Clawson, Hulburd and Yowell…
YIN page 51
Interview with Tony Sciacca – Line Safety Office – N. end (1 hr), E. end (1hr)
9:10 a.m. July 12 – Interviewers: Randy, Jimmy Rocha, Jay Kurth
1600-1615 While driving to Yarnell, there was a lot of people and traffic.
I felt we needed to close the road. The intensity of the flank was building.
The wind was building. I thought all houses were were evacuated and I
parked on Shrine rd and followed it back. There was a big wind at 20-25 mph
and the column was laying over deep. There was a line of fire from Shrine to 89.
Got a call from J. Claus on ( Jason Clawson ) and tied in with them.
NOTE: This seems to suggest that Tony Sciacca got to the Shrine road
area around 1615 and ‘parked’ there somewhere and then ‘followed it
back’ on foot. Not known where. It then suggests that Clawson and the
others ( Aaaron Hulburd and KC Yowell ) weren’t there on Shrine road
yet. He ( Sciacca ) supposedly got a call from Clawson and ‘tied in
with them’. So could that be why they all showed up on Shrine road
at all… because that’s where Sciacca was and they were just trying
to ‘tie in’ with him? Where did Sciacca go? ( He’s not in the Helmet-Cam
video )?
Sciacca’s interview notes go on to say…
Jayson Clawson, Yowls went looking for Granit Mountain on the two razors.
NOTE: That’s just a transciber’s error. ‘Yowls’ must mean KC Yowell.
Clawson and Yowell were the ones pulling trailers with UTVs.
YIN page 8
Interview with Blue Ridge Hotshots ( Frisby, Brown, Fueller, Ball )
Interviewed by Godot, Jay, Jimmie, Tim, Jim, and Mike 07/10/2013
Around 1500 they want to pull the dozer out to go north for structure protection.
On the nth end they hear confusion and this is before the column starts to rise.
There seeing black smoke, it’s dark, fl are impressive, spotting to the nth the
fire is running towards ICP. Jason Clawson says, “another western day” they say
they have an hour before the trigger point to start evacuating. BR knows they
don’t have an hr.
NOTE: So BR notes put Jason Clawson up at the ICP circa 1500. This
matches the time their trucks are seen parked up there in the video.
YIN page 10 ( Still interview with Blue Ridge )
Tied in with the crew at the restaurant everyone understood what had happened
a few guys snapping photos of the fire not because of the deployment Brian said
put them away. Started gathering a task force of medical people, paramedics,
drivers, medical equipment, but there was no real access. People coming in/out
all over. B & T met w/ Ball 2 T6 engines and a WT. they were told to go in and
do something. The fire was pushing hard it was passed Ball called Travis and
said let no one else in. Propane tanks going off, houses burning, power lines
drooping. The task force was to wk off of Tac 1 and to stand by until they got
access. Then Holbert, Dowl, and Clawson drove back to youth camp and they
punched through.
NOTE: Holbert, Dowl and Clawson really means Hulburd, Yowell and Clawson.
This is confirmed in the next note a few paragraphs later. ( See below ).
‘Bucky’ is nickname for KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell and ‘Aaaron’ means ‘Aaron Hulburd’.
DPS ship was flying around near GM, then he went to the grater and BR couldn’t
talk to the ship. The ship went to where the bladder bags were and BR hiked to
them, they relayed to B33 that wasn’t the site. Then there was traffic about
another site and the ship gave the lat/long and Trew copied it down. Trew started
running down the ridge, and I mean running. He saw where the ship set down
and then bailed off. He says it was all slicked off. There was confusion because
DPS told him 18. At the ranch house restaurant Brendan gave Trew the manifest
and Trew had it and counted 19. Medic said 18, Trew counted 19, Clawson got
on scene and confirmed 19 and then Clawson left to the home owner. Bucky and
Aaron were all pretty quiet. 5 went down then the DPS officer. 6 all together. They
all walked to the house. The other 3 besides Brian and Trew were Prescott NF guys
who were ordered w/ the T2 team they were sent down to help.
NOTE: This suggests that there were FIVE people out there searching.
Frisby and Brown in one UTV
Clawson, Hulburd and Yowell in the other two UTVs.
Probably Clawson by himself and Hulburd and Yowell in the other one.
NOTE: When it says that Brendan gave ‘Trew’ the manifest this means
he gave it to Brown BEFORE they left on the rescue trip.
Brown got down there first but soon thereafter… Jason Clawson was the
one who was ‘on scene’ and confirmed 19 dead, and then they are ALL seen
walking to the homeowner ( the ranch ) with the Blue Ridge GPS unit.
ALSO NOTE: ‘Bucky’ is nickname for KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell and ‘Aaron’
means ‘Aaron Hulburd’.
NOTE: This all matches now. ‘5 went down then the DPS Officer’.
The FIVE would be Frisby, Brown, Clawson, Hulburd and Yowell.
When it says the ‘other 3 besides Brian and Trew were Prescott
NF guys’ this matches Clawson, Hulburd and Yowell who Bea Day
‘ordered up’ for Roy Hall as part of the Type/2 team with no ‘O’
numbers for them in the ROSS ordering system ( yet ).
Page 29 of YIN
Interview with Roy Hall – 7/8/2013 – 10:30 a.m.
Interviewers: Jay Kurth, John Phipps, Mike Dudley, Jimmy Rocha
At the 7 a.m. briefing – Leader intent. I asked “where are the aircraft that were
ordered? because there was a long list . Defer to dispatch center. There were
a boat load ordered. The comment from the Safety Officer was “Because
orders got placed out of region and you violated the ordering system. I called
Prescott and ordered Tony Sciacca and Marty Cole (safety officers).
NOTE: This doesn’t mention Clawson, Hulbert and Yowell but since this is when
Hall says he ‘ordered’ Sciacca and Cole from Prescott ( because Prescott was
close, as Roy will say later ) then it also might be the time he supposedly
told Bea Day to ‘get me some OPS people’ as well and that’s when Bea Day
also put in the requests for Clawson, Hulbert and Yowell.
13:40 There is concern from the Yarnell side. There is a push on the east end
south of Moddle Creek. Bea Day called and said several ops people were on
the road including Jayson Clawson. Bea Day sent a list of members that
moved with no O numbers.
NOTE: So Clawson had been ‘ordered up’ as part of the T/2 team just as the
BR notes said and Clawson was ‘on his way’ to Yarnell by 1340 ( 1:40 PM ).
That means he could have been there as early as 1400 ( 2:00 PM ) or so.
NOTE: ‘O’ numbers means the ‘O’ number from the ROSS ( Resource
Ordering and Status System ) computer system that Hall said he hated using.
Bea Day was ordering these resources from the Prescott National Forest
outside of the ROSS system so there was, at that time, No ‘O’ number for
them. Willis, Clawson, Hulburd and Yowell eventually would end up with the
following’ ‘O’ numbers when they were finally recorded into the ROSS
system…
ROSS Request numbers for Prescott people…
O-18 WILLIS, DARREL (AZ-PDC) Fill code: DIVS Arrived: June 29, 2013
O-160 Yowell, Kc (AZ-PDC) Fill code: DIVS Arrived: June 30, 2013
O-161 Hullburd, Aaaron (AZ-PDC) Fill code: DIVS Arrived: June 30, 2013
O-163 Clawson, Jason W (AZ-PDC) Fill code: DIVS
SIDENOTE: Where is this ‘list of members that moved with no O numbers’ that
Hall says Bea Day sent him? Was that an email? What? Where did it go?
Who has it now?
YIN page 36
Interview with Rance Marquez – DIVS Z
July 11, 2013 – 0900
Interviewers: Jimmy Rocha, Jay Kurth, Tim Foley, John Phipps
1615 – Came on ATV’s Casey, Jayson Clausen and Bea were at the ICP and
were worried that the pickups would burn.
NOTE: ‘Casey’ must mean KC ( KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell ). ‘Clausen’ obviously
means ‘Jason Clawson’. Not sure if this reference to ‘Bea’ actually means
Bea Day or not. This would appear to mean that Clawson, Hulburd and Yowell
were still all up at the ICP circa 1615 and that’s when they ‘came on ATVs’ and
loaded them up and moved all three of their trucks and trailers to ‘meet up’ with
Sciacca who was now ‘parked’ down on the Shrine Road. See Sciacca’s
YIN interview notes.
YIN page 17
Interview with Marty Cole
Safety Officer ( who didn’t arrive until just before deployment )
July 12, 2013 – 11:40 PM
Interviewers: Randy Okon, Jimmy Rocha, Jay Kurth
About 16:40 Granite 7 called. I didn’t know who it was. Heard TA try to get intel.
I left there and went to the restaurant. I saw Blue Ridge and found out that
Granite Mountain had deployed. Blue Ridge had Brendon. I put his gear in my
truck and said I would take care of him.
17:22 A team was organized with Cougan Caruthers as medical. We
ordered 4 helos and several ambulances were on standby.
17:30-18:00 (guess) The fire was coming to the town. I off loaded Brandon
and went to the Ranch House. I told Todd that the exit was going to be
compromised. Told Todd that there were houses on fire and the fire had
crossed the road. Everyone was trying to establish communication with
Granite Mountain. I drove back through the smoke column that was lying
across the road. There was an engine sitting in the road with fire around it
doing nothing. Aaron, Jayson and Buckie were going in to look for Granite
Mountain. DPS had found packs but there weren’t theirs. While I was sitting
along the highway, I heard Jayson had called Todd and said 19 found….
no EMS needed. Went to town and tied in with Daryl and Todd. Everyone was
in shock. I left at 14:00 the next day.
NOTE: More confirmation that it was Aaron Hulburd, Jayson Clawson and
KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell that went with Brian Frisby and Trew Brown to look for
GM in those 3 UTVs and ALL of them ended up at the deployment site.
** END OF SAIT Yarnell Investigation Notes ( YIN ) pertaining to
** Clawson, Hulburd and Yowell.
SAIR
There is absolutely NO mention of Jayson Clawson, Aaron Hulburd or
KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell anywhere in the official SAIT report.
ADOSH
There is absolutely NO mention of Jayson Clawson, Aaron Hulburd or
KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell anywhere in the official ADOSH report.
WFAR
There is absolutely NO mention of Jayson Clawson, Aaron Hulburd or
KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell anywhere in the official Wildland Fire Associates
Report ( WFAR ).
WTKTT, in your last three paragraphs, you state (using “all caps”) that neither the SAIR, nor the ADOSH report, nor the WRA materials discuss Bucky, Jayson, and Aaron in any depth. This, however, goes back to “relevance.” These reports cannot mention every single small detail. Mind you, if Bucky, Jayson, and Aaron had shown up at 10 a.m., I WOULD consider that relevant, b/c they could have jumped in and helped organize to prevent the chaotic breakdown that later ensued. However, if they did not appear until after, say, noon, it was probably too late to stem the chaos. I mention this not to criticize you, but, rather, because the fact that you are using all caps suggests that you are intending to convey to the reader that the failure to mention these three men is somehow a meaningful failing on the part of those official materials. I do not believe that it is.
(Kudos to you for identifying the three men, however. Good job.)
Reply to Elizabeth post on February 8, 2014 at 6:24 am
>> Elizabeth wrote…
>>
>> WTKTT, in your last three paragraphs, you state
>> (using “all caps”) that neither the SAIR, nor the
>> ADOSH report, nor the WRA materials discuss
>> Bucky, Jayson, and Aaron in any depth.
Yes. ( Except it’s WFAR and not WRA ).
They are simply facts. Capital letters were used because,
well… in the King’s English… capital letters are SUPPOSED
to be used for acronyms.
Would you rather I had used ‘sair’, ‘adosh’ and ‘wfar’?
>> This, however, goes back to “relevance.” These reports
>> cannot mention every single small detail.
Small detail? Really?
THREE ‘under-the-rader’ hires by Roy Hall who were
‘on the clock’ at the ICP, who were ALL hired as ‘DIVS’,
who end up filming Granite Mountain’s last moment, and
then end up being the ones helping discover them and
confirm their deaths over the command channels…
…and they are NOWHERE listed as having been part
of the command structure AT ALL.. nor is the obvious
public ROSS resource report showing their hires
anywhere in the SAIT documents?
Seriously?
>> Elizabeth also wrote…
>>
>> Mind you, if Bucky, Jayson, and Aaron had shown
>> up at 10 a.m., I WOULD consider that relevant, b/c
>> they could have jumped in and helped organize to
>> prevent the chaotic breakdown that later ensued.
>> However, if they did not appear until after, say, noon,
>> it was probably too late to stem the chaos.
Elizabeth… with all due respect… do you even read
your posts before you send them?
How you can possible say ( in the same sentence )
that a 10:00 AM appearance of three off-the-radar
Division Chief hires would be ‘relevant’ but ‘a little
later than that’ would NOT be?
See above. There IS evidence they were there at the
ICP ( participating in an unknown command level
capacity ) as early as 2:00 PM.
I don’t understand the importance YOU are placing on
a simple 2 hour window between 10:00 AM ( relevant )
and NOON ( not relevant ). Can you provide more
detail for your reasoning there?
You also seem to forget that based on what happened
that day… what people who were present at the
command level and participating in that fiasco called
the Yarnell Hill Fire did NOT do ( but SHOULD have )
is just as relevant as what they DID do ( if anything ).
The key is ‘having the details’.
>> Elizabeth also wrote…
>> I mention this not to criticize you, but, rather, because
>> the fact that you are using all caps suggests that you
>> are intending to convey to the reader that the failure to
>> mention these three men is somehow a meaningful
>> failing on the part of those official materials.
Wow. See above.
That’s an awful knee-jerk reaction and a lot of imagineering
for you to do based on the ‘fact’ that someone just used
capital letters for acronyms when to have done anything
else would have been grammatically incorrect.
The statements above are just FACTS and I felt it
relevant to point them out.
People can read whatever they want to into that
( as you obviously just did ).
>> Elizabeth also said…
>> I do not believe that it is.
Fair enough…
… but that’s because… once again… YOU are trying to tell
other people what YOU believe is relevant with regards
to what happened in Yarnell on June 30, 2013… and what
YOU believe is not ( relevant ).
That’s fine. You’ve stated your only interest in this
investigation any number of times and you are entitled
to pursue only what interests you… but as I told you
up above… PLEASE don’t criticize the rest of us for
being interested in ALL the details just because
YOU are not.
Speaking of RELEVANCE…
I’m going to ask you again for the TWELFTH time…
Do you have any plans to post a public copy of that
AIR STUDY video that (supposedly) has the captured
radio traffic between OPS2 Paul Musser and DIVSA
Eric Marsh?…
…or are you making your own ‘relevance’ decision
about that as well?
Please don’t misconstrue my simple question as
even trying to be antagonistic in any way.
The material you obtained via FOIA/FOIL is your own.
You can do whatever you want with it.
All I want to know is what your PLANS are for a
particular piece of that material.
If you are NEVER going to post that particular AIR STUDY
video it would simply be nice to know.
WTKTT, I was not criticizing your capitalization of “ADOSH” (for example). I was criticizing your capitalization of the word “NO” in the sentence “There is absolutely NO mention of Jayson Clawson, Aaron Hulburd or KC ‘Bucky’ Yowell anywhere in the official ADOSH report.” I apologize for the confusion.
The fact that you capitalized the word “no” suggests that you are trying to emphasize the word “no,” to convey your belief that the ADOSH report (and the other two reports) *should* have mentioned Clawson, Hulburd, and Yowell. I was trying to express the fact that I do not feel as strongly as you do about the failure of the ADOSH and other reports to mention Clawson, Hulburd, and Yowell. I apologize for the confusion.
If you are entitled to have your view that everything is relevant, I am allowed to have the view that NOT everything is relevant, and I am allowed to share that view here, on this thread.
(Also, where are you getting the view that Clawson, Hulburd, and Yowell were PAID (you said “on the clock”) for the time that they spent on the fire from 2 p.m. until whenever? Yes, they are in the “ROSS,” but that doesn’t mean that they were paid for an entire day’s work, right? Or have you independently “FOIA/FOIL’d” those records?)
Reply to Elizabeth post
on February 8, 2014 at 5:58 pm
>> Elizabeth said…
>>
>> WTKTT, I was not criticizing your
>> capitalization of “ADOSH” (for example).
>> I was criticizing your capitalization of
>> the word “NO” in the sentence “
Well… what you actually said was…
:: I mention this not to criticize you
Okay. whatever.
>> Elizabeth also said…
>> I apologize for the confusion.
NO ( yes… emphasis is mine ).
I apologize. I thought you really were
taking umbrage at someone simply
capitalizing standard acronyms.
>> Elizabeth also wrote…
>> If you are entitled to have your view that
>> everything is relevant, I am allowed to
>> have the view that NOT everything is
>> relevant, and I am allowed to share that
>> view here, on this thread.
Of course you are… but you’ve stated
your position clearly any number of times.
If it doesn’t directly relate to the only thing
YOU want to know ( the WHY )… then it’s
‘irrelevant’ to you.
We get it.
You don’t have to keep repeating it.
Just skip to the next message if you
find something is irrelevant to YOU.
>> Elizabeth also said…
>>
>> (Also, where are you getting the view
>> that Clawson, Hulburd, and Yowell were
>> PAID (you said “on the clock”) for the
>> time that they spent on the fire from
>> 2 p.m. until whenever?
Are you suggesting they agreed to respond
to Roy Hill’s request via Bea Day for
‘OPS people’, agreed to be DIVS resources
for a Type 2 ( at that time ) fire command,
then hitched up their trailers, loaded up their
UTVs, and schlepped all the way to Yarnell
just out of the kindness of their heart?
It is not even LEGAL for them to do that
( for insurance reasons ).
My assumption is that they were ‘on the
clock’ and getting paid… even if it turned
out they were not going to part of the
Type 1 team after the next transition.
Also… do you really think 3 men would
have been allowed to accompany Frisby
and Brown on a dangerous rescue
mission into a still-burning area if they
were NOT, at least, officially on the
payroll that day?
If a bunch of non-paid volunteers
were allowed by management to put
their own lives in danger like that on
that afternoon… the insurance policy
violation implications alone would require
their own ‘investigation’.
So yea… I’m sure they were ‘on the clock’.
For how much money… and for how long?
Dunno.
If the SAIT had even bothered to interview
any of these men perhaps we would
know more about that.
>> Yes, they are in the “ROSS,
>> but that doesn’t mean
>> that they were paid for an entire day’s
>> work, right?
According to the records in the ROSS,
they ( Willis, Hulburd, Clawson and Yowell )
were ‘Assigned’ to the Yarnell fire for
the full TWELVE days ( and NOT just one ).
Does that mean the taxpayer-funded
ROSS system is total horse manure…
or did these men actually end up getting
PAID for 12 full days of work on the
Yarnell Fire?
>> Or have you independently
>> “FOIA/FOIL’d” those records?)
I have no actual detailed expense reports
for the Yarnell Fire… or anything from
Prescott or the Prescott National Forest
that might show how much they
might have been making off these
‘hires’, either. I wish I did.
Do you? Does ANYONE?
So yes… until I see detailed records…
I am assuming they wouldn’t have
even been there unless they were SURE
they WERE going to get paid.
See Marty Cole’s SAIT interviews and his
own unit log for that day.
The reason he didn’t even arrive in Yarnell
until just before the deployment was
because he was delaying his departure
until he was SURE the ‘work order’ went
through and that if he headed down there
at all… he WOULD be getting paid.
In his own notes… the very first thing he
did when arriving at the ICP was to
check in with the ‘Financial Officer’ ( as
he should ) to make sure everything was
in order and he would be getting paid.
I am assuming that was standard procedure
that day and Clawson, Hulburd and Yowells
did the same thing ( make sure they were
going to be paid ).
I really would like to know if they actually
were paid for ’12 days on the Yarnell Fire’
like the ROSS record says they were…
because none of them WERE actually
there for that amount of time.
** QUESTIONS YOU DIDN’T ANSWER
Can you elaborate on your ‘2 hour window’
for it ‘being relevant’ whether Clawson,
Hulburd and Yowell’ were there? That
still confuses me and you dodged
that question. I really would just like to
know what you were thinking there.
Once again… for the THIRTEENTH time…
Do you have any plans to post a public
copy of that AIR STUDY video that
(supposedly) has the captured radio traffic
between OPS2 Paul Musser and DIVSA
Eric Marsh?
NO is a valid answer… but I would
appreciate any answer at all just so
I don’t have to keep asking you about it.
Followup regarding Clawson, Hulburd and Yowell…
In some cases… even information that comes across
as ‘sketchy’ or ‘incomplete’ in the SAIT investigators notes is
actually made clearer if you look at other information they
had available to them.
This case of the details of the actual ‘ground rescue mission’
is one of those times.
Marty Cole of Prescott was the ‘Safety Officer’ that was ordered
up early afternoon for Yarnell but didn’t end up arriving there until
just shortly before the actual deployment because he delayed
his departure for Yarnell until he saw the actual order come
through to him in writing from the Prescott Dispatch Center.
Marty Cole was interviewed by the SAIT, but even some of
those notes from his interview are vague.
As it turns out… the SAIT actually had Marty’s own hand-written
unit log notes from that day in their possession as well, which
have entries that are much clearer than anything recorded
by any SAIT person during his interview.
Marty hand-wrote this UNIT LOG at 2200 ( 10:00 PM ) on
the night of June 30, 2013.
SOME of Marty’s SAIT interview notes have SOME of the
same information… but there are ‘bits and pieces’ of
information that never made it into the SAIT documents
and things in the SAIT interview that aren’t in his log.
Unlike his SAIT interview, however, in his handwritten
UNIT LOG Marty Cole absolutely verifies that Jawson Clawson,
Aaron Hulburd, and KC (Casey) ‘Bucky’ Yowells were THERE in
Yarnell at the time of the deployment and they WERE part of
the ground rescue team that day.
His exact hand-written note ( with his own spelling mistakes )
was as follows…
“Arron Holberg, Jasson Clawson, KC Yowell made access
into the fire area looking for the crew.”
That hand-written document from Marty Cole was part of the
FOIA/FOIL package inside the document labelled…
C01 – ASF000417-INV to 420-INV.PDF
It is here in Mr. Dougherty’s Dropbox under the
Documentation > Safety Folder…
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/02ue6bnjp6nazkm/O66jbXw3Yr/Safety/C01%20-%20ASF000417-INV%20to%20420-INV.PDF
It is hand-written and the document is just a scanned copy
of the original and is not ‘searchable’ so ( for future reference )
here is the TEXT version of the FULL transcript of Marty’s Cole’s
UNIT LOG from June 30, 2013 ( spelling mistakes and all )…
START OF MARTY COLE HANDWRITTEN UNIT LOG
UNIT LOG
1. Incident Name: Yarnell Hills
2. Date Prepared: Jun 3013
3. Time Prepared: 2200
4. Unit Name / Designators: Safety
5. Unit Leader ( Name and Position ): Cole
6. Operation Period: Day
7. Activiity Log ( Continue on Reverse )
Time – Major Events
1330
Genn Jokie from the AZ state type III team called me and asked
if I would come to the fire in Yarnell to help out with safety. I said
I would and waited for the order from Prescott NF Dispatch.
1345
Tony Sciacca called me and said he was enroute to Yarnell.
I told him I would be there as soon as I got the order.
1430
Received order and travel to Yarnell. Drove through large rain
storm Williamson Valley to Prescott. Got fuel in Prescott, left
Prescott via Iron Springs Rd. encountered large amount of rain
west of Prescott. Before entering into Skull Valley observed
large column over Yarnell area. Also encountered large wind
30 to 40 mph just before Skull Valley. Attempted to make
contact with Tony Sicacca and Darrell Willis but only got
answering machine. Called Glen Jokie he said he would
forward info about the winds to IC Hall at ICP.
Arrived at ICP in Peoples Valley. Checkin in with finance
and talked to medical unit. Asked in camp if there was
anyone would could clone a radio. No one could.
Proceded to the fire area to get someone on the fire to
clone radio. Going from Peoples Valley to Yarnell observed
Extreme fire behavior moving from the North to the South.
Saw one of the AZ State truck along the highway asked
for a clone. Rain Drops were encountered at this time.
When I aproched him alot of Radio traffic, he asked me
to stand by while he listen to the traffic.
Listening to the traffic I heard a excited voice Granite
Mountain 7 calling to I believe Air Attack.
Air Attack tried to get him to calm down. I heard Todd
Able call Air Attack to find out what the problem was.
Few minutes went by and I heard Eric Marsh GM sup
call Air Attack and said they had been cut off from their
escape route and were preparing to deploy fire shelters
and would call back when everyone was in shelters.
No further communication was heard. Deployment
occurd in division A.
Incident within a Incident was established, Todd Able
being Grant Mt. IC.
Cougan Cruthers – Medical Group
Steve Emery – Traige Group
Gary Cordes – Treatment Group
Granit Mt Air Attack was established.
DPS Ranger 58 Recon.
Packs were seen 34 13.70W, 112 4750 N.
Arron Holberg, Jasson Clawson, KC Yowell made access
into the fire area looking for the crew.
Search party found all victims.
Multiple homes destroyed in Yarnell. Extreme fire behavior.
Fire crossed 89 made multiple runs on town.
* All times are approximate
END OF MARTY COLE HANDWRITTEN UNIT LOG
Wow, this is really EXCELLENT work, WTKTT. This really fills in some info I’ve been wondering about (such as who took the helmet-cam video, who the PNF guys were, and why they’re so obscured in the dispatch records).
This does bring up questions for me (which, I supposed, only Roy Hall could have answered?):
* Just what were the PNF three ordered for? I thought they were supposed to be filling crew/squad boss requirements for the Lewis type II team. I suppose I may have assumed this because they didn’t have separate order numbers (I can’t remember exactly why I came to this conclusion). Sounds like maybe not?
* Is the ROSS system (or dispatch) actually screwed up in AZ, or was Hall just too lazy/busy to use it? It may seem like a minor detail, but I find it extremely important. I know dispatch was having issues with WildCAD, but that is an entirely different system. I haven’t heard of any real problems with ROSS in the last few years, and it’s absolutely vital that ICs and dispatch trust each other to use it (for accountability, communication, and safety reasons). The fact that Marty Cole was waiting for confirmation of his order was responsible on his part (showing up at a fire without your resource order is generally called “self dispatching,” and frowned upon). But it also makes me wonder if he specifically mentioned waiting for confirmation because ROSS is undermined on a regular basis. I see this as a HUGE potential safety issue that would need resolution.
Again, this is awesome work. I’m really impressed with how you pulled all this together into a cohesive narrative.
NEW– Just watched McDonough on Boise Ch. 7 NBC News announce he is in Boise and working for National Association of Wild land Fire Fighters Was hired a month ago as a Employee in Public Relations.
Reply to Bob Powers post on February 6, 2014 at 6:14 pm
Vicki Minor ( Executive Director of the Wildland Firefighter
Foundation ) and her son Burk Minor seem to be ‘good people’.
Vicki saw a need for her organization some years ago and
she went about creating it.
NOTE: In case anyone was wondering ( I was )… there is
apparently NO real connection between Vicki and Burk Minor’s
Boise, Idaho based ‘Wildland Firefighter Foundation’ and the
Brentwood, Missouri based ‘Wildland Firefighting Associates’
company that was contracted by ADOSH to assist in their
investigation of the Yarnell Hill Fire.
They are both ‘private’ companies… but there doesn’t appear
to be any shared staff or Board Directors.
Brendan himself received support/help from Vicki’s organization
in the days/weeks following the Yarnell incident.
Here’s the Prescott area ABC channel’s print story ( with
a video that has an audio track of the telephone interview
with Brendan McDonough about his new job ).
ABC15 – 02/06/2014
Brendan McDonough update:
Survivor of deadly Yarnell wildfire takes new job
http://www.abc15.com/dpp/news/region_northern_az/prescott/brendan-mcdonough-update-survivor-of-deadly-yarnell-wildfire-takes-new-job
From the article…
PRESCOTT, AZ – The only member of an Arizona firefighting crew to survive a deadly 2013 wildfire has a new job in which he says he hopes to help others with post-traumatic stress disorder.
McDonough’s last day as a Prescott employee was Jan. 24, city spokesman Pete Wertheim said.
Acting Prescott Fire Chief Eric Kriwer said McDonough resigned and was in good standing when he left his city job.
McDonough recently started working for the Boise, Idaho-based Wildland Firefighter Foundation. ( Vicki and Burk Minor ).
** END OF ARTICLE
Here’s a transcript of the ABC telephone interview…
Brendan McDononugh ( on the telephone )…
I was in a dark spot then ( after the incident ).
I really… um… I didn’t really know what to do.
I’ve had multiple times where I’ve just cried and cried…
and… um… I missed ’em so much.
My two and a half year old daughter (that) needs her father,
and I knew I couldn’t let myself to get to a certain point
because she needed me.
Video Narrator: So he got help… reaching out to the
Wildland Firefighter Foundation… a non-profit group that
supports families in the wildland firefighter community.
Brendan: The amount of hearing that I got when I came up
to the Wildland Firefighter Foundation… in the few days
I was here… took so much weight off my shoulders.
The tragedy is always gonna be there… and I’m always
gonna miss ’em… but I’m… you know… feel like I’m now able
to continue on with my life.
With the (fire) season that we’re expecting… I don’t want to be
the person to say it… but there’s gonna be more deaths.
I wanted to… to be able to help… because I felt how good
I was… and I’m just sitting there and I’m like… wow… how many
other people like me are out there that haven’t gotten help…
that haven’t talked to somebody.
Video Narrator: A part of McDonough’s role will be traveling
around the country raising awareness about the importance of
supporting firefighters.
Thanks for the info I messed up on the name. You corrected all of that. McDonough sounded very positive hopefully this will be a good fit for him.
Good for him. He definitely has the experience to be a “been there, done that” ambassador for this organization. I wish him the best, and hope his efforts assist others, that require help.
I can’t say I blame him for not sticking around to stay on the fireline. That would be incredibly difficult for even the strongest willed person..
Best of Luck Brendan!!!!!!
Observer said, “Yes, Marsh and Steed led those men down that hill. Yes, ultimately they bear responsibility. But, I feel that there is more to the story. From the mismanagement of the fire early on to the ultimate conflagration that took the lives of the 19 men and burned homes in the Yarnell area-God didn’t have plan (despite what Willis said) and I believe that a whole lot of folks didn’t have a plan either. Or had a very bad plan.”
AMEN
I have said stuff along these lines before, but sometimes things get a bit overlooked in all the noise.
Yes, the 10 & 18 ARE the gold standard, BEFORE and AFTER any need for an investigation, BUT, a new avenue needs to be addressed, both in training and investigations. That specifically is that, the WFF community needs to take a hard look at how external factors may cause well-trained firefighters to get tunnel vision and ignore those very standards. As many of you know, there were MANY external factors that day, which taken individually may not have amounted to the level of an external causation for tunnel vision, but which compounded may have contributed in such a way that promoted the incident. These types of factors WILL occur again to put stressors on a crew, and being trained to identify them as hazards as well, may save lives.
Obviously there was tunnel vision in play that day. The ultimate tunnel vision had to be in how the behavior of that fire was assessed. Standing on the ridge, looking at the fire and contemplating moving, one would have had to convince themselves the fire was not going to cross their planned route. Otherwise the idea of moving would have been insane. Marsh must have locked onto an assumed fire behavior (i.e. moving southeast) and not thought it was going to change. Not wise given the weather and the potential for wind shifts, but it just had to be his thought process.
Why the tunnel vision? Was it due to external pressure from above, the pressure of the culture of the PFD, or was it just a bad read? According to RTS, the clues for a shift were there in the smoke column. Probably we will never really know.
Trying to identify all the stressors that lead WFF to have tunnel vision may be an enormous task. And people who have tunnel vision often fail to recognize it while it is occurring. Maybe it still will be better to make the rules such an ingrained part of the culture, that no matter the stressors present, no matter the tunnel vision, the need to follow the rules will serve to protect as a last defense. Right now it seems some have deemphasized the rules. And most of the time when you break them you get away with it. Hence you come back to “bad decisions with good outcomes”, which some (RTS) have maintained was behind this disaster.
Also they lost control of the outcome of the move when they did not evaluate and use LCES. I’ve been tired I’ve worked 50 days strait, I’ve worked long shifts 24-36 hours. The one thing you train and train for is you put Safety First in your brain and use it with every move and decision you make.
If you start bending the rules or ignoring them you percentage of survival decreases. Bad decisions with good outcomes. Is Bad Safety planning tunnel vision by one person can be corrected by another if you have open dialog with in a crew structure. The Foremen and Asst. can and should give input.
Reply to Robert the Second post on February 4, 2014 at 2:48 pm
** SATURDAY… CONTINUED…
>> RTS said…
>>
>> …the fire behavior indicated on photos and videos indicated black smoke
>> at 0900 and 60′ to 100′ flame lengths at 1000 to 1030. This was indicative
>> of rock-and-roll fire behavior for the day for those that were paid attention.
>>
>> Fire Order Number 3 – Base all actions on CURRENT an EXPECTED
>> fire behavior.
>>
>> I’m gonna say that the Lewis Crew abided by that and didn’t burn a mile of
>> line and then lose it as the rumor mill goes.
RTS… thanks… but just to clarify…
We’re talking about 0900, 1000 and 1030 on SATURDAY, right?
I don’t automatically see the ‘photos’ you are referring to with anything
near 60′ to 100′ flame lengths… until maybe MUCH later on Saturday,
just before dusk or so AFTER the thing had ‘jumped the Jeep Trail’.
There was (apparently) no ‘rock and roll’ at all Saturday until AFTER it
jumped the jeep trail.
From 10:30 AM to 4:30 PM ( SIX long hours ) it was more like ‘slow jazz’.
The ‘Fernandez’ photos and his ‘fly-around’ of the fire at 10:00 AM
Saturday ( before the first half of the Lewis crew was let down there )
show basically no fire actvity at all. Just a little smoke… and not even
much of that to speak of.
Do you recall which Dropbox folder the 0900-1030 photos are that you
are referring to?
UPDATE: I did actually find a small piece of detail about what (supposedly)
happened Saturday afternoon that I hadn’t seen before. It was a one-liner
in the short ‘preliminary report’ about the Yarnell Hill Fire that the SAIT
released just a few days after they started their investigation.
That ‘initial’ SAIT report was just a quick ‘summary’ of what happened from
Friday through Sunday… but it did have this one specific thing in there about
Saturday that did NOT make it into any of the final report(s).
That ‘initial report’ from the newly-assembled SAIT had this brief
one-line explanation for the moment when the fire ‘jumped the jeep trail’…
“At about 4:30 p.m. a small unburned island on the east side of the
fire flamed up and spotted across the two track jeep road on the
east side (called a “slopover”).”
Up until that moment ( 4:30 PM ) the fire had STAYED at an estimated
size (all day) of no more than 2-4 acres… even since the first full evaluation
on the ground by the Lewis crew circa 10:30 AM.
So, according to the SAIT itself, 4:30 PM is when the ‘second Yarnell fire’
got started. It was this specific ‘slopover’ from some sudden ‘flare up’
in some (supposed) ‘small pocket’ near the jeep trail… with only light winds.
Hmmmm…
Actually… here’s the whole ‘fire size and time estimate’ entries for
Saturday morning and afternoon from that initial SAIT report…
Saturday, June 29, 2013
Early morning helicopter reconnaissance ( 10:00 AM – Fernandez photos )
showed the Yarnell Hill Fire the only active fire of the four lightning ignitions
sighted yesterday. The helicopter reconnaissance estimated the fire at
eight acres with very little fire activity showing. Later, ground estimates put
the fire at two to four acres.
A six man squad from Lewis Crew and one BLM helitack crewman were flown
into the fire by the BLM light helicopter. Firefighters made progress hot-
spotting the few active areas and mopped up (extinguishing burning material)
along the two track jeep road.
The west side of the fire was in very large rock bluffs and considered too
steep to treat with aerial retardant.
The east side of the fire was a two-track jeep road that fire had not crossed.
NWS-Flag issued a weather alert at approximately 3:00 p.m., noting a
thunderstorm moving south from Kingman which was delivered from
the I.C. by radio to firefighters.
The storm cell dissipated BEFORE reaching the fire.
A spot weather forecast for 4760’ elevation called for dry (11% relative
humidity), hot (105 degrees) LIGHT winds (6-7 m.p.h.), slight chance of
thunderstorms with very little chance of moisture.
At about 4:30 p.m. a small unburned island on the east side of the fire
flamed up and spotted across the two track jeep road on the east
side (called a “slopover”).
The I.C. requested SEATs and an Air Attack return to the fire.
A total of 13 firefighters on the hill were committed to digging fireline to stop
the growth of the slopover.
At 5:30 p.m. the I.C. reported the slopover at approximately two acres,
making the entire fire an estimated six + acres total.
( Original 2-4 acre size for SIX HOURS, since 10:30 AM, now 6+ acres ).
At 7:38 PM ( 3 hours after the ‘slopover’ event at 4:30 ) the fire was estimated
at 100 acres and was moving laterally along the ridge to the north, with active
burning in isolated areas of dense fuel pockets.
( 94 acre growth in 3 hours whereas no growth at all above original 2-4 acre
size all day during the SIX hours between 10:30 and 4:30 ).
SUMMARY
So from 10:30 AM to 4:30 PM ( A span of SIX HOURS ), the Lewis crew
was (supposedly) doing nothing but ‘mop-up’ operations on a 2-4 acre
(contained) area with (quote) “very little fire activity”, even starting at 10:30 AM.
Suddenly, at 4:30 PM ( with only LIGHT winds )… something happens.
Some little ‘pocket’ supposedly ‘flares up’ ( with light winds ) on the east
flank right near the jeep trail and ‘spots over’ the jeep trail… getting out of
control before 13 guys ( who are now out of chainsaw gas ) can do
anything about it… and no fixed-wing or helicopter support available
at that time.
Something still doesn’t sound quite right about this ‘moment’ when
(apparently) the ‘second Yarnell Hill fire’ actually got started.
I mean… seriously?… 13 guys have SIX hours to do nothing but ‘mop up’
on just 2-4 acres… and something is ‘missed’ during those SIX long hours
that was big enough to ‘flare up’ and suddenly jump a 10-12 foot firebreak
without them being able to get a handle on it?
I have planted ( on foot ) every inch of an entire 4 acres with corn seed in
less than 6 hours… and that is just ONE person… and also includes
stopping for lunch.
I did, in fact, check that entire ‘jeep trail’ with Google maps distance measuring
tools and it’s not like it’s some tiny little overgrown rarely-traveled two-track.
It was more like a real ‘road’, as dirt trails go.
It narrowed down to 7 or 8 feet wide in just a few spots but the entire thing
averaged about 12 feet wide, with no ‘center growth’. Some places were
much wider and qualified as bona-fide ‘clearings’.
Google satellite images checked were taken on April 9, 2013, only about 80
days before the Yarnell Hill Fire.
Whatever it was that suddenly ‘flared up’ ( that no one seemed to have
been able to or even bothered to ‘mop up’ or put out for SIX HOURS
prior to that?? ) must have been quite a ‘flare up’ to have jumped that
fairly wide fire-break road so quickly.
I think it’s STILL possible that was an attempt to ‘burn off’ that little ‘pocket’
on the east flank down to the jeep trail and then call it a day… but the day
then took another (unexpected) turn.. and the rest is now history…
…but I suppose only more interviews with people who were actually
out there on Saturday could prove that one way or the other.
It’s pretty obvious from the SAIT ‘preliminary report’ on the fire that they
did, in fact, talk to someone who was actually OUT there on Saturday
where the fire actually was… but ( oddly enough ) their own SAIT interview
notes released in the FOIA/FOIL package contain no interview notes
whatsoever with anyone from the Lewis crew.
BTW: Here is the SAIT document in the Dropbox being referred to above…
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/02ue6bnjp6nazkm/t0nEwg9ajn/Information%20Managment/B01-B09%20-%20ASF000009-INV%20to%2041-INV.pdf
Correction for some time/acreage values above.
The fire did NOT grow 94 acres in 3 hours.
The ‘slopover’ only grew to 2 acres in the FIRST hour, then
it took TWO hours for it to grow another 94 acres.
Paragraph above should have read like this…
At 5:30 p.m. the I.C. reported the slopover at approximately
two acres, making the entire fire an estimated six + acres total.
( Original 2-4 acre size for SIX HOURS, since 9:30 AM, now 6+ acres. Only a growth of 2 acres in the FIRST hour after slopover ).
At 7:38 PM ( 3 hours after the ‘slopover’ event at 4:30 ) the fire
was estimated at 100 acres and was moving laterally along the
ridge to the north, with active burning in isolated areas of dense
fuel pockets.
( 94 acre additional growth in 2 hours whereas no growth at
all above original 2-4 acre size all day during the SIX hours
between 9:30 and 4:30 and only a 2 acre growth for the
entire FIRST hour following the ‘slopover’ event ).
I have not written here previously. However, I read this site daily. I am amazed and impressed by the work done by many of you. I suspect I am one of many that have not written but visit often.
I didn’t know any of the GMIHS. I do live in AZ and this tragedy struck me in a deep way. I ordered books on prior WFF fatalities. I researched the topic on the internet. I waited for the Yarnell Hill investigations with great anticipation. I also figured that no matter what those revealed, there would be some group of folks that would cry foul. It happens everytime. And yes, it happened again. However, in this case, there is a LOT more than the SAIT revealed. That is why your work is so important.
Yes, Marsh and Steed led those men down that hill. Yes, ultimately they bear responsibility. But, I feel that there is more to the story. From the mismanagement of the fire early on to the ultimate conflagration that took the lives of the 19 men and burned homes in the Yarnell area-God didn’t have plan (despite what Willis said) and I believe that a whole lot of folks didn’t have a plan either. Or had a very bad plan.
At any rate, thank you for your interest and hard work in this endeavor. I know it isn’t pleasant and I can almost feel the pain and anger in the “old” hotshots who post here. I can “hear” the anger and sadness in others, such as Marti, WTKTT, Robert 2, Elizabeth etc.
I hope that one day, prayerfully soon, those that know things will come forward, if for no other reason than to end some of the speculation that has to be painful for the families and friends of the hotshots.
I hope that one day someone can create a map of the GMIHS movement that day in relation to the fire movement (you all have it figured out, but I can’t get my arms around it-I’m geographically challenged.)
Again, I’m sorry for the loss of these men. I’m sorry for the hurt that their families and the WFF community feel. I feel bad for those of you who have worked so hard here only to have your motives questioned. You have taken time from your life, and it some cases it seems, pocketbooks to do the job that the taxpayers spent money on, but failed to get from the investigations. John Dougherty deserves great credit for sharing this site in such a free and open way.
God Bless You all. I hope you find some answers. I know I will keep reading. There is more to this than simply “Stuff happens.”
Reply to Observer post on February 5, 2014 at 6:25 pm
>> Observer wrote…
>>
>> From the mismanagement of the fire early on to the ultimate
>> conflagration that took the lives of the 19 men and burned
>> homes in the Yarnell area-God didn’t have plan (despite what
>> Willis said) and I believe that a whole lot of folks didn’t have
>> a plan either. Or had a very bad plan.
I think God still wants to know everything that happened ( or
did NOT happen but SHOULD have ) on that Friday, Saturday
and Sunday… just as much as the rest of us do.
>> Observer also wrote.
>>
>> I hope that one day someone can create a map of the GMIHS
>> movement that day in relation to the fire movement (you all
>> have it figured out, but I can’t get my arms around it-I’m
>> geographically challenged.)
Stay tuned. That’s coming soon.
There is, in fact something that we know exists that would
certainly help with that, if it was not too badly damaged in
the burnover.
Robert Caldwell was wearing a Garmin Oregon 450 handheld
GPS unit that day. It would have recorded ALL movements.
That GPS unit belonged to the Prescott Fire Department.
It must have survived the burnover in at least a recognizable form.
It was never submitted as evidence to ANYONE.
There’s a story right there all by itself that still needs to be told.
>> Observer also wrote
>> I hope you find some answers.
We already have ( some, anyway… but there’s more to know ).
>> I know I will keep reading.
>> There is more to this than simply “Stuff happens.”
You bet. That’s obvious at this point.
There are also MANY fatherless children now, and possibly
countless grandchildren, who are going to want to know
as much as possible about why they had to grow up WITHOUT
a father or a grandfather around.
We ( the adults in the room ) at least owe it THEM to make
sure that information is available.
This event is historic.
History has a way of making sure the TRUTH comes out.
just skimming through for questions—short on time.
Thank you for speaking this online—I needed to see it.
I have been dealing with personal life shifting events and loss.
I think this site is very important to so many including us.
There is a grieving process as you stated in your words for all of us watching or writing—Nineteen men gone and there is more to be told. Thank you for this comment.
We all here do not seek notierity yet it is nice to have a sweet person like you to make the time as you did and we appreciated it.
One of my biggest questions since the fire and who I wish I could learn who did the final retardant drops for 6-30-13 why they choose to drop at the least residential area versus common sense since I was on top of the Weaver Mountain mountains and I saw that fire move parallel towards the Glen Ilah community bordering the Shrine/Yarnell area—why didn’t you drop the final retardant from the Ranch House border going towards Sesame towards Shrine with the final drop—even if you never knew where the 19 men were or not-logically speaking from the mountain top looking down that would have been the only option versus the less residential area. I will forever be disappointed in your final drop unless you can educate me WHY you did it the way you did it. Save agricultural land and etc or many homes???
Marti… obviously THANK YOU for your time and your skills.
Amazing work.
Totally understand about the ‘time’ thing, however.
If anyone thinks any of this kind of diligent evidence examination is easy…
…think again.
This thing isn’t going away.
It is the greatest blunder in the history of Wildland Firefighting followed
by one of the most worthless and obfuscating investigations in that
same agency’s history.
This is going to be talked about ( and examined ) for a LOOOONG time.
As for whether anyone really seems to be paying attention…
At the bottom of this page is a ‘hit counter’.
Here are the statistics for just the last 24 hours…
02/04/14 – 01:50 PM – 57,361 hits
02/04/14 – 03:09 PM – 57,492 hits
02/04/14 – 03:13 PM – 57,507 hits
02/04/14 – 09:52 PM – 59,246 hits
02/05/14 – 12:36 AM – 59,596 hits
02/05/14 – 01:50 PM – 62,342 hits
That’s pretty much 5,000 hits in just 24 hours ( 4,981 ).
The world IS watching.
Also remember ( always )…
When you have eliminated the impossible…
Whatever remains… however improbable… must be the TRUTH.
Accepting the improbable is, oftentimes, not even the hard part.
Where the ‘rubber meets the road’ is the work of eliminating the impossible.
Namaste
Followup…
>> marti wrote…
>>
>> And why in the world was Globe Type 2 Inmate Crew’s
>> Overhead, as you have id’d, at the Shrine Area when they
>> were? WTF??? What in the world was gong on with that????
Well… as it turns out… I was never certain that’s who they
were and a little more examination of the evidence has
proved it was NOT them.
The ‘Helmet-Cam’ people were actually 3 of the ‘off the radar’
hires that Roy Hall directed Bea Day to ‘accomplish’ that
afternoon. They are all ‘special hires’ from the Prescott
National Forest.
The camera operator was Aaron Hulburd ( PNF )
The fella in the white helmet is Jayson Clawson ( PNF )
The fella with the beard and no mustache that we
see standing in the road with his portable radio
is another PNF hire with first name ‘Casey’.
More about this very soon.
Marti… If you have to get back to your “real job”, as you are losing income by dedicating your efforts to this project, so be it.
You have done an awesome job of helping to uncover details that would have easily gone unnoticed. It is not without appreciation by those on this site, as well, I am sure by the families of the lost and most of all John Dougherty.
Who do we tell and where does it go from here?
I suspect that as it sits right now John is taking some pretty detailed notes, as well as penning some pretty harsh questions that will go up the chain of command. We have to have faith in Johns abilities and integrity, that he will not let this be swept under the carpet, which I highly doubt the passionate posters (WTKTT, Bob Powers, etc)
I have not been following the board much lately, it has gotten too technical for me (locations of photos and metadata, etc etc) BUT I did watch the Globe crews tribute video and it brought me to the following conclusions: (You may or may not agree).
1) The initial Fire was mismanaged. The responding agency failed to connect the dots of what they had (observed fire behaviour) and WHAT the potential was (Expected Fire Behaviour), and then resourced to that prediction.
2) When the original plan fell apart, they should have pulled EVERYONE back to defendable lines (I have no experience in it, but it does not appear to me that you can build guard in the chapparal brush type without working off an existing anchor (ie. the highway).
3) With Plan A off the rails, in one hand and the forecast in the other, it should have been a no brainer… BACK OFF, Set up Structural Triage and wait for it to come (or attempt aerial igntions in front of it to contain).
4) What was at risk once Plan A derailed?? Thousands of acres of crap brush that is not worth a penny, so let it burn. Prep the houses. Not like they were trying to save high value old growth timber or what have you.
5) The I/C and/or OPS SHOULD have called a full retreat of all resources. They should have had this in the back of their mind, first thing in the morning, to decide when the line in the sand would trigger Plan B or C. You don’t keep going with Plan A, after it is an absolute failure, thinking the plan will still work.
6) The SAIT did not do a truthful, respectful, decent investigation of the factors that led up to this tragedy. It was so poorly constructed that a bunch of internet posters like the group we have here, figured out more than their Special Team of Investigators.
7) The ODSH report shed more light, started to point out the failures of the command structure and management of the fire, which MAY HAVE ultimately lead to the demise of the crew.
8) The crew itself is responsible for their safety and should have told who ever gave tehm the order to go to teh Ranch House to “pound sand” be it from a supervisor in the Command Structure, or within the Crew itself.
AND THE BIG ONE:
If the truth is not researched and a true fact finding come out of this event, in order to prevent a recurrence………..
“IT WILL HAPPEN AGAIN”……..
Respectfully submitted,
RIP GMHS, I hope your deaths are not in vain…
The SAIR was never intended to really find out what happened and serve as a basis for lessons learned. It was simply done because it had to be done, and they wanted to create as little legal risk and controversy as possible. I think it was always intended that discussions in the WFF community and the staff ride process would be where lessons were learned. I suspect this is how lessons are usually arrived at, not imposed from some report, but learned by studying on the part of the crews and outside fire experts.
It will be interesting to see what lessons do come from Yarnell Hill. I certainly have no insight or expertise. I do wonder if the “rules” will be looked on in a new light. From following this story, it seems as if there has been a school of thought within the WFF leadership that has viewed the rules as a bit of a relic, really not in tune with modern firefighting. Almost as if they were guidelines. Even the co-leader of the SAIT expressed this thought. There may also be the belief that the rules have been taught, and tragedies have still occurred, so they are not sufficient to preventing disasters. I think there may be a great deal of fallacy in these thought processes. There can be a lot of wisdom in time-honored principles, and while there are always new ways of doing things, all new things are not always better. Moreover, just because teaching the rules did not prevent disasters, the problem does not appear to be the rules, but the fact that people did not follow them. That should not lead you to abandon the rules, but rather to make them even more a part of the culture.
Just following a couple of the rules violated that day might well have kept them alive. No lookout, no eyes on the fire, no escape route – any one of those might have saved them. Whether a new emphasis on following safety rules is one of the lessons learned remains to be seen, it certainly has seemed to be a theme almost everywhere WFF have commented.
Reply to mike post on February 6, 2014 at 12:04 am
>> mike said…
>>
>> The SAIR was never intended to really find out
>> what happened and serve as a basis for lessons
>> learned.
Really?
Coulda fooled me ( and the taxpayers of Arizona )…
… and the Governor of Arizona, too.
To: Janice K. Brewer
Governor of Arizona
From: Scott Hunt
Arizona State Forester
Arizona State Forestry Division
Office of the State Forester
1110 W. Washington St., Suite 100
Phonenix, AZ 85007
(602) 771-1400
Serious Accident Investigation Team
Delegation of Authority
On the afternoon of June 30, 2013, nineteen members
of the Granite Mountain Type 1 Hotshot Crew from
Prescott, Arizona were killed while fighting the Yarnell
Hill Fire.
As the State Forester of Arizona, I authorize Jim Karel’s
Serious Accident Investigation Team to conduct the
accident review of the Yarnell Hill Fire. This delegation is
to perform the serious accident review of the Yarnell
Hill Fire with the final objective of providing a FACTUAL
and MANAGEMENT report for ACCIDENT PREVENTION.
Signed by…
Scott Hunter – 7-3-13
Jim Karels, Team Leader, SAIT – 7-3-13
Mike Dudley, Deuputy Team Leader, SAIT – 7-3-13
Original letter…
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/02ue6bnjp6nazkm/_ectd3JhvW/Correspondence/A01-A04%20-%20ASF000001-INV%20to%208-INV.pdf
>> mike also said…
>>
>> I think it was always intended that discussions in the
>> WFF community and the staff ride process would be
>> where lessons were learned. I suspect this is how
>> lessons are usually arrived at, not imposed from some
>> report, but learned by studying on the part of the crews
>> and outside fire experts.
You may be right.
That might have always been the only intention and even
the letters to the Governor of Arizona were complete
horse manure.
…but that sort of makes what is going on here ( and
other public places ) even more important, yes?
To even accomplish what you just suggested… it is
still necessary to know WHAT REALLY HAPPENED.
If The SAIR is no more than a feel good investigation in this new day and age then the Wild Land Fire Fighting community has truly lost its way.
We might as well just wait for the OSHA report and deal with those findings.
The old investigations included.
Safety equipment failures what needed change.
Fire overhead plans and implementation.
Fire line safety implementation.
Adequate overhead and crews and equipment.
Fire weather forecasts and critical fire behavior annalists.
Site specific annalists of deployment site
(BY WILDLAND FIRE INVESTIGATION TEAM)
These are not accusation statements but scientific information searches to help future Fire Suppression.
None of the above were actually done but left to Fire Fighters to wade thru with no direction.
Reality check this was a State Fire. USFS and BLM Regions will not do anything unless pushed by the ground pounders. IT IS NOT THERE PROBLEM IT IS NOT THERE FIRE.
and guess what they are staying out of it. No more investigation of their employees. Ground pounders will search the report find there Safety training info and move on.
Overhead, Safety and Equipment will be internal info at Staff levels we will never hear about.
Federal Government—-
It wasn’t their Crew, their Fire or their accident.
They invented the new investigation cover up and it is what it is.
REST IN PEACE GMHS
>> Ground pounders will search the report
>> find there Safety training info and move on.
I wish there had even been enough
information in the high-dollar SAIR report
for them to actually do that. I really do.
As disjointed as even this one particular
public discussion forum has been at
times… we are closer to having the
information they need to do that HERE
than anything done by the very people that
hire them and are SUPPOSED to be
interested in their welfare.
The Information is sill there as all of us fire fighters have said. Between the lines are the violations of the 10 Standard Orders and the 18 situations that shout watch out.
The SAIR just did not openly state them as causes. Allowing Fire Fighters to sift them out of all the worthless chatter in the SAIT. They are there we have stated them over and over. The rest is all the causative actions that pushed the accident to its final conclusion. There is enough blame to go around outside the Crew. This Fire should be identified from start to finish as what you do not do if you want a successful suppression effort…..
WTKTT –
I too want to know exactly what happened that day. Why else do you think I am still here? I am afraid there are a lot of people in positions of influence that want to keep everything as ambiguous and muddled as possible.
mike… I did read and appreciate your
ENTIRE post. You are a wise man… and
I KNOW you are here (posting) for the same
reasons most of us are… but I also DID
have to take issue with your statement
regarding the SAIR.
It WAS supposed to find out what happened.
It WAS supposed to publish FACTUAL results.
It WAS supposed to tell the WFF community how to avoid making the same mistakes.
That IS what those people were (highly)
paid to do with taxpayer dollars.
It did NONE of those things… and ( to me )
that’s just as much a ‘part of the story’
of this horrible incident now as everything
else is.
By the way… I agree with you once
again on your post just above… but
ALL of those ‘people’ you mention?…
…they are ALL ‘public servants’.
I wonder which word in their title they
don’t seem to understand? The ‘public’
part… or the ‘servant’ part? Or BOTH?
Everyone keeps acting like the Forestry
Service is Exxon Mobile, or something,
just trying to protect their internal trade
secrets and their own existence.
It’s NOT ( a private company ).
These people ALL work for you and me.
It’s time someone reminded them of that.
You are dreaming now………..
I feel there are probably more than “public servants” who are afraid of what the truth might be and are not unhappy with the muddled and ambiguous state of affairs. Read any of the Facebook pages dedicated to the 19. The willingness to know the truth may depend on what the truth is.
I’m absolutely sure there are
a lot of people who really do
just want to believe it was
all simply radio problems that
killed 19 good men.
Nobody did anything wrong.
When do we get MORE
money so we can fix the
radios and stuff? End story.
I’m also absolutely sure there
are a lot of other people who
still want to know the REAL
reasons why 19 good men
died that day.
Mr. Mark Twain again…
“A good lie will have traveled half way around the world while the truth is putting on her boots.”
Marti First I want to thank you and others for all they have done here.
The only way to change the current system is to get Regional Foresters and Fire Control to sit down and force change. That’s how its happened in the past.
Can it happen in this day and age? Only if we still have Fire savvy staff people willing to address Fire Safety and research and go the extra mile. The pressure will have to come from the ground up and the media or it won’t happen.
The USFS and BLM are the ones that will enact change. They need to appoint a research group on Wild land Fire, safety and suppression. With out that leadership nothing will happen. Every Forest and BLM Fire Organization needs to push the need up to the national office or it wont happen.
I am most seriously wondering, at this point, what do we do with this?
To be honest, I can no longer afford to essentially spend $2k a month (the loss of my income as a photographer, which has been the case since the beginning of December) to do this. I REALLY have to get back to my work and my life.
And yet, I really believe we have uncovered the evidence to show that there has never been anything approaching a true investigation of this disaster, which not only cost the lives of 19 people, but almost the lives of a number of others. AND without which, there are NO lessons to be learned from it for WFFs other than from speculation based, not on facts, but on the speculations of the SAIT and the ADOSH. Which just isn’t good enough.
There are a number of people I would like to inform of our work and what we have uncovered here. But as I read through just even Chapter 4, the noise to signal ratio is higher than I think they will want to plow through. Which is natural, given what we have been having to do here. But how do we get people who need to know, to know?
I really don’t know what to do at this point. I can’t afford to continue trying to connect dots if doing that has no actual impact on anything.
And WTKTT, thank you for appreciating my work. This last batch was a totally frustrating biyatch without another set of eyes on it to catch my mistakes on it earlier. It cost me a ton of time. Something bigger than just us needs to be doing this.
And I really agree with you that the issue of whether or not Brendan was willing/able to talk during that hour or so at the Ranch House is really critical. I can’t believe he didn’t say anything about what he must have known about where they had decided to go (given the possible–at that time–importance of finding them quickly). But maybe he didn’t. Which raises the question of “If he didn’t, why?”
That’s why those pictures Ball took wandering around Glen Illah have always haunted me so much, regardless of whatever vehicle he was using to take them (and I’m frankly 50/50 on whether by Quad he meant a map–all things considered–or a UTV–all things considered).
I really believe, given how many photos he took of what I think may have been what he was trying to discern might have been possible ways out towards the Boulder Springs Ranch (but I haven’t confirmed since the Googlle Earth street views are not available in those locations) that seem to have been blocked by gates, are a visual narrative of his trying to find a way to Boulder Springs Ranch. I have no idea what was going on inside his head, but for some reason it seems he thought that was somehow the route to somewhere important in some way. Why did he think that? I don’t know.
What happened to the dozer? I don’t know. What does it mean that it was staged? I don’t know. But it was somehow the reason Ball spent a friggin hour hoofing it down on foot to the Yarnell Fire Department to get a Quad (whether that means a UTV–which doesn’t make sense in that context–or a map, which I don’t know what that means either).
And why in the world was Globe Type 2 Inmate Crew’s Overhead, as you have id’d, at the Shrine Area when they were? WTF??? What in the world was gong on with that????
And yes, what in the world happened Saturday????
But, given all these questions and mysteries, my question is, where do we go from here? And where do i go from here? I seriously can’t afford to keep working on connecting dots that need to be connected by a real investigation. And I’m not going to do that. I’m not going to connect another damn fricken dot. I’m a photographer who needs to get back to being a photographer.
I believe those of us who have contributed mucho mucho time out of out lives need to figure out how to make this relevant in order to make sure all this work isn’t wasted. And I, frankly, don’t know how to do that. But I am not evenly remotely going to connect another damn dot until we find a way to make sure our work isn’t being done in vain.
Namaste to all of your who are still here.
WTKTT,
Regarding the SAIT, I’m sure you noticed the “F” word in one of their statements when they referred to “the factual and management report.” FACTUAL? I don’t think so. As ‘they’ often like to say, “There’s a grain of truth in …”
Does anyone know why the official website for the SWCC Dispatch
Center where all available crew statuses are shown is still showing
‘Granite Mountain’ as on an ‘Out-of-Area Rotation’…
…but their ‘current status’ is also listed as…
RA ( Returned from Assignment ).
Is this some kind of ‘memorial’ for Granite Mountain… or is the SWCC
website just totally screwed up?
Look at the bottom of this page at the SWCC Dispatch center…
http://gacc.nifc.gov/swcc/dispatch_logistics/crews/sit300/sit300.htm
WTKTT,
It could be some kind of memorial to them. Last year they had Rest in Peace.
Call them and ask (505) 842-FIRE (3473)
Memorials are fine.
…but the weirdness that’s on that SWCC Dispatch
Resource page just looks like…. well… a screw up.
I wish the Prescott Fire Department had some
kind of memorial on the actual ‘Station 7’ home page
for Granite Mountain.
They still don’t.
It’s still just the way it was on June 29, 2013.
http://www.cityofprescott.net/services/fire/stations/77.php
Reply to Robert the Second post on February 3, 2014 at 8:04 pm
>> RTS said…
>>
>> WTKTT,
>>
>> Regarding the ” ‘management report’ ” – it’s a Federal concept, so not
>> sure if the State requires it. It depends what AZ State put in their SAIT
>> request and/or Delegation of Authority from AZ State Forestry.
>>
>> And even if ‘they’ did complete one, they usually fall under one or more
>> exemptions, so ‘they’ can keep them within the Agency’s control. So,
>> they would be really difficult to get ahold of, and you’d have to appeal
>> the exemption (s) and go to court to get them released. Even then, the
>> document would most likely be heavily redacted.
RTS… thanks again!
I should have seen the following before I asked the question but I didn’t
realize that the existence of the (supposedly) ‘Federally Required’
detailed management report is now one of the most ‘Frequently Asked
Questions’ up at the Arizona Forestry Commission Website.
NOTE: I can think of any number of OTHER ‘Frequently Asked Questions’
that the Arizona Forestry Commission should be supplying some answers
to up there but I doubt MY questions would ever appear on their website.
Anyway…
From the horse’s mouth ( also answers questions about visiting the site )…
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B36DIycSgbzWbWxFeEJyUEJxY1E/edit?pli=1
Arizona State Forestry Commission
Yarnell Hill Fire Report Website
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS…
** Is there another report with confidential information for internal agency
** use only that you are not releasing?
There is only one Serious Accident Investigation Report.
It is available in its entirety at
h t t p s : / / s i t e s . g o o g l e . c o m / s i t e / y a r n e l l r e p o r t /
** What is in the Serious Accident Investigation Report?
The factual and management report has two parts, plus appendices.
Part One includes the fact-based Narrative, the Analysis, Conclusions, and
Recommendations. The primary purpose of the Analysis is to provide context
for key action points associated with the entrapment and fire shelter
deployment. This supports the Conclusions section, which represents
the Team’s impressions and conclusions about these events.
Recommendations presented to management are opportunities for
improving safety.
Part Two, the Learning Discussion section, explores multiple concepts and
perspectives that may help readers to understand and learn from this accident.
The intent is to prompt the wildland fire organization to think about and
discuss how they can improve at the individual, team, and organizational levels,
thereby improving both safety and resilience in their organizations.
** What were the guidelines for this Serious Accident Investigation Team?
The Delegation of Authority for the Serious Accident Investigation Team is
available on p.112 of the (SAIR) report.
The Arizona State Forestry Department is not required to follow federal
interagency guidelines for accident investigations. However they referred to
the Interagency Serious Accident Investigation Guide, as well as other sources,
in the in the development of the report.
** Can the public visit the deployment site?
The deployment site is on Arizona State Land Department property and is
closed to the public.
** Can the public view the deployment site?
A Granite Mountain Hotshots Memorial Overlook with a set of memorial boards
dedicated to the 19 fallen Granite Mountain Hotshots has been established
adjacent to Hwy 89 in Yarnell, Arizona. From the Yarnell overlook, a flagpole
raised at the incident location is visible in the distance.
Reply to calvin post on February 4, 2014 at 3:42 am
>> calvin said…
>>
>> Dispatch records P14….06/30/2013 15:13:39 E46 FILLED WITH
>> TRACTOR TRANSPORTATION WITH LIC# 1TA-423
>> FOR DOZER TRANSPORT AND EMAILED RESOURCE ORDER
>>
>> It seems that the dozer transport was ordered at 1513.
>>
>> Also noted is no order to move dozer back to south side of fire to
>> push road in for body retrieval. (that I can find)
Good catch, calvin.
That does, then, match the time of ‘about 1500’ placed on when the
dozer was pulled away from Blue Ridge before they had even
finished what they were working on all day.
That must have really screwed up the whole plan for the south side
of the fire at that point. It was all based on finishing that ‘line’ and
(possibly) firing it out.
I wonder if that also now explains the late-day assignment of Esquibel
and his crew over to the Shrine area to build that ‘saw line’ to connect the
final part of the dozer line to the Shrine road near the Youth Camp?
Also… here’s the original order for the dozer placed at 3:04 AM Sunday…
Order placed: June 30, 2013, 03:04 AM
Arrived: June 30, 2013, 08:00 AM
TRACTOR – AZA1S – May Machinery – 94291
( 2001 FREIGHTLINER LIC# 1TA-423 – DOZER TRANSPORT) (AZ-ADC)
Actually… looks like TWO Dozers were ordered the night before
( actually very early morning Sunday )… but only one showed up
after daylight on Sunday. I wonder what happened to the other one?
Anyway… here is the website for the company they rented the dozer
and trailer from…
May Machinery, Inc.
Address: 31005 W Southern Ave, Buckeye, AZ 85326
Phone:(623) 386-3023
http://www.maymachinery.com/
Click on ‘Rentals’ and I think both dozer and trailer and pictured there.
At 1032 of Globe type 2 memorial video there are two tractor/trailors suitable for hauling a dozer. They do not appear to be the same from May Machinery (both tractors in video are yellow and one shown at May Machinery is white.)
Also Gary Cordis says the dozer was staged on the road at 4pm. Which road?
Reply to calvin post on February 4, 2014 at 5:15 am
>> calvin said…
>>
>> At 1032 of Globe type 2 memorial video there are two
>> tractor/trailors suitable for hauling a dozer. They do not
>> appear to be the same from May Machinery (both
>> tractors in video are yellow and one shown at May
>> Machinery is white.)
Copy that. I believe that photo at 10:32 in the video was
taken after June 30. Looks like the following day ( July 1 )
Landscape in background is already totally burned.
That’s certainly what the dozer trailer on June 30 must
have looked like, though. Big and yellow.
>> Also Gary Cordis says the dozer was staged on the
>> road at 4pm. Which road?
Well.. I would imagine that would have to be a ‘main’
road like either Highway 89 or Hays Ranch Road.
Still to be determined.
It’s amazing with ALL the photos and videos available
from that day… something as big as a dozer trailer
would be so hard to find.
Reply to Robert the Second post on February 3, 2014 at 11:57 am
>> RTS wrote…
>>
>> WTKTT,
>>
>> Regarding the Willis interview and that he “Heard rumor that the crew
>> fired about on mile of line??”
>> That’s all it was, a rumor. And that’s ALL it was as far as I’m concerned.
Yes. That’s even the ONLY mention of the ‘rumor’ itself… but it is mentioned.
>> RTS also wrote…
>> To fire off a mile of line for a Type II Crew like the Lewis Crew would have
>> been a big endeavor requiring OPS and/or IC knowledge and approval.
One would think so. That’s a lot of line. Even for 13 guys.
Besides… there is the well-documented moment on Saturday afternoon
when the Lewis DOC crew supposedly totally ran out of chain saw gas,
and no one could coordinate getting any more out there to them.
So if they were going to burn off a MILE of line following running out
of chain-saw gas… how did they do it? Just the little hand-torches
alone that had some ‘regular’ gas in them ( and not the oil mix
needed for chainsaws? ).
Can you really even burn a ‘mile’ of line with one or two of those
things… even if you wanted to?
Even if the rumor is true.. the big mystery would remain as to HOW
they even did that much ‘burnoff’ that afternoon. With WHAT?
>> RTS also wrote…
>> Besides that, it would have required at least some engines
>> and possibly air support.
I’m still not saying it happened… but maybe it was just some huge
‘practice exercise’ that just went totally sidewise on them.
There was some kind of ‘trainee’ involved that day and running the
crew… if I understand the Saturday documentation correctly.
>> RTS also wrote…
>> Just firing off the unburned fuel between the jeep trail and the fire
>> perimeter, sure. It’s part of line construction and a Crew Leader has
>> the authority and responsibility to accomplish that task. HOWEVER,
>> the OPS and/or IC would havem should have been informed.
Again… not saying it happened… but maybe when they ran out of the
oil-gas chainsaw mix and all they had left were some regular-gas
hand torches, or something, maybe they decided they would just
do some of that ‘unburned fuel’ elimination you just mentioned and
‘call it a day’…
…but that’s when it all went sideways on them.
>> RTS also wrote…
>> Therefore, I’m taking it as just a rumor, nothing else.
Until there’s more evidence / documentation on EXACTLY what that
crew was doing up there Saturday afternoon… then that is all it is. A rumor.
WTKTT,
AND it would have taken additional Crews to hold line. A HS Crew not so much so, but a Type II Crew firing and holding their own line under those conditions, no way. AND the fire behavior indicated on photos and videos indicated black smoke at 0900 and 60′ to 100′ flame lengths at 1000 to 1030. This was indicative of rock-and-roll fire behavior for the day for those that were paid attention. Fire Order Number 3 – Base all actions on CURRENT an EXPECTED fire behavior.
I’m gonna say that the Lewis Crew abided by that and didn’t burn a mile of line and then lose it as the rumor mill goes.
It’s fully documented that poor Shumate ( I really have
developed some sympathy for this poor guy ) was TOLD
that the fire was “contained on ALL FOUR SIDES” at
some point in the afternoon… and that’s when he started
letting resources leave the area…
…but official reports still don’t seem to say exactly
WHO told him that.
Was it really this ‘trainee’ who was supposedly
running the Lewis crew that day because no one
thought the fire was that big of deal?… or the regular
Lewis crew boss ( whoever that really was ).
How DO you get from ‘Fully contained on all four sides’
to ‘Jumping the jeep trail with 40 foot flame lengths’
in a fairly short amount of time with not very much wind.
It’s a mystery that still begs some answers.
RTS as you know I’ve heard you all along. Also I think what you just said is fact No one but Granit Mountain really knew where they were that day. GM also includes McDonough.
I will say one thing about previous investigations up till recently they at least identified the violation of the 10 standard orders. Until this latest change in non accusation reports has become the new direction. In most cases they never single any one person out for blame. As you said never have never will.
If the organization never learns then the Fire Fighter will never learn.
The basics have and will always be there. Teach them, use them and believe in them. Some of the 10 and 18 can be found in every fatality fire no matter what the investigation says. Fire suppression 101…………………
Bob,
As I posted earlier, this investigation was heavily infuenced by the Facilitated Learning Analysis (FLA) which belives that no body is at fault, it’s the Agency, the Culture, the Organization. It’s pure Bovine Feculence.
To not base a fatality investigation on the 10 and 18 as OBJECTIVE criteria borders on negligence.
Right on….. How dose it get changed?
This is not my Forest Service
I guess it already wasn’t when I retired.
At 33 years of dedication, the last 5 I had enough.
I guess we are to expect 30 Fire Fatalities a year in Wild land Fire Fighting Because no one will identify LESSONS LEARNED………………….. Lack of initial attack. No fire line work at night, Let it burn till it starts threating homes and its to late to save them too.
WTKTT,
“DID THE GROUND RESCUE TEAM KNOW ABOUT THE RANCH?”
“Was anyone at the Ranch House Restaurant (where this rescue team was formed) really aware that they should be looking for Granite Mountain somewhere ‘out there’ near the Boulder Springs Ranch?”
NO, probably not because almost everyone KNEW or THOUGHT they were SAFE IN THE BLACK IN A GOOD SZ. Everyone that heard GMHS on the radio figured that,even the guys during the ‘helmet cam’ video clip. Frisby said, in his mind they went toward the black (who would go into the unburned green?) So, why would they go looking in the green or toward The Ranch?
From BRHS interview – “Also going to make our way through out escape route. Brian asks are you in good black? Eric says “picking our way through the black to the rd in the bottom out towards the ranch” Brian thinks he meant towards the 2 track. To confirm Brian says, “the rd we came on w/ the ranger…affirm.”
Brian thought GM would come down the same rd him and Trew went on.”
“Started gathering a task force of medical people, paramedics, drivers, medical equipment, but there was no real access.” Because they didn’t really know where they were.
And remember Marsh’s MANY DISINGENUOUS, COY, LESS-THAN-FORTHRIGHT answers regarding WHERE he was, WHERE the GMHS was, WHAT they were doing, WHAT his/their intention(s) were etc. That certainly did NOT help the situation.
RTS… Everything you say is TRUE. That IS what everyone
thought ( even the Helmet-Cam guys ) PRIOR to ( and during? )
the MAYDAY messages…
…but what I was saying above is that it didn’t matter what
anyone THOUGHT prior to hearing Marsh saying they
were ‘deploying’ and ‘getting into the shelters’.
At that point… all bets ( and prior assumptions ) were off.
The most IMPORTANT thing to determine, at that moment,
was WHERE WERE THEY… REALLY… and to figure
that out FAST.
So I don’t think you ‘imagined’ the scenario I was describing
just above as part of the ‘question’.
Again… imagine this…
EVERYONE was standing in the Ranch House Restaurant
parking lot. Frisby, Brown, Cordes, McDonough, (Abel?), and
in a few moments even Willis was there at the cafe’.
They immediately started organizing a ‘ground rescue team’
and THREE UTV’s to go do the searching.
Frisby even immediately got with Brendan and worked with
him to obtain the ‘crew manifests’ so they would know
exactly how many people they were looking for.
So there is Frisby… getting the manifests from Brendan
McDonough… who was about to become the only surviving
member of this entire Hotshot team…
…and are we saying there wasn’t even one conversation
with Brendan about where they might ACTUALLY be… or
what Brendan might have KNOWN about their actual
movements and location now that it is CRITICAL to
know for SURE where they might be?
As I said above… I just cannot imagine that didn’t happen.
Even if no one ASKED Brendan exactly where they were…
don’t you think YOU ( or anyone ) would VOLUNTEER
any information you had at that moment on their exact
whereabouts so any ‘rescue effort’ could maximize
their search efforts?
Brendan ( and Willis ) heard ALL of those ‘discussing their
options’ conversations… and by the time the rescue team
was organized BOTH of them were standing right there
in the Ranch House Restaurant parking lot with everyone else.
All I am saying is if none of that actually happened ( no
conversation amongst all those people who were standing
in that parking lot to VERIFY where they REALLY were
when Marsh said ‘our escape route has been cut off’ )…
…then that is just really, truly beyond belief.
WTKTT,
I have to agree with you because what else can you say? Brendan almost surely knew what was going on. I still say Willis not so much so.
Copy that. The jury is still out on Willis. He has
admitted in public interviews that he was ‘listening’ to
the GM private crew frequency at the critical
‘discussing their options’ times… but that certainly
isn’t documented in both official SAIT and ADOSH
reports like we know Brendan was ( listening ).
My ‘imagine this’ scenario above was just based
on realizing that this ‘ground rescue effort’ is
still one the most poorly documented aspects
of this entire incident.
Marti made that obvious above with the amazing
work just trying to match all the photos with
the lightly documented events…
…and that made me realize that while we can
see photos showing some of what happened…
and BR GPS tracking data SHOWING them
apparently trying to ‘break through’ in the Glen
Ilah Area… and then all the tracking out west
to search for them…
…we still don’t really know exactly what went
down in that Ranch House Restaurant parking
lot when everyone who was anyone that day
were all standing around face-to-face… no
radios needed… and the most important thing
in the world at that moment was figuring out
EXACTLY where these men might REALLY be.
What was the real conversation?
Who knew what when?
Who told who what?
Who did NOT say what the knew ( if anyone )?
Did the rescue team really know EXACTLY
where they ought to be looking for GM but
were somehow unable to communicate
that to the already-airborne Ranger 58?
There’s a complete story there (post-deployment)
that just hasn’t even begun to be fully told yet.
Stay tuned.
WTKTT,
Regarding the ” ‘management report’ ” – it’s a Federal concept, so not sure if the State requires it. It depends what AZ State put in their SAIT request and/or Delegation of Authority from AZ State Forestry.
And even if ‘they’ did complete one, they usually fall under one or more exemptions, so ‘they’ can keep them within the Agency’s control. So, they would be really difficult to get ahold of, and you’d have to appeal the exemption (s) and go to court to get them released. Even then, the document would most likely be heavily redacted.
**
** DID THE GROUND RESCUE TEAM KNOW ABOUT THE RANCH?
Marti’s diligent study of the Blue Ridge photos and notes documented above
actually has raised an important question/issue that I don’t think has been
discussed before.
There is no doubt that one of the first things that happened almost immediately
after the ‘new’ of the deployment got out circa 1642… that everyone started
‘jumping into action’ and trying to do whatever they could to help.
That ‘rescue team’ of THREE UTVs that would eventually ‘break through’
out west towards the ridge via the Shrine area had begun to be organized
almost immediately after the ominous radio transmissions from GM.
The Blue Ridge GPS tracking video and their own notes document their
efforts to ‘find a way west’ in the Glen Ilah area just shortly after the
deployment and even at some risk to their own lives at that point.
But here’s the big question…
Was anyone at the Ranch House Restaurant ( where this rescue team
was formed ) really aware that they should be looking for Granite Mountain
somewhere ‘out there’ near the Boulder Springs Ranch?
There is no actual documentation to support this one way or the other…
but think about this for a second.
Brendan McDonough was right there at the cafe’ in this timeframe.
He is documented in every official report as definitely having HEARD
the ENTIRE ‘discussion their options’ conversation(s) ( multiple ).
Multiple people who were there have also reported hearing the same
reference to a ‘ranch’ that even the Ranger 58 DPS medic Eric Tarr
would eventually recall hearing while he was in the air searching.
Those ‘multiple people’ who reported hearing the same thing were
ALSO ‘right there’ at the cafe’ in the moments following deployment.
Eric Cordes himself was right there at the cafe’ at this same time and
HE is the one who ( according to all documentation ) supposedly told
Marsh, Steed AND the entire GM Crew about the ‘bomb-proof ranch’
MULTIPLE times that morning as he launched each of these resources
out to the western ridge to start their work day.
So with ALL of these people standing right there at the cafe’ in the moments
following the ‘news’ of the deployment… is it even conceivable that the
rescue team was NOT informed that the ‘Boulder Springs Ranch’ must
have been where they were headed when Marsh calmly announced
“…our escape route has been cut off” ?
Just take Brendan McDonough alone, for example.
Is it even conceivable that once everyone knew what was happening…
that Brendan did NOT tell Frisby or Cordes or any other management
person there in the parking lot what he DID know?
My answer would be… “No… it’s not possible he could have withheld
ANY information he had at that critical moment.”
So if the ‘rescue team’ really was fully informed ( By Brendan or Cordes
or anyone else who KNEW that’s where GM had been going ) that
they probable search area was somewhere west of the Boulder
Springs Ranch…
…then WHY… almost an HOUR later… did Ranger 58 medic Eric Tarr
still have to ‘accidentally’ recall that he had ‘accidentally’ overheard
something about a ‘ranch’… and that ended up being the only way
that Ranger 58 actually ‘accidentally’ found them?
Thoughts?
Typo above. It’s not ‘Eric Cordes’.
I meant to type… ‘Even Cordes…’
Bob and WTKTT,
Reposting here. ” think the ongoing ‘conversation’ at this
point should be just as much about how to prevent such a botched-up, obfuscated
INVESTIGATION like this from ever happening again just as much as it
needs to still be about what REALLY happened in Yarnell on June 30, 2013.
Reply ↓
Robert the Second
on February 2, 2014 at 10:28 pm said:
Bob,
“Third the SAIT again used there own scenario because BR did not fit. BR’s statements were not used but changed to fit.
This has to be the worst investigation in the history of WLF fatalities.”
I’ll say it once again. Contrary to the ‘traditional investigative process’ the SAIT will establish it’s own conclusion, then it will selectively find ‘facts’ to support their pre-established conclusion. They do this by means of selective interviews and ‘cherry picking’ evidence that fits; everything else is discounted. It has happened with every fatality SAIT since the Mann Gulch Fire.”
One of the only ways to get honest, objective investigations is to take them out of the hands of BUREAUCRATS. It’s the classic ‘fox checking on the chickens’ thing.
RTS… I hear ya ( loud and clear ).
I didn’t want you to think this message you’ve been trying to
get across from day one is just ‘lost in the noise’. It’s not.
Every time you say it… it’s just as true.
Question: Have you heard… or do you know… if this
mysterious ‘management report’ was also produced by
the SAIT? The one that is supposed to remain ‘internal
only’ and (supposedly) has the actual FACTUAL results
of the investigation… and not this ‘learning exercise’
thing that was released publicly?
WTKTT,
Regarding the Willis interview and that he “Heard rumor that the crew fired about on mile of line??”
That’s all it was, a rumor. And that’s ALL it was as far as I’m concerned. And not a big deal as far as I’m concerned as well.
To fire off a mile of line for a Type II Crew like the Lewis Crew would have been a big endeavor requiring OPS and/or IC knowledge and approval. Besides that, it would have required at least some engines and posssibly air support.
Just firing off the unburned fuel bewtween the jeep trail and the fire perimeter, sure. It’s part of line construction and a Crew Leader has the authority and responsibility to accomplish that task. HOWEVER, the OPS and/or IC would havem should have been informed.
Therefore, I’m taking it as just a rumor, nothing else.
we can confirm the crew on Saturday 6-29-13 near the helispot area did cuttings- by our accounts and photos show that but we do not know any of their accounts of burning up there except many in Congress, Arizona saw it at one point almost burnt out than it was back to high flames with at that point no weather to contribute it and if they read your scenarios here then I am sure you would have a lot of Congress locals stating maybe there was a man factor in the fire growing again on Saturday. Makes sense. We saw 4 tiny bushes on fire 6-30-13 a.m. to have the yellow and white helicopter hover/observe/pick up or drop items which in turn flamed up very high those 4 tiny bushes so anything is open for discussion there. Has anyone ever seen the air log yet for that helicopter? or the Ranger 58? We know DPS pilot was Eric Tarr and the ranger 58 was Clifford Brunstig yet due to privacy laws have not been answered some questions we mailed to those 2 areas. We would like to know more than they had a mission at the Yarnell Hill Fire. Some people have asked us to hike that area again with them and we have given all the coordinates and showed you all the legal ways yet we are not doing hikes currently but for a select few for 2014 in hopes to give the Helm’s place some r&r from everyone visiting the area and we did a lot in 2013. It is time for all of us to give them a bit of privacy seeing that some good solid people did get to hike it and even they are bewildered to that weekend like us. If someone can come to us explaining how us hiking them will bring forth a deeper clarity to that weekend than sure we can arrange something.
Sonny and Joy,
You’ve made several comments about ‘closures’ and ‘legal ways’ to hike the YHF area. Would you please go into some more detail on all that?
I heard the State has a closure on the YHF, is that correct? And I know it’s a lot of AZ State Trust Land, and you need a permit just for that, right? So, if I was to make a trip to AZ to hike the YHF area, what do I need to do?
Thanks.
we would be your tour guide.
To answer your questions. Yes, I have posted online numerous times the coordinates and areas restricted. Right now, you would have to go to private links of mine or scroll these comment walls for the coordinates–none on hand to offer. As far as restrictions go, there has been a set state land restriction (possibly later to be hallowed ground) (320 acres of state land) and that map was emailed to us Fri, Jul 19, 2013 at 7:03 PM by Jim Paxon the restricted map and we would forward that email to anyone interested in having a copy of that map or just look on my private link photos for the map as well. Soon I will post a public link after the 17th when I can upload again; out of bandwidth usage to do any online projects/photo pages.
reply in CAPS below—>>>
You’ve made several comments about ‘closures’ and ‘legal ways’ to hike the YHF area. Would you please go into some more detail on all that? I WILL TRY MY BEST. IF YOU GO TO YAVAPAI COUNTY ASSESSOR AND IN SEARCH BUTTON OF THE GIS MAPPING TYPE WHITEHEAD OR BALUCO AND WHEN YOU ARE THERE IT SHOULD HAVE PLACED YOU ON THE AREA OF SESAME STREET—I COULD SAY EVEN SEARCH HELMS YET GIVEN THEM A BREAK IN 2014. SO NOW TAKE THE LAYER EFFECTS AND BUILD THE MAP YOU WANT BY OVERLAYING IT WITH STATE AND BLM AND PRIVATE THEN PRINT IT OUT AS YOUR MAP PLUS PRINT THE RESTIRCTED MAP AND COME TO ARIZONA AND HAVE A WONDERFUL SLEUTH OF A TIME TRAILING THE WEAVER MOUNTAINS. YOU ARE ABLE TO GO ON STATE LAND YET NOT 320 ACRES THAT SURROUND THE DEPLOYMENT AREA. YOU ARE NOT ALLOWED LEGALLY ON THAT AREA EVEN THOUGH YOU HEAR SO MANY HAVE AND DO—THE LOVED ONES OF THE FALLEN AND CERTAIN ONES IN THE FIREFIGHTER COMMUNITY HAVE BEEN ALLOWED YET IT WAS TOLD TO ME ALL OF THEM WERE TO ALWAYS BE WITH AN OFFICIAL OTHERWISE THEY WERE NOT ALLOWED YET AGAIN I HIKE IT AND I HAVE SEEN ALOT OF FOLKS GO WITHOUT AN OFFICIAL INTO THE AREAS THEY RESTRICTED—MOST LIKELY BECAUSE ONLY THE DEPLOYMENT AREA IS FENCED OFF AND THERE IS NO VISIBLE LEGAL SIGNS STATING “STATE LAND RESTRICTED” AND YCSO DEPUTY LEVIN STATED ABOUT HOMEOWNER’S PLACES THAT YOU MUST HAVE VISIBLE SIGNS EVER SO MANY FEET STATING “NO TRESPASSING” OTHERWISE THERE IS NOT MUCH THE YCSO CAN DO YET I AM SURE ON THE STATE LAND RESTRICTED AREA THAT IS ANOTHER BALL PARK THEORY AS MAYBE THE YCSO DOES NOT GET INVOLVED YET STATE LAND DOES. THERE IS NO SIGNS ANYWHERE STATING YOU ARE NOT ALLOWED PASS A CERTAIN POINT. THERE IS ALOT OF RESTRICTED PRIVATE LAND OUT THERE; DON GLASGLOW OF MAUGHAN RANCH IS ONE FOR SURE, BALUCO, WHITEHEAD SO THAT MEANS TECHNICALLY NOONE IS ALLOWED TO WALK THE DESERT LAND OFF SESAME STREET AND THE SHRINE AREA SO THAT TAKES ONE TO EITHER THE CONGRESS SIDE LIKE WE HIKE ALOT OR NEAR THE YARNELL LIBRARIAN’S PATTI OFF NEAR CANDIE CANE LANE WHICH YOU MUST ASK HER WHERE TO PARK FOR THERE IS A DESIGNATED 1-2 SAFE PARKING AREA. IF YOU DO NOT KNOW THE AREA IT IS STRONGLY RECOMMENDED TO HAVE A HIKING HOST SO YOU DO NOT END UP IN JAIL OR WITH SOME HEFTY FINES. WE HAVE DONE IT SO FAR TO HELP GET CLARITY TO YARNELL HILL FIRE WEEKEND AND STILL WILL TO A SELECT FEW THIS 2014 BECAUSE YOU DO NOT WANT TO BE ON THE WRONG PROPERTY BECAUSE YOU HAVE TO KNOW YOUR LAND THERE—FOR EXAMPLE THE CATTLE POND NEAR THE HELMS—TUCK YOURSELF FAR AWAY FROM THAT SPOT BECAUSE PART OF THE ACRES OF HELMS IS WIDE ENOUGH IT DOES GO OVER THAT WAY— DO PLEASE KNOW YOUR TERRAIN. THERE ARE SHORTCUTS AND LONGER STEEPER WAYS—ALSO MAKE SURE YOU HAVE WENT AND PURCHASED YOUR STATE LAND PERMIT. STATE LAND MUST LOVE ME THIS PAST YEAR WITH ALL THE PERMITS THEY GOT FROM ME SHARING THE NEWS BECAUSE MANY NEVER EVEN KNEW THEY HAD TO EVEN HAVE ONE. I DO WANT TO EDUCATE YOU ALL THAT STATE LAND ALLOWS AN ARIZONA HUNTING LICENSE YET IF THAT IS YOUR PURPOSE FOR BEING IN THE AREA; RABBITS AND SUCH. SO IF YOU HAVE ONE OF THOSE AND YOU ARE WANTING TO DO THE TRAILS, DO KNOW YOUR PRIVATE LAND AREAS AND WATERING HOLE AREAS TO AVOID SHOOTING—I MEAN WALKING IN THOSE AREAS WITH YOUR LEGAL HUNTING PERMIT. I MAKE PEOPLE AWARE OF THE RESTRICTIONS AS LA RETIRED FIREFIGHTER EDUCATED US THAT ONE HIKE IN JULY 2013. IT IS A MANDATORY THING TO BE LEGAL AND AS WELL AS RESPECT OTHERS PRIVATE AREAS ESPECIALLY THE HELMS. MAYBE SOME DAY THEY WILL SURFACE AND SHARE MORE TO THAT WEEKEND BUT HEY MAYBE THE HELMS HAVE OTHER PLANS YET IF THEY EVER PUT A BOOK OUT INDEED I WOULD BUY IT. I HAVE TRAVELLED NEAR THEIR LAND FOR ALMOST A DECADE AND I HAVE ALWAYS ENJOYED WATCHING THEIR PLACE AND MAUGHAN RANCH AREA AS I SCALED THE BOULDERS AND RODE THE RIDGE ON THE WEAVER MOUNTAIN TOPS- THEY WOULD HAVE ME AS THEIR FIRST BUYER OF A BOOK IF THEY DID ONE ON YARNELL HILL FIRE.
I heard the State has a closure on the YHF, is that correct? YES.
And I know it’s a lot of AZ State Trust Land, 320 ACRES SURROUNDING THE DEPLOYMENT AREA AND STILL ACTIVELY RESTRICTED-
and you need a permit just for that, right? YES. STATE LAND PERMIT-
http://www.azland.gov/programs/natural/RecreationPermit.pdf
So, if I was to make a trip to AZ to hike the YHF area, what do I need to do?
DEPENDS ON WHAT TIME OF YEAR FOR FOOD AND WATER BUT YOU WOULD NEED THOSE COORDINATES IF YOU WANT TO GO DIRECTLY TO THOSE AREAS YET ALSO THE MAPS I SPOKE OF PRINTING ABOVE ON HAND AND YOUR STATE LAND PERMIT AND MAYBE A WALKING STICK FOR SOME AREAS ARE STEEP TERRAIN BUT NOT NEEDED. I THINK AFTERWARDS CALLING MY MEDICAL MASSAGER TO SEE IF SHE IS IN THE PRESCOTT AREA BECAUSE IF YOU HAVE NOT HIKED IT MUCH BEFORE YOU MAY WANT TO REACH DEE SICKLES 928-814-9348. SHE IS BASED IN FLAGSTAFF YET TRAVELS TOO. CONGRESS SIDE HIKE IS STEEPER YET IS ONLY 1.8 MILES TO SEE DEPLOYMENT SIDE AND THOSE COORDINATES ARE SOMEWHERE ON THIS PAGE; SCROLL UP. THAT IS STEEP BUT WE DO IT; A HEAVY HOUSEWIFE AND OLD MINER SO WE THINK ANYONE CAN EVEN YOU CHARLES MOSELELY—WE HAVE ALOT OF FAITH IN ONE PUTTING ONE FOOT IN FRONT OF THE OTHER NO MATTER HOW ILL YET SOME PHARMECUTICALS AND HEALTH CONDITIONS MAY IMPAIR THAT STEEP ROUTE—OTHERWISE YOU CAN GO THE CANDIE CANE LANE WAY YET IT IS HARD TO DESCRIBE YET IT WOULD BE LIKE GOING OUT TO ACRI’S LAND ON THE GIS MAPPING BUT YOU DON’T—YOU TURN OFF GOING TOWARDS MCNARY’S/HELMS YET IN THE DESERT WITH IN/OUT OF THE OLD CLOUDCROFT SUBDIVISION WITH PRIVATE LAND OWNERS AND STATE LAND COMBINED. THE ASSESSOR IS A GREAT PLACE TO LEARN YOUR LAND AND AS WELL HAVE IT SET ON IMAGERY SO YOU CAN SEE WHERE YOU ARE WALKING-
Happy Sleuthing to you all—Happy Trails!
Joy and Sonny,
Thank you so much for all the very good information on access. The times I went before were ‘official’ so not a big deal. It sounds like it’s gotten to be more of a big deal though. A bit of a hassle, but not impossible. It will probably be in the next few months before it gets hot, otherwise it’s too much like work.
Thanks again.
**
** SPREADSHEET FROM FOIA/FOIL PACKAGE WITH
** DESCRIPTIONS OF BLUE RIDGE PHOTOS / VIDEOS
Marti…
I don’t know if you have seen this… but there is a SPREADSHEET
in the online Dropbox for the Blue Ridge Hotshots Photos and Videos that
was apparently prepared by BR itself and it has its OWN descriptions
for all of the photos and videos submitted to the SAIT.
Some of the ‘descriptions’ of the photos/videos seem to have been supplied
by the exact person(s) who took the pictures. Other descriptions seem
to more ‘3rd party’ and speaking on someone else’s behalf.
Either way… I think some of these BR descriptions of their own material
actually might answer some of the issues you seem to be struggling with.
Some of the ‘notes’ made by BR Crew are pretty cryptic and hard to
understand ( what else is new )… but some of the notes are pretty clear.
That Excel Spreadsheet is here…
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/dpmmrutwwk4a45b/ubaT3WIfl8/_README.xlsx
…but just in case you ( or anyone else ) don’t have Microsoft Excel software,
here is the same spreadsheet converted to just plain TEXT…
Blue Ridge Hotshot Photos / Videos
_README.XLSX SPREADSHEET
** SPREADSHEET STARTS
** Yarnell – Mccord
yarnell ggamble (MOVIE) – siren in background:
this is siren when you first showed up when they
went back in to push people out of youth camp
Yarnell088 – close call with helicopter and airplane helicopter looks like he was right underneath the plane
Yarnell103 – “crew driving out toward ranch house, this is close to when the wind went ne”
Yarnell081 – “when br first showed up and stopped at gm crew trucks, before they went up at all. Can see themost active piece when they pan far right. they had just got there; and it shows the little burnout at the saddle, as well it shows the stuff air attack thought was cold where he had them put whatever on it. the main fire to the right of their burnout. and then in the middle, you can see the little finger they were talking about. that’s probably the finger that chased brandon out?”
Yarnell076 – from the fire station
Yarnell079 – parking area looking to northwest; granite mtn trucks are right next to them
Yarnell083 – “from the parking area, looking toward the nw”
Yarnell084 – “this is from parking area, looking due north”
Yarnell85 – looking north and northwest
Yarnell86 – parking area looking nw
Yarnell91 – on the dozer line
Yarnell92 – “is off the dozer line, this ? this might be what’s running toward gm’s supt and chase truck. There was another piece toward the west pushing toward brendan’s lookout spot”
Yarnell93 – “heading out on shrine road, these are when the trucks are bumping around”
Yarnell94 – “they are on hwy 89, stopped for a second to grab chase truck held up for a moment at junction of 89 this is showing- looking to northeast, and this crew is on the way to ranch house”
Yarnell95 – same
Yarnell96 – “this is in the youth camp, right before they left, this is the clearance light on the buggy on the fir right”
Yarnell98 – “starting to push the taskforce ot, at the youth camp, gettitng dark, a street light came on shortly after”
Yarnell99 – same stuff
Yarnell101 – “looking north, showing whole group of trucks driving through town heading south”
Yarnell105 – “at the ranchouse restaurant looking nroth, within minutes of them deploying. The were there at ranchouse rest not very long before they deployed, and looking north. Hwy 89 is at nose of the buggy”
Yarnell106 – this is looking sw from the ranch house probably around the time they deployed
** Yarnell – Papich
Yarnell-Papich001 – “this is early, maybe driving in on manzanita befoe they hit lakewood, looking off to the northwest”
Yarnell-Papich2 – “****IN THE BACKGROUND IT SHOWS THE SADDLE ON THE L HAND SIDE WHERE THEY ANCHORED looking off to the west; this is probably from the fire station, looking northwest from the firestation. I don?t think that’s the fire department because from the fd, you were looking due west at it. so we dont know where it is. ”
Yarnell-Papich3 – “this is the 2track driving in, early, before they park”
Yarnell-Papich4 – “parking area, looking north, northwest”
Yarnell-Papich5 – “***This is a good photo showing when this area was starting to heat up.** Parking area, just before the whole tanker thing. .”
Yarnell-Papich6 – “parking area, looknig northwest”
Yarnell-Papich7 – “youthcamp, leaving or just getting ready to leave,probably looking west, northwest”
Yarnell-Papich8 – “youthcamp, moving, they’re leaving, looking out window, looking west”
Yarnell-Papich9 – “on shrine road, pretty close to 89 in this photo, looking nw”
Yarnell-Papich10 – ??
** Yarnell – Desoto
Yarenell-Desoto003 “this is the tanker drop where they started the indirect, anchoring in off of the 2 track granite was going to tie into”
Yarenell-Desoto1
Yarenell-Desoto2 at buggy parking spot
? then a bunh of drops as viewed from parking spot
** Yarnell – Wardumups
IMG3953 – “same as desoto 003
IMG3942 – “coming of pavement, the end of lakewood or manzanita”
IMG9343 – driving in
IMG3944 – “just leaving 89, about to make the turn onto lakewood or manzanita, the other one above is probably due north of this”
IMG3945 – “***SO THIS SHOWS THE SADDLE EARLY IN THE DAY*** turning off from 89 into glen isla, which has something to do with lakewood or manzanita”
IMG3946 –
IMG3947 – AT PARKINGarea looking north
IMG3948 – “at parking area, looking nw”
IMG3949 – “parking area, looking north”
IMG3950 – “Parking area, looking north, and this the buildup this is when it’s starting to move off to the northeast wth the strong south, southwest wind. (this is the green flagging fluttering in vid of vlat)”
IMG3951 – same as above
IMG3952 – “same, a little later; travis is talking to cordes and zulu is with him; trying to help zulu with radio”
IMG3954 – “youthcamp,from inside the buggy driving out; shows some of the task force driving out; shows the ranger going back in to help get engines moving out”
IMG3955 – “same as above, shows them talking to a guy ”
IMG3956 – “same, this is part of task force there, taken from the buggy, driving out, thse are the last two trucks to leave, but true and frisby hadn’t tied in with those individuals et when photo taken”
IMG3957 – “driving out, getting close to the ranchouse restaurant; coming around the bend by fountainhill lane; from the ranch, looking toward the saddle. Circled in the whispy smoke, this looks like the rocky ridge where they bailed off. ***note timestamp on photo”
IMG3958 – “same as above, just a little bit later”
** Yarnell – BALL
1873 – Driving to icp or yarnell
1874 – driving to yarnell
1875 – “driving into parking area, stopped”
1876 – same
1877 – same
1877 – “nearly at the parking area, you mght be able to see it through the veg ahead”
1878 – same
1879 –
1880 – tied in with dozer
1881 – “this is the black, this was that push to the east ; marked on map”
1882 – around the dozer line
1883 – “around dozer line, showing crew”
1884 – coming out of staging areak lookig north
1886 – “fire station, looking north”
1887 –
1904 – on 89
1890 – when tanker droppen in town and he called the closest photo he haas to the deployment
*** probably between 1888 & 89 is when deployment happened
** SPREADSHEET ENDS
Yes. I have looked thru that file.
And thanks for all your follow-up. I was hoping for feedback two days ago. Before I went on to piece my scenario together, which is obviously incorrect on many counts. This is really hard to do with only one set of eyes looking at it.
I’d never “gone in” to try to find the gate. I only just discovered how to use Street View on Friday. While looking for what I thought was that little house that Papich photographed. And I found it! It took me hours!!
LOL!!!!!!!!
I think you’re right about the white truck. I was just working off the timeline that got developed about the “dust off” with the GM Buggies and the crew being in the GM Sup truck and Ball being among them.
I’m finding I’m having to re-plot the Trew GPS locations. For some reason, when I first copy/pasted your locations, they didn’t plot accurately. Google Earth can be wickedly incorrect in where it places pins, I’m learning. So scratch all that I ever wrote above about Trew not landing at the GM buggies and also going quite a ways south on Sesame after doing so.
So my next question is:
How does Ball get from about the middle of the crossover near the dozer (photo 1883-3:30:02 pm) to the gate (photo 1884-3:50:35) in twenty minutes. He walks it. 1.5-ish mph. If he continues walking towards 89 at 1.5-ish mph that puts him at the Ranch House Cafe at 4:20:35. And Gary Cordes is there, I’m betting.
If that white pickup pullng into the YFD is Gary Cordes’s low slung fully enclosed white pickup that is shown in Papich’s image 3952 (12:20:49) of, according to the Blue Ridge spreadsheet, “travis is talking to cordes and zulu is with him; trying to help zulu with radio,” that could make sense.
Ball hikes all the way down to the Ranch House Cafe because he needs a friggin quad MAP to direct Justin somehow. He’s on the radio w/Cordes, most likely. He ties in w/Cordes and they drive to the YFD for the map. While there, they hear the Last Minutes convo. They race out to Glen Illah, while listening to the radio, can’t get in cuz of the flames, and head back to the Ranch House to connect with everybody else.
How’s that scenario sound?
Of course, it could be somebody else’s white pickup truck, too.
Who knows??????
And after ALL THIS,
we STILL don’t know what happened to Justin and that dozer.
Just saw this in the ADOSH report.
Apparently, the dozer was ordered
( by OPS2 Paul Musser, according
to BR YIN notes ) to move up north to
the Incident Command Post (ICP) at
the Model Creek School in Peeples Valley
as early as 1500 ( 3:00 PM ) that afternoon.
Ball and Blue Ridge weren’t near
finished with what they were trying to
do by then and I imagine that would have
really put a wrench in the works for them.
From page 18 of the ADOSH report…
At approximately 1500, the dozer was
ordered to the north side of the fire where
the ICP was being threatened by fire.
P23 YIN Cordis…. 1600…. Dozer was sitting on the road staged
That sounds more like the
right timeline. 1500 ( as
reported by ADOSH ) sounds
a little early for Musser to
have requested the dozer.
I still think this whole dozer
thing is very, very important.
If for no other reason… the
BR YIN notes now attribute
the request for the dozer
to move NORTH came
direct from ‘Planning OPS’
Paul Musser, and not
‘Field OPS’ Todd Abel…
…and according to the
same BR YIN notes… that
request for that resource
to move NORTH came
AFTER the wind shift and
right around the same
time ‘Planning OPS’ Musser
was ALSO asking Marsh
if he could ‘spare resources
for Yarnell’ ( on the SOUTH
side of the fire ).
Did ‘Field OPS’ Abel really
know that ‘Planning OPS’
Musser was on the radio
trying to move resources
all over the place, or not?
Dispatch records P14….06/30/2013 15:13:39 E46 FILLED WITH TRACTOR TRANSPORTATION WITH LIC# 1TA-423
FOR DOZER TRANSPORT AND EMAILED RESOURCE ORDER
It seems that the dozer transport was ordered at 1513.
Also noted is no order to move dozer back to south side of fire to push road in for body retrieval. (that I can find)
Joy has photos of when the media was here of the trucks of Willis and others that was at the media time as Joy took them from mountain top on my request so if you are stuck on a photo then next time Joy is in town she can try and get to the library to add that photo so you can match it to any pending Yarnell Hill Fire weekend vehicles that you have questions about. It may help someone questioning certain vehicles orlicense plates.
Reply to Marti Reed post on February 2, 2014 at 7:39 pm
>> Marti wrote…
>> I’m gonna repost what I wrote earlier today, because I think it’s
>> really important and I would REALLY like some feedback on it.
>> Especially now that I spent the afternoon reading both of the totally
>> bungled Yarnell Interview Notes and the Inspection Narrative (and
>> especially since I retired from this outfit yesterday):
Marti… I don’t think I’m still even near ‘up to speed’ with you on the
tracing of all Ball’s movements… but I’ll do the best I can to provide
some possible feedback here.
All I can do, I think, is just take your ‘breakdown’ below point by point
and see if I see anything wrong based on what I know or have had
a chance to absorb myself.
So here goes…
>> Marti Reed on February 2, 2014 at 11:00 am said:
>> You have some confusion in your comments about the second
>> half of the scenario.
I’m sure I do. Those comments were just one possible scenario
for explaining the single line “Trew goes in GM chase truck” that
I only saw yesterday in the YIN interview notes while looking
for something else. Is that line in the notes even true? Dunno.
>> I’ll leave out the Papich photos part, because that’s
>> confusing you, I think.
Probably so. I know most of the Papich photos you are
referring to but I certainly haven’t spent the time with all of
his photos like you have.
>> Here’s Ball’s timeline via his iphone photos:
>> 3:50:35 Shoots a gate in the Sesame area on the west end of the
>> cutover. IMG_1886. (At least someone somewhere wrote that
>> that is what that gate is.)
IMG_1886 in the Ball Folder is not a picture of a gate.
IMG_1884 is the one with the white fence and ‘gate’ in it.
IMG_1884 was also not shot at the ‘west end of the cutover’.
It was shot at the very south end of the ‘Sesame Area’, about
80 yards west of where the paved parts of both Lakewood
and Manzanita end. As I said in my previous post about this
image when Joy Collura asked where it was taken… if you were
the camera operator and you walked THROUGH that white gate
in the right side of the photo and walked about 60 or 70
yards EAST you would be standing on the final paved part
of both Lakewood and Manzanita where they ‘end together’.
The camera operator (Ball?) was standing exactly here ( facing
almost due north ) when IMG_1884 was taken at 3:50:35…
34.221714, -112.763162
As for IMG_1886… that is, in fact, a picture of someone
approaching the Yarnell Hill Fire Station right there in the
left of the photo from a SOUTHERLY direction, on Looka Way.
The camera is facing north-northeast on Looka Way.
Exact location of camera when photo was taken at 4:28:16 PM…
34.221873, -112.745782
1246 Looka Way, Yarnell, Arizona
Driver was approaching the Yarnell Hill Fire station from the SOUTH
which means they must have headed towards it from the Glen Ilah,
Ranch House Restaurant area. Whoever took the photo (Ball?)
was sitting in the PASSENGER seat of the vehicle and the
vehicle itself appears to have just been a small white pickup
truck since the hood is seen in the photo. It was not either one
of the aquamarine BR Supervisor trucks. It also does not appear
to have been the GM Supervisor Truck or the hood would be larger.
IMG_0886
Camera: Apple iPhone 4S
Lens: 4.3 mm
Exposure: Auto exposure, Program AE, 1/20 sec, f/2.4, ISO 50
Flash: Off, Did not fire
Date: June 30, 2013 – 4:28:16 PM
>> Marti also wrote…
>>
>> 4:28:16 Shoots the Yarnell Fire Station while riding shotgun in a white
>> pickup as they approach it from the southwest. IMG_1886.
YES. Definitely. See above. Doesn’t appear to have been GM Supt. truck
or the hood would be larger in the photo.
>> 4:28:33 Shoots the smoke as they are headed into a parking space at
>> Yarnell Fire Station. IMG_1887.
YES. Definitely. The photo was taken as the vehicle it was moving in was just
coming around the southwest corner of the Yarnell Fire Station and was exactly
here when the photo was taken just 17 seconds after IMG_1886…
34.222316, -112.746160
>> 4:43:16. Heading north on Lakewood Drive. I haven’t identified exactly where
>> this photo is. IMG_1888.
Not quite. Heading NORTH on Manzanita Drive, not Lakewood.
Driver is just past address 22761, Manzanita Drive, in Glen Ilah and heading
WEST on Manzanita Drive, and had just passed the spot where Lakewood drive
intersects with Manzanita. Google Street View even still shows the same little
black trailer sitting in the corner of the lot shown in the right of the photo just
behind the chain link fence. Exact location of vehicle was…
34.218787, -112.760251
Filename: IMG_1888.JPG
Camera: Apple iPhone 4S
Lens: 4.3 mm
Exposure: Auto exposure, Program AE, 1/15 sec, f/2.4, ISO 400
Flash: Off, Did not fire
Date: June 30, 2013 – 4:43:16 PM
Also… do we know, fer sure, if Ball actually did get a QUAD 15 minutes
earlier on that trip to the Yarnell Fire Station?
If he did… then all the photos that follow might have been taken from the
QUAD and that’s why there is no further ‘framing’ of the truck or any evidence
of any further photos of his being taken ‘out the window’ of a standard vehicle.
>> 4:43 is when Trew, along with the convoy, are arriving at the Ranch
>> House Cafe.
YES. Definitely.
>> 4:47:02. Ball shoots the Manzanita sign at the intersection of Manzanita and
>> Lakewood, and then proceeds north on Manzanita. IMG_1890.
YES. Definitely.
IMG_1890 was taken exactly here… looking at the street sign…
34.218622, -112.760221
>> In neither this nor the rest of the following photos, is there any “framing”
>> of the truck in the photos.
Correct.. but see above.
If Ball really did ‘obtain a QUAD’ from the Yarnell Fire Station then he was
probably on his own at this point. No one was ‘driving him around’ at all
from this point on and that’s also why there is no “framing” of a vehicle
windshield or window in any of the photos that follow.
>> But after looking thru these some more and mapping some of the first part
>> of the series, headed north on Manazanita, I can say now that I would almost
>> bet money he’s on the passenger side.
I agree… but if ( and only if ) he did NOT actually ‘obtain a QUAD’ during that
quick trip over to the Yarnell Fire Station. If he did get a QUAD at that time…
then he was probably ‘on his own’ at this point. No one was ‘driving him
around’ at all. He was driving himself around.
>> Ball continues to take a series of photos driving around this area in the smoke
>> and fire. His last photo in this area is taken at 5:50:53.
Yes.
>> I think it’s pretty seriously improbable these photos taken in the Glen Illah area
>> are from the GM Sup truck, which is shown in many photos from this time
>> period in the Ranch House Cafe parking lot. [later correction, the GM Sup
>> truck is shown in only one media photo, and I don’t know atm about the video.
I agree… but once again… if ( and only if ) he did NOT actually obtain a QUAD
from the Yarnell Fire Station.
NOTE: The GM Supervisor Truck is also shown clearly just sitting there at the
Ranch House Restaurant in this timeframe in the ‘Russ Reason Inteview’ video
which was shot from out on Highway 89 looking BACK at ALL the vehicles that
were there at the cafe’ in the deployment timeframe.
In the Russ Reason video… the GM Superintendent truck is also shown with its
engine running and the lights on and someone is sitting in the driver’s seat just
listening to the radio. It is not possible to determine from the video itself if that
really was Brendan McDonough sitting in it at that time and listening to the
radio… but someone was.
Another reason I wish the Blue Ridge guys were ‘free to talk about this’.
That’s still one simply question they could answer. They are ‘featured’ in that
Russ Reason video and all of them knew exactly what was going on
there in that parking lot at that time.
>> Marti also wrote…
>> Namaste!
>> Remember I’m on my second day of retirement.
>> I’m just practicing Google Earth, which is something I have to learn anyway.”
Google Earth is an amazing piece of kit.
**
** PART 2 OF MARTI’S COMMENT…
**
>> Marti also wrote…
>>
>> And then I discovered something so I wrote:
>>
>> On February 2, 2014 at 1:03 pm, Marti also wrote…
>> I just found a MAJOR THING in the above timeline.
>>
>> The images from 1888 thru 1891 are taken from 4:43:16 thru 4:48:54.
>> The next photo taken, 1892, is at 5:48:03, nearly an hour later. And it’s taken
>> at just about at the same spot as 1891. In 1891, there are live flames close by.
>> In 1892, just smoke. So it’s after that area was engulfed in the previous flames.
Yes. I agree.
>> At first I was wondering if Ball may have been on foot. He definitely wasn’t in
>> the 14:43-ish photos. And I don’t think he is either in the following photos.
Me neither.
>> So, most likely, in the earlier sequence, he was riding shotgun with whomever
>> he was riding shotgun with in a white pickup when they pulled into the YFD
>> parking lot,
Agree. Very likely ‘same driver’ both times… but once again… if ( and only if )
he never did actually obtain a QUAD at all on that trip to the Yarnell Fire Station.
>> and then they drove out to Glen Illah, and then, at precisely the time Trew and
>> convoy headed into the Ranch House Cafe, they drove back there too.
Probably so.
>> Then Ball, approx one hour later, went back out there with someone
>> else, I think, but not neccesarily, and drove around the larger area,
>> taking photos.
If he still had the QUAD that he MIGHT have obtained way back during that
earlier trip to the Yarnell Fire Station… then he was still probably on his own.
If he didn’t still have that QUAD… then yes… he might have been with the
same person who took him over to the Yarnell Fire Station in the first place.
>> This might also help explain Papich’s photo. (the iphone stamp is totally off).
>> Papich might have been with Ball (maybe even driving the BR Buggy,
>> maybe not). Papich would be the ONLY one with his camera who would
>> know where to take that photo from and how to get there. He/They would
>> have had to walk in from the road to that spot.”
Ok… I admit… you just lost me there.
WHICH Papich photo are you talking about here and what do you mean
that he would be “the ONLY one with his camera who would know where to
take that photo and how to get there”.
By ‘his camera’… are you suggesting that Papich borrowed Ball’s camera for
the ‘later’ shot? It wasn’t really the same location at all so if what you are saying
is true… Papich didn’t even do that good of a job returning to ‘the same location’.
Or am I just totally lost again here the moment you throw Papich into the mix?
>> After reading what I read this afternoon, in the Yarnell Interview Notes,
>> the reason Ball needed to stop at the YFD was to “get a quad from FD,
>> and was trying to get on the dozer line to tie in w/ Justin to check it people
>> evacuating trying to get out.” (page 4 of the BR interview.) He was still
>> worried about Justin and the dozer.
I think there was a lot of concern at that exact time whether the Esquibel
crew had fully evacuated from that ‘saw line’ work they were doing over
near the Shrine as well.
But see above…
Is there any proof he (Ball) actually did ever ‘get a QUAD from the
Yarnell Fire Station’?
That would bring up the ongoing question that has been the ‘elephant
in the room’ at all times for this incident and that is… Where the heck
was the Yarnell Fire Chief himself in all this chaos for 3 days?
There are reports that he just ‘left town’ on Friday.
Never been fully verified.
So who was ‘minding the store’ at the Yarnell Fire Station for Ball to
even ask permission from to borrow a UTV? I’d love to know the
answer to that one.
This would, of course, be the same guy who was going to resign a few
weeks later when it was discovered he had murdered a small child
some years before and buried her in the desert… but that doesn’t
mean he wasn’t still around that weekend somewhere and at least
TRYING to help put out a fire in his own town…
…but he is NOWHERE to be found in ANY documentation on this incident
following the Friday night timeframe.
>> I’m really leaning in the direction that Ball was with Brendan, and that
>> Brendan had told him about the “Options Discussion.” And of course
>> he was, with Brendan, hearing whatever might have been coming over
>> the crew frequency, if anything.
I am going to disagree with this.
I still believe Brendan left the Sesame area ALONE in the GM Supervisor Truck
and was still alone when he took his three 4:02 PM still photos on Highway 89
just north of the Ranch House Restaurant.
We still don’t know where he was going at that point, or where he ended up, but
my best guess so far is that Brendan was simply taking the ‘long way around’
on the paved roads and did eventually end up out at the Shrine Road Youth
Camp where all the other BR vehicles were parked in the 4:00 to 4:20
timeframe…
…and he was ALONE, just listening to the various ‘discussing their options’
conversations the whole time he was making this particular trip.
The ‘discussing their options’ conversations were all over by 4:05 and even if
Brendan had been headed out to the Youth Camp I don’t think he had even
made it out there by then. More like 4:10 when he arrived at the Camp…
if that’s where he was really headed at 4:02.
If Brendan wasn’t headed to the Youth Camp at 4:02 PM and heading north
( alone ) in the GM Supervisor Truck… then I have NO IDEA where else he
might have been headed or when he finally got back to the cafe’ circa 4:30.
>> Marti also wrote…
>> Brendan was in VERY good hands.
>> While Ball was in the YFD getting that quad, Brendan was hearing the
>> “Last Minutes” radio convo. That’s the exact timing.
Good point. We know for SURE that Brendan heard the “We are deploying”
message in REAL TIME that day… but as you just pointed out… we still
don’t know exactly WHERE Brendan was when he heard that.
However… I don’t think that was either the GM Supervisor Truck that was
bringing Ball to the Yarnell Fire Station in the first place… OR that Brendan
was the one driving him there. The hood of the vehicle in those two photos
taken as Ball was arriving at the Yarnell Fire Station just don’t look like
the hood of the GM Supervisor truck.
>> So, they naturally took off in the direction of Glen Illah, listening to the radio,
>> which was still carrying the last part of the “Last Minutes” convo. I think they
>> were trying to find a way to “break through.”
You lost me there.
Who are ‘they’? Brendan and Ball?
See above. I don’t think Brendan was even the one taking Ball to the
YFD station in the first place… but even if he was… if Ball had obtained
the QUAD you say he went there to get… then Brendan ( or whoever
drove Ball there ) would have left there alone and Ball would have
left there alone with the QUAD.
As far as ‘they were finding a way to break through’… I think it’s a
pretty safe bet to say that there is no proof whatsoever that Brendan
McDonough was personally involved in ANY of these attempts to
‘break through’ or the eventual (documented) ATV convoy that did
‘break through’ over through the Shrine Area and end up out there
searching for GM.
Brendan is only documented as having helped Frisby with the
‘crew manifest’ issues back in the parking lot of the Ranch House
Restaurant during all these attempts by others to ‘break through’
and find a way out west to ‘search for GM’.
>> Marti also wrote…
>> But that’s when the fire was actively burning through that part of Glen Illah.
>> So they were also hearing that the Convoy was reaching the Ranch House
>> Cafe, and “At manzanita and lockwood fire was already in the subdivision.”
>> So they turned around and headed back to the Ranch House.
I agree that there might have been a ‘they’ at this point ( either on a UTV
that they did get from the YFD station or in another vehicle of some kind )…
…but I disagree that there’s any possibility that Brendan McDonough
could have been part of this ‘they’.
See above. His first duty after hearing of the burnover was to help
Frisby with the Crew Manifest back in the cafe’ parking lot.
>> Marti also wrote…
>> About an hour later, Ball managed to commandeer another vehicle,
>> possibly with Papich, and head back to Glen Illah. He didn’t do it to
>> take pictures, altho they did take pictures. He was still trying to find
>> a way to “punch through.” That’s really evident in his photos.
Probably so, yes. It was quite a while before Ranger 58 actually located
those shelters and NO ONE really knew where they even were, or if
some of them were still just lying there wounded and in need of
immediate medical attention.
It must have been a very harrowing hour or so for everyone involved.
>> Marti also wrote…
>> That’s why I’m really curious about the UTV stuff. I haven’t had time to
>> download it yet in such a way as to look at it frame by frame.
What do you mean by ‘it’? The BR tracking video?
If so then yes… it’s a pretty big download… but if you are really
interested in controlling the point-by-point… then frame-by-frame
is the way to go. There are 15 frames per GPS update and once
you have the video it’s easy to just click 15 times and then watch
the next update appear.
>> Was the UTV also trying to punch through in Gllen Illah?
I, myself, would not characterize it that way.
It looks like they were ‘searching’ for a way to get west but they
just couldn’t figure out where the driveway to the ranch was,
or something, so they gave up.
Keep in mind… I’m absolutely sure that as the minutes ticked off
after after the deployment… people very quickly put ‘two-and-two’
together and figured out that Marsh/Steed/Crew MIGHT have been
headed for that Boulder Springs Ranch.
Cordes was there at the cafe’ and he’s the one who supposedly
told all of them about in the first place that morning so I imagine
Cordes very quickly threw that into the mix as the possibility
shortly after the news about the deployment.
So I could easily believe that these ‘search trips’ seen in the
GPS tracking in/around Glen Ilah were done by people who already
knew they were trying to find the way out to something called
the ‘Boulder Springs Ranch’… but they just couldn’t figure it out
( or it was not safe to even try to get out there the normal way )
and so they ‘gave up’ and went for the Shrine area ‘break through’
instead.
Also remember how ‘hot’ that whole area was for quite some time
after deployment. Even the Ranger 58 medic Eric Tarr, who was
eventually ‘put down’ about 100 yards north of the ranch… said
in his report that it really was still ‘too hot’ and he says he had
to use his ‘breathing gear’ for the hike to the deployment site.
>> Marti also wrote…
>> Did it ( the UTV ) eventually go up Sesame Street?
Yes. Eventually. That’s the way the ‘convoy’ of THREE UTV’s
eventually got all the way out west to where Ranger 58 was
‘hovering’ over the yellow bladder bags so they could find
them… because Ranger 58 chopper was unable to communicate
with that convoy of THREE UTV’s that it could see down there
on the ground coming out to search for GM.
>> Was it at the same time as Ball was out there?
I don’t know.
>> I think it’s significant that, if my timeline is accurate, at least one BR
>> crewmember knew exactly where GM had gone and why.
See above. I’m sure it became clear to a lot of people on the ground
and at the cafe’ that the ‘Boulder Springs Ranch’ MIGHT have been
where there were really going… whether they heard it over a radio
beforehand or not. As I said… Cordes was right there at the cafe’
and he’s the one who supposedly TOLD Marsh/Steed/Crew all
about the ‘Boulder Springs Ranch’ in the first place.
The only real mystery is WHY it actually took so long for Ranger 58
to ‘figure out’ that’s where they might have been headed.
I think the people on the ground knew long before Eric Tarr just sort
of ‘guessed it’ up in the air in Ranger 58 more than an hour AFTER
they started searching.
Why didn’t someone on the ground make SURE Ranger 58 knew
where to be looking the minute THEY all figured out that they were
probably headed to that ‘Boulder Springs Ranch’? Dunno.
>> Marti also wrote…
>> If someone can punch a hole through this timeline, that’s quite
>> fine with me.
Well… I don’t think I have actually ‘punched any holes’ in your
timeline at all… but maybe just a rethink about who may have
been with who, and when?
>> Marti also wrote…
>> But it’s the only thing, so far, that connects the dots in the interviews
>> with the dots on the ground and the dots in the visual evidence.
>>
>> Feedback?
That’s the best I can for you for now, Marti.
You STILL know more about the totality of all these Blue Ridge
folders and photos than I have had time to figure out.
I hope some/all of the ‘feedback’ above helps you in some way.
Followup: Marti… see the post directly below. It’s that spreadsheet
from the FOIA/FOIL package that contains all the descriptions
of the Blue Ridge photos and videos that they, themselves,
apparently supplied to the SAIT.
I don’t know if you have seen this…but it seems it might actually
answer some of the questions you have about some of these
Blue Ridge photos… especially Papich’s and Ball’s.
wow, WWTKTT
that was a lot to read.
the part about Joy
she wanted times not locations
she knew the area but the timing of photos did not match up to some she saw from homeowners to what those photos showed so all she wanted to know was if anyone could get time information and when you shared she can using a link she stopped asking people. Yet there is definitely a lot lacking in documenting that fire to properly assess it.
That we both believe strongly about.
A USFS Quad is not a UTV. It’s a map.
Reply to Marti Reed post on February 3, 2014 at 7:27 am
>> Marti said…
>> A USFS Quad is not a UTV. It’s a map.
Ah… okay… major disconnect, then.
QUAD is ALSO a standard reference to a 4-wheel ATV.
Here’s where you first referenced that quote about
‘Ball needing a quad’ from the YIN notes…
>> Marti wrote…
>> After reading what I read this afternoon, in the Yarnell
>> Interview Notes, the reason Ball needed to stop at the
>> YFD was to “get a quad from FD, and was trying to get
>> on the dozer line to tie in w/ Justin to check it people
>> evacuating trying to get out.”
>> (Page 4 of the BR interview.)
I really did just assume that meant Ball was trying
to borrow another 4-wheel QUAD ( ATV/UTV ) from
the Yarnell Fire Department.
Are we SURE that isn’t what the YIN notes actually meant?
WFF people use that ‘quad’ reference to UTVs / ATVs
all the time.
Is there any other evidence that it really was a MAP
he was after rather than another actual UTV/ATV?
.
By the way… here are some other quotes in the
SAIT documentation specifically referring to
UTVs / ATVs as ‘quads’…
From the Ranger 58 reports…
* Ranger 58 – Officer/Paramedic Eric Tarr.
While searching we ( Ranger 58 ) observed several
QUADS driving in the black also looking for the
Firefighters. We were requested by Air Attack to hover
over the packs so the Firefighters on the QUADS could
locate them.
* Ranger 58 – Pilot Clifford Brunsting.
After about 45 minutes we saw three QUADS traveling
up the trail to the ridgeline but we had no radio contact
with them on air to ground frequency. The QUADS had
reached the top of the trail and then turned around and
started down when we were requested by Operations to hover over the packs so the QUADS could locate them.
The QUADS turned around and headed back south up
the trail until they reached a point where the trail was
impassable.
RTS said,
” I could never understand WHY they did NOT have a 4 x 4 Engine up there to just be done with it. Bottom line, there were some sort of leadership and quality issues. My opinion.”
I am with you, one or two type six engines should have been able put it to bed if they got up there by 6 or 7am Saturday morning. Why ferry all the people and equipment when the right equipment could just drive up there? Not only did the IA attempt fail, it cost more money and was higher risk than using engines on the hill. What the F*@&???
Chief Andersen was the Yarnell Fire Chief for 12 years. He had
retired just 2 years before but still lived there on Lakewood drive.
He DID go over and talk to Shumate and told him all about the
BLM helicopter and Bambi bucket that was close by and all
the local ranch owners that had already given permission for
any chopper to dip water at any time.
Nothing happened.
A few good bucket drops early on Saturday and it would have
been over with. It didn’t happen ANY time on Saturday,
according to Chief Andersen and according to documentation.
I still think a good look needs to be taken at Saturday alone.
It is still POSSIBLE that there were TWO Yarnell fires.
The one that burned itself out on Saturday…
…and then then new one started by the crew that was
working out there on Saturday afternoon using either
unauthorized or badly executed ‘burnouts’ down to
that jeep trail..
I agree, Saturday itself should have a facilitated learning analysis or staff ride. There are some serious lessons to be learned from that day alone!
I just made another connection while driving to and from my local 7-11.
Ball drove one of the BR Buggies in in the morning. Papich rode the UTV shotgun in in the morning. The reason Papich drives a BR Buggy out from the Youth Camp is because Ball is not there to do it, because he’s with Brendan in the GM sup truck. There’s a bit of teamwork going on here. Ball’s a squad leader, maybe Papich’s squad leader.
I was wondering if, indeed, when Ball is shooting his later sequence at Glen Illah, it would make sense that Papich would be with him so he could take the two photos he took. I was wondering, could Papich be driving that Blue Ridge Buggy he was driving earlier (because Ball’s photos look like they’re taken from the passenger side of something more resembling the windshield of a buggy than a pickup)?
And now I’m realizing, of course he could. Ball really wanted to go back out to Glen Illah to try to find a way to punch through and take some pictures. Papich wanted to go out and shoot what the smoke looked like from the same spot he shot it that morning, to show the dramatic difference. Easy peasy. And off they went. Ball had enough authority to make it happen.
My New Standard Disclaimer: This is my guess and assumption only…nothing about this post should be construed as truth about the incident.
It also tells me that that little green house, since it had been really cleaned up and re-roofed since it was put on Google Earth in January of 2012 looking like it was about to fall down, and the intense brush surrounding it south of it has been cut down way to the south of it, survived that fire just fine.
Strike what I just wrote above. That house wasn’t where/what i thought it was. Sorry.
PS For anybody who still may think Ball might have been driving/in the BR Utility truck towing the trailer, the BR Utility truck is green, not white.
I’m gonna repost what I wrote earlier today, because I think it’s really important and I would REALLY like some feedback on it. Especially now that I spent the afternoon reading both of the totally bungled Yarnell Interview Notes and the Inspection Narrative (and especially since I retired from this outfit yesterday):
“Marti Reed
on February 2, 2014 at 11:00 am said:
You have some confusion in your comments about the second half of the scenario. I’ll leave out the Papich photos part, because that’s confusing you, I think.
Here’s Ball’s timeline via his iphone photos:
3:50:35 Shoots a gate in the Sesame area on the west end of the cutover. IMG_1886. (At least someone somewhere wrote that that is what that gate is.)
4:28:16 Shoots the Yarnell Fire Station while riding shotgun in a white pickup as they approach it from the southwest. IMG_1886.
4:28:33 Shoots the smoke as they are headed into a parking space at Yarnell Fire Station. IMG_1887.
4:43:16. Heading north on Lakewood Drive. I haven’t identified exactly where this photo is. IMG_1888.
Lakewood Drive heads north from 89 right across from the Ranch House Restaurant.
4:43 is when Trew, along with the convoy, are arriving at the Ranch House Cafe.
4:47:02. Ball shoots the Manzanita sign at the intersection of Manzanita and Lakewood, and then proceeds north on Manzanita. IMG_1890.
In neither this nor the rest of the following photos, is there any “framing” of the truck in the photos.
But after looking thru these some more and mapping some of the first part of the series, headed north on Manazanita, I can say now that I would almost bet money he’s on the passenger side.
Ball continues to take a series of photos driving around this area in the smoke and fire. His last photo in this area is taken at 5:50:53.
I think it’s pretty seriously improbable these photos taken in the Glen Illah area are from the GM Sup truck, which is shown in many photos from this time period in the Ranch House Cafe parking lot. [later correction, the GM Sup truck is shown in only one media photo, and I don’t know atm about the video]
Namaste!
Remember I’m on my second day of retirement.
I’m just practicing Google Earth, which is something I have to learn anyway.”
And then I discovered something so I wrote:
“Marti Reed
on February 2, 2014 at 1:03 pm said:
I just found a MAJOR THING in the above timeline.
The images from 1888 thru 1891 are taken from 4:43:16 thru 4:48:54.
The next photo taken, 1892, is at 5:48:03, nearly an hour later. And it’s taken at just about at the same spot as 1891. In 1891, there are live flames close by. In 1892, just smoke. So it’s after that area was engulfed in the previous flames.
At first I was wondering if Ball may have been on foot. He definitely wasn’t in the 14:43-ish photos. And I don’t think he is either in the following photos.
So, most likely, in the earlier sequence, he was riding shotgun with whomever he was riding shotgun with in a white pickup when they pulled into the YFD parking lot, and then they drove out to Glen Illah, and then, at precisely the time Trew and convoy headed into the Ranch House Cafe, they drove back there too.
Then Ball, approx one hour later, went back out there with someone else, I think, but not neccesarily, and drove around the larger area, taking photos.
This might also help explain Papich’s photo. (the iphone stamp is totally off). Papich might have been with Ball (maybe even driving the BR Buggy, maybe not). Papich would be the ONLY one with his camera who would know where to take that photo from and how to get there. He/They would have had to walk in from the road to that spot.”
After reading what I read this afternoon, in the Yarnell Interview Notes, the reason Ball needed to stop at the YFD was to “get a quad from FD, and was trying to get on the dozer line to tie in w/ Justin to check it people evacuating trying to get out.” (page 4 of the BR interview.) He was still worried about Justin and the dozer.
I’m really leaning in the direction that Ball was with Brendan, and that Brendan had told him about the “Options Discussion.” And of course he was, with Brendan, hearing whatever might have been coming over the crew frequency, if anything.
Brendan was in VERY good hands.
While Ball was in the YFD getting that quad, Brendan was hearing the “Last Minutes” radio convo. That’s the exact timing.
So, they naturally took off in the direction of Glen Illah, listening to the radio, which was still carrying the last part of the “Last Minutes” convo. I think they were trying to find a way to “break through.”
But that’s when the fire was actively burning through that part of Glen Illah. So they were also hearing that the Convoy was reaching the Ranch House Cafe, and “At manzanita and lockwood fire was already in the subdivision.” So they turned around and headed back to the Ranch House.
About an hour later, Ball managed to commandeer another vehicle, possibly with Papich, and head back to Glen Illah. He didn’t do it to take pictures, altho they did take pictures. He was still trying to find a way to “punch through.” That’s really evident in his photos.
That’s why I’m really curious about the UTV stuff. I haven’t had time to download it yet in such a way as to look at it frame by frame. Was the UTV also trying to punch through in Gllen Illah? Did it eventually go up Sesame Street? Was it at the same time as Ball was out there?
I think it’s significant that, if my timeline is accurate, at least one BR crewmember knew exactly where GM had gone and why.
If someone can punch a hole through this timeline, that’s quite fine with me. But it’s the only thing, so far, that connects the dots in the interviews with the dots on the ground and the dots in the visual evidence.
Feedback?
WTKTT,
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/dpmmrutwwk4a45b/ubaT3WIfl8/_README.xlsx
Yarnell 088 photo of VLAT and helitanker according to caption
Interview with BRIHC “The crew witness’ a near miss with the VLAT and the helitanker”
I saw the video clip. They said they turned it in to the SAIT. Selective data/evidence gathering by the SAIT?
RTS…
Is THIS the video you say you ‘saw’ yourself? ( Link below )
It DOES show the helicopter at the start with the VLAT
on approach… but it doesn’t really ‘cleary’ show the
near miss like Brendan’s does.
I’m just trying to find out if this is the one you were
referring to. As for what might still be ‘missing’ from the
SAIT/FOIA package… that’s still to be determined.
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/dpmmrutwwk4a45b/WmcD_VMFvp/Mccord#lh:null-yarnell%20088.MOV
WTKTT,
I’m pretty sure the one I saw was different than the link you posted.
RTS… I just hand-checked the spreadsheet
in the Blue Ridge Folder in Mr. Dougherty’s
online Dropbox against everything that’s actually
in Mr. Dougherty’s dropbox and everything listed
in that spreadsheet is accounted for.
That Yarnell088 Movie listed in the spreadsheet
in Mccord’s folder that has the description
“close call with helicopter and airplane” is there
in Mr. Dougherty’s Dropbox and its the same link
I gave above and you checked already.
If that’s not the ‘close call’ movie you have seen
in Blue Ridge’s possession then there are only
a few possibilities here…
1) Blue Ridge never gave what you saw to
the SAIT. That’s ok. It’s never been a criminal
investigation and they DID give them at least
one movie showing essentially the same thing.
No big whoop.
2) Blue Ridge DID give that movie you say you
saw to the SAIT… and it didn’t make it into the
FOIA/FOIL release. That ( to me ) amounts to
a ‘big whoop’. That means the SAIT actually
didn’t release everything they had when they
were SUPPOSED to.
3) Blue Ridge DID give that movie you say you
saw to the SAIT… it WAS included in the
FOIA/FOIL release… and it just hasn’t appeared
yet in Mr. Dougherty’s Dropbox. This would be
WEIRD because it would also mean that one
movie that Mr. Dougherty just hasn’t uploaded
yet ALSO mysteriously does NOT appear in
the official spreadsheet describing what’s
supposed to be in the folder. I’d say this option
(3) is HIGHLY unlikely.
So it’s really either option (1) or (2) above.
**
** WHAT REALLY HAPPENED ON SATURDAY?
**
** THE ONGOING DISCUSSION ABOUT WHAT HAPPENED SATURDAY
>> On January 25, 2014 at 8:37 pm, WantsToKnowTheTruth said:
Regarding Saturday… and how the fire mysteriously went from
being ‘fully contained’ and ‘almost out’ to suddenly ‘escaping across
the two-track’…
Do we ( even now ) REALLY know what that DOC crew was actually
DOING up there on Saturday?
From the look of the Fernandez photos and his ‘fly-around’ at 10:00 AM
Saturday morning… it looks like all a full crew would have had to do is piss
on whatever was left of the thing and that would have been the end of it.
Is there actually a chance that this crew decided to actually light their
own NEW fires ( indirect attack, attempt to burnoff to the jeep trail,
or whatever ) on Saturday?
I guess what I am saying is… were there actually TWO Yarnell fires?
The one started by the lightning that had pretty much burned out by 10:00 AM
Saturday… and then ANOTHER fire started by the DOC crew that ended up
getting away from them and ‘escaping’ over the jeep trail there?
Has anyone seen any unit logs or activity reports from Saturday morning
that explain EXACTLY what that other crew was actually doing up
there on Saturday… and HOW they were going about it?
>> On January 25, 2014 at 10:29 pm, Robert the Second replied…
WTKTT,
It’s POSSIBLE that they may have fired off the road since it would have been
more-or-less a parallel line with unburned fuel. And it is a function of fireline
construction at the Crew Leader level. But at that time of day, usually NOT
a good idea. Possible.
It’s also possible MAYBE they had lit it off earlier the night before or early in the
morning and it was just a ‘dirty burn’ and never really took until the temp came up
and the humidity dropped with a little wind. Very possible.
Or it could’ve just picked up on its own during that same weather scenario and
because it was NOT burned out, picked up in the unburned and made a run
their line and breached it. Very possible.
I could never understand WHY they did NOT have a 4 x 4 Engine up there to
just be done with it. Bottom line, there were some sort of leadership and quality
issues. My opinion.
>> On January 26, 2014 at 12:02 am, WantsToKnowTheTruth replied…
Spent the afternoon getting up to speed on Saturday events.
Something strange happened, fer sure, but it’s not documented.
According to all documentation AND Russ Shumate’s own SAIT interview…
there was basically NO FIRE left even around Saturday AM.
Everyone felt comfortable letting a trainee handle things at that point.
Shumate is then TOLD it’s contained on ALL FOUR sides.
Once he was TOLD that… he lets the SEATS and Engines go.
Next thing anyone knows… fire is re-ignited with 20 foot flame lengths and is
running and has jumped (escaped over) the jeep trail.
WTF?
Biggest problem on Saturday appears to have been that everyone knew they
just needed to spit on it with a chopper and a bucket and it would have been
all over, but (apparently?) no one could get that fully coordinated?
There is NO direct evidence that the Lewis DOC crew that was up there
working that area on Saturday was ever told to do ‘indirect’ stuff, or backburn
anything, or whether they ever tried a burnout down to the east flank two-track…
…but maybe they actually DID… and screwed it up?
**
** UPDATE
**
I was looking for something else TODAY and stumbled across the following
in the Yarnell Investigation notes.
It’s the LAST two lines of the SAIT interview with Darrell Willis when
Willis was just adding comments to his interview about things that
took place on Saturday… as reported to him by Russ Shumate.
From SAIT YIN interview with Darrell Willis…
– Russ (Shumate) said they thought fire was a done deal ( Saturday afternoon ),
then fire got out and he was unsure where it was.
– Heard rumor that the (Lewis) crew fired about one mile of line??
So that seems to be Darrell Willis himself acknowledging TWO things…
1) Russ Shumate WAS told the fire was ‘a done deal’ sometime Saturday
and that’s why he let the SEATS and the Engines go, like he said.
2) Even as early as Saturday night, when Willis first talked to Shumate, there
was (apparently) already a RUMOR going around that the Lewis DOC crew
had “fired one mile of line” even though the fire had been already
(supposedly) OUT.
NONE of the ‘official’ reports have mentioned anything about this possible
activity on the part of the Lewis DOC crew on Saturday around the time
the fire was supposedly ‘a done deal’.
Reply to Marti Reed post on February 1, 2014 at 4:05 am said:
>> Marti wrote…
>>
>> As long as I’m sitting here trying to make myself go back to sleep,
>> I may as well describe two other visual mysteries that continue to
>> baffle me.
>>
>> 1. Papich, for most of the “evacuation” from the Youth Camp, appears
>> to be driving one of the BR Buggies. But his last two photos (3957/3958)
>> from his iphone, at about 4:35 PM are taken from the same hill over the
>> same little green house where he photographed the BR Sup truck and
>> a Buggy that morning while riding shot-gun on the UTV. I cannot, for the
>> life of me, figure out how he got there to do that, and what vehicle got
>> him out there to do that. It couldn’t have just “happened.”
Marti… the problem there might be the exact location of the ‘little green house’
that you are using as a reference point.
The photos Papich took with that ‘little green house’ in them were not
taken from a ‘hill’ or over near where Lakewood meets Manzanita.
They were taken from Highway 89 itself from right near the Ranch House
Restaurant… looking due west out towards the deployment site. ( That’s what
that little yellow circle represents in that copy of one of Papich’s photos ).
The two Papich photos (3957/3958) were taken from the passenger
side of a vehicle that had to be in the southbound lane of Highway 89
and just about to pull into the Ranch House Restaurant.
They were taken with the vehicle sitting on Highway 89 exactly here…
34.213853, -112.755505
The camera looks ‘slightly elevated’ which, to me, indicates that Papich
was sitting in the Passenger side of one of the large BR Crew Carriers
just as it was about to pull into the Ranch House Restaurant parking lot.
That would provide just about the right amount of ‘elevation’ to account
for the way the (short) telephone pole in the left side of the pictures looks.
Wow. I think you’re absolutely right. Back to the drawing boards. Except I really need to retire from this outfit and catch up with about 50 bazillion other things.
You have no idea how many hours I spent trying to find that little place fronting on Lakewood that looked oh so similar to this one.
But maybe your correction is not so difficult for me to digest.
So he’s photographing, in the morning. the Sup truck and a buggy heading north from close to 89 on Lakewood from a buggy. Not from the UTV.
Which still leaves the question of whether the Utility truck hauled the ATV all the way in or unloaded it somewhere other than where the BR crew at first staged. We don’t know that.
That may not change the rest of the trajectory.
Namaste
PS How the heck did you find that???
WTKTT,
The ‘split in the fireline’ that you refer to above is called “splitting the head.” The result is that you now have TWO SEPARATE HEADS instead of one head or a flank. And it’s dangerous,.
“Direct Attack – A direct attack involves dropping water on the burning fuel along the fire line or the head of the fire for direct extinguishment…. Oftentimes, terrain and or the rate of spread of the fire makes this approach impractical and CAN CAUSE THE HEAD TO SPLIT, WHICH IS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS FOR GROUND PERSONNEL.” (EMPHASIS ADDED)
Taken from a CDF Aerial Support article.http://www.alea.org/public/airbeat/back_issues/nov_dec_2008/AerialSupressWildFIre.pdf
Well… as right as Blue Ridge interviewees ( Frisby, Brown,
Fueller, Ball ) might be about the Helitanker actually being
the CAUSE of that ‘split’ that afternoon…
…you don’t need to take their word for it about the obviously
‘uncoordinated’ Air Attack that day.
I mean… have you SEEN the only video that Brendan McDonough
took that day? Shot from his lookout post?
For the sake of a few seconds… The Yarnell Hill Fire could
have just been all about the fatal crash of a Helitanker and
one of the only two VLAT DC10s in the country.
Brendan captured that ‘near miss’ of the Helitanker and
the VLAT in chilling full-color.
It’s like the fixed-wings had NO IDEA what the choppers
were doing that day… and vice-versa.
I really do hope that ALL of the Blue Ridge Hotshots ( Mccord
included ) are free to talk about all this one day without being
frickin’ afraid of losing their jobs.
BRHS have a MUCH better video clip of that VLAT and helitanker near miss.
Where is that one?
**
** HELMET CAM CREW WAS PARKED UP AT ICP AT 1515
Found ’em.
In THIS video…
VID 20130630 151521 240 – Yarnell Hill Fire video provided by AZSF crew
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_Lw9kCppj4
The crew that is actually FILMING this video out the passenger side of their
vehicle is LEAVING the ICP command center up at the Model Creek School
up in Peeples Valley at exactly 1515 on June 30, 2013.
At exactly +0:36 seconds into their video… they accidentally capture the
entire ‘Helmet Cam Video’ crew VEHICLES ( all 3 of them ) parked there
on the side of the road up by the ICP.
They are the EXACT same vehicles that are GOING to be seen in the
Helmet-Cam video shot at the St. Joseph Shrine parking lot one hour and
twenty three minutes from now… trailers and all.
Only the vehicles are there. No crew. So they all must have been INSIDE
the Incident Command Post at the moment THIS video was shot OR
‘bombing around’ in their UTVs since they are not in their trailers at 1515.
In the video… vehicles are passed by in this order…
1) First seen is the regular-size aquamarine standard pickup ( minimal
access-cab style with hard-enclosed bed ) with the white UTV trailer.
This one appears later in the Helmet-Cam video just beyone the FF with
the black beard and ball cap seen when the Helmet-Cam pans just
east in the Shrine parking lot for a moment. The white UTV trailer
ride-out is DOWN in this video and the UTV is not there so they might
not have been in the ICP at this point. They might have been out
‘bombing around’ Model Creek in there UTV’s up NEAR the IC
in this 1515 timeframe. Standard USFS AZ Forestry ‘Shield’ logo
is on the door. White stripes on side. Says ‘Fire’ in the stripes
and Vehicle ID ( In big white letters on front ) is DV-93.
2) Next ( at +0:37 in this video ) comes the first white extended cab
pickup truck that will be seen in the Helmet Cam video. This one is
has the ‘access cab’ configuration ( big side window but no double
doors ) and does NOT have a trailer attached. Same standard
USF AZ Forestry ‘Shield’ logo on passenger door. This is the actual
vehicle that the Helmet-Cam operator himself would be seen getting
into and driving away from the Shrine parking lot as the GM final
radio transmissions were being captured.
3) Next ( at +0:38 in this video )
This one is same exact white extended cab pickup configuration
as (2) but this one has forest green double stripes on the side.
This is also the one that has the flat-style emergency lights rack
mounted on the cab roof. The other white pickup does not have this.
This one also has the black-metal ‘deer chucker’ mounted on the front
whereas the other white pickup has no ‘deer chucker’.
Green stripes on side have the word ‘Fire’ inside them right over
the rear wheel cowlings. Same standard USF AZ Forestry ‘Shield’ logo on
passenger door. Vehicle ID ( In Forest green letters on front ) is
AZ-PNF (Prescott National Forest ). This is the vehicle that will first
be seen in the Helmet-Cam video right behind the FF with the white
helmet when the Helmet-Cam pans east in the St. Joseph Shrine
parking lot. It will be seen again later ( with the green stripes in closeup )
a few minutes later in the Helmet-Cam video after they move a little
east and stop at that next location to “Clone a mobile”.
SO… at least now we know EXACTLY where this ‘Helmet-Cam’ crew
was at 1515… one hour and twenty four minutes before we would see
them shooting the Helmet-Cam video at the St. Joseph Shrine.
What remains to be fully documented is…
WHO are these guys, really?
WHO sent them to the St. Joseph Shrine after 1515, and for what reason?
WHERE did they go after evacuating from the Shrine area?
Stay tuned.
A close-up picture of vehicle number (3) from post above
that appears in the Helmet-Cam video.
This is one of the 2 vehicles seen in St. Joseph Shrine parking lot
when the Helmet-Cam operator turned the camera EAST
for a moment at the start of the video.
In the Helmet-Cam video… it’s the vehicle that is just east of the
firefighter seen at that moment with the white helmet standing
next to the firefighter with the black cap and the black beard.
It was photographed by Scott Ash during one of the
processions for Granite Mountain following the tragedy.
Flickr account name: Scott Ash ( Handle ashman88 )
http://www.flickr.com/photos/scottash/9252507912/in/photostream/
License plate number is in ‘Department of the Interior 2011 series’
format… blue letters on a white background.
US GOVERNMENT
A360145
FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
The ‘A’ code for this series format is the reserved
alphabetic prefix code for the ‘Agriculture Department’.
I am a little con fused on your logo definitions.
USFS logo is Different From Arizona DF.
also BLM is different from both.
However The license plates on BLM & USFS are the same US GOVERNMENT plates.
Arizona Department of Forestry would have Arizona plates.
Dose that help any?
Mr. Powers…
Here is the exact ‘Forestry Service’
‘Shield’ logo that is on the driver and passenger
side doors of all THREE of the vehicles seen
in the Helmet-Cam video…
http://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_MEDIA/stelprdb5437058.png
Forest Service
U ( Picture of a Tree ) S
Department of Agriculture
The ID number of the lead truck ( the one the
Helmet-Cam operator was actually driving ) is…
AZ-PNF
Obviously ‘Arizona – Prescott National Forest’.
I’m still trying to find out exactly who these
fellas are and what their assignment(s) were
that day.
WTKTT,
Correct. The guys in the helmet cam video are from the PNF and worked on the fire as Task Force Leaders and other misc. fireline overhead.
WTKTT if your trying to be a smart ass fine I know what a FS shield is.
you said earlier that USFS Arizona division of forestry shield did not make science. And BLM & USFS
license are all US Government. evidently you are not confused…..
OR MAYBE???
Paragraph 1.
I will rephrase the statement you made was the standard
USFS AZ Forestry shield LOGO. (2 separate organizations not 1) I hope that is plainer.
Mr. Powers…
Total miscommunication there.
I was ADMITTING that I might
not have ‘labelled’ what that
‘Shield’ is on the doors of the
trucks in my text….
…So I gave you a link showing
you exactly what it looks
like and what it says…
…expecting YOU to tell ME
what the proper reference
to that ( in text ) should be.
Both of the links I posted
above show clearly what
was really on the doors.
It is what it is.
I’m still just trying to find
out WHO these fellas
really were. Any ideas
on names?
Cant help you with names.
Great catches!!!
Can you tell me again what is it that I should use to download video from YouTube? There’s just no way to see anything in these vids without slowing them down, and Mr Dougherty hasn’t posted this one to his dropbox yet.
http://www.clipconverter.cc/
Works like a champ.
Just paste any YouTube link into the input field.
Click ‘Continue’.
Accept defaults.
Click ‘Start’
Wait a moment.
Click ‘Download’
Save file to local hard disk.
You can also just download the AUDIO track
from anything on YouTube if that’s all
you are interested in.
Thank you!
Because I really, really hate skinny threads, I’m gonna write this here, although it’s a response to the earlier increasingly skinnily-threaded conversation about the dozer, and where it went, and where where Ball was in relationship to it, and all things otherwise connected.
Sometime way early this morning I wrote about how one of the enigmas still totally befuddling me was how Ball was driving around Glen Illah, shooting his last batch of photos later that evening.
Looking again, this evening at his earlier photos, I see that at 1628 he takes a photo, with his iphone, while RIDING SHOTGUN in a white pickup truck (and I have NO IDEA as to the id of that truck), as they approach the Yarnell Fire Department from the southwest.
About 15 seconds later, he takes a second shot, as they pull into a parking spot there.
(At about16:29 Papich shoots his last pic, with his iphone, of the evacuation of the Youth Camp.
At 1635, Trew heads out of the Youth Camp, according to the GPS.
At 1643, according to his GPS, Trew arrives at the Ranch House Cafe parking lot.)
At 1643, Ball takes a photo approaching the Lakewood-Manzanita intersection out in Glen Illah.
(At 1635, according to the timestamp, Papich shoots an iphone photo from just above the little green house on Manznita that he photographed that morning while riding shotgun on the UTV. This can’t even possibly be an accurate time-stamp. But it is a REAL photograph, and he did take it very INTENTIONALLY, for a REASON, so I’m wondering if possibly he managed to hitch a ride out with Ball and whoever was driving that WHITE PICKUP TRUCK. I am truly mystified by all this.)
So I just decided to add this into the the whole conversation about the dozer (and what happened to it), Ball, and the still rather mystifying timeline off all things later that afternoon.
And to underscore, I have NO CLUE whose white pickup truck Ball was riding shotgun in. Or how he got into it, or when, or where.
Or whether he was still in it, or driving/riding in something different when he took his pictures wandering through that burning, smoking, area of Glen Illah.
I’m sure this most likely doesn’t solve the riddle about the dozer, or where it went or why, but it does add a few dots to the timeline of where Ball was, even though they add a few more questions.
WTK, I am really looking forward to, whenever you get the time, to work out and post a timeline of the GPS data related to Trew and the UTV after they were in the Ranch House parking lot. I don’t know how/if what I’m trying to figure out relates to that.
And I think it also means Ball is on a rather different trajectory from the rest of his crew, but I have no idea what it is.
Marti… I hear you about ‘white pickup trucks’.
They were all over the frickin’ place… and almost looks like
the same Arizona dealership had a contract with the entire AZ
Forestry Division and Prescott Fire Department, or something.
They all really just look the same after a while.
Example: I’m still trying hard to identify EXACTLY who that crew
is taking the Helmet-Cam. Turns out there are THREE
vehicles in that Helmet-Cam video… and TWO of them are
towing trailers. The vehicle that the Helmet-Cam operator
himself is driving seems to have had a trailer attached as
well. It only comes into view for 6 frames near the start of
the video but it’s a double-wheel trailer with the smaller
tires and it has some kind of RED fendered UTV in it…
…but NONE of these ‘white extended/access cab style’
pickups in the Helmet Cam video seem to be the same
‘white extended/access cab’ pickups seen heading south
at 4:16 in the Air Study video.
More about all that later.
Regarding how Ball got back down to near Lakewood and
Manzanita ( where the BR truck with UTV trailer might have
been )…
I hate to blow your mind some more on this but I just found
this in those totally ‘random access’ Blue Ridge SAIT interview
notes…
Page 9 of YIN…
From Interview with Blue Ridge ( Frisby, Brown, Fueller, Ball )…
Brian tells Trew we need to move our rigs and GM. Get to the trucks Brian gets GM with only minutes before the fire would have been on them. Everyone is moving out. Trew goes in GM chase truck calls Eric can you see me? Where the dozer line took off? We are bumping the trucks to the shrine…Eric says affirm I know where that’s at (Trew can tell Eric is moving and talking that he’s exerting himself) Trew tells Eric we will keep your trucks and Brendan until you meet up with them…copy.
Did you see this sentence?…
“Trew goes in GM chase truck”
Could that POSSIBLY mean a scenario like the following?…
Brown does take off from the Youth Camp to drop crew off
to pick up the GM Carriers… but he does so in the GM
Supervisor Truck instead.
It’s POSSIBLE that Brendan did drive the GM Sup truck all
the way around the long way on the paved roads and out
to the Youth Camp… but now the GM Sup truck is used
to go drop BR crew off at GM Crew Carriers.
That would explain why the GM Sup truck is eventually NOT
seen in the BR convoy video when the evacuated.
Maybe Trew drove the GM Sup Truck out to where the GM
Carriers were parked ( as their notes seem to say he did )…
but Ball was riding along and HE continued on with the
GM Sup truck down to Manzanita/Lockwood where the
BR turck and UTV trailer were.
So Brown goes BACK to the Youth Camp in the GM
vehicles ( which is why we see his GPS returning )… but
Ball went on down to Manzanita/Lockwood, took those
photos, dropped ANOTHER BR crew member off to
evac BR pickup with UTV trailer… and then they just
exited Glen Ilah on Lakewood over to the Ranch House
Restaurant.
Whew. I’m dizzy now.
I suppose all that is possible for explaining those 5 little
words in the Blue Ridge interview…
“Trew goes in GM chase truck”
Wouldn’t this all be a lot easier if we could just talk to either
the people who wrote these frickin’ cryptic notes… or to
the people they were talking to in the first place?
More possible dizziness ( sorry )…
Maybe Brendan really did come into play here more than
has even been fully documented.
Maybe Brendan really did do all of the following…
1) Exited the Sesame area ‘right away’ (alone) in the
BR Sup truck right after Frisby dropped him off and
right after he took those series of pictures trying to
capture that little ‘smoke tornado’ there by the trucks.
2) Brendan exited SOUTH towards Glen Ilah alone
in the GM Sup truck ( this still matches what a local
witness reported seeing ).
3) Brendan goes NORTH on Highway 89 and takes
those other 3 pictures ( at 4:02 PM ) as he is heading
north and was just north of the Ranch House Restaurant.
4) Brendan continued NORTH on Highway 89, took
a left onto Shrine Road… and then did, in fact, just
drive all the way west on Shrine road to the Youth
Camp where BR vehicles were staged.
5) Moments later… it’s time to do the ‘dust off’ on the
GM Crew Carriers. Brown (Trew) and Ball and 1 other BR
crew jump into the GM Supervisor truck. Brendan
is still driving.
6) Brendan is then the one who drives the GM Sup
truck WEST on the dirt cutover road and drops
Brown (Trew) and the 1 other BR crew guy off at
the GM trucks. They drive the GM trucks east back
to the Shrine and that’s how we see Brown’s GPS
going in both directions to get GM Carriers.
7) But Brendan didn’t go back to the Shrine on the
cutover road. He continued SOUTH through the
Sesame area with Ball, and then dropped Ball off
where Manzanita meets Lakewood so Ball could
evac the other BR utility truck with the UTV trailer.
8) Brendan then just hops over through Glen Ilah
on Lakewood and goes right to the Ranch House
Restaurant.
9) Ball stops to take those pictures there at this
time at Lakewood/Manzanita… and then just drives
the BR truck with UTV trailer through Glen Ilah over
to the Ranch House Restaurant.
10) Everybody (and all these vehicles) all end up at
the Ranch House Restaurant within a few minutes
of each other… and Tom Story then takes his
photograph showing them all there as if they all
arrived at the same time.
That sounds very possible base on the need to get BR drivers to the GM trucks etc.
Well… Brendan had to be headed
SOMEWHERE north of the Ranch House
Restaurant (cafe’) at 4:02… not that we can
finally see the pictures he took.
He was already headed north on Highway
89 and AWAY from the cafe’ at 4:02, and
I can’t imagine where else he would have
been headed at that time other than to
take the long way around to the Shrine
road Youth Camp where the BR vehicles
were already staged.
Something also then still has to explain
why the GM Supervisor truck is NOT
seen in that Blue Ridge ‘Convoy’ video
when they all left the Youth Camp.
Before we could see Brendan’s own
photos… it made sense to me that he
would have just exited the Sesame Area
(alone) in the GM Supt. Truck and just
gone straight to the cafe’… since Frisby
already knew that’s where everyone
would be headed shortly, anyway…
…but Brendan’s own pictures from 4:02
that place him alone, in the GM Sup truck,
heading NORTH on Highway 89 means
he was headed somewhere other than
the cafe’ after he left the Sesame area.
All of these ‘pieces of the puzzle’ that the
the SAIT has left us with will all fall into
place pretty soon, I think.
Bad typo in first paragraph above.
Meant to say…
“…NOW that we can finally see the
pictures he (Brendan) took.”
I do wish we could EDIT these posts,
somehow, after sending them.
One other minute detail I’ve noticed about Trew’s GPS Tracking and the dropping of of the BR Crew to drive the GM Buggies.
Trew never actually is in the GM Buggy Parking Spot. He stops on the road up above and to the east of it. He’s .22 miles away.
And, also, in Trew’s timeline we have to remember that he makes a quick trip down to the north end of the Manzanita/Glenn Illah area, then turns around and comes back.
Oops. This should have gone below my comment below. Read it first.
You have some confusion in your comments about the second half of the scenario. I’ll leave out the Papich photos part, because that’s confusing you, I think.
Here’s Ball’s timeline via his iphone photos:
3:50:35 Shoots a gate in the Sesame area on the west end of the cutover. IMG_1886. (At least someone somewhere wrote that that is what that gate is.)
4:28:16 Shoots the Yarnell Fire Station while riding shotgun in a white pickup as they approach it from the southwest. IMG_1886.
4:28:33 Shoots the smoke as they are headed into a parking space at Yarnell Fire Station. IMG_1887.
4:43:16. Heading north on Lakewood Drive. I haven’t identified exactly where this photo is. IMG_1888.
Lakewood Drive heads north from 89 right across from the Ranch House Restaurant.
4:43 is when Trew, along with the convoy, are arriving at the Ranch House Cafe.
4:47:02. Ball shoots the Manzanita sign at the intersection of Manzanita and Lakewood, and then proceeds north on Manzanita. IMG_1890.
In neither this nor the rest of the following photos, is there any “framing” of the truck in the photos.
But after looking thru these some more and mapping some of the first part of the series, headed north on Manazanita, I can say now that I would almost bet money he’s on the passenger side.
Ball continues to take a series of photos driving around this area in the smoke and fire. His last photo in this area is taken at 5:50:53.
I think it’s pretty seriously improbable these photos taken in the Glen Illah area are from the GM Sup truck, which is shown in many photos from this time period in the Ranch House Cafe parking lot.
Namaste!
Remember I’m on my second day of retirement.
I’m just practicing Google Earth, which is something I have to learn anyway.
Where did Incident Command move after Evacuating Model Creek School? I have it in my head they went to Yarnell Fire Department. Is that a mistake?
I don’t think it ever actually ‘moved’ at all.
That was one of the ( over 80 known ) errors
in the ADOSH report. ADOSH said they
‘evacuated’ the Model Creek School when
they never really did.
The Yarnell Hill Fire Station WAS the
‘ICP’ on Saturday and early morning
on Sunday… but it moved up north
to the Model Creek Elementary School
right after the 7:00 AM Sunday breifing
at the Yarnell Fire Station and it never
went back there.
That’s my understanding, anyway.
Thank you!
WTKTT and Marti,
Several folks, claiming as many as “80 inaccuracies and inconsistencies” in the ADOSH report, state that the ICP was NEVER evacutaed and NEVER moved.
I just found a MAJOR THING in the above timeline.
The images from 1888 thru 1891 are taken from 4:43:16 thru 4:48:54.
The next photo taken, 1892, is at 5:48:03, nearly an hour later. And it’s taken just about at the same spot as 1891. In 1891, there are live flames close by. In 1892, just smoke. So it’s after that area was engulfed in the previous flames.
At first I was wondering if Ball may have been on foot. He definitely wasn’t in the 14:43-ish photos. And I don’t think he is either in the following photos.
So, most likely, he was riding shotgun with whomever he was riding shotgun with in a white pickup when they pulled into the YFD parking lot, and then they drove out to Glen Illah, and then, at precisely the time Trew and convoy headed into the Ranch House Cafe, they drove back there too.
Then Ball, approx one hour later, went back out there with someone else, I think, but not neccesarily, and drove around the larger area, taking photos.
This might also help explain Papich’s photo. (the iphone stamp is totally off). Papich might have been with Ball (maybe even driving the BR Buggy, maybe not). Papich would be the ONLY one with his camera who would know where to take that photo from and how to get there. He/They would have had to walk in from the road to that spot.
**
** AIR STUDY VIDEO SHOT AT 1613 ( 4:13 PM )
** 20130630 161202 fire behavior EP
This is the AIR STUDY video shot just 3 minutes before the
other one that definitely captures the following…
1) ASM2 asking ground to verify GM status and if Marsh is with them.
2) Ground command asking “Granite Mountain: What’s your status?”
3) Marsh reporting “They (GM) are taking escape route SOUTH”
4) Ground command asking (Marsh) “Are you with Granite right now?”
5) Marsh not really answering that question and saying he is
“Uh… just checkin’ it out to see where… ( controversial ending )”.
THIS video was shot just 3 minutes before that.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n63fomLyevo
I’ve been cleaning this one for a week and it’s a tough one… but
there ARE some background radio captures here just 3 minutes
before the others ones in the other (next) sequential video.
Granite Mountain ( entire crew ) was already hiking SOUTH at
this point ( as we are about to hear Marsh report in next video ).
At 1612, they were only 8 minutes from dropping into the box canyon.
The background conversation in this 1612 AIR STUDY video does NOT
appear to contain any actual conversations with Marsh or Steed like the
next sequential one does… but it does ‘set the stage’ for what is about
to come in that next video.
It DOES appear to capture ground command talking extensively with
ASM2 ( Bravo33 ) and ASM2 does seem to mention ‘Granite Mountain’
in here… just 2 minutes before he’s going to request that ground
command ‘Verify their status’…
VIDEO starts at 1612 ( 4:12 PM ).
Background conversation
+25.42 sec
Unknown: Bravo 33, Copy (?you) go ahead.
+25.81
Bravo33: Are you gonna be able to call it on… ???
( ASM2/Bravo33 continues talking here and had a lot to say but there )
( is simply too much foreground conversation and traffic going by )
( on the road to decipher much of it… until… )
+41.47
( Bravo33 is still speaking and seems to definitely say the words )
( ‘Granite Mountain’ at this point… and he continues talking… )
( but there really are too many cars going by to hear anything else. )
Just more possible proof that there were EXTENSIVE discussions
going on about Granite Mountain and their ‘status’ in the critical
minutes leading up to their decision to drop into the fuel-filled box canyon.
ALL of these people speaking in the background in these AIR STUDY
videos need to be fully identified and talked to again by REAL investigators.
Correction above. In the title of the post above I mention 1613
but the timestamp on the AIR STUDY video is actually
1612 (+2 seconds).
What I meant in the title was…
There appears to be conversation about ‘Granite Mountain’
going on from +41 sec into the video and beyond which
would carry the possible GM conversations into the 1613
timeframe as well.
**
** THE SPLIT IN THE FIRELINE
Most of the ‘official’ reports about the actual fire behavior on the
afternoon of June 30, 2013 all agree that after the wind shifted… the
now south-moving fire SPLIT into two different ‘branches’ as it
swept south… and one of those fast-moving ‘splits’ is the one that killed
Granite Mountain.
Page 77 of the SAIR talks specifically about this ‘split’ in the fire and
the SAIT went to great lengths to even produce a ‘graphic’ that shows
this ‘split’ in the fireline as it headed south, entering the ‘bowls’.
As it turns out… the Blue Ridge Hotshots SAIT interview actually puts
a primary CAUSE to this ‘split’… and it wasn’t all natural ( according to them ).
NOTE: It’s still amazing how ‘disjointed’ those SAIT interview notes are with
Blue Ridge ( Frisby, Brown, Fueller, Ball ). In some places… it’s almost just like
‘random association’ and things are just being mentioned that happened that
day with no regard to WHEN or the context of the events. Very bad ‘notes’
for any interviewer to record and very hard to follow with any real clarity.
That being said… there is the following information about this ‘split’ in the fire
where Blue Ridge interviewees say that the uncoordinated helitanker drops
THEY were witnessing is what caused ( or contributed greatly ) to this
eventual SPLIT in the fireline.
On page 8 of the YIN notes… Blue Ridge interviewees say this…
“The helos seemed to be free lancing dropping where they want, no one directing
them on tactics. This is when the helitanker splits the east flank ( of the fire ).”
Then ( later on ) on page 9 of the YIN notes, when they are discussing what
the fire started doing later in the afternoon and they needed to start evacuating,
they mention this ‘helitanker splitting the east flank’ event again…
“…Column starts to lay down, smoky, the split the helicopter did earlier,
is now evident.”
This second statement corresponds to the SAIR’s own actual diagram
on their own page 77 of the fire ‘splitting’ at this same time.
Here are the actual full two paragraphs from the YIN notes with Blue Ridge first
describing the ‘chaotic’ air attack they were wintessing early on in their
interview… followed by their second mention of this ‘splitting’ of the east flank
by the helitanker(s) and the eventual consequences later in the day…
Page 8 of the YIN notes ( Page 3 of 5 BR interview pages )…
The crew witness’ a near miss with the VLAT and the helitanker.
B4 B & T get back to the buggies, Travis feels that AA sounds overwhelmed, the
air show seemed troublesome. The helos seemed to be free lancing dropping
where they want, no one directing them on tactics. This is when the helitanker
splits the east flank. The tankers and helo’s aren’t picking up the black and
establishing good black, no solid anchor point. Hit and miss, spotty, unanchored
drops of water. Tankers were going indirect, this is when True says were going
defensive around 1200-1215. This is when the seasonals say, this is like the
Swiss cheese effect…Trew comes back with we need a piece of cheese.
This is just one big hole.
Page 9 of the YIN notes ( Page 4 of 5 BR interview pages )
Brian thought GM would come down the same rd him and Trew went on.
B & T went to the rd travis calls and says the winds are in my face the fire
is right there so they flip around. Crew heads to buggies drive out to the
hwy. B & T find engines still out there and they say leave now! Over by
GM, no fire activity. Column starts to lay down, smoky, the split the
helicopter did earlier, is now evident. Extreme fire behavior spot fire to
the NW of them. Winds are howling, embers falling, instant spot fires
10 x 10 in seconds, homes going up, fire leap frogging.
And that WTKTT is when you do not want to be in unburned fuel
erratic fire behavior at its worst. AND THE BIG DOG EATS…..
Mr. Powers… just that one (last) paragraph above was
included to show the second part of where Blue Ridge
claims the Helitanker ‘split’ the fire…
…but just look at that one paragraph and look at all
the other ‘discrepancies’ in there.
Very first sentence…
“Brian (Frsiby) thought GM would come down the same
rd him and Trew went on.”
Clear as a bell. Frisby just thought Marsh meant that
GM was coming back down the same road that he
and Brown went up on in the UTV for the first
face-to-face at noon.
There is NO ambiguity in that sentence.
There is NO ‘Frisby thought he meant a ranch to the north’
There is NO ‘Frisby wasn’t sure what road Marsh meant’.
Frisby WAS sure ( about what he thought he heard ).
He was SURE Marsh meant they were bookin’ it down
that same UTV trail back past the grader and back
towards them.
The SAIR just made up all that other stuff the reported
about Frisby thinking he meant ‘a ranch to the north’.
Then there is this ( in the same paragraph ).
“Over by GM, no fire activity.”
What the heck does that mean?
All I can think of is that the interviewer just made some
fast note about some Blue Ridge person saying there
being was fire over by the GM Crew Carriers at that point
(yet) so there was still time to go get them, or something.
Reading these SAIT interview notes ( especially the
Blue Ridge ones ) is like doing a jigsaw puzzle.
I wonder if Blue Ridge will EVER be allowed to talk
about this incident ever again. There are obviously
still a lot of things that went on that day that still need to
be straightened out and it’s also obvious ( even from
these disjointed interview notes ) that they are the ones
who can help do it.
Agree. Every time I read those interview notes, it just makes my head hurt. Thanks for trying to decipher them. That’s not an interview. It’s a “whatever.”
These guys are so important in relationship to what happened. Not just to Granite Mountain, but to a whole lot else.
First I have said before BR never thought that GM would do any thing but stay in the black and move back towards where there vehicles had been parked.
Second for at least some time there was no fire where GM was they were to the west and in the burn (BLACK) if they stayed there or moved on top and followed the ATV route back the way BR’s ATV had come for the meeting they could have walked black back and out. The real escape route and safety zone.
Third the SAIT again used there own scenario because BR did not fit. BR’s statements were not used but changed to fit.
This has to be the worst investigation in the history of WLF fatalities.
>> Mr. Powers wrote…
>>
>> This has to be the worst investigation
>> in the history of WLF fatalities.
Agreed.
I think the ongoing ‘conversation’ at this
point should be just as much about how
to prevent such a botched-up, obfuscated
INVESTIGATION like this from ever
happening again just as much as it
needs to still be about what REALLY
happened in Yarnell on June 30, 2013.
Bob,
“Third the SAIT again used there own scenario because BR did not fit. BR’s statements were not used but changed to fit.
This has to be the worst investigation in the history of WLF fatalities.”
I’ll say it once again. Contrary to the ‘traditional investigative process’ the SAIT will establish it’s own conclusion, then it will selectively find ‘facts’ to support their pre-established conclusion. They do this by means of selective interviews and ‘cherry picking’ evidence that fits; everything else is discounted. It has happened with every fatality SAIT since the Mann Gulch Fire.
Bob Powers: Gabbert banned you? Really? I think we need a reality check here. John Maclean writes books about people like you, he is not a person like you!John Maclean should be interviewing you and wanting to know what you think about the Yarnell Hill Fire. John Maclean is a very good author, but he is an observer and a writer…not a doer. The respect here needs to go to the right people…and that isn’t Gabbert as far as I am concerned.
Just as a point of information regarding this… it is NOT either
automatic or usual for Mr. Gabbert’s WordPress software
to ‘close comments’ on a post after a certain amount of time.
Everything to do with the recent Maclean ‘claims’ about Marsh
making it all the way to the ‘ranch’ BEFORE the burnover are
the only articles over there that have now been specifically
CLOSED TO COMMENTING.
All his other blogs posts ( sic: articles ) concerning the Yarnell
Fire, the SAIR and the ADOSH report… even the ones dating
back to September, October, November, December…
ALL of them remain fully ‘open’ for new comments.
It’s only the recent Maclean ones that are now CLOSED
for commenting to EVERYONE.
Your right and Maclean wrote the book on my dad and knows me personally but what ever. Bills banning me is some what funny.
Long story short its an Oak Grove and El Cariso personal thing.
Was Gabbert on El Cariso? If he was a hotshot, I guess I had better give him the benefit of the doubt and withdraw the “he sounds like a dick!”
Although he still sounds like a dick!
Again it is what it is
Bill was a Hot Shot…..
Video20130630 144508. Starting around 33 seconds….”they are at the bottom of the drainage” “affirmative”
Thoughts? Recognize either voice? Who is “they”?
calvin…
I don’t recognize whoever says ‘drainage’… but it’s the same
person ( named Bob? ) that speaks at +0:18 in response
to the question about “How they doin’ in Wickenberg?”
The time of 1445 ( 2:45 PM ) for the video doesn’t seem that it
would be in any way referring to GM ‘down in the drainage’,
though.
It sounds simply as if ‘Speaker 1’ was trying to locate someone
on the ground at that time and ‘Bob’ just lets him know they
are ‘at the bottom of the drainage’.
The final transmission… right at the end…
“Structure 3, Operations, on TAC1”
Sounds like Abel to me ( based on Caldwell video radio capture ).
Speaker 1 cound be Rory Collins?
Speaker 2 seems to be named ‘Bob’ since that’s what
the first speaker seems to call him in the first transmission.
Here is what I THINK I’m hearing…
VIDEO STARTS
+0:01
Unknown speaker (loudly in foreground): Yea
+0:02 through +0:16
Some faint background radio conversations along with
foreground sound of helicopter passing overhead.
+0:17
Speaker 1: Bob… how they doing on ???? in Wickenburg?
+0:18
Bob: Uh… ( can hear what he says but can’t understand it )
Speaker 1: Okay.
+0:26
And I’m on your (six?)… do not have any (ten?) in sight…
Oh… I have (????) now. Never mind.
+0:33
Bob: They’re at the bottom of the drainage.
Speaker 1: Affirmative
Bob: Copy
+0:34 ( Overlaps and starts out underneath the ‘Affirmative’ )
Unknown speaker: Structure Group 3, Operations, on TAC 1
END OF VIDEO
Elizabeth video 20130630 144756 around 1 minute 24 seconds has a call from Musser to Abel. This is the first audio I have heard with a sample of Musser’s voice
Below is the video that still hasn’t been released publicly by
anyone. H&M listed it as the ‘source’ for their own report that
OPS2 Paul Musser is ‘calling out’ specifically to DIVSA Marsh,
but even they still haven’t posted that where anyone can
listen to what they say they are hearing.
1. “DivA-Ops Musser”:
SAIT Investigation Record:AO5-20130630: AerialFirefightingStudyPhotosVideos F: PhotosAndVideos: Panebaker:Video:20130630_154232_fire_behavior_EP.MOV
There *might* be more to this than just hearing Musser
calling out to Marsh. There *might* be more conversation
there that some ‘really good ears’ can hear such as the actual
‘request for GM resources’.
Even if there is no such thing… notice the TIME on this video.
1542 ( 3:42 PM ) + 32 seconds
I wish someone would at least post an OFFSET time as to
WHERE in this this video the supposed call from Musser
to Marsh is.
In other words…
How LONG is this video with a starting timestamp of 1542…
and WHEN in the video is the ‘call’ from Musser to Marsh
supposedly heard?
2 minutes in? 5 minutes in? 10 minutes in?
It’s important.
We also know that both Mr. Dougherty and Elizabeth have
this specific AIR STUDY video… but they both seem reluctant
to even say if they have any plans to make it available or not.
Even if they don’t… I wish they could tell us WHEN ( at what
offset in the video ) this Musser-to-Marsh radio call actually
takes place.
This video would be very interesting, no doubt. To give them the benefit of the doubt, maybe they are withholding it until they have a clear idea what they think was said.
Since learning of this request, I have felt it was not the request, but the desperation that motivated Marsh to move. So would like to hear exactly what was said. The rest here is pure speculation on my part. The earlier it is means a couple of things. First it makes more sense as that would have given GM more time to get to Glen Ilah. Second that would have given Musser more time to enlist someone else’s help in persuading GM, since Marsh initially said no. Not saying that occurred, but the earlier the initial request, the more possible the latter.
IF Musser did enlist someone else to call GM, he may have been reluctant to tell that part of the story as it would have involved someone he had asked to get involved. The only reason I really think this scenario might be possible is I think Musser was desperate, and might have reached out to a third party because of that. I still really doubt it, but since people have been speculating about an order, this is one way it might have plausibly taken place.
mike… see just below in discussion with calvin
where it now seems to be clear that it was this
same Mr. OPS2 Paul Musser who was ALSO
trying to pull the bulldozer away from Blue Ridge
and have it sent ‘north’ because ‘fire was
threatening homes’… but MIGHT have done it
in the following timeframe…
1) The winds had already shifted to the south
so the ACTUAL threat up north was not near
as bad as down south.
2) He may have been making this SAME request
for the dozer to protect homes up NORTH at
the SAME TIME he was asking Eric Marsh
for ‘resources’ to protect homes in the SOUTH.
WTF?
I know some people keep pestering us here about
why we are chasing all the DETAILS… but here’s
a case where it REALLY MATTERS.
If Musser really was stepping outside his
responsibilities as the designated ‘Planning
OPS’ that day… and trying to ‘order up’ all
these resources over the radio as it all
started hitting the fan…
…then exactly WHEN he made what requests,
to WHO, for EXACTLY WHAT…
…and whether the actual designated ‘Field OPS’
Todd Abel was aware he was doing ANY of this…
…is all very important.
We KNOW it got very confusing that afternoon.
So confusing that 19 good men died.
HOW confusing and WHY it was so confusing
remains one of the most important things to
try to fully document.
Let me see if I can fill in the blank? Say…someone like WILLIS?
calvin… speaking of OPS2 Paul Musser…
I know you’ve put a lot of work into tracing the DOZER
and it’s movements that day.
Well… it appears that the YIN notes continue to be the
‘gift that keeps on giving’.
Did you ever see the quote in the YIN from the Blue Ridge
interview notes where they say exactly WHO it was that
was ‘ordering the dozer to come north’?
It was none other than Mr. OPS2 Paul Musser.
From page 8 of the YIN…
“OPS Musser requesting dozer up to the north it’s close to homes.”
Musser was officially designated PLANNING OPS that day,
and Abel was FIELD OPS. Between this request and the
direct callout to Marsh asking for ‘resources to protect Yarnell’,
it seems like he was acting a lot more like a FIELD OPS
that a PLANNING OPS that day.
I wonder who ELSE who was talking to that afternoon and
requesting/directing that resources be ‘relocated’… and I
wonder if Abel was really fully aware of all these ‘requests’
that Musser seemed to be making on his own that day.
Actually… here’s the full paragraph from page 8 of YIN
Interview with Blue Ridge ( Frisby, Brown, Fueller, Ball )
Tied in with cortis for the 1st time, at this time he didn’t want to evacuate Yarnell, the trigger pt was the ridge. They needed 4 ppl to move the buggies @ 1530, they briefed the crew there 1st escape route was to the hwy and out, 2nd escape route was back to the junction burn out the grass. Meets Trew starts dropping people off with minimal prep. ½ chain in at that time call f/ ops Musser requesting dozer up to the north it’s close to homes. Trew leaves with the ranger to scout north. Brian tries to contact GM several times, GM direct 3 or 4x Brian passed on to Jesse there plan of Gm securing there piece to the 2 track. Jesse says we have about another hr before we are tied into the 2 track. Eric copy’s and says yes that’s a good plan, head back up here let’s do a face-to-face. B says ok.
The Dozer/ Ball
The Ball photos show the dozer moving south around 1530. There had been two weather forecasts calling for winds FROM the North and Musser was wanting to move the Dozer North?
Well, I would like to know if the dozer was actually moved north? If not, where was it positioned that it wasn’t burned? Why was Eric Tarr searching for the Dozer operator and (up to 22 people) when he found GM?
That dozer was also the KEY to everything that
Blue Ridge was doing trying to prep that line
from Cutover Trail to the Shrine Youth Camp area.
If it got ‘yanked’ away from them too soon… then
that might have had everything to do with them
having to tell Cordes ( when he asked ) that
‘burning off that road’ was ‘no longer an option’.
I guess I’m still trying to fathom why… at that
late point in the day… there was still only
ONE bulldozer available and we hear fire
command ‘fighting’ over it. ( North versus south
work location ).
That’s just nuts.
And why would Musseer call BR to request the dozer up north? It is not like they could put it on their UTV trailer and tow it with their BR Supt truck
Yep. I’m with you.
Where was that darn dozer trailer?
The guy who was running it in the
morning wasn’t ‘carded’ which is
why Ball had to step in.
If they DID move it north… did Ball
go with it because he was ‘carded’,
or did the ‘uncarded’ guy just go
north with it and no one up there
cared if he was ‘carded’ or not?
Very confusing… but still very
important to know.
My assumption is that Ball was NOT the dozer operator, but was the Dozer Boss. Just as you would not send an engine into a firefight without an Engine Boss (supervisor), you would not send a dozer to work without a qualified supervisor (Dozer Boss). When the dozer moved north, Ball would not have to move with it. The dozer would only need a supervisor in the north when actually beginning to work there.
If Ball was assigned Dozer Boss he would stay with the dozer until relieved. Dozer Boss can handle 1 to 3 Dozers. But this fire seems to have its own what ever moments.
If Ball was pulled off the crew so they could get some dozer work done before the ‘actual’ boss arrived, they may have pulled the dozer off the line later, awaiting the other boss, and sent Ball back to his crew. Lots of people know, but none are actually specifying what happened.
TTWARE… yes… that’s
the way I’ve understood
the whole situation that
day myself. The rules
just required Ball to
become HEQB… but
the guy who owned
the dozer was still
the one running it.
So what does the
phrase ‘carded’
really mean?
Does that mean if
you have a ‘card’…
you can run the
dozer AND be your
own HEQB at the
same time?
I think you have to have a boss AND an operator, but others may correct me on this
Calvin,
I’m not understanding your saying the dozer was headed south at 1530. The cutover is essentially west to east, and at 1530 the dozer is headed, essentially, east. What am I missing here?
There is a cut-over between Sesame St. and Shrine Rd. that sort of runs N & S.
OK. I read it totally as going north-east from Sesame Street to Shrine Road. At about a 60 degree angle. At least on my version of Google Earth. So that would mean, in the two photos Ball took on the cutover, the dozer is headed NE.
What am I missing? What you keep saying has been confusing me all along.
Marti… you are right.
That ‘cutover’ trail that connected
the Sesame Area to the Shrine
road is more of an ‘angle’ running
south-southwest to north-northeast
rather than ‘due east-west’.
I have to confess myself, tho, that
at some point way back in this
ongoing discussion I even resorted
to just saying it runs ‘east-west’
just to save all the typing.
Same for Shrine road.
It does NOT actually run
due east-west on the compass
but for the sake of discussions
I think we have all just accepted
a general ‘east-west’ description
for Shrine road as well. It
actually does run almost due
east-west when it meets Highway
89 so just for the sake of talking
about it (generally) its been
referred to as an ‘east-west’ road.
I’m just an OCD map-freak. I spent three years drawing topos, and about 30 finding my way around with them.
Reply to Bob Powers post on January 28, 2014 at 7:12 pm
>> Mr. Powers wrote…
>>
>> WTKTT… Maybe you can if you want go back over t WFTD and answer
>> Holly’s question about the GPS, Brown and the 1529 to 1550 that Frisby
>> went to get McDonough. My answer did not post….
>> Or tell Holly all the info we/you have laid out over here on that
>> subject. Thanks
Mr. Powers… thanks for your multiple replies above that helped me
locate that exact conversation going on over at Wildfire Today.
I had some time to go do what you asked…
…but as of yesterday… NO ONE is allowed to make any more comments
over at Wildfire today on ANY of those ‘Maclean’ related BLOG posts.
Mr. Gabbert has set all those articles to COMMENTS CLOSED.
Says so at the bottom of each page now.
NO ONE was EVER allowed to make even one single comment on
Mr. Maclean’s recent ‘retraction’ of things that were previously published…
but even the other two articles where SOME discussion was allowed are
now set to COMMENTS CLOSED.
End of discussion… as far as he ( Gabbert ) is concerned.
Yes I saw that this morning. I did answer here if Holly reads it.
Thanks for trying.
FYI:
1. I also have said many times (as Mike says) that nothing will change Eric Marsh’s or Jesse Steed’s responsibility for the safety of their crew, but additional information may add to our understanding of the casual factors.
2. The term “Informants” has a negative ring to it. The official federal term for some time now has been “Sources of Information”, which does sound better…so, “No SOI’s…no cases!”
3. Sitta: I really understand and appreciate your need for anonymity, but based on your comments, I am really curious what your position is in the fire organization and which agency you work for? You really seem to be squared away. I like to think you work for the USFS.
4. I also agree with WTKTT, no detail is irrelevant and it is probably now or never, this story will not get better with age.
5. Marti: I understand the enormous drain your work on our behalf is causing in your “other” life, but I am not aware of anyone who thinks what you are doing isn’t important, and I for one really appreciate your efforts.
6. WTKTT: You really are some kind of technical genius.
I believe Mr. Donut has been given enough time to come forward with everything he knows. I have also found, based on my experience, that people generally do not do the “right thing”, especially if they have something to lose until you compel them to do so, or you clearly demonstrate to them that it is in their best interest to do so.
Therefore, it is my humble opinion that everyone who has a Granite Mountain Hotshot Memorial Sticker on their vehicle in Prescott (which is a very large percentage of vehicle on the road) should make a point of asking Mr. Donut, “What do you know that you haven’t told us!” every time they see him.
In addition, I don’t think Mr. Donut should get any more free drinks, slaps on the back for wandering around the fire and managing to survive thanks only to Brian Frisbee, or parade’s until he comes clean.
I’m just sayin’.
I also agree with Mike that there is unlikely to be a “Perry Mason moment” in this quest unless someone like…oh I don’t know…like Mr. Donut comes forward with what he knows about what happened that day in the critical moments leading up to the disaster.
No informants…no cases.
RTS said Bob,
“And just what is a “Gary Moment”?”
Bob said “It Is What It Is.”
This may be egotistical on my part…but Gary as is me? And what does “It is What It Is” mean?
I decided to vent my feelings as you have shown you can but more eloquent than my humble self.
right on, Bill Gabbets or whatever his name is, sounds like a real dick. I know it’s his web site…but people are supposed to be able to express themselves in forums like this, that is how the truth comes out. Sometimes people only say the truth in emotional outbursts when they are not guarded, plus it sounds like he is filtering comments to shape the story, which is really, really, wrong.
Followup: In the Globe Type II Crew video ( link above ) shot in the morning
at the Yarnell Fire Station… the fella in the backseat who shoots a bird at
the camera also has a beard… be he also definitely has a mustache.
The fella with the ( long ) beard we see standing in the middle of the road
in the Helmet-Cam video definitely does NOT have a mustache.
>> WantsToKnowTheTruth on January 31, 2014 at 3:33 pm said:
>>
>> We do NOT yet know if the Helmet-Cam video crew WAS the same “Globe
>> Type 2 Crew” that shot the other four videos sitting in 4490red’s Youtube
>> account.
>>
>> They MIGHT be… but I don’t think those ‘dots’ have all been fully connected
>> yet with either positive IDs on vehicles or people seen in the videos.
>> Marti Reed on January 31, 2014 at 5:19 pm said:
>>
>> It’s the same crew. Watch this one and then explain to me why it isn’t.
>>
>> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgh_O9vcCyQ
>>
>> That’s the same radio guy riding shotgun in both.
>> The guy with the helmet cam asks him if he should shoot some more video.
>>
>> I think that’s the crew sup. And I think that’s why the last moments video
>> was kept off of YouTube and sent to the SAIT.
>> That guy knew EXACTLY what they had.
Marti…
If you are talking about the guy with the beard in the passenger side of
the vehicle who says ‘STUUUPID’ as he fools with the camera and tries to
shoot video in the Globe Type II Crew video shot in the morning at the
Yarnell Hill Fire Station…
…and the guy with the beard seen later in the Helmet-Cam video standing
in the road and holding the portable radio…
…they are definitely NOT the same individual.
Both have beards… but totally different.
Guy in the video shot in the morning has a neat, close-crop chin beard
and (apparently) a mustache.
Guy in the Helemet-cam video has a longer beard and definitely NO mustache.
I still think they MIGHT be the same ‘crew’ but those two individuals are definitely
not the same person.
Regardless of whether they turn out to be same ‘crew’ or not… I am totally with
you on your wondering “What were they doing there in the first place?”.
Whoever that ‘Helmet Cam’ video crew turns out to be ( There are USF AZ logos
and ‘shields’ on the truck doors )… the question(s) still stand.
WHO sent them there?
WHERE were they right before arriving there?
WHAT were they doing there (other than just standing around shooting video)?
WHERE did they really go after the video ends?
We KNOW that BR Captain Brown stopped right there in St. Joseph Shrine
parking lot to talk to them ( for almost 2 minutes ) on his way out of the Shrine
area and Brown only left them and continued on south to the Ranch House
Restaurant just 60 seconds before Steed’s first MAYDAY call…
…but did Captain Brown stop and ask THEM the same question(s) and/or
give them a warning like…
“WHAT are you doing here? Get OUT of here NOW!”
Thanks for eagle-eye-ing this better than I did! There are a number of things about these visual elements that still mystify me. I guess this is still one of them!
As long as I’m sitting here trying to make myself go back to sleep, I may as well describe two other visual mysteries that continue to baffle me.
1. Papich, for most of the “evacuation” from the Youth Camp, appears to be driving one of the BR Buggies. But his last two photos (3957/3958) from his iphone, at about 4:35 PM are taken from the same hill over the same little green house where he photographed the BR Sup truck and a Buggy that morning while riding shot-gun on the UTV. I cannot, for the life of me, figure out how he got there to do that, and what vehicle got him out there to do that. It couldn’t have just “happened.”
2. Ball’s last collection of iphone photos (about 15 of them) are from a period of time starting about 4:47 PM (I’m typing this on my iPad while screen-recording a class, so I can’t access the photos in Lightroom on my computer). He’s driving around in some vehicle, but I have no idea what. He starts out in that same Manzanita area that Papich shoots his two pictures in, and then wanders around in the larger area. There is fire and smoke all around him.
It would have taken me hours to try to identify where all he was in Google Earth Streetview, so I didn’t. I think he’s trying to find a way to somehow “get in” to where he thinks GM deployed. It’s really haunting to travel with him through these photos.
I wonder, but don’t know if he has Papich with him. I wonder, but don’t know, if he’s in the BR Utility truck, with or without the trailer carrying/not carrying the UTV.
The photos by both Papich and Ball say a lot. Papich’s are a testament to the difference between that morning and that tragedy. He’s being determined to document that. Ball’s are documenting the attempt to, and difficulty of, find access to what he knows is happening.
I have no idea how either of them are doing this. But it’s obvious they both consider it extremely important to do it.
One of my concerns that every body keeps stating.
ESCAPE ROUT– A predetermined route scouted marked and opened for quick access.
What Granit Mountain was doing was cutting trail as they went.
It was not an escape route……..
A mile and a half walk thru the brush in a volatile situation is not an escape route to a safety zone.
At the time they took that route they were not escaping from any thing.
Granit mountain called it an escape route why I have no idea.
That statement confuses the whole investigation.
My Gary Moment…..
Bob,
And just what is a “Gary Moment”?
It Is What It Is.
Some strange things still going on over at Wildfire Today regarding
comments and whatnot ( NO ONE is allowed to even make a comment
on Maclean’s retraction of his original “Marsh was at the ranch” findings, etc. )
so in case the following comment disappears… I don’t feel like typing it
all over again so I am ‘copying’ it over to here.
SR asked me over at Wildfire today to post a description of EXACTLY
what I did to produce my own ‘enhanced’ audio clips.
It’s no secret… and I was glad to oblige.
So in case this entire original comment suddenly evaporates over at Gabbert’s
Wildfire Today site… here it the full 411 I typed up over there, on request.
SR’s response to my posting is also included, in case that disappears too.
>> On WildFire Today
>> WantsToKnowTheTruth on January 26, 2014 at 4:11 am said:
>>
>> Reply to SR post on January 24, 2014 at 6:25 pm
>>
>> SR said…
>> Perhaps WTTKT could state exactly what he did to his
>> (enhanced audio ) version, and with what, so that H&J can use
>> that as a point of comparison/ control?
Sure. Be glad to.
I downloaded the original (full) AIR STUDY video in question
from Elizabeth’s public YouTube link.
I removed the raw audio track from it with a free public domain
program called AoA Audio Extractor. It was saved as a high
fidelity WAV format audio file.
I have access to any number of professional audio editing
programs… but for something like this I have discovered that
one of the best programs out there is totally FREE and in
the PUBLIC DOMAIN.
It is called ‘Audacity’ and I used version 2.5.
Anyone can use this FREE software and do exactly what I did.
You can download ‘Audacity’ 2.5 for Windows, Mac or *Nix here…
http://audacity.sourceforge.net/download/
I loaded the high-fidelity WAV audio file extracted from the
video into Audacity.
Now to work…
The most obvious ‘noise problems’ with that video/audio are…
1) The wind.
2) The cars going by.
3) General background noise.
So the first thing to do is ‘remove’ all three of those things.
Audacity makes it really easy to do that. It has VERY
sophisticated ‘Noise removal’ algorithms built in under
the ‘Effects’ menu. All you do is ‘isolate’ a section of noise
that you want to remove from the track… and then pick
a ‘Remove Noise’ option and apply your ‘noise sample’
to the entire track.
So first I isolated just some pure wind. Removed that.
Then I isolated some pure ‘car noise’. Removed that.
Then I isolated just some ‘background noise’. Removed that.
It was already sounding a lot better… but now we run into
the other problems in this audio track.
The conversation we want is the BACKGROUND radio
traffic being captured… and NOT the two men talking in
the foreground.
Here again… Audacity makes this easy.
You just treat the two men’s voices in the foreground as
‘noise’ and remove that just like the other three things.
So I isolated a section where only man 1 was talking, treated
it as ‘noise’… and did a removal pass on HIS voice.
Ditto for man 2. Just isolate ONLY his voice. Remove it.
NOTE: None of the things being described or targeted for
‘removal’ actually gets completely, totally removed… but
its pretty close if you set the sensitivity high on removal.
So now I’m left with an audio track that has had a lot of
things ‘removed’ and the background audio is already
clearer.
Now for the worst problem.
The background audio itself is still very ‘faint’ and hard to hear.
That’s where a number of other ‘Effects’ tools in Audacity
come into play.
First you run a number of ‘Amplify’ passes, but don’t increase
by more than 10db per pass or you start to bust the waveform.
After each ‘Amplify’ pass Audacity lets you then run a ‘hard
limit’ pass and a ‘Normalization’ pass to pull the higher decibel
peaks back into ‘normal’ range before amplifying again.
If you don’t do that… each amplification pass starts turning
the foreground audio into ‘white noise’… which you don’t want.
So you repeat this ‘Amplify’, ‘Hard Limit’ and ‘Normalization’
sequence say… 4 or 5 times… and now the background audio
is boosted a total of about 50db and coming out louder than
before… but it was so faint to start with it’s STILL hard to hear.
The final step was to just then simply really hard-boost the GAIN
for both channels almost to the point where it’s red-lining.
I believe I brought the gain up to 27db. (on both the left and
the right channels equally ).
This isn’t something you would normally ever want to do
because things start to distort… but in this case it’s the
only way to really bring that background audio all the way
to the forerground.
The by-product of such a drastic boost in the GAIN is that
the entire audio clip becomes VERY, VERY LOUD.
If you listen at full volume it will be nothing but distortion… but
with a GAIN of +27db, and a volume level of, say, half… you
get the best of both worlds. The audio is much clearer but
you don’t run the risk of hurting your ears or your equipment.
By the way… this ‘GAIN boost’ trick is exactly what they use
to annoy the crap out of you when you are watching television
and the commercials suddenly seem so LOUD. They aren’t,
really ( the waveform is actually about the same as the primary
audio signal reaching your TV ) but the big GAIN boost trick just
makes you sit up and pay attention… which is all they
(the advertisers) want, anyway.
So that’s pretty much it.
I should also mention that the original raw audio was recorded
with what appears to be a stereoscopic microphone that had
the balance somewhat off-center. It might have been set that
way… or the microphone might actually have been a little
broken. Regardless… that means that one of the audio channels
was originally louder ( with more waveform ) than the other.
In the H & M clip… they seem to have chosen to include just
the left channel… and just totally wiped out the right channel.
They thought that would be the equivalent of actually doing
‘noise removal’, or something.
Well… that works sometimes… but what they lost from that
conversion was a lot of the ‘fidelity’ since the original background
radio captures were recorded on BOTH channels, not just one.
Maybe they ‘merged’ the two STEREO channels into just
a mono channel and worked on that single channel and that’s
why the right channel in their clip is simply ‘dead’… Dunno.
Regardless…
I made no attempt to ‘go mono’ or just keep one channel or
the other. All ‘noise filtering’, ‘amplification’, ‘hard limiting’
and ‘normalization’ passes were done on the full original
STEREO audio track… as were the GAIN boosts… and the
final result clip is also full STEREO, unlike the clip that
H & M were listening to.
>> SR also said…
>> I still find it hard to believe that the “escape route” chosen
>> was being referred to as “vertical cut,”
It wasn’t. What he ( Eric Marsh ) actually says there is…
+0:54.09 to +1:03.81
Eric Marsh: Well the guys… uh… Granite… is makin’ their
way out the exact escape route from this mornin’… an’ it
heads… ah… (pause) SOUTH. ( slight pause )
mid-slope, cuttin’ over.
Actually… here is what I believe is the FULL transcript of that
video… including the part at the very beginning which is
what causes someone to actually call Granite Mountain
to ask them what their status was ( at 4:16 ).
What is actually captured at the start of this video is someone
confirming with ASM2 that he ( ASM2 / Bravo 33 ) can
actually SEE Granite Mountain ‘behind those hills’ and ‘on the
corner of the fire’… but ASM2 is concerned that they keep
saying they are ‘comfortable’ where he can see them.
ASM2 says that is ‘not credible’ ( based on the fire behavior
he is seeing at 4:16 ) and he INSISTS that someone
on the ground call Granite Mountain and at least insure that
DIVS A (Marsh) is ‘with them’. ASM2 was being forced to play
double duty as Air Attack at this point since Rory Collins
abruptly left the area a few minutes earlier… and ASM2 needs
to KNOW if ‘DIVS A’ ( or simply ‘Alpha’, as ASM2 says ) is
actually with GM where he can see them down there at 4:16 PM.
HUGE CAVEAT: This is MY best interpretation of the background
audio for that entire video. Your mileage may vary, of course, but
I would put money on the following translation for the background
captured radio traffic in this ENTIRE AIR STUDY video…
AIR STUDY VIDEO STARTS
+0:08.23
(Unknown): ASM2, Copy that… behind the hills is where you
place Granite Mountain?
+12.726
(ASM2): They’re on the corner just repeatedly saying that they’re
comfortable and that’s not credible. ASK him whether Alpha can
be placed WITH them.
NOTE: A few seconds later… Someone OTHER than who
ASM2 was just talking to ( someone with what sounds like a
Cajun accent? ) does exactly what ASM2 just TOLD them to do.
He calls Granite Mountain directly and asks them to report their STATUS. If the time stamp on the AIR STUDY video can be
trusted then it is now about 4:17 PM, just before the SAIR says
they are about to leave the two-track road and drop into the box
canyon at approximately 4:20 PM.
+0:40.52
(Unknown): Granite Mountain ( Five? )…
What’s your status right now?
NOTE: A pretty heavy accent on this speaker. Sounds like
Louisiana Cajun? What he says almost sounds like…
“Granite Montun… wuz yo status rat now?
ALSO NOTE: Even though the caller asked for ‘Granite
Mountain’ specifically, and not ‘DIVS A’… Eric Marsh responds
immediately on behalf of Granite Mountain before Jesse Steed
even has a chance to say anything. Jesse only ‘chimes’ in with
his own ‘status’ report about “we’re pushin’ our way down into
the structures” when Marsh is done speaking.
+0:54.09 to +1:03.81
Eric Marsh: Well the guys… uh… Granite… is makin’ their
way out the exact escape route from this mornin’… an’ it
heads… ah… (pause) SOUTH. ( slight pause )
mid-slope, cuttin’ over.
+1:07.18
( Another voice immediately adds to what Marsh said but it is )
( NOT Marsh this time. It sounds like Jesse Steed )
Jesse Steed: We’ll be pushin’ our way down into the structures.
+1:10.16 ( Another voice. Very quickly )
Copy that.
+1:21.17
( Unknown): Ten four. You with Granite Mountain right now?
+1:24.68
(Eric Marsh?): Uh… just checkin’ it out to see where we’re gonna
jump out at.
There appear to be some other background conversations
in this video before we hear the 11 ( ELEVEN ) shutter
clicks of the fellas in the foreground actually shooting photos
of the VLAT drop… but there is also HEAVY road traffic
at this point that will take a lot more work to filter out.
AIR STUDY VIDEO ENDS
>> On Wildfire Today… SR responded.
>>
>> Response from SR on January 27, 2014 at 8:06 am
WTKTT,
Thanks very much for taking the time for that comprehensive reply. I assume Holly and John are now in a position to circle back to the audio people they used and compare notes. At the end of the day perhaps the most important point, to me, is that there was communication during that time period. If Marsh were to be saying the “escape route” was “vertical cut,” to me that would imply a different set of training and judgment issues than simply “cuttin’ over” implies, but those are sort of micro points.
What I would ask of Holly and John, in addition to circling back to their tech people, is actually a field-note question. I know they have walked the actual area of the YHF with Sonny and Tex among others. Have they, also, actually hiked down a roughly comparable bowl choked with the same general mix of chaparral?
Page 20 of this document…
( See original Widlfire today comment for SR’s embedded document link )
…contains one of the better composites of the bowl pre-fire.
I am sure Sonny and Joy and other locals could also suggest nearby areas with similar dense brush and topography. And it is also likely that Holly and John have already done this.
I think that experience is relevant to interpreting the audio. It may at the end of the day be clear as a technical matter what is being said. It may also stay murky and require some judgment. If Holly and John have already walked down a similar brush-choked bowl and do think in their judgment that Marsh believing using sawyers to create a “cut vertical” escape route, through that bowl, was something Marsh was likely to do and say, then so be it. As to the effectiveness of doing this, I’d go so far as to say it might make sense to have a couple teams do test “vertical escape route clearings” through similar chaparral. We know from GM’s own extremely slow progress in that bowl that whatever cutting they may have done didn’t speed their progress much, if any. A slow walking pace is around 2 mph. GM moved at roughly a half-mile per hour. I believe that a couple fit and efficient teams trying to clear similar brush would likewise have a bear of a time. This could simply mean that GM made a spur-of-the-moment choice of tactic that could have worked elsewhere, but was the wrong choice that day. It could also imply, if doubt does remain over what was actually said, that it would be more likely for Marsh to have said “cuttin’ over,” as WTKTT suggests.
Reply to Marti Reed post on January 30, 2014 at 8:13 pm
>> Marti said…
>>
>> Thank you BUNCHES for doing ( the BR GPS detail ).
>>
>> Especially the segment from the Youth Camp to the
>> Ranch House Restaurant, which I spent quite a few
>> hours today working on vis a vis the photographs.
Marti…
I left the detailed LAT, LONG, DISTANCE, RATE information for the
1610 to 1643 timeframe out of the BR tracking stuff I posted last night just
because that post was focused on Captain Trueheart Brown’s ‘scouting trip’.
I see what you are doing with the photos, however, and so here’s the detail on
the REST of that time sequence from when they actually retrieved the GM
Crew Carriers, went back to the Shrine to prepare to evacuate, and then the
actual evacuation down to the Ranch House Restaurant.
It’s actually pretty easy to tell from the MPH values when Brown ( with the BR
GPS unit ) was probably just ‘walking’ around on foot over at the BR staging
area at the Youth Camp and when he was probably ‘bombing around’ in the
BR UTV itself like the trip to get the GM Carriers and the final ‘evacuation’ from
Youth Camp to Ranch House Restaurant.
I think it’s pretty easy to see from this detail that the BR UTV was never
‘loaded up’ in this timeframe. It simply remained ‘on the loose’ and Brown
drove it all the way down to the Ranch House Restaurant during the evac
either ahead of, or behind, the actual BR vehicle ‘convoy’.
The final leg into the parking lot of the Ranch House Restaurant is the fastest
I’ve seen the GPS tracking unit moving at any time which is 28.05 MPH.
I hope some of this helps you with what you are doing.
Same format as previous post.
First the ‘more than you wanted to know’ section that has each LAT,LONG
coordinate for each GPS update but only short text descriptions.
Second part just has the distance and the rate value(s) with longer text.
** FULL BR MOVEMENT DATA WITH LAT/LONG, DISTANCE, RATE,
** SHORT DESCRIPTIONS FOR TIMEFRAME 1610 – 1643
Here are the GPS tracking updates with full Latitude and Longitude
coordinates for each ‘move’ as well as ‘Distance traveled’ ( in feet )
and the corresponding travel rate between ‘moves’ as ‘Miles Per Hour’.
This section has minimal ‘Descriptions’ of movements and is just
the raw data. See below for the same time sequence without the
actual Latitude/Longitude information and longer ‘Descriptions’.
LEGEND:
YC = Youth Camp
SA = Sesame Area, where GM Crew Vehicles were parked
CR = Cutover Trail, the EAST-WEST trail that connected SA to Shrine Rd.
BR = Blue Ridge ( Hotshots )
GM = Granite Mountain ( Hotshots )
SJS = St. Joseph Shrine (on Shrine Road). Where Helmet-cam video was shot.
COLUMNS:
Time – Latitude, Longitude – Distance traveled – Rate – Description
1610 – 34.227183, -112.752758 – 1360.570 ft – 15.46 mph – EAST to SJS parklot
1611 – 34.227183, -112.752758 – 0000.000 ft – 00.00 mph – Stationary
1612 – 34.228387, -112.754123 – 0607.333 ft – 06.90 mph – WEST on Shrine Rd
1613 – 34.230605, -112.756720 – 1182.110 ft – 13.43 mph – To YC BR vehicles
1614 – 34.229682, -112.757910 – 0498.075 ft – 05.66 mph – SOUTH in YC
1615 – 34.230392, -112.759573 – 0550.779 ft – 06.26 mph – WEST in YC
NOTE: START of quick trip WEST to get the GM Crew Carriers.
1616 – 34.227784, -112.757031 – 1573.510 ft – 17.88 mph – Start of trip
1617 – 34.227048, -112.759756 – 1087.330 ft – 12.36 mph – WEST on CT to GM
1618 – 34.226498, -112.762395 – 0932.676 ft – 10.60 mph – WEST on CT to GM
1619 – 34.227021, -112.766011 – 1391.570 ft – 15.81 mph – NORTH to GM
1620 – 34.228440, -112.770420 – 1579.230 ft – 17.95 mph – ARRIVAL at GM park
1621 – 34.227119, -112.767019 – 1241.040 ft – 14.10 mph – SOUTH in SA
1622 – 34.226604, -112.761934 – 1864.230 ft – 21.18 mph – SOUTH in SA
1623 – 34.227349, -112.758651 – 1153.780 ft – 13.11 mph – EAST on CT
1624 – 34.229097, -112.756548 – 1280.420 ft – 14.55 mph – CT and Shrine Rd.
1625 – 34.229629, -112.754971 – 1320.340 ft – 15.00 mph – Back at BR trucks
NOTE: END of quick trip WEST to get the GM Crew Carriers.
ALSO NOTE: During the following time the GPS tracker stays at the
Youth Camp (YC) and there are only small movements in/around the area
where the BR Crew Carriers are parked. The tracker remain right around
the staging area inside the Youth Camp compound during this time…
1626 – 34.229984, -112.755239 – 0130.596 ft – 01.48 mph – At BR trucks in YC
1627 – 34.230126, -112.755518 – 0102.908 ft – 01.17 mph – At BR trucks in YC
1628 – 34.230126, -112.755518 – 0000.000 ft – 00.00 mph – Stationary
1629 – 34.230232, -112.755486 – 0052.238 ft – 00.59 mph – At BR trucks in YC
1630 – 34.230436, -112.755765 – 0131.196 ft – 01.49 mph – At BR trucks in YC
1631 – 34.230206, -112.756130 – 0145.208 ft – 01.65 mph – At BR trucks in YC
1632 – 34.230206, -112.755346 – 0239.823 ft – 02.73 mph – At BR trucks in YC
1633 – 34.230108, -112.755175 – 0077.278 ft – 00.88 mph – At BR trucks in YC
1634 – 34.229851, -112.754949 – 0125.806 ft – 01.43 mph – At BR trucks in YC
NOTE: Blue Ridge evacuates the Youth Camp (YC) and Shrine area now
and BR convoy heads directly SOUTH to the Ranch House Restaurant.
They only stop for 2 minutes on the way out at the parking lot
of the St. Joseph Shrine to (apparently) speak to the firefighters
who are already there and who, only minutes later, are going to
be shooting the Helmet-Cam video that captures GM radio traffic.
According to this GPS tracking… The BR GPS unit ( Brown ) was
actually still there where the Helmet-Cam video was about to be
shot just 60 seconds before GM Captain Steed transmits his first
“We are in front of the flaming front” MAYDAY message at 1639.
1635 – 34.228414, -112.754134 – 644.378 ft – 7.32 mph – EAST out YC driveway
1636 – 34.227183, -112.752758 – 624.010 ft – 7.09 mph – At SJS parklot
1637 – 34.227183, -112.752758 – 000.000 ft – 0.00 mph – Stationary
1638 – 34.227183, -112.752758 – 000.000 ft – 0.00 mph – Stationary
1639 – 34.224803, -112.749746 – 1342.03 ft – 15.25 mph – EAST on Shrine Rd
1640 – 34.222603, -112.746935 – 1188.17 ft – 13.50 mph – Shrine Rd. and Hwy 89
1641 – 34.217985, -112.750025 – 1966.14 ft – 22.34 mph – SOUTH on Hwy 89
1642 – 34.213532, -112.755497 – 2468.58 ft – 28.05 mph – SOUTH on Hwy 89
1643 – 34.213279, -112.755239 – 167.099 ft – 01.90 mph – Arrive Ranch House
NOTE: 1643 is one of the estimated times of the burnover in the box canyon.
** SAME BR MOVEMENT DATA MINUS LAT/LONG AND LONGER
** TEXT DESCRIPTION(S) TIMEFRAME 1610 – 1643
Here is the exact same BR GPS tracking data as above for the same
1610 – 1643 timeframe, but this time the Latitude/Longitude values are
removed and longer text descriptions of the actual movements are added.
LEGEND:
YC = Youth Camp
SA = Sesame Area, where GM Crew Vehicles were parked
CR = Cutover Trail, the EAST-WEST trail that connected SA to Shrine Rd.
BR = Blue Ridge ( Hotshots )
GM = Granite Mountain ( Hotshots )
SJS = St. Joseph Shrine (on Shrine Road). Where Helmet-cam video was shot.
COLUMNS:
Time – Distance traveled (FEET) – Rate (MPH) – Description
1610 – 1360.570 – 15.46 – EAST to SJS parklot
1611 – 0000.000 – 00.00 – Stationary at SJS parklot
1612 – 0607.333 – 06.90 – Back WEST to where Shrine Rd pavement ends
1613 – 1182.110 – 13.43 – Back to Youth Camp BR vehicle staging area
1614 – 0498.075 – 05.66 – A little SOUTH in YC but still on the property
1615 – 0550.779 – 06.26 – A little WEST in YC but still on the property
NOTE: START of quick trip WEST to get the GM Crew Carriers.
1616 – 1573.510 – 17.88 – WEST on CT. Start of trip to fetch GM Carriers
1617 – 1087.330 – 12.36 – WEST on CT towards GM Crew Carrier parking
1618 – 0932.676 – 10.60 – WEST on CT towards GM Crew Carrier parking
1619 – 1391.570 – 15.81 – NORTH in SA towards GM Crew Carrier parking
1620 – 1579.230 – 17.95 – ARRIVAL at the GM Crew Carrier parking spot
1621 – 1241.040 – 14.10 – Immediately headed back SOUTH again through SA
1622 – 1864.230 – 21.18 – SOUTH in SA, then headed EAST on CT
1623 – 1153.780 – 13.11 – Still heading EAST on CT
1624 – 1280.420 – 14.55 – Arrival back where CT meets Shrine road
1625 – 1320.340 – 15.00 – Arrival back with BR vehicles at YC.
NOTE: END of quick trip WEST to get the GM Crew Carriers.
ALSO NOTE: During the following time the GPS tracker stays at the
Youth Camp (YC) and there are only small movements in/around the area
where the BR Crew Carriers are parked. The tracker remain right around
the staging area inside the Youth Camp compound during this time…
1626 – 0130.596 – 01.48 – Still at BR vehicle staging area at YC
1627 – 0102.908 – 01.17 – Still at BR vehicle staging area at YC
1628 – 0000.000 – 00.00 – Stationary
1629 – 0052.238 – 00.59 – Still at BR vehicle staging area at YC
1630 – 0131.196 – 01.49 – Still at BR vehicle staging area at YC
1631 – 0145.208 – 01.65 – Still at BR vehicle staging area at YC
1632 – 0239.823 – 02.73 – Still at BR vehicle staging area at YC
1633 – 0077.278 – 00.88 – Still at BR vehicle staging area at YC
1634 – 0125.806 – 01.43 – Still at BR vehicle staging area at YC
NOTE: Blue Ridge evacuates the Youth Camp (YC) and Shrine area now
and BR convoy heads directly SOUTH to the Ranch House Restaurant.
They only stop for 2 minutes on the way out at the parking lot
of the St. Joseph Shrine to (apparently) speak to the firefighters
who are already there and who, only minutes later, are going to
be shooting the Helmet-Cam video that captures GM radio traffic.
According to this GPS tracking… The BR GPS unit ( Brown ) was
actually still there where the Helmet-Cam video was about to be
shot just 60 seconds before GM Captain Steed transmits his first
“We are in front of the flaming front” MAYDAY message at 1639.
1635 – 0644.378 – 07.32 – EAST out the driveway of the Youth Camp (YC)
1636 – 0624.010 – 07.09 – At the St. Joseph Shrine (SJS) parking lot now
1637 – 0000.000 – 00.00 – Stationary at the SJS parking lot
1638 – 0000.000 – 00.00 – Stationary at the SJS parking lot
1639 – 1342.030 – 15.25 – EAST on Shrine Rd, almost to Highway 89
1640 – 1188.170 – 13.50 – At intersection of Shrine road and Highway 89
1641 – 1966.140 – 22.34 – SOUTH on Highway 89 to the Ranch House cafe
1642 – 2468.580 – 28.05 – SOUTH on Highway 89 to the Ranch House cafe
1643 – 0167.090 – 01.90 – Arrival at the Ranch House Restaurant (cafe)
NOTE: 1643 is one of the estimated times of the burnover in the box canyon.
Another thanks BUNCHES for this. It’s really helpful for me in trying to better identify what the Blue Ridge crew are seeing and capturing through and, thus, documenting through their camera lenses during this critical time.
Marti… I hear ya. The original latitude/longitude values
from Blue Ridge’s GPS tracker are NOT actually
available (yet). All we have to go on is that video.
So I had to create a transparent ‘overlay’ map out of
the background map in that video… lay it on top of
a clickable copy of Google maps with a lat/long plugin
that allowed me to ‘click’ on the blue dots in order to
get each lat/long value for each GPS waypoint.
Caveat: The might not match the actual original
Blue Ridge GPS tracker values but I can guarantee
accuracy within 20 feet or so for each waypoint.
That’s the best we’re going to do unless we can ever
see the ACTUAL data from the GPS unit and not
just a video made from that original data.
As I was doing all that ‘clicking and recording’ I could
visualize other activity going on all around Brown… so
I think I understand exactly what you are doing with
the photos.
QUESTION: It’s pretty clear now that the BR UTV was
NOT ‘loaded up’ onto any trailer when they evacuated
from the Youth Camp… but do you have a sense
whether Brown evacuated AHEAD of the full BR
vehicle Convoy… or just AFTER it?
I’ve looked at the BR ‘Convoy’ video itself again a
number of times and I don’t see any trace of a UTV
there at the rear of the convoy… so either Brown
did, in fact, precede the vehicle convoy… or he
hung around at the Youth Camp in the UTV long
enough to not appear anywhere ‘following it’ on
the way down to the Ranch House Restaurant.
I’m thinking Brown must have been at least 3
minutes BEHIND the rest of the Convoy… probably
because he stopped to talk to those Helmet-Cam
firefighters at the St. Joseph Shrine parking lot.
Brown was there with them ( The guys who were about
to shoot the Helmet-Cam video capturing GM MAYDAYs )
just 60 seconds before Steed came on the radio with
his first “We are in front of the flaming front” message.
If Brown had just stayed there ( in the UTV ) another
50 or 60 seconds… we would acutally be SEEING
him in that video.
So based on conditions seen in that Helmet-Cam
video, and the fact that Brown was there just 60
seconds before it was shot…
…I’m thinking that has to be proof that the full BR
Convoy went on AHEAD of him… and arrived at the
Restaurant about 3 minutes earlier than him at 1640.
In case you missed it where I posted it somewhere over the rainbow up above:
“Marti Reed
on January 31, 2014 at 12:47 pm said:
I think the reason for Trew’s little trip down Sesame to just north of that neighborhood wasn’t random.
I believe, via the photos I’ve mentioned several times, they parked the utility truck somewhere around here, with the trailer attached, got the UTV off it and someone (not Trew) rode it in with Papich riding shotgun and taking photos.
That would mean somebody had to go back and get it and drive it over to the Ranch House Cafe parking lot. I think that’s what the GPS is telling us is going on here.”
I want to make sure you see this. I think it’s really important for clarification.
Ok, now I’ll go back and read what you just wrote.
That certainly would explain some of the
GPS tracking that shows them down near
that residence at the very south end of
the Sesame Area and only about 100 yards
west of where the pavement of Lakewood
Drive in Glen Ilah ends ( as well as the
still photo taken at that location with the
white fence in it. ).
I have towed open trailers with small
pickups myself… in rural areas. It
would make sense they would decide
it to be safer ( and easier ) to offload the
UTV there at the last bit of hard-pack road
before getting into that possible ‘soft dirt’
up ahead in the Sesame Area.
It’s always a bad start to a work day when
you get your loaded trailer stuck in soft dirt.
Yes. I’ve been picking my way through the Blue Ridge Photos README.txt this afternoon. Some of it is not accurate, imho. But some of it offers details I wasn’t aware of.
When Papich is taking photos while driving out of the Youth Camp in the GM Buggy, Brown and the atv and somebody else riding shotgun in it, are still there. Apparently this is part of the whole “getting those engines out” deal. So yes, I think Brown is a ways behind the rest of the convoy.
And I think you’re right about the timing vis a vis his stopping at the Shrine just before they started hearing things and turned the helmet cam on. I’m guessing Brown and whoever was riding shotgun were hearing all that as they headed into town.
And it also looks like the buggies were are all parked by the time Trew got there.
Typo Alert. Papich is driving a BR Buggy, not a GM Buggy.
Sorry
The SAIT notes from the interview with
Blue Ridge Hotshots ( Frisby, Brown,
Fueller and Ball ) are pretty confusing
in this entire timeframe… but this IS
the following which matches what you
just said about them ‘hearing’ the GM
radio transmissions WHILE the convoy
was in-transit from Shrine Youth Camp
to the Ranch House Restaurant…
Page 9 of SAIT Yarnell Investigation Notes
Interview with Blue Ridge Hotshots
Tie in with the crew at the ranch house and hit main rd @ 1640 they make a turn, and hear yelling on Tac 1, a little further they hear yelling on Tac 5 AA and GM7 yelling multiple times. AA says unit yelling at AA on A/G stop yelling and stand by. Marsh cuts in and says were cut off there cutting a deployment site, trying to burn around, cutting a deployment site, there is panic in his voice. Todd gets on AA and says raise GM on A/G. Focused on that Trew tries to raise GM on crew. He hears a keyed mic. Trew gets a crew member and sits him in GM trucks and says listen for anything on the radio. 1 minute later he hears click click. Brendan was w/ BR. B-33 is on scene trying to make passes calling them. Trying to get GM and pin point their location. Fire behavior was extreme.
Couple of things about that…
1) I’ve listened hard to the Blue Ridge
Convoy video and there is no evidence
of them hearing the GM radio traffic
in the video itself. Not surprising. Video
was shot out the back of the BR
Crew Carrier and the radios were
probably only audible up in the CAB.
2) Their own notes here say that they
had only just made the turn off Shrine
Road onto Highway 89 ( what they
refer to as ‘main road’ in their notes ) at
1640. That would mean they ( the convoy )
didn’t get all the way down to the cafe’ until
about 1642. The Ranch House Restaurant
wasn’t that far south from Shrine road…
but you still had to go all the way through
downtown Yarnell, around that big curve,
and all the way down to Lakewood drive
in Glen Ilah to reach the cafe’.
Even so… 1642 is still 60 seconds before
the GPS tracker puts Brown arriving there
as well.
So a lot of this is ‘matching up’, fer sure.
Also… regarding them saying ‘Brendan
is with BR’ in their notes… still not quite
sure what that says about Brendan’s
actual location in this whole timeframe.
They only say ‘Brendan was with BR’
AFTER they had arrived at the cafe’… so
that COULD mean that Brendan never
really did make it all the way to the
Youth Camp and did not ‘convoy’ down
from there with them. Brendan MAY
have already been at the cafe’ in the
GM Supervisor truck waiting for them
all to arrive and was only ( technically )
‘with them’ again after the BR convoy
arrived at the cafe’ circa 1642.
The reason Brendan’s exact whereabouts
in this exact timeframe is still important
is because Brendan has said any number
of times that he “spoke to Marsh and Steed
and told them the vehicles were all safe
at the cafe’ (now)… and to call me if
they needed anything.”
Well… if that really is true… then we know
now that that moment when the GM
vehicles really were “safe at the cafe’ now”
( ALL of them, not just GM Supt truck )
didn’t take place until 1640-1643.
That would mean Brendan supposedly
had this ‘causal’ conversation with
Marsh and Steed WHILE they were
preparing the deployment site and
climbing into their shelters.
Not likely.
Sorry… bad single-word typo above.
I meant ‘casual’ and not ‘causal’.
Meant to say…
That would mean Brendan supposedly
had this CASUAL conversation with
Marsh and Steed WHILE they were
preparing the deployment site and
climbing into their shelters.
Not likely.
Something is up with the gatekeeping on this site all of a sudden.
Benign, formerly-approved-type comments are now being relegated to the “Your comment is awaiting moderation” vortex.
Something to remember is that Mr. Dougherty has his
WordPress settings at a level where just ONE hyperlink
or a link to a document will allow a comment to bypass
‘moderation’…
…but if there is MORE than just one external ‘link’ in any
particular comment… it will go to ‘moderation’.
Not sure if that’s what you’re seeing now… but something to
keep in mind nonetheless.
Mike,
Regarding the “turnover on these Crews.” GENERALLY, there is NOT high turnover on these Crews unless there are such things as internal issues. All rews have high turnover every 4-5 years or so (4-7 employees maybe) because of transfers, other jobs, marriage, personal reasons, and such.
I ALLEGE the high turnover on the GMHS very well MAY have had to do with the ‘bad decsions with good outcome’ attitude that SEEMED to be prevelent.
RTS… totally ‘ack’ all the GENERALLY, MAY and SEEM
caveats you could muster up above and I totally agree.
There MAY have been something more than just ‘coincidence’
involved in what SEEMS to have been a ‘high turnover rate’
just between the 2012 and 2013 season alone.
It might not have been anything that ever rose to either a
confrontational or even a documented level ( complaints,
emails, memos, whatever )… or even anything that rose
to a definable ‘feeling’ like “These people might get me
killed”… but there MAY have been a palpable and similar
“uncomfortable” feeling amongst previous employees after
serving even just a single season with this particular crew.
ONLY the people that did serve with this organization ( and are
still alive to talk about it ) could shed any final clarity on all that.
Was a SEEMING ‘high turnover rate’ just totally coincidence,
or was there really more to it than mere coincidence?
WTKTT,
Good job on the GPS and travel data above. Thanks. Regarding travel rates, 3 mph hiking is about average and 4 mph is hustling along, with gear. And the whole 40-60 pound fire pack thing is bogus. More media and PFD hype.
I talked with BRHS today regarding their UTV. They had only ONE UTV, a Polaris Ranger. So, all references to “the Ranger” are their UTV, NOT a Ford Ranger. They did NOT ever borrow another ATV or UTV, although Frisby and Trew traded off from time-to-time. Trew did occasionally go off on his own on scouting forays.
Regarding the ADOSH Report, a few folks I talked to since it was released said that there were as many as 80, yes 80, INACCURACIES in that report. Such as, the ICP was NEVER evacuated.
RTS… thanks ( ongoing thanks ).
Yes… the whole drill-down on the BR GPS thing actually
ended up a study in ‘relativity’.
At first glance… watching the BR Tracking video… it might
appear there are places where a LOT of ground is being
covered VERY quickly… which would indicate speeds
greater than 20 mph or so.
That’s what I THOUGHT I was seeing during that 21 minute
period when Trew did his scouting pass on the cutover road.
Not the case.
It’s all ‘relative’. The ‘Ranger’ is actually NEVER moving
near 20 mph at almost any time during the entire tracking video,
except near the end when Trew ( and others ) were frantically
searching for GM. THEN they were ‘hauling ass’, of course.
So the ‘moves’ being seen for Trew’s scouting trip were
( in reality ) not ever really reaching a ‘speed’ that someone
could not accomplish ‘on foot’. It only appeared that way.
WTKTT,
So when you say ‘relative’ are you saying that it’s AVERAGED or is it ‘real-time’?
When I say ‘relative’ above I meant the difference
between might seem apparent just LOOKING at
the BR Tracking video and the ACTUAL distances
and speeds involved. That’s all.
Just watching that ‘blue dot’ move around on a
TOPO map might APPEAR as if a lot of ground
is sometimes being covered very quickly during
the 60 second update periods.
As it turns out… the moves are all ‘relative’ to the
ACTUAL distances involved and the ACTUAL
speed being achieved.
Some of the moves and speeds are simply not
as far or as fast as one might ‘assume’ just
watching the blue dot jump around in the video.
All the distances and times I’ve posted are the
REAL DEAL. Distances are all actual ‘road
distances’ ( curves and all ) and not ‘as the
bird flies’.
RTS,
Thanks for clarifying things. Sorry I complicated things with phantom Ford Ranger!
I agree with your assessment of the fire pack. I doubt they ever realistically weigh more than 35 lbs (my guesstimate) on a typical assignment, and they go down significantly in weight as the water gets used up. The absolute minimum water we carry is one gallon, which is 8 lbs by itself. The only time I’ve carried 60 lbs is when I’ve worn a “piss pump” and bladder bag on top of my regular pack.
Elizabeth I agree with you on the “help out at” That’s what I was hearing but with my hearing not willing to bet the farm on it
If you are asking about the GPS time frame for BR.
What is the relevance?
Blue Ridge GPS is giving us a specific time frame for Frisby’s trip to the meeting and pickup of McDonough since we have very little time frame on Marsh it sets an estimated time he was at the meeting spot.
It is part of the investigation to turn over every rock for evidence since the SAIT did not and more evidence has surfaced.
I do not know what has been said that would distress family members please email me on specifics so I understand you.
WTKTT a lot of work on all those GPS times on BR that really zeroed in on the info we were discussing Thanks.
As far as Holly and Maclean, if they read here but wont give us any info on there findings and discuss it with us I have no hesitation to discuss there findings with out them, there adults in this discussion enough said.
Reply to Marti Reed post on January 30, 2014 at 12:11 am
>> Marti said…
>> I’ve spent the entire day trying to make sense of everything having to do
>> with Air Support, and at the end of it, nothing does. It’s really a complete
>> jumble.
>>
>> But, as I was reading the ADOSH Inspection Narrative I found this:
>>
>> “September 4, 2013 – ADOSH e-mails five ex-Granite Mountain Hotshots
>> requesting interviews.”
>>
>> Unfortunately, after that, there’s nothing indicating they got them.
Not sure what ever happened with the ADOSH requests… but have you seen
the ‘Privilege Log’ in Mr. Dougherty’s online Dropbox from the SAIT FOIA/FOIL
request?
That’s where they ( the Arizona Forestry Commission ) list documents that they
were invoking standard FOIA ‘protect privacy’ privilege on.
MOST of the MANY documents they invoked ‘privacy privilege’ on just say it was
because there was at least one email address or at least one phone number
somewhere in the document.
Rather than just redact those single items… they invoked ‘privacy privilege’ on
the ENTIRE document(s) whenever they could.
See this folder in the SAIT package…
Yarnell Hill Investigation Data Oct 10 2013 > Privilege Log
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/s12ue25v999j4lk/gwLh1_p43N/Privilege%20Log
TOTALLY not true, WTKTT. Yet again.
You realize that folks like Holly Neill and various family members of the deceased GM guys READ this website, right? Therefore, with all due respect, my view is that you (and others on this website) have the obligation to be FAR more careful than you have been about what you say and what you assert as a fact.
This is part of the reason why it HORRIFIED me (and annoyed me) that “mike” (whoever he is) lumped me in with you and others.
I wanted to let sleeping dogs lie, but oh well.
The conversation started by Marti about the forecast of the fire not reaching Yarnell for 1-2 hours and that letting GM think they had time was what set me off the other night. You had answered her, hence I used your name. I realize you might not had agreed with her. Nonetheless that should not have been the basis for GM to do something so reckless.
As to a larger point, I think we have a broad idea already of what happened that day. Some details might be filled in, but I do not think they will essentially change the story (this includes a possible order). I think the major lessons have already been learned, and sadly are the same ones from other disaster fires. I think fullsail might have been right, this is less about lessons learned and more about getting a scalp.
I can only speak for myself, Mike, but I’m NOT in this for a scalp (save my own, and my fellow crew members).
I want to come home at the end of the day, and I want to be fully aware of anything that threatens that. I can study weather (so did Scott Norris), I can get in great shape (like the entire GMIHC crew), have a very experienced crew boss (like Eric Marsh), and apparently that isn’t enough. So why were these guys in so much danger, when they appeared so strong?
How much could they control (e.g., adherence to safety rules and guidelines, choice of route, response to orders and requests), and how much was out of their control (e.g., bad commo, unrealistic expectations, a culture that promotes risk and heroism over safety — including when considering who gets promoted and rehired, a work/rest standard that guarantees deep fatigue at the end of an assignment).
I still have some *theories* about what happened, and they remain just that. Until someone eventually speaks up to fill in the gaps, we’re left trying to piece this puzzle together ourselves. I honestly don’t know which, if any, of my theories are true. Every explanation I’ve heard or thought of just seems too crazy to be real.
Sitta –
Thank you for your very thoughtful response.
I think active WFF are the ones least likely to be “scalp-hunting”, the lessons learned mean a lot more to you all. As much as your posts can reveal, I think you have the temperament and curiosity to be a fine leader.
We may never know what factors blinded Marsh and the crew to the danger that day. Those things may not have been verbalized on the radio, and may have died with them. But we know a lot of things they did NOT do, things that would have kept them safe. And those lessons can protect you as well. Unfortunately those are not new lessons, they are the lessons of a lot of fire tragedies. And we are always looking for “new” lessons in these disasters. But just because they are old lessons, do not reject them. You do not have to repeat the mistakes others have repeated.
Why the rest of the crew went along may be hard to know for sure as well. I do not know the dynamics of the GMHS crew. Many were young, and might have felt constrained, or did not know better. A couple of the squad bosses were new, they too might have been reluctant to speak up. Sometimes “groupthink” does just take over. Certainly one lesson should be safety is everyone’s business and people need to be able to speak up. I have had nurses go “Whoa” when I was doing something, and although I do not have a reputation as embracing the “team” concept of medicine, I know enough to stop and reassess what I am doing when that happens. I do not always change my actions, but I do reassess (and have changed course more than once).
I truly hope the lessons of this fire do resonate and help protect future crews. That is the best we can hope for from such a sad event.
Thank you, Sitta. I really appreciate you writing that.
Reply to Elizabeth on January 30, 2014 at 7:13 am
.>> Elizabeth…
>> TOTALLY not true, WTKTT. Yet again.
And ( Yet again I ask )… WHAT is not TOTALLY TRUE?
Are you saying the documents referenced above
are NOT what they seem to be… documents withheld
from release for the reasons stated?
There ARE cases where document can be withheld
from a FOIA/FOIL release… or be heavily redacted…
and ‘privacy’ is one of the exceptions that can be
claimed.
You know that.
If that’s NOT what they are… then what are all those
documents in that folder?
I’m serious.
As Mark Twain said…
“We are all ignorant… just about different things.”
If I am TOTALLY misunderstanding what those
‘Privilege’ documents are in that Dropbox… then please
TELL me ( and please enlighten the rest of us ) what
the heck they really are?
If you’re saying that you’re the only one who knows
what that stuff really is… then please SHARE.
>> Elizabeth also wrote…
>> You realize that folks like Holly Neill and various family
>> members of the deceased GM guys READ this
>> website, right?
Yes. Some of them have actually posted here and
thanked ALL of us for what we are (trying) to do.
>> Therefore, with all due respect, my view is that
>> you (and others on this website) have the obligation
>> to be FAR more careful than you have been about
>> what you say and what you assert as a fact.
I’m sorry… are you talking to people HERE… or people
over at Wildfire Today? I’m confused.
You don’t think publishing a theory ( before it even had
a chance to be fully vetted like we try to do here ) that
someone made it all the way to safety… and then ran
BACK to their death… or not realizing that if your theory
was in any way true it meant that ALL those men should
have had the same amount of time to make it to safety…
…might not have been a little disturbing to family members?
Have you seen the press release that basically
RETRACTS that ( unvetted ) theory now?
WTKTT – Entire documents were NOT withheld. Rather, a word or two (or phone number or two) here or there were redacted. Your suggestion that someone was somehow withholding full documents rather than just redacting words is not accurate.
P.S. Didja notice anything curious about the timing of Maclean’s most recent editorial?
Nope.
Something you’re trying to tell us?
Reply to Elizabeth post
on Jan 30, 2014 at 9:38 pm
See reply to Marti just below.
I see what you are saying… but I still can’t
find ALL of the documents listed in all
the files in the ‘Privilege Log’ folder that
are using the standard ‘Bates’ style legal
naming convention in Mr. Dougherty’s
online Dropbox. Stay tuned.
I’ll ask this question again ( I guess ) for
about the fourth time.
Does ANYONE have an actual MANIFEST
for ALL the things that were actually
included in this SAIT/FOIA package?
Not contents. Just a simple MANIFEST
of what is SUPPOSED to be in it.
If anyone who made FOIA/FOIL package
request has that… it would be great to
see it.
What exactly is it, in WTK’s comment that you are saying is “TOTALLY not true”?
Marti… Elizabeth did answer this just above (kinda).
The ‘Privilege Log’ folder in the Dropbox contains
4 documents that have lists of other documents
using the standard ‘Bates’ naming convention for
legal documents, and it then lists ‘Privilege’
exceptions being claimed on THOSE documents.
However… I still can’t find ALL of the ‘Bates’ name
format documents listed in the ‘Privilege’
documents in the actual FOIA/FOIL package.
They MAY all actually be there… but as you can
imagine… verifying that fer sure is going to take
a while. Stay tuned.
**
** BLUE RIDGE HOTSHOT BROWN’S SCOUTING TRIP FROM 1529 TO 1550
There was a lot of discussion yesterday and the day before about this
‘scouting trip’ that Blue Ridge Hotshot (Captain) Trueheart Brown took
from 1529 to 1550 on June 30, 2013.
The real mystery was whether or not he would HAVE to have had the BR UTV
( or anyone’s UTV ) to accomplish this full ‘scouting trip’… or whether
it really could have fully accomplished ‘on foot’.
If he really did NEED an ATV for that trip… then that was playing
havoc with the known trip ( during that same time ) where Frisby took
the BR UTV out to try and make that second face-to-face that Marsh
had requested… which turned into the rescue mission for McDonough.
I posted the following somwhere in that discussion…
>> WantsToKnowTheTruth on January 28, 2014 at 3:33 pm said:
>>
>> I guess the only real answer to this part of the puzzle is to just
>> take a moment and put a distance number on all the `moves’ being
>> shown in that 21 minute time period and determine if we really are
>> seeing a guy with a GPS unit `on foot’… or whether he really would
>> have had to have some fast vehicle for some of those `moves’ recorded
>> in the BR GPS tracking.
Well… just to satisfy my own curiosity… I went ahead and did that.
Results follow…
** SUMMARY
From 1510 to 1516 ( 6 minutes ) The BR GPS tracker is simply moving
around over near/around the Youth Camp on Shrine Road where the Blue
Ridge Crew Carriers are now staged.
At 1517, the GPS tracker leaves that area and heads WEST on the
Cutover Trail that connects the Youth Camp area on Shrine Road
with the ‘Sesame Area’ where the GM vehicles and the Blue Ridge
Superintendent Truck are still parked.
At 1520 ( 3 minutes later ) the GPS tracker STOPS at a point on
the Cutover Trail near its western end.
The GPS tracker remains stationary here for 8 minutes.
It is during these 8 minutes when Frisby then ‘borrowed’ the BR UTV
and headed west (alone in the UTV) to attend the second face-to-face
meeting that Marsh must have just requested some few minutes earlier.
So at this point the GPS tracker stay with Brown over at this
western end of the Cutover Trail while Frisby heads WEST in the BR UTV.
At 1529 we see the beginning of Brown’s documented ‘scouting trip’
that he did during the time Frisby was trying to get out WEST for
the second face-to-face meeting that Marsh had requested only a
few minutes earlier. The GPS tracker movements have now SLOWED DOWN
considerable, indicating that Brown performed this entire ‘scouting
trip’ ON FOOT while Frisby had the ATV.
From 1529 to 1541 we see Brown ‘walking/running’ EAST along the Cutover Trail.
From 1542 to 1550 we see Brown ‘walking/running’ WEST back on the return trip.
Brown’s slowest rate of travel in-between any 60 second GPS update
during this ‘scouting trip’ is 1.07 mph.
Brown’s fastest rate of travel in-between any 60 second GPS update
during this ‘scouting trip’ is 5.31 mph.
His ‘average’ rate of travel for the entire scouting trip all
the way EAST and then back again is about 3.5 to 4.0 mph.
This would be consistent with a healthy man being ‘on foot’and simply
walking at a brisk, fast pace the entire time… EXCEPT for the following…
The entire scouting trip took Brown 21 minutes.
There are 21 60-second GPS updates during that time.
For SEVEN of those 60 second ‘legs’ of his trip… his rate of travel
exceeds 4.0 miles per hour and that would be considered either
a ‘jog’ or a ‘running’ rate.
For FOUR of those SEVEN… his rate exceeds 4.5 miles per hour.
For ONE of those SEVEN… his rate suddenly jumps to 5.3 miles per hour.
Anything over 4.5 mph ( and certainly 5.3 mph ) would be considered
a VERY fast rate of travel for a man on foot on a winding dirt road
so either Brown was, in fact, almost RUNNING during those 60 second
travel segments… or he had ‘hitched a ride’ with someone or
something… but JUST for those travel segments.
Brown never exceeded 5.3 mph and he averaged only about 3.5 to 4.0 mph.,
so there is no reason to believe that Brown would have had to
have had an actual powered ATV for this ‘scouting trip’.
There’s no real reason to believe he could NOT have accomplished this full
‘scouting trip’ on foot ( with, perhaps, just one or two hitched rides
or times when he had to RUN quickly ) while Frisby was gone for with
the BR UTV for 21 minutes.
The fastest human, Usain Bolt, can reach 44.72 km/h (27.79 mph).
The average long distance running speed of humans is 5 to 8 miles per hour.
Average humans can sprint for short distances at 12 to 15 miles per hour.
Brown stayed well within all those MPH limits for his entire ‘scouting trip’.
** FULL BR MOVEMENT DATA WITH LAT/LONG, DISTANCES,
** TRAVEL RATES, AND SHORT DESCRIPTIONS
Here are the GPS tracking updates with full Latitude and Longitude
coordinates for each ‘move’ as well as ‘Distance traveled’ ( in feet )
and the corresponding travel rate between ‘moves’ as ‘Miles Per Hour’.
This section has minimal ‘Descriptions’ of movements and is just
the raw data. See below for the same time sequence without the
actual Latitude/Longitude information and longer ‘Descriptions’.
LEGEND:
YC = Youth Camp
SA = Sesame Area, where GM Crew Vehicles were parked
CR = Cutover Trail, the EAST-WEST trail that connected SA to Shrine Rd.
BR = Blue Ridge ( Hotshots )
GM = Granite Mountain ( Hotshots )
SJS = St. Joseph Shrine (on Shrine Road). Where Helmet-cam video was shot.
COLUMNS:
Time – Latitude, Longitude – Distance traveled – Rate – Description
1510 – 34.228276, -112.753941 – 0000.000 ft – 00.00 mph – At entrance to YC
1511 – 34.228276, -112.753941 – 0000.000 ft – 00.00 mph – Stationary
1512 – 34.230263, -112.757267 – 1334.500 ft – 15.16 mph – NW corner of YC
1513 – 34.229713, -112.756923 – 0204.331 ft – 02.32 mph – SOUTH on YC lot
1514 – 34.229145, -112.756730 – 0359.642 ft – 04.09 mph – Back to Shrine Rd.
1515 – 34.229944, -112.758640 – 0746.938 ft – 08.49 mph – WEST on Shrine Rd.
1516 – 34.229163, -112.756859 – 0636.595 ft – 07.23 mph – EAST on Shrine Rd.
1517 – 34.227300, -112.757417 – 0942.079 ft – 10.71 mph – WEST on CT
1518 – 34.227216, -112.759042 – 0651.860 ft – 07.41 mph – WEST on CT
1519 – 34.226480, -112.762883 – 1296.040 ft – 14.73 mph – WEST on CT
1520 – 34.226187, -112.763903 – 0359.430 ft – 04.08 mph – WEST on CT. STOPS
NOTE: The tracker is STATIONARY for 8 minutes here at the western end
of the Cutover Trail (CT). Somewhere in these 8 minutes would appear
to be the moment when Frisby borrowed the BR UTV for his solo trip
out west for the second face-to-face meeting Marsh requested, and
left to try and make that meeting ( only to have it turn into the
rescue mission for Brendan McDonough instead )…
1521 – 34.226187, -112.763903 – 0000.000 ft – 00.00 mph – Sationary
1522 – 34.226187, -112.763903 – 0000.000 ft – 00.00 mph – Sationary
1523 – 34.226187, -112.763903 – 0000.000 ft – 00.00 mph – Sationary
1524 – 34.226187, -112.763903 – 0000.000 ft – 00.00 mph – Sationary
1525 – 34.226187, -112.763903 – 0000.000 ft – 00.00 mph – Sationary
1526 – 34.226187, -112.763903 – 0000.000 ft – 00.00 mph – Sationary
1527 – 34.226187, -112.763903 – 0000.000 ft – 00.00 mph – Sationary
1528 – 34.226187, -112.763903 – 0000.000 ft – 00.00 mph – Sationary
NOTE: This is now the record of Brown’s 1529 – 1550 ‘scouting trip’
where he (apparently) WALKS almost the entire length of the Cutover
Trail (CT) to the EAST, then immediately turns around and WALKS
back WEST again to the point where he started and arrives back
there just as Frisby returns with the BR UTV.
1529 – 34.226178, -112.764450 – 0149.672 ft – 01.70 mph – EAST on CT
1530 – 34.226178, -112.764450 – 0000.000 ft – 00.00 mph – Stationary
1531 – 34.226178, -112.764450 – 0000.000 ft – 00.00 mph – Stationary
1532 – 34.226418, -112.763087 – 0410.240 ft – 04.66 mph – EAST on CT Start
1533 – 34.226498, -112.762465 – 0180.530 ft – 02.05 mph – EAST on CT
1534 – 34.226968, -112.761135 – 0467.143 ft – 05.31 mph – EAST on CT
1535 – 34.226826, -112.759976 – 0374.364 ft – 04.25 mph – EAST on CT
1536 – 34.227216, -112.759139 – 0309.871 ft – 03.52 mph – EAST on CT
1537 – 34.227243, -112.758409 – 0251.268 ft – 02.86 mph – EAST on CT
1538 – 34.226994, -112.757637 – 0224.759 ft – 02.55 mph – EAST on CT
1539 – 34.227562, -112.757444 – 0305.361 ft – 03.47 mph – EAST on CT
1540 – 34.228006, -112.756854 – 0203.820 ft – 02.32 mph – EAST on CT
1541 – 34.228449, -112.756543 – 0184.107 ft – 02.09 mph – EAST on CT End
1542 – 34.227828, -112.756972 – 0265.927 ft – 03.02 mph – WEST on CT Start
1543 – 34.227065, -112.757455 – 0397.723 ft – 04.52 mph – WEST on CT
1544 – 34.227314, -112.758581 – 0370.696 ft – 04.21 mph – WEST on CT
1545 – 34.227110, -112.759643 – 0351.847 ft – 04.00 mph – WEST on CT
1546 – 34.226941, -112.760223 – 0226.160 ft – 02.57 mph – WEST on CT
1547 – 34.227003, -112.761177 – 0326.175 ft – 03.71 mph – WEST on CT
1548 – 34.226569, -112.762068 – 0324.763 ft – 03.69 mph – WEST on CT
1549 – 34.226480, -112.763119 – 0322.840 ft – 03.67 mph – WEST on CT
1550 – 34.226187, -112.764471 – 0409.585 ft – 04.65 mph – WEST on CT End
NOTE: Brown has now completed his ‘scouting trip’ along the Cutover
Trail (CT) and has returned to where he started. Frisby is now back
from his ‘rescue mission’ with the BR UTV. Brown gets back in the ATV
right away (with Frisby) and this is now the start of quick trip
out WEST to the NORTH end of the Sesame Area (SA) to move the
BR Superintendent truck.
1551 – 34.227057, -112.766048 – 0788.484 ft – 08.96 mph – NORTH in SA
1552 – 34.227021, -112.767336 – 0412.537 ft – 04.69 mph – NORTH in SA
1553 – 34.229256, -112.771348 – 1566.380 ft – 17.80 mph – NORTH in SA
1554 – 34.231782, -112.773124 – 1197.480 ft – 13.61 mph – Arrive BR Sup truck
1555 – 34.230223, -112.771692 – 0749.953 ft – 08.52 mph – SOUTH in SA
1556 – 34.228893, -112.771145 – 0628.204 ft – 07.14 mph – SOUTH in SA
1557 – 34.228582, -112.770619 – 0206.368 ft – 02.35 mph – SOUTH in SA
1558 – 34.227216, -112.767636 – 1115.170 ft – 12.67 mph – SOUTH in SA
1559 – 34.227012, -112.766038 – 0537.775 ft – 06.11 mph – SOUTH in SA
1600 – 34.226196, -112.764471 – 0746.553 ft – 08.48 mph – EAST on CT
1601 – 34.227101, -112.761027 – 1125.580 ft – 12.79 mph – EAST on CT
1602 – 34.226977, -112.760587 – 0160.272 ft – 01.82 mph – EAST on CT (Slight)
1603 – 34.226977, -112.760587 – 0000.000 ft – 00.00 mph – Stationary
1604 – 34.227340, -112.758602 – 0703.909 ft – 08.00 mph – EAST on CT
1605 – 34.229035, -112.756553 – 1187.240 ft – 13.49 mph – EAST on CT (Fast)
1606 – 34.228742, -112.754740 – 0695.706 ft – 07.91 mph – EAST on Shrine Rd.
1607 – 34.229851, -112.755491 – 0507.458 ft – 05.77 mph – Up driveway of YC
1608 – 34.229851, -112.755491 – 0000.000 ft – 00.00 mph – At BR staging area
1609 – 34.229851, -112.755491 – 0000.000 ft – 00.00 mph – Stationary
1610 – 34.227183, -112.752758 – 1360.570 ft – 15.46 mph – EAST to SJS parklot
NOTE: That’s it for the detailed Latitude/Longitude/Distance/Rate data.
The following are just simply miniute-to-minute descriptions of the
rest of the tracking data leading all the way up to the time of
deployment out in the box canyon… including the trip to retrieve
the Granite Mountain Crew Carriers…
1611 – Still stationary at St. Joseph Shrine (SJS) parking lot
1612 – Back WEST just a bit to where Shrine Rd pavement ends
1613 – All the way back to Youth Camp BR vehicle staging area
1614 – A little SOUTH in Youth Camp but still on the property
1615 – A little WEST in Youth Camp but still on the property
NOTE: START of quick trip WEST to get the GM Crew Carriers…
1616 – Headed WEST on CT again. Start of trip to fetch GM Carriers
1617 – Still heading WEST on CT towards GM Crew Carrier parking spot
1618 – Still heading WEST on CT towards GM Crew Carrier parking spot
1619 – Now headed NORTH in SA towards GM Crew Carrier parking spot
1620 – ARRIVAL at the GM Crew Carrier parking spot.
1621 – Immediately headed back SOUTH again through SA
1622 – More travel SOUTH in SA… then headed EAST on CT
1623 – Still heading EAST on CT
1624 – Arrival back where CT meets Shrine road
1625 – Arrival back where BR vehicles are parked at Youth Camp
NOTE: END of quick trip WEST to get the GM Crew Carriers.
ALSO NOTE: During the following time the GPS tracker stays at the
Youth Camp (YC) and there are only small movements in/around the area
where the BR Crew Carriers are parked. The tracker remain right around
the staging area inside the Youth Camp compound during this time…
1626 – Still at BR vehicle staging area at Youth Camp (YC)
1627 – Still at BR vehicle staging area at Youth Camp (YC)
1628 – Still at BR vehicle staging area at Youth Camp (YC)
1629 – Still at BR vehicle staging area at Youth Camp (YC)
1630 – Still at BR vehicle staging area at Youth Camp (YC)
1631 – Still at BR vehicle staging area at Youth Camp (YC)
1632 – Still at BR vehicle staging area at Youth Camp (YC)
1633 – Still at BR vehicle staging area at Youth Camp (YC)
1634 – Still at BR vehicle staging area at Youth Camp (YC)
NOTE: Blue Ridge evacuates the Youth Camp (YC) and Shrine area now
and BR convoy heads directly SOUTH to the Ranch House Restaurant.
They only stop for 2 minutes on the way out at the parking lot
of the St. Joseph Shrine to (apparently) speak to the firefighters
who are already there and who, only minutes later, are going to
be shooting the Helmet-Cam video that captures GM radio traffic.
According to this GPS tracking… The BR GPS unit ( Brown ) was
actually still there where the Helmet-Cam video was about to be
shot just 60 seconds before GM Captain Steed transmits his first
“We are in front of the flaming front” MAYDAY message at 1639.
1635 – Heading EAST out the driveway of the Youth Camp (YC)
1636 – At the St. Joseph Shrine (SJS) parking lot now
1637 – Stationary at the SJS parking lot
1638 – Stationary at the SJS parking lot
1639 – Suddenly all the way EAST on Shrine Rd, almost to Highway 89
1640 – At the intersection of Shrine road and Highway 89 now
1641 – Heading SOUTH on Highway 89 to the Ranch House Restaurant
1642 – Heading SOUTH on Highway 89 to the Ranch House Restaurant
1643 – Arrival at the Ranch House Restaurant
NOTE: 1643 is one of the estimated times of the burnover in the box canyon.
** SAME BR MOVEMENT DATA WITH LAT/LONG REMOVED
** AND LONGER TEXT DESCRIPTION(S) ADDED
Here is the exact same BR GPS tracking data as above but this time
the Latitude/Longitude values are removed and longer text descriptions
of the actual movements are added.
LEGEND:
YC = Youth Camp
SA = Sesame Area, where GM Crew Vehicles were parked
CR = Cutover Trail, the EAST-WEST trail that connected SA to Shrine Rd.
BR = Blue Ridge ( Hotshots )
GM = Granite Mountain ( Hotshots )
SJS = St. Joseph Shrine (on Shrine Road). Where Helmet-cam video was shot.
COLUMNS:
Time – Distance traveled (FEET) – Rate (MPH) – Description
1510 – 0000.000 – 00.00 – On Shrine Rd, near entrance to Youth Camp (YC)
1511 – 0000.000 – 00.00 – Stationary
1512 – 1334.500 – 15.16 – Moved to NORTHWEST corner of YC property
1513 – 0204.331 – 02.32 – SOUTH just a little, still on YC property
1514 – 0359.642 – 04.09 – SOUTH across YC field back to Shrine road
1515 – 0746.938 – 08.49 – WEST on Shrine Rd to where YC property ends
1516 – 0636.595 – 07.23 – EAST on Shrine Rd along YC property line
1517 – 0942.079 – 10.71 – WEST on the CT towards Sesame Area (SA)
1518 – 0651.860 – 07.41 – Still heading WEST on CT
1519 – 1296.040 – 14.73 – Still heading WEST on CT
1520 – 0359.430 – 04.08 – More WEST on CT, then STOPS here for 8 minutes
NOTE: The tracker is STATIONARY for 8 minutes here at the western end
of the Cutover Trail (CT). Somewhere in these 8 minutes would appear
to be the moment when Frisby borrowed the BR UTV for his solo trip
out west for the second face-to-face meeting Marsh requested, and
left to try and make that meeting ( only to have it turn into the
rescue mission for Brendan McDonough instead )…
1521 – 0000.000 – 00.00 – Sationary
1522 – 0000.000 – 00.00 – Sationary
1523 – 0000.000 – 00.00 – Sationary
1524 – 0000.000 – 00.00 – Sationary
1525 – 0000.000 – 00.00 – Sationary
1526 – 0000.000 – 00.00 – Sationary
1527 – 0000.000 – 00.00 – Sationary
1528 – 0000.000 – 00.00 – Sationary
NOTE: This is the section where Brown appears to be ‘on foot’. He takes a
long walk EASTWARD on the Cutover Trail (CT) to almost where it meets the
Shrine Rd., then he turns around and walks BACK (WEST) to where he started.
This appears to be the time section where Frisby had ‘borrowed’ the BR UTV
and headed WEST for his planned second face-to-face requested by Eric Marsh.
This would also be the timeframe where that meeting was aborted and turned
into the rescue mission for Brendan McDonough instead.
1529 – 0149.672 – 01.70 – On CT, Slight (walking?) move WEST from 1520 spot
1530 – 0000.000 – 00.00 – Stationary
1531 – 0000.000 – 00.00 – Stationary
1532 – 0410.240 – 04.66 – Slight movement EAST on CT. Start of EASTWARD trip
1533 – 0180.530 – 02.05 – Slight movement EAST on CT
1534 – 0467.143 – 05.31 – Slight movement EAST on CT
1535 – 0374.364 – 04.25 – Slight movement EAST on CT
1536 – 0309.871 – 03.52 – Slight movement EAST on CT
1537 – 0251.268 – 02.86 – Slight movement EAST on CT
1538 – 0224.759 – 02.55 – Slight movement EAST on CT
1539 – 0305.361 – 03.47 – Slight movement EAST on CT
1540 – 0203.820 – 02.32 – Slight movement EAST on CT
1541 – 0184.107 – 02.09 – Slight movement EAST on CT. End of EASTWARD trip
1542 – 0265.927 – 03.02 – Slight movement WEST on CT. Start of WESTWARD trip
1543 – 0397.723 – 04.52 – Slight movement WEST on CT
1544 – 0370.696 – 04.21 – Slight movement WEST on CT
1545 – 0351.847 – 04.00 – Slight movement WEST on CT
1546 – 0226.160 – 02.57 – Slight movement WEST on CT
1547 – 0326.175 – 03.71 – Slight movement WEST on CT
1548 – 0324.763 – 03.69 – Slight movement WEST on CT
1549 – 0322.840 – 03.67 – Slight movement WEST on CT
1550 – 0409.585 – 04.65 – Slight movement WEST on CT. End of WESTWARD trip
NOTE: Frisby has now returned from his trip out WEST and has already dropped
Brendan off at the GM Supervisor Truck. Frisby returns with the ATV to the
exact point on the Cutover Trail (CT) where his WESTWARD trip started…
and the next thing that happens is a very quick trip to retrieve/move the
BR Superintendent truck parked out at the NORTH end of the Sesame Area (SA).
1551 – 0788.484 – 08.96 – On CT. Start of ‘quick trip’ WEST to BR Supt truck
1552 – 0412.537 – 04.69 – NORTH in SA towards BR Supt truck parking
1553 – 1566.380 – 17.80 – NORTH in SA towards BR Supt truck parking
1554 – 1197.480 – 13.61 – Arrival where BR Supt truck is parked top of SA
1555 – 0749.953 – 08.52 – On the move back SOUTH through the SA again
1556 – 0628.204 – 07.14 – Still heading SOUTH in the SA
1557 – 0206.368 – 02.35 – Still heading SOUTH in the SA (Right by GM Carriers)
1558 – 1115.170 – 12.67 – Still heading SOUTH in the SA
1559 – 0537.775 – 06.11 – Still heading SOUTH in the SA
1600 – 0746.553 – 08.48 – SOUTH in SA, then a left onto the CT. EAST on CT
1601 – 1125.580 – 12.79 – EAST on CT (quickly). Seems to STOP at this point
1602 – 0160.272 – 01.82 – Only a slight movement EAST on cutover road
1603 – 0000.000 – 00.00 – Stationary
1604 – 0703.909 – 08.00 – On the move EAST again on CT
1605 – 1187.240 – 13.49 – Fast push EAST on CT almost all the way to Shrine Rd
1606 – 0695.706 – 07.91 – Right on Shrine Rd, then EAST to YC entrance
1607 – 0507.458 – 05.77 – Up YC driveway to where BR Crew Carriers parked
1608 – 0000.000 – 00.00 – Stationary
1609 – 0000.000 – 00.00 – Stationary
1610 – 1360.570 – 15.46 – All the way EAST on Shrine Rd to SJS parking lot
NOTE: That’s it for the detailed Distance/Rate data.
The following are just simply miniute-to-minute descriptions of the
rest of the tracking data leading all the way up to the time of
deployment out in the box canyon… including the trip to retrieve
the Granite Mountain Crew Carriers…
1611 – Still stationary at St. Joseph Shrine (SJS) parking lot
1612 – Back WEST just a bit to where Shrine Rd pavement ends
1613 – All the way back to Youth Camp BR vehicle staging area
1614 – A little SOUTH in Youth Camp but still on the property
1615 – A little WEST in Youth Camp but still on the property
NOTE: START of quick trip WEST to get the GM Crew Carriers.
1616 – Headed WEST on CT again. Start of trip to fetch GM Carriers
1617 – Still heading WEST on CT towards GM Crew Carrier parking spot
1618 – Still heading WEST on CT towards GM Crew Carrier parking spot
1619 – Now headed NORTH in SA towards GM Crew Carrier parking spot
1620 – ARRIVAL at the GM Crew Carrier parking spot.
1621 – Immediately headed back SOUTH again through SA
1622 – More travel SOUTH in SA… then headed EAST on CT
1623 – Still heading EAST on CT
1624 – Arrival back where CT meets Shrine road
1625 – Arrival back where BR vehicles are parked at Youth Camp
NOTE: END of quick trip WEST to get the GM Crew Carriers.
ALSO NOTE: During the following time the GPS tracker stays at the
Youth Camp (YC) and there are only small movements in/around the area
where the BR Crew Carriers are parked. The tracker remain right around
the staging area inside the Youth Camp compound during this time…
1626 – Still at BR vehicle staging area at Youth Camp (YC)
1627 – Still at BR vehicle staging area at Youth Camp (YC)
1628 – Still at BR vehicle staging area at Youth Camp (YC)
1629 – Still at BR vehicle staging area at Youth Camp (YC)
1630 – Still at BR vehicle staging area at Youth Camp (YC)
1631 – Still at BR vehicle staging area at Youth Camp (YC)
1632 – Still at BR vehicle staging area at Youth Camp (YC)
1633 – Still at BR vehicle staging area at Youth Camp (YC)
1634 – Still at BR vehicle staging area at Youth Camp (YC)
NOTE: Blue Ridge evacuates the Youth Camp (YC) and Shrine area now
and BR convoy heads directly SOUTH to the Ranch House Restaurant.
They only stop for 2 minutes on the way out at the parking lot
of the St. Joseph Shrine to (apparently) speak to the firefighters
who are already there and who, only minutes later, are going to
be shooting the Helmet-Cam video that captures GM radio traffic.
According to this GPS tracking… The BR GPS unit ( Brown ) was
actually still there where the Helmet-Cam video was about to be
shot just 60 seconds before GM Captain Steed transmits his first
“We are in front of the flaming front” MAYDAY message at 1639.
1635 – Heading EAST out the driveway of the Youth Camp (YC)
1636 – At the St. Joseph Shrine (SJS) parking lot now
1637 – Stationary at the SJS parking lot
1638 – Stationary at the SJS parking lot
1639 – Suddenly all the way EAST on Shrine Rd, almost to Highway 89
1640 – At the intersection of Shrine road and Highway 89 now
1641 – Heading SOUTH on Highway 89 to the Ranch House Restaurant
1642 – Heading SOUTH on Highway 89 to the Ranch House Restaurant
1643 – Arrival at the Ranch House Restaurant
NOTE: 1643 is one of the estimated times of the burnover in the box canyon.
WTKTT,
I haven’t double-checked your times and figures, but this is wonderful, wonderful work!
11.3 minutes per mile is pretty quick hiking for a pack on, but within the range of possibility. I’ve seen a few guys (and one gal) do the pack test (45lbs for 3 miles) at that speed, so it seems within reason for short bursts wearing field gear.
I’m going to copy your list to watch with the GPS video, so maybe I’ll finally get an idea of how all these locations relate.
Thank you!!
Pack test is on flat ground 11/2 mile test not a 5 or 6 mile test..
I do a lot of Horse riding in the Mountains. Horses walk faster than people. On flat ground 5mph average.
Mountains 3mph average. That’s at a walk. Horses in the mountains will out walk people two to one. 1 mile in 11 min. is fast in any ones book in the mountains. I could not keep that pace with a horse unless it was a trained endurance horse. 3 Mph. on a trail with no obstacle’s is doable for a crew.
Current arduous work capacity test qualification is 3 miles, carrying 45 lbs, within 45 min. See page 13-10 in the redbook:
http://www.nifc.gov/PUBLICATIONS/redbook/2012/Chapter13.pdf
I’ve seen people complete it without running in 32 minutes.
From 15:29 – 15:50 the GPS is recording movement along a relatively flat stretch of road.
I’m not saying that Brown *didn’t* have a vehicle at that time, just that it’s not impossible (or improbable) that he was on foot.
Unless some one is doing it different here in twin Falls the BLM and FS do it at the collage flat ground, not in the mountains, on up hill and down hill terrain. That would probably change the 45min requirements.
And I am sure there are a few that could do the same in the mountains. I would have gladly hired you on my crew any time.
Please check away.
That’s what this is
all about here. Vetting conclusions and checking facts.
Remember, though, that we already have at least one photo of Brown showing he was NOT wearing a pack at all in this timeframe.
Yes.
But … so what? I continue to fail to understand the relevance of all this. Please help me understand.
I can’t speak for everyone else, but here’s what I get out of this:
1. Location/time of Brown, Frisby, and the Ranger UTV
2. Time of McDonough pick up
3. Time of face-to-face meeting and proposal of such
4. Time that BR and GM buggies get picked up
5. Therefore, time range of photos taken from lunch spot and resting place, and better understanding of the time stamps on those photos and videos.
The timeline isn’t entirely clear yet. This can help.
But for what purpose? So what if the SAIR and the ADOSH reports are off by small amounts of time? I am asking because I honestly do not understand, not by way of suggesting the reasoning is wrong.
Elizabeth… you have made it clear that
YOUR primary reasoning for ‘investigating’
this incident is that you simply want to know
the WHY. Everything that doesn’t seem
( to YOU ) to be directly leading to an
answer to that question seems irrelevant
( to YOU ). A diversion. A tangent.
That’s OK. It really is.
The entire country ( perhaps the world )
still wants to know WHY… if that can
( still ) be possibly determined.
But as for the DETAILS ( which you say
don’t much matter )… that’s one of
those things where an old saying just
comes into play…
To those who understand…
No explanation is necessary.
To those who do NOT…
no explanation is possible.
Some of us want to know the exact
DETAILS of this event/incident almost
as mush as we want to know the WHY.
( Re-read Marti’s eloquent post about this
very thing somewhere above where you
even responded asking if there was
any litigation. )
Perhaps we’re thinking of incidents in our
own past where the DETAILS were, in
fact, just as important as the WHY.
Perhaps some of us are thinking of a LOT
of children who are going to grow up
without fathers who will, themselves,
want to know EVERYTHING that
happened that day… and perhaps even
(many) grandchildren with the same desire.
Perhaps we just simply WANT TO KNOW.
To us… the DETAILS MATTER.
They really do.
If you don’t get that… I, personally, can’t
explain it to you.
I hope you find (only) what you seem to
be looking for, here. I really do.
But please don’t criticize a lot of us for
diligently pursuing the DETAILS of that
day just because YOU don’t think they
matter.
spot on, WWTKTT-
I along with Sonny care for Elizabeth yet in recent times it did come off as you say above yet we also know she can be misunderstood when it comes to online communication. She is a fine woman.
WTKTT!~
Thank you BUNCHES for doing this!
Especially the segment from the Youth Camp to the Ranch House Restaurant, which I spent quite a few hours today working on vis a vis the photographs.
I had finally finished figuring out (and it wasn’t easy) that Trew was on/off/on the UTM in the midst of that firestorm with someone I haven’t yet id’d riding shotgun, as they rode from there through burning embers to the Ranch House in about 10 minutes, in time for him to be seen in that photo with Frisbee.
In case anyone would like to revisit those visuals, here is the link to the video slideshow I made out of them and posted on YouTube:
http://tinyurl.com/mmnlxlv
Also, but I don’t have the energy to go into this in detail tonight, I am 100% sure Trew didn’t drive the UTV in, but someone did from somewhere south of where the photos of the road going past the little green house were taken from above it. This is the spot:
34°13’13.35″N, 112°45’40.33″W
The photographer was Papich, riding shotgun. That’s him in the DeSoto photo of the UTV.
Papich is also the one who photographed Trew standing on the driver’s side of the ATV at the Youth Camp. McCord shot the photo of Trew and the ATV in the midst of the burning embers.
When Papich shot Trew and the ATV at the Youth camp, he was on the driver’s side or in the drivers seat of a vehicle, but I don’t know which one. He also shot another photo from above that same green house on Sesame Street at 1635, but I am currently clueless as to how he managed to do that.
Currently I don’t know where/what vehicle McCord was in when he shot the photo of Trew and the ATV in the burning embers.
There are some folks that worked this fire that deserve some kind of medals. Maybe some people don’t believe these visual records are all that important. I think these guys took all these pictures for a reason.
>> Marti wrote…
>> Currently I don’t know where/what vehicle
>> McCord was in when he shot the photo of
>> Trew and the ATV in the burning embers.
Not sure about that photo… but BR Hotshot
Mccord is the one who shot the
YARNELL_GAMBLE video ( circa 1630? )
while sitting in the driver’s seat of one of the
BR Crew Carriers.
1630 still looks like the time of that video
since that’s exactly in the middle of the time
when the BR GPS tracking shows they were
just ‘preparing to leave’ the Youth Camp area
and the fire was just coming over the ridge…
which is what Mccord was actually trying
to capture in that YARNELL_GAMBLE video.
Thx for that reminder! I tend to focus more on stills than video, partly bcuz Lightroom can get squirrely in how it shows videos.
McCord’s camera was way off in it’s timestamping. I has to move it around a bit to get the sequences I used for my YouTube video.
One of the bennies to me of your listing of the GPS data of Trew evacuating is that it, relative to the photos, accurately tells me when Trew arrived at the Ranch House Cafe parking lot. That’s pretty major because the only time-stamped photo we have from that parking lot is McCord’s photo of Trew, Frisbee, and a part of the crew, with Trew and Frisbee on radios.
All the other photos we have of the parking lot are media photos and, off the top of my head, I don’t think any of them are timestamped. That’s been really frustrating for me.
When I synced McCord’s photos, I forgot to sync the video with them. So it still has the rather wildly original inaccurate timestamp. I’m gonna sync that video to the others I already synced.
Next, I’m gonna assume McCord’s pic of Trew and Frisbee is most likely about five minutes or so after Trew arrived there. So I’m gonna sync that photo to that time. Then I’ll re-sync the rest of his stuff to that photo and see what happens. It may help get a bead on when he took that video.
Also, I think the visual info in that video is totally peripheral. It’s all about the radio capture. But it does help me that you reminded me he’s in the buggy when he takes it. One less vehicle to try to identify.
I think the reason for Trew’s little trip down Sesame to just north of that neighborhood wasn’t random.
I believe, via the photos I’ve mentioned several times, they parked the utility truck somewhere around here, with the trailer attached, got the UTV off it and someone (not Trew) rode it in with Papich riding shotgun and taking photos.
That would mean somebody had to go back and get it and drive it over to the Ranch House Cafe parking lot. I think that’s what the GPS is telling us is going on here.
John MacLean has a new post up at Wildfire Today. Basically backing away from the “house” claim and that about Marsh’s location. Now emphasizing the fact the videos show ongoing communication about the move and the fact that these conversations were not revealed in the investigation interviews (except I guess for the Musser request, revealed by ADOSH). Both the latter points are very valid, they were overshadowed by the claim about the word “house”.
Gabbert has the date of the incident wrong ( June 30, 2014 ),
but he is also NOT allowing any comments on that press
release from John Maclean so there’s no way to tell him
about the typo.
UPDATE: Mr. Gabbert still isn’t allowing any comments
over on that John Maclean press release of yesterday…
but the wrong date for the incident has, in fact, been changed
to June 30, 2013.
BTW: The actual (new) Gabbert BLOG post that contains the
(new) press release from John Maclean is here…
http://wildfiretoday.com/2014/01/29/update-from-john-maclean-about-yarnell-hill-fire/
Mike, I have replied to you above – please respond. Thanks.
“HELP OUT AT” – that is what the audio says. Not “JUMP OUT AT.” As in “GM is going to the ‘structures’ toward ‘Cordes’ to ‘help out at’ those structures.”
If ( and only if ) you are referring to the response to the
“Are you with Granite Mountain right now?” query in the
only AIR STUDY video that has been made public so far…
I disagree.
Enhanced audio of only that exchange from the AIR STUDY video…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eq0rtX5OgKI
WTKTT – you cut the CONTEXT of the clip. It says “help out at” – a discussion is being had about where GM is going, and they are going to “help out at” the structures in Yarnell, with Cordes, who has been calling for help.
That said, if you have a meaning for the phrase “jump out at,” please tell us. What does it mean?
Reply to Elizabeth on January 30, 2014 at 6:47 am
>> Elizabeth said…
>> WTKTT – you cut the CONTEXT of the clip.
>> It says “help out at”
Elizabeth… I may be the only one who has actually
identified the REAL context of the clip. H&M didn’t
even attempt to translate the REAL start of the
whole exchange in that video which begins with
the conversation between ASM2 and ground command.
The ENTIRE context of that captured conversation is
that ASM2 wanted ground to check on Granite themselves
and at least find out if Marsh was ‘with’ the group of
men he could already ‘see’ down there ‘behind those
hills’ and ‘on the corner’ ( of the fire ).
Regardless… I’m confused now about EXACTLY
what piece of that video YOU are actually even
talking about.
Please give me an exact minute:second value for
the part that you are saying says “help out at”.
Your lack of detail ( and context ) in your own post(s)
leaves me wondering if I’m even understanding what
PART of the video YOU are even talking about.
>> a discussion is being had about where GM is going,
>> and they are going to “help out at” the structures in
>> Yarnell, with Cordes, who has been calling for help.
Sorry. I’m even more confused now.
Are you saying that Cordes has been identified in
the background audio of that AIR STUDY… or that there
is now some other new evidence that Cordes ( like
Musser ) was specifically requesting their help
in the 3:30 to 4:30 timeframe?
There’s probably no doubt that what you describe above
might have been what they were THINKING… but no
one says the specific phrase ‘help out at’ in the video.
Again… please give me a minute:second point in the
video where you hear the specific phrase ‘help out at’
because I’m honestly not sure at the moment we are
even talking about the same spot(s) in the audio track.
>> Elizabeth also said
>> That said, if you have a meaning for the phrase
>> “jump out at,” please tell us. What does it mean?
Wow. You must not know many southerners.
When a southerner who is on a ‘trip’ of any kind
says ‘jump out at’… it means where they intend
to ’emerge’ or ‘appear’ or it means a certain spot
where they intend to change course or even
finish the trip they are on.
Yankees would most probably relate better to…
“jump out” of bed
“jump out” of my skin
“jump out” at ( a certain point ).
Marsh saying “jump out at” makes PERFECT sense
in his response to what he says he was doing at the
moment in the ( your word ) CONTEXT of that
background audio.
Also… for about the 10th time…
Do you have ANY plans to somehow make ANY of the
other AIR STUDY videos you have publicly available…
particularly the one that (supposedly) has the radio
traffic with OPS2 Paul Musser trying to raise DIVSA
Eric Marsh in it?
Even if you are definitely NOT planning to do anything
of the sort… could you please let us know?
To Holly Neill answers to your two questions
1. Frisby in the SAIT said he was to meet for a second meeting at the same location as the first etc. I believe that is where that statement came from.
2. Yes the meeting was arraigned prior to 1529 when I believe Frisby left on the ATV to head for the meeting. In 21 min. he made the round trip picking up
McDonough and back to his crews location by 1550.
WTKTT
Your statement that the GPS unit stays with the captain.
It is very likely there for the crew as a whole so who ever is assigned as supervisor would be the GPS person. or there assistant. Just thoughts It is to Identify the crew location and not the person.
Makes perfect sense.
The Oregon 450 might have started out clipped to Steed, even,
but when GM finished eating breakfast up at the Model Creek
School and Cordes guided them out to the Sesame area
for their hike-in… that’s when they found out Eric had agreed
to be DIVS A ( all day )… so when they were ‘gearing up’ for
the hike Steed just handed it to Caldwell and said “Looks
like you’re the captain today”.
By the way… the SAIR makes no mention whether Caldwell
was ‘officially’ designated ‘Captain’ that day… but it makes
sense. That would be why… later in the day… we only
hear Steed, Caldwell and Marsh during the MAYDAY sequence.
At 1639…
GM Supervisor Steed makes the first MAYDAY call.
Steed gets busy directing deployment site prep but tells
GM Captain Caldwell to continue trying to raise “Air Attack”.
GM Captain Caldwell does just that… 2 or 3 times.
Suddenly… DIVSA Eric Marsh shows up and says…
( out of breath )
“This is DIVSA and I’m here (now) with Granite Mountain.”
Steed was in charge of the crew that’s all the fire organization needed to know my guess.
I suppose only Brendan McDonough might know
if there was ever a moment that day when Steed
turned to Caldwell and actually SAID… “You’re the
Captain today since I’m the Sup now.”… or if any
‘official’ announcement to that effect was ever
made to the GM Crew in general.
It may have just been ‘understood’ by all that
that was the situation now that Marsh was
going to be off being DIVS A all day… whenever
THAT moment really was when Steed and the
others were ‘informed’ about this.
No ‘announcement’ necessary?
Obviously Steed now=Sup, Caldwell now=Cap?
It would still be interesting to know if there
ever was such an ‘announcement’ to the
crew clarifying all that… or not.
WTKKT,
I think one of the only ways to find your answer to that question is to talk with a FORMER GMHS as to their Crew policy and protocol on the subject.
I’d rather just hear it from Brendan,
who was actually there that day.
Come to think of it… there are a
number of things I’d like to hear
from Brendan. I wonder if he will
ever voluntarily have more to say
about what went on that day?
Regarding FORMER GMHS… I thought
it was fascinating to watch that 2012
video ( with the shots of the burned
up ATV in it ) and realize how many
fellas were with GM in 2012 who
suddenly were NOT ‘on the team’ in
2013. There are a LOT of them…
just from the 2012 season alone.
Has ANYONE seen any comments
or interviews with ANY of these
(many/recent) former GMHS?
I haven’t.
I’ve seen some comments and
statements in articles from Hotshots
from OTHER teams who have
worked with GM… but it’s a little
odd that not one single former
GMHS has (apparently) had
anything to say about June 30, 2013.
WTKTT,
Stay tuned …. there’s more to come on the “bad decisions with prior good outcomes” related to all this
I’m tuned.
I had always assumed there was just high turnover on these crews, but maybe more to it?? I know 2 squad bosses from 2012 had left, so that had to have been a challenge. Then Marsh was on leave for a period of time earlier in 2013.
Mike,
Regarding the “turnover on these Crews.” GENERALLY, there is NOT high turnover on these Crews unless there are such things as internal issues. All rews have high turnover every 4-5 years or so (4-7 employees maybe) because of transfers, other jobs, marriage, personal reasons, and such.
I ALLEGE the high turnover on the GMHS very well MAY have had to do with the ‘bad decsions with good outcome’ attitude that SEEMED to be prevelent.
I’ve spent the entire day trying to make sense of everything having to do with Air Support, and at the end of it, nothing does. It’s really a complete jumble.
But, as I was reading the ADOSH Inspection Narrative I found this:
“September 4, 2013 – ADOSH e-mails five ex-Granite Mountain Hotshots requesting interviews.”
Unfortunately, after that, there’s nothing indicating they got them.
Marti… have you seen
the ‘Privilege Log’ in
Mr. Dougherty’s online
Dropbox from the
SAIT FOIA/FOIL
request?
That’s where they
list documents that
they were invoking
standard FOIA
‘protect privacy’
privilege on.
MOST of the MANY
documents they
invoked privilege
on just say it was
because there was
an email address
or a phone number
in it.
Rather than just
redact… they invoked
privilege on the
entire document(s)
whenever they could.
See this folder in
the SAIT package…
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/s12ue25v999j4lk/gwLh1_p43N/Privilege%20Log
Selective interviews, selective release of information all designed to fit the ‘pre-established conclusion.’
The lack of comments from ex-GMHS is likely telling us something. A couple have made comments in response to articles and said they thought it was a freak accident. But really very, very few have done that. If there was widespread belief that it was unavoidable, I think they would be saying so loud and often to defend the crew. It is like they do not want to speak the truth, but cannot bring themselves to say that which they do not believe. Hence, they say virtually nothing.
Mike,
Very insightful here, more than you know.
WTKTT
Maybe you can if you want go back over t WFTD and answer Holli question about the GPS, Brown and the 1529 to 1550 that Frisby went to get McDonough. My answer did not post. Or tell Holli all the info we/you have laid out over here on that subject. Thanks
Ok… if I get a chance… I will do that… but I can’t make any rhyme
or reason out of what Bill Gabbert does or doesn’t let through
over there… or what his criteria is for a ‘valid comment’.
I’ve lost count… but I think I’m only averaging about 1/3 of
attempted comments getting through… or first they get
through and then a few hours later they are gone again.
Mr. Powers… I had a few minutes to pop over to
Gabbert’s BLOG… but I can’t make heads or tails
out of it. Tons of new BLOG posts since the H&M
thing was published.
Exactly WHERE were you suggesting a make a comment?
I hit a number of BLOG posts that seem related to what
they published… but I don’t see this Holly person asking
anyone any questions about the GPS or Brown.
Exactly what is the title of the Gabbert BLOG post
where she is supposedly asking about this?
Its on the original one with the 108 reply’s
Right after a statement I made around the 20th
Her statement or questions come after and with todays date about 2/3 thru the thread I think the only one that is to day they went dead while we were churning away over here. No big deal if you cant find it thanks.
This BLOG post?…
BLOG post title: Discoveries in Yarnell Hill
Fire recordings provide new information
about location of Eric Marsh
http://wildfiretoday.com/2014/01/19/discoveries-in-yarnell-hill-fire-recordings-provide-new-information-about-location-of-eric-marsh/
This comment the starts like this?…
Holly Neill on January 28, 2014
at 10:34 am said:
Mr. Powers,
Excellent questions. Here is one in return:
…and goes on to say something about
how Marsh might have wanted to meet
with Frisby in some place OTHER than
where they met earlier… even though
there was only ONE way to get a UTV
up to where GM was and it would have
been the same way Frisby came before?
Is that what you want me to comment on?
That was the questions do what you have time for here on the GPS for BR with all the times Brown AND the 1529 to 1550 that Frisby had the ATV to go to the meeting Place but Picked up McDonough was my response.
to answer WantsToKnowTheTruth, this is the rules over there—
1.Be civil. “Flaming” of other writers is not allowed. Neither are crude, rude, mean-spirited comments, hate, or personal attacks that fail to add to the overall discourse. Name calling is strongly discouraged, however the site’s administrator reserves the right to use the term “idiot” when it is richly deserved. Offensive language and unsubstantiated allegations are not allowed.
The rules can be found here: http://wildfiretoday.com/2009/02/13/comments-we-love-comments-but-here-are-the-rules/
Yep. I know the rules over there.
Stayed well within them.
Some comments still either never appear or
first appear and are deleted a few hours later.
He is tailoring the content for his readers.
That’s ok. It’s his website.
Your right and he decides what fits his rules I still contend to him I did not break them then he uses statements I made over here.
I am not loosing any sleep over it.
the internet is not working. checked bandwidth. Done until Feb 17th or when we are in town at the library. Bob, wow that link to Holly’s question–I can see why my bandwidth is already done- we wrote alot lately. I have to rest ayways upon my medical massager’s request and she knows me too well and said flat ground versus rugged terrain if I get tempted-more details on my private area to avoid the scroll, scroll, scroll—have a good few weeks everyone.
Thanks Take Care
**
** EXACT LOCATION FOR AIR STUDY VIDEO…
** 20130630 161620 VLAT split 1 EP
Somewhere above… Elizabeth just posted the exact latitude/longitude
coordinates for where that only publicly released AIR STUDY video ( so far )
was actually taken.
I’m talking about this one with the “Granite Mountain… what’s your status?”
and “Are you with Granite Mountain right now?” queries in it…
20130630 161620 VLAT split 1 EP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WgErgCiYoo
>> On January 28, 2014 at 4:30 pm, Elizabeth said…
>>
>> The video was taken from the North side of the Hays Ranch Road in
>> People’s Valley (at 34 16.327 X 112 43.863). It would be USEFUL for
>> someone who is not me to think about and try to get a sense of the
>> DIRECTION in which the smoke was pushing, from the standpoint
>> of GM, so that we can get a sense of what Marsh et al was seeing,
>> if anything.
Thanks, Elizabeth!
It’s right where I thought it was… about the center along the road of that first
‘circular crop field’ just west of where Hays Ranch Road meets Highway 89
up in Peeples Valley. Even the little small ‘bent over’ orange road sign is there
in Google maps Street View right by the side of the road.
Those ‘circular crop field’ areas up there were being used for Helicopter staging
and is where the Ranger 58 Helibase was.
The actual DECIMAL coordinates are…
34.272127, -112.731050
The SMOKE that can be seen in this AIR STUDY video is definitely blowing
almost due south… but Steed/Marsh would certainly not have been able to
see this particular part of the fire from where they were, all the way down south.
This video was shot way up north in Peeples Valley.
PS: Do you have ANY plans to somehow publish that other AIR STUDY video
that supposedly has OPS2 Paul Musser trying to raise DIVS A Eric Marsh
on the radio?
Thank you!
BTW: I’m sure you figured it out… but for anyone else
viewing that video I failed to mention what might not
be obvious to all. The CAMERA is facing WEST as
this video is taken.
The Hays Ranch Road there in the video runs
due east-west up in Peeples Valley and the CAMERA
is filming in ‘zoom’ mode ( which distorts the distances )
and facing due WEST.
WTKTT, Calvin, and Elizabeth:
OK. Watching both that and the helmetcam video (which I’m currently downloading as I hadn’t before) with the sound turned off so I can focus on the visual information.
My first thought was that these aren’t the same vehicles, although they are similar. Although the helmetcam video is from an inmate crew, which probably means they are using USFS vehicles. But I don’t know about that.
The reason I think they aren’t the same vehicles is because in the helmetcam video, the ATM being towed, is partially covered by something red, and you don’t see that in the (for lack of a better term atm ) Elizabeth YouTube video.
On the other hand, I have ALWAYS, after having seen the media version of the helmetcam video and then learning it was from the Globe Inmate crew (which I think deserves a medal for risking their lives to do this), which was mostly staged at the Peeples Valley area, under the command of Structure 2 (i.e. Willis), wondered why in the WORLD did they end up at the SHRINE AREA??? That has NEVER EVER made ANY sense to me.
The timing of the Elizabeth video, at 4:1620, may make sense, though, in regard to the helmetcam video. I haven’t had time to map/gauge it. I don’t know where they were working before this.
I think this may be worth plotting out to see if the timing syncs. I have no idea what other possible things may be happening here.
But what we DO KNOW is that there was a (Badass, imo) Globe Type 2 Inmate Crew working in the Structure 2 Division, who somehow ended up in the Shrine Area, with those at least similar, I think, white FS pickup trucks. With at least one ATV on a trailer, and maybe two, risking their lives to get that critical video.
And if you haven’t seen that crew’s Memorial to the Granite Mountain Hotshots/June 30 video, you really should. Or we’re all just being analytical robots using them for our purposes without being human.
Yarnell Hill Fire 6/30/2013 – 7/9/2013. Globe Type II Crew
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWkM_2fa4k0&list=PLTErVrHH6uJja-ljtn7z9Q5Sz9WtCPGw1&index=50
My New Standard Disclaimer: This is my guess and assumption only…nothing about this post should be construed as truth about the incident.
Marti… you said above that you are not sure
where this “Globe Type II Crew” was during
the day. Just go to your own link you posted
just above and click on ‘4490red’ account.
Same crew shot FOUR other videos that day.
These weren’t posted to YouTube until early
October but they were found shortly after that.
Each of the exact locations for those four other
‘4490’ Globe Type II Crew’ videos has already
been absolutely determined.
Video 1 – They were staging in the morning in
the parking lot of the Yarnell Hill Fire assignment.
They thought ( at that time ) they might even
be ‘choppered in’ to the fire location they are
filming in the distance.
Videos 2 and 3 – Mid afternoon up in Peeples
Valley. They were assigned to Willis and he
had them just cutting brush around some
specific homes in the Model Creek Road area.
Video 4 – A VLAT drop shot in the parking lot of the
U-Store-It facility on Highway 89 just north of
town. If that is them heading south in the AIR
STUDY video… they might have gone straight
to this U-Store-It to ‘stage’ there like we see
them in this video 4 and never actually went
onto the Shrine road at all.
When I finally read this today, I thought, “I can’t believe you really wrote that because there’s no way the video was shot there near tat storage site!”
And now I see that pretty much everything you have written later assumes the Shrine location.
So, even tho this comment contains a big mistake, I think it still addresses one issue and underscores another.
I have often wondered where this crew re-staged after the Shrine event. I think it makes sense they re-staged here, not the Ranch House Restaurant.
I am still wondering wondering wondering, WHY IN THE WORLD were they at the Shrine area when they were?? There is absolutely no reason I can think of for them to have been there.
Namaste
Marti… the mistake I made above
was in actually declaring “this same
crew shot four other videos that day”.
We do NOT yet know if this really
WAS the same “Globe Type 2 Crew”
that shot the other four videos
sitting in 4490red’s Youtube account.
I do believe the crew that shot the
‘Helemet Cam’ video WAS, in fact,
headed out to the U-Store-It
facility just north of Shrine road
on Highway 89… after they
evacuated the Shrine area…
…but that STILL doesn’t mean
they are the same crew we see
shooting the VLAT drop video
that sits in 4490red’s Youtube
account.
They MIGHT be.
They also MIGHT be the crew
that we see heading south from
Peeples Valley at the start of
the AIR STUDY video.
None of those ‘dots’ have all
been fully connected yet with
either positive IDs on vehicles
or people seen in the videos.
Forgot to post the link.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgh_O9vcCyQ
Yarnell Hill Fire 6/30/2013. Globe Type II Crew.
“Staged at Yarnell Fire Dept. morning of 6/30/2013. 4th crew on scene. Granite Mountain can be heard on the radio calling Operations on Tac 1. Waiting to see if we were going to be choppered up on the mountain. Everyone was in good spirits that morning.”
It’s the same crew. Watch this one and then explain to me why it isn’t.
That’s the same radio guy riding shotgun in both. The guy with the helmet cam asks him if he should shoot some more video.
I think that’s the crew sup. And I think that’s why the last moments video was kept off of YouTube and sent to the SAIT. That guy knew EXACTLY what they had.
Marti… if you are talking about
the guy with the beard in the
passenger side of the vehicle
who says ‘STUUUPID’ as he
fools with the camera and tries
to shoot video in the Globe
Type II crew video shot in
the morning at the Yarnell
Hill Fire Station…
…and the guy with the beard
seen later in the Helmet-Cam
video standing in the road
and holding the portable
radio…
they are definitely NOT the
same individual.
Both have beards… but
totally different.
Guy in the video shot in
the morning has close-crop
beard and mustache.
Guy in the Helemet-cam
video has a longer beard
and NO mustache.
I still think they MIGHT be
the same ‘crew’ but those
two individuals are definitely
not the same person.
Marti… in the ‘helmet-cam’ video… after they leave the
parking lot of the St. Joseph Shrine and then stop
at their next location on Shrine road… a little farther
west… the camera pans back west and there is
clearly a USF ‘Shield’ logo on the door of the white
pickup seen at that moment.
Arizona State Forestry / US Forest Service.
Wait just a little longer… and just after that one FF
says “We’ve got to clone a mobile to hear what’s
going on”… and the helmet-cam guy goes to
retrieve a mobile from his truck and starts pushing
buttons on it… he puts the helmet onto the top
of his truck and we finally see him full-face for
a few frames.
He has still not been identified, as far as I know,
even though we have a close-up of his face.
I’m sorry. Typing too fast above. Meant to say
“When they stop at their next location on Shrine
road… a little farther EAST” ( Not west ).
Helemt-Cam video has them evacuating EAST
on Shrine road, not west.
Marti, please do not lump me in with the others. You are free to e-mail me privately with questions, but I want it to be very clear that WTKTT and others here do not represent me or my views. I am horrified by a lot of the speculation or conjecture that is taking place here. I think this discussion has gotten far, far off track, and it both saddens and concerns me.
Elizabeth,
It may help if you can be very specific about what you DO want.
Thus far, I know that you want more of us to listen to and report what we hear on the Air Study videos, but most of us only have access to the ONE that you have posted thus far. Our comments on that are scattered throughout this forum.
We’ve given you what we know as far as what phones and GPS devices we think were there at the deployment site.
And you’ve given us a lot of negative feedback on many of our posts. Generally, that feedback has fallen into two categories: 1) Too conjectural, or 2) Irrelevant.
So my questions for you are: What do you find relevant? What do you WANT us to work on? (And I’m not looking for a reply about listening to videos that we don’t have access to.) And my last question (which you can email me directly with the answer): What, exactly, is horrifying you and why?
A lot of us in the firefighting community ARE speculating about what could have caused them to make unsafe decisions, because we want a heads up that WE may encounter those very same factors this year. I’m not trying to punish anyone; I’m trying to figure out what human factors led to the death of 19 good people, some of whom were stronger, more experienced, and smarter than myself.
Reply to Marti Reed post on January 28, 2014 at 3:27 pm
>> Marti wrote…
>> Can you provide a link for that ( AIR STUDY video)? I’m getting lost.
Mr. Dougherty still hasn’t published any of these AIR STUDY videos and
Elizabeth has only published the one that has the “Granite Mountain…
what’s your status?” and the “Are you with Granite Mountain right now?”
queries in it.
The AIR STUDY video that supposedly captures OPS2 Paul Musser raising
DIVS A Eric Marsh on the radio still hasn’t been published publicly by ANYONE.
That only AIR STUDY video published so far is here…
20130630 161620 VLAT split 1 EP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WgErgCiYoo
I’m talking about this one:
Calving says somewhere up above:
“Video 20130630 (the one Neil/Maclean based their article on)…. At the very beginning of the video there is a convoy including two ATV/UTV beig pulled on trailers followed by an official truck without a trailer.
I believe these are the same three vehicles seen in the helmet cam video. Can anyone confirm this?”
Is there a link for this one anywhere? I was looking at the page called “Sources for the Neill/Maclean Yarnell Hill Fire analysis.” Is it one of those? I’m assuming Calving is looking at SOMETHING.
Yes. That is the one calvin was talking about.
It’s the link I just posted above.
Reply to calvin post on January 27, 2014 at 7:50 am
>> calvin wrote…
>> Could you provide coordinates for BR supt truck parking
>> per BR movement video?
The spot on the background map of the Blue Ridge GPS tracking video
that is labelled “BR Supt truck parking” is right where the east-west
Sesame Trail ( that leads out west to the old-grader ) meets the
north end of that series of clearings we’ve been calling the ‘Sesame Area’.
That would be exactly here…
34.231782, -112.773124
Thank You
Thank you from me too. Do you have any sense of time on that?
Time on what?
When they got their own BR Supt Truck out of there?
I believe that would be the ‘fast/quick’ UTV trip that the BR
GPS tracking shows starting at 1551… immediately after
Frisby got back from his aborted face-to-face in the UTV
and had already dropped Brendan off at the
GM Sup Truck.
What I actually believe happened at that moment is
that Frisby already knew it was all going south by
the time he finished dropping Brendan off. This even
matches Brendan’s SAIT interview when he says
that by the time he was dropped at the GM Supt
Truck… Frisby was now “in a big hurry”.
Firsby went straight back to where he first borrowed
the ATV from Brown right there on the cutover road…
then he told Brown to just get in the ATV… and the TWO
of them immediately went ( lickety-split ) out to
where the BR Supt truck was parked to get it the
heck out of there.
It would say it then had to be Frisby who exited the ATV
there and then drove the BR Supt truck out of there… because the GPS unit was physically on Brown and
we see it go right straight back to where this ‘quick trip’
started and where Brown was working with the BR
crew there on the cutover road.
I have no idea how Frisby got the BR Sup truck out
of there. Only a few possibilites.
1) Frisby drove it south through the Sesame area
and then on into Glen Ilah and out to Highway 89
via Lakewood drive ( same way Brendan exited
with the GM Sup truck ).
2) Once he was at Highway 89… Frisby either drove
it all the way north to the Shrine Youth Camp or he
just parked it right there at the Ranch House Restaurant
since he already knew that’s where everyone would
be evacuating to anyway.
3) He drove it south in the Sesame area… and then
simply drove it directly east to the Shrine Youth camp
right along that cutover road where the dozer
was already working.
Either way… I believe that’s when the BR Supt Truck
‘dust off’ took place. It’s that quick little trip shown to
that exact location starting at 1551 in the BR
tracking video.
NOTE: The actual ‘dust off’ of the two GM Crew Carriers
does appear to also be captured in the BR tracking, but
not for another 10 or 15 minutes after they got their
own BR Supt truck the heck out the Sesame area.
FOLLOWUP: The actual ‘dust off’ ( retrieval ) of
the GM crew carriers is, in fact, clearly seen and
timestamped in the BR GPS tracking video.
It happened starting at 1615 and ended at 1625.
The GM Crew Carriers ( only ) were evacuated
at this time straight over to the BR staging area
at the Youth Camp over on Shrine Road…
because those 2 GM Crew Carriers are seen in
the BR evacuation convoy VIDEO when they left
the Youth Camp and ‘convoyed’ down to the
Ranch House Restaurant, arriving at 1643.
Brendan had left the ‘Sesame Area’ (SA) alone
in the GM Supervisor Truck much earlier than when
the GM Crew Carriers were ‘fetched’. He did
not ‘wait there’ for any BR crew to return for the GM
Carriers after he was dropped off by Frisby.
Brendan left the Sesame Area (alone) in the GM
Supt truck almost right away and went south,
towards Glen Ilah, and out to Highway 89 via
Lakewood Drive.
NOTE: It’s not known where Brendan really
went after that… but it’s possible he simply
drove the paved roads all the way around the
long way up north to where the BR vehicles
already were at the Youth Camp on Shrine Road.
Brendan’s own photographs show him headed
in the general direction on Highway 89 at 1602.
See a LONG post down below detailing all the
BR GPS tracking from 1510 to 1643.
Here’s a cut from that breakdown showing just
the GM Crew Carrier ‘dust off’ trip…
NOTE: CT means ‘Cutover Trail’… that dirt road
that connected the Shrine Road Youth Camp
to the Sesame Area (SA) on an east-west line.
** START OF TRIP TO MOVE GM CARRIERS
1616 – WEST on CT. Start trip to fetch GM Carriers
1617 – WEST on CT towards GM Crew Carriers
1618 – WEST on CT towards GM Crew Carriers
1619 – NORTH in SA towards GM Crew Carriers
1620 – ARRIVAL at the GM Crew Carrier parking
1621 – Immediately headed back SOUTH again
1622 – More travel SOUTH in SA, EAST on CT
1623 – Still heading EAST on CT
1624 – Arrival back where CT meets Shrine road
1625 – Arrival back where BR vehicles are parked
at Shrine Road Youth Camp
** END OF TRIP TO MOVE GM CARRIERS
It would be nice to get the data from Caldwell’s GPS. Is it retrievable even if the unit was totally destroyed? Was it his personal one or did it belong to PFD?
Mr. Powers, Would it be possible that is how the ASAIT determined the route GM traveled?
What I was hearing from I think Marti that the GPS was in the site after the SAIT went thru and has disappeared or is not listed in the personal items list. As far as I know no one said anything about a GPS with GM. So we are back in the guessing game as to where it is now. Or if they had a number to find the tracking that day, It would be the last tracking it did.
Mr P.
Holly asked you a question over at Wildfire Today
I’ve been banned by BILL. He wont answer my email questions. Tell her to come on here.
I’m pretty sure Holly is on here regularly, such that I am surprised that she is not just asking Bob her questions here….
What is she asking I looked but could not find a question from her I have no problem answering her questions.
I truly doubt Holly checks this area much at all. Maybe peaked at it (maybe) after her article came out but I do not find her to be a person to be hanging here to look for questions; she stands by what she wrote with having her advisor at her side, author, John MacLean. She has her own serious notes of the fire. However last week I did ask her about what she meant by hand line because someone here asked so I did get an email from her-
see:
Thu, Jan 23, 2014 at 12:42 PM
Joy, Here are 3 references to handline. The handline on the Yarnell fire is the line we scouted out with the cuttings, where I found the shrimp shell. Hope this helps, H.
===================
FIRELINE: The part of a control line that is scraped or dug to mineral soil. A handline is a fireline that is constructed with hand tools. The idea is to create a break in fuel to stop the spread of the fire.
==================
1. From ADOSH WFA Report: Handline – Fireline constructed with hand tools.
*********************************************************************************************************
2. Handline Construction
This graphic illustrates handline constructed in brush. Here we are concerned about how wide the fireline needs to be. If fuel concentrations are reduced near the line, the actual fireline to mineral soil can be relatively narrow, 1- to 3-feet wide. Reducing the amount of fuels near the line, thus reducing fire intensity, is a reasonable practice and is generally preferred to wide firelines cut to mineral soil. Line construction is generally easier, and less environmental damage is done to the site. ***********************************3. SEE ALSO: http://wildfiretoday.com/2013/07/22/new-training-video-for-handline-construction/
====================
The ASAIT is Us. the SAIT said nothing about a GPS with GM.
OK, now that I have scrolled (yes, I agree, Joy, the constant scrolling thing is a PITA, all things considered) up almost fifteen miles to find this comment. I want to clarify what I know.
When I first saw the photo of Robert Caldwell’s radio (number 13) in a pile of stuff located a little bit outside of the actual Deployment Site (and which I associated with him via the Body Map), I saw this rectangular plastic object. At first I thought, “Is that a smartphone?” because, being probably the last digital photographer on the planet without a smartphone, I don’t really know what they all look like.
I never did a “List” of the “Personal Objects,” numbered and un-numbered that were photographed on the Deployment Site. For a variety of reasons.
The next thing that happened was that Calvin saw a GPS on Robert Caldwell in a MacKenzie photograph from the Doce Fire, as I recall, but I may be wrong here–it might have been on this fire. And the next thing that happened was that WTKTT spotted that same plastic-looking rectangular thing, that I had seen near Caldwell’s radio and didn’t know what it was but knew it was SOMETHING.
The next thing that happened was the Sitta didn’t think it was a GPS unit. Sitta thought it might be a water bottle. I didn’t say anything, but I didn’t think that THING was big enough to be a water bottle. And I have seen A LOT of water bottles on this site. And I thought that THING looked like a small rectangular electronic device of some kind.
The SAIT did their visual inspection of the site. Some of them took SOME photographs of the site. But, after having looked at all their photographs, I believe they basically relied on the YCSO photographs to be the official documentation of it. Some of Okon’s photographs are more detailed than those of the YCSO. But only some. The YCSO photos are a whole. SAIT’s photographs are a collection of pieces.
The first photographs during the inspection were of the shelters. Before the shelters were removed, many of the radios were also photographed. Then the shelters were removed. Then some more radios were found. Then those radios were removed. Then a number of personal objects were photographed and removed.
All the items that were removed were taken by YCSO to YCSO, because the SAIT did’t have the resources to deal with them.
After that, Prescott Fire Department was authorized to enter the site and gather up whatever was left and take it to PFD.
There are a number of cellphones and at least one GPS unit MIA. At one point, Chris MacKenzie’s camera was also MIA.
Thanks Marti.
That all matches what happened except
calvin did, in fact, find this GPS unit on
BOTH fires at once. When he first reported
seeing it… he had already verified it
being on Caldwell’s upper right-front pack
strap at BOTH fires.
The Jume 30 ( morning ) photo was
a perfect ‘frontal’ shot of it.
The Doce fire photo was a perfect
‘profile’ shot of it… magically caught
in full sunlight between Caldwell’s head
and his knee as he was tying his boot.
I remember that because with the TWO
photos calvin found… I was able to
identify it immediately as a Garmin
Oregon 450 handheld GPS. No question.
About 30 minutes after that… I seemed
to see it there in that YCSO site photo.
It’s not a water bottle. No way.
Zoom down on it, then zoom back, and
look at the radio for an actual SIZE
comparison.
That electronic device half-buried in
the dirt is only about half the size
of the Bendix King radio in the same photo.
That’s exactly the size the Oregon
450 should be.
Copy. Agree.
Reply to Bob Powers post on January 28, 2014 at 10:47 am
>> Mr Powers said…
>> It would be nice to get the data from Caldwell’s GPS.
>> Is it retrievable even if the unit was totally destroyed?
That, of course, all depends… but generally YES.
Modern EPROMS and EPRAMS can withstand a LOT
of heat and still be readable even if they have to be
lifted off the circuit board(s)…
…but depending on the damage it might take a VERY special
effort to recover the data.
Keep in mind… these same GPS chipsets are standard
in all modern airplane flight recorders.
If it is ever found… and whatever shape it is in… I can assure
you the people at the NTSB know how to get the data back.
>> Was it his personal one or did it belong to PFD?
I posted about this earlier. I personally believe it was the
property of PFD because in two of Christopher MacKenzie’s
Canon Powershot photos from the Doce fire… it is Captain
Jesse Steed wearing the Garmin Oregon 450 GPS unit,
and not Robert Caldwell.
In those photos from the Doce fire… Captain Steed is wearing
the Oregon 450 in the exact same spot we see Caldwell
wearing it on June 30. Clipped to his upper left-front pack strap.
Followup… if that really is the Oregon 450 GPS unit
just lying half-buried in the dirt there in the DP site
photograph… then it already appears to be totally
undamaged. No signs of any ‘melting’ even on the
outer plastic casing.
It’s just lying there. Covered with dirt.
Waiting to be found.
That whole site with good investigators should have combed it with a fine tooth comb before leaving it Just another WTF moment for me.
They may have left some watches and
other things buried in the dirt only for some
poor widow visiting the site to uncover
with her foot ( already documented as
having happened and that is just totally
irresponsible )…
…but whatever that electronic device is
lying in the dirt there ( it’s not a smartphone
and it’s not a camera ) would have been
IMPOSSIBLE to not see even if it had
to wait for the final ‘comb-through’
performed by the Prescott Fire Department.
Someone found it.
Someone has it.
So it is also possible that some crews are carring these which would be a good thing. PFD must have known this if it was purchased by the city. And we are still left with where it is at right now. Another area to ask WILLIS for info.
Yes. Also… correction for above. Minor thing…
I said that both Caldwell ( on June 30 ) and
Steed ( at Doce fire ) had the Oregon 450
clipped to their upper left-front pack strap.
Wrong. In both cases… it is clipped to their
own upper-RIGHT front pack strap.
Minor detail. The photo of Caldwell at the Doce fire where he has the GPS, Caldwell is also wearing the red (Captain?) hat (I think maybe Marsh was DivS then?), which would explain why another GMH would be promoted to Captain. Fast forward to 6/30. Marsh is assigned Div S after in the field (possibly away from crew), and once again a GHM steps up to Captain (Caldwell?) and takes the GPS again (but not the red hat)
Exactly. There ARE pictures from the
Doce fire ( taken on different days )
that alternately show Caldwell and
Steed wearing the same Oregon 450
GPS unit. That’s why I think that piece
of gear belonged to PFD and not
any one person.
Could be just like Blue Ridge.
Frisby was not wearing their
GPS unit… Brown was. So it may
be an unspoken rule. GPS units
travel with ‘Captains’.
The explanation for Caldwell being
automatically bumped up to Captain
on June 30 ( and automatically
becoming the one who should be
wearing the Oregon 450 )…
…but him NOT being photographed
with a ‘red helmet’ that day…
…is probably pretty simple.
Unlike the Doce fire… when they
set out for work that morning…
they had NO IDEA that Marsh
was going to be asked to be
DIVS A that day.
So Caldwell didn’t leave
Prescott with a red helmet.
He only had the black one that day.
Like I tell Sonny…if you got a ? than ask…Hey Bob, than go ahead and ask Willis for more information; [email protected]. Doubt he peaks here. He has answered my questions if I have any always. How many people here have asked him something by phone, email or snail mail and got no reply?
Copy. I can’t imagine he would ever answer MY question, though.
give it a try, Marti-
Bob Powers, et al~
I’ve been out trail-riding on the intertubes today, googling Blue Ridge Hotshots, and I stumbled across something really interesting.
It’s a conversation on RadioReference.com Forums.
Folks are talking about having read the SAIR and the radio problems.
I found it extremely interesting to read how people with serious radio expertise would discuss this issue.
Towards the second half of the thread, someone with the moniker Exsmokey posts a series of detailed comments about radio systems and protocols in wildland fire-fighting (including Yarnell) that I found extremely informative, and, I think, quite relevant to some of what we have been discussing. In one of his posts, he writes, “Since I started in the wildland fire business in 1974 firefighting has become increasingly dangerous and complex.” So I guess he has some history.
This is an example of the kind of stuff he is writing:
“As other posts have mentioned the report glossed over this issue and did not discuss the “tone guard” issue enough. The national wildland communications system should adopt the National Wildfire Coordinating Group’s (NWCG) 16 standard tones, both by frequency and numbering order. These same tones should be used on local agency VHF radio systems. When I look at the channel plans of the BLM and state forestry agencies and see a hodgepodge of tones and tone numbers I shake my head. Why should 110.9, tone 1 in the standard 16 be labeled as tone 5 by some agencies? Why should the Nevada Division of Forestry be using 77.0 Hz to access some of their repeaters. This is a tone not in the standard 16.”
Another one of his comments, I thought of first in response to your comment. He writes, “One of the central issues identified was the miscommunication about what ranch and two track road the crew was on. In the rapidly changing situation that occurs in initial attack and the beginning stages of extended attack confusion results along with an incredible amount of essential communications on tactical frequencies. I’ve experienced this dozens of times and don’t know what can be done to address this.
All fire crews (hand crews, engines, patrols) carry GPS units and it is a shame the technology could not be used to locate the crew so a retardant drop could not be made right on top of them. I don’t know if this was possible on this day due to smoke and wind. I don’t know if dropping on a GPS location when smoke obscures the ground is possible or effective.”
So he seems to be saying that all fire crews carry GPS units. That would mean, I would think, the units would not be personal units but crew units. (PFD?)
And on another note, the last comment in this thread, by another member, includes this:
“One of the biggest problems I have seen as a COMT on some of the largest and smallest fires in the country over the last 20 years, is that ‘Everyone knows how to use a radio’ and few in the fire community want to hear what the Comms unit has to say. All they want to hear is ‘we will support the plan’.
My estimate is that 98% of the guys and gals on the line have no idea what the last channel in their radio is for. You will see it on the 205 as Air Guard. Most have been told not to use it. There was the open channel to communicate to the air assets. This is precisely what that channel is for and why it is in the last position on the channel knob (I know some of the newer radios don’t have a channel knob that has stops, this is a safety issue in my book).”
Sound familiar, anybody?
Here’s the link:
“Prescott, AZ – Radio communications investigated for death of 19 firefighters”
http://tinyurl.com/lxfqkn3
Another clue about Exsmokey:
“I started my Forest Service career on the Kaibab National Forest and I’m pleased to see they are doing a super job letting many fires burn and are accomplishing a lot of prescribed burning. Every National Forest that has fire dependent ecosystems should do as well.”
I’m reading him a second time. This guy definitely knows what he’s talking about.
He is a communications specialist either a radio fixer or a Dispatcher with a solid radio background. Also can RTS shed any light on crews carrying GPS systems early in our discussions that was a recommendation for all line personnel. Is it already in use and why was that not an investigation point in the SAIT?
Bob and All,
It’s been my experience that ALL Crews, Hot Shots and Type II, carry GPS units, either personal or provided by their employers.
Why did the SAIT not look hard for that GPS unit it would have helped with all there time frames. another WTF min. And the GPS is a good thing I hope it is nation wide.
Bob,
As I said way back somewhere – they first establish a conclusion then find the “facts” to fit that conclusion which includes selective interviews, selective evidene, and such AS LONG AS IT FITS THEIR
And most Smart Phones have GPS capabilities with free or fairly inexpensive Apps. You know all about those, right?
FITS THEIR PRE-ESTABLISHED CONCLUSION.
I was going to reply but could again find no words to match my feelings. sad state of affairs.
I agree.
I am seriously not looking for a “magical answer.”
But I seriously believe something smells, and that leads me to believe there’s a reason why that is the case.
I would love it if someone could prove me wrong
My New Standard Disclaimer: This is my guess and assumption only…nothing about this post should be construed as truth about the incident.
Thank you!
Interesting points from Exsmokey. I confess, I considered Air Guard something of a waste of a channel before this year. I since learned otherwise!
On the other hand, I absolutely hate the practice of putting the tone guards in their own special order. I prefer matching them to the channel/repeater that uses them as much as possible. In my experience, the vast majority of firefighters from rural areas (even very experienced ones) don’t have a clue what they do or how to use them. And when you have to train people who aren’t even used to BK radios, it’s a total nightmare.
From reading the Aviation Dispatch logs (such torture!!!) yesterday, I definitely got the impression there were very serious issues with getting the “tone guards” set accurately on a number of planes and helicopters. IA don’t know if that was experienced as a general pita that goes along with doing this, but some of the comments in those logs sounded pretty irritated.
And also with some of the ground crews, not to mention Marquez.
When I read exSmokey’s comments, in which he said there is a better way, I thought if there is it makes sense to fix that.
Mike,
I want to expound on something you said on the weather. “mike on January 27, 2014 at 10:28 pm said: …. That is why you do not rely on weather forecasts, ….”
We actually do tend to rely pretty heavily on weather forecasts because it’s our first Fire Order for one, and it’s covered in two of the Watch Outs (14 and 15). We base actions on the current and expected fire behavior (Fire Order 3) which is based on the weather. It appears that Marsh and the GMHS did NOT do so.
We listen to and/or read the fire weather and/or spot weather forecasts which are USUALLY pretty accurate. We meet with the Incident Meteorologist (IMET) when available. We now can monitor mobile devices to see satellite and radar imagery. In fact, several Crews on different fires in AZ from the same lightning bust that started the YHF, monitored thunderstorms on their Smart Phones using NOAA Satallite Infrared Imagery. We also monitor NOAA weather on our radios that broadcast 24/7 on the local weather. The main one is 162.550, however, there are more localized ones as shown in the link below. This is national.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/abq/?n=wxradio
I posted this awhile back regarding Watch Out #4 – “Unfamiliar with WEATHER and LOCAL FACTORS influencing fire behavior” (EMPHASIS ADDED). This one is usually for those of us that travel to another area to fight fire, so we get with ‘the locals’ to get the skinny on what is particular to their area.
This was the GMHS backyard, this was their turf! They were on the Doce Fire about a week before in basically the same weather and fuel type! The thunderstorm, well monitored and predicted and notified of, was nothing but a COMMON Southwestern thunderstorm. It was NOT an anomoly.
As I said before, it’s as if Marsh and the GMHS were rookies, unfamiliar with local factors IN THEIR OWN BACKYARD.They KNEW or SHOULD HAVE KNOWN BETTER.
And McDonough was giving them weather at his lookout spot Hourly updates. That should have given them some Idea of the on the fire weather were they really paying attention.
than again Bob Powers, Brendan and myself thought the fire behavior was moving on the slow side when in actuality Sonny said let’s get the hell out of here way before 3-4pm so even though firefighters take risk, answer me why they did not go to the saddle than ride the top of the boulder hill that divides the Sesame Area and State Land where they died that would keep the fire in sight as well as scale boulders versus dropping into the most dense vegetation. Sonny showed the correct path option for that fire yet the men left too late. I bet Brendan and many that was on that fire were shocked how that fire was moving in the way it was and both Brendan and I saw it as slow yet Sonny saw it as dangerous. I wish anyone who is permitted on the restricted state land and permitted to legally take photos would do so for that whole boulder hill looking for evidence of any kind.
Joy and Sonny
If you have time pull up the Rattle Snake Memorial Mendocino National Forest.
It is a beautiful and Well built site.
A rock wall with a picture of all 15 fire fighters and it looks on the hill at the Metal crosses It is on federal land but they had to go thru some hoops to put it in. I hope some day Granit Mountain has one.
as I have hiked this area for about a decade-about half way down Yarnell Hill (Weaver Mountains) there is a white elephant painted on the rocks. There is mostly mystery surrounding this apparition involving many stories told by folks who are “right” in their own truths and the ironic part it parrallels this tragedy for that elephant is the way up to reach the legal way to get a mountain top view of the Granite Mountain Hotshots deployment area- a mystery in itself as well.
Hiker beware- many rattlers on that hill. Snakeboots advised or snake stick. I have seen many kind in that area. As well as cats and other wildlife but an abundance of snakes so it may be another odd thing because you mentioned Rattle Snake Memorial Mendocino National Forest and I find the very legal way to see the men is okay to label that Rattlesnake Hill. Bob, I hope something is done decent as well. Probably best way is to take away some of Maughans’ agricultural land so people are not trafficking neither Yarnell streets or Peeples Valley but over by Snyder’s USTOW-IT area where the white fence is—make a road in to the old grader and make parking over there (sorry Maughan for suggesting your land but you own about what 150,000 acres here in Arizona) If they had a parking lot there than people can go see the flag area, anchor point, helispot. I do not think it is logical to use the Glen Ilah area or the side streets in Yarnell to go out that way.
RTS –
When I said do not rely on forecasts, I did not mean do not use them. But you cannot accept them as gospel. You have to be prepared for them to be wrong. The good news is if you follow the rules, then you will be prepared when forecasts are in fact wrong.
Marsh may have believed the fire was going to continue to the southeast. He was not prepared when it switched directions. Why – he was not following the rules.
Mike,
AND he wasn’t watching the smoke column. It was very apparent to those that were paying attention and had LOOKOUTS that the northern outflow winds were influencing the fire behavior.
That’s what the BRHS were focused on to rally The Shrine not-paying-attention resources and the clueless citizens and hustle them up to get moving to safety. They said it was most apparent watching the smoke column stand up and then tilt south, then bent over and dropped right down into the Yarnell basin.
So, yes, Marsh was NOT following The Rules because he had NO designated LOOKOUT and did NOT “Base all actions on current and EXPECTED ire behavior.”
Marti– Maybe you caught WTNTT time frame on the ATV/GPS.
1529-1550 GPS stays in one area
This would be the time frame of Frisby pickup of McDonough in route to the meeting a round trip of 20 min.
A pick up at ruffley 1540 and cancel the meeting with Marsh.
Marsh starts the move off the meeting spot.
Frisby takes McDonough back to Supt. Truck and goes to get drivers. 1551
I have a question concerning the flight records on page 101 of SAIR.
Does the stop time assigned to each flight indicate when all the retardant or water is dumped, or the actual time the aircraft lands?
The reason I am asking is this. The VLAT video taken at 1616 shows a vlat making a drop, and it seems that he says that the vlat has 2000g left. According to the flight records vlat 910 carrying 11,060g stops at 1542 and the next vlat (chronologically) is t911 carrying 10743g has a stop time of 1651.
Thanks in advance for any information regarding this.
Calvin~
When I looked at the flight records about four days ago, and I’m not looking at them now just remembering, it appeared to me they were about landings and take-offs. I don’t know if my response really answers your question.
Marti, That is exactly the specific answer I was asking for. Are you sure about that? No offense!
I don’t know if you’ll see this, and sorry for not responding sooner, but I decided to put this on the back burner, until I finished reviewing these logs and the Dispatch Logs and everything else I could find involving the aerial stuff yesterday (which just ended up with leaving me more confused than ever about what I was trying to find).
But this, yes, I think is pretty simple, relatively. I think this is a pretty quick and dirty logging of what the planes are taking off with, which is easy for them to do. I think the stop time just documents when their flight ends. They don’t make any attempt, in these logs, to include a measurement of what they are carrying when they land.
Video 20130630 (the one Neil/Maclean based their article on)…. At the very beginning of the video there is a convoy including two ATV/UTV beig pulled on trailers followed by an official truck without a trailer.
I believe these are the same three vehicles seen in the helmet cam video. Can anyone confirm this?
Good eye, calvin ( as usual ).
I can’t verify quite yet those those are the ‘helmet-cam’
crew… but they are definitely fire people and the are
definitely headed for Yarnell.
SIDENOTE: I’ve been trying to identify the exact location
of the cameraman in this video since the moment it
was available publicly… but it’s a tough one.
It is definitely up north near Peeples Valley and the ICP,
and I believe it is actually right there near where they
were using those large ‘circular’ fields by Highway 89
for the Helicopter staging ( Ranger 58 Helibase, etc. ).
Near the end of the video… the camera pans right and you
see a lime-green trailer ( same lime-green fire people us )
on the side of the road and what appears to be a temporary
orange aviation-style wind-sock set up and flapping in
the breeze.
I will nail the exact location down shortly. Stay tuned.
Also…
At +0:52 there is another vehicle that is seen emerging
from one of the side roads in the distance that I also believe
ends up in photos take at the Ranch House Restaurant
just 30 minutes later circa 4:46. That same white extended
cab pickup truck is also seen coming back onto the
highway again at +1:32. Hard to tell… but Willis was known
to have been driving a white extended cab pickup and
was also known to be up around that area at that time.
If you give me the link, I can give you the lat/long. I have them for most of the videos. (Meaning, many actually came with them, I now realize.)
Elizabeth… we are talking about just the only
AIR STUDY video that has appeared in
public ( the only one you posted to Youtube ).
It is here…
20130630 161620 VLAT split 1 EP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WgErgCiYoo
If you really do have exact lat/long for any/all
of the videos taken… it would certainly
save me some time detemining where they
were taken.
Thanks in advance.
PS: Do you have ANY plans to somehow publish
that other AIR STUDY video that supposedly has
OPS2 Paul Musser trying to raise DIVS A Eric
Marsh on the radio?
I’d love to put my ears on that one.
Elizabeth… an alternative suggestion.
If you really do have exact lat/long for these AIR
STUDY videos you have… then you could just
add that to the ‘description’ on YouTube if/when
you publish one so that anyone can see exactly
where it was taken.
Can you provide a link for that? I’m getting lost.
Mr. Dougherty still hasn’t published any of these AIR STUDY
videos and Elizabeth has only published one. The one
that has the “Granite Mountain… what’s your status?”
and the “Are you with Granite Mountain right now?”
queries in it.
The AIR STUDY video that supposedly captures OPS2
Paul Musser raising DIVS A Eric Marsh on the radio
still hasn’t been published publicly by ANYONE.
That only AIR STUDY video published so far is here…
20130630 161620 VLAT split 1 EP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WgErgCiYoo
The video was taken from the North side of the Hays Ranch Road in People’s Valley (at 34 16.327 X 112 43.863). It would be USEFUL for someone who is not me to think about and try to get a sense of the DIRECTION in which the smoke was pushing, from the standpoint of GM, so that we can get a sense of what Marsh et al was seeing, if anything.
Super. Thanks, Elizabeth.
It’s right where I thought it was… about the
center along the road of that first ‘circular
crop field’ just west of where Hays Ranch
Road meets Highway 89 up in Peeples
Valley. Even the little small ‘bent over’
orange road sign is there in Google maps
Street View right by the side of the road.
Those ‘circular crop field’ areas up there
were being used for Helicopter staging
and is where the Ranger 58 Helibase was.
The actual DECIMAL coordinates are…
34.272127, -112.731050
The SMOKE that can be seen in this
AIR STUDY video is definitely blowing
almost due south… but Steed/Marsh
would certainly not have been able to
see this particular part of the fire from
where they were, all the way down south.
This video was shot way up in
Peeples Valley.
PS: Do you have ANY plans to somehow
publish that other AIR STUDY video that
supposedly has OPS2 Paul Musser trying
to raise DIVS A Eric Marsh on the radio?
I hope you see my comment somewhere WAY down below.
The image attributed to Grant McKee that appeared in the GQ article is actually image 2733 from Mackenzie’s cell phone, just for clarity
Thank you, Calvin! I’ve been wondering if we’ve seen any photos from McKee’s phone, and relatedly, if there *are* any photos from his phone.
So now we *know* he had a phone (#320, sent to ACTIC), but if anything was recovered from it, we haven’t seen it.
Sitta… I believe you, yourself first posted the following
email from Randy Okon ( SAIT )… but it bears repeating
here. It looks like Mckee’s phone might be one of the
ones that was (quote) “too damaged to gather info from”.
NOTE: What is still confusing about this email from
Randy Okon to Richa Wilson is that at the same time
he’s saying he just received ‘sets of data’ from an
official law enforcement agency… he is also still
GUESSING about who those data sets belong to.
I find it hard to believe that once the police were
able to access the data on ANY device… that they
would not have also been able to quickly identify the
owner of the device ( from standard smartphone Owner
Information Block (OIB), SIP/SIM records, onboard call
history logs, etc. ) and pass that information along as well.
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/npuqepyl3oyopve/jVrMjVhreL/WadeParkerPhotoAndText.pdf
From: Randy Okon
To: Wilson, Richa -FS
Subject: Re: Cell phones
Date: Thursday, August 08, 2013 9:51:02 AM
I just yesterday received the last of the sets of phone data
that is recoverable. This came from ADPS in Phoenix.
This gives us three sets of new phone data.
These phones are thought to be Carter, Caldwell, and the
last one we will just call Casio C781. the two remaining
phones that were sent to ADPS by YCSO were to
damaged to gather info from .
ROkon
This is a question for all of you, but particularly John Dougherty:
I sense we’ve been getting frustrated lately, and tripping over our own feet here, because we are trying to squeeze our communications into an inadequate format.
I suggest we’d be happier and more productive if we could port these discussions over to a place like Basecamp. https://basecamp.com/
We could keep track of discussions under separate topics, such as:
Cell Phones
Time Stamping
BR GPS
We could also post documents, and THEN discuss them underneath, such as:
Maps (showing where we put lunch spot, rest spot, meeting spot, DZ)
KMZ files for Google Earth (so coordinates can be entered and saved ONE time
List of FOIA materials and their links.
Basecamp is searchable and documents there are taggable. It is possible to control who gets messages (who can see content) if this is desired.
Basecamp can be inexpensive ($20/month, first two months free). If someone like John Dougherty creates the project there, those of us who need to remain anonymous can join in safely (though we may need to create new email addresses first).
I sense that many of us are at the end of our ropes, but I feel that there is more work to be done. If we’re not fighting our finite memories and chaos on a tool that currently hinders us (as it brings us together), some of us might last longer, and I’m sure we’ll be more productive.
Thoughts?
I appreciate simplicity. Thanks for the suggestion Sitta
or John Dougherty can make separate links doing that same idea. I agree. It would be nice to have different links for the areas you are focused on versus scroll, scroll, scroll because you catch things on another topic when you are trying to complete your task at hand. good idea.
I have to say, I’m REALLY with you on this. Trying to do this this way is just getting excruciatingly painful and unwieldy, and a BIG reason why I’m working on retiring from doing this. Seriously.
Although, I have to admit, the idea of shelling out another $20 a month to do this is a bit precarious for me right now, since I’m also shelling out another $50 month to use the Adobe Suite (which I haven’t had time to use in the past two months because of this).
So I’m standing here right now, about halfway between, “yes let’s do this” and “my official retirement date from being the resident camp digital photography analyst (which apparently doesn’t seem that relevant to some people anyway) is February 1, for my own sanity.”
hopefully you will be one of those retired folks who get rewired or refired and come back as the volunteer part time pop-in to touch base if you retire Feb 1st-
Joy~
Thank you for what you said here and I just want you to know your project regarding determining who those two people are on that ridge just down from where the helicopter came in an hour later and picked up those bags is still on my “before I retire” to-do list. Seriously.
I have approached it from several angles, and none of them quite fit together. And I would really like to identify what’s going on there.
One of the first things I noticed, when I zoomed in, and added a bunch of saturation, was that I didn’t see a red helmet. I saw two black ones. What I also saw was that that the two men looked outfitted similarly. So, at that point, I wondered, are these just two Granite Mountain Hotshots?
Then I looked at your pix of the GMHS hiking in, which were taken so much later (even if I haven’t been able to get a fixed timestamp on your photos because I need info from you that I haven’t gotten and still would like to get) and thought, no way could that be GMHS because they came in so much later.
So then, in convo’s with Bob Powers about helitac crews, we thought they may be helitac crews, related to the pick-up of the stuff that was left there from the night before, when a crew was left there and then picked up in the morning. Which I think could be the case.
Then, in recently reading the SAIR, there was mention of one person of that crew, who may have been there when Eric was there. So then I thought, hmmm, maybe that’s what’s going on. But that clashes with my not being able to SEE Eric’s red helmet and the fact that the two men look dressed relatively alike.
Half of me thinks “This is probably not THAT important in the overall scheme of things, it’s all probably related to the picking up of the residual stuff and crew left up there from the night before.”
I actually don’t believe there is much here that has all that much to do with the question Elizabeth keeps calling us back to, that I believe NONE of us has ever left behind, which is WHY???
On the other hand, given everything that so chaotically and dangerously happened on this day and on this fire, to the extent that it’s probably a major miracle that only 19 people died on it, and given the fact that so much documentation/evidence has been NOT documented, I think it needs to be documented what was happening here, even though there are some who might believe this is only just another “rabbit hole.”
I mean I’ve read all kinds of dispatch logs, air dispatch logs, lots of really detailed stuff, and nowhere have I found (and if someone would like to point me to it, I would love that) anything anywhere related to this operation in which a crew and things associated with them were removed from that spot by a helicopter.
So what I am saying is that, even if I retire in some way, I intend to keep working on both this question and I intend to get back with you to get what I need in order to get a more accurate reading of you camera’s timestamps, because I think it’s really important in this whole thing to do that.
It looks like this is dead in the water anyway, but just FYI — the $20 – $50 / month fee is just for the host, not all the users. (I agree, it’s a lot for one person, but not much for a corporate entity or whole project.)
I confess that I’ve never seriously used it, but my daughter, who is in her final semester of getting her Masters Degree from the University of Michigan in Urban/Public Planning, says to me that everything they do, in that entire graduate department, is via Google+.
Do you have any thoughts on that?
I’ve considered trying Google+ (or Google Docs, I don’t know the specifics) for sharing timeline docs or kmz files.
One of the benefits of using a Google+ ‘Dropbox’
for storing photos is that THEIR display interface
also automatically displays the basic EXIF
metadata contained withing the photograph.
It’s not a long list… but it’s the essential stuff
( if present ) like ‘Creation date’, ‘Modification
date’, Shutter settings, stuff like that.
I wish the Dropbox that Mr. Dougherty chose
also had that ‘feature’. Would save a lot of time.
Reply to calvin post on January 21, 2014 at 7:55 am
>> calvin said…
>>
>> Page 23 SAIR…. figure 9 shows a photo that was TEXTED at 1604 by
>> Wade Parker. I believe this picture correlates with the position Wade
>> Parker is sitting in in the images 0889, 2735 and 2736 and the videos 0888
>> and 0891. BOTH vides by Mackenzies camera also show Wade Parker
>> (my opinion)
>>
>> Video 0888… At the very beginning of this video Wade Parker has a phone
>> (I think) in his hand. I am not sure what he is doing, but I would think it has
>> something to do with the photo that he texted. The roll of white tape is visible.
I think you are spot on, calvin… ESPECIALLY the note you make that the
accepted 1604 ( 4:04 PM ) timestamp on this picture from Wade Parker is
( and has always been ) simply the time that he TEXTED that photo…and
not the time he actually TOOK it.
I have checked the ‘original’ for this one-and-only picture we have attributed
to Wade Parker and there is no metadata whatsoever in that picture that
the SAIT was working with. That means it was NOT actually ‘recovered’
from Wade’s device. All the SAIT had to work with was a ‘copy’ of the
photo as it arrived on his mother’s device… at 4:04 PM, June 30, 2012.
I believe you are 100 percent correct that what we actually SEE Wade
doing in the videos is texting this very same photo ( which he had already
taken even prior to the videos ) to his mother.
So basing the TIME that they all ‘gaggled up’ and left that resting spot
to head south on the timestamp of the Parker photo ( which is what
I believe the SAIT did ) could still be problematic.
We do NOT know exactly WHEN Wade took that picture.
We ONLY know when it arrived on is Mother’s device ( 4:04 PM ).
Even if Wade had sent it at 4:03… there is latency involved in every
cell network and it still could have taken more than a full minute for
it to ‘arrive’ on his Mother’s device. Maybe even 2 or 3 minutes.
It is actually possible that this Wade Parker picture ( which even the
LA Times seems to have mistakenly labelled ‘the last picture taken by
the Granite Mountain Hotshots’ ) could have actually been the FIRST
picture taken when they arrived at this 4:00 PM resting place.
Wade *might* have taken the first picture out of anyone arriving at that
spot, and it simply took him a few minutes to even get around to texting
it to his mother.
WTKTT. I do not think Parker is texting his picture out in that video. I actually think he texts it in the same period pictures 0885, 0886 and 0887 are taken
WTKTT… in my mind, it all has to do with the pair of clear safety glasses in Deford’s hand, and then inside his glove.
Reply to calvin post on January 28, 2014 at 4:09 am.
>> calvin said…
>> WTKTT. I do not think Parker is texting his picture out
>> in that video.
Ah… okay. I misunderstood you.
You had just said…
>> Video 0888… At the very beginning of this video
>> Wade Parker has a phone (I think) in his hand.
>> I am not sure what he is doing, but I would think it
>> has something to do with the photo that he texted.
I took that to mean you were pretty sure THAT is
when he was texting the photo to his mother.
>> calvin also said…
>> I actually think he texts it in the same
>> period pictures 0885, 0886 and 0887 are taken
Gotcha. Just curious… though… What makes you put
more weight on that being the time Parker does the
texout to his mother… versus what he is seen doing
in the video?
Second follow up
Holly Neil reported…….It is likely that Marsh first led a team of sawyers down behind him to improve the route by using a vertical cut-and-slash technique to open up a downhill path. A photo by Granite Mountain IHC crewmember Christopher MacKenzie shows a team of sawyers mobilized and moving south at 3:52.
I am assuming that she is referring to image 0887. But the problem with that is this. Andrew Ashcraft can clearly be seen in several Mackenzie photos and video from two separate devices timestamped after 352. And sitting at the Discussing options location.
Can anyone explain this?
And there in lies the real question. More sawyers were also sitting there after the supposed move to cut trail.
Another piece of the puzzle.
Reply to calvin post on January 28, 2014 at 4:20 am
>> calvin wrote…
>> I am assuming that she is referring to image 0887.
She ( Holly ) has never said for sure which photograph
she is basing her entire theory on… not in the original
blog post at Wildfire today or the followup post…
…but it HAS to be one of those photos showing them
‘slinging their saws’ in the 3:52 timeframe.
The moment people started questioning what H&M were
hearing in the videos they posted a follow-up blog entry
at Wildfire today attempting to explain their exact
sources for their claims. It was all about the videos.
They still didn’t identify the exact photo they were
basing the whole “Marsh took sawyers south on
ahead of the rest of crew” theory.
Regardless… yes… I think MacKenzie 0887 would
be the primary one she must have been referring to.
>> calvin also wrote…
>> But the problem with that is this. Andrew Ashcraft
>> can clearly be seen in several Mackenzie photos
>> and video from two separate devices timestamped
>> after 352. And sitting at the Discussing options
>> location.
Yes. I believe that was the very first thing I pointed out
when I first read that ‘theory’ over at the WT blog.
There is nothing wrong with the ‘theory’ itself ( as
theories go )… but if she was assuming that THOSE
particular sawyers ( the ones in the photo she based
her whole theory on ) were the ones that left with
Marsh… then that’s simply not the case. She forgot
to look at the other photos/videos.
>> Can anyone explain this?
Yes. It was a good stab at a theory based on what
she thought she was hearing in a video ( the
word “house” ) and what she thought she was seeing
in just one or two photos ( some sawyers leaving
a certain place ) but neither theory is supported by the
other available evidence.
UPDATE: Buried deep down in the comment
section(s) over at Wildfire today… Holly Neill
actually did get around to identifying exactly
which photo she was basing her whole “Marsh
took sawyers south” theory on.
We were right. It is, in fact, MacKenzie
Canon Powershot photo 0887.
The sawyers in that photo did not ‘disappear’
at 3:52. They are, in fact, seen ‘resting’ some
more up near the anchor point in other photos
taken after this 0887.
From the comments section of one of the
blog posts over at Wildfire Today…
>> Holly Neill on January 20, 2014 at 8:44 am said:
>>
>> The reference to the MacKenzie photo is photo
>> #0887 from the link that Bill posted to the Daily
>> Courier website.
Reply to Marti Reed post on January 27, 2014 at 5:32 pm
>> Marti said…
>>
>> I have now conceded, after reading the SAIR carefully, and taking notes,
>> and recalibrating, that it is entirely possible that Frisbee picked up Brendan
>> at around 5:50 and got him to GM Sup truck in time for Brendan to get to
>> the spot just beyond the Ranch House Restaurant where he took his
>> in-town photo at 4:02 while traveling an average of about 26 miles per hour.
Marti…
I don’t think this is going to change your new conclusions much more
than a few minutes either way… but see the discussion just above about
whether there really were ( or even had to be ) TWO ATV’s involved
circa 1530 to 1600.
It’s pretty obvious now that the GPS unit was physically attached to Blue
Ridge Captain ( Assistant Supervisor ) Trueheart Brown rather than
attached to either Frisby or the ATV itself that day.
That explains why there is no GPS tracking data that actually shows
Frisby ( and/or the BR ATV ) making this crucial run out for the second
face-to-face which turns into the rescue mission for Brendan instead.
Frisby must have borrowed the ATV and Brown was now left ‘on foot’
on the cutover trail between the Sesame area and the Shrine area,
which is where BR was working in this timeframe.
Frisby took off to try and make the meeting and Brown then began his
documented ‘scouting’ effort there on the cutover road… but he MUST
have been doing it WITHOUT the BR ATV ( despite what BR’s own
SAIT inteview notes say ) because Brian now had the ATV and was
headed WEST with it.
The GPS tracking data then shows nothing but Brown’s ‘scouting’ activity
on the cutover road for a full 21 minutes. The only problem that remains
is that SOME of these ‘scouting moves’ he is making during that 21
minute period appear to be IMPOSSIBLE to have been made by a
man on foot… even if he was RUNNING from spot to spot. The GPS
unit was updating every 60 seconds. It’s possible someone was giving
Brown ‘a lift’ for just these ‘scouting moves’ that seem impossible
to accomplish ‘on foot’.
Regardless… what all this means is that Frisby MUST have been totally
finished with his ‘mission’ and his use of the ATV by 1551… and gotten
it all the way back to the cutover road where he set out from…. because
at 1551 is when the GPS tracking really picks up speed again and we
see someone (Brown) making a quick/fast trip out/back from the cutover
road to the point where Sesame trail meets the Sesame parking area.
So no matter when Frisby got the call for the face-to-face meeting that
would then turn into the rescue mission for Brendan… Frisby would have
had to have been totally finished with that trip out west to the old-grader and
dropping Brendan off by 1551 at the latest.
If Frisby was NOT back to where Brown was on the cutover road by
1551 in order to ‘give him the ATV back’… then the only explanation for what
happens next on the BR GPS tracking at that point is that Brown must have
borrowed ANOTHER ATV for that quick trip west starting at 1551.
I don’t think that actually happened ( Brown borrowing another ATV ).
That means Frisby MUST have been ‘all done… all back’ and handed
the ATV back to Brown by no later than 1551.
Here’s the complete cut from that full (text) transcript I did on the
(publicly) released Blue Ridge GPS tracking video ( over in Chapter 3 )
that covers the entire 1520 through 1606 timeframe…
1520-1528
Stationary on the crossover trail a few hundred yards east of where it meets
Sesame trail. They stayed here for 8 minutes.
1529-1550
Back and forth on the crossover trail just probing or checking on something.
They were doing this for 21 minutes.
1551-1553
Suddenly headed north on Sesame trail towards where the BR Superintendent
truck is still parked. This timeframe matches the one listed in reports as when
Eric Marsh ‘requested’ a second face-to-face meeting all the way out on
the western ridge at the anchor point, and the moment when Brendan
McDonough was abandoning his lookout position.
1554
Arrival where the BR Superintendent truck is parked at the extreme north end of
Sesame, but they only stayed there for 1 minute, then they leave heading south
again for the Shrine area.
NOTE: This is the time when the SAIR says Frisby picked Brendan McDonough
0.6 miles west of there over at the old-grader location… but there is (apparently)
no GPS data to support that pickup. If Frisby was actually carrying the GPS
tracker at this point… then in order for this ‘trip’ to get Brendan to not be
recorded in the data it means Frisby would have had to have been able to get
0.6 miles west to the old-grader, pick up Brendan, and then travel 0.6 miles
back again all the way to where the BR Superintendent truck was parked
in less than 1 minute… before the next sequential GPS update. Not likely.
NOTE: The total ‘road’ distance ( and not as-the-bird-flies ) one-way from where
the BR Superintendent truck was parked out at the north end of the Sesame area
out west to the old-grader location is…
3483.96 feet, 1161.32 yards, 0.65 mile(s)
Round trip total distance would be…
6967.92 feet, 2322.64 yards, 1.31 mile(s)
1555-1605
South on Sesame, left turn on the crossover trail, and back towards the Shrine
area. 1 minute stop on the way in the middle of the crossover trail.
1606
Arrival back at the Shrine area again.
Based on the YIN:
*Trueheart Brown had the GPS on himself. There was no second UTV/ATV. From YIN, ~1530 time block: “Trew leaves with the ranger to scout north.” I think this means a Ford Ranger (perhaps the BR supt’s truck, perhaps a truck used to haul the UTV trailer – how do we know the BR supt truck was still parked at north end of Sesame?). Another mention of the Ranger: “Eric says ‘picking our way through the black to the rd in the bottom out towards the ranch’ Brian thinks he meant towards the 2 track. To confirm Brian says, ‘the rd we came on w/ the ranger…affirm.'”
*After Trew headed north, BR tries calling GM, gets Steed on the radio and talks tactics, gets Eric and agrees to face-to-face, then rounds a corner, sees increased flames around McDonough, and changes plans from meeting to evacuating McD as LO. (I *think* this is happening after 1551 – correct me if I’m wrong.)
*Our dozer goes north. Ball (BR squad leader) has been operating the dozer since earlier in the afternoon (1300 – 1430?), then it gets called north for structure protection: “B & T come back, tied in w/ the crew, and give Ball a lat/long with the ending pt for the dozer line. Around 1500 they want to pull the dozer out to go north for structure protection.”
Desoto photo 002 shows a picture of the BR UTV. It appears to me that it says Ranger on the side (toward the back)
Aaah, yes. And Google is thy friend:
“Find the Ranger that Fits Your Needs”
http://www.polaris.com/en-us/ranger-utv
Sitta… sorry… brain fart on my part.
I should have mentioned something about this.
I thought it was established early on in this thread that
BR’s UTV was, in fact, a standard Polaris Ranger.
calvin is right… it says so right on the back of it.
The fact that Frisby said “the road we came on
with the ranger” ( for the first face-to-face ) also
pretty much proves he’s talking about that BR ATV.
I’m also still confused by the Blue Ridge notes in
many places. Simply not accurate at all sometimes.
Brown could not have had the ‘ranger’ during this
timeframe for his ‘scouting trip north’… and he
never went north at all. He stayed on the east-west
cutover road between the Sesame Area and the
Shrine Area for 21 minutes while Frisby was gone.
There WAS an extensive BR scouting trip ‘north’ all the
way up that ‘jeep trail’ and either right up TO or even
THROUGH the fireline… but that happened much
earlier… after the first face-to-face meeting with Marsh.
Calvin, Marti, WTKTT: you guys are absolutely right. I was misfiring on all synapses.
I’m so glad I never ever do that!!!
Namaste and glad you’re here, occasional misfirings and all!
Quick and dirty. From Ball’s photo 1882, at 3:26 pm. Trew is walking towards the bulldozer. Not an ATV in sight, at least around Trew. The obvious thing to me would be, if I wanted to move faster, I’d hitch a ride on the dozer.
PS I have a little detail-curiosity question about something in that photo.
There’s a twisted cord leading up from Trew’s shoulder. It kinda looks like it wraps around his ear. Can anybody tell me what that might be? I was thinking it might be related to his radio, but he’s hand-holding his radio up.
Marti,
Without looking atthe photo, I’d say the twisted cord would be an external microphone that would attach to the radio and thenclip to your fire shirt, web gear, whatever.
Thank you!
Marti, I believe (seems like wtktt posted some info about this above) the dozer is moving toward them (Ball, Brown). South!
But where in the rule of the Universe does it say that a bulldozer can’t turn and go in a different direction?
Bob,
Air Support stuff has gotten a lot more complicated in the past few years. Besides the ATGS (Air Attack Group Supervisor) they now usethe ASM (Aerial Supervision Module). They are all under Chapter 16 in the ‘Red Book’ if you’re interested.
http://www.nifc.gov/PUBLICATIONS/redbook/2011/Ch16.pdf
The ASM is who was flying the fire as ASM2 during the ‘heat of the battle’ after Rory Collins wigged out. It’s described below from the Red Book:
Aerial Supervision Module (ASM)
2
3 The Aerial Supervision Module is crewed with both a Lead/ATCO qualified Air
4 Tactical Pilot (ATP) and an Air Tactical Supervisor (ATS). These individuals
5 are specifically trained to operate together as a team. The resource is primarily
6 designed for providing both functions (Lead/ATCO and Air Attack)
7 simultaneously from the same aircraft, but can also provide single role service,
8 as well.
9
10 The Air Tactical Pilot is primarily responsible for aircraft coordination over the
11 incident. The ATS develops strategy in conjunction with the Operations Section
12 Chief.
13 • BLM – The Interagency Aerial Supervision Guide is policy for BLM. The
14 Interagency Aerial Supervision Guide is available online at
15 http://www.blm.gov/nifc/st/en/prog/fire/Aviation/aerial_supervision.html
16
17 Operational Considerations
18 The ASM is a shared national resource. Any operation that limits the national
19 resource status must be approved by the agency program manager. Aerial or
20 incident complexity and environmental considerations will dictate when the
21 ASM ceases low level operations. The ASM flight crew has the responsibility
22 to determine when the complexity level of the incident exceeds the capability to
23 perform both ATGS and leadplane functions from one aircraft. The crew will
24 request additional supervision resources, or modify the operation to maintain
25 mission safety and efficiency.
26
27 Policy
28 Only those individuals certified and authorized by the BLM – National Aviation
29 Office, or the FS – National Aviation Operations Officer, will function as an Air
30 Tactical Supervisor (ATS) in an ASM mission profile.
Thank you SO MUCH for this!!!
I’ve been trying to sketch out some kind of organizational chart of this whole thing from the SAIR, but the way it’s written, it’s still a bit confusing. Reading this really helped put some floating pieces in place.
I Liked my simple life better ( but with progress comes new confusion) ICS has muddied the water when you have 2 OPS and 2 ASM/ATS on 1 Fire. Things change maybe that’s the problem.
Marti, Elizabeth et al:
I apologize in advance for sounding wound up.
There seems to be a presumption that there is some magic evidence out there, waiting to be discovered, that is going to result in an epiphany and suddenly make sense of everything. I am sorry but that is nuts. This will never make any sense, because it is inexplicable!
The Musser request was ill-advised. But Marsh needed to recognize that and not acquiesce to it. Likewise, if someone subsequently reiterated it, Marsh needed to say no. He was the one out there charged with protecting the lives of his 19 crew members. Maybe the weather/fire forecast did influence him. But for him to allow a FORECAST to set aside his training and do something most all agree was not safe is pull-your-hair-out crazy. That is why you do not rely on weather forecasts, fire command’s hare-brained ideas or even your own lying eyes. Listen to Bob and RTS. You rely on the RULES – they will guide you home.
Even if we find there was an order, that won’t explain why Marsh failed to protect his men, either by following the rules or by refusing to give in. You might wonder if we are asking too much of him. But that is what hotshot superintendents have to do. This is not the military. No wildland commander has the right to order men to their deaths. I said earlier I would never want the job. But once you have it, you are expected to have the strength to do what is right.
Mike,
Thank you for that cogent spot-on response. You’re thinking like a Hot Shot Superintendent even though you say you would not want tobe one.
I’m not presuming there is magical evidence. I’m just asking why evidence is being with-held.
Sometimes, when people don’t want to talk, it’s to protect the innocent. Sometimes, it’s to protect the guilty. Sometimes, it’s both. In this case, withholding information prevents good lessons from being learned. YES, 10 & 18 and LCES are job #1, BUT there must have been external factors of all different types that caused this crew to get tunnel vision and die because of it. Identifying those factors, potentially could save lives as well.
Sadly, this probably won’t be the last group of individuals that die on a wildfire by ignoring some of the 10 & 18. WE NEED TO MINIMIZE THESE OCCURANCES! Exploring external factors that CAUSED loss of focus, is a legitimate exercise to try and save lives in the future.
Sometimes first-hand witnesses are silent in order to avoid well-meaning but ill-informed (or reckless) people taking things way out of context or reading too much into them.
My impression is that that is part of what is at play here, according to the materials I have garnered. This in part informs why I am increasingly concerned about trajectories in comment threads like these.
Yes. And also, sometimes first-hand witnesses are silent because the lawyers who represent the agencies they work for make sure, as soon as possible, that they understand EXACTLY what they are/are not going to say.
Mike, you are a wise man who doesn’t let his emotions cloud his thinking.
Mike, I take strong exception to your lumping me in as you did above. I have been very clear that I have no belief in magical evidence or a smoking gun, and I take strong exception to your suggestion otherwise. My only goal has been to try to help with transparency, to try to fill some of the gaps left by the SAIR (for example) that prevent every possible lesson from being learned from this tragedy. It is hard for folks impacted by this tragedy to get closure when such gaps are left.
What “magical evidence” do you suggest that I, personally, am seeking – please point me to whatever of my statements gave you that impression. Thanks in advance.
I support Elizabeth’s statement- spot on.
Elisabeth A little clarification— Air attack the main contact from ground orders.
Lead plane Takes orders from Air Attack and Supervises the Air Tankers.
I would have to go back and remember which one left and the other assumed both duties. So Air Attack and Lead Plane can both be the same person but on complex fires there are normally 2 Air Attack stays above or out of the way. and directs the Show. Some times the lead plane has just the pilot who is a employee of the state or FS or BLM specifically hire for that position. Hope that helps.
The first meeting with Marsh was Frisby and I think his asst. Brown. But then there was no GPS when Frisby went back to the meeting and picked up McDonough. Which we have looked for and could not explain. That is why I am of the impression the GPS was attached to Brown. He also went on the search mission and the GPS tracked his movements. So do we or do we not have a new info GPS that shows the pickup of McDonough? If so then maybe it was on the ATV. We had not found that on the earlier GPS release from BR.
The only GPS movement shown in the publicly released BR
tracking video during the 1530 to 1600 timeframe is in two
parts…
1) For MOST of that 30 minute time period… the GPS unit
is only ‘scouting around’ there on that eas-west cutover
road that connected the Sesame area ( where the GM
Crew Carriers were still parked ) and the Shrine Area.
That ‘scouting’ matches what Blue Ridge’s own SAIT
interview notes say Trueheart Brown was doing during
the time Frisby was ‘called to attend a second face-to-face
meeting with Marsh’. ( Circa 1530, according to their notes ).
2) Around 1556 or so… someone makes a very quick and
fast ‘hop’ all the way from the west end of the cutover road
up to where the BR vehicles were originally staged at the
north end of the ‘Sesame area’… right where the ‘Sesame
trail’ that leads out to the old-grader meets that area.
The GPS unit only stays there for a moment… and then
heads very quickly right back where it was before that
‘quick trip’.
So without Brown having *borrowed* another ATV… here
would be the only explanation… but it has its own holes.
1) Brown had the GPS unit on him, physically.
2) Frisby is called for the second face to face meeting at
either 1530 ( According to Blue Ridge’s SAIT interview )
or at 1540 ( According to the SAIR ).
3) Frisby gets into the BR ATV to go to the meeting, and
Brown stays ‘on foot’ there on the cutover road.
4) We lose track of Frisby AND the ATV at that point because
Frisby went alone… and the GPS is physically attached to Brown.
( Here is where it gets sticky )
5) The ‘scouting activity’ we DO see on the cutover road at
this point really is just Brown ‘on foot’ moving very quickly
from place to place for about 20 minutes.
The PROBLEM with that is that the GPS unit was ‘updating’
every 60 seconds and there appear to be a number of
‘moves’ during that time that could not possibly have been
accomplished by a man on foot… even if he was RUNNING.
Maybe… for only those moves that seem impossible… Brown
‘hitched a ride’ with someone moving along that road. The
rest of the ‘scouting moves’ were on foot.
That’s a stretch… but I’m just trying to make sense of the
evidence itself.
6) Frisby returns with the ATV before 1555. He actually DID
make it all the way to the old-grader, abort the face-to-face,
get Brendan to the GM Supervisor truck, AND make it all
the way back to the cutover road where he started in just
the small amount of time he had to do all this.
7) The ATV is now BACK on the cutover road by 1555… and
Brown gets BACK in the UTV for this ‘quick trip’ out and
back to the north end of the Sesame area. Maybe Frisby
was with him for whatever that ‘quick trip’ was about,
maybe not.
What is clear ( and also documented ) is that by the time
Frisby got back to where Brown was on the cutover road
from the aborted face-to-face meeting and dropping Brendan
off… it was time to stop the active linebreak work and begin
evacuating from that cutover road area over to the Shrine
Youth Camp area… which is exactly what they began to do.
By the way… if the original question ( somewhere above? )
was whether the GPS unit was physically attached to
Brown… or attached to the ATV…
…the answer really has to be that it was attached to Brown.
Remember… We DO see Brown ‘running’ down to the
deployment site after the burnover… and we also see
him ‘walking’ with that group east from the deployment
site to the ranch, back to the deployment site again,
and then back up to the ridge where he started ( but
just walking back up and not running like he came down. )
The ATVs were left up on the ridge.
For us to be seeing Brown’s movements down into
the canyon and back… it means it MUST have been
attached to his pack strap or something…
…probably exactly the way we see GM Hotshot Robert
Caldwell wearing his Garmin Oregon 450 GPS handheld
attached to his right-front pack strap.
OK, I’ll post my earlier comment here, too, because I think it’s relevant.
“Marti Reed
on January 28, 2014 at 6:44 am said:
Just to add a little more noise to the confusion.
Ball’s photo 1882 shows Trew at 3:26.
Walking.
Toward the bulldozer as it clears the area around the gate.
Good morning!”
Now that I read your comment above, while looking at this picture. I’m thinking maybe when he wasn’t walking, he might have “hitched a ride” on the dozer? That’s the only thing I see out there that could have moved faster than being on foot.
And that dose happen with Dozer boss’s they hitch rides when moving distances. A good possibility.
The reason I didn’t even mention the dozer as
a possible explanation for some of the moves
Brown is seen making in that 21 minute time
period is because I ( me, personally ) was
just assuming that a dozer on a dirt road
wouldn’t even be able to move as fast as
a man could RUNNING.
I don’t know dozers.
Can they really haul ass sometimes?
I guess the only real answer to this part of the
puzzle is to just take a moment and put a
distance number on all the ‘moves’ being
shown in that 21 minute time period and
determine if we really are seeing a guy with
a GPS unit ‘on foot’… or whether he really
would have had to have some fast vehicle
for some of those ‘moves’ recorded in the
BR GPS tracking.
I guess my touchy feely response to this is why in the world would Trew be all of a sudden RUNNING in this context?
It just seems so naturally obvious to me that, if I were the Asst. Sup, and I wanted to get somewhere faster than things were otherwise going, in which ever direction, regardless of what direction the dozer was LOOKING in one of these photos, I’d tell the dozer operator some version of “hey Joe, I need you to get around to the left and get me over there PRONTO!” I mean, like, what’s so difficult about that??
My New Standard Disclaimer: This is my s and assumption only…nothing about this post should be construed as truth about the incident.
Sonny-
I can after my medical massage or before it this week organize photos we have that were on one of the aftermath hikes before we knew the restricted area was restricted and before the Paxon restricted map if you want to do that-
I will make a public link and that should help folks.
Marti
I think brown had the GPS attached to him so when Frisby was in ATV there was no GPS and there was no other ATV.
Bob, where are you getting that? (I don’t disagree – I don’t know either way – I am just curious if you heard this from one of the men directly.)
Brown might not have had the GPS unit attached to him
ALL day… but he most certainly did when we see him
running down to the deployment site, walking to the
ranch with others from the deployment site, then walking
back to the site… then walking ( not running, this time )
back up to the ridge.
The ATVS were sitting all the way up on the ridge for
this entire sequence captured in the BR GPS tracking.
Brown probably ‘wore it’ the exact same way we see
GM Hotshot Robert Caldwell ‘wearing’ his Garmin
Oregon 450 GPS unit attached to the upper front
of his pack strap.
Just to add a little more noise to the confusion.
Ball’s photo 1882 shows Trew at 3:26.
Walking.
Toward the bulldozer as it clears the area around the gate.
Good morning!
Yep, and there is no UTV in the pic. And the sequence either before or after that shows the Dozer moving SOUTH. And the dozer is pointed south. SOUTH, SOUTH
Do you think it matters that, somewhere last week, I think, when there was a discussion about this photo, that someone said this was when the dozer was essentially bulldozing around, in order to clear out the area associated with, the gate? Having watched bulldozers do their thing, I don’t really make a huge big deal about what exact direction a bulldozer is facing at any given time in an operation described as something like that. But maybe I’m wrong.
My New Standard Disclaimer: This is my guess and assumption only…nothing about this post should be construed as truth about the incident.
From 1530 to 1600… the Blue Ridge GPS tracking unit shows
nothing but someone ‘scouting’ from place to place along the
cutover road between the Sesame Area and Shrine Road
( where the BR crew was still working in that timeframe ) and
then a very quick, short trip up/back ONLY up to where the BR
Crew Carriers HAD been staged earlier at that point where
the east-to-west Sesame Trail road meets the Sesame area.
So there pretty much had to be TWO ATV’s involved here, or
the entire story of Brian Frisby heading all the way out to
the old-grader to pick up Brendan ( in that same timeframe )
is false.
There were LOTS of ATVs around that day.
Frisby could have easily ‘borrowed’ one to head out for that
face-to-face Marsh requested… but ended up rescuing
Brendan instead.
I believe the Ranger DPS reports just made public say that
after the deployment, at the time they were told to ‘hover over
the helispot’ to guide the rescue team up there, they were
counting anywhere from 3 to 4 ATV’s in that ‘rescue group’.
That UTV picked Brendan up.
Then whoever had the BR GPS unit was the
one that borrowed someone else’s ATV. The
tracking video shows movement that could
NOT be accomplished on foot during the
1530 to 1600 timeframe.
Oops. I should have put my above comment here.
Marti Reed
on January 28, 2014 at 6:44 am said:
Just to add a little more noise to the confusion.
Ball’s photo 1882 shows Trew at 3:26.
Walking.
Toward the bulldozer as it clears the area around the gate.
Good morning!
Looks like there were THREE ATVs in that rescue
convoy… according to the 3 people who were onboard
the Ranger 58 chopper that was looking for GM.
Eric Tarr reported ‘several’ ATVs
Charles Main put the number at exactly 3 ATVs.
Clifford Bursting also put the number at exactly 3 ATVs.
From page 5 of the online document…
M-Law-Enforcement-no-redactions.pdf
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/1hkbym5oq6duz13/kIDfGFLEsB/M-%20Law%20Enforcement%20-%20no%20redactions.pdf
* Ranger 58 – Officer/Paramedic Eric Tarr.
While searching we ( Ranger 58 ) observed several quads
driving in the black also looking for the Firefighters.
We were requested by Air Attack to hover over the packs
so the Firefighters on the quads could locate them. We
were not able to talk to the Firefighters on the ground
on A/G 16 ( Air Guard Channel 16 ). Once the Firefighters
arrived at the packs we continued our search.
* Ranger 58 – Officer/Paramedic Charles Main.
At approximately 1736 hours, several yellow, backpack
style fire pumps and other miscellaneous gear was
found in the area of coordinates 34 13.75N, 112 47.53W.
Command was notified of the location and Ranger began
to do a search in the area. During that time, command
requested Ranger to stay near the area of the gear
because command was going to send ground units to
investigate. Shortly after, three off road utility vehicles
arrived in the area and made their way near the location
of the gear. The firefighters had to walk approximately
200 to 300 yards to the gear.
* Ranger 58 – Pilot Clifford Brunsting.
As we searched the areas along the ridgeline we located
a group of yellow backpacks clustered in a group in the
vicinity of where I had seen the hotshots during the
morning recon. Medic Tarr noted the coordinates and
passed them on to Air Attack as we expanded our search
from that area. We could not search very far to the east
because of the thick smoke and heat of the fire but flew as
close as I could without jeopardizing aircraft performance
or being enveloped in the thick smoke. After about 45
minutes we saw three quads traveling up the trail to the
ridgeline but we had no radio contact with them on air
to ground frequency. The quads had reached the top of
the trail and then turned around and started down when
we were requested by Operations to hover over the packs
so the quads could locate them. The quads turned around
and headed back south up the trail until they reached a
point where the trail was impassable. They then hiked
about 300 hundred yards to where we were hovering
over the packs. At this time we had been in the air almost
one hour and were getting low on fuel, the winds had
slowly blown the fire and smoke out of the area to the east
so I attempted to fly towards Yarnell to see how far we
could get.
Those weren’t all Blue Ridge UTVs searching for the deployment site. Blue Ridge was not the only group with an ATV or UTV that day. This goes back to your point about the GPS – the GPS was there for the pick-up of Brendan. Not that it matters.
Reply to Elizabeth post on
January 27, 2014 at 8:37 pm
>> Elizabeth said…
>> Those weren’t all Blue Ridge UTVs
>> searching for the deployment site.
Of course they weren’t. BR only had 1.
>> Blue Ridge was not the only group with
>> an ATV or UTV that day.
Of course they weren’t.
>> This goes back to your point about the
>> GPS – the GPS was there for the
>> pick-up of Brendan.
No. Elizabeth. It was not.
There is NO GPS tracking data that
shows the actual pickup of Brendan
McDonough out at the old-grader.
>> Not that it matters.
Yes. It does. Are you really trying to maintain
that the BR GPS tracking video DOES
show Brendan being picked up at the
old-grader?
If you have something that shows it…
the what was released publicly is
not what you have.
Elizabeth, Apologies if I am misinterpreting.
Are you saying, the blue ridge gps shows Mcdonough being picked up in the utv at the BR supt trucks and not at the grader?
I have a “dumb” question.
What’s the difference between a UTV and an ATV?
There both 4 wheelers ATV motorcycle and 1 passenger 4×4 also at one time 4×4 jeeps and trucks were ATV’s.
ALL TERAIN VEHICLES
I just call all of them ATV’s
The new UTV carries 2 or more passengers Still an ATV to me.
Thank you!
Locally people will share their photos to you “live”, by camera review or at your cost print photos but for the most part locals do not want anyone to see or know they have photos. Yet if you all saw what we have seen, the discussion on clean cuttings or talks of sawyers in the area does not match to any photo we have seen thus far. We have zoom in of the area when media was there and we were on top of the mountain legally and the saddle is in the photos but due to respect of people like John Dougherty, Morgan Loew, Joanna Dodder, etc who are in the photos we cannot post publicly.
Sonny… understand about the ‘privacy’ issues… but could you
be a little more clear about what you are actually trying to
say there… generally.
Are you saying that ‘locals’ DO have evidence of ‘sawyers in
the area’… and more ‘evidence of cuttings than seen before’…
or that they do NOT have any evidence like that?
Is there, in fact, ANY evidence of any ‘cuttings’ anywhere
EAST of the deployment site that could not be attributed
to them bulldozing/clearing a path to the deployment site?
no cuttings except the deployment section. Joy said she is going to work something out to get the photos to view publicly this week. First her photos than go from there. John, can Joy post any media photos when you all met with Willis if we were on legal gps point? Or you rather not.
Sonny… thank you ( ongoing thanks… of course ).
It just sounded for a moment there like you
were saying that some local folks *might*
actually have some photos or witnessed some
‘cutting’ in the area EAST of the deployment
zone… between there and the ranch.
I understand now… that is NOT what you were
saying and that is NOT the case.
Whatever ‘additional’ evidence there might be
of ‘cuttings’ is only either at or around the
deployment site itself… or WEST of there
where the men were descending from the ridge.
Thanks again!
WTKTT And all
The only point I had yesterday was trying to put some time frames on Marsh as Marti is doing research on our only real time on Marsh I s the meeting with Frisby and where he would have been at that time. That time is in question to both put Marsh ahead or behind crew. Without some time reference to put Marsh where any one could estimate he was between 1500 and Deployment time. My thoughts–He never went to the ranch, he never was in front of the crew cutting a trail down the canyon, I believe he caught up with them at the saddle and took up the rear. But there is no proof of time to even estimate that time frame except travel time from a specific point the meeting place to the deployment site. So between Marti and I we have been fishing for some time frame to attach to Marsh. As I would say we been cutting a lot of bait but haven’t caught nothing yet.
John Dougherty-
didn’t you interview some of the pilots or someone commenting on here? The yellow and white helicopter and #58 helicopter could answer where Marsh was late day.
Mr. Powers… I’m still listening my ears off to videos and I
was letting Marti and Calvin hash out what they are calling
the ‘new timeframe’. I still really can’t comment on what they
have been doing until I spend time with those MacKenzie
cell phone pictures.
But in the meantime…
1) Sonny just said something very important up above.
He said Marsh was ‘all over the place’… INCLUDING
‘south’ of the anchor point. Probably need more details
on that such as “Did you ever actually see him far
enough south that he appeared to be scouting the
saddle and/or escape route?”
2) If I am right about what is going on in the background at
the START of that recently released AIR STUDY video…
then, at 4:16 PM, ASM2 is not saying he can, in fact,
‘see’ ( place ) Granite Mountain ‘behind those hills… on the
corner ( of the fire )”… but he is also SURE enough that
he does NOT see DIVS A (Marsh) to the point where he
insists someone on the ground call them right away and
try to verify if he ( Marsh ) is with them.
So that means ASM2 knew very well that DIVS A ( Marsh )
was out there SOMEWHERE… and it suggests he knew
how to spot him ( red helmet )… but at 4:16 pm he is
NOT seeing him there with the rest of Granite and he’s
concerned enough about that to call down and ask
someone to please VERIFY where he ( Marsh ) really is.
Maybe that’s a stretch… maybe not.
I don’t know if French or Burfiend had any idea who ‘Eric
Marsh’ was… but it would seem that what they were saying
is that they at least knew how to identify him ‘out there’…
( the guy with the red helmet off by himself ) and they knew
he was floating around out on that ridge… but at that
particular moment ( 4:16 PM ) they are NOT seeing him
and concerned enough to want a positive ‘locate’ on him
by ground command.
Dang. Bad typo above. I dropped the word ‘not’ in a
place where it shouldn’t have been and it changed
what I meant to say.
What I MEANT to say above was…
2) If I am right about what is going on in the background at
the START of that recently released AIR STUDY video…
then, at 4:16 PM, ASM2 is saying he can, in fact,
‘see’ ( place ) Granite Mountain ‘behind those hills… on the
corner ( of the fire )”… but he is also SURE enough that
he does NOT see DIVS A (Marsh) to the point where he
insists someone on the ground call them right away and
try to verify if he ( Marsh ) is with them.
1) Sonny just said something very important up above.
He said Marsh was ‘all over the place’… INCLUDING
‘south’ of the anchor point. Probably need more details
on that such as “Did you ever actually see him far
enough south that he appeared to be scouting the
saddle and/or escape route?”
replying to above comment left for me to answer.
I did answer this earlier today. Someone had to be at the “bags” coordinates with pink ribbon and yellow bladder bags. You see that same setup at the helispot that survived and did not burn as I explained earlier so very well could of been Marsh there but puts him in the area after we left and last saw him last between 2-2:30pm and he was North area not near the saddle but does not mean within 15 minutes he hit that area to mark the spot and maybe Marsh looked at the ranch and saw the deception of it looking so close and just marked it as the escape route not knowing how the descend would feel being maybe he did not actually go down that way and remained high in areas marking-
So no one knows if it was Marsh who did the bladder bags and pink ribbon factually as Joy would want me to state because we did not see him do it. I can state this, that day we only saw Marsh marking bushes; no one else. I follow you all trying to figure it out yet I camp with a girl who is all about the facts and nothing else. Joy has such a faith in seeing the whole package and she is not protecting anyone or is anyone’s cheerleader in this but she is for documented facts only. You should see the maps here Joy has based on facts alone- some in reports and some on accounts people provided proof to her. She is very disciplined in her focus on seeing clarity and as well as looking at areas most people do not even think to look. Kind of like some of you I read on here. I don’t get that deep.
Just for fact in a fixed wing unless your making scarfing runs and specifically talking and pin pointing some one it would be difficult to ID one person. You would see a group of yellow shirts but single individuals would be difficult with out a lot of talking location and signals. I have done a lot of air attack and air patrol. With out conversation between each other for location your flying blind. It is not like a helicopter.
Forgot to add there was more than 1 red hat on the crew. Again if he was with the crew they would have been a group of FF’s. The plain is 150 ft. above them at 80+ MPH.
Steed and Marsh both had red hats
Understand… Mr. Powers. Thanks.
Yea… unless ASM2 really was able to spot ‘red
helmets’… it’s hard to imagine him/them being
able to actually ID anyone on the ground.
But the question remains ( if I am right about the
start of that video ) that he seemed very concerned
that DIVS A ( Marsh ) might NOT have been with
them. So much so that he was insisting someone
on the ground get on the horn to verify that ASAP.
So something was telling him DIVS A might
NOT be there. Either a visual or just plain
confusion about who was who and where
down there after he got Air Attack duties dumped
in his lap by Collins’ sudden departure.
Only another round of interviews with French
and Burfiend ( with some actual targeted questions
this time ) could probably clear that up.
Or he was concerned about their iffy situation, and just wanted to be sure that their supervisor was aware of it .
Even the SAIR admits in their published
narrative that there WAS this moment
when ASM2 wanted a ‘timeout’ to
check on their whereabouts… so
yea… he was concerned. No doubt.
If I am right about what is being said
in the background at the START of
that only AIR STUDY video that
any of us have seen so far… then
it makes the ‘concern’ just a little
more specific. It SOUNDS like
ASM2 had 2 specific concerns
at 4:16 PM…
1) The group of men he can see
‘behind those hills… at the corner
( of the fire )’ keep saying they
are ‘comfortable’ ( His word ) but
his eyes tell him different. He
says that is ‘not credible’.
2) He REALLY just wants to know
if this ‘DIVS A’ person he keeps
hearing from/talking to is actually
WITH that group of men, or not.
No one ( at that time ) says…
“Nah… they’re all in safe black,
don’t worry about it.”
They DO respond to ASM2’s
request to ‘check on them’ and
that’s when the ‘What’s your status?’
and the ‘Are you with GM?”
queries take place. ( Circa 4:16 PM ).
100% not true. I have to pull an RTS and tell you that I cannot tell you why I know what I know, but I know. Sorry. (And I mean that sincerely.)
Understand… but could you clarify.
WHAT are you saying is ‘100 percent not true’?
The part about what Sonny said about Marsh?…
or the part about ASM2?
Your point “2” above, suggesting that the guys in the air were looking for GM, is not consistent with what I am seeing. There were at least five guys that were in the air and in a lead sort of role, as best I know – the two guys on Bravo 3, the two on Bravo 33, and Collins. Collins was out at 3:58-ish. My impression is that the other two two-man teams did NOT have a good awareness of where GM was. My impression is that one team actually had no clue that there was a crew OUT there (b/c they were busy flying lead plane on the OTHER side of the ridge – the NORTH side of the ridge.
Remember, folks. There were TWO bowls created by the multiple ridges, such that the planes were actually focusing on the OTHER bowl. To wit, at around 2pm-ish, things were getting crazy on the NORTH end of the fire, later turning toward Yarnell, all on the OTHER side of the ridge, and that is where the air attack guys were spending their time, as I understand it. The same ridge that blocked GM’s view of the fire coming down from the north also served to create a SECOND bowl, on which the lead plane (or planes) was/were focusing.
Elizabeth… copy that.
I don’t see anything fundamentally
wrong with your description of
events and activity above…
…but I’m still a little confused about
your blanket statement of ‘100
percent disagreement’.
100 percent disagreement
with WHAT?
The TIME being discussed above
is 4:16 PM.
Where do you place ASM2 at
exactly 4:16 PM?
Elizabeth,
I was under the understanding that around 4PM after Collins left, there was only ONE plane, ASM2, that had to assume the roles of BOTH, Air Attack and a Lead Plane, whereas prior, two separate aircraft and teams were filling those positions. Wasn’t Collins in one of those Bravo aircraft?
I still get head-achey on this, as I’m not finished trying to create an organizational chart. And it’s really really hard to do.
The Investigation Notes are just really insane. Right now I’m looking at Bravo 3 and it’s both really confusing and really a description of utter chaos. So. I could be wrong on this but.
My current understanding is that, before Bravo 33 arrived, at 1447 (according to the SAIR), there was a plane that Collins was using/flying as Air Attack, and there was Bravo 3, functioning as ASM1. I’m still not sure what the difference is.
So Bravo 33 arrives. I’m not sure exactly what their original instructions were. SAIR says “to relieve the first ASM1, which had been on the fire since about noon. That being the case (I’m thinking out loud while reading here) that must mean Bravo 3 was ASM1. ASM1 departs for refueling. That’s definitely Bravo 3. With the stated intent of being back on the scene at 1715.
OK reading from the SAIR it says, “Air Attack’s pilot is getting short on duty time so he departs about 1600 after a brief hand off with ASM2.” That’s definitely Collins.
I’m still having trouble distinguishing between Air Attack and ASM, obviously. And their different roles.
So, yes, you are absolutely correct that Bravo 33 arrived (from Silver City, (where I need to drive down to to tell them thank you some time) at 1447 to replace Bravo 3 in it’s role as ASM2 after a 10 minute briefing. Then at 1600 Air Attack (i.e. Collins in or piloting a different plane) had to leave because he was at his limit of duty time (8 hours max required an END to his functioning) so that role was also handed off to Bravo 33 (French-pilot/air-2-air-supervision and Burfiend air-2-ground supervision) while also having to perform the functions of “lead plane.” They got handed an absolute sh*t sandwich, in my humble opinion.
Reading this stuff is like all the worst of organizational bureaucratize and guess what we’re talking about mixed with a strong helping of absolute chaos in terms of what was happening.
AND this is all happening while the air tankers based in Wickenberg were running out of suppressant, so Wickenberg was asking if they could land/refill them in Prescott, while Prescott was having to ground all its tankers because the weather was making it impossible to fly in and out.
After slowly trying to understand all this, when I hear Burfiend ordering Steed to “please stop yelling,” I can totally sympathize with him, and with Steed also.
Just another piece of the clusterf*** that was the Yarnell Hill Fire.
My New Standard Disclaimer: This is my guess and assumption only…nothing about this post should be construed as truth about the incident.
So I’m gonna add on with, I think more clarity.
Robert Powers posted somewhere today this document about “Aviation Operations and Resources.”
http://www.nifc.gov/PUBLICATIONS/redbook/2011/Ch16.pdf
It has stuff in it like (on page 18):
“Aerial Supervision Module (ASM) The Aerial Supervision Module is crewed with both a Lead/ATCO qualified Air Tactical Pilot (ATP) and an Air Tactical Supervisor (ATS). These individuals are specifically trained to operate together as a team. The resource is primarily designed for providing both functions (Lead/ATCO and Air Attack) simultaneously from the same aircraft, but can also provide single role service, as well.”
So, I’m not sure why they shifted from using one plane as “Air Attack” (Collins) and another as ASM1 (which is DESIGNED to combine in one crew in one plane a lead pilot/air-to-air-communications and a non-pilot/air-to-ground-communications Air Attack role in one plane called Bravo 3) to the different configuration which combined the two into one plane (which the theory/structure is actually designed to do, but which, given the radically increasing chaos and lack of briefings, left Bravo 33 with way more complicated responsibilities than they could have posssibly successfully managed.
Does what I’m saying make sense?
My New Standard Disclaimer: This is my guess and assumption only…nothing about this post should be construed as truth about the incident.
OK so I just wrote to Elizabeth:
“I am still trying to calmly put together, as I have been for the past day and a half, a timeline, based on evidence, of Eric Marsh during the period between when he asked Frisbee to meet him at “The Meeting Spot.” The point I need in order to do that is When did he tell Frisbee he wanted to meet him at 3:50.
I am assuming Eric was at a place, at that point, where he assumed he could get down from however he was, to “The Meeting Place” by 3:50.
I’m assuming that, at that time he started down to get to that “Meeting Place.”
I’m also assuming that at the latest time Frisbee could have picked McDonough up in order for him to be taking the photos he took, that pickup time was around 3:20 to 3:30 PM.
I’m also assuming that after that time, Eric had no reason to do anything, all things considered, but keep heading down the ridge, to the point that, possibly, he could have been within shouting distance to the GM crew during the “Conversation about their Options” gathering which Chris has so helpfully documented by his photography.
By my trying to create a timeline of Eric’s positions during all of this, I have no evidence whatsoever that Eric was, at the time of the “Options Conversation,” and from then after, at all that much of a serious distance, away from the crew.”
I need two things to confirm/not confirm that timeline.
The time Eric radio’d Frisbee and asked him to meet him.
Someone to prove me wrong.
Marti…
According to existing documentation… the exact moment
when Marsh ‘asked’ Frisby to come back up for that second
face-to-face was right after the radio discussion where
Jesse Steed said they (GM) were going to need at least
another hour to finish the ‘tie in’ with the two-track before that
whole planned ‘burnout’ thing could take place.
Eric supposedly answered Steed’s statement right away
with “Copy that”… and THEN immediately ‘suggested’ that
Frisby head back up for another face to face.
So when… EXACTLY was ‘that moment’?
That’s a little harder to say.
In the Blue Ridge SAIT Interview notes… the time is put
at right around 1530… but that paragraph is lumping a whole
lot of other stuff into that timeframe as well.
1530 ( ish ) would make sense, though.
That would have given Frisby enough time to stop what he
was doing ( back in Yarnell ) and start heading out that
way to arrive at the old-grader location about the time he
is supposed to have picked up Brendan, cancelled the plans
for the face-to-face, and just headed back east.
From page 8 of the YIN notes.
Interview with Blue Ridge Hotshots.
Tied in with cortis for the 1st time, at this time he didn’t want to evacuate Yarnell, the trigger pt was the ridge. They needed 4 ppl to move the buggies @ 1530, they briefed the crew there 1st escape route was to the hwy and out, 2nd escape route was back to the junction burn out the grass. Meets Trew starts dropping people off with minimal prep. ½ chain in at that time call f/ ops Musser requesting dozer up to the north it’s close to homes. Trew leaves with the ranger to scout north. Brian tries to contact GM several times, GM direct 3 or 4x Brian passed on to Jesse there plan of Gm securing there piece to the 2 track. Jesse says we have about another hr before we are tied into the 2 track. Eric copy’s and says yes that’s a good plan, head back up here let’s do a face-to-face. B says ok. He comes around the corner fire behavior has shot up. The knob where Brendan is there’s smoke pushing up it. He gets Brendon because the flames were active. Brian calls Eric no response. Then he gets him and lets GM know Brendan is leaving his LO post and fire activity is picking up and were moving our rigs, do you want us to move yours…affirm Eric says. Eric says we have good black.
Marti… you DO see one of the problems with the Blue
Ridge notes above, though, right?
In this same ‘1530’ lump of activity… it says that ‘Trew’
took the Ranger ( UTV ) and went ‘scouting north’ at
the same time Marsh supposedly asked Frisby to
start heading out for a face-to-face.
That ‘scouting trip’ is actually what is showing up at
around this time in the BR GPS tracking video… but
any kind of trip out west… even to retrieve Brendan
( which we KNOW happened ) is NOT recorded by
the BR GPS Tracking video.
So there MAY have been ANOTHER UTV involved here.
That would actually explain why Frisby picked Brendan
up in a UTV… but there is no record of that in the
Blue Ridge GPS Tracking.
The TIMES could ALL be right here… but Frisby may
have had to ‘borrow’ someone else’s UTV ( with no
GPS tracking ) just to head out for the second
face-to-face, abort it, and get Brendan back to the
GM vehicles before 1549 when we see Brendan
taking pictures there.
I know this is but a little itty bitty detail in the general scheme of things, but what I’m trying to do by trying to get an accurate timeline of Marsh’s whereabouts, is both to get us to think about them seriously, and, as I have to admit, question the currently assumed narrative that Eric was all that far behind the crew as they decided to head down and ultimately drop into the bowl/canyon.
I am assuming that Eric, when he asked Frisbee to meet him at 3:50 at “the meeting spot,” was at a place where he calculated he could get there on time. I am assuming he kept going there, even after Frisbee picked up Donut no later than 3:30. Thus, I am assuming that Eric kept going down (with no reason not to) and, therefore, was probably close to the crew during the “Options Conversation.”
The meaning of this is that, given what seems to be a BIG assumption on our part that Eric was behind the crew as they headed over the saddle into the bowl, and on other’s parts that he was in front of the crew, I’m saying that he very well may have been, actually WITH the crew.
Yes, Marti. He may have been.
The ENTIRE original question about whether
Marsh was physically with them for the
entire hike south is ONLY based on what
suddenly appeared in the press on the day
the SAIR was released. All of sudden… we
are seeing VIDEOS being taken by
Christopher MacKenzie and we clearly
hear Eric Marsh talking ON THE RADIO
instead of just standing there talking
to Jesse Steed.
Up until that moment ( all summer ) the
only assumption all along is that Marsh
most certainly WAS with them. There was
nothing to suggest he wasn’t UNTIL the
SAIR and the MacKenzie videos came out
within 60 minutes of each other on Sep 28.
So that’s the ‘thin ice’ for ANY theory on
where he might have been.
Could he have even been standing
about 20 feet behind MacKenzie when
those videos were shot… so that we
only hear him over the radio and not
any residual ‘local’ echo of his voice
being captured by MacKenzie’s Canon?
Sure. It’s possible.
I ( me, personally, only me, however many
caveats I can put on that ) still believe that
he HAD been ‘farther north’… was on his
WAY back towards them when the Frisby
meeting was aborted… and either stopped
where he was for the ‘options’ conversations
or was still so far north that he hadn’t
reached them yet… and wasn’t going to
by the time they left to head south.
I still believe Steed and the crew ‘took off’
going south before he had fully caught up
with them… but they knew Eric was VERY
close behind and would catch them at
any moment.
I still believe ( I think it was Mr. Powers )
suggestion that Marsh might have
PURPOSELY decided to ‘lag behind’
and play some sort of ‘lookout’ role.
That is still possible, too.
Something has to explain Jesse Steed
being the one calling in the first
MAYDAY ( and NOT Eric )… and then
we hear Robert Caldwell trying for more
than 90 seconds to raise Bravo 33… and
ONLY THEN do we finally hear Eric come
on the radio ( out of breath, as if he was
running hard to get where they were… but
not from the ranch… not possible ).
I believe that if Eric Marsh, the absolute
leader of those men out there, had been
right there walking with them… then it
would have been Eric Marsh making the
first MAYDAY and he also would not
have said “I’m here with Granite Mountain”
as if he had just finally caught up with them.
I guess that’s it.
Until there’s some other evidence I believe
the theory that Marsh was ‘trailing’ them
during their descent and had to ‘run up’
to their location in the final moments
adequately explains what evidence we
DO have ( and can HEAR ).
In the Gamble video, Marsh says…..THEY are coming from the heel of the fire His voice doesn’t sound at all exerted (possibly the slowest he speaks in any of the videos?)
So I think that could indicate two things
1. He is not Moving
2. He indicates he is not with them, and using the word COMING could mean possibly TOWARDS him (my opinion)
I followed the comments from TTWARE, RTS and WTKTT concerning the possible cut stumps (possibly not) and RTS actually thought it appeared as a pioneer line (P-line). I totally understand the point TTWARE made concerning the cactus, that was my first thought. After I read the Neil/Maclean article (and follow-ups), I started looking at the latest DZ/ post burn pictures posted by IM. I looked at several other photos and cannot find other stobs that appear like those anywhere else around the DZ (Opinion of course) And that particular picture in the Okon folder appears to show the expected descent route ?? So IF there were a group of hotshots that moved down first, improving the route, it could be possible Marsh was with (or nearby) that group. I am not suggesting Marsh was at the Ranch, I do not think so.
Mr. Gabbert made an interesting point in his comment thread saying the dozer road pushed in to retrieve the bodies could have possibly cleared out other areas of cutting between the DZ and the Ranch (I am typing that from memory, apologies if I misread his statement)
Calvin, is that slow voice Marsh or is it the guy who tells GM to “stop hollerin” when they are in front of the flaming front? (Bravo 33? Burfiend? French?)
I tried to ask about this last night, but I was shut down….
Compare those two voices – I’ll be curious to know what you think. Yarnell Gamble at roughly :12 and FULL Helmet Camera (on youtube) at roughly 1:23 and again at 1:52.
The Truth Remains Elusive might chime in on this. Or maybe AZfirefighter is lurking.
Elizabeth, I honestly think it is Marsh. Here is what I think is being said on the GM video …..anyway you could come down and help us get this to go a little faster, but if your commited I understand.
Last part… Structure group, Core, were in contact on tac 1
I believe he is calling or identifying himself as “Structure Group Cordes” – meaning, Gary Gordes, who was the Structure Group guy down in Yarnell – his radio ultimately gave up the ghost. I believe he was trying to communicate with the Blue Ridge Hotshots (who were supposed to come help in Yarnell).
See below.
RTS knows
Frisby. Has
verified it’s
him calling
Structure
on TAC1
calvin…
That last background
audio segment in the
YARNELL_GAMBLE
video is one of the
clearest sections of
the entire audio and
the translation on
that last part definitely
seems to be…
“Structure Core(s?),
Blue Ridge Hotshots,
on TAC 1”.
That is Brian Frisby
himself trying to raise
‘Structure’ Group
and ( apparently )
Cordes on TAC 1.
Robert the Second
knows Brian Frisby
personally… and
back in Chapter 3
he said it was Frisby
speaking.
I asked him if he
was SURE… and
this was his reply…
On January 17, 2014
at 10:28 am
RTS said…
WTKTT,
Since you posted this,
I listened to the video
clip several more
times. In my mind, it’s
ABSOLUTELY Marsh
talking about the “heel of the fire” and
ABSOLUTELY Frisby talking about “BRHS
on Tac 1.” (at the end)
Which means, therefore, that, when we are examining his communications, we need to consider the serious possibility that he was with the crew and not somewhere ahead of them or behind them. We haven’t been doing that.
Yes, Marti. That is true. That has ALWAYS
been true. See some discussions early on
in this ongoing thread where WFF people
were establishing that sometimes these
guys use the radios when they are simply
even within shouting distance of each other.
We DO NOT KNOW exactly where Marsh
was at any point that day… except for the
hike in when Joy photographed him.
Not even finally discovering where Robert
Caldwell’s Oregon 450 GPS unit is, and
( hopefully ) seeing a similar all-day
tracking video like the BR one is probably
going to tell us anything about where
the elusive Mr. Marsh was at any time
that day.
If Marsh was responsible for calling in air drops as div a (if that is accurate?), would he have likely been carrying a gps also?
calvin… to tell you you the
truth… other than arguing
with Marquez about where
a division ‘boundary’ is… and
then making the decision to
switch from indirect to direct
because Collins kept dropping
retardant where he didn’t want
it… I’m not sure anyone is all
that sure exactly what else
Eric Marsh WAS really
doing that day. What I mean
is that I don’t think there’s
any hard evidence that
Air Support was depending
on Eric at all for that line
of retardant they were
laying down north of where
GM was working ( that
west-to-east line we see
in the photos ).
Maybe Marsh was ‘fully’
coordinating that… maybe
not. Perhaps his job was
just to ‘report’ on the drops
after they were made but
it wasn’t his job to be
actually ‘directing’ them.
Either way… I don’t think
Marsh had a GPS on him
that day. Only Brendan
McDonough or Darrell
Willis or any of these living
guys who USED to be
GM Hotshots under Eric
( there are a LOT of them )
could tell us that.
copy that
replying to this:
“We DO NOT KNOW exactly where Marsh
was at any point that day… except for the
hike in when Joy photographed him.”
to answer this. Joy and I saw Eric Marsh all the way up until little after 2pm and he was all over the ridge/mountain area and up and down like a rabbit. He was everywhere throughout that day in that area and Brendan can confirm that as the lookout man.
Sonny, did you ever see him South of GM. If so was he alone or with other GM?
Thanks
sure. He was talking with Steed and others at some points but Joy has the sharp memory of details that I don’t. I will find out later today. Marsh was all over that area. As well at times with another or 2. The only thing here is Frisbee, Brendan, Pilots can give more clarity better than either one of us.
The biggest problem I have with the Blue Ridge interview notes that you posted is that I still can’t even begin to understand them. Which is pretty much par for the course.
SAIR says, as I read today, the call to Frisbee was at about 3:40. This seems to be saying it may have been about ten minutes earlier. Which, all things considered, I think can be realistic. I have NO IDEA what to say, atm, about the other possible ATV. I’m seriously trying to wrap my involvement in this up. Quit making it difficult!!
So I’ve decided to digress, for a moment, after reading all the comments I’ve read today before this one. And then I’ll come back and try to understand this one.
All things considered, including some peoples’ expectations that when I put things out there, wanting feedback, if I’m not spot on, I’m irresponsible, to the complexity of trying to figure out the exasperatingly complex alphabetical soup regarding all things aeronautical before saying ANYTHING, and, given the fact that I’m not an investigator or a lawyer, just a simple person, but one who DOES REALLY CARE about WHAT happened here and WHY,
I’m pretty much at the point of deciding it may be time for me to get back to being a real photographer, who is quite competent, skilled, and talented in what she actually does, instead of an admittedly amateur forensics photography analyst, for which I have absolutely no training, and am just spending enormous amounts of my time trying to use my understanding of visual media to create a visual story of things, something some people here don’t seem to think is all that important to begin with.
And I actually really really really agree with all you have written above.
We’re working around a BLACK HOLE here. One that involves a grand total of about 15 to 20 minutes. That’s the time of what I shorthandedly call the “Options Discussion.”
It’s when we go from Nope, No Way, to On Our Way.
I WANT TO KNOW WHAT HAPPENED DURING THAT DISCUSSION.
It’s the only thing that can possibly lead to that thing we all want to know, which is WHY.
And it’s a discussion that was clearly, by all kinds of things we are all discovering in our various ways (including following our own various paths, which some people might consider rabbit holes, and may in fact turn out to be but who knows??), interspersed with all kinds kinds of other things that were going on at the same time, including but not limited to moving Brendan, moving trucks, moving crews, serious incoming weather reports, a memo from ASM2 (I think), around about then, that the fire could hit Yarnell in one to two hours (with various possible implications of hearing that timeframe), chaos in Yarnell, Air Command and Air Support Module transfers (and which guy is it, exactly, who is connected to which label on the radio??), air tankers running out of fuel in Wickenberg and being grounded in Prescott due to weather, while two of the only four VLATs in the entire friggin’ country are now flying over this cuz it’s all of a sudden SO IMPORTANT, and even Eric Marsh heading to his crew and thinking about weather, his crew, his vehicles, more weather, probably on occasion his wife, where to order air support and when and why (because that was HIS JOB), and I think getting pretty darn close to them, and I seem to be the only person around who even thinks that may be important in this quest to find out WHY. So, yeah, maybe trying to map Eric’s locations may be a rabbit hole. Maybe it isn’t, all things considered.
It’s the ONLY way to get to what ELIZABETH says is her most important question, the WHY, and I think it’s all of ours also. It’s all I’ve EVER wanted to know. Everything I have done almost 24/7 for the past eight friggin’ weeks has been in service to that question. I have NEVER lost sight of that.
And every little picture, sound, location, connection, word, movement, gesture, noise, video, and every little detail HOPEFULLY may be leading (but we don’t know until we explore it) into and out of that BLACK HOLE is necessary, in order to try to weave a web of EVIDENCE (which is being WITH-HELD, as I PROVED, while wandering down what some might have considered a rabbit hole for about five solid weeks).
It’s all about the EVIDENCE.
We have NO IDEA what was decided during that period of time. ABSOLUTELY NONE. We only know the consequences, as I have repeated endlessly. And without knowing WHAT, we can never even remotely get to the WHY.
If there is any way we are EVER going to know the WHY (which WE ALL want to know, not just Elizabeth), we first need to know the WHAT.
And the only way we can know the WHAT, given the fact that the MOST IMPORTANT EVIDENCE of that is being with-held, is by picking our particular sets of dots to focus on to try to connect, and risking MAKING MISTAKES trying to connect them, so we can keep weaving that WEB OF EVIDENCE into that BLACK HOLE.
OK. I will now come back and read your response. And think about it. Seriously, I’m ready (and I need) to retire from this volunteer position that someone else will probably eventually get paid way better money than me for continuing.
Before I do that, I also want to say, I agree with you on the litigation. I’ve worked as the assistant to an Expert Witness (the World’s #1 Expert on the behavior of shock waves in the atmosphere) on investigations related to MAJOR explosions. I DO know first-hand how, when the parties are interested in a financial settlement (which is most common), once they reach that settlement, all the facts leading to it are locked up in a box forever. Which is a real drag when it comes to learning ANYTHING from a disaster.
But as soon as I read those filings reports, the FIRST thing that shouted out loudly to me was how the GMHS families aren’t really in this for the money. They are in it for the TRUTH. And I really trust and support them on it. They want to know the WHY even more than we do. And I know what it feels like to be there. I was once there, too. Exactly 50 years ago.
Marti, did your family litigate, and did they get the information that they wanted regarding your brother from that litigation? (I am very sorry for your loss, by the way. So tragic.)
No, we didn’t. My brother was in, relatively speaking, the position of Eric Marsh (except that he only got himself killed, a helicopter almost crashed, the helicopter medic with a broken leg, and the rest of his patrol trapped on a ledge which they were finally rescued from).
His Scout Master was in, relatively speaking, the position of Eric Marsh’s superiors, i.e. OPS 1 and OPS 2. As in “Go ahead and go there but be sure to get out of danger’s way as fast as you can when you determine it’s time for you to do that.”
The Scout Master was in absolute agony. My dad was on the site with him when the whole thing happened. There was no way we would have, 50 years ago, filed charges against him.
But now is different. If what happened 50 years ago today happened now, things would be very very different.
I was a Girl Scout Leader. If something like what happened with my brother had happened under my watch, I can’t even imagine where I would be today.
I was thirteen at the time and he was fifteen. I tried so much to figure out WHY?????? Why did you do that???????
WHY??????????????????
But only silence was the response.
The only thing I could ever do with that silence was to decide, even if I didn’t know why, I could know what.
And I made that a part of my commitment, when I led groups into the Grand Canyon for ten years, to NEVER EVER do what he did. Even if there was never any way I could know why he did it.
Thank you, so much, Elizabeth, for asking that. I really really appreciate it.
I’m just so sorry for you and your family. What a tragedy. My impression is that, unfortunately, litigation can sometimes make things far worse for the family, such that the family will readily take a small monetary settlement when it is offered down the road rather than keep reliving things by pushing for litigation to reveal the truth.
More important point: I am again so sorry for your loss and that of your entire family.
I absolutely believe that a significant percentage of the families are ONLY involved in the litigation to obtain the truth. In their cases, settling without it, may be out of the question.
WTKTT, what is your legal background or relevant experience regarding litigation? I don’t need specifics (e.g. “I went to law school at Harvard”), but, rather, I am asking for generalities (“I have no legal experience but I watch ‘Law and Order’ or “I have been a paralegal for 20 years” or “I do tech support for government lawyers in DC” or whatever).
Not sure if this was comment meant for me, TTWARE, but I have no experience with litigation. I still believe that SOME of the families are NOT interested in money.
I agree.
You wrote:
“In the Blue Ridge SAIT Interview notes… the time is put
at right around 1530… but that paragraph is lumping a whole
lot of other stuff into that timeframe as well.
1530 ( ish ) would make sense, though.
That would have given Frisby enough time to stop what he
was doing ( back in Yarnell ) and start heading out that
way to arrive at the old-grader location about the time he
is supposed to have picked up Brendan, cancelled the plans
for the face-to-face, and just headed back east.”
But in order for Brendan to have taken the third picture he took, over the GM Sup truck, at 3:49:46, he would have to have been picked up by Frisbee (via my conversations above) about 20 minutes earlier, about 3:30 pm.
Which would have to mean that Marsh’s convo to get Frisbee to get him to meet him at 3:50 at the meeting spot would have had to have happened WAY earlier than 3:30 PM.
Not sure why you are sticking so hard to that
minimum estimated travel time from the
old-grader back to the GM vehicles.
Even earlier in the day… when no one was in ANY
kind of hurry… the travel time from old-grader
back to GM vehicles in the UTV didn’t take more
than 9-10 minutes.
And AFTER the deployment… when they were
really ‘on the gas’… same distance is traversed
in less than 5 minutes.
If Frisby had responded IMMEDIATELY to Marsh’s
request ( as their own YIN notes say, circa 1530 ),
and Frisby had been really ‘on the gas’ in the
UTV… I can easily see him making it out to the
old-grader, picking him up, and getting him back
to the GM vehicles in just 19 minutes.
( 1530 through 1549 ).
Regardless… the only DOCUMENTED time I
can find so far for what you are asking ( When
did Marsh request the meeting ) is that section
in the BR YIN notes.
If that isn’t anywhere accurate… then I don’t
see it time-documented anywhere else.
Only Brian Frisby ( or Brendan McDonough )
might have all the EXACT answers here.
Update: Actually… there is, in fact, this blurb
in the original SAIR document… but I’m not
buying Marsh requesting the meeting at 1540.
I have no idea where the SAIR got that ( doesn’t
even match the Blue Ridge interview notes ) but
this is what they ‘went to press’ with…
Page 22 of the SAIR…
At about 1540, DIVS A calls BR Supt and asks him to meet face-to-face. BR Supt starts heading back towards DIVS A’s location in his UTV. BR Supt hears the second weather announcement as he drives the UTV out Sesame Street to meet DIVS A.
Marti… one more update.
I went back and checked the BR GPS tracking
video again.
AFTER the deployment… the Blue Ridge ATV
made the whole trip from where the GM vehicles
had been parked all the way out to the
old-grader is LESS than 4 minutes.
WTKTT…. I am quite certain that the supt. truck was not parked with the GM buggies.
Do you or anyone know the parking location of the GM supt truck?
No. That has never been fully
determined AFAIK. It MAY have been
right there where what has been
called ‘Sesame trail’ meets the
‘Sesame area’.
That’s where the BR Carriers were
staged until they moved them over
to the ‘Youth Camp’.
That spot is a few hundred yards
north in the Sesame Area where
the GM Crew Carriers were known
to have been all day.
Just to be clear… we’ve never
really known WHAT the official
name of that two-track that leads
all the way out west to the old-grader
( and even on up to the ridge ) is.
I’m not sure it even has an
‘official’ name.
So the ‘Sesame area’ has always
been used to refer to that series
of ‘clearings’ north of Lakewood
drive where both the GM and the
BR vehicles were ‘staged’.
The ‘Sesame trail’ has been used
to refer to the road itself that
runs east/west all the way FROM
the ‘Sesame area’ out to the
old-grader.
Does that make sense?
You could only get an actual
car but so far ‘west’ on that
Sesame trail. That’s where
the UTV’s came into play.
Joy Collura has photos of
‘vehicles’ having traveled some
way west on that ‘Sesame Trail’
road… but they don’t seem to
have stayed out there long.
In one of Joy’s photos… there
are up to FIVE vehicles gathered
out some distance on Sesame
Trail… incuding what LOOKS like
the GM Sup truck… but even
according to Joy ( I believe ) they
didn’t all stay out there very long.
calvin… ignore the ‘reminders’
above about Joy Collura’s
photos of the vehicles.
I forgot that YOU are the one
who has been aware of and
focused on those very photos
for quite some time now.
If you don’t know where the
GM Supt truck really was…
then I sure as heck don’t.
calvin… update on your question
about exactly where the GM sup
truck might have been parked.
I got curious about that myself
and didn’t take but a moment
to put a pretty good location on it.
Now that we finally see all of
Brendan’s photos that were taken
circa 1549, after Frisby dropped
him at the truck… I can say for
almost certain that it is where
I thought it was.
It’s right there near where
Sesame Trail ( the road that
goes east-west to old-grader )
actually meets the Sesame
Area ( the series of clearings
where we know the GM and
BR Crew Carriers were parked ).
That full series of photos that
Brendan took after being dropped
off appear to have been taken
looking north from this spot…
34.231693, -112.775398
It’s actually about 100 yards
in on Sesame Trail from the
Sesame area itself which looks
to be about as far as Marsh
thought he go drive the Sup
truck in safely on that road
before throwing it in park and
going on the hike.
Thanks, could you provide coordinates for BR supt truck parking per BR movement video?
BTW…. I believe Joy took the only photo of Marsh’s truck prior to deployment (that I recall.)
There are several pictures of the BR truck (not towing a utility trailer), but I do not recall any pictures of the BR supt truck towing the trailer except the one at the Ranch House taken by Tom Story.
To add to your point last night concerning BR possibly borrowing another UTV to pick up Mcdonough while Brown was scouting north, BR appears to have had one trailer, So one UTV??
The coordinates Joy gives are taken from a Garmin foretrex 401 wristband. I hope that helps where she gets her information. She takes the coordinates on the spot of areas where we witnessed events or stationed at the time of the fire. We can tell you that the BR vehicles if they were next to the crew bus we never saw that- we saw “near” but not next and we saw the vehicles by Sesame as well moved further North. I found a pink ribbon ball about 3/4 inch in diameter. You can see photo on private link. That was not there the day of the fire when we pass by there so that happened after 1:10pm. I now revised the idea that it was discarded from one of the GMHS because of the bladder bags were found at that same gps coordinates location and someone placed the bags there. Also because 9-18-13 Brett Steuter (OSHA) dropped off from that position to descend to the deployment site and he did not know of the burnt pink ribbon roll; 22 minutes. I understand Joy on her view on timing that event but it sounds reasonable that the pink ribbon was an attraction for the aircraft locators as to their position. We witnessed a rock wrapped with the same pink ribbon near the helispot on the good black area. That amount of tape would appx. what would roll up if burnt into that ball due to the heat. Nearby before the fire was a clean white plastic pvc pipe and you can see the damage it sustained afterwards. Appx what a blow torch would do in a few seconds. That fire could of pass that area in a few seconds with that kind of fuel. Joy is busy today so if anyone can drop me a link about where to find the information about the men in their shelters and who was in and who was out- can you link that to me. The point is you can trust Joy’s location accounts if you can trust a Garmin. I myself can get anywhere by just looking at the land; new area or not. I’ve been a mountain man all my life. Also remember this. That was the second area Joy and I had our 2nd disagreement; strange. Joy wanted to take the 2 track road all the way down to the Helms area by the cattle pond and I wanted to go the way we went on the Congress side for a bit. Joy sat there stubbornly from 12:38 until 1pm. She still did not see anyone coming towards that 2 track at that point. Joy did not want to go up any further due to the steepness, the heat of the day and we were both tired because we put many walking miles on that week and we were drained. It is amazing how that sun can drain you between 1-4pm but that day Joy had temp. readings in the 90’s-107 and kestrel readings 20-43mph that day.
I have now conceded, after reading the SAIR carefully, and taking notes, and recalibrating, that it is entirely possible that Frisbee picked up Brendan at around 5:50 and got him to GM Sup truck in time for Brendan to get to the spot just beyond the Ranch House Restaurant where he took his in-town photo at 4:02 while traveling an average of about 26 miles per hour.
3:50 not 5:50 Sorry I think you made a typo Military Time 1550 and I think your close.
Yes I did make an obvious typo!
Thank you! I’m getting very very tired.
for David T.—
somewhere above Sonny replied to your time of 18 minutes down.
My question to you. We hiked with Brett and Bruce (OSHA) 9/18/13 to recreate our account of how we saw GMHS enter that day for their hike—we hiked with them at nicer temps keep in mind and no smoke or fire and we took them to the lunch spot, fire edge, anchor point, areas on the Congress side, helispot, old grader, ridge, 2 track road, and than we dropped down just as the GMHS did so my question because I did not have the intent to be timed that hike but OSHA was doing there own assessments. Excellent team there. So when you hiked to achieve that 18 minutes did you do the full GMHS hike like we showed them (some areas rocky steep heart thumping terrain) before achieving that 18 minute time stamp or did you just time it going down? You have to remember the day, the heat, the fire, the smoke and the before vegetation some areas mazed-like so the time will always be different unless you had all the factors of the BEFORE part. OSHA had a full day in like the GMHS before they went down—did you? I think you hiked it many times over there but I am asking on the day you timed that 18 minutes is all—
oh and by the way on the 18th no SAIR report was out nor OSHA’s report and every person we hiked with MUST BE so delighted to see our hikes matched to the map of the spots the team put together at SAIR and they never hiked with us so pretty spot on we were of our accounts of everything we saw that day except Wayne and Holly Neill as well as Ted Putnam educated us on a deeper level as well as John MacLean on fire terminology of what we were watching that day and they are the ones who educated us due to the blind spot of our sitting on the much cuttings. It has to feel good to all the ones we hiked with to see the purity in us sharing and it ends up complimenting areas-
We know what we saw-
even the hovering/observing yellow and white helicopter behavior was educated to us by Holly Neill. So you see how important we are all are to each other. We all could not be here today without the people on this wall and for Elizabeth deeply helping out as well as all of you—
RELEVANCE: Forgive me for making what might be an obvious point, but….
I am concerned that we seem to have gotten a bit sidetracked onto minutia from what I had thought was a common goal of many for us. Specifically, my impression is that many of us are here because we want to try to make sense of WHY GM came off the ridge and went into a death trap. The OSHA and SAIR reports do not connect the dots in that regard to the degree that some of us suspect the dots can be connected, and, therefore, we have begun trying to fit the pieces together in the comment threads on John Dougherty’s blog.
There is a limited number of probably reasons these guys left decent safety and went down into a high-risk area. None of those reasons are tied to most of the rabbit trails we spent the past 48 hours on.
I mention this for whatever it is worth. I am not the relevance police – obviously folks here can talk about whatever folks want to talk about (that John Dougherty lets everyone talk about) – but, to the extent that you all want to abandon what I thought was a primary goal, it seems useful to make sure it is a deliberate choice rather than an accidental tangent that was traveled for too long.
If I were the queen of this investigation, I would say that the crucial thing for this ASAIT to do is go back to the videos and listen to them again and again and again to see if they are saying what WTKTT thinks that they are saying. Bill Gabbert at Wildfire Today actually provides the links to all of the videos except one, and I went to the trouble to actually get and post Holly’s video, so the resources are there for the ASAIT to use. We just need to decide if we want to use them. I personally do not think that the overhead voices in those videos say what EITHER WTKTT or John Maclean (Holly) believe that they do. I actually think that they are saying something ELSE that will help us appreciate why GM did what they did. But, without someone other than just me and WTKTT listening to those videos ten or 20 times each, I don’t think we are ever going to get good agreement on what they say, such that, absent Brendan, Cory Moser, Brian Frisby, or someone else coming forward, our search for a more complete understanding of why GM did what they did is likely to end without producing fruit.
Elizabeth, I am listening to the videos, repeatedly. I have been holding my opinion, but I hear the best on Maclean’s video. No offense to Mr. Truth of course. thanks
Calvin, if you are not comfortable sharing your views here, please feel free to e-mail me privately. I’d be curious to know what you are hearing – maybe that will help me hear them better, too.
Also, I have additional materials that I can e-mail to you that might help you think these things through. I will share them with anyone who wants them, but I am not putting them up.
Exactly Elizabeth, I have been focused/refocused on the Mackenzie photos and DZ pictures (and everything that was happening in that crucial period) because it helps me think through the video as I listen.
I would like the additional materials and will let you know what I think I hear soon. I can say I do not hear HOUSE, but instead SOUTH. Also, the voice that says “the guys,um, Granite Mountain” doesn’t sound like Marsh to me either, but I do hear him in the video.
Thanks
Elizabeth…. thanks again for ‘saying what you mean and
meaning what you say’… but let me counter with a few things.
An enormous amount of material has only recently just been
made public… and we also know why it only recently happened.
Mr. Dougherty was waiting until after the holidays to release
most of it. Makes perfect sense.
As interested as I am in this ENTIRE incident ( yes… even
in what you would call minutia )… even I haven’t really had
the time to ABSORB all this new material yet.
I’m (personally) doing my best to do so.
I assure you… no one has ‘lost sight’ of anything here.
What do you think I am listening for in these DOZENS of
videos that have only now recently become available?
Someone ordering a pizza?
Cleaning these audio tracks to even have a chance of hearing
what might have ‘accidentally’ been captured in the background
is a very time-consuming task. I would say I am only even
about half-way done ‘cleaning’ just the ones that have been
released so far… and the full array of AIR STUDY videos isn’t
even online yet.
Of course there is a LOT of controversy surrounding that one
( and only ) AIR STUDY video that has been made public.
( Thank you again for that one… by the way ).
There SHOULD be some controversy because there IS, in
fact, a lot of heretofore unknown and unheard traffic going
on between the principals involved in this incident and
whether or not ALL of the words will ever be fully verified
and clearly heard… what CAN be (already) clearly heard
automatically makes mincemeat of the Arizona Forestry
Commission’s SAIR document and this ridiuculous ’30 minute
blackout’ they tried to sell. That’s a big deal. It’s important.
So there is also nothing wrong with Mr. Powers and others taking
the time to FULLY establish the impossibility of Marsh having been
all the way at the Ranch at the time of Steed’s first MAYDAY.
It is not minutia. It’s important… now that that ‘theory’ has
been ‘floated’ in public by respected WFF people.
Talk about controversy. That was a VERY risky thing for
H&M to publish without even considering all the timing and
the other things that Mr. Powers has been trying to point out
since H&M first published their ‘finding(s)’ only about a
week ago. They may have spent an admirable time listening
to that one AIR STUDY video… but they should have spent
an equally admirable amount of time on the other ‘facts’ ( even
the ones you point out above ) from that afternoon to see if that
one word they thought they were hearing could be supported by
all the other available evidence. They did not.
So as far as finding out MORE about the WHY ( your choice
for focus )… all I can tell you is that I, personally, have
certainly not forgotten about that… and my ears aren’t falling
off here because I’m listening for ‘minutia’.
Question time…
You were the one who first ‘discovered’ that one of these
AIR STUDY videos actually appears to contain the ‘callout’
from OPS2 Paul Musser to DIVSA Eric Marsh. That was
when you posted a query about verifying the radio protocol
sequence so you could be SURE ‘who was calling who’.
That video/audio is still not publicly available anywhere.
H&B included this (supposed) callout from Musser to Marsh
( and they put a time of 4:32 on it based just on the title/filename
timestamp of the video ) in the ‘findings’ they published… but
when they then further published another blog post about ‘How
they arrived at their conclusions’… there was still no link to that
particular AIR STUDY video or any audio from it… and there
still isn’t.
They did, however, list the exact NAME of it as follows…
1. “DivA-Ops Musser”:
SAIT Investigation Record:AO5-20130630: AerialFirefightingStudyPhotosVideos F: PhotosAndVideos: Panebaker:Video:20130630_154232_fire_behavior_EP.MOV
The .MOV extension means it’s an ‘Apple Quicktime’ movie
( and not an AVI file )… so it shouldn’t be all that large?
Do you still have THIS particular AIR STUDY video?
I want to put my own ( good ) ears on it as soon as I can and
see if H&B are right and that all it has on it is the ‘callout’ from
Musser to Marsh… and no other conversation(s) recorded.
Mr. Dougherty’s AIR STUDY links in his dropbox still simply
just say pending. There are still no AIR STUDY originals
there at all and no word when they might appear.
Correction ( and TYPO ) above…
When H&M first published that they had discovered
Paul Musser ‘calling’ Eric Marsh in one of the AIR STUDY
videos…. their own findings put a time on that radio
call of 3:42 PM… and NOT 4:42 PM as I mistakenly
typed up above.
They are obviously basing that 1542 ( 3:42 PM ) time
on the timestamp in the title of the video itself… which is…
1. “DivA-Ops Musser”:
SAIT Investigation Record:AO5-20130630: AerialFirefightingStudyPhotosVideos F: PhotosAndVideos: Panebaker:Video:20130630_154232_fire_behavior_EP.MOV
You missed my point, WTKTT. I don’t think the videos ARE minutia. I think that those videos are CRUCIAL, largely because of the background voices in them.
You DO realize that the MSM ( Mainstream Media )
has simply gone with the H&M findings, right?
No dispute. Treating it as fact that Marsh was
at the ranch.
Now the world thinks 19 men died that day just
because their radios didn’t work and one of
them ran back to them from a ranch just
to die with them.
Apologies if I misunderstood what the ‘rabbit trails’
you were describing above were. I thought you
were complaining about the traffic here trying
to prove that what H&M published ( and now the
whole world thinks is true ) might NOT be true.
We are in agreement.
The newly released videos are (very) important.
But you didn’t answer my question above.
Do YOU still have this OTHER video that
supposedly has the conversation between
Musser and Marsh on it?
Whoops… meant to include just one of the
MSM pickups of the H&M story…
USA Today
Two Experts Dispute Arizona
Wildfire Findings…
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/01/23/new-yarnell-hill-fire-recordings/4796501/
In their article for Wildfire Today, Maclean and Neill say they believe muffled radio conversations show that Eric Marsh, the hotshots’ supervisor, had made it to safety at a cleared ranch compound minutes before the tragedy but apparently rejoined his comrades in a box canyon shortly before flames enveloped them.
So what? Since when has our goal become “convincing USAToday not to believe John Maclean”?
I ask that with all due respect. Perhaps you are seeing something that I am missing.
Also, are you a lawyer? You have given me your view about trials repeatedly, and I wondering if you have more experience than I do in that regard. How long have you been in practice, and in what area (if you are indeed a lawyer)?
I should add – I am not offended that your opinion differs from mine regarding trials – I am just curious if you have more relevant experience than I do. For all I know, you are David Boies or something, and, if that is true, then I might want to consider shutting up and deferring to you!
Even if I was Schiller
and Flexner rolled into
one… it doesn’t matter.
No matter who I am it
should not cause you
to even consider
‘shutting up’.
It’s not a contest.
Sometimes we will
be right… and
sometimes we will
be wrong.
The key is to not
stop TRYING to be
right.
Actually I think the bigger point is that the articles show Marsh to be in contact with fire command about what was taking place and that the radio blackout period was a fiction. The story was always that everyone was unaware of their move. For the first time in the MSM, that is admitted to not be true.
John MacLean has the cache to get into the press. And as far as we know, he wants the truth as well.
Yes.
Do you hear anything else on
there other than just Musser
trying to raise Marsh on the radio?
Do you have any plans to upload
either the whole video or maybe
just another audio + picture?
Do you know if Mr. Dougherty still
plans on publishing any of these
crucial AIR VIDEOS ( I don’t )?
I am still looking forward to you answering WTKTT’s question.
I want to add two more things:
1. Litigation is very, very unlikely to resolve these lingering questions and produce “the truth.” First, it is very likely that the litigation will be dismissed before trial. Second, if it is not dismissed, there is a good chance that it will be settled, such that no fact-rich trial will take place. Third, the nature of litigation is not necessarily to find the truth.
2. For those of you who think that people like Brian Frisby and Brendan McDonough are just going to appear some day and start blabbing about what they know but have not yet said, you are likely not correct. It is far more likely that people who know things will post here, anonymously, as AZfirefighter did. Or perhaps folks will pass information along to people who will then pass it along on this board or via private e-mails. Different people have different comfort levels in terms of communicating about situations like these, and I can imagine that the fear of litigation (or the current litigation) is needlessly making people worry. My personal view is that, if we want people like Brendan or Willis or whomever to speak up, we need to treat them with kid gloves, as opposed to suggesting various theories that impugn these guys and their now-deceased colleagues. Just my personal views, based on what I have seen and experienced in other situations.
spot on, Elizabeth.
Elizabeth… copy that… but I’m going to have to disagree
with you that it is ‘very, very unlikely’ that litigation will
lead to further facts about this incident.
I *might* keep the ‘unlikely’ in there… but I would definitely
remove the ‘very, very’.
I have read ALL of the suits that have been filed ( including
the ones just seeking property damages ).
MOST of these suits are stating specifically that one
of the actual CONDITIONS for ‘settlement’ would
STILL be that “The Truth be told”.
You know yourself that a settlement in a civil action
doesn’t always involve money. There can be
‘remedial action’ attached to any settlement.
MOST of these suits already seem to have those kinds
of ‘remedial action’ requirements even if the defendant
moves for settlement.
I’m encouraged by that. I think you should be too.
Some of these family members who lost their loved
ones that day DO want to know exactly what happened,
and they are seeking the court’s help in discovering that.
We shall see what happens.
By the way… the deadline for the ‘sum certain’ settlement
in the Parker case has now long passed.
Have you heard if that one is going to trial?… or have
the ‘sum certain’ stipulations been met by the deadline?
I wish my ears or my computer were better – I can’t make much out of most of those videos.
I just do not see the mystery behind why Granite Mountain moved. They moved to help in Yarnell, as they were asked to. I think the request was odd, asking a crew stuck on a ridge over a mile away with nothing but green in between to move and help seems odd, and frankly, desperate. I almost have to believe Musser expected to be turned down. But, odd or not, we know the request occurred. A fair question is why did they change their mind. Maybe someone else reached them and “pressured” them, certainly not impossible. But I do not think it is at all far-fetched that Marsh and Steed discussed it and changed their mind, deciding to help. People have been known to do that, ya know. But the idea that we do not know their purpose in moving I think is just not the case.
The harder question is why did Marsh and Steed decide it was possible, i.e. why was it safe to move. I suspect there wasn’t a lot of talk on any radio about that. Marsh had been watching the fire all day and evidently thought he knew what it was doing. He was wrong, but I really doubt there was much chatter about that – Marsh just made a decision. As such, I suspect his thought process died with him.
Maybe the videos will shed more light on the crucial time frame from 3:40 to 4:00, when the decision to move was evidently made. Whatever took place then though, the final call rested with Marsh and Steed.
>> mike wrote…
>> I think the request was odd, asking a crew stuck on
>> a ridge over a mile away with nothing but green in
>> between to move and help seems odd, and frankly,
>> desperate.
I think we have to accept the fact that even the people
on the fire that day who were asking for ‘help’ from
Granite Mountain had no frickin’ idea where they really
were… or what their ‘escape routes’ were up there
( that is documented )… or how easy it was or wasn’t
for them to get ‘back to town’. Paul Musser, especially.
I think there was almost a TOTAL ‘lack of situational
awareness’ on almost EVERYONE’s part that day… or
at least a total lack of awareness of the DISTANCES
involved out there that day.
Example: Even when we hear, in the YARNELL_GAMBLE
video… that ‘MysteryMan’ saying “I’d appreciate it if you
could come a little faster”… Eric Marsh’s response
( in what I perceive to be an exasperated tone of voice )
is as follows…
“They’re comin’ from the heel of the fire.”
I think the alternative ‘message’ that could be read into
that (exasperated) response from Marsh could be read
as “Do you have any idea how far away they were…
and how far they have to come?”
He was trying to make sure the person urging them
to ‘come quicker’ understood how far away they
were in the first place… because he didn’t seem to.
>> mike also wrote…
>> Maybe the videos will shed more light on the crucial
>> time frame from 3:40 to 4:00, when the decision to
>> move was evidently made.
Maybe. I hope so… or maybe ( just maybe ) we will hear
more from the people left alive who DO know more
about the decision(s) that were made.
The only thing that remains a mystery is if the full
breadth of any possible ‘pressure’ being put on
Marsh to ‘change his mind’ is fully known.
It’s already obvious that MULTIPLE ‘decisions were made’.
“No. We can’t spare resources for town. We are
committed to the black because it’s the only safe
thing to do for us right now. Call Blue Ridge.
They are already down there.”
( Less than 10 minutes later )
“Gaggle up… fellas… let’s get to town.”
There is still SOMETHING missing there in those
10 minutes that needs to be ‘discovered’.
Brendan McDonough ( and most probably Darrell
Willis ) can still ‘fill in the blanks’ there.
>> Whatever took place then though, the final call
>> rested with Marsh and Steed.
That will never change.
>> mike wrote
>> The harder question is why did Marsh and Steed
>> decide it was possible, i.e. why was it safe to move.
Maybe they flat-out knew it wasn’t all that ‘safe’.
Maybe they knew it was risky… but ‘danger is our name’!
Maybe they had every reason to believe they had time.
Maybe they just thought they were invincible.
>> mike also wrote…
>> I suspect there wasn’t a lot of talk on any radio about
>> that. Marsh had been watching the fire all day and
>> evidently thought he knew what it was doing.
There is now evidence of that ( if I am right about what
is being said in the background of the entire AIR STUDY
video ).
If my transcript is right on that whole track… then here
is just the loose ‘description’ of what was actually
happening over the radio as late as 4:16… when
everything was going to hell in Yarnell…
Just BEFORE the video starts…
Someone asks ASM2 to verify GM whereabouts.
ASM2 does that… says he sees them ‘behind the hills’.
VIDEO STARTS
Person who asked ASM2 to check on GM acknowledges
what he just heard ASM2 say and wants verification…
“Copy… so behind those hills is where you place Granite
Mountain?”
ASM2 verifies… and expresses concern that they keep
saying they are ‘comfortable’ where he sees them
there ‘on the corner ( of the fire )’… because ASM2
says that is “not credible” based on the fire behavior
he is seeing from the air at that moment ( 4:16 PM ).
ASM2 insists that someone ‘down there’ call them and
at least find out if DIVS A ( Alpha ) is WITH them or not.
Someone does that. Right away.
They ask GM for status.
Marsh just says GM is headed out escape route.
Steed adds “Pushin’ our way down into the structures”.
Someone says “Copy that”
Someone remembers what ASM2 needed to know
and the reason for calling and also asks…
“You with Granite Mountain right now?”
Marsh seems to be the one who replies and says…
“Uh… just checkin’ it out where we gonna jump out at.”
Doesn’t even really answer the question he was asked,
like he was purposely trying to avoid answering it.
( Other unintelligible conversations )
VIDEO ENDS
See what is MISSING there?
At NO time… during these crucial direct conversations
with Marsh/Steed at such a crucial moment ( 4:16 PM )
does anyone even mention a FIRE.
Marsh nevers asks about it.
No one in command makes sure he knows what it’s doing.
Like the FIRE doesn’t even exist.
So I think you are right, mike.
We now might have direct audio evidence that what the
FIRE itself was or wasn’t doing at that moment was
the furthest thing from anyone’s mind… Marsh included.
At 4:16… with Horses already running down the middle of
Highway 89 and people already running for their lives…
you would have thought that would have been ALL
we hear them talking about in these radio convos.
But you would be wrong. They didn’t. Not once.
Mike, I agree with you above, but I need better ears AND better speakers, or maybe headphones? Does anyone have a suggestion concerning this?
I’m in the same boat. My eyes are exponentially better than my ears. That’s why I haven’t stepped up to the plate of examining the sounds in all these videos. I understand Elizabeth and WTKKT calling out for more ears on this, but I don’t see how my ears are the best offering I have for this right now.
Mike,
You and everyone else who has stated it are right, the final responsibility rested with Marsh and Steed.
If only Musser had stayed off the radio and stayed within the realm of his ‘Planning Ops’ position. Div A and GM would have only received one ‘request/directive’ from a supervisor, “hunker and be safe”. Left with that alone, perhaps they would have done it.
mike, wtktt, etc:
I have, ever since I first read it, and being the daughter of a METEOROLOGIST who has told me lots of stories about how pilots, people and everybody else, respond to weather forecasts, found this to be really SIGNIFICANT in my own mind in this whole WHY discussion, even though every time I have raised it, nobody has paid any attention to it. It’s almost as obvious to me as Chris’s Powershot was in that photograph of the Deployment Site.
From the SAIR, PDF page 28, bottom of the page 22, THIS:
“At about 1550, Air Attack tells DIVS A the fire is heading quickly toward Yarnell and could reach the town in one to two hours.”
As the daughter of a meteorologist, who assisted him for 16 years as he served as the “Weather Wizard” for the Albuquerque International Balloon Fiesta, I believe this sentence is critical. It practically yells at me, but I can see why it wouldn’t yell at anybody who has never been in the business of weather forecasting. It’s located in time, right during the critical “Options Conversation” time.
This, to me, indicates a VERY STRONG POSSIBILITY that Eric and the crew may have believed two really important things.
1. The fire was headed to Yarnell and they were needed there. Pretty obvious, to us all, by now.
2. That they had TIME TO GET THERE and do something about it. The silence of people about this has been driving me nuts.
I REALLY think point number two may have played a CRITICAL part in their decision to go from No Way, to On Our Way.
People *haven’t* been silent about this. But those who have brought it up have been drowned out by the other many many many posts.
Perhaps now you understand a bit better my concern about the number of rabbit trails in threads like these….
Yes, but some people might think that THIS is a rabbit trail. We only know whether something is or is not a rabbit trail, when somebody follows the particular dots they are seeing to wherever that goes, be it just another rabbit trail, or something that actually pans out into EVIDENCE.
I was only responding to your assertion about being “nuts” over the fact that people have been “silent” about the weather time estimates. People haven’t been silent – rather, their comments were lost in the sea of comments. That is why I have been trying to make some suggestions on the things that strike me as worth focusing on, to avoid a sea of unrelated comments.
Yes. I understand about the sea. It’s now 5 in the morning here, and I still haven’t finished picking my way through yesterday……
I used to do this kind of stuff a lot on Daily Kos. They designed their software specifically for this kind of long complex forums. Much much easier to navigate and see what’s NEW.
Marti… there was a LOONG discussion about
this crucial time estimate… and what influence
it might have made on Marsh… back in previous
chapters of this ongoing discussion.
It was almost ‘discussed to death’, if I recall.
I was the one who first suggested that this one
single piece of information… coming from a guy
in an airplane who can supposedly ‘see’ what
the fire is doing better than anyone… might
have been the single most important influencing
factor during the ‘discussion their options’
conversation(s).
The upshot of the whole discussion ( at that time ),
if I recall correctly, was that WFF people all seemed
to agree that Marsh would NOT have based ANY
of his decisions on what ANYONE else was
telling him. That he ( and Steed ) would have been
basing their decisions on what they could see
with their own eyes.
I’m still not sure about that.
I’m just reporting that this ‘time estimate’ was
discussed at length in previous chapters.
Personally.. I STILL think Marsh and Steed might
have taken that estimate seriously REGARDLESS
of what they could see.
As it turns out… Rory Collins ( ASM1 ) was actually
not all that far off… on the 1 hour side… but then
it all comes down to what you think Collins meant
when he said ‘town’. North Yarnell? Glen Ilah?
Only Collins knows for sure and he’s never said
what he really meant at that moment.
Got it. Thanks. I do remember that one, now that you mention it. I came away from it still holding my opinion of it. But I could be wrong, of course….
My two cents…. Marsh wouldn’t be taking advice from someone who intentionally put out his burnout operations… TWICE
TOUCHE!!!!
Absolutely ROTFL!!!!!!!!
I haven’t even thought about that, but yes, now that you said, I think you absolutely have to be right!!!!
THANK YOU!!! You made my day!
I want to cut-and-paste an earlier one of my comments, because I think it can help orient folks who have not recently gone through all of the materials:
In a post today at (January 26, 2014) at 5:28 pm, said:
With all due respect, I think we are going a bit too far into conjecture-land. Allow me to remind you of some of the relevant facts, not necessarily in exact chronological order, that took place between 3:35 p.m. and 4:40 p.m.:
1. Marsh summons Frisby to a meeting, presumably b/c Marsh realizes that they are losing the fire and/or they need a new strategy.
2. The fire crosses the line (retardant), such that Marsh now has a far bigger problem than he had anticipated discussing with Frisby, AND Frisby cannot get to him to have their meeting.
3. Able and Marsh speak, and Marsh explains that the line has just been crossed, such that the towns now face a far bigger threat than they did two hours ago. Up until then, the planes had been focusing for the past hour on the northern end of the fire, but Able, hearing this news of the line being breached, indicates he will divert this resource back toward Marsh.
4. Musser, meanwhile, is with Cordes, out at Yarnell, and the shit is totally starting to hit the fan there. The fire is charging at Yarnell with a speed they did not anticipate, and the chaos is breaking loose. There is a horse running down the middle of the highway, for example. Chaos. PLUS Cordes’s radio is not working well. Musser calls Marsh to see if GM can go to Yarnell to help Cordes. Marsh tells them to call Blue Ridge.
… Marsh isn’t trying to hatch a plan to use a retardant drop to sneak to Yarnell. The retardant drops are to try to help corral the fire that is going toward Yarnell and doing so in a far faster, far more unexpected way than overhead had anticipated.
Was I THERE? No. Do I have information that suggests the facts I relayed above? Yes. Have I tried hard to get some of these materials out to all of you? Yes. Are there still more to get out? Yes. Would I be happy to share all of this if I had some help? Yes.
Thanks Elizabeth, great idea. you said….… Marsh isn’t trying to hatch a plan to use a retardant drop to sneak to Yarnell. The retardant drops are to try to help corral the fire that is going toward Yarnell and doing so in a far faster, far more unexpected way than overhead had anticipated
I do not think Marsh was sneaking anywhere. The SAIR says, few people knew their movements, intentions (not a quote)
And when the person says” Air support ASAP”, I do not think they are specifically speaking of dropping the retardant as a life saving technique, but rather as a larger picture as in keeping the fire out of Glen Isla.
support….. hmmmm
Elizabeth,
Some clarification. Here’s what I pulled from a WTKTT post above (WantsToKnowTheTruth on January 26, 2014 at 1:40 pm said:)
“From YIN notes – Page 15…Interview with ASM2…
We needed to go back to the right flank (16:30 AZ time).
Made 3 practice runs. Painted 2. We came around.
Got a call from Division A stating they were going down their escape route to the safety zone. Didn’t know Division A was the superintendent of the Granite Mountain hot shots. Asked him “is everything OK?” He replied “everything is ok, just heading to the safety zone”. We came around, made a practice run through the bowl, west to east. I was talking to Tom about the rising terrain on exit. Division A clad and said “that is what we are looking for, that is exactly right”. Within 5 minutes of that, they went in shelter.”
The reason I started this was because of the (1) time – 1630 (it’s documented that they are on the move) , and (2) the fact that the Air Support folks were doing “3 practice runs” in Div A (“we’ll get you some air support ASAP”). (3) Marsh tells him they’re on the move “going down their ER to the SZ” (documented) which puts them at least in the top of the bowl off the mid-slope road. (4) Marsh says everyting is okay, they’re just heading to the SZ, (documented and to Marsh this IS The Ranch). (5) the ASM2 and Lead Plane (assumed) make a pass through THE BOWL concerned about “rising terrain on exit” (which would place them right across the BOWL with the GMHS still coming down off the top). (6) DIVS A Marsh stating “that is what we are looking for, that is exactly right” (he either saw the run and said this or made this up and said it anyway). And finally (7) they are in their shelters.
I think this series of radio transmissions and actions has nothing at all to do with keeping the fire out of Yarnell, but everything to do with Marsh and is new ER to SZ PLAN, whatever he conjured up in his head that day.
I’m NOT suggesting he was AT the house. And Marsh did not need to be actually AT the Ranch to do all this. He could have done it from the mid-slope road or while hiking down through the brush toward the bowl from above. From where he was supposed to meet Frisby to the Ranch wasn’t that far (20-30 minutes at the most). I’m not sure on your reference to moving the buggies.
And what are you referring to when you mentioned the “Helms videos?” Are those like security cameras?
If I’m way off track on this then I’ll back off. Just wanting to throw it out there.
RTS while I am hearing what your saying there is no way from the meeting spot to the ranch in 20 to 30 min. After the fire it was 18 from the saddle to the deployment site. Sonny gave me 11/2 hours down hill to the ranch from where the crew was. thru the canyon. I’ve been working on this with Sonny and Joy and that’s there best guess, If no one went down the 2 track. The crew took over 30 min. from the saddle to the deployment site. and 15 or 20 to the saddle from the black. Just trying to keep all these time from going haywire here.
We have already established this. There is NO reason to believe that Marsh was at the ranch. Folks, you are BEATING a dead horse. Please go see my post up above. I lay out the timeline as best I can.
I concur. If Marsh HAD been ‘ahead’ of the crew, at the ranch or where-ever, he would have been the first one to SEE the fire, AND, the first one HEARD on the radio.
As long as all this is being revisted… let’s go all the way
back to Chapter 1 of this ongoing discussion ( and the
SAIR itself ) and look at the real ‘distances’ involved here.
Page 20 of the SAIR…
Lunch Spot to Descent Point: 0.95 Mi., 1,678 yards.
Descent Point to Deployment Site: 0.27 Mi., 470 yards.
Deployment Site to the BS Ranch: 0.38 Mi., 677 yards.
Lunch Spot to BS Ranch: 1.06 Mi, 2,825 yards.
NOTE: The ‘Lunch Spot’ referred to in the SAIR is not
the exact same ‘final resting spot’ where the MacKenzie
video was shot and from where they actually departed
for the final trip south to the canyon… but it’s close
enough for this number crunching to assume…
Lunch Spot = Anchor Point = Meeting site = Resting spot.
All of these ‘places’ were close enough together up
there that day to not affect the distance/travel time
all that much. ( Give or take some seconds, but not
minutes ).
I am going to call this place where they actually left
for that final trip south simply “The Departure Point”.
The SAIT’s own ‘timed walks’ gave these numbers…
Left Departure Point: 4:05 PM
Arrived at Descent Point: 4:20
Time for that leg of the trip: 15 minutes
Left Descent Point: 4:20 PM
First MAYDAY from Steed: 4:39 PM
Time from Descent Point to Deployment area: 19 minutes.
So according to the SAIR… the ‘whole trip’ for that line
of 19 men walking singe file from the ‘Departure Point’
all the way down to the ‘Deployment site’ was…
15 + 19 = 34 minutes.
calvin already computed the ‘change’ in their forward
rate of progress from the two-track road versus when
they started slugging down into the canyon.
For that ‘descent’ leg of the trip… they only covered
470 yards in 19 minutes. That’s a ‘travel rate’ in
the canyon itself of only…
24.7 yards per minute
.41 yards per second
74 feet per minute
1.24 feet per second
So at that rate of travel in the canyon… the extra 677
yards from the Deployment site to the ranch would
have taken ANOTHER 27.4 minutes.
So…
Departure Point to Descent Point: 15 minutes
Descent Point to Deployment site: 19 minutes
Deployment site to BR Ranch: 27 minutes
Total trip time: 61 minutes ( 1 hour, 1 minute ).
All of that, of course, is for a line of 19 men fighting
their way through the canyon and trying to stay
together. Not easy.
Tex Gilligan himself has said that a single person on
their own ( like Marsh possibly scouting ahead ) could
make better time than a line of 19 men in that brush…
but how much better? Subtract, maybe, 20 minutes?
That still puts the total travel time even for one person
at at least 40 minutes ( at an exhausting pace ).
I am disputing your time from the DZ to the Ranch. There is NO way that it takes 27 minutes to travel 677 yards (your figures). Much LESS than that.
RTS… if it took them 19 full minutes to only
travel the 470 yards from the ridge down
to where they died… then assuming they
didn’t significantly ‘speed up’ on the last
push to the ranch… then yes… it still would
have taken them another 27 minutes to
go the additional 670 yards.
I purposely did NOT try to include any
kind of ‘increased rate of travel’ just
to show the ‘baseline’.
All that means is that that is probably
the high side of how LONG is would
have taken.
Dispute away.
Absolutely no offense taken.
Do you think their rate of travel might
have increased after they passed the
deployment site?
From what I believe I have heard Tex
and Joy say… the density of the brush
only got even WORSE on that final
670 yard stretch to the ranch.
Sonny new to that area 6-8-13 (I have hiked it almost a decade- huge difference) and he was hiking it because due to my health concerns I wanted to be closer to home/family/friends and the very reason we disagreed at the same gps coordinates where the men ended up dying is because I did KNOW that terrain and not just because I was on one of my hikes when I bumped into Thomas Maiden (Yarnell local man named SNAKEMAN) and Frank Serros who relocated 48 rattlesnakes on 1 visit to that section so I was not going up that area crawling under manzanita and getting shredded by cat-claw in that dense maze-like terrain when light had not yet come up and so just because Sonny says something because he hikes like a mountain goat and can wallow through anything that a normal folk would not—snakes or not—he never scopes the area and just goes—-not me. He can tell you the times of the aftermath yet no one here including him can tell you the times before the fire took it all away except me, a local rancher on his horse with his dogs, a local jogger, the Helms, some local atv enthusiasts and a few walkers/bird lovers/prospectors/off the grid folks/herpetologists/hunters can state that terrain BEFORE—oh and let’s not forget the State Forestry and Yarnell Fire Dept who had a grant in recent years to clear that area out but failed to use the grant—why??? So please remember the BEFORE vegetation and its maze like qualities factored in as well. thank you. Also remember RICK MACKENZIE who’s family has lived here 150+ years and his statement backs up mine.
I retract my statement Above to RTS Though I believe WTKTT time is a little short. Also he is saying that on the 2 track to the ranch would have taken about a Half hour based on the time to the saddle. sounds a little optimistic to me. The 2 track would have saved there lives???
Bob Powers-
We have taken Fire historians and lead fire fatality investigator/smokejumper Ted Putnam and the way you say was reported to me because I take people that area because that was the place I wanted to go down but Sonny disagreed and the above men agree with Sonny—worse tunnel chute than the canyon they all said to me. They all said Sonny made the right choice. I gave you all the legal coordinates now tonight and let me say my knees/ankles don’t feel it was the right choice but hey we are alive I reckon. Staying in the black or ride the Congress side for awhile.
Reply to Bob Powers post
on January 26, 2014 at 9:38 pm
>> Mr. Powers said…
>> I retract my statement Above to RTS
>> Though I believe WTKTT time is a little
>> short.
Those are not MY times posted above.
The times/distances come straight from
the Arizona Forestry SAIR document.
If you apply the same rate of travel THEY
determined for a single line of 19 men
traversing that canyon… then the times
are all correct ( based on THEIR numbers ).
>> Also he is saying that on the 2 track to
>> the ranch would have taken about a
>> Half hour based on the time to the
>> saddle. sounds a little optimistic to
>> me. The 2 track would have saved
>> there lives???
I already did a LOOONG post about
all this way back in Chapter 1.
If anyone is interested… just use the ‘Find’
option in your Browser over in Chapter 1
of this ongoing discussion to find a
LOOONG post about all that with the title…
THE REAL LENGTH OF THE
ALTERNATE ESCAPE ROUTE
Reply to Bob Powers post
on January 26, 2014 at 9:38 pm
>> Mr. Powers said…
>> I retract my statement Above to RTS
>> Though I believe WTKTT time is a little
>> short.
Those are not MY times posted above.
The times/distances come straight from
the Arizona Forestry SAIR document.
If you apply the same rate of travel THEY
determined for a single line of 19 men
traversing that canyon… then the times
are all correct ( based on THEIR numbers ).
I purposely did NOT try to factor in any
‘speed up’ component because they might
have had just flat ground to cover. Those
are the numbers the SAIT came up with
and I went with those for a ‘baseline’.
>> Also he is saying that on the 2 track to
>> the ranch would have taken about a
>> Half hour based on the time to the
>> saddle. sounds a little optimistic to
>> me. The 2 track would have saved
>> there lives???
I already did a LOOONG post about
all this way back in Chapter 1.
If anyone is interested… just use the ‘Find’
option in your Browser over in Chapter 1
of this ongoing discussion to find a
LOOONG post about all that with the title…
THE REAL LENGTH OF THE
ALTERNATE ESCAPE ROUTE
Robert The Second-
reply to:
I’m NOT suggesting he was AT the house. And Marsh did not need to be actually AT the Ranch to do all this. He could have done it from the mid-slope road or while hiking down through the brush toward the bowl from above. From where he was supposed to meet Frisby to the Ranch wasn’t that far (20-30 minutes at the most). I’m not sure on your reference to moving the buggies.
I COMPLIMENT YOU HERE AND FIRST LEGAL CHANCE I GET I WILL BE SCOPING AGAIN—THE LAST LEGAL CHANCE I DID AND I AM LOOKING FOR EVIDENCE THERE AS HOLLY NEILL KNOWS TO PROVE MARSH WAS IN THAT AREA VERSUS THAT MAZED-LIKE DESCEND AREA BECAUSE HAD HE GONE THAT WAY- HE WOULD OF TOLD THE MEN TO SKIP IT—SCALE RIDGE TOP BOULDERS AND HEAD TOWARDS THE HELM’S—I HOPE SOME DAY TO SHOW THAT OR FRISBEE COMES FORWARD AND TELLS MORE ON THAT.
And what are you referring to when you mentioned the “Helms videos?” Are those like security cameras? YES, ALOT OF FOLKS INCLUDING ME HAVE PROPERTY/HOME PERIMETER CAMERAS AND GAME TRAIL CAMERAS—WE LOVE OUR SPYPOINT W-2/W-3 OUT ON THE TRAILS. REALLY HELPS US KNOW OUR AREA QUICK ON PEOPLE AND WILDLIFE. ESPECIALLY WHEN WE SLEEP PUT UNDER THE MOONLIT STARS WITH THE LIONS, BEARS AND RATTLERS. NICE TO SEE THEM NOT ON CAMERA THOUGH; SOFT SMILES.
I have a question. Can anybody tell me when Marsh asked/ordered Frisbee to come meet with him in the afternoon? Not the meeting time, but the asked/ordered time?
No.
Marti Reed on January 26, 2014 at 5:16 pm said:
I have a question. Can anybody tell me when Marsh asked/ordered Frisbee to come meet with him in the afternoon? FRISBEE CAN—Not the meeting time (MORNING HE DID SEE HIM BUT NOT THAT IT WAS REPORTED YET FOR THE AFTERNOON), but the asked/ordered time?MAYBE IN THE MORNING WHEN THEY MET FACE TO FACE THEY WOULD ASSIGN ONE FOR THE AFTERNOON AT THAT POINT BUT ONLY FRISBEE CAN ANSWER YOU THERE.
( MORE TO SAY—my reply):
How we saw that morning we can tell you what we SAW and you’d have to read the reports to see the times they have but we are giving the accounts of the day as we saw and our times.
Number one, in that morning whoever briefed Marsh reconfirming the bomb-proof safety zone when parked over by Sesame Street; we saw someone in that area but good thing I did not HEAR you say that because that safety zone was next to an atomic bomb zone-not a BOMB PROOF area. That was the first EEEKKKK. That dense area- that unburned fuel??? Next we know Marsh had someone a few times that day with him on the top and even with all the reports, logs, etc we are not seeing you listed, WHY? I can answer you this that between 11:18-11:45 that plane with retardant was ridiculous in how and where you dropped the retardant and I was frustrated along with Marsh. We saw it all from vehicles pulling up to bulldozers hard at work to Brendan looking ill and heading to that awful lookout spot next to so many spotty fires with the weather like it was—very risky. We saw BR in the area, Forest trucks—all kinds that you hear in one of my videos I saw about 30 scouted all around below it seem like– I saw between 10:40 and 11am 2 men coming up the road from the old grader to where it gets rocky and they know the very area I speak of if reading this as accurate account—and leave with 1 more and that was after the retardant drop so just before noon. Saw over by the old grader someone; ???. Not Donut with the black helmet. We watched the fire take that hill in 14 minutes and I am a field gal; desert walker not in here examining photos yet never had anyone say they saw the men in the photos yet but I know they are in some. I know Sonny means well when he mentions Willis that he needs to be in this being they are his men yet here is my thoughts there—add Abel, Musser, Hall, Downey, Sciacca, Cole in on it as well—the analysis they did was a lil’ too late and even though Donut can state this as FACTS because we saw it up close; it was moving spotty and slow in most areas yet the squirrely winds late afternoon was another story. Donut will always be my hero for recognizing the human factor of getting the hell out of there. Someone mentioned survival guilt. When I mention Y O U it is not to anyone here nor these men who I listed above but they do know who they are—they have my answers to the questions I posted. Today, I went up the very steep rocky boulderous cat claw Congress side so I can get you all gps coordinates to the one true legal entrance to see the deployment site “legally” (park either in desert off Stanton) OR park on hwy 89 going up where there on the right is a dirt spot to park & place your legal state land permit vehicle pass in the windshield to prevent one of those red stickers from YCSO. Than head towards gps coordinates elevation 4246ft. N34*12.411 W112*47.231 and make a track route to the where the bags were found (elevation 5522ft 34*13.220 W112.47.530) above deployment site on the ridge (was the bags badly burned?) but make sure you have your state land pass permit with you and ID. Also make sure to look at the site I mentioned earlier above to see WHERE state land has restricted 320 acres and you can guarantee if you are anywhere in the area of Helms, Sesame Street and Shrine area, Maughan Ranch, Baluco, Whitehead; Private Land may not have signs but it well known as private land restricted but cannot be fenced due to agricultural area. Stay away from those private areas as well as the street off the library to get out there. The Yarnell librarian Patti can help guide you a semi-legal entry near Candie Cane Lane & what I mean is its an old undeveloped Cloudcroft subdivision with many private owners leading you to the State Land area. That is the area most go to see the 2 track road but again; state land permit and be careful where you park—a lot of restricted private areas. We were hiking guides in 2013 yet very limited as we told Willis and others so they can get back to real time work and not worry who next the hikers bring out. Yet, it is very well understood upfront any hikes is detailed on the private link as well in 2013 the first 6 months all emails were documented to show the purity of us being 100% transparent of what, who, when…2014, I stopped updating it except for the new accurately time stamped photo was added there and spoke about the evidence we found in 2014. Now for locals and even this cyber world community—no offense taken if I never get an email from you if you require me to be “shhh” about our emails. I got too much things rolling that I have to worry who said this or that and does not want it repeated.
People sometimes communicate to me thinking they are the only ones writing us and Sonny gets thousands of emails and we both have taken the time to write you all always. You all come to me with sensitive emails requiring me to be quiet maybe due to fear of locals knowing you spoke to me or maybe your position in your career or due to your profession really should not be writing me…that is fine. I am just saying I like you either way—if you write me with open book communication or you don’t. I just won’t keep my 2014 having to remember the many hundreds who want us to please be respectful to my privacy because I just have my head filled with too much to wonder who is afraid this is said or not. You can write Sonny all you want on email because at 70, he does not remember it all anyways so you don’t have to worry about him repeating something he forgot. Sonny and I went into Wickenburg after the hike to get a bite to eat—we had a rigorous hike leaving us both aching and he is fast asleep already and I came on quick to leave a novel with the gps coordinates and I hope Frisbee does answer you that simple question. Did anyone see the photo Brent Wachter; meteorologist took 7/4/13 5:12pm of the deployment site? No clean cuttings. There are photos out there in cyber world floating of the deployment area if you just dig—some in strange areas on youtube as well as photo sites. Happy digging!
I discovered the answer while CAREFULLY re-reading the SAIR (thank you ELIZABETH, for recommending that I do that!!!).
On PDF page P 28 (which says page 22 at the bottom, so it gets confusing to work back and forth)
“At about 2540, DIVS A calls BR Sup and asks him to meet face-to-face.”
So, wherever Eric was located when he made that call, he must have been pretty sure he could get to the meeting place in about ten minutes.
And, also, after really really carefully reading the SAIR, (as in I even bothered to print it out), I cede to the SAIR on Brendan’s trip from the old grader to his first photograph in town just beyond the Ranch House Cafe. I now think he could have made that 2.6 miles in in those ten minutes, averaging 26 miles per hour.
I still haven’t quite finished trying to clearly comprehend the alphabet soup surrounding the air support planes, pilots, officials, channels, non-pilots, various responsibilities, names, etc. I find it REALLY confusing. But I’m getting closer. So progress is possible.
And one of these days, I’m gonna drive down to Silver City and meet those two Bravo 33 guys and thank them.
Old school– as air attack I would be saying I see you in the Bowl do you want the drop on the fire or on the ridge above you between the fire and you?
OR Tell me where you are in relation to my plane off my right or left wing I cant see you.
Do you know how far a plane moves by the end of a sentence. THATS WHERE I WANT IT…
I am confused about the relevance of this discussion at this point. Obviously a conversation does not need to be relevant to be had, but, to the extent that at least some of us are viewing these exchanges as part of a bigger effort, and presumably most of you do not have the time to run down rabbit trails, I thought I’d ask….
SPECIFICALLY, my understanding is that we all (except for Holly and Maclean) likely believe that Marsh was NOT at the ranch (e.g. the “house”), from which he ultimately walked back in to the valley into the fire. Therefore, I am unclear if this is part of a broader line of inquiry, and, if so, whether someone could help me understand it.
To remind us, the obvious things that suggest Marsh was not at the ranch are:
1. He could not have made it from being near to the area where he was supposed to meet Frisby up to the ridge and to the ranch in the window of time available between his ASKING to meet with Frisby and the time of the alleged conversation in which he was thought to have referenced being at the house.
2. He never asked for the buggies to be moved to the ranch, nor did he even broach the idea.
3. Nobody anywhere even suggests they overheard him saying he was at the house.
4. He is not on the Helms videos.
I think we are trying to pinpoint some times. from the meeting spot to the deployment spot. But the rabbits are a running lose.
WHY, Bob? That is my question. WHY? For what purpose do you care about having a better time frame than the SAIR or ADOSH gave us? How will that help us?
As I understand it, we want to know WHY they left the black, not the time at which they did it, right? (I am not trying to second-guess you. I am trying to get MYSELF to understand where you are going with this, so that I can go with you….)
With the new scenario our times seemed to have changed as far as Marsh and ?? the sawyers. I think the crew is on or close to the right time frame . I have been trying to find any time that fits Marsh at 1613 at the ranch.
Cant make it match with time and distance.
Great points Elizabeth and Mr Powers.
I am trying to determine if the GMH left the safety zone:
a. together but ahead of Marsh
b. together but after Marsh
c. as two separate crews (one led by Marsh as earlier in the day), with one going in front (or first) to cut a pioneer line to use as an escape route to the SZ.
Holly Neil’s article reports….
“It is likely that Marsh first led a team of sawyers down behind him to improve the route by using a vertical cut-and-slash technique to open up a downhill path. A photo by Granite Mountain IHC crewmember Christopher MacKenzie shows a team of sawyers mobilized and moving south at 3:52. The other crewmembers leave at approximately 4:04 p.m.”
This is significant because she is implying that photo 0887 shows Ashcraft and another sawyer are on the move south at 3:52; however, the photo 0889 from camera and photo 2737 from Mackenzies cell phone put Ashcraft at the “Discussing their options” location up to 10 minutes after the 0887 photo.
Also it seems that we *could* have photographic evidence that were brush had been cut above the DZ coming down the slope. Which *could indicate there was a line cut to make movement easier.
But my question to you and everyone else is “so what”? We already KNOW that Holly’s theory and Maclean’s theory about Marsh being at the ranch or the house is likely wrong. So what are we expending all of this time and effort trying to figure out the more precise times at which certain things happened? I don’t get it. If we are trying to find out WHY GM went down into the valley of death, how does this line of inquiry help answer the question?
Elizabeth, There are only a few places Marsh could have physically have been at 1637 the exact moment he calls for a retardant drop. When only two minutes later he announces he is “here with GM” I agree 100%, Marsh had to be closer than the ranch to be able to return to the DZ within 2 minutes (even with nearly complete P-line?)
So where was he?
Calvin: I have not yet heard in the radio transmissions the 4:37 p.m. confirmation from Marsh of where he wants the drop. My impression is that he is coming down BEHIND the guys, joining them from above, so he has a slightly clearer vantage point to see the plane, but he his still surprised when all of a sudden they are face-to-face with a flaming front. I cannot overstate how quickly that fire is moving in the VLAT videos.
Thanks Elizabeth, wow, that thought just wrenches my gut.
What is your impression that he (Marsh) is coming down behind them based on… no offense of course
None taken. My impression is based on the fact that he could still see the plane but not the fire. Plus he was not the first one to see the fire. Plus everyone seems clear that he was (at 4:02 p.m.) AWAY from the GM crew but HIGHER (on the mountain) than them. I could totally be wrong, but, if he were leading the crew, wouldn’t he have seen the fire first and radio’d first?
I am still trying to calmly put together, as I have been for the past day and a half, a timeline, based on evidence, of Eric Marsh during the period between when he asked Frisbee to meet him at “The Meeting Spot.” The point I need in order to do that is When did he tell Frisbee he wanted to meet him at 3:50.
I am assuming Eric was at a place, at that point, where he assumed he could get down from however he was, to “The Meeting Place” by 3:50.
I’m assuming that, at that time he started down to get to that “Meeting Place.”
I’m also assuming that at the latest time Frisbee could have picked McDonough up in order for him to be taking the photos he took, that pickup time was around 3:20 to 3:30 PM.
I’m also assuming that after that time, Eric had no reason to do anything, all things considered, but keep heading down the ridge, to the point that, possibly, he could have been within shouting distance to the GM crew during the “Conversation about their Options” gathering which Chris has so helpfully documented by his photography.
By my trying to create a timeline of Eric’s positions during all of this, I have no evidence whatsoever that Eric was, at the time of the “Options Conversation,” and from then after, at all that much of a serious distance, away from the crew.
RTS Said…To me, that strongly suggests that Marsh wanted the retardent drop between him and the advancing fire to somehow aid them in their new escape route and new safety zone journey
Yep, Someone told him he was going to get it “down there”, “ASAP”
Does anyone know if there were any retardant drops between Marsh/GM and the advancing fire after Marsh was told he was going to get air support DOWN THERE, ASAP?
See above, Calvin.
there should have been but they laid it North-less residential area versus needing to do it at that point over by Sesame/Helms area—
please remember all the homeowners’ accounts between 4pm-5pm of their home already taken over by fire from Manzanita/Sesame all the way over to Foothill/Candie Cane Lane—I seen so many photos of so many of them so I have seen their eye-witness accounts of their homes engulfed—so to answer you the drop was not made in between the GM and that fierce flame.
Mike
did you pick up my note to you from last night?
I did Bob. Takes a lot more nerve to be a HS super than a doctor I think. But I bet your friend’s training and experience as a HS boss served him well as a doctor.
Bob and Mike,
There was another former Hot Shot that became a doctor.
Ken Eckstein was the Payson Hot Shot Foreman (now Superintendent) back in 1975.
Cool thanks…
WTKTT,
Your post triggered something regarding Marsh’s comments to ASM2. Around 1630 ASM2 and DIVS A conversed “We came around, made a practice run THROUGH THE BOWL, WEST TO EAST …. DIVISION A [called] and said “THAT IS WHAT WE ARE LOOKING FOR, THAT IS EXACTLY RIGHT. Within 5 minutes of that, they went in shelter.”
To me, that strongly suggests that Marsh wanted the retardent drop between him and the advancing fire to somehow aid them in their new escape route and new safety zone journey. It suggests that this was all part of his plan all along. MAYBE.
Yep, I’ve wondered about this, too.
I’ve wondered if that’s why OPS (Abel?) says “we’ll get some air support down there ASAP” in Caldwell’s “hunker down” video. It’s just speculation; I can’t think of any way to prove that was the intent.
All my training and experience would suggest it’s a crazy idea to cross in front of a raging fire, relying on retardant drops to slow it down. But it could explain why Marsh is calmly directing a retardant drop at 16:37, just two minutes before Steed’s 16:39 “we are in front of the flaming front” transmission.
Maybe if I’d suggested or gone along with a plan like that, I wouldn’t be talking about it, either.
Sitta,
It’s crazy but it just hit me today. As far as Abel’s “hunker and be safe” – remember,he THINKS they are on the ridge, in the black, in their SZ. He’s been told by ASM2 that they were moving or on the move or whatever. BUT he’s also got to be thinking when he heard that -‘That doesn’t make sense, they’re ina good SZ and nobody in their right mind would be anywhere else right now.’
And I did not include this portion of the transmission which means he was going to drop right into/across the bowl, right where they were. “I was talking to Tom about the rising terrain on exit.”
It’s just crazy, but it sure seems to fit what he MAY have had in his head.
WAIT, WAIT, WAIT. With all due respect, I think we are going a bit too far into conjecture-land. Allow me to remind you of some of the relevant facts, not necessarily in exact chronological order, that took place between 3:35 p.m. and 4:40 p.m.:
1. Marsh summons Frisby to a meeting, presumably b/c Marsh realizes that they are losing the fire and/or they need a new strategy.
2. The fire crosses the line (retardant), such that Marsh now has a far bigger problem than he had anticipated discussing with Frisby, AND Frisby cannot get to him to have their meeting.
3. Able and Marsh speak, and Marsh explains that the line has just been crossed, such that the towns now face a far bigger threat than they did two hours ago. Up until then, the planes had been focusing for the past hour on the northern end of the fire, but Able, hearing this news of the line being breached, indicates he will divert this resource back toward Marsh.
4. Musser, meanwhile, is with Cordes, out at Yarnell, and the shit is totally starting to hit the fan there. The fire is charging at Yarnell with a speed they did not anticipate, and the chaos is breaking loose. There is a horse running down the middle of the highway, for example. Chaos. PLUS Cordes’s radio is not working well. Musser calls Marsh to see if GM can go to Yarnell to help Cordes. Marsh tells them to call Blue Ridge.
What is my point? Marsh isn’t trying to hatch a plan to use a retardant drop to sneak to Yarnell. The retardant drops are to try to help corral the fire that is going toward Yarnell and doing so in a far faster, far more unexpected way than overhead had anticipated.
Was I THERE? No. Do I have information that suggests the facts I relayed above? Yes. Have I tried hard to get some of these materials out to all of you? Yes. Are there still more to get out? Yes. Would I be happy to share all of this if I had some help? Yes.
Elizabeth –
I hope to hell you are right. Even arranging a retardant drop after you have made the decision to move not really a problem (except it may reveal your belief the move is not really safe). Using a retardant drop as the basis for your move being safe… well I used that legal term before that you yelled at me for using so I won’t repeat it (but I still believe it). And if fire command was party to such a scheme, the state of Arizona will have to print money to settle the lawsuits.
I have thought several times about going there but every one was throwing the retardant at the crew. It is a better option because the Tankers were trying to save the town at that point and the crew had not panicked at that point.
Sitta, It is the only explanation for why Marsh was calmly directly a retardant drop at 1637. My humble opinion.
Will all due respect, Calvin, I disagree. Listen to that horrible, horrible audio (helmet cam) again, and hear how calm Marsh is even as he is saying they are deploying. My impression is that (a) it was too smokey for him to SEE that the fire was right on top of him, initially, which is why he sounded calm in his audio confirming where he wanted the drop, and (b) he is one of those emergency professionals who sounds even more calm and rational the worse the situation is.
He just WATCHED the fire burn through a retardant line. There is no WAY he would bet his safety on another retardant line – he had just WITNESSED that they do not stop this type of fire.
This would be a horrible, horrible rumor to start – that Marsh had deliberately engaged in such a stupid, risky move. Just my opinion, and please take no offense.
Elizabeth, absolutely no offense taken.
you said….
(a) My impression is that it was too smokey for him to SEE that the fire was right on top of him, initially, which is why he sounded calm in his audio confirming where he wanted the drop.
Are you saying Marsh couldn’t actually see the aircraft (B33?) when he says “that is where we want the retardant?
(b) he is one of those emergency professionals who sounds even more calm and rational the worse the situation is.
Yes, I agree
…He just WATCHED the fire burn through a retardant line. There is no WAY he would bet his safety on another retardant line – he had just WITNESSED that they do not stop this type of fire.
STOP.. no.. slow down….possibly!
Is there any evidence there were any retardant drops made between GM and the fire line we see in the Mackenzie photos and videos?
Thanks
Elizabeth,
I was refencing RTS’s original comment, which quoted in ASM’s statement that at 1630 they flew west to east through the bowl. This was within minutes of GM’s deployment, and as a lead plane, the spotter should have been looking down to see where the retardant was going to hit. Therefore, they should have seen some yellow shirts, either at the top, or within the bowl itself.
typo: should be
…quoted in part, ASM’s…
PLEASE DISREGARD THIS COMMENT. IT WAS SUPPOSED TO GO WITH A COMMENT FURTHER DOWN.
We’ve been through similar conversations several times as of now. That indicates to me that we must be still somewhat confused.
I know I am.
What would really help me, and I think all of us, would be if someone who probably has put together some awesome timelines (ooooh, I don’t know, maybe someone like WTDTT?) would put together a timeline of these conversations. Nothing fancy, but just a general guide to who said what to whom and relatively when.
Trying to keep these conversations organized in my head is only making my head hurt.
…..AND, RTS, ASM should have at least seen SOME of their yellow shirts in the bowl as he passed thru.
ASM2 did say somewhere that he saw them on top.
The Truth Will Always Remain Elusive:
There was a changing of the guard in terms of the air support at 15:58 p.m.
Rory Collins timed out and left, such that the pilot with the dreamy voice and his colleague (Bravo 33) were left with the job of both lead plane *and* air attack. Presumably that means more to you than it does to me, but my general understanding is that these guys no longer had the time to go look for Granite Mountain. They were on the OPPOSITE side of the fire from him, and the fire was exploding.
Does anyone know the name of the dreamy-voiced pilot, who was directing the VLAT, the SEATs, and all of that after Collins left? (I’d like to refer to him as something other than “dreamy-voiced pilot, but there were TWO guys working together, and I am not sure who was who. The dreamy-voiced pilot is NOT the one who tells GM to “stop hollerin'” when they make their mayday call. It is the *other* pilot, who you hear only in the VLAT study videos, which have not yet posted by anyone, because they are *huge.*)
**ACCIDENTLY POSTED ABOVE, SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE**
The Truth Will Always Remain Elusive on January 26, 2014 at 9:00 pm said:
Elizabeth,
I was refencing RTS’s original comment, which quoted in part, ASM’s statement that at 1630 they flew west to east through the bowl. This was within minutes of GM’s deployment, and as a lead plane, the spotter should have been looking down to see where the retardant was going to hit. Therefore, they should have seen some yellow shirts, either at the top, or within the bowl itself.
TTWARE…. Do you think they were referring to the middle bowl or entrapment bowl?
Calvin,
I can’t answer that. Only the one’s in the aircraft know for sure.
10-4
The pilot of Bravo 33 is Tom French, Regional SW Lead Plane Pilot. I don’t know what you mean by “the pilot with the dreamy voice.” I have no evidence whatsoever the the pilot of Bravo 33 is saying anything during this.
The person who is actually speaking, and interacting at this time, as Air Support (ASM2) is John Burfiend, Regional Aerial Supervision Manager for the Southwest Region. You might want to check him out.
I’m kind of thinking, as a response to your posts, that maybe you need to calm down a bit.
Marti, with respect to your first two paragraphs, read the SAIR and the ADOSH report and the material that was released with them.
OK I am a dumb ass here —Why are there 2 friqing OPS talking to ground forces at the same time on this, who the hell is in charge here?????
Someone enlighten me please, maybe I missed this. Where were OPS1 and OPS2 physically at this time? Were they in the same place? In the same room? Did they talk to one another?
When I talked with Musser on July 1st, he told me about the 1600 radio conversation with Marsh telling them they were on a ridge in the black, in good black. AND the radio transmission between OPS Abel and ASM2 about a crew in a SZ is fairly well documented.
I know that OPS Abel was on the move in a vehicle somewhere and not sure about where Musser was. They were apart from each other for sure. So given that, they couldn’t just look at each other and ask the other to ‘take care of that for me.’
So you’re not a dumb ass and this would easily be possible with them split up.
Bob,
OPS Planning should have stayed of the radio, PERIOD! Both OPS were acting like Field OPS all day and look at the result we are left with. BUT, the blame for THAT, falls with THEIR supervisor, who let it happen, as well as, themselves. I suspect that in any other situation where this 2 OPS scenerio has existed, there was only ONE OPS directing the field troops all day.
TTWARE,
That’s how it’s supposed to work. OPS takes care of the line operations and Planning OPS does all the ordering of resources and the like. Not so much so June 30th.
Or the old hotshot 6 code WHO THE HELL IS THE GUY ON THE WHITE HORSE THAT JUST SHOWED UP?
In the civilian world, the question is:
You mean that bald guy with the mustache?
My understanding is that Musser upped his “field” direction (e.g. issuing orders on the radio) when the shit hit the fan on the north end of the fire, where Able was. Musser was down with Cordes, in Yarnell, where it was – at least for 15 minutes or so – less frantic. Then the fire turned hard toward Yarnell, and Musser then had his hands full.
Elizabeth,
That all may be true, but there is still a chain of command and an ICS, and you don’t flush all that just because the shit is hitting the fan. I don’t think anyone can point to an instance where Musser freelancing as a second Field OPS, had a positive effect anywhere. If anything, it just compounded the confusion.
Exactly.
I don’t think your questioning means you’re a dumb-ass here. Not at all!
WTKTT,
I thought the 34.226892, -112.789131 coordinates were based off of the BRHS GPS unit and NOT a cell phone, so that’s why I used that one. And it looks pretty similar to where their morning handline anchored of the mid-slope road leading to their SZ.
And the GMHS SZ coordinates I thought were derived from one of their cell phones? Could be mistaken on that one.
So if the SZ coordinates are in line with the coordinates listed above in this post are close to each other (wihin 200 yards) that’s where Frisby and DIVS A were to meet that afternoon (but didn’t). Does that make any more sense?
I’ve never seen any coordinates given for “the GMHS SZ.”
Reply to RTS post on January 26, 2014 at 3:44 pm
>> RTS said…
>> I thought the 34.226892, -112.789131 coordinates were
>> based off of the BRHS GPS unit and NOT a cell phone,
>> that’s why I used that one.
Yes. They are.
I believe the EXACT spot indicated in the BR GPS Tracking
video for EXACTLY where the ATV was parked for 31
minutes is EXACTLY here…
34.226892, -112.789131
…right by that big pile of rocks.
That is not to say that Marsh/Steed Frisby/Brown didn’t
‘walk up farther’ towards the helispot for a better view
down below while they had their meeting. Frisby would know.
That’s just the EXACT spot that they left the ATV parked
for 31 minutes during that 11:54 to 12:25 face-to-face.
>> RTS also said…
>> And it looks pretty similar to where their morning handline
>> anchored of the mid-slope road leading to their SZ.
Yes. It is. It corresponds almost exactly to where the SAIR
has always been showing THEIR little ‘red dot’ labelled
‘anchor point’.
>> RTS also said…
>> And the GMHS SZ coordinates I thought were derived
>> from one of their cell phones? Could be mistaken on
>> that one.
I’m still not *quite* following you there.
SZ means ‘Safe Zone’… right?
GM’s ‘Safe Zone’ that day was considered to be ALL of
the ‘cold black’ that was already there from the day before.
That’s a HUGE area… so I’m still not quite sure what you
mean by exact ‘GMHS SZ coordinates’.
That could only be described with a whole bunch of GPS
coordinates that would encompass that entire ‘cold black’.
If you are wondering if this ‘cold black’ ( SZ ) actually extended
all the way to these points like ‘the meeting spot’ and the
‘anchor spot’… the answer there is YES… it did.
>> RTS also said…
>> So if the SZ coordinates are in line with the coordinates listed
>> above in this post are close to each other (within 200 yards)
>> that’s where Frisby and DIVS A were to meet that afternoon
>> (but didn’t). Does that make any more sense?
Yes ( I think? ).
200 yards one way or the other up there doesn’t much matter
when it comes to where Brian Frisby thought he was supposed
to meet Marsh. I believe the whole point of this thread
( somewhere back up there ) was simply that the second
face-to-face requested by Marsh could NOT have been
scheduled for any place other than where the first one
took place because there was only ONE way to ride all the
way up to where the anchor point was on an ATV… and
that’s the way Brian already came earlier in the day.
The ‘anchor point’. The place where their handline began.
All one and the same place.
Even the ‘lunch spot’ was within 200 yards of this point
where the ATV was parked that day. That entire area right
up around there is where they were ‘working’ all day that day.
I completely agree with this.
Only question, because I really am trying to create a map of GMHS and Eric Marsh, where is this thing that gets called the Lunch Spot? Is it even real? Do you have a pin for it, or is it something someone made up that has no real value in this discussion?
Reply to Marti Reed post
on January 26, 2014 at 8:24 pm
>> Marti said…
>>
>> Only question, because I really am trying to
>> create a map of GMHS and Eric Marsh, where
>> is this thing that gets called the Lunch Spot?
>> Is it even real? Do you have a pin for it, or is
>> it something someone made up that has no
>> real value in this discussion?
Yes, Marti. It’s a real place.
See Page 20 of the SAIR document.
It is clearly marked and it is, I believe, the spot
where the SAIR investigators actually found
evidence of ‘lunch’ like garbage and whatnot.
I believe even Tex Gilligan says he found some
‘garbage’ at this location. Evidence of someone
having FISH instead of just an MRE, or something.
I forget where I read that.
It is about 100 yards almost due north of the
spot where the BR ATV was parked for 31
minutes. Large pile of boulders.
Pretty much exactly here…
34°13’42.30″N, 112°47’18.94″W
Thanks!
Pretty much exactly here…
34°13’42.30″N, 112°47’18.94″W
I am missing something big time……when I put the corroidenates in Google Earth it pins a spot about 3 mile north west of where the crew was working….what am I doing wrong?
There’s definitely a certain google maps weirdness going on and I have no idea what it is. And, yes, when I typed in those coordinates just now, they were totally out of the zone.
I have a spot I thought I had just copied and pasted from WTK’s comment above, and labelled Lunch Spot, right after he posted it. And it looked just fine.
After you wrote this, I looked at my map, and for some reason the spot, that looks just fine, but it has a different set of coordinates!!! I have no idea what’s going on.
The coordinates that are on that pin that I made having copied and pasted WTK’s coordinates from his comments from above are now showing this:
34°13’42.30″N, 112°47’18.43″W
I have no idea what is going on. What do you think, WTK???????
I have no idea why, but it seems to want to attach those coordinates to the nearest (unnamed) road.
I have more success if I enter the coordinates this way:
34 13 42.30, -112 47 18.43
But I still cant tell you what’s going on with the first set of coordinates, and why it doesn’t just give you a marker on the terrain.
WTKTT and Marti,
You both said “That spot where it was fully ‘parked’ for 31 minutes is exactly here…34.226892, -112.789131″
Dang. When i plug those coordinates in on Google Earth, it’s actually south of the “options convo” spot as indicated by Chris’s coordinates via his GPS for it as indicated by his Iphone. They are:
34°13’38.99″N, 112°47’24.00″W, which looks to me to be exactly right where they belong.
The place I was kinda sorta think the meeting spot was here, up just above the place where the focked-over burnout happened:
34°13’54.62″N, 112°47’31.16″W”
I have plugged all three of these into GE and scrolled through and I’m kinda inclined to think the “meeting place” was the first one above. If someone could please post the GMHS SZ and luch spot GPS I can narrow it down.
Frisby told me the other day that he was going to meet Marsh where their handline met the mid-slope road, and so I think the one that looks the closest to that is the first one (34.226892, -112.789131) where the BRHS ATV sat for 31 minutes.
So please post the GMHS SZ coordianates. Thanks.
I think both you and Marti might be getting ‘thrown off’ somewhat
by putting full trust in these iPhone GPS coordinates.
Let me explain how GPS works on the civilian network and
on these low-power smartphones.
There is always a STARTUP MODE for the GPS chips on
these low-power devices. Modern smartphones don’t have
the battery horsepower to keep the GPS chips ‘awake’ even
when the unit is powered off.
So when you POWER ON your smartphone… even if you
have GPS turned ON… it’s going to take anywhere from
30 seconds to perhaps even 2 minutes before that little
low-power thing has an accurate GPS fix.
It’s all based on the number of satellites that are currently
‘over the horizon’. On the civilian GPS system… these
are LEO ( Low Earth Orbit ) puppies and they are constantly
‘appearing’ and ‘disappearing’ to/from the horizon line.
So when the smartphone GPS chips power up… they start
looking for LEO satellites ‘over the horizon’. The moment
even ONE is located… it will supply some coordinates…
but they will NOT be accurate. The moment the SECOND
satellite is located… things get a little better… but don’t
put money on it. Once the THIRD is located… now you’re
getting CLOSE… but don’t start smoking cigars yet.
Most smartphones aren’t considered totally accurate until
at least FIVE satellites have been consulted for GPS
coordinates. That’s when you can finally trust not only
the lat/long… but the ‘speed’ and ‘direction’ values as well.
So every smartphone is different… some are better than
others… but there is ALWAYS a ‘startup time’ involved.
So what I am saying is that if MacKenzie did NOT have his
iPhone ‘powered on’ all day… and he just took it out of
his pocket and powered it on to take a photograph…
…the GPS chips might still have been ‘powering up’ and
might only have had minimally accurate GPS info by
the time he ran his Camera APP and took a picture.
The Apple GPS chipsets are actually known for having some
of the worst ‘startup’ times for all the smartphones on
the market. I believe they improved that for the iPhone 5
but the iPhone 4 and 4s still need that extended ‘power on’
time to get a REALLY GOOD GPS fix.
More about this later.
I think something is just not right about BOTH the GPS and
the TIME on that MacKenzie iPhone.
Copy
I’m curious. i’m getting what you and Sitta are saying about the likely problems with Chris’s iphone gps (and that’s doubled by the fact that he only turned on the GPS towards the end of the shoot).
What do you see as the possible problem with the TIME?
And I’m still waiting breathlessly for your coordinates as to where you think this gathering around the radios took place.
>> RTS wrote…
>>
>> Frisby told me the other day that he was going to meet
>> Marsh where their handline met the mid-slope road,
Makes sense. That ‘description’ would be, for all intents and
purposes, the actual “anchor spot” that is referred to in
all reports and all documentation.
Is this the FIRST ( Noon-ish ) face-to-face that Brian was
mentioning… or was he talking about the second requested
face-to-face… or did he actually say that BOTH of those
were to be the same exact place ( the anchor point )?
>> and so I think the one that looks the closest to that is the
>> first one (34.226892, -112.789131) where the BRHS ATV
>> sat for 31 minutes.
By the way… has Frisby ever mentioned what that heck that
spot is on Blue Ridge’s own GPS tracking video labelled…
“Mystery Panel”?
Their ATV actually STOPPED right on that “Mystery Panel”
spot ( near the anchor point ) at least TWICE that day.
>> RTS also wrote…
>> So please post the GMHS SZ coordianates. Thanks.
Not sure I understand.
Are you asking for GPS coordinates for the ENTIRE
SZ ( Safety Zone ) up there?
I’m not sure that’s ever been fully plotted with GPS boundaries.
I totally messed up on the “meeting spot” on that. My bad. I did that because I was assuming, as everyone was saying, that Marsh had to be way up there near the “top of the mountain,” and when I saw that road running in that direction from the old grader, I guessed that must have been where everybody was talking about. That’s also what led me to believe, erroneously, that that strip of red over that area had been GM’s dumped-upon burnout, when it was actually left over from the day before. I still don’t know where GM’s burnout was on the m map. But I’d really love to!!!
And, as WTKTT wrote, based on the BR GPS video, the ATV did, at first try to go up that way to get on the ridge for meeting, but they couldn’t. So they had to cut back south via the other two-tracks.
By GM SZ coordinates, I’ll defer to your earlier statement about whether there can be a safe zone without a true escape route to it? It appears, via the consequences, at least some part of the time it meant where they were, and some part of the time it meant Boulder Creek Ranch.
WTKTT some confusion……
OK Somebody jump in here if I am old and wrong.
There is no OPS chief Planning
There is a PSC Planning Section Chief. In charge of plans on the fire.
OPS is a designator for Operations Section Chief only.
Which handles all line operations under the IC Incident Commander.
Use to be the Old Line Boss position. Until ICS came to be.
Hoping for clarification here.
I posted exactly what was printed at the top of the
ADOSH investigation for who was supposedly who that day.
Page 12 of the ADOSH report…
Yarnell Hill Fire Management Positions
Todd Abel – Operations Section Chief 1 (OSC-Field)
Paul Musser – Operations Section Chief 2 (OSC-Planning)
There is also this that I just now noticed from the WFAR
report contracted by ADOSH. It is specifically noting when
ASM2 was talking to ‘Field OSC’ ( Abel ) versus ‘Planning OSC’
( Musser ) that day…
WFAR – Page 15
At 1600, the fire reached Yarnell, Arizona and evacuations were
underway. About this time, the ASM2 overhears radio
communication referring to a safety zone.
ASM2 contacted Field OSC to clarify the exchange.
Planning OSC confirmed that the GMIHC was in “a good place,”
in the burned area.
So… what’s weird about THAT is that we now hear from
the Wildland Firefighting Associates Investigators that it
was Todd Abel who verified the ‘saftey zone’ thing with
ASM2… but it was Paul Musser who was saying ( at 1600 )
they were ‘in a good place… in the burned area’.
After 20 years nomenclature changes. It is what it is.
WTKTT,
It was both OPS Musser calling them about 1600 with Marsh telling them they were on a ridge in the black, in good black AND the radio transmission between OPS Abel and ASM2 about a crew in a SZ. They BOTH occured about the same time or in close proximity.
Exactly… but we still don’t know which conversation
came FIRST. The OPS1 Abel one… or the OPS2
Musser one. I think that matters.
Current assumption?
Circa 3:50 PM … ( Caldwell video )
OPS1 Abel – Hunker and be safe
Time still unknown ( but after 3:50 )…
OPS2 Musser – Can you spare resources?
GM replies “No… we are hunkering and safing”.
No more than 10 or 13 minutes later…
No hunkering, no safing… heading south to die.
We need a TIMESTAMP on that Musser call.
Holly Neil reported in her article Discoveries in Yarnell Hill Fire recordings provide new information about location of Eric Marsh …..
The first communication at 3:42 p.m. is brief.
“Division Alpha, Operations Musser,” indicates that Musser called Marsh on the radio. This may be part of an exchange referred to in the ADOSH report, which indicates that sometime between 3:45 and 4:00, Musser requested that Granite Mountain IHC send some resources down to Yarnell – and that the hotshots refused this request.
Ah… okay… must have missed that.
This must be the same Musser
‘callout’ to Marsh that Elizabeth said
weeks ago she thought she was
hearing in one of these AIR STUDY
videos. I didn’t know if H&M had
‘found’ that one yet or not.
I could accept that Musser called
before Abel… but I think 3:42 sounds
a little early. That would (supposedly)
be before Bredan even called to
say his trigger point had been met.
That actually brings up another
question that hasn’t really been
answered yet.
WHEN did Marsh and Steed really
know and/or realize that everything
was going to crap?
Was it the moment Brendan called
and said “I gotta get outta here”…
or were they perfectly aware that
was about to happen and were
just waiting for Brendan himself
to realize it?
They had ‘eyes on the fire’ as well.
They could see it making a good
push. So WHEN did they realize
they really were either going to
need to ‘hunker and be safe in
the black’ or also realize they
had blown any chance to get
out of there the way they came in?
If the exchange with Musser was
at 3:42 and there response was
already “No. We’re going to stay
here and be safe in the black”.
That actually means they made
that decision even before they
heard from ( or tried to contact )
their own lookout down there in
front of the advancing flames.
I think it’s possible there might
have been MULTIPLE contacts
with Musser around that time.
One of them might have been
the 3:42 one… but there may have
yet been another one AFTER
the Abel call… AFTER Brendan
had bailed… and AFTER Steed
and Marsh had come to the
realization that it was all going
sideways.
WHOOSH!
Remember, Brendan’s third photo, 20130630_154947.jpg, taken from the GM Sup truck on a bulldozed segment of Sesame Street, is taken at 3:49:45 pm.
We have long ago determined that, in order for Brendan to have been shooting his photos, the latest time he would have been picked up by Frisbee (well after he determined his “trigger point had been met) was around 3:20 to 2:30 PM.
Typo alert, I meant 3:20 to 3:30 pm.
Followup…
calvin… I see exactly what you are
referencing above now.
That quote from Wildfire today
is there… but H&M don’t mention
anything in the original article
about where they were getting that,
or why they felt it was 3:42.
It wasn’t until the followup blog post
at Wildfire Today that H&M said
where that Musser callout to Marsh
was supposedly heard…
From the followup blog post.
1. “DivA-Ops Musser”:
SAIT Investigation Record:AO5-20130630: AerialFirefightingStudyPhotosVideos F: PhotosAndVideos: Panebaker:Video:20130630_154232_fire_behavior_EP.MOV
However… while we Elizabeth has
posted the OTHER AIR STUDY
video with the other conversations…
I still haven’t seen or heard this
one that H&M says has the
Musser callout in it.
I see the TIME on it ( 1542 ) and
if it’s in that video I believe that
timeframe/filename/timestamp
can be trusted… so that’s where
H&M were assuming 3:42… but
I still haven’t seen the actual
video/audio surface anywhere
so that others can put some
ears on it. I hope that happens.
Maybe all that is there is really
the ‘callout’ from Marsh to Musser
and no other conversation.
Maybe not.
Some of us have better ears.
Copy that
I think you must mean the callout from Musser to Marsh. At 4:42. Which was WAY after McDonough’s decision that his trigger points had been compromised. Because he was picked up by Frisbee no later than 3:30.
That is not true, Marti! Where are you getting your perception of how long it took Brendan to get to the truck to move it?
By his photograph. 20130630_154947.jpg. Which was the third photograph he took from the Granite Mountain Supervisor’s truck at 3:49:46 PM. I estimated, and others collaborated on that estimation, that it would have taken that amount of time to have been picked up by Frisbee on the ATV and driven to the truck and then he drove a bit to that location, in order to be there by the time he took that photograph.
And after that, to have gotten to the place in town where he shot three more photographs.
Why are you estimating it took so long to get to the site of the 3:49 photo?? I would have estimated a few minutes, not possibly up to almost a half hour!
Marti, Do you know where Marsh’s truck was, and do you know where McDonough’s1549 pictures were taken?
Thanks
OK. We don’t know where Marsh’s truck was parked.
Brendan’s first photo in town was taken at 4:01.
34°12’56.72″N, 112°45’15.61″W.
How long do you think it would have taken to get picked up, ATV-d over to Eric’s truck, get the truck going, get the radios going, move out, drive the winding dirt road to the winding paved roads leading to town, turn left on 89, drive past the Ranch House Restaurant, and take a picture (a distance of 2.69 miles)?
I’m totally ready to stand corrected. That’s why I asked for peoples’ opinions on January 22 at 2:40 pm.
I’m NOT estimating an hour. I’m estimating 15 minutes!!!
Correction 15-20 minutes.
I agree.
The creation of an OPS Planning Chief may have resulted from the Short Team showing up without a Planning Section Chief. They may have just been trying to plug that hole, one of many that they never got fixed before deployment.
WTKTT,
In your filtered and updated version of the audio (says ‘house’, or doesn’t say ‘house’, conversation), I noted that ASM2 stated that GM had, “….repeatedly stated they were comfortable” where they were at. This statement by ASM2 means that, EITHER HE, OR OTHERS THAT HE HEARD, had already had more than one conversation with GM regarding their location during this critical time. NONE OF THIS shows-up in any reports or notes. Just one more example proving that ALOT of people know ALOT of things that haven’t been revealed yet, and if it weren’t for the background conversation analyzation recently revealing this stuff, we wouldn’t even know this much today.
There was at least ONE reference to that sort of ‘checking on
them’ on the part of ASM2 in the SAIR report. It’s the part
on page 27 when the SAIR says ASM2 asks DIVS A “Are you
okay?” and DIVS A ( Marsh ) supposedly just says “Yes…
we’re just moving”.
The SAIR put a time of 1600 ( or shortly after ) on that, which
would match what ASM2 seems to be saying at 1613. He
seemed to have had at least ONE response from Marsh
that they were “Ok” ( Sic: comfortable ) ‘down there’.
The same conversation is, in fact, reported in the SAIT
investigation notes from the interview with ASM2… but
in the interview… ASM2 seems to put a time stamp of
1630 on this conversation. How the SAIR was able to
‘dial it back’ a full half-hour is still a mystery.
** ADOSH
The actual ADOSH report doesn’t seem to mention any of
this possible ‘checking on GM’ conversation… but oddly
enough… the Wildland Firefighting Associates Report ( WFAR )
that was contracted by ADOSH DOES mention this.. but
with a wildly different account than either the SAIR or the
YIN notes.
** WFAR
The WFAR has a wildly different accounting of this moment
and it VERY closely resembles the conversation that seems
to have been captured in the AIR VIDEO.
The WFAR investigators say that ASM2 was, in fact, ASKED
to check on GM ( which is exactly what we hear happening
at the start of the AIR STUDY video ). It also says that ASM2
communicated directly with Marsh… but only once.
WFAR – Page 15
At 1600, the fire reached Yarnell, Arizona and evacuations were
underway. About this time, the ASM2 overhears radio
communication referring to a safety zone. ASM2 contacted Field
OSC to clarify the exchange. Planning OSC confirmed that the
GMIHC was in “a good place,” in the burned area. ASM2 was
asked to check on the crew, but it was not an urgent request.
Soon after, ASM2 communicated directly with DIVS A. DIVS A
informed ASM2 that they were moving and indicated that
everything was okay.
** THE FULL SAIR AND YIN QUOTE(S)…
There has always been this ( confusing ) section in the SAIR…
SAIR – Page 27
At approximately 1600, ASM2 overhears a comment on the radio referencing a crew and a safety zone. ASM2 calls OPS1 and clarifies, “I heard a crew in a safety zone, do we need to call a time out?” OPS1 replies, “No, they’re in a good place. They’re safe and it’s Granite Mountain.” They talk about flying over to check on the crew, but for now, they think the crew is safe in the black.
Following this conversation, ASM2 hears DIVS A announce on the radio, “We’re going down our escape route to our safety zone.” ASM2 asks, “Is everything okay?” to which DIVS A replies, “Yes, we’re just moving.”
Now compare that with what is actually in the YIN notes
from the Interview with ASM2. They originally said this
exchange happened as late as 1630…
From YIN notes – Page 15…
Interview with ASM2…
We needed to go back to the right flank (16:30 AZ time).
Made 3 practice runs. Painted 2. We came around.
Got a call from Division A stating they were going down their escape route to the safety zone. Didn’t know Division A was the superintendent of the Granite Mountain hot shots. Asked him “is everything OK?” He replied “everything is ok, just heading to the safety zone”. We came around, made a practice run through the bowl, west to east. I was talking to Tom about the rising terrain on exit. Division A clad and said “that is what we are looking for, that is exactly right”. Within 5 minutes of that, they went in shelter.
WTKTT,
Thanks. It just seems to me that the way ASM2 is using the word ‘comfortable’, is like he has just heard it more than once in recent conversations. More common terminology would be GM reporting that they ‘were good’, or ‘we’ve got good eyes’, etc. To me at least, it seems like ASM2 is repeating their response as he heard it, indicating missing conversations. BUT, if he was just converting what they actually said to ‘comfortable’, I could see where it could fit in to the jumbled-up mixture of all the reports you list above.
TTWARE… agree. I think I left an important thing
out of that ‘what the documents are saying’
summary up above.
I ( me, myself, personally ) believe that there
WERE ( as you are pointing out ) MULTIPLE
times when ASM2 asked Steed and/or Marsh
“Are you okay” or “Are you sure you are
comfortable down there?”.
What I am hearing on that AIR VIDEO is ASM2
very frustrated ( and worried ) about ( as he says )
REPEATED attempts to make sure they are
OK down there. The responses he was getting
were ( in his words ) “not credible” based on
the fire behavior he was NOW seeing at 4:16
and even before that when he was ‘checking’
on them.
What is still a mystery ( as if we needed more
mysteries at this point ) is that ASM2 chose not
to talk about these ‘repeated’ assertions from
them that they were ‘comfortable’ or that he
told command directly he didn’t think that
was ‘credible’.
There is nothing in the ASM2 SAIT Interview notes
to back up the conversations I am sure I am
hearing on the AIR VIDEO between ASM2 and
multiple people on the ground.
Did French or Burfiend actually talk about this
time when they were ASKED to check on
GM… did so… found them ‘beyond those hills
there on the corner of the fire?
Did they actually report this to the SAIT and it
just didn’t make it into the SAIT interview notes OR
into the SAIR document itself because it would
have blown their ’30 minute blackout’ right
in half?
It’s another mystery.
I hope it gets solved soon.
Frankly I have not been able to get a clue what Burfiend means when he says, ‘beyond those hills there on the corner of the fire?’
Where – exactly – are you guys getting that Burfiend says this? Where is the link and at what time in the video does Burfiend say this, in your view? ‘Cause I am just not hearing this….
I am gearing up for hike and Sonny asked me to log on to get some gps coordinates and I want to share how helpful this page has been- answered a lot of my ?s and pieced my map out much better.
http://www.azsf.az.gov/yarnell-hill-fire-documentation
had you all knew of the page- great.
However if you did not- very resourceful and answered almost all the questions I posted here.
The cut trail—- I can imagine the bush whack they went thru when you now see the huge rocks. Finding and cutting a hole thru that maze and dealing with huge rocks they had to move around Why would any one in there right mind call that an escape route? Its not out of the questions for the cuts to be where they were they were zig Zagging down thru that mess. They would have made twice the time if they had stayed on the 2 track. LACK OF SCOUTING A GOOD ESCAPE ROUTE If Marsh actually went to the ranch he would have known that was not a good route to the ranch and told the crew. Another piece to the puzzle that makes me believe Marsh was never ahead of the crew or at the ranch. Common science says so.
Amen, Bob Powers to this statement alone “If Marsh actually went to the ranch he would have known that was not a good route to the ranch and told the crew.”
Bob,
It comes from prior bad decisions with prior good outcomes, getting awat with things time and again …
Totally agree… What do you think. Marsh with out saws would have played hell getting thru that mass of Rocks and brush to the Ranch. And then been able to get back to the crew ? That kind of brush is a get on your hands and knees and crawl down animal trails That like takes for ever and then large rocks that block the path.
Bob,
I’ll defer to Sonny and Joy on that one. I think that Southwestern brush is not as dense as South Zone brush, WITH EXCEPTIONS. There’s usually game trails, especially from bears that make it passable, but never in a strainght line.
Ya Sonny has been telling me its pertly nasty in some areas with quite a bit of slow progress.
I have a question.
As I was mostly focused on examining the Deployment Site for so long, my “situational awareness” of the larger area and where people where at various times was formed in my “peripheral vision,” so to speak, by reading comments and conversations, but not by attending to the details myself.
The narrative I was reading and incorporating into my mental map included the idea that Eric was located, generally, (even though we also know he was moving around a lot) up the ridge from, and relatively north of, the crew, especially during the middle-afternoon period before the crew headed down the ridge to the drop-off.
The many times people tried to figure out whether or not Eric was with the crew, or behind or in front of them, as they headed down after the “Options Conversation.” included this assumption.
This assumption was also the basis for one of the points made during the disagreement with Holly’s narrative. Eric could not have gotten to the Boulder Creek Ranch by the time was saying, because he was too far up above the crew, to have been able to make it all the way down there by the time she positioned him there in her narrative.
My question is, where did this assumption come from? What was its basis?
And ps, thanx to WTK, Sitta, etc, for helping me re-orient myself.
I remember looking at that upper “road,” thinking how the heck could they have gotten that atv up on that ridge at that place. But I’ve never been on an atv, so I have no idea what they can/can’t do.
And, Sitta, I read your response about the gps positioning with a LOL. My daughter told me all about that, pretty much exactly the way you said it, last night.
Marti– My main conclusion was that Marsh could not be in two places at once.
He was either headed to or at the meeting place to meet wit Frisby.
The same place they meet that morning on top and above the Lookout spot.
Frisby picked up McDonough and canceled the meeting to go move the trucks.
For Marsh to be at or near the ranch at 1613 he would have had to leave the top before Frisby started there.
But he never canceled the meeting with Frisby unless that has never been noted.
Sonny has stated from the top of the fire to the ranch would take almost 2 hours if Marsh went thru the Brush filled canyon.
To much going on here for Marsh to have been at the house/ranch at that time.
Had he went thru that brush he would have had the crew follow the 2 track to the ranch.
Common science says there is no way he was ever at the Ranch.
See my next notes.
Thank you.
The problem with that is, as I noted yesterday, the meeting spot, as determined via the Blue Ridge gps unit, is not located “on top” and overlooking Donut.
The “meeting” spot is near the helitac spot, which is nowhere near (directionally) where Donut was, at the old grader, MUCH further north. The meeting spot is actually south of the “Options conversation” spot, between that and the drop-off into the bowl/canyon.
That’s exactly why I’m asking. I think we have some problems in our “situational awareness.”
And, thank you, I really appreciate your quick reply.
PS I’m determining the “Options Converation” based on Chris MacKenzie’s iphone gps location. Which, as Sitta, indicated, could be off. But I don’t think it is much.
Marti… see a longer post to RTS
just below. It might be all about
‘startup times’ and sequences for
these iPhone GPS chips. If the
iPhone was not powered on all
day… then anytime Christopher
took it out of his pocket and
had to ‘power it on’ to take a
picture… it could be anywhere
from 30 seconds to 2 minutes
before that iPhone actually
had a GPS fix that you could
‘take to the bank’.
I guess I got confused on the meeting spot I thought it was over by the Pumpkin. The Helispot was on top and above the Crew some distance and above the anchor spot. Even with earlier Times on Frisby’s pickup of McDonough It would still be a hump to the ranch thru the canyon. At least an Hour and a half or more especially if he crawled thru the brush. Still to much time to be at the ranch at 1613. We have a definite meeting spot at a time between 1500 and 1530 with Frisby. Even at 1500 that is 11/4 hours thru the brush. Marsh had no time to be where the other theory puts him and where Frisby puts him for the meeting. That’s what I keep coming back to. If he walked down the 2 track he would have told the crew to go that way. So common science says?
Reply to Marti Reed post
on January 26, 2014 at 9:57 am
>> Marti said…
>> The problem with that is, as I noted
>> yesterday, the meeting spot, as
>> determined via the Blue Ridge gps unit,
>> is not located “on top” and overlooking
>> Donut.
Yes. It is. They would have had a perfectly
clear view ‘looking down’ from where it
was parked to the mound where Brendan’s
lookout position was… but he wasn’t even
there yet. Brendan only went down to that
mound AFTER the 11:54 to 12:25
face-to-face and Frisby/Brown TOOK him
down there in the ATV when they left.
>> Marti also wrote…
>> The “meeting” spot is near the helitac
>> spot,
Yes. THAT is true…
>> which is nowhere near (directionally)
>> where Donut was, at the old grader,
>> MUCH further north.
…but this part is not ( true ). Check the
compass on Google maps. The mound
where Brendan was GOING to be
the lookout ( be he wasn’t there yet because
Frisby hadn’t even dropped him there yet )
is more ‘east’ of the anchor point than
‘north’.
>> The meeting spot is actually south of
>> the “Options conversation” spot,
>> between that and the drop-off into the
>> bowl/canyon.
I’m still not sure exactly what you mean
by the ‘Options conversation” spot.
Do you mean the ‘discussing their options’
moment captured in the MacKenzie video?
Do you have the exact GPS coordinates
for this spot?
>> Marti also said…
>> That’s exactly why I’m asking. I think we
>> have some problems in our “situational
>> awareness.”
Yea… something is getting a little
funkadelic here… and I believe it has to
do with trusting those iPhone GPS
values. I’m even still suspecting that
BOTH the GPS and the TIME on that
iPhone cannot be fully trusted.
Yes, “Options Coversation” is shorthand for “Discussing their Options.”The coordinates I’m using are the ones from his iphone. This Powershot doesn’t have GPS connectivity.
I know the iPhone COULD be off, but does anybody have any EVIDENCE that it is?
I’m still looking at a map that, so far, shows the Eric/Frisbee meeting spot (ATV GPS) that either Eric was waiting at, or headed toward, or coming down off of, with the following distance from the Choices Convo spot from Chris’s iPhone:
Map Length: 375.59 feet
Ground Length: 394.36 feet
Heading 134.07 degrees
Meaning from the Convo spot TO the Meeting Spot.
Reply to Marti Reed post on January 26, 2014 at 8:42 am
Marti… I didn’t see a reply yet to your PRIMARY question
in the post above so I’ll give it a shot here.
>> Marti said…
>>
>> I have a question.
>>
>> The narrative I was reading and incorporating into my
>> mental map included the idea that Eric was located,
>> generally, (even though we also know he was moving
>> around a lot) up the ridge from, and relatively north of,
>> the crew, especially during the middle-afternoon period
>> before the crew headed down the ridge to the drop-off.
Yes. That is the CURRENT ( accepted ) thinking for where
Marsh was most of the day.
>> Marti also asked…
>> My question is, where did this assumption come from?
>> What was its basis?
If I recall correctly… a number of things…
1) For morning / early afternoon… that is exactly where Joy
and Sonny say they were seeing him. I believe they said
they never saw him within even 1/4 mile of the crew. He
was only seen NORTH of where they were working.
2) Marsh was DIVS A. His JOB was to help coordinate all
the air retardant drops that were taking place. The photos
show them building that long west-to-east retardant line
some distance north of where GM was working. Marsh
would have been up almost near the top of the Weaver
Mountain itself to help guide and/or report on those drops.
Hence… his eventual “I’m workin’ my way off the top”
transmission that we hear in the Caldwell video circa 3:50 PM.
3) There just still isn’t any hard evidence at all that Marsh
was every anywhere SOUTH of the anchor point until
they all decided to go that way circa 4:05 PM.
OK. Spiraling in.
I don’t know where “the anchor point” is. Do you have a coordinate for it? As a matter of fact, ever since I realized what I thought was the retardant drop on GM’s line was the further north drop on Saturday, I think I need to get much clearer about where the fire line they built (as seen in Chris’s photos) is located.
And, if you think maybe Chris’s iphone geotagging may be off, where do you think the Options Discussion location is. I don’t have anything else to go on.
I’m really trying to keep this, at least in my head, a bit “one small step at a time.”
PS On my map, based on where the old grader is and where the ATV was parked that morning via “it’s” GPS, the grader is essentially 45 degrees NE.
And thank you. I think Bob wrote where he got that idea. And I think you wrote where you got that idea. That’s exactly what I’m asking. Where did we different people get the idea. Especially the first time.
Marti
I guess I did not realize there was a road or access across the top to the other side. Missed that some where. Even then the time to get to the ranch is still a 90min hike if you go the 2 track to it and not the canyon. The crew with saws was in the canyon for 35+ min. and were not even half way to the ranch. I stated down below how long would have taken Marsh to zigzag and crawl thru the brush and rocks to get to the ranch. and then back to the crew? The evidence is just not lining up as creditable. You can push time back to 1430 and it would be still a stretch to get to the ranch thru the canyon. We have a have a general time and place of a meeting that would have taken place at the anchor point at around 1545 had Frisby not picked up McDonough and road his 4 wheeler to the meeting spot. We know he picked up McDonough with new times some where after 1515 and took him back to the truck. McDonough first picture 1539. So some where around 1500 to1515 the meeting was canceled. This just dose not fit Marsh being at or close to the ranch at 1613.
I get it about the ranch trip!! Actually I’m not even really talking about that.
What I’m trying to figure out is where Eric most likely was during the “Options Conversation/s,” and after, before they dropped down into the bowl/canyon.
The “Meeting Spot” is only 370-390 feet to the SSE from the “Options Convo” spot. Which means he could have even been in shouting distance. I’m trying to figure out if this is impossible, improbable, probable, or possible.
On January 25, 2014 at 1:12 am, WantsToKnowTheTruth asked…
>> WTKTT asked
>> What does ‘Field OPS’ really mean… and WHO would that have
>> been in Yarnell on June 30, 2013?
On January 25, 2014 at 7:55 am, Elizabeth replied…
>> “Field” Ops, as opposed to “Planning” Ops. If you
>> can figure out who “Planning” was, then you can
>> figure out by deduction who “Field” was. I cannot
>> remember off the top of my head.
On January 25, 2014 at 8:46 am, Bob Powers replied…
>> Field OPS is the fire line people. Wasn’t Musser the one
>> that Marsh was talking to about the black? Or was that the
>> Frisby conversation? and Musser came back with the hunker
>> and be safe.
I believe we have been assuming that the Caldwell video, which captures the
“Keep me informed, Hunker and be safe, We’ll get Air Support down there ASAP”
audio transmission was Todd Abel saying that to Marsh, and not Musser… but
are we REALLY sure? Don’t know. No one seems to ever be able to confirm
when we are hearing either Abel or Musser.
Anyway…
I found the answer to the question about “Field” versus “Planning” OPS in Yarnell
that day in the ADOSH report.
Field OPS that day was definitely Todd Abel.
Page 12 of the ADOSH report…
Yarnell Hill Fire Management Positions
Todd Abel – Operations Section Chief 1 (OSC-Field)
Paul Musser – Operations Section Chief 2 (OSC-Planning)
So once again… here is what someone named AZfirefighter said over on Wildfire
today after he listened to the ehanced audio clip I posted over there… and said he
was ‘standing next to Field OPS’… which is what sparked my question…
>> AZfirefighter on January 22, 2014 at 10:08 am said:
>>
>> I would have to agree with WTKTT… its sounds like “just checking it
>> out to see where we’re going to jump out at”.
>>
>> I was on the line that day, and while I did not hear this transmission, his
>> statement and the way he says it makes sense to me. I don’t hear “at the
>> house” at all. Further I never heard any transmissions about GMIHC going
>> to protect structures. In fact, I was with OPS when GMIHC stated they
>> were in good black and staying put.
>>
>> WantsToKnowTheTruth on January 22, 2014 at 1:50 pm said:
>>
>> Which OPS?
>>
>> AZfirefighter on January 24, 2014 at 1:04 pm said:
>>
>> Field
So AZfirefighter was ‘with’ (OPS1-Field) Todd Abel when he heard Eric Marsh
say they were in GOOD BLACK and that they were STAYING PUT.
He seems to have a pretty good memory.
I wonder what else AZfirefighter heard that day?
WTKTT,
““Keep me informed, Hunker and be safe, We’ll get Air Support down there ASAP” This was DEFINITELY OPS Able.
RTS… thank you ( ongoing thanks, of course! )
That’s what I have always assumed.
The funny thing is that his ( Todd Abel’s ) voice
capture ( over the radio with modulation ) in the
Caldwell video itself is very clear… but with all the
time I’ve spent with the YARNELL_GAMBLE audio
and the AIR STUDY background conversations…
( and some other discoveries I think I have made in
other videos ) I don’t think I am hearing him
anywhere else. Not definitely or as clearly as in the
Caldwell video, anyway.
So it’s really frustrating trying to figure out who
ALL of these people are talking to Marsh in ALL
of these now-discovered radio transmissions.
There are moments when it sounds like just about
everyone on the fire that day had their own shot at
talking to Marsh DURING this supposed ’30 minute
blackout’ fantasy that the SAIT wanted us to believe.
With all due respect, again, WTKTT, they are not all talking to Marsh – Marsh is not in MOST of those audios. You are getting your interpretations of those audios wrong, yet you assert your interpretations as though they are fact. It makes me a bit uneasy. A LOT uneasy, actually, because I am afraid that folks like TTWRE seem to be relying on your interpretations. I don’t know what, exactly, each transmission says, but I know in some circumstances that they are NOT saying what you suggest. (“Credible”?? “Comfortable”? Those things are not accurate, WTKTT, as I am understanding the audios.)
I’m always open for new information Elizabeth. Alternatively, what do you think is being said?
Bob/RTS, Actually I should have said a little more for the others who are contributing to this thread and who are interested. All hotshots trace their origins back to California. The first chapters of The Book were all written there. In the beginning the Fire Gods said let there be Hotshot Crews in Region 5, and they saw that it was good. Or something like that, in any case R-5 has always produced bad-ass hotshot crews, they have to, R-5 produces bad-ass fires. I have seen a few…scary.
RTS said, “Gary Olson,
Gotcha. BUT haven’t we given enough answers already? There’s really not a whole lot more that we haven’t already covered that caused all that.”
Well…actually I’m hoping some more things are found out. For example what if someone who heard all of the transmissions that we know occurred comes forward to tell us what was said, say someone with the nickname of Donut. Now, that would be a game changer, even at this point, right?
And we have some great investigators on the case. Do you know what they say in law enforcement, “No informants…no cases!” So…I do want to encourage anyone who knows anything to come forward…we all owe it to the Granite Mountain Hotshots…and those who loved them…and still do.
RTS said, You said this “I wonder if structure protection and wildland firefighting should be mixed. …. Something is amiss in this.”
Very valid points. I’ve been saying this for several years now. The BLENDING of the structure attitude and/or mentality into the WFF world is very disturbing and very dangerous and MAY very well have led to the YHF tragedy. It DOES make sense.
Amen!
I do want to clarify one thing. All hotshot crews are filled with creative, artistic, independent souls, free spirits, and free thinkers, including those crews I was on. The trick is for those people to suppress those attributes for the good of the crew until those skills are needed to advance the overall interests of the crew. It’s kind of hard to explain.
I did read the bios of those who were on the Granite Mountain Hotshots. They were an amazing group of people. To suggest that they were not all of those things I just described would be a great insult to them and a disservice to their memory.
Calvin, WTKTT, and TTWARE,
Looking at the photo in original full screen as you suggested made a HUGE difference and solidified it for me.
As far as I’m concerend, those are most DEFINITELY chainsaw-cut stobs to the right of the big boulder in the center of the photo.They have kind of a brownish hue to them. That was definitely a saw line. We called them “P-lines” for pioneer lines, shoulder wide and fairly low stobs for safety purposes.
Good job Gentlemen, good job.
Regarding the “tan colored earth” above, I agree with David, especially since he went down the hard way.
I don’t think it’s any great revelation to anyone that they WOULD
have been doing some ‘bushwhacking’. They shouldn’t have
been there at all… but once they were… what the heck. They
had four chainsaws. Why not let them ‘plow the road’?
The only thing that will shock me on this is if that really is
clear evidence of ‘bushwhacking’ there in that photo ( that
high up in the drainage and that far outside the deployment
site ) and we are only now discovering it from afar with
browsers and mouse clicks.
RTS. Would a pioneer line be cut in advance of moving the crew through the area? I
I guess I’m not quite seeing it. I see what I THINK you are all refering to, which are several brushy-looking stumps, which appear to begin just above a smaller boulder off to the right of the big boulder in the center, then going up-slope. What I am seeing here, are what appear to be bushes with multiple stems with light colored tips (cuts?) about a foot or so from the ground.
IF those are the things you all are refering to (and I’m not sure yet they are), here’s why I don’t think they are cuts. If you look closely at the one appearing just above the smaller boulder directly off to the right of the big boulder in the center, you will see what looks to be prickly pear leaves (pads) within that vegetaton outline. If you then look almost on a straight line towards the big boulder in the center, you will see an actual prickly pear cactus, whose outline, shape, and pads, seem to confirm that the other one is a prickly pear as well. Using those two as a guide, AND IF, that is the cut brush you are refering to, I am going to have to determine that brush as being burned prickly pear. Another thing, if those were cut brush-ends, they would be chared and not light-colored.
If these are NOT the ‘cuts’, and everyone else is looking at something else, I will have to defer to your visual skills, because after much searching, I haven’t been able to see anything else that looks cut.
TTWARE,
You make a good point on the LACK of char on the stumps, stobs. I’ll have to check it out for myself the next time I go there.
TTWARE… I don’t think there’s any doubt ( from your
detailed description ) that you are looking at the same
objects in that photo. Description(s) seem perfect.
I also just think you made the connection between what
they might simply LOOK like ( to someone who has never
even been in the southwest ) versus what they might
ACTUALLY be.
I’ve done my own brush cutting and burnouts on my
own back 40 and while I would say fer sure it is not
impossible to still have ‘white tips’ on the cut parts
AFTER the burnout… I most certainly don’t ever let the
fire get to 40 foot flames lengths with 50 mph winds
in a box canyon, either.
So that might be ‘end of story’ here.
They might LOOK exactly like evidence of saw work…
but they might still be exactly what you say they are.
Mike something just for you
On the Sawtooth Forest For about 7 years there was a Hot Shot Superintendent of the Sawtooth Hot Shots by the Name of Cole Johnson. He decided in his early 30s to go back east and study to become a Doctor He did and Has a practice here in Twin Falls we are still good friends.
So a Hot Sot Superintendent Can be a Doctor. Your questions have always been good ones keep it up. and thanks for your impute.
This comment —mike on January 25, 2014 at 6:42 pm said:— is the last comment posted. We reviewed the long page one final time. It is on our end difficult to spend a lot of time scrolling so if you have any questions to Sonny or myself or comments just “leave a reply” at the end of the page so we do not have to look for replies and scroll. We won’t be looking and scrolling in the future; it just takes too long. Some of my fault with my lengthy comments and questions. Sonny says he is busy thinking whether he should drop a 350 chevy engine-transmission-transfer case in his 1976 Jeep Wagoneer or attempt to continue using the AMC 401-quadratrac. He thinks it might be wise to get away from that out dated chain driven quadratrac which cannot have disconnect hubs in the front. And go to a gear driven set up. He said what do you think? We know ***fullsail*** will be drawn back here to comment that. That was just one of 20 questions I am hearing Sonny ask me to ask. (soft giggles) I will stop there. Enough scroll, scroll, scroll, right. Thank you again to Elizabeth. We appreciate you and all the help you have given. Next time I post it will be to share something on clarity or answer a question posted to us at the bottom or answer some of the recent scroll up posts. Good night.
http://wildfiretoday.com/2014/01/24/a-military-view-of-wildland-firefighting-in-colorado/
Gary –
You all have been very patient with us who do not have “skin in the game” and I appreciate that. I feel very inadequate to offer an opinion on the worst tragedy in your field in most of our lifetimes. When I started here, I wanted to know the truth, but honestly I wanted that truth to be that Granite Mountain and Eric Marsh were not at fault. That just seemed so unfair.
There was no doubt a cascade of events that resulted in this tragedy. But similar cascades happen a lot I am afraid, on a lot of fires. Being here, I think I have learned what the job of the hotshot superintendent entails. It is to stand in the breach, face the chaos, fight fire safely, and bring everyone home. Quite a lot to ask.
I am a physician, a “captain of the ship” job. Make decisions with life and death implications a lot. I also think I would have liked working on a wildland crew. But, never in a million years, would I have wanted the job of a hotshot super. To those who have done it, you have my greatest respect. Those here who did it most likely did it very well, they are still here to comment. And just like a lot of things in life, there probably is more than one way to skin a cat.
The more time passes, the talk of heroism and being noble fades away, and the sadness remains. It just should not have happened. And I pray it never does again. But there are a lot of prayers that God does not answer in the way we would want him to.
Mike,
You said well the “…. the job of the hotshot superintendent … is to stand in the breach, face the chaos, fight fire safely, and bring everyone home.”
That is perfect. Thank you.
Mike, I remember many of your previous comments and our earlier exchanges. And you have always brought value to this thread. I agree with everything you said, especially about one thing. As time passes, all of the talk of heroism and being noble will fade away, the world will move on and almost all will forget. Those who loved the Granite Mountain Hotshots will be left with nothing but pain, sadness, and loneliness, especially their children. Thank you for staying with us on this thread and bringing your insight to this tragedy.
RTS said
“I am one of the ones adamantly opposed to another new fire shelter design, and I wish we would follow the way of the Australians and Canadians and not use them. With all due respect, new fire shelters are not the answer. Using driving vehicles as an analogy to WFF, we have plenty of safety equipment installed in them, yet we do not rely on those safety devices to save our lives. We use our experience, skill, training, and THE RULES for safe driving to succeed on the hazardous roadways. We don’t rely on our safety equipment to save us.
Redesigning fire shelters to withstand more heat will only make WFF depend on them more and/or rely on them more instead of following the WFF Rules. Many WFF are falling into this trap of undue reliance on them. That is very, very dangerous. The WFF Rules, on the other hand, are responsible for saving tens of thousands of lives each and every fire season.”
Robert, I guess I will start with you. You seem like a perfect candidate for the dumb shit of the year award, the statements it you come up with the way the you put them has me just totally flabbergasted. Let us go ahead and use vehicles as an analogy, as you suggest. So apparently you have never looked at any kind of statistics and think no safety regulations that have been put into, automobiles and last 20 years has had any significant impact in the vehicle fatality rates. So seatbelts, padded dashes, getting rid of sharp objects, seatbelts, power steering, antiskid brakes, stability control, tire pressure monitoring systems, headrest for seats, let alone occupant air bag systems. I will give you 2 places to take a look at vehicle crash fatality statistics. Here are the links. http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Main/index.aspx http://www.statisticbrain.com/car-crash-fatality-statistics-2/ if you take a look at both of these statistical sheets. You will see a precipitous drop in car fatality since they been tracking. The course for you. The apparently should never have changed vehicles from the 1950s.
It amazes me that you would use the terminology “another new fire shelter design” and just for a primer here is the link to the history of the fire shelter http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Main/index.aspx . Now I am sure that you are fully aware of this as you seem to know damn near everything. Now is how the Australian and Canadians choose to either use or not use fire shelters is something that I really cannot comment on since I am not expert in that particular area. But in so far as it relates to the mental status of the firefighter to not take chances or extra risks, since he does not have a fire shelter, what it might really be saying is that since we do not have a survivable shelters, why carry it.
25 years ago or so. Not all structural firefighters had SCBA’s as they do today, the old-timers of yesteryear did not think that they needed it, now a suppression firefighter would not get out of his truck without the SCBA. And for the past 6 months I have been listening or reading old retired WFF’s telling me how it has always been the fault of the crew, Jesse, or Eric. And in reality it is management that is, who let the team down. And to go ahead and continue to pick on the rest the wildland firefighters. It seems to almost all the video and photos that of been taken from this fire and others, does not seem like it Yarnell Hill there was hardly any work being done that directly impacted the fire. So in terms of the crew make a mistake in putting themselves at risk that seems sort of like a pretty weak argument to me.
It is also pretty clear that since the full release of information from Arizona Dept. of forestry. But over the last 30 days or so will people of been picking apart the 2 reports have come to some other conclusions than just the crew was at fault. But for my part in a little less than a week of time, I not only figured out that there was new materials capable and available to handle the higher temperatures. Procured it, small-scale tested it, then contacted a scientist at 3M respirators, and found out they have already developed respirators that would take care of the necessary air purification requirements related to this type of occurrence. Now, whether or not the Forest Service Or Other Governmental Agencies would procure it, and the WFF would actually carry it is a whole other matter.
Sincerely
David Turbyfill
Sonny said “yeah I agree with your assessment. One thing that bothers me is seeing how these men were trained. If you go to the video of their training you will see the military mentality as well it appears that independent thinking is discouraged.
It also appears that men that do think independently would have a hard time getting a job and I don’t know if this is the general rules or just for that particular group of firefighters- count me out.”
FYI Sonny, I don’t believe you would have made a good hotshot in spite of RTS said, you are too much of an independent spirit and a free thinker. There is no room for that on a hotshot crew.
I really feel like Bob Powers and RTS worked on hotshot crews from another planet than I did. I do not think my experience as a hotshot was unique, I think it was the norm. I was around and worked adjacent to, along side, whatever term you want to use and those crews were more or less run like the Coconino Hotshot crews were run and like the Granite Mountain Hotshots were obviously run, I don’t find Eric Marsh’s techniques strange or contrary to how I think it should be done. It is all about spirit de corps, group identity, tribal affilitation, us against the world, we look out for each other because we are brothers kind of thing.
No offense guys (Bob and RTS) but it sounds like your touchy feely, everybody counts, everybody has an opinion and they all matter, tell me how you feel, tell me what you think, is really alien to me. You guys sound like you worked on R-5 crews! (California hotshot crews, no offense, that was a joke)
How about it? There has to other former or current hotshots following this thread out there? Weigh in. Are Eric Marsh and I right, or is Bob and RTS right? Inquiring minds want to know.
We were pretty close to you like I said before. We did not involve touchy feely. The discussion was between the Supt. Asst. and then the 2 crew bosses. Every thing else is as you said.
yours fit your stile. Mine fit my stile. slightly different but got the same result.
Sorry Bob, the “touchy feely” thing was part of my California joke.
Gary Olson,
Watch out now, of all the things you said, I take offense to the “touchy-feely” comment.
I was pushing the envelope on that one. I know for a fact R-5 has very gnarly crews. I do apologize.
Sonny,
Gary Olson said “FYI Sonny, I don’t believe you would have made a good hotshot in spite of RTS said, you are too much of an independent spirit and a free thinker. There is no room for that on a hotshot crew.”
That’s why I said it. I valued independent thinkers on our Crew. Back to my Team Member versus Team Player discussion and post above. Look also back to the Special Forces and Navy Seals models that a lot ofHS Crews follow. Independent thinkers and ‘free spirits’ can still coalesce and form into a very cohesive Team with ease. It’s a leadership thing as well, but fairly easily done with a little fine tuning now and again, but I rarely had any personnel issues or conflicts doing this. And several men that I trained have their own HS Crews now and running them the same way, just fine.
I will admit that I stayed clear of following the Delta Force type of independent thinking. They were WAY to maverick for a good, cohesive HS Crew.
Again I say that you would have made a good Hot Shot. Gary Olson and I just ran our Crews differently, alot differently it sounds.
thanks Robert the Second: That is fair enough. Mining was my favorite, but logging came next. The worse thing in my day was cowboy, pay at five bucks a day. I do think the boys on the fire line are grossly underpaid. What gives there considering the danger involved? Like miners, I would think that wildfire fighters would be hard to find, especially after I read that Yarnell Memorial sign telling me what a Hot Shot had to do to be one. You fellows are damn sure tough enough to ride the river with.
I am certain neither Gary nor you would have refused to drop off in that trap. All the firefighters we hiked with seemed to confirm that and to a man and one lady fire person wondered what happened to cause that malady. I could see the younger inexperienced men to go along but there were some older fellows there too. Maybe the deception of vision had something to do with it, and perhaps there were several contributing factors beside that. I know the men that are active and on the front lines want to know all about this incident as well as those who lost their loved ones.
It seems to me that some people are running scared and holding back information that would clear this up. Maybe the fifth is a good thing for them, but for clarity and future considerations pertaining to the firefighting trade it does not help much.
It was good to see Mr. Turbyfill contribute here. I could feel his pain and loss. He is looking into a better way to protect these men in those fire shelters. Commendable for sure he would do that. Also one Zach Ashoor hiked with me and is working on a respirator that would not weigh so much and would save lives of those working on the lines. God bless those fellows for their good efforts along those lines.
I might say we did have respirators in the uranium mines. They would not have done much good generally since few people know but once you breath in concentrated radon gas that was sometimes found in a low area, you were dead anyway. Your lungs can not expel it since it is too heavy to get out. There are ways to improve things for sure, and human error will always be there but can be minimized. Thanks again to all you firefighters. All my heroes ain’t just cowboys.
Sonny, since we are sharing, I want to tell you my father was killed in one of the Kerr McGee underground uranium mines out by Ambrosia Lake near Grants, New Mexico. New miners were cheaper to get than enacting and enforcing stricter safety standards.
Sorry to hear about your loss. I worked section 30 for Kerr McGee back in 1965. It was well known that deaths in the mine were quite often in those days but you didn’t read much about it in the news. He probably worked the 900ft level since most of us did. Yes, that uranium ore was in sandstone so it could not be sounded and you never knew when a slab would drop. I helped carry out a few miners myself. Yes, it too is a dangerous occupation not to mention the health hazards. Most of the old miners my age are dead now. Radiation has a bad habit of hanging on to carbon and most of the miners smoked so wound up with lung cancer. If you are a past uranium miner and still alive you can collect a couple hundred thousand if you are dying of lung cancer or other. It’s the consolation prize for having worked for the uranium industry.
thank you Sonny
Touché RTS. As Bob says, I don’t think we are very far apart.
RTS said, “Gary Olson,
“The Granite Mountain Hotshots made the biggest blunder in the history of wildland firefighting, BUT…!
I hope I hear you are with me on that because I need your help.”
I’m with you all the way on this being the biggest blunder in WFF history, but why say the above and then use the word “but” as if to lessen or weaken your assertion?”
We might just have to agree to disagree on this point, and it is the Mother Of All Points as far as I’m concerned. I am saying it was the GMHS fault BUT…it was also other people’s fault as well.
Are you saying it was the fault of the GMHS…and theirs alone?
Gary Olson,
When it comes right down to it, that’s pretty much what I’m saying “…. it was the fault of the GMHS…and theirs alone.”
And I’m not alone in that either. There are A LOT of current and former Hot Shots that feel the same way.
I would still like to find some reasonable “yes…buts”.
Gary==
I know we can agree to disagree on our Slight difference of opinions If we were sitting around with a beer and talking it would be easier than communicating thru this dam machine. Words get twisted. If your eye to eye you understand each other much better. And you can still disagree with a smile and understand what’s being said. Hope you got my meaning probably screwed that all up.
I agree with everything you said, a lot is lost in this way of communicating, something like 90 percent of all communication is done through non verbal’s. Facial expression, body language etc.
Which is why I will try to ask you this question straight up as best I can, Do you think this was on the Granite Mountain Hotshots alone, primarily Eric Marsh and Jesse Steed, or do you think others are also to blame?
There is blame to go around Gary. From overhead to how they were trained, PFD, I think we both agree They were the ones who made the final decision that put them where they were. Why and how that happened is our quest.
Also if you did not pick it up earlier.
RTS is his own person.
But as with your crew.
RTS and me stick to gather not all the time but support each other as we are from the same crew Oak Grove he worked for me, long past 1973.
So what else would you expect us to do.
What would you do if you had a crewman on this thread?
Maybe that will help you understand our togetherness at times. Old Crew Mates Die Hard as you should know.
We were lucky and reconnected on this thread after all those years.
I know you guys worked together and you trained him. I expect you to stick together as you should, but you should expect that I would call you on that. No offense taken, just as I do not want to offend either of you. Frankly…I find our differences of opinions very interesting…and strange.
No offence taken Thank you. enjoy our discussions.
I have a good question. Who wrote and put the information that is on the sign of the memorial?
Before reading all of the comments my question cause, I do want to clarify, I was a self proclaimed “Company Man” when I worked for the USFS, I did not become a self proclaimed “Renegade” or free thinker until I went to work for the BLM.
If any of you come to Yarnell and read the memorial sign- you will see it says this if you want to be a hotshot: “you must take orders and carry them out at all times”
This makes me think that anytime you have a boss over you and he says JUMP than you JUMP because you have been trained that you must take orders regardless of whether you think they are right or not.
If I am the low man on the totem pole (rookies on that roster), the man above me can give me 20 pushups than the man above him can give him 20 pushups.
This is a military mentality. There is nothing tougher than basic training in the military to get you in line with taking orders. Very few of us that have had basic training argued with our drill instructor or superior in rank. To do so could cost you more than just 20 pushups; could cost you bad marks and in the end cost them their higher rank.
Sonny,
You would’ve made a good Hot Shot.
You posted this from the memorial sign as it relates to Hot Shots, not the military: “you must take orders and carry them out at all times.” I agree with this only IN PART. In the WFF world, you ‘carry out orders’ UNLESS they are UNSAFE, ILLEGAL, IMMORAL, or UNETHICAL. An order to go to Yarnell (which means you must leave your SZ) at the time and during that intensely dangerous fire behavior was clearly UNSAFE. Hence, the order should have been refused with AN OPTION, like when the fire’s made it’s run we’ll head down.
I’m still not following how the IMT told EVERYONE else to go to Yarnell and hang out, i.e. a Tactical Pause, and yet tell the GMHS to go toYarnell.
Well, we do know that Marsh at first at least did refuse to go down and he said they were safe in the black. So the question is THE OPTIONS you mentioned. What were they? Did he have an option? Or was their pressure to go down as they stated on record for him to go fast.
Who they are/is we do not know?
Maybe voice identification can be made and then we can go from there.
Reply to calvin post on January 25, 2014 at 9:07 am
>> calvin said…
>>
>> Okon folder of DZ photos…image xxxx0476…….. It appears to me
>> there are cut shrub stumps in the middle of the photo, coming down
>> the slope.
>>
>> Can someone look and see if they see that also?
>>
>> On January 25, 2014 at 12:31 pm, calvin also said…
>>
>> Elizabeth, In the picture I am describing, there are numerous stumps
>> that appear to me, to be cut and still uncharred.
>>
>> I could definitely be wrong. WTKTT or Marti, help!!
I see them as well, calvin… and I agree with you.
Based on just what appears in the photo… it looks like evidence of
saw work there in that drainage as they were descending.
They were cutting ‘low’… and taking out whole bushes at about
8 to 10 inches above the ground, leaving just the ‘cut clumps’.
Here is the photo calvin is referring to…
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/lp8q2s34gd9xshe/jfZ2E7bCPs#lh:null-DSCN0476.JPG
You will have to ‘right click’ and ‘View original’ at full size to see what is
being referred to.
Are you looking directly to the right of the big boulder in the center of the photo? I think I see what you are talking about, but to me, it looks like burned prickly pear cactus (even though at first glance, I could picture what you are talking about).
There is something else in that photo worth noting. Just above the big boulder in the middle, is an area of tan colored earth, that, according to more than one person who has been on site, looks like it might have churned up by a whole lot of boots coming down the hill, to the point where it might have been scraped clear of all burnable vegetation. Granted, this appears to be the same route that Brown of BR used when he decended into the bowl to look for GM. and it could have happened because of that, but at this time, one certainly can’t rule out the possibility that it was made by 19 pairs of boots.
Of course, another possiblity is that the investigators, or someone else, disturbed the soil there, but one would hope that the investigators would have been treading very lightly out there, and not coming down the hill in such a fashion as to create that kind of disturbance.
Good afternoon to all, 1st I want to reply to this photo that you guys are referring to https://www.dropbox.com/sh/lp8q2s34gd9xshe/jfZ2E7bCPs#lh:null-DSCN0476.JPG
For the record, I realize that the official report indicates that this is the path that crew descended from the low saddle point on the Ridge into the box canyon. So on my several visits to the deployment site I hiked up to the Ridge from the deployment site with to be to the extreme left of that photo, and descended from the low saddle point down through the suggested route that the crew descended per the SAIT report. I can say with almost a 100% certainty that the crew did not come down the Ridge line at that point. As you said, if you zoom in using the original file size of that photo slightly to the right in that draw remains extremely heavy burnt vegetation that would out sawing through it would be impassable. Also directly above the 2 stacked boulders that you speak of is sort of a red bald area of soil that I slid down that some 30 feet uncontrollably.
It is certainly possible that what you see is some cut materials to the right of those boulders, but I would really doubt it, but walking in that area. The days that I have did seem to point that there had been some hotspot work done in that area. Also something for you all to keep in mind is that I actually find myself off the saddle to the deployment site in the current condition as you see it in that photo and it took me 18 minutes to get from the saddle to the deployment site.
David-
thank you for your comment. We have photos and walked that area upon coming back from the evacuation shelter. Everyone keep this is mind. We did not know 19 men died right there. What we did know was we disagreed the direction to go (Me; I wanted to go up the way the men came down and Joy wanted to scale the boulders around the base) that 6-30-13 a.m. at the same gps coordinates the pink ribbon was at is where we disagreed. We hiked all over and as we reached the saddle Joy noticed people below. She headed that way and saw a flag pole. As we reached that area some folks in the firefighter community said they were from Los Angeles and asked what we were doing in the area. Joy interrupted and stated “this is the area Sonny and I disagreed the day of the fire”- she pulled out her gps unit and noted the area they died is the area we disagreed. The man stated that area is officially called -state land restricted; officals only- and Joy asked where is the signs or map. That is how Paxon got involved and emailed us the map. We were not looking for cuttings of course that day. However, that day over in that area Joy took a terrible blow to the ribs injuring 12 of her ribs on this very topic; stumps. Clean cut or not? Well, that is where Joy’s photos again prove they were not cuttings but burned off stobs some had the appearance the way it burnt of a cutting but not from any saw. So again, show us the FOIA where it has photos of these cuttings that one stated was part of the package and have Marti/WWTKTT to get the gps location as well as the time. It could be a photo from another area. Likely from the fire edge or helispot area where there are many cuttings.
Thank you for publicly sharing the time. Coming down it, depends how you dodge the boulders or the steep incline and slippery rocky areas. Bruce Hanna OSHA took longer because he too took a fall, David. A lot depends on what exact route you descend as well. We went the OSHA way that they reported was the way the men reportedly came down.
David-
so you saved a couple minutes you are saying-
18 minutes.
I took 20 minutes but than you skated down 30 feet and you are a lot younger than me.
Mr. Turbyfill, I am sure I speak for everyone here that we feel your loss. The reason we have not given up on this “investigation” is those that perished that day, including your son, deserve answets, as well that no other families have to ever, ever, ever go through this.again.
We are not doing this because we are bored, we “FEEL” A connevyion with those
Stupid cell phone.
“connection ” tothose lost, we are looking for answers for ALL. RIP Travis.. And his Team…
Iyts not right and we want to know “why”…..
I’m glad to see you back. And I agree with what you are saying. And yeah, stupid cellphones and our often stupid fingers type things we don’t intend. But that really doesn’t matter in the long run!
WTKTT and TTWARE,
Looking at the photo as you suggested made a HUGE difference and solidified it for me.
As far as I’m concerend, those are most DEFINITELY chainsaw-cut sobs to the right of the big boulder in the center of the photo.That was definitely a saw line. We called them “P-lines” for pioneer lines, shoulder wide and fairly low stobes for safety purposes.
Good job Gentlemen, good job.
Regarding the “tan colored earth” above, I agree with David, especially since he went down the hard way.
Thanks WTKTT, many many thanks
your comment is well taken. You indeed have a point there. However, one does wonder why Musser would even consider them using that as the safety zone due to the high fuels or giving any risk at all to men that are not equipped to protect structures considering the violence of the fire that everyone could see it. I would like to know why Marsh at first rejected the idea of going to the ranch house already safe in the black and what would influence him to change his mind and go there after all? Probably what I see and I am not a firefighter; mixing wildland firefighting mentality with structure firefighting mentality is a mistake. Maybe something the firefighter profession can consider changing especially if its going to change lives. I will leave that judgment to the firefighters who know what they are doing.
NV and Rocksteady:
Are you two still around, and, if so, could both of you e-mail me at elizabethreyarnell which is a gmail account, such that it should end with gmail.com? Thanks.
Still here. Just lurking. Emaiil sent.
Wanting something to be so does not make it so.
Let’s say for argument’s sake Darrell Willis got on the horn and flat-out ordered Eric Marsh to go to Yarnell ASAP. Darrell Willis where he was could not see the fire like Eric Marsh could. It was not Darrell Willis’ job to order lookouts and keep an eye on the fire at all times. Eric Marsh’s first responsibility, his most important responsibility, was the LIVES of his 19 crewmembers. That is what being a hotshot superintendent is about. If the order was unsafe (which it would have been) it was his JOB to 1) recognize that fact and then 2) find a different way. All kinds of screw-ups occur on fires all the time, it is the JOB of the super to make sure they do not result in the deaths of his crew.
This is not to say we should not try to understand the sequence of events that took place and learn from it. But you can look until hell freezes over, and you will be left with the fact that Eric Marsh messed up and 19 men died. I think most WFF from comments I have read think this is the case. A few (mostly with close ties to the crew) have said it was a freak accident. But most say, as much as it pains them, that the responsibility lies with the GM overhead. Do you think that when Marsh saw the flaming front, he thought “Damn, Willis got us in a mess” or do you think he thought “OMG, I effed up”.
One final thought. Although the responsibility might lie with Marsh and Steed, somehow I would hazard a guess that people like Paul Musser are feeling the weight of guilt as well. And no amount of blaming Marsh will ever make that go away either. Nothing uplifting from this story, just sadness.
I’m not going to disagree with you at all, Mike…
except for one thing…
If ( for argument’s sake ) Darrell Willis ( or anyone else )
‘flat out’ ORDERED these employees of the City of Prescott
Fire Department to “get to Yarnell ASAP… I don’t care how”…
or even gave any kind of ‘suggestion’ or ‘directive’ that could
be ( given the culture and/or the work environment and/or the
employer/employee dynamics involved ) construed to be
‘an order’ or any kind of ‘your job depends on this’ scenario…
…then this ain’t over yet.
Not by a country mile.
I agree Mike, like I said, I am just looking for caveats, casual factors, contributing factors, other reasons, as in, the Granite Mountain Hotshots effed up but they did it because Darrell Willis ordered (strongly suggested) they get to Yarnell as quickly as possible (hence the added pressure to use the death chute) to help with evacuations and begin structure protection since that will make the crew look really good in the newspapers and after action reports since their jobs (and his) were on the city council chopping block.
In addition to all of the other casual, contributing, caveats, reason why that I named earlier…is that wrong of me.
It does look strongly suspicious Gary Olson that Marsh at first did not want to go down into the death trap then suddenly (we are told) all communication were lost for 30 minutes yet in recent times someone on that fire stated “there was no gap”
I too believe you have hit the nail on the head and at the head. I do recollect Willis statement which he repeated that these are structure protector men and that’s what they do.
One reason, why I wonder if structure protection and wildland firefighting should be mixed. As far as Willis goes he has many awards and has even been congratulated by governor Janet Napolitano for his diligent fire work. At this point we can only guess and there is no real evidence yet. Something is amiss in this.
to the one that said-
Thanks for the compliment on the Hot Shot comment.
However, fortunately not on the GMHS team.
Thank you Sonny, you have just very accurately stated my position from the very first day I talked to John Dougherty.
Sonny went to his cowboy campfire for a bit to play his guitar and make him some cowboy flapjacks and molasses. I want to state Sonny is his own person and we do have different views as I would never state anyone’s name or throw anyone under the bus and there is no evidence to Sonny’s thoughts in which he has had this view since the Summer media releases on the Yarnell Hill Fire. I tend to feel the mystery man has more to shed on this; that is where I stand. I am a strong person (ok, I feel weak nowadays physically) that if I felt Willis had a part in it I would share such but I won’t even lean to others’ thoughts on it until you can shed light more than some silly media releases.
I am trying to reply to you Sonny but it says I replied already and it does not show on here under you…????
Sonny went to his cowboy campfire for a bit to play his guitar and make him some cowboy flapjacks and molasses. I want to state Sonny is his own person and we do have different views as I would never state anyone’s name or throw anyone under the bus and there is no evidence to Sonny’s thoughts in which he has had this view since the Summer media releases on the Yarnell Hill Fire. I tend to feel the mystery man has more to shed on this; that is where I stand. I am a strong person (ok, I feel weak nowadays physically) that if I felt Willis had a part in it I would share such but I won’t even lean to others’ thoughts on it until you can shed light more than some silly media releases.
Sonny,
I’m the one that said you’d make a good Hot Shot. If you or Gary Olson would have been on the GMHS that day, they would all be alive.
You said this “I wonder if structure protection and wildland firefighting should be mixed. …. Something is amiss in this.”
Very valid points. I’ve been saying this for several years now. The BLENDING of the structure attitude and/or mentality into the WFF world is very disturbing and very dangerous and MAY very well have led to the YHF tragedy. It DOES make sense.
Sonny,
I have heard your views from the start yet I am not you in sharing that idea on Willis and since day one I have not appreciated the judgment. You state Shaun M of azcentral did a character assassination statement on you. Wouldn’t your view fall under the same without any proper facts or documents to prove your views? That has been my stance since day one for everyone. Yesterday resulted in confusion. Let me start with a commenter on here that I was reading a book when Sonny was glued to the site on/off yesterday as well as working on his jeep. You had been corresponding in two areas with him. I was reading a book when he came up to me and asked what was new and I handed him the laptop and he declined due to grease on his hands so I read him the JD reply and he said reply what he says but in his thinking I was replying in an email not publicly what he was saying on the “plane” comment only. I did not see how he could be confused because I was not on email until he asked me to check that too. So he wanted a comment retracted and it was not removed yet simple error and would not be repeated.
We have not yet located Mark Danielson but we did turn in some evidence this month. On these hikes we are also looking for other kinds of evidence like fulgurites to prove where exactly that lightning strikes happened originally. We also look for all kinds of clues to get clarity that we were not aware to look for so early on when we got back from the shelter. Heading out to hike-
I doubt we will see much more relevant information to solving the mystery of breaking the ten commandments and falling into a death trap since people are clamming up for the coming court battles. However, it is a great and wonderful education to here from all these firefighters, attorneys and concerned people. I am forever grateful for their service be they dead or alive. Like the unknown soldier there works and intentions are not forgotten.
Reply to Sonny Gilligan on January 25, 2014 at 12:41 pm
>> Sonny said…
>> I doubt we will see much more relevant information to solving
>> the mystery of breaking the ten commandments and falling
>> into a death trap.
I’m not so sure myself about that, Sonny.
As it turns out… there appear to be LOTS of background radio
communications accidentally captured in these videos that
no one seems to have discovered yet… OR… if they did…
they chose to ignore them.
That’s what I am hearing here, anyway ( I have good ears ).
More about that soon.
We already know for sure that this ’30 minute blackout’ thing is
simply NOT true. It has NEVER been true.
There MAY be more ‘evidence’ of the requests and the
pressure being put on Marsh and Steed that afternoon
than have even already been discovered.
We already also KNOW the ‘suggestions/pressure’ was there…
but it might have been even worse than anyone has suspected.
Stay tuned.
However… it does NOT appear we are going to have any
more video or audio evidence of the ‘private’ conversations
that we KNOW were taking place over the Granite Mountain
intra-crew frequency that afternoon.
I was personally hoping for more video/audio along the
lines of what Christopher MacKenzie left us from either
other smartphones that were on the ridge or from Brendan
McDonough accidentally shooting a video while he was
listening to everything… but it looks like that is not to be.
There are only two people ( as far as we know ) left alive who
were there that day and who even knew what that GM intra-crew
frequency number was. BOTH of them have admitted they were
at least LISTENING IN on that frequency during the ‘discussing
their options’ conversation(s)… if not ( possibly ) actively
participating in those discussion(s).
That would be Brendan McDonough and Darrell Willis.
>> Sonny also wrote
>> since people are clamming up for the coming court battles.
They can ‘clam up’ all they want to at this time.
When they are called to the stand… they will have to tell the truth.
That’s how that works.
yeah I agree with your assessment. One thing that bothers me is seeing how these men were trained. If you go to the video of their training you will see the military mentality as well it appears that independent thinking is discouraged.
It also appears that men that do think independently would have a hard time getting a job and I don’t know if this is the general rules or just for that particular group of firefighters- count me out.
I don’t agree Sonny. Otherwise, I would not be dissecting this fire from fulgurites to where it all started to the homeowners sharing to me their accounts which helps timestamp the progression of the fire and as well most folks only get a few accounts from a homeowner but I have that whole communities accounts that I can see how that fire went and at what time where others have to dissect the media of what is given them and I have a lot more insight on the times of what was burning when which would of been nice if YCSO or the firefighter community stated this publicly but I do not agree Sonny with your idea. I think more is yet to come…
Gary Olson and Elizabeth,
Definitely NOT a Company Man here. I don’t know where your associate, friend comes up with that one. I ran my Crew to be independent thinkers, like I was, as long as they followed proven WFF Rules. I followed the Team Member concept versus the Team Player concept.
The Team Player is a kiss ass, a yes man, a brown noser, go-along-to-get-along, NOPE not me. That’s a Company Man. I am NOT a Team Player, therefore NOT a Company Man.
I followed the Team Member concept where everyone had a say in The Plan (within reason of course). We ran our Crew a might different than you did. We stayed clear of the ‘my way or the highway’ leadership. We studied and followed Risk Management specialist Gordon Graham’s concepts. We studied and followed, in detail as much as possible, the Special Forces models, especially the Navy Seals. It worked rather well. And it paid off with NO fatalities, NO shelter deployments, NO serious injuries, NO serious accidents, by the Grace of God.
Botton line, the leadership was at fault, on the ground at the time, notwithstanding any of the other things you mentioned. And I agree they were contributing facots, so I’m not at all discounting them. But they were not THE causal factor(s).
Your use of words better than Mine Casual should have been Contributing my brain dead moment.
“The GMHS, under the leadership and supervision of Marsh and/or Steed, ALLOWED it to happen by NOT abiding by well-established lessons learned and the Basic WFF Rules. Once again, I can’t make it any clearer than that. It was nobody elses fault, NOT OPS, NOT AA, NOT AZ Forestry, NOT the weather, NOT the fire behavior, and NOT fire shelter failure. It was clear and simple – HUMAN FACTORS.”
I asked because of what you said (not because of what my friend said), this is a Company Response, right from the Management Hand Book. Put all blame on the Firefighter. What am I misreading here? Would you like to restate your comment? I have pulled comments back many times.
I don’t give a shit about a management hand book I am responsible for the people who work for me first in last out and if one doesn’t make it I wont either. My creed no one else’s. The supervisor makes the decision If its a bad one you own it live or die. No body ever made me do any thing I did not want to do……..
Gary Olson,
Nope. I’m standing my ground on what I posted AND that’s what I and others outside of this forum believe as well.
I wouldn’t know what others think, I ride for the brand, I don’t go outside of this forum, cause I’m a company man and loyal to John Dougherty and Investigative Media!
The “my way or the highway” was the Coconino National Forest way, I can’t be blamed for that, it was all I knew and how I was raised, I was just a product of my environment.
Maybe we are just having a disagreement over the definition of words, I am going to have to go to a dictionary. To me, there isn’t a great deal of difference between “casual” and “contributing.”
I really am here because I want to lessen the pain (whether those who loved the Granite Mountain Hotshots believe that or not) and the verdict of history on the Granite Mountain Hotshots. And if we go with what you said, there is no hope of that. I am looking for caveats, as is, “The Granite Mountain Hotshots made the biggest blunder in the history of wildland firefighting, BUT…!
I hope I hear you are with me on that because I need your help.
Gary Olson,
“The Granite Mountain Hotshots made the biggest blunder in the history of wildland firefighting, BUT…!
I hope I hear you are with me on that because I need your help.”
I’m with you all the way on this being the biggest blunder in WFF history, but why say the above and then use the word “but” as if to lessen or weaken your assertion?
I said BUT…because I meant to weaken the statement by adding a caveat, a clarifier, a reason, a causal factor, a contributing factor…I don’t think I am expressing myself very well today.
IF we just stop with “The Granite Mountain Hotshots made the biggest blunder in the history of wildland firefighting!” Well…then we can stop because that fact proved itself on the first day, I am looking for OTHER reasons.
Gary Olson,
Gotcha. BUT haven’t we given enough answers already? There’s really not a whole lot more that we haven’t already covered that caused all that.
And I have always said the are my brothers even with the mistakes they made. And I understand what you are saying. My father made some teriable mistakes on the Rattle Snake Fire But as a leader he stayed with the crew and tried to lead them out. He had just brought them lunch and stayed to eat. Yet him and the crew boss went back up to check on the backfire before they went back to eat. He wasn’t responsible for the crew but he took control of them. He was the Asst. District Ranger his district A solid background in Fire Fighting. He should have known better when the Fire Pumper left there should have been a lookout posted.
No, whatever mistakes they made, I wish I could have been with them that day in some way, not to die with them, but to help them live. I would not think I would experience “Survivor Guilt” after all of this time. Strange.
“Strange” how else do you say it.
Gary Olson,
EXCELLENT point, “but to help them live.” YES! You want to do what? WTF are you guys talking about? That doesn’t makeany sense, especially now.
Instead of “be right there with them” as Willis said many times.
Of course I do not want to offend you, Bob Powers or you RTS…we have been through to much together for that. But I do have a simple question for you. One of the many people with whom I carry on side conversations with regarding this disaster, some in person, most by email, told me they think both of you are “Company Men”.
For example you are they types who repeat the company line by rote. “Rote learning is a memorization technique based on repetition” (Wikipedia), I on the other hand, have gone to great pains to establish myself as a free thinker and a renegade who went off the reservation without any hesitation throughout my career if I thought things were not right (just ask BLM management). I can still respect you, and listen to you even if you are Company Men, I just will factor that in when evaluating your responses and comments.
So my question to both of you is this, are you…Company Men?
I would withdraw the question, Gary. I wouldn’t inflame the situation by even asking.
I better withdraw my answer if Gary is going to withdraw his question.
We have to have a place of free thinking.
There is nothing wrong in people asking questions. We all have our diverse way of living. It gives everyone a look in. We are an open book. You go to my profile at google gmail (sonnygilly) and we tell it all about us there. That helps people from narrating or wondering who are these 2.
The company man has to stay within the confine of the company’s way of thinking. To move outside that zone, could cost a promotion or even his job. However here in the Yarnell fire everyone of the standards were broken that might indicate how strongly company thinking can influence a decision.
We hope more information will be revealed as we go along.
Sonny, I was teasing Gary. I apologize if that was not clear. Free thinking is great. Perhaps I should stop posting for today, since my communication skills today are poor.
Elizabeth… there is nothing wrong with
your communication skills. You say what
you mean and you mean what you say.
Please continue to do so.
Hi Gary. Thank you, I am not a company man just so you know. However we have to consider the mentality of the company men. When we have these types fighting the fire as BOSSES then we must realize that outside influences can affect the outcome.
Gary– I was born and raised USDA FS. Dose that mean I am a company man? I always questioned things I did not agree with and got my tail caught in the door occasionally. Lost my last promotion because I would not go along with the Staff officer after my Forest FMO left and they were filling his job and I was covering some of the duties. I also am a staunch believer in the 10 Standard Orders and trained fire fighters that way. My Fathers death created some of them and some of the 13. Company Man depends on your definition. Many people I worked with and for would probably say not really. Also I was an active member of NAFE union for several years and wrote articles for there News Letter. I think that’s way off company Man. Ill leave it to your discretion no problem here.
great reply Bob Powers.
Everyone realizes in coverage of this fire that Willis stated he was grooming Steed and Marsh for higher positions.
So as Bob stated- define “company man”
I ask define “grooming” to me. If you are being groomed does that not mean that you have a thumb over you.
Could you be pressured or influenced?
Consider also, that there had been some friction documented before this Yarnell Hill fire.
Also think about, Steed.
The younger men—some rookies, looked up to him and considered to be like a Greek God as it was reported in an article.
Are these factors worth considering in all this firefighting tragedy?
In a City department I agree with you. Back in my day most promotions required you to apply and transfer to a totally different location there for grooming was not a real opportunity. I transferred from a GS6 HS Asst. Supt. Southern Cal. to a ADFMO GS7 Northern Cal. The Asst. before me also transferred to Redding HS as a GS7 Supt. That was in the early 70’s. A City fire department is small and would have some pressure problems for promotion. In that lies the problem Willis.
No, if you lost a promotion for not agreeing with the Boss and you worked with the Union I would say you weren’t a Company Man. It may have been unfair of me to even ask you, but since you are RTS are usually (always) in tandem, I thought I would cover both of you with the same question.
As I said, I really did not want to offend you with the question, I think it was legitimate based on RTS’s assessment of the situation for all of the reasons I stated.
And I did post a clarification to my comment below, I was without any question a Company Man when I worked for the USFS, as I think my previous comments show. So I don’t think Company Man is a dirty word, for example, I said in an earlier comment that when I worked for the USFS, “I rode for the brand” which says the same thing as a Company Man, but I guess it sounds better.
FYI – I was raised around the USDA Forest Service my whole life as well, plus my Grandfather was killed while working for the FS…so I have some claim to being born and raised in it as well (my father was killed when I was very young, 4). The FS was always a big part of our lives.
RTS said, “The GMHS, under the leadership and supervision of Marsh and/or Steed, ALLOWED it to happen by NOT abiding by well-established lessons learned and the Basic WFF Rules. Once again, I can’t make it any clearer than that. It was nobody elses fault, NOT OPS, NOT AA, NOT AZ Forestry, NOT the weather, NOT the fire behavior, and NOT fire shelter failure. It was clear and simple – HUMAN FACTORS.”
Yes, I strongly agree, but, I believe, as I have believed all along that there were “contributing” factors or other casual factors that we are looking for and trying to understand. I read somewhere that disasters like are rarely caused by a single factor, e.g., Marsh and Steed Screwed Up, but are the result of many contributing factors, e.g., someone placed and unreasonable request “order” to make them feel like they had to go to Yarnell to begin structure protection because it would make them look good in the face of the city council’s budget cutting axe, there were residents who needed help to evacuate even though others waited to long to order the evacuation, houses were going to burn and Prescott Fire department employees really care about that fact even though almost none of those property owners had done anything to make their homes fire wise, a dumb ass Oregon State Forestry dumb ass overrode a ground commander and dropped on their back fire, someone told them to get to Yarnell ASAP, which put pressure on them to go down the death chute, they were sent to the fire when they should have had the day off since they were required to start days off the following day and therefore they made mistakes due to fatigue they normally would not have made, the state used poorly trained, motivated and equipped prison crews for INITIAL ATTACK like IDIOTS would have instead of just mop-up like I have seen done in all other states, the State of Arizona bet the fire would put itself out and they could save more money because they have a long and shameful history of placing the almighty dollar above firefighters safety because of being historically underfunded by the Arizona State Legislature, they were given a very poor briefing, no maps, and the fire overhead had their heads up their asses, the fire was grossly undermanned for current and expected fire conditions, the state was a day late and a dollar short when it came to ramping up the fire and calling in the appropriate level of a fire team, the state tried to save money by ordering in a “short team” when a full team was obviously needed, as the day goes by I will undoubtedly think of more contributing/casual factors but those are the ones that I came up with right off the top of my head without putting much thought into it.
If all we want to do is to blame Marsh and Steed and say “The GMHS, under the leadership and supervision of Marsh and/or Steed, ALLOWED it to happen by NOT abiding by well-established lessons learned and the Basic WFF Rules. Once again, I can’t make it any clearer than that. It was nobody elses fault, NOT OPS, NOT AA, NOT AZ Forestry, NOT the weather, NOT the fire behavior, and NOT fire shelter failure. It was clear and simple – HUMAN FACTORS.” well…we are all wasting our time and could have stopped this exercise in futility months ago, or better yet…even before we started it because everyone knew Marsh and Steed were at fault the first second we heard about it…that is so elementary and SIMPLISTIC that it doesn’t even require any firefighting training or experience, everyone knows the BOSS is always ultimately responsible when things go wrong whether your a window washer or the President of the United States…right?
Gary, this is why you CANNOT leave. EVER. AGAIN.
Thank you.
I agree with Gary Olson. I would not have hiked all those people if I felt it was as simple as human factor. Joy is a giver freely of her time not me. I have given freely in hopes only to get clarity due to the loss of my own son and these people affected by that weekend deserve clarity. Nice “once upon time” there…but we were there and we have no agenda but there is missing factors that are not in SAIT report and nowhere in the interviews, logs and records. Elizabeth was trying to help and guess names or help get clarity yet again we were there; Steed was not the mystery man on the 3rd account meeting we had with Marsh because Steed was with the GMHS crew and we met Steed 7 minutes later as we spoke to them and passed the men. It was too early for Frisby and not the area he met with him later. Than it was left maybe OPS. Maybe? So now if they are the maybes—send me a link to their accounts and interviews for that morning otherwise we feel they are hiding information that can help reach clarity.
Sonny, I am not helping anyone *GUESS* anything. I am telling you what the documents – interviews of the men themselves – reveal. Frisby and one of the OPS guys all claim to have had face-to-face meetings with Marsh. Geesh.
Geesh?
Well, I stated “guess” because as I replied Frisby was later and Steed we would have meet 7minutes later so yes it is a guessing thing right now because if OPS was there, I have not seen the records yet of their interviews that account they were there with Marsh.
Wow, I am too old to worry about what word I say may get a “geesh” but the correction is made that Elizabeth sent us an email in regards to why we are interested in certain questions and I replied and she is “guiding” us to the facts.
Thank you Elizabeth.
We have come up with a lot of casual factors that lead to the fatalities. But we have not found the big gun yet and I am still optimistic that we will. The final decision was Marsh and Steed’s what got them there we (I) are working on we have several subtitle references all ready that are beginning to add up to a problem. So no I have not given up.
There are still at least two people who can
probably easily ‘fill in the blanks’ of what
else was said that afternoon on the
GM intra-crew frequency.
Brendan McDonough and Darrell Willis.
Thank you for stating this, Gary!
While I’m a proponent of the individual ultimately being responsible for their decisions, I think we’re fools if we don’t use this opportunity to recognize all the factors that contributed to this loss of life.
If we don’t address the other issues at a time like this, I don’t hold much hope for them *ever* changing. Other factors I see:
-Short budgets
-Underestimating fire behavior
-Sloppy line construction?
-Structural/wildland priorities and attitudes getting confused
-Fatigue, fatigue, fatigue
-Lack of prep and mitigation
-Not aggressive with IA early on
-Allowing resources to fight over tactics (direct vs. indirect)
-Waiting 36 hours to get serious, and then not taking an hour to put together a proper briefing with maps and a com plan
-Promoting those who take risks, and punishing those who take safety seriously enough to be inconvenient for management
-Overlooking safety guidelines as a habit
-Encouraging obedience to the detriment of independent thinking
-Constant undercurrent of having to prove one’s self/crew/station against threat of defunding
Not all of these may be Yarnell Hill specific, but I’ve seen them all before. Like you said, Gary, there’s a lot more to add. And I’m basically restating what you wrote. But it’s so important, it’s worth restating. If we place all responsibility on Marsh and Steed, we give a pass to all the other crap that was — and is still — going on. And I have a hard time believing that such chaos does not hinder decision making, even if most of us can cut through it most of the time.
Calvin,
I checked out image/photo #0476 the best I could but was unable to zoom very much, but I couldn’t locate any cut stobs.
However, Ifound image/photo #0514 informative showing the ash whipping up in the bowl, which one can infer the flaming front reacting to the wind influence in the bowl.
I am always appreciative when you take the time to answer my (numerous) questions. I am continuing to look at this picture. Do you see the large boulder, mid picture stacked on another. look just to the right and (to me) there appears to be several areas where brush has been cut and the cut, stump ends are unburned. They appear like whit dots against the black. They kind of are lined up diagonally left to right from the top to the bottom.
I do not have equipment to zoom further. But I cant find any other stumps that look like this area.
Thanks to all.
Okon folder of DZ photos…image xxxx0476…….. It appears to me there are cut shrub stumps in the middle of the photo, coming down the slope.
Can someone look and see if they see that also?
calvin on January 25, 2014 at 9:07 am said:
Okon folder of DZ photos…image xxxx0476…….. It appears to me there are cut shrub stumps in the middle of the photo, coming down the slope.
Can someone look and see if they see that also?
OSHA REALLY COMBED THAT AREA, IT WOULD OF BEEN IN THEIR REPORTS AND SONNY WAS DIRECTLY LOOKING FOR CUTTINGS WHILE ON HIKE WITH OSHA SINCE WE COULD LEGALLY BE IN AN AREA RESTRICTED AND SONNY DID NOT SEE ANY CUTTINGS ON SLOPE. PLUS I HAVE PHOTOS I THOUGHT WOULD HELP HOLLY ON THE SAWYER IDEA OVER BY THE SADDLE BUT THE VERY AREA THAT I TRIPPED ON STUMPS WAS JUST BURNT DOWN STUMPS NOT CUT ONES BUT SOME APPEAR TO LOOK CUT BUT THEY ARE NOT SO MAYBE THAT IS WHAT YOU SEE BUT I DO NOT SEE IT IN PHOTO BUT I KNOW THAT IS THE GENERAL AREA I HURT MY RIBS ON A STUMP.
Calvin- you brought up a good question-
what if all this time everyone thought they descended by the saddle and went down another way
We will also share you that others hikes we took, some of the folks had thought that and scoped the area out too on their own and they did not see any plus others areas equal steeper grade—
that topic has been pretty much exhausted as some stumps that appear to be cut but looking deeper were not-
Calvin, I have not looked at the photo to which you are pointing me since I received the FOIA materials weeks ago, but I can envision what you are seeing, and you are correct. Members of the SAIT took photos of various stumps (clean-cut) that they found along the “path” that they believe the GM crew took when descending to their deaths. My impression is that they believe those cuttings or stumps corroborate their estimated location of the descent path to the ultimate deployment site.
Grab a plane ticket out Elizabeth and we can show you the area to hike. You can rest assure that you cannot depend on the SAIT as a reference guide or to give it as a source of commenting to Calvin as being correct. They did not know that terrain and we can share the photo of that area in person that we do not post because Joy is in photo badly injuring 12 ribs her medical massager fixed. There was no cuttings. There was areas that appeared to look cut and we have those photos but being it is Joy in dismay pointing to the stump that injured her she did not post it for her face was in pain. We have photos and they do not compliment the SAIT or Holly’s article account of Sawyers. There is cutting that was obvious when the pink ribbon was up in the areas of the tied up deployment area. You can see the cuttings where they cut the fire edge and than you can descend the mountain on your own and you will see there was no cuttings.
also as the person who took the photographs of that area if they found concrete clean cut cuttings, they would of took a photo being that is important location evidence and knowing that flora and bushes grow taking a photo is crucial to show the clean cuts but again you do not see in the SAIT photos of that gps location and or area or any close up shots with area in background and again one is going on their narrative belief of what the SAIT put out. I would use Joy’s dismay photo of the stumps on the saddle area that injured her ribs that has time and gps on the aftermath hike of the fire before I would any narrative put out without proof. Wouldn’t you? Knowing how much has been hidden already or misreported and proven to this date in regards to the SAIT.
What? There ARE photos of the stump. That was my point.
Elizabeth, In the picture I am describing, there are numerous stumps that appear to me, to be cut and still uncharred.
I could definitely be wrong. WTKTT or Marti, help!!
Joy showed me this link
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B36DIycSgbzWSUtjNkl1Z2ROT0k/edit
and I did not see any evidence there. If your FOIA package shows it than show it here for Calvin so WWTKTT and Marti can dissect the photo to see if it has gps location as well as any other information they can pull out that Jeffrey’s exif viewer cannot offer and we will go to the location and photograph it now for you.
I am with Gary Olson when he said Willis should have been home with his head hung low staring at walls versus the PR events he attended waving at the crowd at a football game in the very start of all this. After all we all have had our head hung low over this. Can you imagine because we have been others’ narratives, articles, gathering of information for the book, tv segments and so on and so now when we go places people come to us and give us tidbits that we did not have before so keeping this mainstream will get the right person to come forward.
We would like to hear the rest of the facts from the people who were at the fire versus hiding information as its obvious for we were there and things are not adding up. A lot is being left out. People say that we may never know but this I do believe there are people who do know. Could you imagine having the knowledge of not just one death but nineteen and taking that to your grave? For what? Well, carrying that burden would take you to an early grave.
WTKTT and Bob Powers,
Posting here and above where you asked this question.
Regarding “WHO are ‘DH’, ‘B-3′ and ‘Ops Chief’, I wonder?”
DH is one of the Dispatchers, just check the log, the initials are all through it.
B-3 is Bravo 3 – pretty sure
Not sure on the Ops Chief
OK thanks
Bravo 3 = ASM1 = Rory Collins?
Are you saying it’s possible ( according to the dispatch log )
that just Rory Collins and one of the OPS ( Musser or Abel )
were the ones reporting “Imminent threat to homes… let’s
divert all resources to Yarnell” as EARLY as 1:49 PM that day?
Once again… here’s that curious line entry from dispatch log…
06/30/2013 1349 ( 01:49 PM ) DH Diverted all air tanker
to the Yarnell fire due to imminent threat to homes
per B-3 and the Ops Chief.
Yay!!! It finally uploaded. So here it is (sorry, no awesome soundtrack):
Published on Jan 24, 2014
This is a compendium of the Blue Ridge Hotshots Photos, (time-synchronized by me) from the June 30, 2013 Yarnell HIll Fire, which killed 19 Granite Mountain Hotshots, released to John Dougherty of InvestigaveMedia website, via his FOIA request.
Images with a 39xx file number are from Blue Ridge Hotshot Papich.
Images with a 19xx file number are from Blue Ridge Hotshot Ball.
Images with a yarnell-xxx file number are from Blue Ridge Hotshot McCord.
There are three media images at the end. They have no time-stamps, but I think they are important in this image-based narrative of what the Blue Ridge Hotshots, who deserve medals for all they did, were involved in that tragic day.
RIP Granite Mountain Hotshots
Blue Ridge Hotshots 6:30:1013
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Fkg_DDO2zI&feature=youtu.be
Kudos… Marti… very well done.
I like the fact that it has no sound.
It’s appropriate.
It is still absolutely astounding how such a ( relatively speaking )
SMALL fire in the morning grew into such an absolute disaster
circa 4:30 that very afternoon.
Regardless of the mysteries still surrounding the fatalities that
day… I hope people figure out how that was allowed to happen.
Could anything have prevented it?
Maybe. Maybe not.
Marti,
Thanks for all the good work on the images.
WTKTT,
You said “Regardless of the mysteries still surrounding the fatalities that day… I hope people figure out how that was allowed to happen.”
The GMHS, under the leadership and supervision of Marsh and/or Steed, ALLOWED it to happen by NOT abiding by well-established lessons learned and the Basic WFF Rules. Once again, I can’t make it any clearer than that. It was nobody elses fault, NOT OPS, NOT AA, NOT AZ Forestry, NOT the weather, NOT the fire behavior, and NOT fire shelter failure. It was clear and simple – HUMAN FACTORS.
Dear RTS:
I am stunned by your comment. I honestly am.
I am without words.
Sorry Elizabeth but I agree with RTS.
Also WTKTT was talking about the IA and low resources assigned early in the Fire I got that. If I had done what Marsh and Steed did I would have felt fully responsible with or without any outside influence. Marsh always had the final decision. Many of us old Fire Fighters would have said hell no we are good right here in the black……
Elizabeth,
Not quite. I count 13 words you used.
RTS… You misread my sentence.
What I meant was… regardless of the reasons
why people died in the afternoon ( which you just
supplied your known opinion on )… I hope people
find out why the FIRE itself grew from almost
nothing in the morning to the monster it became
just a few hours later.
Matter of fact… I hope it all gets thoroughly
analyzed going all the way back to the lightning
strike.
Have you seen the Fernandez photos in the
dropbox? At about 10:00 AM on Saturday he
did a ‘fly-around’ of the fire in his Helicopter
and took LOTS of photos.
I can’t even find any fire in any of those photos.
Not even one little bit.
Just a little smoke.
The darn thing looks like it was already OUT
by 10:00 AM Saturday.
So just take a look at those Saturday 10:00 AM
photos alone and ask yourself how we got to
the photos on Sunday afternoon.
Ditto for Joy Collura’s photos.
There’s a story being told in her photos that
hasn’t been fully vetted yet.
That’s what I was referencing above when I
said ‘regardless’. The whole handling of the
entire fire itself needs a good going over…
…but I would imagine the lawyers for the
plaintiffs in Glen Ilah and Yarnell are already
working pretty hard on that aspect of it.
If I had confidence in the legal system being able to provide clarity and transparency, WTKTT, I would not be here.
I have made this point before, but, in light of your comment, it obviously needs to be said again. The job of a plaintiff’s lawyer is not to find out the truth.
C’mon counselor… do you REALLY
think people who have filed suits for
damages aren’t doing all they can
to prove that some certain level of
incompetence and/or negligence
is what actually CAUSED those
damages?
If they aren’t… then the plaintiffs
need to get themselves some
other lawyers.
WTKTT, a lawyer is obligated to do what the fully-informed client wants. You can settle a case without having to prove negligence. You can settle a case without proving anything. Litigation moves very, very slowly. Litigators who are really good are normally really busy, so they tend not to gather every single available and relevant fact until they HAVE to (e.g. closer to trial, depositions, whatever). If you think that the lawyers involved in the cases are spending the same number of hours on a daily basis that we are, you and I are going to have to respectfully disagree. But, hey, what do I know….
WTKTT,
Gotcha. Several reasons the fire got so large (notwithstanding the flippin’ Inmate Crew letting it escape over a darn road) was the incredible FUEL LOADING, highly volatile FUEL TYPE (Turbinella oak, Scrub Oak), the AGE of the decadent stand (almost 50 years), the FACT that MOST Yarnell residents did NOT adequately FireWise their property, the UNCONTROLLABLE weather was a huge factor, and finally ALIGNMENT of extremely volatile fuels, COMMON strong thundersorm outflow winds, and chutes, chimneys, and BOWLS.
Gotcha ( right back atcha )… but
do we ( even now ) REALLY know
what that DOC crew was actually
DOING up there on Saturday?
From the look of the Fernandez photos
and his ‘fly-around’ at 10:00 AM
Saturday morning… it looks like all
a full crew would have had to do
is piss on whatever was left of the
thing and that would have been the
end of it.
Is there actually a chance that this
crew decided to actually light their
own NEW fires ( indirect attack,
attempt to burnoff to the jeep trail,
or whatever ) on Saturday?
I guess what I am saying is… were
there actually TWO Yarnell fires?
The one started by the lightning
that had pretty much burned out
by 10:00 AM Saturday… and then
ANOTHER fire started by the
DOC crew that ended up getting
away from them and ‘escaping’
over the jeep trail there?
Has anyone seen any unit logs or
activity reports from Saturday morning
that explain EXACTLY what that
other crew was actually doing up
there on Saturday… and HOW they
were going about it?
WTKTT,
It’s POSSIBLE that they may have fired off the road since it would have been more-or-less a parallel line with unburned fuel. And it is a function of fireline construction at the Crew Leader level. But at that time of day, usually NOT a good idea. Possible.
It’s also possible MAYBE they had lit it off earlier the night before or early in the morning and it was just a ‘dirty burn’ and never really took until the temp came up and the humidity dropped with a little wind. Very possible.
Or it could’ve just picked up on its own during that same weather scenario and because it was NOT burned out, picked up in the unburned and made a run their line and breached it. Very possible.
I could never understand WHY they did NOT have a 4 x 4 Engine up there to just be done with it. Bottom line, there were some sort of leadership and quality issues. My opinion.
Spent the afternoon
getting up to speed
on Saturday events.
Something strange
happened, fer sure,
but it’s not documented.
There was basically
NO FIRE in the AM.
Everyone felt comfortable letting
a trainee handle things.
Shumate is told it’s
contained on ALL
FOUR sides. He lets
SEATS and Engines
go.
Next thing… fire is
re-ignited with 20 foot
flame lengths and is
running and has
jumped the jeep trail.
WTF?
Biggest problem on
Sat is that everyone
knew they just needed
to spit on it with a
chopper and a bucket
and it would be over
but no one could get
that coordinated.
There is NO direct
evidence that Lewis
crew was ever told
to backburn anything
or whether they ever
tried a burnout down
to the east flank
two-track… but maybe
they actually did
and screwed it up.
More later.
I just watched this, Marti. It’s very well done. Thank you.
You’re welcome!
Need a little help with something from WFF folks…
I posted my own enhanced audio clip of the section of the AIR STUDY
video where Holly/John thought they were hearing “Nah… I’m at the house”
over at Wildfire Today, where those findings were first published.
I said the same thing over there that I have said here… that I believe that
is NOT what is being said at that point in the video.
I believe what is actually being said there is…
“Uh… I’m just checkin’ it out to see where we’re gonna jump out at”.
I also believe that is PROBABLY Eric Marsh making that response to the
query “Are you with Granite Mountain right now?”… but I will also admit
it might NOT be… since it simply doesn’t have the same clearly identifiable
Eric Marsh voice signature that the previous exchange in this same video
does when Marsh responds to the initial “Granite Mountain… what’s your
status right now?” query.
Anyway… whether that second section really is Marsh or not ( I believe it
is but your mileage may vary )…
Someone named AZFirefighter over at Wildfire Today listened to the
clip… responded… and said he agreed with my transcript versus the
Holly/John one… but he also then said something even more interesting.
He said he was ‘on the fireline’ at Yarnell that day and was basically
standing right next to OPS when GMIHC said they were in ‘good black’
and were ‘staying put’.
I asked him “Which OPS?”… but his only reply was…
“Field”.
I tried to ask a followup over there but I can’t get through.
Comments not appearing.
So does anyone know what AZFirefighter meant by that?
I was expecting him to say either “Abel” or “Musser”, since they are the
only two OPS that I know about working the Yarnell fire that day.
What does ‘Field OPS’ really mean… and WHO would that have been in
Yarnell on June 30, 2013?
Does that definitely still mean it was either OPS1 Abel or OPS2 Musser?
Which one might have been considered to be ‘Field OPS’ that day, since
there were TWO ‘OPSx’ operating that day?
For the sake of completeness… here is the full exchange copied over
from Wildfire Today…
ALSO NOTE: From the way AZFirefighter responds … there also seems to
be no question in his mind ( and he was THERE that day ) that this second
response to the second query of “Are you with Granite Mountain right now?”
in the AIR VIDEO was also, undoubtedly, Eric Marsh.
>> AZfirefighter on January 22, 2014 at 10:08 am said:
>>
>> I would have to agree with WTKTT… its sounds like “just checking it
>> out to see where we’re going to jump out at”.
>>
>> I was on the line that day, and while I did not hear this transmission, his
>> statement and the way he says it makes sense to me. I don’t hear “at the
>> house” at all. Further I never heard any transmissions about GMIHC going
>> to protect structures. In fact, I was with OPS when GMIHC stated they
>> were in good black and staying put.
>>
>> WantsToKnowTheTruth on January 22, 2014 at 1:50 pm said:
>>
>> Which OPS?
>>
>> AZfirefighter on January 24, 2014 at 1:04 pm said:
>>
>> Field
“Field” Ops, as opposed to “Planning” Ops. If you can figure out who “Planning” was, then you can figure out by deduction who “Field” was. I cannot remember off the top of my head. I THINK Musser was field, but I could be 100% wrong. If you cannot figure it out, get back to me, and I will go search my materials.
WTKTT – forgive me, but I am going to give you caution of the same sort I gave people regarding “blame” when these comment walls began: Be very, very, very careful when pressing on or questioning someone who was THERE and who is willing to post on comment walls. What we DO not want is that one lone person getting nervous and going away. Maybe that is intuitive to you and everyone else here, and, if so, I apologize for pointing out the obvious. So, kudos to you for coming here and asking us the question, to avoid pushing harder on the AZfirefighter.
Field OPS is the fire line people. wasn’t Musser the one that Marsh was talking to about the black? Or was that the Frisby conversation? and Musser came back with the hunker and be safe.
we have had people that was on the fire that day come to us and we allow them their privacy to speak and not repeat because nothing they gave us was worth sharing to risk their careers but you are right Elizabeth- just let the ones speak and be careful in to the questioning part yet as well “question” when you can because we learned a lot by us asking the questions to them no matter the question so I say I see your point Elizabeth but it also takes the questions to get the answers because some want to be asked not just blab what they saw-
Reply to Elizabeth post on January 25, 2014 at 7:55 am
>> Elizabeth said…
>> “Field” Ops, as opposed to “Planning” Ops. If you
>> can figure out who “Planning” was, then you can
>> figure out by deduction who “Field” was. I cannot
>> remember off the top of my head.
Found the answer to this in the ADOSH.
Field OPS that day was definitely Todd Abel.
Page 12 of the ADOSH report…
Yarnell Hill Fire Management Positions
Todd Abel – Operations Section Chief 1 (OSC-Field)
Paul Musser – Operations Section Chief 2 (OSC-Planning)
So, I’m in the midst of exporting a video out of LIghtroom, which I will then post to YouTube, and then link here, that is a compendium of time-synchronized (by me today) photos from the various Blue Ridge Hotshots folders in JD’s Dropbox folders.
This isn’t ALL of those photos, but a pretty big bunch of the ones that I thought were most important.
I spent a bunch of yesterday perusing, downloading, importing into LIghtroom, keywording, and then comparing them in various ways. I was also reading comments here, but not replying, because I was trying to stay focused on what I was doing, which was fairly complicated. I found it interesting that you all were finding Ball’s photographs interesting, because I was, too!
That’s an amazing collection, and I find myself awed as he is riding shotgun with some truck (towing/not towing the ATV?) as they drive around Glen Illah in the smoke and fire and dust, trying, at least I think (and I may be wrong) to find a way to get out/send the ATV out to get out through the fire to find where the Granite Mountain Hotshots are.
I spent most of today wrestling these photos, including McCord’s important photos (from a camera which was seriously inaccurately set vis a vis the time and date) into what I decided was a coherent sequence.
Then I spent some time trying to use the various iphone GPS data to locate photo locations on Google Earth for the iPhones which had that. Chris MacKenzie’s iphone GPs data, I think, accurately positioned his “options conversations” sequence on my Google Earth map. From there, I think I pinned various other photos he took before that and around that. Unfortunately, McCord’s iphone photos, which he had GPS coordinates attached to, were wildly off, sending his photos to someplace way northeast of the Weaver Mountains. I have no idea how that could have happened, and no idea how to fix that. And that’s a drag, because his photos are really important.
What I realized, after I did that was that I was pretty unaware of the locations of Marsh and the sawyers/rest of the crew before the “options conversation.” I’m still not certain of where the crew was, in whole or in part, located before the “options conversation,” and the general orientation of everything going on before it. That’s just my not following it before/during I decided to take on the challenge of documenting the Deployment Site. But I’ve begun to start pinning some points on Google Earth.
I need to get more clear about where Eric met with Frizbee that morning, which is where everybody says he was anticipating his meeting with Frizbee that afternoon. I have pinned a couple of places where I think that might be, but if anybody knows more accurately, I would love to know where that was. And where the crew was working around him that morning.
One of the things I found myself wondering about was, if the crew was working pretty much seriously north of where when they had the “options conversation,” why it was that they started heading south. Like seriously.
Another thing. The “options conversation” happened just over the ridge and down only a tiny bit from the helitac spot. Very close. That’s where the helicopter, which Joy photographed, picked up the two items and flew them away. Which kind of surprised me. The area in which Joy/Sonny saw the two men they thought were Eric and the Mystery Man (and which I’m still uncertain whether that was that or a helitac crew), was even further down and much farther from that, where a southern two-track road leads from there down into the valley below. I’m trying to get myself oriented in this larger landscape.
I grew up in and around Albuquerque. i rode horses all over the place. I taught horseback riding to Girl Scouts in the Jemez. I was a Southwest Archaeology Major and the Assistant Photographer for the Center for Man and Environment at Prescott College. I drew topographic maps for three years for publication. I hiked and led others to hike in the Grand Canyon for ten years.
That’s some of my creds. The experience gained via that lives with me. All of that stuff I”m trying to combine with what I now know how to do in order to contribute to this much needed ASAIR.
So, anyway. As soon as this slideshow/video is ready to be posted to YouYube, I will link it here. I hope also to make another one in which I will, instead of showing the file names, post the timestamps of them. I know how to do that, but I haven’t been able to make that one just yet.
Reply to Marti Reed post on January 24, 2014 at 11:20 pm
>> Marti said…
>> Then I spent some time trying to use the various iphone
>> GPS data to locate photo locations on Google Earth for the
>> iPhones which had that. Chris MacKenzie’s iphone GPs
>> data, I think, accurately positioned his “options conversations”
>> sequence on my Google Earth map. From there, I think I
>> pinned various other photos he took before that and
>> around that.
Nice work!
What happened with the original MacKenzie photos is that
calvin and I just had to try to ‘figure out’ where they were
actually taken from only what was in the photos. The
Prescott Courier and the Arizona Republic did NOT publish
any ‘originals’ so there was no chance at reading any
metadata… or knowing if the MacKenzie Canon Powershot
photos had any GPS data at all.
It was obvious from day one that most of them were NOT
taken at the single location that the SAIR was calling
‘the lunch spot’.
I think we did a pretty good job ‘geo-locating’ those various
‘resting spots’ shown in the photos… but have always known
it wasn’t perfect and might only be within 50 or 80 feet of
where they actually were.
If you can now EXACTLY PINPOINT those two ‘resting spots’,
that is great. I still haven’t had one second to even look at
all of those newly released iPhone photos.
If you have positive lat/long for BOTH of those ‘resting spots’
at this point… could you publish?
>> Marti asked…
>> I need to get more clear about where Eric met with Frizbee
>> that morning, which is where everybody says he was
>> anticipating his meeting with Frizbee that afternoon. I have
>> pinned a couple of places where I think that might be, but if
>> anybody knows more accurately, I would love to know where
>> that was.
In the Blue Ridge GPS tracking video… the ATV ‘arrives’ up
near the anchor point for that face-to-face meeting at exactly
11:54 AM. It stays ‘parked’ right in the same spot up there
until exactly 12:25 PM. ( Duration parked = 31 minutes ).
That spot where it was fully ‘parked’ for 31 minutes
is exactly here…
34.226892, -112.789131
Also in the BR tacking video… the ATV is ‘parked’ there exactly on
top of the spot that someone has labelled ( on that tracking video
background map )… “Retardant drop, anchor”.
BTW: It’s “Frisby” ( not Frizbee ). Brian Frisby.
Followup…
Marti… the reasoning behind why Brian Frisby would have
been heading to the exact same spot shown above for
that ‘second face-to-face’ meeting with Marsh is really
pretty simple.
It was the only way to get all the way up to that western
ridge using an ATV… and most assuredly the only way
Frisby knew how to get there.
If you look closely at the BR GPS Tracking video… you
will see that when Frisby and Brown were first heading
up for that first face-to-face meeting around noon… they
mistakenly went northwest from the old-grader location
and thought they were going to be able to get all the way
up onto the ridge two-track that way.
They were wrong.
That ‘northwest’ trail from the old grader location did
NOT make it all the way up onto the ridge. That was
simply the same two-track road that the DOC crew
allowed the fire to ‘escape’ from the day before… but
it doesn’t allow an ATV to make it all the way up to
the two-track on the ridge itself.
The GPS tracking video shows that they had to stop
and turn around and GO BACK to the old grader and
then take the OTHER two-track leg in order to get all the
way up onto the ridge for the meeting with Marsh/Steed.
So there was only ONE way to get all the way up
to that ‘anchor point’ location on an ATV that day.
That was the way they ( Frisby and Brown ) got there
earlier around NOON… and it would have been the
only way Frisby knew how to get all the way BACK up
there later when he was coming by himself for that
second ‘face-to-face’ requested by Marsh.
I’ve been contemplating taking a screensnap of my GoogleEarth map, as it is currently, and uploading it to Picasa and posting that. I may do that tomorrow.
Ciaio
we have made our own map using desert finds and a black magic marker. We are taking all the reported stuff, everyone here’s accounts and what we saw that day to come up with some questions which to some of you may think it does not make sense but to us we lived it and as we read the reports there are areas not in the reports and why? Why are things we saw not recorded in any report, log or interviews?
WTKTT said above:
“That ‘northwest’ trail from the old grader location did NOT make it all the way up onto the ridge. That was simply the same two-track road that the DOC crew allowed the fire to ‘escape’ from the day before…”
As a clarification, the dead-end two-track was not where the fire escaped from, the fire escaped across the two-track that skirts the ridge-line. They had been using that road to “hold” the fire up until then.
Dear Elusive:
Thank you for still being around here and making that correction. If you see NV, please drag NV back with you. The contributions of both of you are important.
WTKTT wrote
“That spot where it was fully ‘parked’ for 31 minutes
is exactly here…
34.226892, -112.789131”
Dang. When i plug those coordinates in on Google Earth, it’s actually south of the “options convo” spot as indicated by Chris’s coordinates via his GPS for it as indicated by his Iphone. They are:
34°13’38.99″N, 112°47’24.00″W, which looks to me to be exactly right where they belong.
The place I was kinda sorta think the meeting spot was here, up just above the place where the focked-over burnout happened:
34°13’54.62″N, 112°47’31.16″W
I haven’t done that much with google earth, so I’m still a bit fumbling. But I’ve managed to put together a map there that I think looks pretty good, except for some details. But you and I seem to be really off in some points.
Interesting
Namaste
The coordinates I gave you are simply where the
Blue Ridge ATV sat parked for 31 minutes.
I have no idea where the ‘face-to-face’ meeting
ACTUALLY took place. Maybe they parked the
thing and walked north/south… or something.
Brendan McDonough knows.
He was there.
I’m a little bit stunned by this. Since everything I read led me to believe Marsh was WAY further north than the options convo I’m having to re-orient myself quite a bit.
If you look at Chris’s photo 0883, the two sawyers are standing high on a rock appearing almost over the old dozer spot, which I placed at 34°13’52.96″N because of how the road coming into it lines up. I put the picture at 34°13’50.36″N, 112°47’19.14″W. That’s a really rough estiimate, but they’re looking out to the north from way up high towards the dozer which is just below that hillish area at the the base of which is the suppressant dumped on their backfire, which, if I’m estimating correctly is right along that northern arc of two-track road that intersects with the old grader spot. That’s the road I was assuming was the one Frisbee would have been riding on when he came across Donut and picked him up and then turned and rode back with him to the trucks, which are located further southeast and right where that road leads.
Looking at how all that stuff lines up with what I’ve been remembering I’ve been reading, I roughly estimated/located the Marsh/Frisbee meeting spot at 34°13’55.39″N, which is where all these roads lead as the proceed up and to the west.
OK Gotta get dressed and go have lunch with my mom. Will be back this afternoon, for sure!
I can’t believe this “optimized for YouTube by LIghtroom” slideshow-video is taking so long to upload. I’m really sorry about that.
GRRRRR.
It may not be possible for me to post it here before I fall asleep and wake up tomorrow morning.
I did enhance several photos in order to make it more clear what they were taken of.
So I may as well just sort of babble about what i saw, and found confusing while looking at all these photos (unfortunately Lightroom won’t include videos in its bare-bones video software, so I can’t include them.
There are several photos taken of the convoy heading up into Sesame Street from a position way to the right of it. I think they were taken from the ATV. I hardly think they were taken from a crew member on foot.
There is a media photo among the three media photos at the end showing the ATV in the Ranch House Restaurant parking lot. I had a devil of a time finding the link to it last night, but it’s posted here as slide #147 by MIchelle Lee, in this slideshow on Arizona Central, which also includes pictures of Sonny and Joy.
http://www.azcentral.com/php-bin/commphotos/show.php?colid=25768&slide_nbr=148&HTTP_REFERER=http://azcentral.com/search/imageresults.php#147
I plan to do another slideshow showing the timestamps instead of the file names, so you can get a bead on the relative differences in time between the photographs, but that will take some more time.
What confused me the most was that Ball seems to be driving something in at the beginning. He’s shooting out from the left side of a vehicle. i’m still uncertain if he’s driving that utility truck that, in the parking lot that evening has the ATV trailer attached, or what, and how far he goes with that. And, relatedly, I thought he was put in charge of operating the dozer, but he’s photographing in various ways behind it.
I could really use, for my google earth map, a couple of things. A location for where Eric met with Frisbee that morning, if possibe. And a location of where (and when) Blue Ridge parked their vehicles after moving them north from the GM vehicles. And I’d really like to know when they moved them to the Youth Camp. And I need a coordinate for the Youth Camp. I don’t know where to pin that, and since McCord’s GPS is obviously wildly out of synch or whatever, his awesome pictures of the Youth Camp when the fire hit it can’t be pinned.
I have absolutely no idea why an iPhone 4S would be so seriously inaccurate about GPS locating where it is. Totally baffles me.
Other things I’ve written above.
I found myself emotionally hit by looking at all the pictures Ball took while riding shotgun in that truck (who was driving and whether or not they were towying the ATV I don’t know), as they were wandering in the smoke around what I’m assuming, is Glenn Illah. They’re really really haunting images.
So it’s 53 hours past what should be my bedtime. I plan to read what people wrote today to orient myself around you all are at. And from what I have skimmed, it seems some of it is connected to what I’ve been dong for the past two days.
I’m so glad you are all here.
Marti… this thing isn’t going away.
Your instincts are spot on. Trust them.
In the meantime…
**DRINK**… **SLEEP**… **DRINK**… **SLEEP**
Not necessarily in that order.
I will give you every exact GPS coordinate you are
asking for tomorrow.
Thank you!! It seems we aren’t synched. Or something.
And I promised my mom I would have lunch with her.
But I’ll be paying more attention to the conversations here tomorrow. Now that I’ve pretty much got most of the heavy lifting done on the Blue Ride photos and videos.
PS: Best practices to all who go out there in groups and may need your digital media synched sometime. Please make sure your camera time settings are relatively accurate and your GPS settings are too.
Thank you,
The Yarnell ASAIT Camp Resident Digital Photographer
Marti, can you give me a sense of what your work work with the Blue Ridge photos will help us understand? I am trying to figure out what I am supposed to take away from your excellent photography work, and I am feeling dense. Sorry, and thank you.
A visual timeline of the wherabouts of the Blue Ridge Hotshots that day, as they were a part of Div A, and very much interacting with Granite Mountain Hotshots all day, in various places and several critical moments.
Ah, thank you, Marti. I need to go back and read the reports, because I had thought that the Blue Ridge guys did *not* ultimately end up working with the Granite Mountain guys for any meaningful period of time, other than to pick up Brendan. Sorry to have been dense.
Marti,
Regarding the iPhone 4 location: iPhones do have a GPS chip in them, but they use cell tower triangulation (AKA AGPS or assisted GPS) until they get 4 satellites to triangulate and correct time from. My iPod Touch does this triangulation with WiFi hotspots, and generally gets my location to within a tenth of a mile, but not right on. So it’s possible that the phone GPS is a best-guess triangulation on the ground.
I would trust a dedicated GPS unit over a phone every time.
Image 0885 from Mackenzie’s camera…….. Ashcraft is taking a picture with his cell phone. Does anyone know if this picture has been released with the FOIL material or anywhere else?
Reply to calvin post on January 24, 2014 at 8:00 pm
>> calvin said…
>>
>> Image 0885 from Mackenzie’s camera… Ashcraft is
>> taking a picture with his cell phone.
It most certainly looks like it.
If you look at the original photo in full size… even without any
enhancement you can also see exactly what’s on his screen.
He is aiming right at the fireline in the distance and you can
also see the standard Android camera APP shutter button
icon in the upper right corner of the screen.
It also appears that he is just about to press that shutter button
icon with his right thumb.
What we actually do NOT know is if he ever did ( press that
shutter button ).
I can’t imagine that he did NOT… but the only final proof
that he did will be when we see a photo that matches what
should have been taken at that moment at that location
from exactly where he is sitting.
>> Does anyone know if this picture has been released
>> with the FOIL material or anywhere else?
I haven’t seen it. Not yet, anyway.
There is an ‘Ashcraft photos’ folder already up in Mr. Dougherty’s
dropbox… but it only has TWO items in it.
One is just that picture he texted to his wife with the ‘dead tree’
in the foreground ( which cannot be the one the MacKenzie photo
shows him probably taking ).
The other is just a photo of his wife’s iPhone showing that she did,
in fact, receive that photo attached to a ‘text’ message that
Ashcraft sent her that afternoon.
So maybe the FULL contents of Ashcraft’s Android really were
lost in the fire. Maybe his smartphone was one of the ones they
were unable to recover data from… and we will never see that
picture that MacKenzie shows him taking ( or anything else that
he didn’t send out that day ).
** SIDENOTE: SAIT FOIA/FOIL MANIFEST
One of the ongoing issues here is that while we know now
that any number of people have received the full SAIT FOIA/FOIL
package(s)… no one who has it has stopped to simply publish
a simple MANIFEST of everything contained in that package.
So we don’t really know if there are any other ‘Ashcraft’ folders
that might be coming… or even other photos that haven’t
been uploaded to the existing folder(s) yet.
Even if the totality of those SAIT FOIA/FOIL package(s) never
actually makes it ‘online’… It still would be nice to just have
( for future reference ) a complete MANIFEST of what really
is ( or is not ) contained in it.
Image 0854 from Mackenzie’s camera… Doce Fire…. Robert Caldwell appears to be wearing the Red (supervisor) hat. I guess he was captain while Marsh was DIVS?
count me in sir to help out.
Finally some good news for Wildland Firefighters the NFPA had meetings this week on and will enact changes to the NFPA 1977 standard. A Wildland Equipment Committee to recognize the critical issue of fire shelter performance based test standards.
This is the 1st step to a much better product than what the Granite Mountain Crew and others use on a daily basis. I know that most of you posting and this forum are against having crews been in positions to ever have to deploy fire shelters, but at the end of the day. I still have to disagree with all of you on that issue.
As I have said in the past. I appreciate all the hard work that people are doing by scouring these reports, photos and all kinds of information that has been released courtesy of John Dougherty through his and others going to the trouble to get the data for the public information from the Arizona Dept. of Forestry.
This is not the end it is just the beginning, but it is a good 1st step to getting wildland firefighters critical safety year that they need to have in the field. I know that some of you have felt that maybe there is a possibility that the Canadians have it right that firefighter should not carry fire shelters at all and that they should not so that they do not put themselves in risky positions. 1st off, I do not believe this is an accurate position. The reason I state that is if you have ever looked at any of the photos for most fire from wildland firefighting operations. Most personnel are not directly in harms way.
Though none of you think of it every time a structural suppression us goes out to whether it be a traffic accident or a whole house fire or a business location fire. They always wear their turnouts, even if they are not going to be in the fire.
Through all the hard work that you guys have done it seems clear that The Granite Mountain Hotshot Crew, and it damn sure seems clear to me that the granite mountain crew did not leave the Ridge with any thought that their safety was in jeopardy. So again I go back to encourage all of you while you continue to look at how the management and radio communications played a part in the role of these young men’s deaths in the end all they had to depend on was there fire shelter that was provided for them. It seems fairly obvious at this time that other people in charge of this fire was not prepared to take care of the crew as they might should of been.
At some point time I will be asking all of you to start writing our congressional delegation for help. As matters to these kinds of issues.
Sincerely,
David Turbyfill
Mr. Turbyfill, is it possible to make affordable and lightweight fire shelters that can protect against SIGNIFICANTLY higher temperatures? If better shelters are made, will they be light enough to carry and cheap enough for the WFF to afford?
Again, I am so sorry for your loss, and I commend you for your efforts.
Mr. Turbyfill,
I am one of the ones adamantly opposed to another new fire shelter design, and I wish we would follow the way of the Australians and Canadians and not use them. With all due respect, new fire shelters are not the answer. Using driving vehicles as an analogy to WFF, we have plenty of safety equipment installed in them, yet we do not rely on those safety devices to save our lives. We use our experience, skill, training, and THE RULES for safe driving to succeed on the hazardous roadways. We don’t rely on our safety equipment to save us.
Redesigning fire shelters to withstand more heat will only make WFF depend on them more and/or rely on them more instead of following the WFF Rules. Many WFF are falling into this trap of undue reliance on them. That is very, very dangerous. The WFF Rules, on the other hand, are responsible for saving tens of thousands of lives each and every fire season.
I am truly sorry for the loss of your son, and I grieve everyday for the family, friends, and loved ones that lost the same on the YHF. I think about those men each and every day, and I pray for all of you daily.
Thank you, Mr. Turbyfill, for updating us on your work. I still have the same concerns as RTS, but I am interested to see what comes of this. As always, you leave me with much to think about.
Here is the “cleaned” audio apparently relied upon by John Maclean in his recent essay about Eric Marsh being at the Boulder/Helms Ranch. I do not hear “house” in the video, although Maclean and Holly Neill seem certain that they hear Marsh say that he is at the “house” (aka Helms Ranch). I hear “south,” but, admittedly, my ears are not great. As always, the rabbit picture is irrelevant. I just needed a picture in order to make the type of video that I could then upload onto Youtube and share here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nBmhS4fXM6I
Kudos, again, to Holly and John for their efforts, regardless of whether their conclusions are ultimately correct or not.
Thanks Elizabeth. I will never be able to express how thankful I am for all your effort, there are no words!
Thank you, Elizabeth! ( Ongoing thanks, of course ).
I have that (original) Holly/John audio clip here now.
I’ve extracted it to a WAV format high-fidelity track
and I am applying even MORE ‘cleaning’ to it.
They did a good job… but it can get even better.
Stay tuned.
who is R-58? he said he was at helibase at 9:04am…it also showed Musser wanted to go to helispot at 9am; is he R-58? and is he the “mystery man” seen with Marsh?
The helicopter. I believe that is the designation for the DPS helicopter (the department of public safety, I think). (I am going from memory here, so I could be wrong.)
R-58 would be short for “Ranger 58”. That’s the DPS helicopter
that was in the Yarnell area all day that day ( June 30 ) and
was ‘staged’ up near the ICP ( Incident Command Post ) at
the Model Creek School. Ranger 58 is the DPS helicopter that
would discover the actual deployment site first later in the
day and would then make two attempts to land right near
the deployment site… but then back off and land in that
little clearing just north of the Helms place and drop off the
medic ( Tarr ) who would hike 500 yards west and discover
the fatalities.
It is perfectly possible that Musser took a ‘ride’ with them at
some point in the morning to survey the fire… I don’t think that
would have been unusual at all… but Ranger 58 was not the
yellow helicopter. It was clearly marked as DPS and was
white and blue… and I don’t believe it ever landed anywhere
down south there west of Yarnell until after 5:00 PM when
it HAD to find a place down there to land to get the medic
( Tarr ) onto the ground.
Musser DID ride with them (as did Able) – fact.
so one of those men could be the mystery man who saw us with Eric Marsh—doesn’t he have anything to say on assisting when he arrived in that area so we can possibly better assess the photos—what was their arrival time to the helispot?
in the log it shows r-58 called and said he is on site at the helibase yet you said he did not land until late afternoon but the log shows 9:04:17am
???????????
Sonny… I could be totally wrong about that.
Ranger 58 was there all day.
I do not THINK they ever landed at the helispot
that day but it’s perfectly possible.
Go with your line of query and forget anything
I may have said.
If Ranger 58 DID land at that helispot at any time
that day then yes… I would imagine whoever was
onboard would have met up with Marsh and
talked to him. Why else would they land?
Sonny and WTKTT
Helibase is the main base. With fuel truck etc.
Helispot is the place on the hill.
each Helispot on the fire has a number
like H1, H2, H3 etc.
Exactly… that’s why you have to be careful
reading logs that they are not just reporting
takeoffs/landings from ‘Helibase’ versus
some other place like ‘Helispot’.
Joy caught it earlier. Thank you for catching it too.
Reply to Sitta post on January 23, 2014 at 4:20 am
>> Sitta said…
>>
>> **GPS Unit?**
>>
>> Check out YCSO photo 049, and you can see a couple carabiners in the
>> lower right corner. I think the GPS unit might be down there.
That’s the right photo ( the one I found after calvin first saw the GPS unit
on Caldwell’s right-front pack strap in the MacKenzie photo ) but what I
believe is Caldwell’s actual Garmin Oregon 450 GPS unit is lying buried
(face down) in the dirt at the TOP-RIGHT-CENTER of this YCSO
IMG_0049.JPG photo.
Other way to find it… just look straight up from the RIGHT end of the radio
in the photograph. It’s right there near the top of the photo buried face-down
in that area of dirt along with lots of small pieces of white stuff ( shelter
remnants, I assume ).
That object lying face-down and about half-buried in the dirt has the exact
right color and profile to be the BACK of a Garmin Oregon 450 GPS unit.
It has the right ‘curves’ and even the right little ‘bulbous’ appearance on
the back of one end of it where the battery compartment is.
It appears to be UNDAMAGED… it’s just buried in the dirt.
Here is a direct link to YCSO image 0049 that we are talking about…
https://plus.google.com/photos/115249047962550271237/albums/5962242148909920913/5962257071716564034?pid=5962257071716564034&oid=115249047962550271237
So… whatever became of that (obvious) electronic device just lying
there in the dirt? It’s not a camera. It’s not a smartphone.
Who picked it up? What did they do with it?…
…and WHERE IS IT NOW???
are maybe a Monster energy drink-
wow, to sit here and really look through the pages- we have open fire community page of Bill Gabbert’s that as you know John Dougherty has offered us both an immense of info. from the start but man there is a lot to absorb to learn fire terminology and behavior and such first and now we are here reviewing your information John Dougherty and Elizabeth and THANK YOU for taking the time and bandwidth and I do not care if we are redundant in our appreciation but wow, we are gaining a lot of knowledge and highly recommend the locals who asked me for the links to Bill and here to learn and read when you got the time. Our question is who made this John; https://www.dropbox.com/sh/m8yu1588y5bq0ju/Ad_g96m9Jy/I-Dispatch%20Records.pdf?
Is that narrated or facts as it happened? I am jotting notes where it does not match to that day- if any. Yet are they stating 34 13.7x 112.47.5 was the lightning strike area? We will go there again but we did not see anything to the area that showed that to be correct.
Interesting entry in that Dispatch log…
06/30/2013 1349 ( 01:49 PM ) DH Diverted all air tanker
to the Yarnell fire due to imminent threat to homes
per B-3 and the Ops Chief.
WHO are ‘DH’, ‘B-3’ and ‘Ops Chief’, I wonder?
1:49 PM is long before any of the ‘trigger points’ were
met that day ( on the south side of the fire, anyway )
according to the SAIR.
DH–Division head– Arizona State division Supervisor???
yeah that same link it is very odd they mention in log at the same time Sonny said “let’s get the hell out of here” the evacuation—pre-evac—etc.
So why did they stay in there so long?
Also why didn’t they go out the same time as Donut the same way they all came in that day versus that dense area? Please if anyone knows because I have not read it yet WHO made the Helm’s place a safety zone. I can understand the home being well cleared but not the area around it. So much easier if they stayed in the black or dropped like us on the Congress side. Some photos are hard for me to see-
Sonny and Joy
I agree with you totally so Why?
As an old Fire Fighter I would never have ID the Ranch a safety zone, unless I was 100 Yards from it not a mile and a half in flashy fuels, even an cut escape route to it would not have been survivable in emergency need. It is not a feasible alternative, to the Black they were already in. And there in lies my quest for the answers.
I have also lived hunted and worked in the mountains all my life from the time I was 4. So when I see a 2 track trail 4 wheel trail and I know there is a ranch at the bottom. I know that trail came from the ranch and I would stay on it, not go beating out thru the brush if I wanted to get out in a hurry. or just walk out with out a hassle. I am sure you know that well.
My only conclusion Granit Mountain Supervisors decided they could take a chance and beat the fire to the ranch…………
THE FIRE BEAT THEM…..
as it always dose when there are no plans laid out and safety factored in.
And there in lies the final supervisor responsibility of there deaths. The mistake they made is and always will be theirs. That will never change no matter why they went there.
Bingo! All the rest is ultimately noise. I will always believe that those in charge knew about and likely encouraged their move. But the final call rested with the GM overhead and they bear the responsibility for what happened. They could have stopped a disaster from occurring and they simply failed to do so. It sucks to no end, but the downside of having great responsibility is that your mistakes can have grave consequences. Goes with the job.
And Mike it hurts because there are no real Hero’s here just fire fighting Brothers who made a horrible decision. what’s to learn what we have been teaching and following for 57 years. Can we get better Shelters only time and science will answer that.
What I think is very revealing in the
AIR STUDY background radio captures
( the ones that can actually be CLEARLY
heard ) is that when someone calls
( at 4:16 ) and asks…
“Granite Mountain ( Five or Fire? ), what’s
your status right now?”
The REPONSES appear to be from BOTH
Marsh and Steed… and neither one of them
actually mentions “the ranch” or a
“safety zone” at all.
The RESPONSES from Marsh and Steed
were simply all about ‘escape route’ and
‘pushing down into the structures’.
Marsh is the one who responds first
to the query ( before Steed can respond )
even though the caller was asking for
‘Granite Mountain’ and not DIVS A…
+0:54.09 to +1:03.81
Eric Marsh: Well the guys… uh… Granite…
is makin’ their way out the exact
escape route from this mornin’… an’ it heads…
ah… (pause) SOUTH. ( slight pause ) mid-slope
( cuttin’ over? ) ( cut road? ).
It is only just AFTER this response from
Marsh that Jesse Steed then ‘chimes in’
on behalf of ‘Granite Mountain’, who the
caller was originally asking for…
+1:07.18
(Jesse Steed?): We’ll be pushin’ our way
down into the structures.
So notice that NEITHER one of them says
they are ‘headed for the ranch’ or ‘a
safety zone’ at all. Marsh only says
“makin’ their way out the escape route”.
Steed even specifically says that just
‘making it to the ranch or the safety
zone’ wasn’t even their intention at all.
Steed specifically says…
“We’ll be pushin’ our way down into the
structures.”
So it would seem their INTENTION, even
as late as 4:16 PM, was NOT just to get
to the ranch at all. The ‘ranch’ was just
what they could see as the way to
‘push down into the structures’ of
Glen Ilah itself.
I think that means they really had no
intentions of just hanging out at the ranch
at all even once they got there. It would
seem, at 4:16 PM, that they still thought
they were going to have time to make it
all the way into Glen Ilah.
Not a realistic expectation… not even at 4:02
when they were still ‘discussing their options’…
and SURELY not as late as 4:16 PM when these
radio conversations took place.
I still find it hard to believe that as late as
4:16 PM… when someone in command heard
Jesse Steed say “we’ll be pushin’ our way down
into the structures”… that command didn’t come
right back at him with…
“Whoa… WHAT structures? WHERE? What are
you talking about? WHERE are you RIGHT NOW
and are you SURE you have FULL EYES on
the fire?”
Link WTKTT – please give us the link….
Elizabeth… link to what?
The quotes in the post just above
are CLEARLY heard in any of the
existing copies of that conversation
including the original AIR STUDY
video itself with no audio
enhancements.
I’ve already posted my own link(s)
up above to the enhanced audio clips
I’ve done so far… including the
one they missed at the beginning
of this entire conversation where
ASM2 insists that someone call
Granite and ask them if ‘Alpha’
is actually ‘with them’ or not.
WTKTT… The discussing their options conversation occurred before Mackenzie cell picture 2737, immediately after Todd Able says Air Support, Down There, ASAP (my opinion)
Copy that. I still think this ‘discussing
their options’ and/or ‘comfort level’
talk that we, ourselves, keep referring
to was not just one conversation.
I believe it was a ‘series’ of conversations
that took place from the time Brendan
left his lookout post until they all
headed south circa 4:05 PM.
Remember… what we ACTUALLY
hear Marsh say in Christopher’s
first video is “…when I called you
BEFORE and asked you what
your comfort level was.”
That automatically means there was
at least one other ‘call’ ( from Marsh
to Steed ) that was all about
‘comfort level’… and it happened
BEFORE the first MacKenzie
video was shot.
Agree, Possibly after they told Musser NO at 1542?
Yes. I’m still waiting to
see if the AIR VIDEO
surfaces where
Elizabeth was pretty
sure she hears Musser
raising Marsh on the
radio. I wonder if that
was that moment…
and how much of that
conversation might
actually be captured
in that video.
Mr. Dougherty’s
“Air Study” link on
the dropbox still
just says ‘Pending’.
WTKTT and Bob Powers,
Regarding “WHO are ‘DH’, ‘B-3′ and ‘Ops Chief’, I wonder?”
DH is one of the Dispatchers, just check the log, the initials are all through it.
B-3 is Bravo 3 – pretty sure
Not sure on the Ops Chief
WTKTT,
I looked at the photo again (thanks for the direct link). I still say that’s not a Garmin Oregon 450 GPS, and the lower right end of it looks like it has a lip/rim.
You can see photos of the back and sides of the Oregon 450 here:
https://buy.garmin.com/en-US/US/on-the-trail/discontinued/oregon-450/prod63349.html#gallery-dialog
I just don’t think it looks anything like the object in the upper right of the photo.
WTKTT—Yes I think it is very important to know who was talking to Marsh.
I am having some droughts now that it was fire camp and could very well be a city or county person or unit like an engine With all the different traffic some one is monitoring a lot with several different radios on different frequencies. or scanning on different ones with the main fire frequency on one radio. Posted here because our discussion was way back.
I am still hearing a very distinct ‘accent’ on whoever it is that
responds to ASM2’s insistence that “someone call them right
now and ASK them if Alpha is WITH them”.
Regardless of whatever ‘call sign’ he might have been using
when he clearly transmits…
“Granite Mountain, ( Five or Fire? ), Wuz yo status rat now?”
…I would think anyone working the fire that day should be
able to easily recognize who this is.
Regarding the ‘multiple channels’… yes… near as I can tell
there are at least two fellas in the foreground doing their
job of filming this upcoming retardant drop… and discussing it,
and the both appear to have handheld radios.
So not only do we have BOTH of their ‘voices’ locally… it
seems that both of their radios were set to different
channels. I am guessing one was set to “Air to ground” ( since
we seem to hear all that traffic ) and the other fella had
his set to ‘scan mode’ and he was capturing multiple ‘other’
communications as they popped up on other multiple
channels.
Add in the wind… and the cars going by… and this is a
tough one…
…but not impossible. I’ve heard worse… and I’ve seen worse
get fully cleaned up eventually so there is no mistaking what
is being said. I believe that will happen.
In the meantime… I still believe there are good enough ‘clean’
versions of this audio for someone to be able to identify
WHO is talking to Granite Mountain.
I am sure behind the scenes the state investigators are going nuts right now and trying to find out the same and other questions of those that are still allowed to answer. My guess.
I certainly hope so ( add in the people doing prep
work for the lawyers in the pending lawsuits ).
I certainly hope ‘we pitiful few’ ( Shakespeare )
aren’t the only ones who can see that MOST ( but
probably never all ) of the answers are just lying
there on the table… and always have been.
I ABSOLUTELY, 100% disagree with you WTKTT. I am mentioning this just because you sound incredibly confident in your view (I could be misreading that – apologies if so). I do not want folks to think that nobody disagrees with you. I do. That’s not to say that I am right. Rather, that’s to say that we need a bunch of other people to listen many many many times as well.
Elizabeth… roger that. Totally understand.
What is or isn’t actually being said in some of these
background audio conversations is going to be
debated for quite some time, I’m sure.
All any of us can do at this point is to honestly
report what we believe we are hearing… in those
spots where it simply is not altogether obvious
what is being said.
I know that you don’t even think that is Marsh
who is answering the “Are you with Granite
Mountain right now?” query where the word
‘house’ is supposedly heard…
…but are you of the same opinion for the part
where someone is, in fact, answering the
other “Granite Mountain…. what’s your status
right now” query?
That’s the part I was referring to up above.
I have heard disagreement about whether that
is Marsh LATER in this audio capture… during
the “Are you with Granite Mountain?”
query/response…
…but I think it’s pretty accepted that the person
answering the “Granite Mountain, what’s your
status right now?” query is, in fact, Marsh.
I am NOT being argumentative.
I am just trying to be clear about exactly what
you meant above when you say you are in
“100 percent” disagreement” with me.
Just trying to clarify what that really means.
“… but I think it is pretty accepted…”
No, it is not.
Absolutely not. Why did you think otherwise? Unless you have a version that I do not have, it is still a bit of a guessing game, to some degree, in terms of *who* is speaking (much less what they are saying). I am a bit surprised that we are this far apart on this, but these things happen.
“… but I think it is pretty accepted…”
Reply to Elizabeth post
on January 24, 2014 at 9:06 pm
>> Elizabeth said…
>> “but I think it is pretty accepted”
>> No, it is not.
Ah… okay… Thank you!
I understand what you are saying now. You personally don’t believe
that Marsh is being heard
ANYWHERE in that particular AIR
STUDY video.
>> Absolutely not. Why did you think
>> otherwise?
Because for THAT particular part
of the video/audio… I believe I have
seen any number of people both
here and on Wildfire Today agreeing
that the person answering that
first “What’s your status?” query
is, in fact, Eric Marsh.
It’s one of the ‘clearer’ parts of that
audio and if that isn’t Eric talking
then it’s someone who talks/speaks
just like him.
Besides… after comparing that voice
that is speaking at THAT PART with
the ‘accepted’ voice of Marsh in
the MacKenzie video(s)… I, myself,
am personally convinced that at
least that one part of that audio is,
in fact, Eric Marsh speaking.
I would put money on it, myself.
>> Elizabeth also wrote…
>> Unless you have a version that
>> I do not have, it is still a bit of a
>> guessing game, to some degree,
>> in terms of *who* is speaking
>> (much less what they are saying).
>> I am a bit surprised that we are
>> this far apart on this, but these
>> things happen.
Okay… one more time here.
I think you are RIGHT.
I think SOME parts of that particular
audio clip will be debated with regards
to WHO is speaking and WHAT they
are actually sayiing for years to come.
However… I disagree with your
assumption that the ENTIRE thing
is a ‘guessing game’.
SOME parts of it are… I believe…
not only perfectly clear but the
speaker is also clearly identifiable.
ONE of those parts is the part I
was quoting up above… when I
( me, personally ) am convinced
that it is Eric Marsh responding to
the first “Granite Mountain… what’s
your status right now?” query.
You disagree.
That’s okay.
Gary, I am not a firefighter but Joy and I did witness the drop in question. For one thing it seemed a high drop so the retardant thinned a lot before reaching ground. Also it was dropped from West to East parallel to the progress of the fire. I told Joy as we were watching that I thought the small plane it was had to stay high due to mountain wind currants. I am not a pilot either so perhaps some of the pilots that were there will discuss those conditions.
Now talking to the question whether if properly dropped, would it have possibly stopped that wildfire. I certainly believe the progress to the south would have been substantially stopped in that boulder area. However, at the time of the drop the wind and fire were moving to the NE.
Just over the hill about 1/4 mile and in between the canyon from where the Hot Shots were working was an extremely dense area of manzanita. There would be an old abandoned gold mine about 3/4 ways up the mountain just the other side of that area. Wayne and Holly Neill and Ted Putnam marked off the area where GMHS crew had first cut down the mountain then to the north in an attempt to stop the progress to the NE. It was futile since we witnessed the fire progressing up a wide span of 1/2 to 3/4 mile and overtaking a mountain side that we timed to be less than 14 minutes in approximately a half mile. That is when things began to get hairy and it was quite obvious from the violence of the fire that there was no way this fire was controllable so that if wind changes happened your life would be in Jeopardy. We had the distance and location to escape and obviously we did not take the route the GMHS chose.
It is windy here and overcast so we could take a bit of time on this lap top and Joy’s MIFI to get out some answers. She is trying to see if she recognizes Marsh’s voice in some of the videos provided by Elizabeth. Thank you Elizabeth for making those available.
thank you
Just wanted to add that it’s nice to have Gary, Joy, and Sonny back in the conversation.
you can thank Holly’s article. We were going to take a breather due to Joy’s health and Sonny fixing his jeep but we are here. Thank you Sitta. I guess everyone plays a serious role for the truth to be revealed and we can look at the records and photos and have our own questions that no one can because we seen the fire at the fire edge and we now read the records, logs, reports, interviews, articles and a lot of information is not in them so to us being we were there sheds light as to what are they hiding? 100% transparency is necessary throughout this whole thing.
.P24 SAIR…..As BR Supt is en route to pick up drivers to move the Granite Mountain crew carriers, SPGS1 contacts him to ask if they still have the option to burn out from the dozer line. BR Supt tells him no. DIVS A, hearing the transmission, agrees and says he believes the fire is almost as far as the Granite Mountain vehicles.
According to BR captain tracker and Fire progression map.
1. Br Capt. gps tracker arrived at GM crew carriers at 1620
2. The fire progression map has the fire meeting the GM parking area minutes later….roughly 1625?
So, if Eric Marsh radioed that the fire was ALMOST at the crew carriers (shortly before 4:20) say 4:17, that would put Marsh in a position to SEE the buggies minutes after the controversial new audio at 1613.
While it is safe to say we do not know where Marsh was at 1613, it is ALSO safe to say he had to be near the same area where he could SEE the buggies between 1613-1620
Thoughts?
My thought if he was at the ranch I don’t think he could have seen the parking place from that lower elevation. I think the buggies had to have been moved before 1613 so a little confused with the BR GPS time. Still searching??
I agree Mr. Powers, IF Marsh was at the Ranch he couldn’t see the buggy parking area
Joy/Tex… It looks like there is a small knoll/hill/mound (or whatever) between the deployment site and the ranch, just to the left of the road that was created to access the DZ… if you are looking from the DZ toward the ranch.
Do you think the buggy parking area was visible from anywhere on that mound? Thanks
I am wondering if the crew or Marsh could see the Trucks any place on the Fire none of the Pictures show them that were taken on the hill. I think the generally knew where they were and BR was the only one who had occasional eyes on the trucks. I think they were around a corner of a slight ridge and had larger trees or brush in front of them. Plus some of the smoke that was laying down in that area. just some thoughts of mine.
some areas from the mountain top you could see the buggies as that is how Joy got her photo of them was by mountain top but some areas you could not see them for the exact reasons you stated- boulders and vegetation.
Mr. Powers, The GM buggies are visible in the Wade Parker pic and I think a couple of others. Not image 0885, 0886 or 0887 though
The GM crew buggies seem to be clearly
visible in the distance in Robert Caldwell’s
video.
That’s the video that captures OPS1 Abel
clearly telling Marsh…
1) Keep ME informed ( of your situation ).
2) Hunker and be safe ( in the black ).
3) We will get some Air Support down
there ASAP.
About halfway through the video, as
Robert pans south, two small white
objects come into view in the distance
at about the center of the right side
of the video frame. They end up
almost dead-center in the video
right before it ends.
Enhancement shows them to be SQUARE
white objects… and they are exactly where
the GM Crew Carriers should be when
viewed from where Robert was standing.
So Marsh saying “I can see the buggies”
is obviously an important thing.
They COULD be seen from up on the
ridge… but it would have been totally
IMPOSSIBLE to see them from
‘the ranch’… or anywhere down
in the box canyon.
Better eyes than me a good catch I probably wasn’t looking for them at the time I looked at that.
See Sonny’s response below
about being able to see the
Carriers from either the ranch
or the deployment zone.
Sonny has now verified ( as per
calvin’s question ) that if you
were up on one those
MOUNDS that were just
west or around the outside
perimter of the ranch… then
you probably COULD see
the GM vehicles over in
Sesame area…
…but NOT if you were simply
at ground level at either the
ranch or the deployment site.
I agree Mr. Powers, IF Marsh was at the Ranch he couldn’t see the buggy parking area
FROM SOME ANGLES YES YOU WOULD HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE BUGGIES—THE BUGGIES WERE PLACED IN A NATURAL CLEARING.
Joy/Tex… It looks like there is a small knoll/hill/mound (or whatever) between the deployment site and the ranch, just to the left of the road that was created to access the DZ… if you are looking from the DZ toward the ranch.
Do you think the buggy parking area was visible from anywhere on that mound? Thanks
YES. I HOPE A CERTAIN JOURNALIST THAT REACHED US IN 2014 CAN GET THE CLEARANCE FOR A DAY PASS SO WE CAN RECREATE THE GMHS HIKE IN AS WELL AS OUR HIKE IN AND OUT AND WHEN THAT HAPPENS WE WILL POST A VIDEO THAT SHOWS YES TO YOUR QUESTION. IF SHE GETS THAT HIKE GRANTED THIS WILL BE VERY BENEFICIAL TO THE STATE AND COUNTY BECAUSE WE WILL BE ABLE TO CLEAR SOME CLOUDINESS AS WELL FOR THEM. THE VIDEO WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS WELL TO SHOW YOU ALL THE SHORTCUT SPOTS JOY HAS MENTIONED OVER TIME NEAR THE ONE TRUCK PARKED ON HER PHOTOS WHERE MAN IS WEARING YELLOW SHIRT AND SITTING IN DRIVER SEAT. THERE HAS TO BE A YOUTUBE VIDEO PRODUCED THAT NOT ONLY HAPPENS TO HELP STATE/COUNTY BUT HELPS YOU ALL SEE THE AFTERMATH TERRAIN AS IT UNFOLDED THAT DAY 6-30-13. I KNOW SO MANY ARE GUNG-HO ON THE CLAIMS AND SUITS YET I AM FOR CLARITY FOR ALL AVENUES SO PEOPLE CAN MAKE THEIR OWN PROPER ASSESSMENTS.
we answered everyone and it did show earlier as posted but they vanished???
yes to your answer.
Sonny and/or Joy…
Just to be clear…
Are you saying that someone COULD have
seen the GM Crew Carriers parked way
over in the Sesame area IF ( and only if? )
they were up on one of the mounds
down there near the deployment site
or the ranch…
…but unless you were UP on one of
those mounds… you would NOT have
been able to see them ( from either
the ranch or the deployment site )?
Just trying to clarify.
4th attempt to reply.
Yes.
Got it. Thanks!
Duplicate comment detected; it looks as though you’ve already said that!
5th attempt.
Yes. to answer you.
Got it again! Thanks again!
Gary,
The June 30th AA that dropped on the GMHS burnout twice frustrating Marsh was Rory Collins from the Oregon Douglas Fire Protection District and dispatched through the Oregon Division of Forestry (ODF). ODF is FAMOUS for going direct, NOT burning out, and the like, so it was not at all surprising to me that he was dropping on Marsh’s burnout.
You said “It is inconceivable to me that an air attack would overrule a ground commander and deliberately drop on his back fire. Do I have that wrong?” NO, you do not have it wrong. It’s just what ODF does. Just look back to the 2013 Douglas Complex in OR. That fire grew in size daily for weeks because they were insisting on going direct and weren’t burning out.
Joy said, “Also I will always question until I pass on why did they place the retardant the way they did that got not only Eric Marsh frustrated but me as well that 6-30-13 morning. That was a question for the air attack from me.”
I think that is a very good question and one I have been wanting to ask. I will defer to the other wildland firefighters on this question, but…it seems to me this was a contributing factor. If they had not dropped on the Granite Mountain Hotshots back fire, maybe there would not have been the fuels left for an inferno to reach them that day?
It is inconceivable to me that an air attack would overrule a ground commander and deliberately drop on his back fire. Do I have that wrong?
I believe it was a firing out operation securing there line as they went and yes, as you and I would have been lived not a happy Div. Boss. As I am sure Marsh was. They were trying to secure line across the hill below the burn line as fast and easy as they could.
Not working with the DIV. Boss Air Attack screwed that up. Like every thing else on this Fire.
Although I do not want my comment earlier in the day to be interpreted as a criticism of Holly. In fact, I want to commend her for some very impressive investigative work, and I do realize she was not making any definitive conclusions.
WantsToKnowTheTruth, thank you.
I guess it has been difficult for me to ever get involved on the blogs to dig deeper because of the pain. This is too close to home to see some of the photos as I have but even better for me to SEE it since I know the community as well as the terrain so I am now committed to you all. Sonny says we have all suffered from this tragedy. He had planned to buy a home last Summer there. The air quality since the fire has shifted us to the outskirts of town. It has effected many peoples’ health already. The air did not stop Sonny as much as it was the whole dynamics of life has changed there.
When you drive thru- next to the Assembly of God; across from the Ranch House restaurant ===to the right of the church was a lady in her 80’s that passed on a few months after the fire—she had just lost her husband in recent years and we have tried to contact her son and all we can to help clean that up yet everyone who comes through town SEES even though the town (YHRG) is rebuilding;
some things just cannot be rebuilt—due to loss. It is a reminder every time I hike there how some are passed up when upon returning and some are gracefully shown much attention—it should have been equal all around yet many did not even know where Marlene was after the fire and it was us that informed the Emergency Relief Joan Brown of where she was and then her passing on.
I really would have been offline had not Holly sent me that email link to check out Bill Gabbert’s page in the next few days as she said…now you know what,
I am going to stick around and get you all the answers and ask all the questions. I can always rest later.
Sonny says Joy is brilliant at finding the answers while Sonny is just trying to understand the questions. Sonny believes that it is people like Joy and the folks here and the folks we hiked with that will encourage all of us to stay here until we get to the answers. There is no competition or comparison of who’s comment wall is better—it is about getting to the bare truth.
J-Resource Orders, page 207 of 213:
GMIHC manifest, including the quals of each crew member. Here’s the list of qualified sawyers:
Steed FALC
Whitted FALC
Carter FALC
Marsh FALB
Ashcraft FALB
Rose FALB
Norris FALB
Mackenzie FALA
Turbyfill FALA
McDonough FALA
Thurston FALA
Faller A – C (starts at A, most experienced is a C — can handle bigger trees and more complex felling situations). None of the others should have been operating saws, unless they’d gotten qualified since the crew manifest had been written.
Interesting that it’s missing Dustin Deford. Thanks for finding that.
It was taken with an iPhone at exactly 4:47 PM ( +2 seconds ).
So my next question to that photo was WHEN was the final retardant made over at UStow It storage unit/ Maughan Ranch Feed Store area during that crucial moment from the big jet plane you see on the videos and how long did it circle before unloading? Sonny’s eyes are not able to adjust to screen and his next ? he had was how many other retardant planes were in the air or missioned for that hour? Also since the ranchers were told to stand down on Friday with their retardant planes, were they ever available or used later?
Now for my question to the people investigating—why would they do in the most crucial moment a drop over at the least residential home area when the fierceness of that fire was heading right to Shrine/Sesame area south where there were subdivision homes/older homes/etc with people?
Also I will always question until I pass on why did they place the retardant the way they did that got not only Eric Marsh frustrated but me as well that 6-30-13 morning. That was a question for the air attack from me.
Sonny wants to know the value of that retardant from the big plane? also the final retardant cost?
The Cost should be available in a Fire financial statement that the State would have on the Yarnell Hill Fire. Should be easy to find. Each Fire has to provide one.
thank you Bob Powers
thank you for igniting me by your article Holly. I was going to finally take a personal breather off the net and get more involved with my medical massages (by Dee Sickles; Flagstaff, Arizona) and focus on my health yet your article gave me the right spark that with my observation skills I will now be much more involved and when I review not just my photos again; the eyewitness accounts but everyone else’s including locals’ photos and videos that are not publicly viewed I will state I will be focused to a new level to this investigation versus just being the desert walker who hiked you all. 2014 is going to get very very interesting—
Reply to Joy A Collura post on January 23, 2014 at 6:26 pm
>> Joy asked…
>>
>> What time was (Cory Ball) #1890?
>> I know a person very interested in knowing that time.
It was taken with an iPhone at exactly 4:47 PM ( +2 seconds ).
Blue Ridge Hotshots Photos and Videos > Cory Ball folder
** IMG_1890.JPG
Metadata ( partial )…
Camera: Apple iPhone 4S
Lens: 4.3 mm
Exposure: Auto exposure, Program AE, 1/15 sec, f/2.4, ISO 800
Flash: Off, Did not fire
Date: June 30, 2013 – 4:47:02 PM
File: 2,448 × 3,264 JPEG (8.0 megapixels)
Image compression: 90%
Here is a direct link to Cory Ball’s IMG_1890 photo…
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/dpmmrutwwk4a45b/Na5mHX5mJg/Ball#lh:null-IMG_1890.JPG
**
** HOW TO SEE TIMESTAMPS ON PHOTOS
Now that there are ORIGINAL copies of photos sitting in Mr. Dougherty’s
online Dropbox… I just thought I would remind everyone that it is really
EASY to see the ‘metadata’ ( including timestamps and GPS info )
that might be ’embedded’ in any of these photographs.
You do NOT have to ‘download’ anything.
It can all be done right there in your browser while you are looking at the photos.
It’s really, really easy.
Just call up whatever photo in the dropbox you want to look at, and when the
‘black background’ screen appears just either right-click that photo and
pick ‘View original’ or use the little ‘More actions’ tool icon in the lower right
corner of the screen ( 3 little DOTS ) to make the same choice.
Once the ORIGINAL photo appears… just click once in the address bar of your
browser and the entire address will be highlighted. Right-click that highlighted
address, then just pick the word ‘Copy’. This copies that entire address for this
‘original copy’ of the photo to your clipboard.
Then just open up the following web page in another browser window…
http://regex.info/exif.cgi
At the top of that page is an INPUT box that says…
Check a file on the web…
Image URL: [_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ]
Just right-click inside that input box and then pick the word ‘Paste’.
That is going to ‘Paste’ the full address of the photo that you just copied
to your clipboard into the input field.
Once that happens… just click the button to the right of this input field
that says “View Image At URL”
That’s all there is to it.
If there is any metadata at all ( like timestamps or GPS information ) in that
original copy of the photo sitting in Mr. Dougherty’s dropbox it will now appear
in your browser.
thank you- very helpful
Reply to Joy A Collura post on January 23, 2014 at 6:39 pm
>> Joy said…
>>
>> on Desoto’s 01 photo—would like the accurate time of that?
>> That is Fred Brown’s home in photo which was across from the
>> Ranch House Restaurant near the Assembly of God church.
The Desoto 01 photo was taken at exactly 10:23 AM ( +14 seconds ).
This Desoto 01 photo was taken with an iPhone 4S that had full GPS location
recording turned on at the time, so the exact latitude and longitude ( along with
speed and compass heading ) is ’embedded’ in the picture data as well.
Metadata ( partial )…
Filename: yarnell-desoto 001.JPG
Camera: Apple iPhone 4S
Lens: 4.3 mm
Exposure: Auto exposure, Program AE, 1/1,783 sec, f/2.4, ISO 50
Flash: Auto, Did not fire
Date: June 30, 2013 – 10:23:14 AM
Location: Latitude/longitude: 34° 13′ 0″ North, 112° 45′ 31.8″ West
Location Decimal: ( 34.216667, -112.758833 )
Altitude: 1,478 m
Speed: 28.65438374 km/h at a bearing of 335° (NNW)
File: 2,448 × 2,448 JPEG (6.0 megapixels)
Image compression: 88%
>> On January 23, 2014 at 6:48 pm, Joy A Collura also said…
>>
>> #3 and 4 are important to me to get accurate times on
>> BR Papich’s folder and 17, 21, 26
I’m sorry, Joy… the way you worded that I don’t fully understand what else
you are asking for.
Are you saying you want more data ( like exact time ) for Desoto photos
3 and 4 as well… or Papich’s photos 3 and 4?
Desoto item 003 is not a photo. It’s an Apple Quicktime movie of that
known VLAT retardant drop taken from where the Granite Mountain
vehicles were parked.
Desoto item 004 was not taken with his iPhone.
It is just a frame from the 003 movie created sometime after June 30, 2013.
Ditto for Desoto photos 005 and 006.
They are all just frames extracted from the 003 movie after June 30 and saved
in PNG ( Portable Network Graphic ) format. No timestamps available.
There are only 7 total photos/videos in the Desoto folder so I am going to
assume your requests for 17, 21, and 26 might be referring to Papich
photos 17, 21 and 26 ?
Problem there is that there are also no images numbered 17, 21 and 26 in
the Papich folder, either.
The Papich folder only contains the following filenames…
IMG_3942 through IMG_3958
Plus IMG_4007.png
yarnell-Papich 001.JPG through yarnell-Papich 009.JPG
In case it was the Desoto images 3 and 4 you were asking
about… here’s more information on those…
** Desoto Photo: yarnell-desoto 003.JPG
It’s an Apple Quicktime Movie of a VLAT retardant drop shot
from where the Granite Mountain vehicles were parked.
No internal timestamp available.
** Desoto Photo: yarnell-desoto 004.PNG
There is no metadata or timestamp embedded in this photo
of the retardant drop taken from where the GM vehicles were parked.
It appears to be just a frame capture that someone took from one of the
frames of the 003 Movie and was not taken by Desoto’s iPhone.
It was created after June 30, 2013.
** Desoto Photo: yarnell-desoto 007.JPG
Oddly enough… THIS Desoto photo of the same exact retardant drop does still
appear to be an original from his iPhone. His GPS was on and it is stamped
with the exact location of where the Granite Mountain Vehicles were parked…
…but somehow the original TIME stamp has been REMOVED from the
metadata for this photo. The only thing left in the metadata is the original
GPS location data… as follows…
Metadata ( partial )…
Location: Latitude/longitude: 34° 13′ 40.8″ North, 112° 46′ 12″ West
Location Decimal: ( 34.228000, -112.770000 )
Altitude: 1,483 m
how to time stamp answer will avoid me from asking when a photo was taken in the future but if I find something good that helps the investigation I will share results but thank you again for doing that. I am cracking some areas down that as I do it the faces of people I care about that lost their homes I see them in the images and the horrific feeling they must of felt not just for losing their home but to think of the chaos of the many accounts of how they learned of the evacuation and how close they were to losing their lives as well and so this spark to not rest is for you all plus the fallen 19. Hard not have emotions about this when we were at the fire edge and saw how containable the fire was on Friday, Saturday and Sunday morning. Again sorry for the loss in this.
A friend of mine made an important point to me. Even if Eric Marsh said “house” on the voice recording, he may not have been referring to the ranch house. For example, “the house” could have referenced a large boulder that had some meaning to them earlier in the shift. When rocks are dislodged and go crashing down steep slopes, the firefighters above are obliged to yell “rock” loud as they can, and the message is passed in that way to those who are lower down the slope.
After a particularly large boulder went crashing down the mountain one day, someone yelled “Volkswagen” because it was the size of a Beetle. After that, we called all large rocks bouncing down the slope Volkswagens, and everyone knew what that meant.
Gary… I was going to mention that myself at some point along
with another word choice that Maclean/Holly made for one
of their translations for the YARNELL_GAMBLE video.
Re: House
Even if he was there… Marsh would have said “ranch”.
That’s the way the place was being referred to ( the few times
it actually was that day ) by everyone else. I think even if he had
been in the ‘house’ itself just shooting the breeze with the owners
he would have still said “I’m at the ranch” over the radio.
Re: Superintendent
MacLean/Holly also did their own translation of the
YARNELL_GAMBLE video shot by BR Hotshot Mccord.
They translated the last part of the ‘MysteryMan’ transmission
urging Marsh to “come as quick as you can” as…
“…but you’re the superintendent”.
I don’t think the very last part of what ‘MysteryMan’ says there
matters all that much one way or the other, or negates the real
fact that this is now another verified communication between ‘fire
command’ and Eric Marsh in a time when the SAIT says there
was NOTHING…
…but even so… that just sounds really, really odd.
That’s an awfully long ( and formal ) word to use to end your
transmission for people who are famous for being ‘terse’
on the radio.
I believe the last part of that “come as quick as you can”
transmission from ‘MysteryMan’ is simply…
“…but you’ll figure it out.”
…but even if I am wrong and he does say something along the
lines of “…but you’re the superintendent”…
Isn’t it REALLY more likely he would have just said…
“…but you’re the sup.”
Why is the “Yarnell Gamble” video named “Yarnell Gamble?”
I am 100% serious.
When I first saw it I thought it could be someone’s name?
That is one option. Someone with spare time can look into that, I suppose. I think it is relevant, in case anyone reading this OTHER than Calving cares….
Elizabeth… see a posting I made
about this back in chapter 3.
I believe the Blue Ridge Hotshots were
complying with the SAIT request for
any/all materials that might be relevant
to their investigation… and obviously
the Blue Ridge Hotshots had all the
right permissions from their
employers to fully cooperate with
them ( unlike the ADOSH effort ).
I also think it’s obvious that what
the Blue Ridge people supplied
the SAIT was ‘CDs’ with material
on it that they, themselves, had
already ‘copied off’ their plethura
of devices.
So I believe it was BR hotshot
Mccord himself who chose that
name for the file on the CD he
was making. The device itself
would not have ‘named’ it… so it
had to be either Mccord or someone
at the SAIT who thought that was
an appropriate name for this video.
I also believe that BR Hotshot Mccord
heard MORE of this conversation,
and that was the basis for him
choosing the name ‘yarnell_gamble’.
All WE can hear is the part he
captured with the device…
…but Mccord was obviously sitting
right there in the BR Crew Carrier
hearing the ENTIRE conversation.
Mccord was never directly interviewed
but the SAIT and ADOSH wasn’t
really allowed to interview any
of them directly.
That was my point.
Copy that.
My short answer would
( should ) have been…
“I think Mccord chose
that name because he
heard the entire
conversation and the
word ‘gamble’ just
seemed an appropriate
description of what
he was hearing.”
Except how could we possibly be the only people who are catching this point and pushing on it further? (Obviously we are not, but why hasn’t anyone written about it or any such thing… ? The fact that PEERS would give a video such a label SAYS something.)
Yes.
It does.
I don’t have
an answer
for you.
Part of the
known coverup?
Agree
Agree.
Correction for my original response ( up above ) to Gary.
The original Holly/John interpretation of what ‘MysteryMan’ says
to Marsh in that YARNELL_GAMBLE video did NOT have the
full word ‘superintendent’ on the end. They believe the last
word said is ‘supervisor’ and not ‘superintendent’.
From the original Holly/John transcript published over at
Wildfire today ( They call ‘MysteryMan’ simple ‘First voice’ )…
First Voice: “Copy … coming down and appreciate if you could go a little faster but you’re the supervisor.”
My comment above still stands, however.
If ‘MysteryMan’ really did finish his statement along those
lines I think he would have just simply said “… but you’re
the sup” ( and pronounced it as SOUP ) instead of
the full word ‘supervisor’ or ‘superintendent’.
For anyone still interested in what the Blue Ridge ATV really looked like…
This is the best picture I’ve seen of it so far.
It’s in the Blue Ridge Hotshot Desoto folder.
It was taken at 10:38 AM while the BR Crew Carriers were still ‘staged’
over in the Sesame Area and before they were all moved over to the
‘Youth Camp’ staging area on Shrine road.
That appears to be Brian Frisby ( in the ball cap ) standing in front of it
and talking to Blue-helmeted BR Capt Trueheart Brown in the driver’s seat.
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/dpmmrutwwk4a45b/2mPMpQnjIl/Desoto#lh:null-yarnell-desoto%20002.jpg
Metadata ( partial )…
Camera: Apple iPhone 4S
Lens: 4.3 mm
Exposure: Auto exposure, Program AE, 1/1,200 sec, f/2.4, ISO 50
Flash: Auto, Did not fire
Date: June 30, 2013 – 10:38:03 AM
File: 2,448 × 3,264 JPEG (8.0 megapixels)
Image compression: 91%
John Dougherty=
A07-BLM Crew VideoA08-Blue Ridge Hotshots Photos/Videos: https://www.dropbox.com/sh/dpmmrutwwk4a45b/QziASuJSh_
A08-Blue Ridge Hotshots Photos Videos: https://www.dropbox.com/sh/dpmmrutwwk4a45b/QziASuJSh_
======================================
a07 and a08 are the same link?
#3 and 4 are important to me to get accurate times on BR Papich’s folder and 17, 21, 26
See a longer post not too far below with some answers.
on Desoto’s 01 photo—would like the accurate time of that?
That is Fred Brown’s home in photo which was across from the Ranch House Restaurant near the Assembly of God church.
The Desoto 01 photo was taken at exactly 10:23 AM ( +14 seconds ).
See a longer post about this not too far down below that also
answers some of your other questions about the other photos.
I knew you were doing this John Dougherty but Sonny and I are now taking the time to review each folder and the questions we post John- we hope you or someone answers because we are now slowly reviewing even our own and further deeply investigating areas where we had planned to take a rest the recent article by Holly Neill sparked us to get our a** in gear and really sit down and look being I know that community and terrain I may help as well have questions. By the way Mr. Ball- your photos compliment where we saw you that day—compliments our accounts we shared and great photos; thank you.
direct me to where to find out about obtaining information or reaching the bulldozer driver or get their whereabouts that day? Is it part of the FOIA? who was the driver? A BR guy?
Cory Ball has a folder under the BR folder of pictures/videos here at IM with all the other pictures (including yours). Cory Ball was working with the dozer that day, and I have been reviewing his photos today. Could you look at pictures 1882, 1883, 1884, and see if you know where they were taken?
Can anyone verify if Jason Clawsson was working with the dozer that day, or do you know where he was, or who he works for?
Joy/Sonny…. Thanks for the response last night, I have read it all and really appreciate you taking time to answer my questions.
Thanks all, and I agree with Marti, it has been nice and much more productive without the interference.
Could you look at pictures 1882, 1883, 1884, and see if you know where they were taken? Yes Calving (soft smiles) that is area of Sesame Street (on assessor- Baluco/Whitehead/Maughan Ranch area)
what time was #1890—I know a person very interested in knowing that time.
Image 1885 is timestamped 4:28.16…. Sorry that is the last one I have a time for…. I am sure marti, or WTKTT can tell us. I had to get some help today for the few times I have.
Reply to Joy A Collura post
on January 23, 2014 at 6:26 pm
>> Joy A Collura said…
>>
>> What time was #1890—I know a person very
>> interested in knowing that time.
It was taken with an iPhone at exactly
4:47 PM ( +2 seconds ).
See a longer post not too far below with some
more detail on this.
Reply to calvin post on January 23, 2014 at 6:05 pm
>> calvin wrote…
>>
>> Cory Ball has a folder under the BR folder of
>> pictures/videos here at IM with all the other pictures
>> (including yours (Joy’s)). Cory Ball was working with
>> the dozer that day, and I have been reviewing his photos
>> today. Could you look at pictures 1882, 1883, 1884,
>> and see if you know where they were taken?
Blue Ridge Hotshot Photos > Cory Ball folder
** IMG_1882.JPG
Metadata ( partial )…
Camera: Apple iPhone 4S
Lens: 4.3 mm
Exposure: Auto exposure, 1/968 sec, f/2.4, ISO 50
Flash: Off, Did not fire
Date: June 30, 2013 – 3:26:58 PM
File: 3,264 × 2,448 JPEG (8.0 megapixels)
Image compression: 87
This is the one already detailed up above with BR Captain
( Asst. Sup ) Trueheart Brown standing in the foreground
and the dozer is working over near the white gate with the
two round wooden fence posts.
The name ‘Brown’ is on the back of his Blue Helmet,
as you discovered earlier.
It appears that photo was taken about 2/3 of the way west
on the cut-over road that connected the Sesame area and
the Shrine area.
That would match the reported activity of BR at about that
time. They were still trying to prepare that ‘cut-over’ road
for a possible burn-out around that time.
The key to locating this photo is to look at the ‘original’ in
full-size mode and look just to the left of the dozer itself.
You will see a white gate with two large ( round ) wooden
fence posts holding it in place.
I believe that is the ‘locked gate’ with the ‘explosives’ sign
on it that has been mentioned a few times in the YIN notes.
I don’t think they were ever able to get that gate unlocked.
What you see them doing in the photo is that they decided
to just bulldoze AROUND it to complete their work that day.
I believe Brown is standing exactly here, facing almost
due north…
34.226309, -112.762719
That white gate with wooden posts is exactly here…
34.226554, -112.762804
NOTE: I could be wrong about these coordinates. It all
depends on whether that is the right ‘gate’ in the picture,
or not. Regardless… I still believe the location is
somewhere on that cut-over road between the Sesame
area and the Shrine area.
** IMG_1883.JPG
Metadata ( partial )…
Camera: Apple iPhone 4S
Lens: 4.3 mm
Exposure: Auto exposure, 1/986 sec, f/2.4, ISO 50
Flash: Off, Did not fire
Date: June 30, 2013 – 3:30:02 PM
File: 3,264 × 2,448 JPEG (8.0 megapixels)
Image compression: 86%
This one was taken three minutes after IMG_1882 and
shows the dozer coming back towards the camera with
the blade lifted and the entire crew of BR hotshots working
to the right of the dozer.
Same area as IMG_1882. Somewhere right there along
the cut-over road that connects the Sesame area with
the Shrine Road / Youth Camp area.
** IMG_1884.JPG
Metadata ( partial )…
Camera:Apple iPhone 4S
Lens: 4.3 mm
Exposure: Auto exposure, 1/245 sec, f/2.4, ISO 50
Flash: Off, Did not fire
Date: June 30, 2013 – 3:50:35 PM
File: 3,264 × 2,448 JPEG (8.0 megapixels)
Image compression: 90%
This one was taken 20 ( TWENTY ) minutes after the
previous IMG_1883 image and does not show the dozer.
This one is quite a distance away from the previous two.
The camera has traveled SOUTH now towards Glen Ilah
through the Sesame area and the photo is taken about
100 yards west of where the paved roads of both
Lakewood Drive and Manzanita Drive come together
and ‘end’.
If you go through that white gate in the right side of the
photo and walk about 80 yards east you will now be
standing on the paved part of Lakewood Drive in Glen Ilah.
Whoever was taking the picture was standing exactly here…
34.221714, -112.763162
The camera is facing almost due north and the smoke
plume in the distance represents the same fireline that
is about to be seen in other photos cresting the north
ridges over by the Youth Camp over in the Shrine Area.
>> calvin also wrote…
>> Can anyone verify if Jason Clawsson was working
>> with the dozer that day, or do you know where he
>> was, or who he works for?
Not me. Are you sure you have the name spelled right?
There isn’t even one single Google hit anywhere for
a ‘Jason Clawsson’ ( with two ‘s’ letters )… but there
are tons of hits for a ‘Jason Clawson’ ( just one ‘s’ ).
There’s a Jason Clawson who is an AFMO (assistant fire management officer) at the Prescott National Forest in this article from 9/13:
http://www.dcourier.com/main.asp?SectionID=1&SubsectionID=1&ArticleID=122777
I wonder what he’s doing in the interview notes.
Here we go, from the YIN:
“Medic said 18, Trew counted 19, Clawson got on scene and confirmed 19 and then Clawson left to the home owner. Bucky and Aaron were all pretty quiet. 5 went down then the DPS officer. 6 all together. They all walked to the house. The other 3 besides Brian and Trew were Prescott NF guys who were ordered w/ the T2 team they were sent down to help.”
The Lewis Type 2 crew was given instructions to be at “Prescott Office” at 0800 (it doesn’t specify NF or FD, but I’ll bet they were meeting up with Prescott NF guys who were part of the crew. This would probably include Jason Clawson, and it sounds like he was one of the first on the deployment scene.
Wow, thanks Sitta
Calvin,
I’ve looked through the dispatch resource orders:
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/v8x3epmb8nent9l/JeqvhLLMKv
I can find no resource order for a dozer boss on 6/30/13, but there is one for a heavy equipment boss (HEQB).
Request Number: O-21
Ordered Date/Time: 06/30/13 0227
Resource Requested: Heavy Equipment Boss, Single Resource (HEQB) (T-A)
Needed Date/Time: 06/30/13 0900
Resource Assigned: Hernandez, Joseph (T)
Estimated Time of Arrival: 06/30/13 1045 (Compare needed time to ETA — we can’t always get resources as soon as we want them.)
I’m guessing this is our dozer operator, but I’m not positive. I could not find a “Clawson” among the resource orders.
Thanks Sitta. According to the DPS helicopter guys, they were unaware of HEQB status while searching for GM. I find it very interesting that the HEQB and I guess the Dozer itself were unaccounted for after 1800 that day.
This Jason Clawsson, J Clawson, J Claussen, shows up several times in the YIN. The WFF in the helmet cam video is trying to get “Jason” on the radio.
I am looking for any evidence that would tell where the dozer was at time of burnover.
Oh, that’s weird. I see what you’re describing in the YIN. I did searches through the resource order pdf for “cla”, “clo”, “kla”, “klo”, “holbert”, “halbert”, “dowl”, and “dowel” with no luck. There is a Jayson Coil on the Type 1 team, but he didn’t arrive till that evening.
Jason Allen Biggerstaff – Helicopter crew member (HECM) – ETA 12:45.
Jason Kucera – HECM – ETA 14:45
Jason Ryan Hall – FFT1 – with Arroyo Grande IHC, which seems to have arrived on 7/03/13.
Jason Herrick – FFT2 – with Navajo IHC, which seems to have arrived on 7/01/13
Jason Riggins – DIVS – arrived on 7/01/13
None of these make sense. Maybe it was someone on a Type 2 Crew? (Lewis, Yuma, or Globe?) Those crews don’t have individual members listed in the resource orders.
Hall and the Short Team, began ordering resources outside of the “normal” ordering system as Hall admitted to during his interview. He stated he had “no confidence in the ROSS system”. He called Bea Day, asking her to send some of her team’s operations people (sort of under the table, so to speak).
It’s highly possible Clawson was part of that process, or else a result of other phone calls outside of the “normal” process. THOSE requests, might not show up on a resource listing.
The Dozer Operator (whomever that was) could not work until a Dozer Boss was pulled from the BR shots. I assume that that person would have had to stay with the Dozer, even when it changed locations, until a qualified DB showed up.
The Truth Will Always Remain Elusive on January 24, 2014 at 11:26 am said:
“The Dozer Operator (whomever that was) could not work until a Dozer Boss was pulled from the BR shots.”
Okay, that actually makes sense, because the (T) after Hernandez’s name means he was a trainee, and would have to work under a qualified DOZB or HEQB.
Sitta, TTWARE….. Thanks! It appears the Ball was not with the dozer late in the day, image 1885 4:28. I think it is important to find out what happened to the dozer after 3:33.
Ther is a picture taken by Tom Story, and published in the Christian Science Monitor Jul1 (I think) that shows the utility trailer (I can’t see if the UTV is inside) behind a BR truck at the Ranch House Restaurant.
Has anyone seen the tractor/trailer that was used to move the Dozer(s)?
Image1882 from Ball of BRIHC…… There is a hotshot in view from the back. This photo is time stamped 3:26.58. There is a name on the back of the helmet that says BROWN. Does anyone know if that is Trew (Trueheart) Brown?
Reply to calvin post on January 23, 2014 at 5:33 pm
>> calvin wrote…
>> There is a picture taken by Tom Story, and published in
>> the Christian Science Monitor Jul1 (I think) that shows the
>> utility trailer (I can’t see if the UTV is inside) behind a BR
>> truck at the Ranch House Restaurant.
You are exactly right.
Just over the roof of that white extended cab pickup with the
big yellow horizontal stripe ( the one that looks like a NAPA
auto-parts delivery vehicle ) you will see the aquamarine roof
of what appears to be one of BR’s small pickup trucks.
Attached to that pickup truck is a black metal trailer with
a large fold-down gate shown emerging just at the rear
of the ‘NAPA’ colored pickup. The trailer looks just like one
of those ‘lawn-garden’ trailers everyone sees all the time.
The drop-down drive-in gate is in the UP position, and the
ATV does NOT appear to be in the trailer.
This would make sense… since there are two photos in the
Blue Ridge Hotshot Papich folder that show the ATV still
‘on the loose’ over there at about the same time this Tom
Story photo was taken over at the Ranch House Restaurant.
>> calvin also wrote…
>> Has anyone seen the tractor/trailer that was used to
>> move the Dozer(s)?
Not me. Not yet, anyway.
>> calvin also wrote…
>> Image1882 from Ball of BRIHC… There is a hotshot in view
>> from the back. This photo is time stamped 3:26.58. There is
>> a name on the back of the helmet that says BROWN.
>> Does anyone know if that is Trew (Trueheart) Brown?
Pretty much has to be. As far as we know there was no one
else named ‘Brown’ with Blue Ridge that day.
It appears that photo was taken about 2/3 of the way west on the
cut-over road that connected the Sesame area and the Shrine area.
That would match the reported activity of BR at about that time.
They were still trying to prepare that ‘cut-over’ road for a possible
burn-out around that time.
The key to locating this photo is to look at the ‘original’ in full-size
mode and look just to the left of the dozer itself.
You will see a white gate with two large ( round ) wooden fence
posts holding it in place.
I believe that is the ‘locked gate’ with the ‘explosives’ sign on it
that has been mentioned a few times in the YIN notes. I don’t
think they were ever able to get that gate unlocked. What you
see them doing in the photo is that they decided to just bulldoze
AROUND it to complete their work that day.
I believe Brown is standing exactly here, facing almost due north…
34.226309, -112.762719
That white gate with wooden posts is exactly here…
34.226554, -112.762804
Recent emails I have received over the new audio tape that has been found have brought me back into the fray. Yes…I know I am unstable and erratic, but I do want to apologize to RTS for our little spat over gloves and shirt sleeves. I did realize how irrelevant my thoughts are on gloves, that is a major rabbit trail, the Granite Mountain Hotshots did not die because they were not wearing gloves or even oven mitts. The best gloves and oven mittens in the world would not have saved them from that inferno. We still do not know the real reasons why they died.
BUT…there is one thing I do know for certain. The work the ASAIT is doing under the leadership of our primary investigator, WTKTT, with the assistance of Elizabeth, Marti, and our resident fire guru, Bob Powers, in addition to everyone else on the team, is without question the most valuable work that is (or has) been done anywhere at any time by anybody, in terms of quality, quantity, relevance, and importance. I am going to start following this tread again because of how important I think this work is in learning the truth about what really happened to the Granite Mountain Hotshots.
I am going to stick with my vow not to add noise to the discussion however, (as much as possible, yes, I know, I have a big mouth). I have already given wildland firefighter background and history from my perspective, in addition to my random thoughts…ad nauseum, so my comments will be few and far between. I don’t really know anything else anyway, and I am incapable of figuring out the finer points of this conundrum.
No wildland firefighting equipment that can both be made by people and carried by wildland firefighters would have saved the Granite Mountain Hotshots from themselves that day. I strongly believe that if the answers are ever found, they will be found in understanding the complex and nuanced culture of wildland firefighters. And even more important…the human factors that make wildland firefighters, and specifically hotshots, get up and go to work when what they really want to do is stay with those that love them. There is nothing however, that can ever be said that will fix my broken heart or the hearts of who those who loved the Granite Mountain Hotshots.
So…the bottom line is this…if the ASAIT is willing to put in all of the hard work, the least I can do is to follow all of the hard work. Besides…as I have already stated, I don’t really know anything else anyway. All I ever wanted to be was a hotshot, and I never wanted to fight wildfire without the crew. The only wildland firefighting strategy I know is too “See wildfire…put it out!” And…I only know three wildland firefighting tactics:
1. Cut direct line and burn it out.
2. Cut indirect line and backfire it.
3. Cut direct and indirect line and burn it out and backfire it.
Pretty simple.
Gary=== I for one am glad your back and hope you will stay and you do have a flare of writing that I do not. I truly look forward to your book I hope you put some time into that endeavor as I know it will be well read. Your Hot Shot Bro. Bob
Thank you Bob.
Gary,
No offense taken. No big deal. You, like many of us are pretty deeply involved in the YHF thing and many times it gets emotional. I told everyone you’d be back.I think I used the phrase that you were an ex-cop and you were “lurking out there.”
And yes, good safe WFF iinvolves some fairly basic principles and rules. You just have to know them and abide by them.
I am very glad that Gary is back. I’m not ashamed to admit that I was at least one of the people who e-mailed him to ask him to please continue participating with this group. I think that Gary is THAT important to this team.
There are only so many experienced, wise, relatively senior WFF who are willing to respond and share information with us on this public forum. Gary is crucial. He also gives a hell of a pep talk when civilians like me are ready to throw up our hands and say “forget it.”
Welcome back, Gary.
Thank you Elizabeth.
Thank you RTS.
The Truck next to the ATV trailer is defiantly a USFS truck the one towing the trailer could be to but see no markings although the FS will rent lease trucks for the Summer so possible that is the trailer. If it is a 2 seated side by side ATV it would not fit in a truck bed. if a one seat caries 2 it would fit in a truck 46 in. wheel base on those. The bigger ones are about 50 in.
OMG! I haz water!!!!!
One day and a thousand dollars under the estimate!!!
Yay!!!
I have obtained a copy of the “cleaned” audio that Maclean and Holly indicated they had professionally produced and then used for their essay, but I am sorry to say that the sound quality is not great. I think WTKTT’s audio skills gave an equally good product. That is not to denigrate Holly (who is a regular reader of these comment threads on InvestigativeMedia). I commend Holly and Maclean for their efforts, regardless of whether they were wrong in concluding that Marsh was at the Helms Ranch. The whole point of these discussions, in my view, is to try to cultivate better information, and making a number of missteps on the way there is just part of the process. So kudos to Maclean and Holly for putting themselves out there. And kudos to all of you on this thread, of course.
Just so everyone knows… the product I am using here to ‘clean’
the audio being found in all these videos is not some big
expensive product ( even though I DO have access to those ).
It is a FREE PUBLIC DOMAIN sound editing program called…
Audacity. Version 2.5.
The reason I am using it is because it actually far surpasses
the capabilities of even some of the most expensive sound
editing programs on the market. It’s an amazing product,
and it’s FREE.
Anyone can download it and use it. It’s not hard to figure out.
You can download it ( For Windows, Unix or Mac ) here…
http://audacity.sourceforge.net/download/
PS: Elizabeth… in either/both of these clips… are you
yourself hearing Marsh say …
“Nah… I’m at the house…”,
or do you think he’s simply saying…
“Uh… I’m just checkin’ it out…”?
WTKTT – it is NOT MARSH speaking. That is my honest opinion. Maybe I am losing my mind, but I REALLY do NOT think that it is Marsh.
If anyone wants the private link to the youtube video of the cleaned audio, please e-mail me, and I will send you the link. I marked it “private” just because I do not want to upset Holly or Maclean if there is some reason why they are not sharing it with folks themselves. (To be clear, I did not GET it from them, so I can certainly do what I want with it, but I do not want to step on their toes.)
Reply to Elizabeth post on Jan 23, 2014 at 7:51 pm
>> Elizabeth said…
>>
>> WTKTT – it is NOT MARSH speaking. That is my
>> honest opinion. Maybe I am losing my mind, but I
>> REALLY do NOT think that it is Marsh.
Fair enough. It actually might NOT be.
Not sure how we will ever get that verified but it’s
one of those background quotes that’s important
enough to pursue simply on the basis that it
MIGHT be Marsh.
Regardless… since you have heard BOTH of
the cleaned audio clips now… what do you
think ( whoever that is ) is really saying?
Are you still hearing “Nah… I’m at the house…”
in EITHER of the clips?
Elizabeth… scratch my last question.
I asked it before I saw your post on
Wildfire today where you say both
of the following…
1) You do not hear the word ‘house’.
2) You do not think it was Eric Marsh.
From Wildfire today…
On January 23, 2014 at 8:02 pm
Elizabeth said:
>> I actually now have the cleaned version
>> of the audio finally in my possession.
>> If you e-mail me at “elizabethreyarnell”
>> which is a gmail account, I will send it to
>> you. Or I can post it on YouTube and Bill
>> (Gabbert) can link to it if he wants to.
>> Whatever works best. But the audio is
>> the actual “cleaned” audio that
>> Holly/Maclean used – I tracked it down.
>>
>> I do not hear Marsh saying anything about
>> a “house” – I actually do not think that it is
>> Marsh speaking – but I do not have great
>> ears, either. People can listen for
>> themselves. Clearly Maclean and Holly
>> put a lot of time into this, for which they
>> should be commended.
Question for everybody, if somebody knows. Regarding the Blue Ridge ATV.
Was the morning “staging area” at the Shrine area or somewhere else?
if you go to Yavapai County Assesor and use the GPS mapping- search HELMS—use LAYERS to map which has imagery, property ID, etc. you can lay on top of the map so on that notion I can tell you if you are there—they all went in the Baluco/Whitehead/Maughan Ranch area near the Helms, Shrine & Sesame between those areas to the old grader area—hope that helps you.
Sonny I am responding here as I can’t get thru on Wildfire Today. Thanks for your input there it answered my questions on time for March to get to ranch. If he was at the Ranch at 4:13 he would have had to head there at 2:45 which was 45min. before he was to meet Frizby. So he would have had to cancel the meeting with Frizby at the location they were to meet. That seems unlikely so Marsh could not be at the ranch or he could not be on top at the meeting spot. so something is really haywire here.
Thanks for all your help.
Reply to Marti Reed post on January 23, 2014 at 11:35 am
>> Marti asked…
>>
>> Question for everybody, if somebody knows.
>> Regarding the Blue Ridge ATV.
>> Was the morning “staging area” at the Shrine area or
>> somewhere else?
Well.. as we have seen recently with the flood of new evidence
that is now available… whatever we thought we might have
been sure of before could easily turn out to be wrong…
…but here is what I will still just call the ‘current thinking’ about
Blue Ridge arriving and staging in Yarnell that morning.
Blue Ridge didn’t ‘show up’ in Yarnell until just before 9:00 AM.
I don’t know if that means they were ‘late’, or not… but they
missed some important briefings.
They actually had multiple ‘staging’ areas that morning as
they worked themselves into the fire.
The first known photographic evidence of their presence in
Yarnell is, I believe, still that video they shot themselves
in the parking lot of the Yarnell Hill Fire Station at 8:50 AM.
So that was their first ( known? ) ‘staging area’ that morning.
The video proves they were all just standing around in the
Yarnell Fire Station parking lot waiting for someone to
tell them what to do.
I believe it was then Cordes who ‘escorted them out to the
Sesame area’ ( Where the GM vehicles were already parked )
and this would be ‘staging area 2’ for them that morning.
We have their own pictures to prove that’s where they parked
all their vehicles and were ‘suiting up’ and whatnot… but they
were still pretty much ‘waiting for an assignment’.
After a while… they moved all the vehicles over to what would
be their third ( and final ) ‘staging area’ for the rest of the day.
That would be the ‘youth camp’ over on Shrine road.
This ‘youth camp’ is NEAR the actual St. Joseph Shrine itself
( where the helmet-cam video was shot )… but just farther west
of there after the Shrine road pavement ends. It’s a large
clearing ( with a small bridge seen in satellite photos )
about 300 yards west of the St. Joseph Shrine itself.
That’s where they parked all the BR Crew Carriers and this
would eventually be the spot the entire BR ‘convoy’ would
depart from later in the day when it was ‘time to get out
of Dodge City’ circa 4:15 PM.
Here is that original video showing their FIRST ‘staging’ stop
that morning at the Yarnell Hill Fire station itself…
Video Title: yarnell 076
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oFWKxSIRgWk
This video was shot from the parking lot of the Yarnell Hill Fire station around 8:50 AM, July 30, 2013, or a little before that.
This is also the video that clearly captures one of the Blue
Ridge Hotshots saying to another one…
+0:01: “Yea… we’ll be ready to go and then it will be OFF.”
( Firefighter near him laughs in agreement ).
The camera operator is here… in one of the parking spaces at
the Yarnell Hill Fire station…
34.222514, -112.746177
WTKTT
On your research radio transmissions.
The person that is on the radio asking questions of GM.
It is possible he is a fire camp dispatcher and would be on the list of people assigned to the fire. He would be asking and transferring messages from fire staff. from the base radio and that would also be where the IC would be talking from. After the move to the new location they would have had better contact with the fire. they would have had more than one radio at that location. Air and fire frequency’s, local engines on local channels can get very confusing when everyone is talking. I have been there as a supervisory Dispatcher.
Another one of my certifications during my last years in the FS.
Mr. Powers… you beat me to it.
I was just about to ask you a similar question.
ASM2 pretty much INSISTS that ‘someone down there’ give
Granite Mountain a call RIGHT NOW and try to verify if
‘Alpha’ ( DIVS A ) is actually WITH that group of men that he
can now see “behind those hills” there “on the corner ( of the
fire )”… at 4:16 PM.
The person who DOES immediately fulfill this request on
the part of ASM2 calls out to ‘Granite Mountain’… but there
actually seems to be another WORD right after that
which is REALLY hard to hear.
That ‘word’ is ( I am almost sure ) either “Five” or “Fire”.
So when the person ( with what I perceive to be a ‘Cajun’ accent )
actually comes onto the radio what he actually says seems
to be one of the following…
Granite Mountain Five, wuz yo status rat now?
OR
Granite Mountain, Fire, wuz you status rat now?
Following standard radio protocols ( TO, FROM, MESSAGE ),
would the simple designation “Fire” ever be a valid way
to identify YOURSELF when making a call out?
Would identifying yourself as simply “Fire” have any real
meaning to the person being called… such as “Fire camp”,
as you are suggesting?
My only explanation for the alternative word “Five” would be
that the person calling ( or relaying, as you say ) simply
didn’t know Granite Mountain that well and he is just
mistakenly referring to them as…
“Granite Mountain Five”.
Should be Fire Base under my old info brain.
Granit Mountain–Fire base–your status right now.
Wuz could be base. Just guessing.
Mr. Powers… thank you!
There is definitely at least one word there after
‘Granite Mountain’ and the ‘what’s your status’
query… but there MIGHT be two.
It MUST be some kind of attempt to stick with
the ( TO, FROM, MESSAGE ) radio protocol.
I can’t believe, after all this fuss about radio
protocols, that some of these people would just
be jumping in on the radio and just assuming
the caller knows their voice.
I will go back and put ears on that again.
Caveat: I am sure everyone already realizes how
hard some of the background conversations are
to decipher and that there will most probably
be ( and should be ) REVISIONS. When I say I
am sure about what I hear… I mean it… but
only time will tell if I am right about some of
these things.
I am a life-long musician.
I have perfect pitch… and VERY good ears.
Could be fire camp too. Rather than base.
some words could be cut out from other traffic on other radios like I said it can be hectic when things are going to hell and every body wants the radio.
“I am a life-long musician.
I have perfect pitch… and VERY good ears.”
Heh, why does this NOT surprise me?
When I was on a crew, every member had a number and that was their designator on the radio. I was Silver State 11. Not saying that’s how GM did it maybe. Remember the Granite Mountain 7 call?
So… do you think this guy might have still been
respecting the ( TO, FROM, MESSAGE ) protocol
and HIS ‘designation’ that day was just ‘Five’?
So what he really said was ( note the commas )…
“Granite Mountain, Five, What’s your status right now?”
To: Granite Mountain
From: Five
Message: What’s your status right now?
Would that have made sense to ‘Granite Mountain’?
Would they have know who ‘Five’ was that day?
Could it be… GM5, What is your status right now.
It seems like I saw something to do with Travis Turbyfill that was related to GM R5 or something. Does this sound familiar?
Not to me… but I still think there might
have been people there referring to
them as “Granite Mountain 5”, for
whatever reason.
The caller definitely says the
full “Granite Mountain” phrase and
not a shortened “GM” monicker.
I enhanced that audio even more and
I would definitely have to say the
caller also then says “Five” and
not “Fire”.
So still not sure what to make of
that… but it certainly isn’t that
important. The important part is
that here is proof positive that
‘fire command’ was in direct
contact with Granite Mountain
at 4:16 PM, just before they were
going to drop into the fuel-filled
box canyon…
…and no one even mentions the
‘fire’ itself. Like it wasn’t even there.
If the word is Five then could also be a call number for a person would usually be more numbers but could be short or a local department person with one number. a little confusing with just the number. That’s all I can think of nothing before or after like 5-1 5-0 ? that’s the best I can do. Its a designator for someone or some place.
Still enhancing audio here.
Still trying to find out.
I think it’s pretty important we
try to identify whoever that
is ‘checking on Granite’ at
4:16… wouldn’t you say?
If this guy ( with a possible
Cajun accent? ) was using
a call sign that even
started with just ‘Five’… I
would think others who
are still alive should know
exactly who that was.
Thank you Thank you Thank you, Ellizabeth, Sitta, and Bob Powers!!!!
(I just woke up late, after this early morning’s writing spree, when my alarm didn’t go off, to the sound of the trench being dug in my front yard and it’s easier to do this while drinking coffee than go outside and look).
I think that may be exactly it. Which would mean the four sawyers are with the group at the end of the sequence, which I always believed, but couldn’t prove.
That could mean that the sawyer next to Aschcraft coming up would be Scott Norris (thank you, Scott for your pic you took with your cellphone–which we now know is missing–and may you RIP), and the one or maybe two people behind could be Turbyfill and Carter.
Thank you.
Wow. These comments are all winding up in very strange places!
Sawyers–From the one hiking picture joy took that was posted some where on the hike in. I saw 4 saws over shoulders.
Qualified Sawyers on the crew there were probably more. Swampers could have been certified as well. If when off fires they were working brush clearing jobs they would have run more saws.
Some of the swampers if not all were probably certified as well.
I would say they selected 4 saws for the brush work that day and who would run them before they left the trucks.
Marti– My wife is a real camera buff from the 35mm days but these new cameras are driving her nuts. Also we have cell phones but as you learned earlier I haven’t got into the fancy ones just make my call and shot texting.
>>> Bob Powers on January 22, 2014 at 9:16 am said:
“Wow a lot of work last night guys I’m impressed. The best investigative team I have ever worked with. I can not even figure how you are doing all of that. So Ill just follow along and add any thing you need. You seemed to beat around it but can we absolutely say that the sawyers did not move out but were with the crew till they all moved out? I am still believing that Marsh’s statement of moving off the top was him leaving the meeting spot that Frizby never meet up with him at.”
Somehow I managed to miss your comment here, Bob. And I want to reply, and do it down here so it’s seen.
I think we’re all just putting our various skill sets to work here, and it’s great that we have our various skill sets. I’ve just been working in digital photography for fifteen years now, and so stuff like having to make images, evaluate them, sort thru them, synchronize them when different cameras are used and I’ve had to shift their “capture times” to get them in order (and I have the software to do that), is just what I do.
And I know what it feels like being out there shooting pictures, moving around, fumbling with cameras, trying to get the right angles, zooming in, zooming out. So seeing this all through the eyes/lens of Chris’s photography, (which is really good, by the way), is pretty awesome for me. I can FEEL him, through his photography.
So from the get-go I saw Chris’s camera sitting there, looking at me, while that whole SAIT crew completely missed it. It’s like Chris and his Powershot camera (which I used to use one and I still have it) have been my partners somehow thru this.
It’s like when I asked about the timing for the Brendan pick-up and delivery, where I put it out there, and YOU caught that, and, because you know what it feels like to ride/drive one, could answer my question easily from your own experience. Not to mention your answers to my questions about the helitac crew.
It’s like we’re passing these balls back and forth. Your presence here is really valuable for me, and I can do/think stuff, just because I know how to do it, and other people like you know how to help me, and then Calvin says I’m awesome, and I’m just picking my way thru stuff that I just know how to do.
And I’m seriously clueless about cellphones so I have to go google stuff about them. Or call my my DAUGHTER, whose cellphone is practically an outgrowth of her hand, and ask her questions that she’s probably rolling her eyes wondering, “Mom, how can you be so clueless?”
And I’ve pretty much avoided doing video all along (which is NOT a good thing for a digital photographer these days), so the fact that WTKTT is figuring out how to see and hear and work with all these videos is really awesome to me. And his FAST work with Google Maps/Earth is phenomenal and has been invaluable. I still struggle w/Google Earth, but, with his help, I was able to get the Deployment Site oriented so I could analyze the photographs.
And JOY’s and SONNY’s totally physical relationship to this PLACE that the rest of us are, via our computers, trying to imagine and get a feel for is SO valuable. And ELIZABETH’s long experience with all things legal and investigative, which led to her quick ability to jump on and know how to get the FOIA stuff and pick her way thru all of that, wow, what a blessing for us.
And I’ve really appreciated the past five days without FIGHTING going on here, for a change. It makes it so much easier to FOCUS, and pass those balls back and forth, and collectively get stuff done.
And, yes, I’ve been focusing on the SAWYERS ever since Holly used them to narrate her story. Up until then, I really hadn’t paid that much attention to them. But I know nothing about what it’s like to be a sawyer. I’m like “What?????” It felt to me like what she was saying couldn’t be true, but until we focused on that timeline, which meant it was time for me to dive in and get those photos and videos synchronized QUICKLY, we had no proof that we could put out there to counter her.
And I really appreciate the help that I got from you all, as I had to do my thinking out “loud” here, through that whole process, so we could tighten that timeline up. Neither Calvin nor I could have done it alone, ourselves that quickly.
We still don’t know if some of the sawyers left earlier than the rest of the crew. I noticed CALVIN was focusing on them, so I started working with him. We both caught that their timeline was really important to figure out. He said we needed to id the ones in those pictures and I thought “YUP! We sure do!” And until he pointed Scott Norris out, I had no idea HE was one. So, at this point, among the crew there are six sawyers. And three of them look, under the soot and dirt and sunglasses and helmets, a WHOLE lot alike to me.
At this point we know, that in that huddle on the hill, the sawyers present and accounted for are Dustin Deford, Scott Norris up on the rock above them, Andrew Ashcraft, and Clayton Whitted. As far as I can figure out, Travis Carter and Travis Turbeyfil are not in the pictures, at least as I have been able to see so far. So I don’t know if they headed out early.
And I would agree with you about Marsh’s statement. But I wanted to make it clear that we needed to not pin his location too tightly to the meeting with Frisbee, because, as YOU helped me figure out, that meeting got cancelled no later than 3:30. So that gives Eric a lot more time to be moving around. And as I think we all perceive at this point (unless we’re wrong, which we could be), he was not always that transparent as to his whereabouts. He was always scouting, always on the move, as Joy and Sonny witnessed.
So, I need to go back to bed after this 4:00 low blood sugar wakeup (I’m diabetic) so I can get up in time for the plumber arriving at 9 to begin tearing up my carefully implemented drip system in order to replace my antique in-coming water line.
And thanks for your impossible offer on the plumbing. I’m pretty sure you wouldn’t want to do this two-day job, especially given the winter storm that I can hear coming in to Albuquerque right now.
So this is both a response to your comment and a great big THANK YOU to everybody working together to produce a serious ASAIR, including our gracious host and owner of the land under our campsite, JOHN DOUGHERTY, for all your work and help and caring about the Granite Mountain Hotshots and the many others who lost so much, not to mention the many others who came extremely close to losing much, also, during that fateful wildfire.
Once upon a time I was a writer. I was actually a minister and I had to write a sermon every week. But I decided it was easier to put my thoughts out there in images. This experience has also brought me back to those writing skills I gave up on about ten years ago.
Namaste to you and everybody who reads this long comment.
According to Brendan, they had FOUR sawyers with them. Don’t ask me how I know this. I wouldn’t bet my life on it – it could be four or five – but I would trust that it is no more than that. I’m pretty sure 4 is the right number, but, again, it *could* be up to five.
(I have more information now than I did before, and I have at least a couple more FOIA/FOIL things coming (hopefully soon).)
That’s not true.
If they only had four sawyers, then Travis Turbyfill and Travis Carter (definitely sawyers, and Travis Carter was the Lead Sawyer of the Sawyer Crew) weren’t there that day, which they obviously were. They only had four saws, though.
I mean four SAWS!
They could have had six qualified, regular sawyers, and had two of them switching out as swampers at any given time. I’ve checked the resource order; unfortunately their are no designated sawyers listed.
**Cell Phones**
Did you guys see this text on the Wade Parker phone text PDF?
_____________________________________________________
From: Randy Okon
To: Wilson, Richa -FS
Subject: Re: Cell phones
Date: Thursday, August 08, 2013 9:51:02 AM
I just yesterday received the last of the sets of phone data that is recoverable. This came from ADPS in Phoenix. This gives us three sets of new phone data. These phones are thought to be Carter, Caldwell, and the last one we will just call Casio C781. the two remaining phones that were sent to ADPS by YCSO were to damaged to gather info from .
ROkon
____________________________________________
This correspondence refers to:
Travis Carter phone (this is new)
Robert Caldwell phone (DroidX, took “hunker down” video)
? (Casio C781) whose is this?
? Damaged phone 1
? Damaged phone 2
Previous phone list:
ERIC MARSH – probably had a PFD phone with him
ANDREW ASHCRAFT — cell phone, text reprinted in LA Times
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/zz8dd0tbzyp0y5i/ZePKyWSZ6c
ROBERT CALDWELL — DroidX cell phone — “hunker down” video
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/yk9b5e7l7mj1z91/FmT9wAZkW0
CHRISTOPHER MACKENZIE — cell phone and Canon Powershot (IMG0883-0891)
Canon Powershot https://www.dropbox.com/sh/02ue6bnjp6nazkm/mJJ_cejFm4/Photos%20and%20Video/MacKenzie%20Photos%20Video
Cell Phone https://www.dropbox.com/sh/3jgi0g1y6h0fgi3/DT2kuDEKht
GRANT MCKEE — cell phone (#320, sent to ACTIC), texts and photos reprinted in GQ article (no FOIA photos?)
SCOTT NORRIS — cell phone, text reported in Outside article
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/p78do502dflii7b/fhrel76c3A
WADE PARKER — cell phone, texts and photos reprinted in GQ and LA Times articles
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/npuqepyl3oyopve/ZadUbh_Wou
JESSE STEED — appeared to have iPhone on Doce fire? may have had PFD phone?
Can we add Travis Carter to the list of people with cell phones? And if so, what was on it?
**Cell Phones**
I forgot to include info from Marti’s list:
CLAYTON WHITTED: iPhone, #324 “Found during PFD last combing on July 3. PFD notified YCSO on 7/9 that they had it. (5 days after YCSO had delivered all the rest of the entered-into-evidence personal items to Chino Valley FD for pass-off to families. ACTOS” (N.B.: This is from Marti’s list *before* she recognized the false chain of possession on MacKenzie’s phone.)
Marti also made the following connections:
MacKenzie #326
Caldwell #327
Parker #401
Ashcraft #405
And now we have another one. Scott Norris’s.
That was a reply to Sitta’s post above.
I have a list above, but the links are forcing it to float in moderation purgatory. The post you *do* see is a reply to myself (adding cell phones). The whole thing should make sense once the original post goes through.
Dang.
Once I finally got basically “accepted” into this site, I posted a comment with about four links in it. It took about two hours, I think, for it to get “through.” Your’s still hasn’t shown up. I’m really curious about what you are trying to communicate.
And the above was a reply to Sitta’s comment about his/her cellphone links comment not getting through. So something’s not quite working here.
And the above comment was a reply to the one above it.
Sitta… thanks again! That’s great work!
** General note about posting comments with links in them.
The software we are all talking to is something called WordPress.
Mr. Dougherty apparently has it set to allow just ONE link
per comment before it would default to ‘moderation’.
So if you have multiple links to post and you want them to
show up right away… just ‘Reply’ to yourself a few times
and just put one link in each comment.
BTW: I am still researching Eric Marsh’s actual cell phone
number that was PUBLICLY posted on the National Interagency
Hotshot Crew ( NIHC ) contact list.
Only additional thing I have been able to find out so far
is that the number is registered with Nextel company
at a zip code that does NOT include the location of the
Prescott Fire Department building.
More on that later.
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/02ue6bnjp6nazkm/ok9S0BqutO/Photos%20and%20Video/AZFS%20photos%20videos#lh:null-IMG_20130630_152848_948.jpg
UTV trailer?
Thanks! That shows me what it would look like, so I appreciate that. I still don’t see one anywhere around in the photos of the Blue Ridge crew going in. Or in the photos of their vehicles parked anywhere. Not essential info, but it’s still weird, to me.
So I’m currently still thinking they rode it in and the photos taken of the vehicles going in from off to the right side were taken from it.
Sitta… thanks!
BTW: That photo of the white pickup and UTV trailer seems to
have been taken up in Peeples Valley, near the Model Creek
School Incident Command Post ( ICP ).
The yellow sign on the left says “County road maintenance
stops here” and that’s exactly the sign that is seen on other
photos at the end of Hays Ranch Road… where it meets
Model Creek Road right near the ICP.
Another BTW: I looked closely at various photos of the
Blue Ridge Utility trucks ( 2 of them )… and one of them
seems to have a big CLEAR space in the back… but
I still don’t think there was quite enough room there
to store a full-size 4-wheel ATV. Maybe. Dunno.
UPDATE: calvin has found what appears to be a photo
of the BR trailer for the ATV. It appears to have been
captured in the ‘Tom Story’ ( Arizona Republic ) photo
that Tom took in the Ranch House Restaurant parking lot.
It’s there behind the white pickup with the yellow
horizontal stripe that looks like a NAPA delivery truck.
The trailer is attached to what appears to be a BR
pickup truck. It is black metal… with a drop-down
drive-in gate that is UP in this picture.
The trailer looks just like one of those black metal
lawn and garden trailers you see all the time.
The ATV does not appear to be in it at the time
Tom Story took his photo.
See a longer post down below about this.
**GPS Unit?**
Shoot. I can’t find the link to the YCSO photos dropbox anymore. But if you’ve got them downloaded:
Check out YCSO photo 049, and you can see a couple carabiners in the lower right corner. I think the GPS unit might be down there. In MacKenzie’s IMG_0876 photo, you can see it hanging by a carabiner, and it is pretty small. I think the two grey objects above and to the right of the radio in photos 049 and 050 are actually partially melted water bottles. I could be wrong; this is just my interpretation. But I still think that a carabiner is likely to lead us to the GPS unit.
Also: Marti, Calvin, WTKTT — you guys have been amazing. Please don’t lose heart, Marti. I can’t keep up with all the new videos/photos, as much as I want to. When I *can* get a chunk of time, I will go through your posts and try to follow your steps so I can (hopefully) add something meaningful.
Sitta~
The YCSO photos are not on JD’s Dropbox. They’re on Elizabeth’s Google+ site and they’re now public and here is the link:
https://plus.google.com/photos/115249047962550271237/albums/5962242148909920913
**
** ASM2 KNEW EXACTLY WHERE GRANITE MOUNTAIN WAS
** AT 4:16 PM… AND HE WAS WORRIED.
The following is a previously undiscovered radio transmission that has been
accidentally captured in the background of the following AIR STUDY video …
20130630 161620 VLAT split 1 EP
The titles of these AIR STUDY videos have the exact time/date stamp in them.
YEAR+MONTH+DAY HOUR+MINUTE+SECOND VLAT + DETAILS
This is the video that has the other radio traffic between Eric Marsh, Jesse
Steed, and some still unknown fire command people in it.
It is also the same one that Wildfire today has mistakenly reported having
a communication from Marsh with him saying “I’m at the house where we’re
gonna jump out at”.
That is NOT what Marsh says later in this video.
He simply says “Uh… I’m just checkin’ it out where we’re gonna jump out at.”
The conversation that has never been heard before and was NOT part of
what Wildfire today published is actually at the very beginning of this
same video.
What is actually happening in the background throughout this video is
as follows…
Just before the video starts… someone asked ASM2 ( French or Burfiend )
if he knew where Granite Mountain was… or if he could see them
( at 4:16 ). ASM2 has just called back and said he CAN see them…
(quote) “behind some hills” and (quote) “on the corner”.
As the video STARTS… someone on the ground is simply saying ‘Copy’
to what ASM2 just reported and is then trying to CONFIRM what ASM2
has just reported as the location of Granite Mountain.
ASM2 confirms… but then tells the caller on the ground he does NOT
believe they could possibly be ‘comfortable’ where they are ( he uses
the words “not credible” ) as they keep saying they are.
He then pretty much DEMANDS that the caller on the ground CALL THEM
right away and ASK THEM if ‘Alpha’ ( DIVS A ) is actually WITH them at
that moment, or not ( because he needs/wants to KNOW ).
ASM2 sounds both agitated and worried at the same time as he requests
whoever he is talking to on the ground to CALL them right now (GM) and
verify their status… because he doesn’t seem to like what he is seeing on
the ground ( at 4:16 PM ) and he doesn’t believe them when they keep
repeatedly saying they are “comfortable”.
VIDEO STARTS
+0:08.23
(Unknown): ASM2, Copy that… behind the hills is where you
place Granite Mountain?
+12.726
(ASM2): They’re on the corner just repeatedly saying that they’re
comfortable and that’s not credible. ASK him whether Alpha can
be placed WITH them.
A few seconds later… Someone OTHER than who ASM2 was just
talking to ( someone with what sounds like a Cajun accent ) does
exactly what ASM2 just TOLD them to do.
He calls Granite Mountain directly and asks them to report their STATUS.
NOTE: If the time stamp on the AIR STUDY video can be trusted then it is
now about 4:17 PM, just before the SAIR says they are about to leave the
two-track road and drop into the box canyon at approximately 4:20 PM.
Here is the transcript of that part of the video following the conversation
above… and as reported by Wildfire today… but I believe this transcript is
more correct than what was first published…
+0:40.52
( A pretty heavy accent on this speaker. Almost sounds like Louisiana Cajun? )
( What he says almost sounds like “Granite Montun… wuz yo status rat now?”)
(Unknown): Granite Mountain… What’s your status right now?
( NOTE that even though the caller asked for ‘Granite Mountain’ specifically )
( and not ‘DIVS A’… Eric Marsh responds immediately on behalf of Granite )
( Mountain before Jesse Steed even has a chance to say anything. Jesse )
( only ‘chimes’ in with his own ‘status’ report when Marsh is done speaking. )
+0:54.09 to +1:03.81
Eric Marsh: Well the guys… uh… Granite… is makin’ their way out the exact
escape route from this mornin’… an’ it heads… ah… (pause) SOUTH.
( slight pause ) mid-slope ( cuttin’ over? ) ( cut road? ).
+1:07.18
( Another voice immediately adds to what Marsh said but it is )
( NOT Marsh this time. It really does sound like Jesse Steed now. )
(Jesse Steed?): We’ll be pushin’ our way down into the structures.
+1:10.16 ( Another voice. Very quickly )
Copy that.
+1:21.17
( Unknown speaker ): Ten four. You with Granite Mountain right now?
+1:24.68
( The response to the question appears to come from Eric Marsh, )
( but whoever responds actually doesn’t even answer the question )
( and tell the caller whether he really is ‘with GM’… or not… )
(Eric Marsh?): Uh… just checkin’ it out to see where we’re gonna jump out at.
+1:36.74 through 1:42.00
( 6 second audio transmission. Barely audible This 6 second statement )
( from someone ( not Marsh ) is completely ‘walked on’ by the voices )
( talking in the foreground. First word said seems to be ‘Okay’ but the )
( the rest is really not decipherable. )
(Unknown): Okay… ( 6 more seconds of some kind of statement ).
+1:44.85
( More faint background conversation. Very hard to hear now because )
( the fellas in the foreground are having an active conversation AND )
( there are now cars passing by on the road near them. )
+2:24.71
First of 11 ( Eleven ) still camera shutter clicks heard as the VLAT they are
filming is actually making its drop now.
There is no more background radio traffic while the VLAT is making its
drop and on to the end of the video. The rest of the audio is simply
air traffic and everyone discussing the drop that just took place.
+3:31.04
END OF VIDEO
* ENHANCED AUDIO CLIP OF FIRST EXCHANGE…
Here is the enhanced audio clip of the very first part of this AIR STUDY
video when ASM2 asks them to CALL Granite Mountain and verify
whether ‘Alpha’ ( DIVS A ) is with them, or not.
The rest of the ‘enhanced audio’ will be published as separate videos.
WARNING: As before… the GAIN is set VERY HIGH on this audio clip so
please be careful what your local volume is set to before you play it. You
don’t want to hurt your ears or you equipment. The HIGH GAIN makes it
easier to hear what is in the background but the by-product is that it
makes the overall volume level VERY LOUD.
Here is the audio clip up at YouTube…
The radio exchange repeats FOUR times in a row…
http://youtu.be/Dv_ycHIVecY
Thanks for posting that. Dang, it is *really* tough to make out what they are saying. Definitely a good project for lots of ears.
Yes… this is a tough one ( that’s why it has been missed ).
It took about 7 different noise filterings and amplifications
just to get the clip I posted.
I have other clips here that helped me hear what I am
certain is being said there… but those are not worth
posting. Some of them make the speakers sound like
‘alvin chipmunks’ after many high and low pass noise
filterings… but you can still hear the WORDS.
Spent many, many hours on this one.
I would put good money on my translation, give or
take a few words.
What is obvious here is that the REST of the radio
calls which are more easily heard in this video are
BASED on this one.
ASM2 can see Granite Mountain… “behind the hills there”
and “on the corner ( of the fire? )”… but he is obviously
concerned about at least two thing and that’s why he is
insisting someone on the ground get in touch with
these guys…
1) ASM2 says they keep ‘repeatedly saying they are
comfortable’ down there but he doesn’t believe it
(quote) “not credible”. He has “eyes on the fire”
and is worried about them.
2) ASM2 is trying to do double duty at this moment
and as “Air Attack”… he needs to KNOW if DIVS A
is with the group of men he sees down there… or NOT.
Eric Marsh’s reponse(s) to the command level
queries are not exactly ‘uncommunicative’… but I
would still call them pretty ‘obtuse’. He doesn’t directly
answer questions posed to him and he still doesn’t
give command an EXACT fix on anybody’s location.
So here comes LCES again.
“C” = Communicate clearly and effectively.
Didn’t really happen. We can HEAR that now.
What is also astounding in ALL these exchanges
in this video is that it starts wit ASM2 being worried
that they could not possibly be “comfortable” down
there, based on what HE is seeing from the air.
If the TIME is right on this video ( 4:13 ) then it
was all hitting the fan down there and the fire
had REALLY picked up speed by now.
So it’s astounding that, in the radio conversations
that follow ASM2’s concern and his INSISTENCE
that someone CALL THEM…
…no one mentions the fire.
Eric doesn’t ask… and no one from command
lets him know what it’s doing… or that it has
really picked up speed.
Geez… I wish they had.
I wish these 4:13 direct communications with
both Marsh and Steed had been ALL about
the ‘fire’ and what it was now doing.
They hadn’t left the two-track yet.
There was still time to ‘go back to the black’
or just bounce west on the Congress side
like Tex Gilligan and Joy Collura did that day.
Here’s the Granite Mountain Interagency Hotshot Crew 2012 video link from YouTube. Go to 10:42 to 11:34 for a segment during a nighttime burning operation on the Holloway Fire. One of the GMHS is wearing what very well could be a HELMET CAM while he’s burning. Whomever is doing the burning is shooting video of it, so it’s possible he MAY be using a video camera but more than likely it’s a HELMET CAM.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdcttYOCJEQ
Someone may have already suggested this, But just in case, here’s one more item to search for, request, whatever that MAY have even more June 30th documented evidence.
Very well could be. There’s also a ‘fisheye’ segment while they
are walking along ( in daylight ) on another fire that looks very
much like a helmet cam, too.
Time to recheck all the photos from June 30, 2013.
Last recheck of the photos… calvin found Robert Caldwell’s
Garmin Oregon 450 GPS unit just sitting right there attached
to his right front pack strap… then I found it just lying in the
dirt ( undamaged ) in the deployment site photos.
You never know what another pass at photos like these might
‘tell you’. Can’t do it enough.
By the way… I am assuming that is their OWN burned-up ATV
shown in the video at +12:22?
WTKTT,
Yes, that’s the GMHS burned-up ATV. The result of NOT listening to advice from their peers or supervisors, and thinking they could “get away with it” again.
So I guess I was supposed to be here doing this after all!
Wow! Much better news! The plumber came back, said he made a few calls, was able to adjust his schedule, and they’re gonna start in at 9:00 tomorrow morning!!!!
**DRINK**
Wow. Bad news for me. They’re gonna have to replace the whole line, cuz it’s ancient pipe, it’s gonna take them two days, it’s gonna do serious damage to my drip system, and they can’t start til Monday.
I suppose maybe I shouldn’t have spent all this time since Sunday trying to do all this stuff to get FINISHED with it, and paid earlier attention to my plumbing problem.
**DRINK**
So I made some questions over on Wildfire today asking for there time frames.
but I still believe Marsh was at the meeting spot at 1530 est. give or take. His statement of working off the top I believe means from the top of the mountain at that point, and not some place down below the crew which just would not be on top. So still a hell of a hump down to the ranch thru the canyon flagging as he went if that is to be believed. Took the crew 37 min to get to the deployment spot. This just dose not fit even with the time changes Marti has come up with.
I am being cherry picked by Bill on his thread so do not know if my questions will be posted. I have not attacked any one or been argumenitive but my questions have been direct so be careful over there.
Thank you for trying to communicate with our sibling camp over there. I’ve been reading it but I don’t have the time, brainpower, or wherewithal to do that. All things considered. So a toast to you!!!
I don’t know if you’ve seen my Brendan/Frisbee/Marsh post, but you helped me figure out that the latest Frisbee could have picked up Brendan so that Brendan could get where he got when he got there, was 3:25 PM. So if Eric stayed “up there,” it wouldn’t have for a meeting with Frisbee that had already been cancelled.
OK. Braindead. I just translated the numbers, and yeah, we basically agree.
I have a question. She keep saying the sawyers “left the hand line” at 3:55. What does she mean by that? What’s a “handline”?
I asked Holly to come and answer this yet wildland terminology means hand tools used so if that is the case near the fire edge and lunchspot area.
Marti… I still haven’t ‘caught up’ on the sub-thread about
all the times having to shift because of the iPhone photos…
but if you are wondering EXACTLY how long it might
have taken the Blue Ridge ATV to traverse the distance
from the old-grader to where the GM vehicles were
parked… that has already been determined from the
Blue Ridge GPS tracking video.
See the full text description of that video back on chapter
3 for all the movements and associated times but here’s
the relevant ones that determine the time from the old
grader back to the GM vehicles.
NOTE: The GPS tracker was only updating every 60
seconds so even when the GPS says it might have
taken 3 minutes to move it could very well have only
taken 2 minutes + a few seconds… but the GPS
tracker would still be waiting to update. So any GPS
point-to-point travel times should actually be viewed
as possibly being (minus) 50 to 59 seconds.
When Frisby and Brown first dropped Brendan OFF at
the old-grader… the GPS says they only stayed there
for one minute… then they shot due east ( without
stopping ) to get back to the BR vehicles. The BR
vehicles were parked farther north in the Sesame
area than the GM vehicles.
They made the trip ( in no hurry at all at that time )
from the old-grader to where the BR vehicles were
in about 8 minutes and a few seconds.
They then went scouting to the north for a while, but
after that… they stopped at their BR vehicles again
for a 7 minutes… and THEN they made a ‘short hop’
down in the ATV to where the GM vehicles were
actually parked. That only took 1 or (max) 2 minutes.
So even a ‘not in a hurry’ pace on the ATV direct from
the old-grader to where the GM vehicles were parked
could not have taken more than 10 minutes.
If Frisby really was ‘in a hurry’ to get Brendan back to
those vehicles then you could almost cut that time
in half. The GPS tracking after the burnover actually
does show the ATV covering that same ground in
more like 4 or 5 minutes since they were now ‘on the gas’.
Here are some ‘excepts’ from the complete breakdown
I posted in Chapter 3 about the BR tracking video…
1240
The actual moment they ( Frisby and Brown ) ‘stopped’
near the old-grader location to drop Brendan
McDonough off so he can begin his lookout duties.
They only stop for 1 minute.
1249
They arrive back where the BR vehicles are parked.
They only stop there for 1 minute before beginning a
‘scouting trip’ north from the Sesame area on what is
marked on the visible map as the ‘Jeep Trail’.
1250-1308
Their ‘scouting trip’ north on the ‘Jeep Trail’. At 1308 they
are at the farthest point north that they would travel and
are actually at a point where both the SAIR and the
ADOSH fire progression charts seem to say should
have been ‘inside the fire area’. They may have ‘broken
through’ the actual fireline on the ‘Jeep Trail’ itself
as part of this ‘scouting trip’.
1308-1332
A slow trip back doing more ‘scouting’. They arrive back where BR vehicles are parked at 1332, but only remain
there for 7 minutes.
1339-1342
Short trip south on Sesame Trail to the spot where the
GM vehicles are parked. They remain there with the GM
vehicles until 1355 ( 13 minutes ).
Thx!
That was what I was kinda sorta generally estimating, and Bob, with more experience estimating, helping me, so this really also helps pin it.
Interesting that they may have broken through the fireline to the north. I guess that’s what these guys do.
I have a related but tangential question to throw out there, not to just you, but anybody. And you may not know the answer off the top of your head. And I don’t NEED the question answered, but it’s something I’ve just been wondering a lot about.
I have on again off again been trying to figure out how they got that ATV into there in the first place. I’ve been downloading everything I see related to that now-probably-famous ATV. I hope it has a name, it deserves one.
One of the things I’ve noticed is that, even though in the BR SAIR interview notes someone says they “unloaded” it, or something like that, I have NEVER found a photo/video of them actually carrying or towing it in. It just seems to magically appear. Which originally led me to believe someone drove it in. I can’t believe it was towed or carried in without that appearing somewhere in the various pix/vids of them coming in. To the extent that I’ve said to myself, “what did they do, fold it up and pack it up into the BR Sup truck or a part of a buggy?”
Also some of the BR photos are taken of the traveling-in BR buggies from over to the right of them. Which didn’t make any sense. I found myself wondering, “is it possible these are being taken from the ATV?”
And one photo, “yarnell 098.jpg,” from the McCord folder, shows what I think is the ATV, on the ground, in the midst of the firestorm that was apparently going on at the Shrine area at that most important time.
Everything I have seen so far leads me to believe the ATV was driven/ridden in on its own and maybe back out again. Which is why, when I read in the Interview notes, that they unloaded it, I was surprised.
And I’ve never seen it in the Ranch House Cafe Parking Lot. Did it go there? (I’m just asking this out of curiosity–which is my double-edged-sword vital force–without going back and looking at the GPS video–to see if anybody can, without too much work, tell me.
I think that ATV deserves a medal of honor, along with Brian Frisbee and Trew. Amazing job. So it’s one of my favorite items I have been wondering about.
Any thoughts from anybody regarding how ATV’s are brought in and out?
I’ve never see a photo of it ‘loaded up’,
either… but I’m sure it was just a standard
little trailer for it being towed by one of
the BR utility trucks.
As far as other pictures of it go…
IMG_3954 and IMG_3955 in the Blue
Ridge Hotshot ‘Papich’ folder on Mr.
Dougherty’s dropbox pages both seem
to show the BR ATV.
That ‘Papich’ page is here…
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/dpmmrutwwk4a45b/AzkvtXXind/Papich#/
Also…
The original Michelle Lee ( Arizona
Republic ) photo she tweeted at
4:49 PM from the Ranch House
Restaurant parking lot also seems
to show it pretty clearly. This seems
to be the moment when they were
actually ‘mounting up’ to go search
for Granite Mountain.
https://twitter.com/myhlee/status/351487684440637442/photo/1
BR rolls with a ranger attached to the sup truck pretty much constantly. Usually drop the trailer somewhere so the truck can be more mobile while on incident
Mr. Powers… things are in a state of flux at the moment still due
to those ‘announcements’ made over at Wildfire today.
I have posted the enhanced audio clip that shows no one ever
said “I’m at the house” over at Wildfire today… and a number of
the respected FF people who post there regularly seem to
be agreeing that the quote is NOT…
“Nah… I’m at the house where we’re gonna jump out at”.
What is ACTUALLY said is simply this…
“Uh… just checkin’ it out where we’re gonna jump out at”.
So I believe the whole “Marsh was at the ranch ahead of the crew”
thing is really just one big false alarm.
I also believe that once Maclean/Holly had convinced themselves
that Marsh WAS at the ranch… then all kinds of other scenarios
then seemed possible to them like Marsh taking sawyers with
him and ‘bushwhacking’ an escape route for the crew.
I believe that’s going to turn out to be a ‘false alarm’ as well.
None of that makes any sense.
It STILL doesn’t make any sense that anyone would take the
time to do all that when the very road they were traveling south
on took them straight to their destination with no bushwacking
needed at all.
By the time anyone ‘clearing a trail’ through the canyon got
done… anyone else who has just stayed on the road to
the ranch would have already been there waving hello to
them to them as the ‘bushwhackers’ arrived from the west.
So I’m just not buying it.
That being said… it is perfectly understandable how these
things happen in this kind of investigation. Those videos
are VERY hard to decipher and sometimes you just convince
yourself you are hearing something. I get it.
But that’s where ‘as many ears as possible’ come into play.
Is it possible ( and has always been possible ) that after
Frisby aborted the planned face-to-face and things started
to hit the fan… that Marsh went south to ‘scout that way’
and that’s where he was during the whole ‘discussion
their options’ conversation.
Of course it is. The only things we really know for sure are…
1) Marsh was expecting Frisby to arrive for a face-to-face
at the same time Brendan was abandoning his lookout
post ( whatever TIME that ends up actually being ).
2) There is only ONE place where that face-to-face meeting
could have been planned to take place and that is the exact
same as earlier in the day. There was only ONE way to get
an ATV all the way up to that anchor spot and that’s the
way Frisby came at NOON and was now coming again.
3) Frisby aborted the meeting when he accidentally came
across Brendan hanging around by the old-grader and the
fire was approaching fast.
4) After Frisby cancelled the face-to-face… Marsh was now
free to do something else… but we don’t know what. All we
know is that he was NOT with Steed and the others by the
time Christopher captured the ‘discussing their options’
conversation(s). He was either still ‘working his way off the
top’ and approaching them from the north… or he had
already done that and had already taken off south to
‘scout’ the escape route ( with or without any others ) even
though he and Steed still hadn’t finished ‘discussing their
options’.
As for all the ‘timeframes’ shifting around now because of
what calvin and Marti have been discovering with regards to
the newly released MacKenzie iPhone material…
…I still honestly can’t comment on all that.
I have still not had time to look at those iPhone photos myself
and/or read that whole ‘sub-thread’ and understand what the
actual consternation is.
I will do that at some point.
I, myself, have always wondered how ADOSH could publish
photos of Brendan already back at the vehicles with time
stamps of 1549 when the SAIR AND the ADOSH text
part of their own report BOTH said Brendan didn’t even
leave his lookout post until 1550. Something has always
been ‘not right’ there. Total inconsistency even within just
the ADOSH text and their own supplemental material.
I have been focusing on the newly released videos and things
that are ‘captured’ in the background. Not only were corrections
needed for what Holly/Maclean ‘published’… they have even
missed some things on that same video.
Example… I will document this further soon but just before
the reported fire command / Marsh radio discussions there
seems to be even MORE ‘hard to hear’ ( but not impossible
to hear ) traffic related to Granite Mountain.
What seems to be going on there is that fire command was
actually TRYING to verify where the heck they (GM) were and
even asking ASM2 to help. ( Contrary to anything the
SAIR said ). ASM2 seemed to confirm he ‘thought’ they
were ‘behind those hills over there’ but his lack of being
certain only prompted the next transmission where someone
with what sounds like a slight Cajun accent called them
directly with…
“Granite Mountain… what’s your STATUS right now?”
That’s the start of the Maclean/Holly published transcripts
but here is what I think I am hearing BEFORE that…
+0:08.23 through +0:11.75
( NOTE: Cars are going by at this point in the video so the )
( following is VERY hard to hear but I’m getting close to )
( verifying that this is what is said… )
(Unknown): ASM2, Copy that… behind those hillls is where you place Granite Mountain?
+0:12.96 through +0:21.01
( LOTS of cars suddenly going by so this one is even )
( harder to fully translate but I’m working on it and only
( a few words of the entire sentence seem to be clear )
ASM2?: They’re ( around the corner? )… but… ?? not sure
( something about smoke ) ( something that sounds
like the word ‘followup’ )… etc…
It is only then… a few seconds later… someone decides to
just ASK Granite Mountain where they are and that’s when
we definitely ( and very clearly ) hear this…
“Granite Mountain… what’s your STATUS right now?”
More later…
The new timeframe puts the 0888 video where Marsh says “I knew this was coming” less than five minutes after OPS1 Able says Air Support ASAP at 3:50. It would also mean image 2738 is the last image at that resting area at 3:55
calvin… the ‘new timeframe’ is a good way to refer
to what you and Marti seem to have been hammering
out but apologies… I still really can’t comment on it.
Lots going on here… and my efforts have been
focused on ALL these new videos that have come
online. I am finding all KINDS of relevant background
radio transmissions being captured that no seems
to have even noticed and I think that’s all pretty
important to try and document.
I promise I will take a hard look at ‘the new timeframe’
as soon as I can.
Just keep focusing on the videos. You’re doing amazing work.
I think we have a pretty good GENERAL timeline of the episode where GMHS gather around the “considering their options” conversation, and Brendan’s and Eric’s general whereabouts.
Don’t worry about that stuff, we can do the work on synching with what you are saying.
I think what you are doing is really really important, trying to document the conversations going on.
One question I have. You say “fire command.” I’m assuming you mean by that OPS1 and/or OPS2. If I’m not correct in that, please help me. If I am don’t take time to respond.
I’ve been doing a little side research regarding what may be that cajun-ish voice you may be hearing. It has to do with Bravo 33. They flew in to be a lead plane, but not an Air Attack. Then the role of Air Attack was dumped on them without sufficient preparation.
The pilot was a man named French, who has recently been lauded for his performance. His superior, I think, who is flying with him, is John Burfiend, a highly regarded Regional (SW) Aviation Safety Manager. They’re both related to the Gila Area. They flew in, I think, from Silver City.
Something in me said, Burfiend, when you said “cajun.” I don’t know any more about his cultural background, but I sensed a possible name (French-American) connection between the two. For whatever it is worth, maybe that cajun-ish voice is Burfiend.
Everything I have read coming from Bravo 33 indicates a lot of frustration with the whole situation. They flew in from, I think, Silver City, NM, and were made to replace Bravo 3 with a ten-minute briefing. Which they didn’t expect.
Then, ASM1 (the great one who decided to dump retardant on the GMHS backfire test), threw them the job of doing ASM2 (Air Attack), with NO briefing. So here they were with all this fire and chaos and they were being expected to take charge of all of it by air. Without even remotely enough information to do so.
According to their interview, they had no idea where anybody was. They didn’t know Blue Ridge was even on the fire, and they had no idea Granite Mountain was, either, until they heard over their radio they were deploying. They didn’t know where anything or anybody was.
So your listening in makes me wonder, is it possible that that Cajuny voice is that of Burfiend? The SW Regional Aviations Safety Manager, flying with French on Bravo 33.
I believe Burfiend is the one ( in this
same video ) that is saying…
“Operations, Bravo 33, on air to ground”
just before Eric Marsh is heard.
Someone at Wildfire today even
said that specific ‘call out’ was him.
That would make the ‘Granite Mountain… what’s your status?’
query ( with the accent ) someone
else… and pretty sure that query
is coming from the ground because of the conversation I have now discovered just BEFORE the transcript published on Widlfire today. More on that very soon.
BTW: When listening to these videos I’m tired of trying to list all the alphabet soup possibilities of who might be speaking so sometimes ( when it’s an unknown speaker asking GM or Marsh a question ) I am just using the generic ‘fire command’…. Like an OPSx or an ICx or a DIVSx or an
SPGSx or an FBANx or an ATGSx or… yada, yada, yada.
Generic = Fire command.
There are so many different voices
showing up now in these background radio captures that is almost sounds like everyone had their shot at talking to Eric Marsh that day.
Copy. Thanks. Makes sense.
And LOL on the Letters/Titles!
I took some “time out” last week to read the Dispatch Logs. I was, like, “Can somebody please provide a translation???”
Yes WTKTT I have been following your postings close and adjusting the time frames. I believe for Marsh to have got to the ranch at 1613 he would have had to leave the top of the mountain at least 1445 to make a 11/2 + mile trek to the ranch thru the canyon and all the brush and that would still be moving pretty good. would also abandon the meeting before Frizby ever left to meet with him so still makes no science. The new evidence is based only on the sawyer Picture’s and the call about the house associated with marsh, they have not posted any time frame evidence from Pictures etc. so I agree with you they are reaching a conclusion with out much if any factual evidence. It just ant so Holli it just ant so.
I sure wish someone would get more interested
in what happened to Robert Caldwell’s Garmin
Oregon 450 handheld GPS tracker.
Garmin GPS tracking units take their time stamps
directly from the satellites that are supplying the
actual GPS location data. The time information
is in the packets themselves that are coming
FROM the satellites.
Won’t tell us where Mash was all day… but it
most certainly would solve every single question
about where Caldwell and crew were every
single moment that day… and EXACTLY WHEN.
No ‘photo metadata’ discrepancies could override
THAT time information. No way.
Excuse me… it’s “Marsh”… “Eric Marsh”…
not ‘Mash’.
WTKTT—Your slipping take a break and a couple of deep breaths.
If you want a laugh go over to WFTD and on the big threat check what Bill said about me none of which is true but he was unprofessional to print it after we talked about it on E-mail. I made a joke he took as a threat and my attack on one of his inputters was full sail and it was tong and cheek. Think Ill stay here for awhile where questions aren’t personnel attacks.
Yes… I saw your ‘glad you found a place to land’ comment before it was DELETED. Rest assured… you aren’t the only one getting comments deleted. Only about half of what I have posted over there has actually ‘appeared’. It’s really kind of weird… sometimes things say ‘in moderation’ and they never appear at all… sometimes it says things are ‘in
moderation’… then they suddenly appear as ‘accepted’ for an hour or so… and THEN Mr. Gabbert deletes them. He’s trying to carefully tailor what appears. That’s OK. It’s his nickel over there. I’d rather be posting results here.
You never attack any one so that’s interesting. And your posting and video info is helping a lot. Thanks to you again.
I completely agree.
And now, it appears, we have another missing cellphone, that of Scott Norris.
Which is not, via the Body Map, #320.
are we sure that GPS was even on. Can’t tell you how many times we forget/don’t turn on GPS receivers. Im really surprised that Trew had his on the whole time
REPLY TO:
WantsToKnowTheTruth
on January 22, 2014 at 5:31 pm said:
By the time anyone ‘clearing a trail’ through the canyon got
done… anyone else who has just stayed on the road to
the ranch would have already been there waving hello to
them to them as the ‘bushwhackers’ arrived from the west.
So I’m just not buying it.
I KNOW THAT AREA BEFORE THE FIRE AND YES IT DOES GO ALL THE WAY TO THE CATTLE POND AREA NEAR THE HELM’S PLACE YET BEFORE THE FIRE THE VEGETATION AND RIDGE LOOKS LIKE IT DEAD ENDS RIGHT THERE IF YOU NEVER BEEN THERE BEFORE. IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT JUST HEADS TO A STEEPER TO THE TOP LEVELING OFF AND DUE TO THE PATTERN OF VEGETATION IT SEEMS THE PATH FADES OFF THERE. PLUS IT WAS 107 DEGREES BETWEEN 2-3PM AND THAT AWFUL STACK OF SMOKE WE HAD BEEN WATCHING SO ADD THOSE FACTORS TO THE AREA AND THAT STEEP PATH NOT KNOWING WHERE IT GOES TO VERSUS LOOKING RIGHT AT THE SAFETY ZONE CLEAR AS DAY—THAT PART I GET WHY THEY CHOOSE NOT GOING ANY FURTHER BECAUSE THEY DID NOT KNOW THE AREA TOO WELL.
sonny and joy…
Ongoing thanks!
Yes… its’ all about ‘decision making’, isn’t it?
I still, personally, don’t believe either Marsh or
Steed had any idea the road/trail DID eventually
wind up down there near the ranch… but
they should have. We have now discovered that
Robert Caldwell himself was carrying a Garmin
Oregon 450 GPS unit that day… ALL day.
Forget about the 6+ ( up to 8 now? ) smartphones
that they had with them that day complete with
Browsers, Google maps, and a good carrier signal
out there… if they didn’t even consult with
Caldwell’s Oregon 450 GPS unit with full maps
display as they were considering their options that
afternoon…
…then I really don’t know what to say anymore.
First….. I am basing my timeline off Mackenzie cell phone, not the camera.
I believe Marti is correct to use the Caldwell video and the Mackenzie photos of Caldwell videoing as THE anchor. A time of 1550
I now believe there is evidence the Mackenzie 0888-0891 images/videos were taken in the time between Mackenzie cell phone images 2736(3:51.58) and 2737 (3:55.20) This is a period of over 3 minutes. ENOUGH time to use/adjust the camera to capture 0888-0891
THE SAFETY GLASSES. At the very beginning of video 0888, Dustin Deford can be seen doing “something” with his gloves attached to his right shoulder strap of the backpack. He is actually storing the safety glasses in his glove! Note how he gives them a gentle push down into the glove
Image 2735 (3:50.49) Dustin Deford has his safety glasses in his hand
Image 2736 (3:51.58) I am not 100%, but I still do not see glasses in glove, hand not visible
Three minutes and 52 seconds with no pictures on cell phone during this time.
Mackenzie camera video 0888 and 0991 (after 3:52 and before 3:55.20) Note the position of safety glasses beginning at the start 0888 through 0891
Image 2737 (3:55.20) Deford now has glasses in glove.
So my theory is the glasses were put inside the gloves between cell phone image 2736 and 2737.
There is more but this is a start…. I too am braindead
Hate to say this but the timeframe (at least on my computer) of that MacKenzie sequence is only 38 seconds. Plus the ten seconds included in the second video. You need to go back and look at the stamps again. He was chunking away really fast.
My bad. I see what you’re doing.
Yes there’s that nine minute space in my current timeline after video 2. So yes, it works. Yay!
The part I’m having a little bit of a hard time with in that sequence is:
Chris comes up after shooting with the camera. Switches to the iphone for one photo. Switches back to the camera for the 38+10 second sequence, then switches back to the iphone for the rest of the shoot. But maybe. (I’m not even looking at the pictures, I’m just trying to conjecture the process, being a photographer and all.
It’s hard for me to imagine deciding to do that. But, this may tie in with the on again off again switching of QuickTime, which is a video app. Which has been really bugging me.
Which could mean, he may have been wanting to shoot video, and that wasn’t working, for some reason. And he wanted to do that with the iphone, because he could, at least eventually, turn on it’s GPS, which he finally did. I still can’t quite imagine why he just didn’t shoot that 38 second Powershot sequence as video. But that answer, we, for sure, will never know.
Marti, what does…..”Chris comes up after shooting with the camera” mean? Have you seen Holly Neil’s latest comment at Wildfire?
No I haven’t seen her comment. I mean that because of the wide focal length with which he’s shooting those pictures of Ashcraft et all down below, I really think he has to be down below with them. And coming up with them
Do you see the grader or Mcdonough’s lookout spot in image 0885, 0886, or 0887?
I appreciate you taking the time to look at this issue.
My sequence of photos is…..
2735,2736, 0888-0891, 2737, 2738
Try to leave 0885-0887 out of the sequence (for now)
I don’t see either. But here’s the clue, like I said, Brendan was down on the bulldozed road just before getting into town, at 3:39 (i.e. listening to this conversation). I sat and conjured up a a bit last night what that might mean for when Frisbee must have picked up Brendan. I guessed it would take 15 to 20 minutes to get him down to the truck and get him from there down where he may been at 3:40. This is a bit sloppy atm, bcuz I’m doing this inbetween attempts to get a plumber here. That would fit with the visuals here that look like the fire is way below the grader and the lookout point.
And it also means Eric may well have not been up at the “meeting with Frisbee” place by this time.
Ok back to trying to get a plumber here. I have had no running water since Sunday.
Marti– Where the trucks were from Brendon was only about 11/2 to 2 miles not far for an ATV at 20 or 25 MPH Probably less than 5 min. I ride them a lot in some very ruff country around here. and they were in the flats so would make good time.
Thx! That’s what I would have next gone fishing for.
Mr. Powers, I do not think Eric’s truck was parked with the crew carriers.
Joy/Tex…. Do you know if Eric’s truck was parked by the BR supt truck?
Or do you know where it was parked. Thanks
yes. The crew was parked away from the other vehicles as you can see on my photos. Let me see if JD posted them so you can see on his page versus getting a private link to view. I just told Sonny soon you all will see me spend morning to dark just reviewing my original photos to see if they match the google+ and zazzle and whatever photo never made it I will make a public link as well as any photo significant to share that day to you all like the mystery man one and etc. It is not an easy task because I have been exploring Arizona and less at home and I have to make an appt. to retrieve the originals because they are safe with someone I trust so it is also hard because my storage unit for some reason will not search by date so I have to scroll and just look.
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/eedzcsi1dpeczak/zo_QE8YnyK/Reduced%20Photo%20Images
the vehicle photo numbers are #38/366, #33, #26, #22, #24 and if anyone knows what Marsh’s truck looked like #21 is my number one question who it belongs to because if it was Marsh it helps me confirm thoughts in regards to the shortcut spots in that area..#81 is a photo of a man on top of the mountain; Marsh or mystery man? #91 shows Marsh tying ribbons
#130 is mystery man photo
Also sorry I am not close could have had you fixed up I am not a bad plumber.
So thx, to Bob. 5 minutes to the trucks, 5 minutes to the stopping place, five minutes to the last pic at the truck, I think, that means 15 minutes give or take a few.
Same conclusion.
can you post link- we can answer you here- we know his spot. I went to JD’s Brendan photos and did not see those #s mentioned so are you at the courier? let me go see.
calvin
on January 22, 2014 at 1:45 pm said:
Do you see the grader or Mcdonough’s lookout spot in image 0885,
0886, or 0887?
I appreciate you taking the time to look at this issue. YES BUT YES TO 0884 PHOTO THE OLD GRADER SPOT/BRENDAN’S LOOKOUT IS REALLY VISIBLE THERE
My sequence of photos is…..
2735,2736, 0888-0891, 2737, 2738
Try to leave 0885-0887 out of the sequence (for now)
Thanks Joy or Sonny.
I think (correct me if I am wrong) I see the grader in pictures 0883-0884, 0888-0891
However, I am not sure about 0885, 0886, 0887. Can you help?
img 890 the grader is next to the farthest seen GMHS there is a bush to the right of him and than a brown dirt circle which has the grader on it, so hard to see those photos and img 889 the same guy/same thing, right above the farthest sawyer/bush in img 887, right of the GMHS’s black helmet who’s helmet is placed on the fire so you know which GMHS, so if you got it on those pics than the rest you can now follow the spot. I guess I have a hard time viewing this because we know that fire and how it took a whole mountain over in 14 minutes and do you see that fire in the photos—well Donut was north of the old grader right in between that fierce fire and the old grader—to us, we always felt he was in more danger than the 19 men. Look at how close he was and how blessed he was that Frisby picked him up. Man, watching that and reflecting back that man either is drinking his life away or he over time is going to realize how important he is to the 19 men that already passed on and start speaking. Is he married or with someone? I know he has a kid but wonder if he has a significant other?
Marti… see above where I admit that you are right
and that I am ‘totally not seeing the problem’ and
its because I haven’t been following this particular
‘sub-thread’ about the MacKenzie iPhone stuff.
I’ve had a lot on my plate locally AND I’ve been
concentrating on filtering and cleaning background
audio clips from recently released video. I
thought it was VERY important to get on that
while you and calving hashed out the iPhone
consternation.
So until I actually get ‘up to speed’ on this entire
sub-thread… nothing I can say can be taken
as good advice…
Except… perhaps… with regards to what appears
to be part of the thing you and calving are working
on regarding usage of two devices at once?
I think that’s what I say flying by, anyway.
Have you considered that MacKenzie might have
just handed his iPhone to some other Hotshot
and asked HIM to take some pictures with it
at the same time he was using his Canon?
Maybe that also explains what appears to be
evidence of someone having trouble using
the iPhone… because it wasn’t Christopher
and they were just pushing the wrong buttons…
or something?
Again… I’m not fully up to speed on even the whole
consternation over the iPhone stuff so until I
think I am… take any comment I may have about
what you and calving are working on with
every grain of salt possible.
Whoops… typos above.
It’s ‘calvin’… not ‘calving’.
lol, calving
Actually… I think I may have
accidentally invented a new
VERB. Dictionary definition
would be…
calving: Finding details in
evidence that no one else
has been able to.
I can go with it!
I think it’s possible. I don’t know if it’s probable. Things seem to be being taken from the same spot and neither of them shot each other. As far as I know.
I really have to pull back. I, too, have some real life issues bearing heavily down upon me.
No problem. That’s why I’m here. I know cameras, and digital photography. I”m not so good on video or smartphones. So thx for doing the video stuff!!!
And the only reason I was able to figure out, sort of, the QuickTime thing, was by doing some serious googling about it. I had no idea there was even QuickTime for iphones!!!
And I don’t know that it’s critical solve that one now.
What I think is critical here atm is the overall timeline of this scene, the locations of the sawyers, and the possible implications of the fact that by this time, Eric was most likely NOT hanging around way up above waiting for a meeting with Frisbee that had been cancelled around 3:25 PM.
Wow a lot of work last night guys I’m impressed. The best investigative team I have ever worked with. I can not even figure how you are doing all of that. So Ill just follow along and add any thing you need. You seemed to beat around it but can we absolutely say that the sawyers did not move out but were with the crew till they all moved out? I am still believing that Marsh’s statement of moving off the top was him leaving the meeting spot that Frizby never meet up with him at.
OK, so I’ve pushed (via experimenting and shifting the sequence capture times in Lightroom) the MacKenzie Powershot image group to a place where they begin to make sense, I think, in relationship to the iphone pix, using the two iphone photos of Caldwell shooting his video from 3:50:06 to 3:50:19 as an anchor. There are some surprises in this.
0885 Ashcraft sitting next to Wade on the boulders down below taking a picture. 3:30:42
0886 Wade walking from there. 3:30:54
0887 Ashcraft et al walking. 3:31:00
0888 First Video. 3:40:07
0889 3:40:28
0890 3:40:36
0891 Second video. 3:40:46
2733 Chris starts using his iphone. Caldwell taking his cellphone out of his pocket. 3:49:55
2734 Caldwell starting his video. 3:50:06
2735 Caldwell still shooting his video. 3:50:19
2736 3:51:58
2737 3:55:20
2738 Chris’s final photo. 3:55:31
Note. There is no way to get these to sync with both Caldwell’s video and Wade’s photo at the times they are publicized. I’m going with Caldwell’s video. Wade could have taken that photo earlier than he texted it. I’m prioritizing the timing based on Caldwell’s video.
Also, this means that Video 1 and Video 2, including parts of the “options conversation” are a bit earlier than I think we’ve been considering.
Also, this means that this whole scenario, as captured by Chris, is over before 4:00 PM.
I don’t know if this changes what “we” have been putting together as the timeline between Chris’s videos and Caldwell’s video.
Namaste!
PS So in order to do this, for example I pushed 0885 back from 3:52:07 to 3:30:43. At this point I’m too sleepy and brain-dead to figure out and write how many minutes and seconds that ends up being.
It’s about 21 minutes I think. Please correct me if I’m wrong.
You are awesome! I am working to come to a conclusion using the information you provided.
PS, did you notice the pair of safety glasses in Deford’s right hand?
WTKKT is still trying to tell me the camera’s right.
I’m still trying to get him to see that, if that’ the case, we have clones of Andrew and Wade walking around.
Marti… see above. You were right.
I am totally not grasping what you
and calvin have been hashing out
here because I have had other things
that needed doing here.
So ignore my comments above about
the times on the MacKenzie photos
seeming to be totally accurate.
They are to me… because I still
haven’t really even looked at the
recently released iPhone photos.
I will do that when I get a chance,
I will go back and read this entire
sub-thread and try to get ‘up to
speed’ on everything you are
saying… but not today.
I’m not really awesome. It’s just that when I see something like this happening in photography I have to fix it.
I think it’s a genetically transmitted malfunction. My dad was, and my daughter is, also, equally OCD, just in different ways.
Regarding the safety glasses, yes I see them.
What are they saying to you?
Actually, sometimes I clone people, too. It just requires a different kind of digital engineering:
http://tinyurl.com/n6o99cp
great work Marti
Thank you!!
I am so braindead right now. I’m just siting here laughing. I went to bed at 3-ish, woke up at 6 with low blood sugar, and and now I’m going back to bed. So I wake up later and call the plumber to come fix my main water line which broke Sunday morning.
Cheers!
WTKKT et al
The furthest you can “push” the Powershot timestamp “forward” in time is eight minutes. That puts the beginning of the second video at 3:48:46, before Chris then switches to his iphone and shoots Caldwell pulling his cellphone out of his pocket at 3:49:55, before he’s shown shooting his video at 3:50:06.
There’s no way he’s shooting with the camera and the cellphone at the same time, given the time between shots. Plus as soon as he starts using his cellphone he’s having trouble figuring out what to do with QuickTime and also deciding to turn on his GPS. It’s just not feasible.
And one more thing (i’m so trying to wrap this up).
Brendan
I only downloaded one of his pics from where he’s w/the Sup truck out on the bulldozed road, but it’s the last one and it’s stamped 3:49.
The three pics he shot in town are all around 4:02.
So this is the bow on the wrapping.
This may have some influence on how we’re timelining Eric being up above waiting for the meeting with Frisbee.
Have you saw the Scott Norris photo taken at 3:49?
No. Where’s that????
OMG That one! I had forgotten about it.
I hadn’t downloaded it because I thought it was earlier than what we’re looking at because the text message says 2:16 PM for the photo.
That is Ashcraft’s photo at 216
Where are you getting that 3:49 timestamp? Cuz I’m not seeing any timestamp on it at all.
OK I finally found it. Along with Wade Parkers that he sent his dad at 4:04. Unfortunately it’s embedded in a PDF so I don’t know how to down load it.
So what is it saying to you?
Oops. I”m looking at the wrong picture. OK so what picture are you looking at?
Its under the ADOSH supporting photos, maps. It is here at IM
Where here? Pretty please???
Ok Gotcha.
BTW… I believe Scott Norris is standing ( to the left of Parker and facing opposite) in cell phone image 2735 and 2736 as well as movie 0888. Note image 2737 where he has now moved and is crouching.
Also. I believe Scott Norris was a sawyer, and the HS (Norris) in question has on the same pad over his right shoulder as Ashcraft
You mean the one up on the rock with the sawyer chaps?
Yep, The one who looks like he could be “on the phone” in image 2735, and is still fooling with something in image 2736
If that’s Scott, he’s a sawyer, which I was unaware of, that means two things.
We so far have six sawyers.
And we have one more missing cell phone, and it’s not #320.
And that would have been the perfect place for him to have taken that photo.
So we have identified, “in the huddle, so far, sawyers Ashcraft, Deford, Norris, and Witted. Carter and Turbyfill we have not. And I was thinking either Carter or Turbyfil was walking alongside Ashcraft. Still uncertain.
Does anybody have a link to Robert Caldwell’s video? I just googled it and didn’t find it.
Thanks in advance.
Here is the original ‘enhanced audio’ from Caldwell’s video
that Elizabeth posted to YouTube on January 1.
This is the video with the (irrelevant) bunny picture that she used
just so she could get the audio uploaded to YouTube.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=87nLmrNE7q0
And just for clarity’s sake ( and the fact that this is a new
chapter of the ongoing discussion )… here is the exact
transcript from Caldwell’s 3:50 PM video once again…
Eric Marsh (DIVS A): Yea… I’m tryin’ to work my way off the top.
Todd Abel ( OPS1 ): Okay… I copy… ah… just keep me updated…
ah… ya know… you guys hunker and be safe and then… ah…
we’ll get some air support down there ASAP.
If you are just interested in the audio… then the link above is
the way to go since… in the actual Caldwell video… the
captured radio conversation is very faint… and we know
WHY know. It’s ‘faint’ in the background of Caldwell’s actual
video because we KNOW he had ‘stepped down’ on the
rocks farther forward than anyone else at that ‘resting spot’
and the radio he is capturing was some 20 feet BEHIND him.
Standby for a link to the full video…
And here is the full Robert Caldwell ‘resting spot’ video
as released by the SAIT…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R46Y8LKUcNk
The key to pin-pointing exactly where Robert Caldwell
was standing when he took this video is that now
infamous ‘cactus’ plant which is on the left side of
the frame when the video starts.
It ( the cactus ) is EXACTLY where it is supposed to be
for us to know, fer sure, that the other pictures taken of
Caldwell ‘down farther on the rocks’ and shooting
some video do, in fact, capture him shooting THIS video.
NOTE: This is another one of Elizabeth’s YouTube links.
I thought this video was part of John Dougherty’s
original ‘Supporting documents’ dropbox but all of
a sudden I don’t see a link to it there anymore.
Thank you!!! I’m gonna try synching the Powershot stuff to that and see what happens.
Believe it or not, I don’t know how to download a video from YouTube. Do you?
http://www.clipconverter.cc/
Works like a champ.
Thank you!
Actually, I need that. The iphone shows Caldwell starting that at 3:50. So that means the iphone is right. I’m not sure where to go next, but that definitely gives me a reliable anchor.
It means that if the camera and the iphone are at odds, which they very much are, the iphone is correct. So, next we have to figure out how far off, and which direction the camera is. Which means that even if the camera is capturing Wade Parker using his cellphone to take pictures at 4:01, we can’t rely on that to mean the camera is correct.
I still believe the reason you can trust
ALL of the times on Christopher’s
Canon Powershot is because of that
photo he took of one of the times
that morning ( 11:45 AM ) when Rory
Collins dropped retardant right on
the indirect work they were doing.
One of those 2 drops was at exactly
11:45 AM and is ‘documented’ all
over the place. The photo Christopher
took of that moment ( with the
retardant having just been dropped
and ‘floating down’ ) is hard-stamped
in the metadata for his Canon
Powershot photo at exactly 11:45 AM.
That’s a total ‘match’ between a
camera metadata time and a known
external event.
Nope, there’s no way to put these pictures together assuming the Powershot is accurate.
But there may be still enough wiggle room to correlate these. A picture of an air retardant drop has a bit more time-space around it than two pictures of a video.
I had to push back the Powershot times about 21 minutes to get it to sync to Caldwell’s video. What do you thing is more accurate, the time you and Elizabeth are telling me about Caldwell’s video, or the time you are telling me here about the photo of the drop?
Ciao
I’m asking because, if we could get an accurate timestamp on that, it might really help us figure out how to make sense of the timeline of Chris’s camera + iphone, which is still not making sense. And thus pin the time of the parts of the “options conversation” he captured.
The exact ‘time’ of the ‘options’ conversations he
captured is already known ( if you trust the clock on
his Canon Powershot… which there doesn’t seem to
be any reason not to. See above rergarding his 11:45
AM retardant drop photo timestamp matching EXACTLY
the time of that known external event ).
The THM first-frame files from BOTH of Christopher’s
videos are publicly available up on John’s site. It has
the metadata in it for BOTH of the videos.
Here’s a full reproduction of the posting I made about
all of that from the Chapter 3 thread….
**
** UPDATE ON THE MACKENZIE VIDEO(S)
** SOMETIMES WHAT SEEMS IMPOSSIBLE IS
** ACTUALLY TRUE
I forgot something about the Canon Powershots.
As it turns out… they DO only write a minimal amount of
metadata into their Apple Quicktime MOV (movie) files on the
device itself… but Canons also do something else.
When you take your finger off the shutter and stop filming the
movie… the Canon automatically creates a ‘Thumbnail’
image ( with a file extension of .THM ) from the first frame of
your movie.
The Canon then also secretly copies LOTS of standard
EXIF metadata related to the movie into that .THM file.
The Canon keeps those .THM files as separate files from
the original Apple Quicktime .MOV file… but it also keeps
them ‘in-sync’ on the device.
If you look at the bottom of Mr. Dougherty’s dropbox page for
Christopher MacKenzie’s photos and videos that he received
from the SAIT investigation you will see that he very diligently
copied EVERYTHING he had in that ‘MacKenzie’ directory
on the CD he got up to the dropbox page.
So there are the original ‘first-movie-frame’ THM files
from Christopher’s Canon Powershot.
They are named exactly the same as the original movie
files only with a .THM extension…
MVI_0888.THM
MVI_0891.THM
A ‘THM’ ( Thumbnail ) format file is really just a JPEG image
in disguise… so you can actually then just run any standard
JPEG EXIF data extractor on those files.
So that’s what I did…and there are no mysteries anymore
about these MacKenzie movie clips.
The exact timestamp the movies were made is, in fact,
inside that first-frame THM EXIF information for each movie.
You still don’t get a ‘duration’ value for the movies… but you
get something just as accurate. For a movie… the Canon
stores the total number of individual frames recorded for
each movie along with the exact ‘frame rate’ for that movie.
So it’s then easy to calculate the ORIGINAL LENGTH
of the movie itself.
As IMPOSSIBLE as it might have seemed at first for two
separate movies made manually to be exactly within
3/100 ths of one second in duration… that appears to be
what actually happened out on that ridge on June 30, 2013.
Here is the actual ( additional ) THM-EXIF metadata for
both of Christopher MacKenzie’s movies…
* MACKENZIE VIDEO 1 – MVI_0888.THM
THM-EXIF Create Date: June 30, 2013, 4:01:31 PM
THM-EXIF Canon Image Size: 1280×720 Movie
THM-EXIF Quality: Normal Movie
THM-EXIF Continuous Drive: Movie
THM-EXIF Record Mode: Video
THM-EXIF Canon Image Type: MVI:PowerShot SD1400 IS Movie
THM-EXIF Canon Model ID: PowerShot SD1400 IS / IXUS 130
THM-EXIF Camera Temperature: 34 C ( 93 F )
THM-EXIF Audio Bitrate: 768 kbps
THM-EXIF Audio Sample Rate: 48,000
THM-EXIF Audio Channels: 1
THM-EXIF Video Codec: avc1
THM-EXIF Image Unique ID: 2248e2774be0ab5a80114ba41729
THM-EXIF Drive Mode: Continuous Shooting
THM-EXIF Frame Rate: 29.97
THM-EXIF Frame Rate: 30
THM-EXIF Frame Count: 275
Duration: ( Frame Count 275 / Frame Rate 29.97 ): 9.2436 sec
* MACKENZIE VIDEO 2
THM-EXIF Create Date: June 30, 2013, 4:02:10 PM
THM-EXIF Canon Image Size: 1280×720 Movie
THM-EXIF Quality: Normal Movie
THM-EXIF Continuous Drive: Movie
THM-EXIF Record Mode: Video
THM-EXIF Canon Image Type: MVI:PowerShot SD1400 IS Movie
THM-EXIF Canon Model ID: PowerShot SD1400 IS / IXUS 130
THM-EXIF Camera Temperature: 34 C ( 93 F )
THM-EXIF Audio Bitrate: 768 kbps
THM-EXIF Audio Sample Rate: 48,000
THM-EXIF Audio Channels: 1
THM-EXIF Video Codec: avc1
THM-EXIF Image Unique ID: 274830764be0ab5a80114ba41729
THM-EXIF Drive Mode: Continuous Shooting
THM-EXIF Frame Rate: 29.97
THM-EXIF Frame Rate: 30
THM-EXIF Frame Count: 274
Duration ( Frame Count 274 / Frame Rate 29.97 ): 9.1424 sec
** SUMMARY
So even though there appears to be a slight discrepancy in
the length of MacKenzie’s first video and it SHOULD
actually be about a tenth of a second longer than what
we are actually seeing/hearing… that is inconsequential
and can be written off to the imperfections of video
player software.
The computed duration of the second video matches
exactly other reported lengths and the EXIF data in
the .MOV file itself.
It is safe to say now ( finally ) that it appears these
Christopher MacKenzie video clips have NOT been
‘edited’ or ‘cropped’ since they were copied directly off
his Canon and we have always been seeing ( and hearing )
all there is to see / hear.
So now that we finally know the exact SECONDS intervals
between Christopher’s still photos AND his movies that he
shot at the ’4:00 PM’ resting location… we can also say for
sure (now) that this is exactly what happened…
1600:xx – 1601:xx – They arrive at this 1600 location after
hiking for just a bit from the previous 1552 location.
1601:31 – MacKenzie 110-0888 – First VIDEO capturing
Marsh saying “I could just feel it, ya know”.
Duration: 9.24 sec.
1601:52 – MacKenzie 110-0889 – First still photo at this
new location 12 seconds after shooting the first video.
1602:00 – MacKenzie 110-0890 – Second still photo
here just 8 seconds later.
1602:10 – MacKenzie 110-0891 – Second VIDEO,
10 seconds later, capturing Steed saying “I Copy…
and it’s almost made it to that two-track road we walked
in on”. Duration: 9.14 sec.
( Only 2-3 more minutes of unknown activity/conversations )
1604:xx – 16:05:xx – They all leave this location and head south for the box canyon
This also means for certain that the TOTAL time (
and possible maximum total missing conversation
length ) BETWEEN the two videos is exactly 30 seconds…
since the first video ended at 1601:40 and the second
one actually started at 16:02:10.
You are totally not getting what I’m saying.
Which I’ve several times in various ways above.
Here’s one version of what I’m saying:
“There are three photos of hotshots taking pictures. 2734, 2735, and 0885.
Let me start with 0885, cuz it’s easier. Taken at 3:52:07. That’s Andrew Ashcroft, id’d by the white bracelet on his right wrist. (see story I wrote about that in Chapter 3.) And, now that you’ve described it, and I checked out the Courier pictures, I agree that’s Wade Parker on the rock next to him. (Assuming the Courier got it right).
The problem is, how could either of them be in 2736 (3:51:58), the first cellphone picture showing the group up above (quite a distance up above, I would add) and in 0085 (3:52:07) at essentially the same time?
….do you understand that what I said before and am saying now is that Ashcraft and Parker (if the Courier and we have him id’d corrrectly) can’t be among the group sitting way up above at the same time?”
How do you propose we fix that problem?
Unless someone can come up with a better method of synching Chris’s photos, I”m done with this project.
Marti… you are right.
I am totally not understanding the problem,
I guess… and I also know why.
I have not had even one second here to take
a real look at the recently released MacKenzie
cellphone pictures. I really haven’t.
I also haven’t had much time to follow this
particular ‘sub-thread’. I saw you and
calvin hashing it out and thought that was
more than enough horsepower to
figure out whatever it was you were
trying to figure out.
So again… you are right… I must be not
understanding what the problem is (yet).
I agree that two people can’t be in
different places at the same time… but
I’m also not fully understanding that
conclusion yet, either.
So I promise I will go all the way back to
the top of the discussion where you
started questioning the cellphone times
and/or the MacKenzie times and I will
read ALL of that…
…but not today. I have some other things
I need to be doing today.
In my very humble opinion, I agree with various people who have written here and there, that the the MOST IMPORTANT part of this whole current chapter thingy, including the part way up above where I proved that the sawyers never headed out ahead of the crew on a mission, is that there was constant communication going on between Div A Sup, Granite Mountain 7, and a number of their sups and others during this critical time.
It is no longer admissible that “nobody knew where they were, or that they were on the move, or that they were hunkering down and being safe.” I do believe that Bravo 33, being suddenly handed off the role of Air Attack in the midst of utter chaos, had no clue where anybody was. And that was very frustrating to them. And they couldn’t get any help from those they requested it from, who said Granite Mountain was safe, when now we know they weren’t, and that they knew that.
And the most important take-away from that, plus our work, is that obviously there was no real investigation, evidence was and is being with-held, and a REAL investigation of this whole tragic affair needs to be done.
Agreed, Marti.
I, for one, don’t need any kind of ‘pep talk’ from anyone.
Never have.
An absolute TON of ‘new evidence’ has only recently been made
available which can either confirm some things we have been
talking and/or theorizing about here for months… or it can
prove those things WRONG. I welcome either result because
it’s STILL all about finding out EXACTLY what happened that day.
Yes… it gets messy when you have to go BACK and review
previous assumptions and timelines based on emerging
evidence… but that’s where the rubber meets the road.
Kudos and thanks to John and Elizabeth and anyone else
who has finally made the bulk of this evidence available.
I know that hasn’t been easy… but know that it is appreciated.
We shall see/hear what we shall see/hear ( now ).
There’s still a long way to go.
Yes, and nice hot toasty puffy marshmallows across our campfire, along with a steaming hot chocolate plus a bit of rum, from me to Elizabeth and John too!
Paging GARY OLSON. Paging GARY OLSON. I think the ASAIT can use a pep talk. (I know I sure can.) Holly’s and Maclean’s recent essay has derailed us a little. THEIR goals are not the same as OUR goals (although their goal – of selling books – is totally legitimate and valid).
We want to help bring some transparency and share resources and exchange information. Yet, without getting into things, various people for various reasons have various bad feelings about various issues of minutia, such that we might have temporarily lost a bit of our forward momentum. PLEASE, Gary – we need another one of your rallying pep talks. Come on.
“We’ll never know why they made the decisions
they did”.—I know you are referring to the SAIR about the GMHS but really that is the same quote for the SAIR on making the decisions they made to not be 100% clear on that report. We all will never know why they did an unjust report as they did—the theme of that quote seems to live on…the newest essay article has the same feel to that quote in which it seems even azcentral S McKinnon did his own narrative and collaborations and what I wish someone would do is P.I. the very questions I have been asking like why is it acceptable that the Helms remained behind but they did not cooperate in giving clarity to that weekend and even the week of evacuation—boy my list of questions does require a high paying PI (private investigator)—my hope for 2014 is one is sent my way to assist us in getting clarity.
“We’ll never know why they made the decisions
they did”.—I know you are referring to the SAIR about the GMHS but really that is the same quote for the SAIR on making the decisions they made to not be 100% clear on that report. We all will never know why they did an unjust report as they did—the theme of that quote seems to live on…the newest essay article has the same feel to that quote in which it seems even azcentral S McKinnon did his own narrative and collaborations and what I wish someone would do is P.I. the very questions I have been asking like why is it acceptable that the Helms remained behind but they did not cooperate in giving clarity to that weekend and even the week of evacuation—boy my list of questions does require a high paying PI (private investigator)
**
** NO ONE SAYS “I’M AT THE HOUSE”
I’m still refining that background audio from this video that contains
the reported “I’m at the house” transmission from Marsh… but
I am as certain as I can be now that no one ever says that at all.
The effort that was made to translate that section of audio by Maclean/Hollie
is admirable… but no one ever uses the word ‘house’ at all.
When the ( still unknown ) speaker asks someone ( supposedly Marsh )
“You with Granite Mountain right now?” at +1:21.17… the response is NOT
( as previously reported ) “I’m at the house where we gonna jump out at”.
Whoever responds to that question ( it MIGHT be Marsh but it that hasn’t been
verified. It could be Steed. ) does NOT use the word ‘house’ at all. The response
actually doesn’t even contain the lead word ‘Nah’… so the responder
( Marsh? Steed? ) never actually answers the caller’s question at all about
whether they are ‘with’ Granite Mountain at that moment ( or not ).
The actual transcription on that controversial section of audio is as follows…
+1:21.17
Ten four. You with Granite Mountain right now?
+1:24.68
Uh… just checkin’ it out to see where we’re gonna jump out at.
An enhanced audio clip of just this particular section of the
background conversation is now available on YouTube.
WARNING: The GAIN is set VERY HIGH on this audio clip which
makes it easy to hear what is being said but be careful what
your local volume is set to before you play this clip. The
high gain setting makes it VERY LOUD.
The section of audio in question repeats SIX times and
only represents this part of the background conversation…
NOTE: The ‘ten four’ lead-in appears to be from
a speaker OTHER than the one who asks the question.
This appears to be just an overlap in conversations at
that exact moment.
+1:21.17
(Speaker 1) Ten four.
( A different speaker ) You with Granite Mountain right now?
+1:24.68
Uh… just checkin’ it out to see where we’re gonna jump out at.
Here is a link to the enhanced audio clip on YouTube…
http://youtu.be/eq0rtX5OgKI
Just a followup about the enhanced audio clip.
The original audio from that air-study video was recorded
in STEREO but there is/was something odd about it.
The RIGHT channel had much higher decibel/gain levels
than the left channel… as if a dual-sided stereoscopic
external mic was used and the RIGHT side of the mic
was much closer to the ‘background radios’ than the left
side of the same mic… OR… there was something
actually wrong with the LEFT side pickup on that stereo
mic and it wasn’t ‘pickup up’ as well as the right side.
I did not ‘merge’ the channels into a MONO channel.
The enhanced clip is still in the same ‘unbalanced’
stereo that is apparent in the original.
So… for anyone using ear-buds to listen to the enhanced
clip… just be sure you have BOTH of the ear-buds in
or you are going to miss the full audio
capture/enhancement.
If you only have one or the other in your ear… it will be
difficult to hear the background radio captures since
the GAIN boost was applied to BOTH channels.
Wow. Excellent work. I think you nailed it, WTKTT.
Elizabeth had allowed me access to the FOIL info she received early on. (Which I appreciate) I listened to all of the uploaded material and the video in question with the statements that have been transcribed. I dismissed it very early on as being of no real importance. It sounds like a mix match of different conversations and frequencies. There are several “air attack” videos and I believe at least one “ground pounder” video where you can make out some radio traffic. After listening I must say it is inconclusive. There is not enough continuity of conversation to actually substantiate the claims…..
Eric… I have to disargree with you about the only things I have
heard so far… that being the Blue Ridge Hotshot Mccord
video entitled YARNELL_GAMBLE and now this new video
that Elizabeth has posted a link to just above that does, in fact,
contain these ‘new’ 4:13 PM radio conversations that
appeared over on Wildfire today…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WgErgCiYoo&feature=youtu.be
There will be much continuing debate over some of the EXACT
words being heard in BOTH of these videos… but there most
certainly is enough ‘continuity’ in BOTH of them to be sure
that any NUMBER of people at the command level were
communicating directly with both Eric Marsh and Jesse
Steed right smack in the middle of this ‘blackout’ period that
the SAIR claimed and which was, in essence, the very basis
for their claim “We’ll never know why they made the decisions
they did”.
Even if no other radio conversations are discovered I believe
these two alone are sufficient evidence to call pretty much
EVERYONE who was there that day back in for more
detailed interviews to find out the truth about what happened
that day.
I should clarify my previous statement; every piece of evidence is important. After all the devil is in the detail. I’m not sold on the whole theory of making it to the ranch or even beyond the deployment site yet.. I need to see some physical evidence, you know what I mean…..
See an enhanced audio clip below.
No one ever says “I’m at the house”.
Marti —After more thought the to Fire fighters up with the helicopter could actually be with the helicopter if the crew was not there. Having packs the same as crews with all there equipment Helitack crews make Initial attack on fires and would have same packs as hotshots. they would have them with them if out on the fire. Would have to attach names to helitack crews on fire. might be a hard to ID thing. I would not go to deep into it.
I wrote up above to WTKTT:
“Like I’ve said through these threads, I’m not doing any more work on this stuff as long as I’m being essentially stone-walled.”
However, thanks for responding. I’m just totally frustrated with this whole Mystery Man thing I’ve poured a ton of time into.
Just the way you are with that “other” thing.
Sending you a nice big fat yummy virtual roasted marshmallow across our campfire along with some rum and hot chocolate to go with it.
Namaste
Just for info I answered Holly’s challenge to smart guys last night on wildfire today and Bill did not post it so he is doing some editing of his own on reply’s.
also go read R3 statement there he sounds like he knew Marsh and said the statement “house drop off” was not March with all the traffic on I believe DIV. Freq. there are several different people maybe talking over each other. Hopefully we will get the clear copy to listen to.
Bob, you are an incredible man, and I encourage you to divert your time and effort to websites (like this one) that actually APPRECIATE your comments and feedback rather than deleting them or refusing to post them. (Please bring that guy Charles Mosby or whatever his name is with you from Bill’s website when you come. 🙂 )
You, Bob Powers, have skin in this “game” (not that it is a game) – you lost your FATHER in a tragedy like this, AND you have worked in fires like these. Therefore, in my mind, you deserve a bit of latitude in terms of taking a seat at this table. I do not always agree with you, but I respect the role that you play in this discussion and the credibility that you and others who are willing to share their name publicly bring to the discussion.
Therefore, I am disappointed that Bill is moderating/deleting some of your comments on his website and those of others who are asking probing questions regarding Maclean’s and Holly’s essay. Obviously Bill can delete whatever comments he wants – it is his website – but surely he appreciates that moderating out dissent could have negative ramifications in terms of his credibility and appearance of objectivity.
I know for a fact that Holly Neill trolls this website, so I would encourage you to post your responses to her questions here, given that Bill will not accept them.
I have never expected any one to always agree with what I have said. and sometimes I jump before I look and have learned to accept that failing along with my sometimes hard headedness.
as we headed over to that area of photos on the private google+ link which takes forever to load we thought we are not going to label THIS ONE like said earlier—we have too much to do today but we will skim it and mark photos that we feel are worth noting—#351/998 shows there was no road near the Helms BEFORE and that the bulldozer was done after. Also a good photo to show the DENSITY. #354/998,#357/998 shows that area- DENSE/SLOW GOING. How about #396/998 and HOW COME you were the MOST photographed that day and I truly HOPE my sd card is recovered because that yellow and white helicopter pilot should be on these comment walls bringing clarity because he hovered/observed at such a low altitude he probably can tell you exactly where Marsh was throughout that day yet I never saw in reports stuff like who the mystery man was with Marsh- that person needs to come here and say “sonny/Joy; it was me”
BRING SOME TRUE FACTUAL CLARITY HERE!!!!
We grow weary at times that people just go forward in life and do not give a sh**; that needs to in this case. also how do you sleep at night?
Man, when people hear the GMHS voices, doesn’t it rip you up inside? This was an avoidable outcome and the answer did not die with men and we strongly believe Y O U can help.
#556/998 who’s vehicle is that and did you know about the shortcut near your vehicle?
Weird.
I do not see the photo I am looking for on that link yet to support the sawyer topic. I will check zazzle. After that I have to make an appt. to retrieve my originals I have stored with someone I trust away from my daily world.
I hear the videos of yours posted Elizabeth and I also hear CLICK CLICK CLICK of a camera—has those photos of the CLICK CLICK CLICK become part of the SAIR or OSHA or made public?
again this is Joy here typing and Sonny reading as I type to post. One thing is for sure I have passed around questions that for some reason I get the ol’ we will give/share you this info when it comes in or we will search or we will…but I become a back burner in which if I saw just ONE person really say “Joy, if you go get the originals and we look over the photos…I will make the time to guide you and answer what I can” I bet there is MORE photos that never even got uploaded as I saw on zazzle happen that is possible it happened to the google+ and I sit on some photos that are crucial to this but right now I am so frustrated that over time I ask a question and I am for some reason one of the “overlooked” comments and Marti Reed recently stated on JD’s page a statement that said “some of you complain about Sonny/Joy….”
I don’t care what one thinks of me or how I lead my life or how I leave a comment but I DO care when I post a question and I get back burn and for some time now I told Sonny why even bother to go see what photos did not make it to the zazzle/google—people want to narrate and speculate and cannot answer some of my simple inquiries and you know what there has to be “I think this…” backed up to your sources listed to how you came to that conclusion especially on this kind of revelation. I won’t accept ANYTHING else out there unless you can show me how you got that conclusion. Like I told Sonny…take me out of the email world and stop going to these comment walls that feed on talking redundantly about that terrain like they knew it and never even been there—I HIKED it and I KNEW every freakin’ corner or flaw or perfection to that area- it was my home that burnt down there that I went over and over to show you all with hikes even when it hurt deep not because I gave a sh** to be in any article or book or tv segment but because my eyes can be OPEN or CLOSED and all I see are those childrens’ faces that lost their dad and the wives that have to try and make sense of something when THEY NEED CLARITY because these 19 men should of never died; it makes me WEEP DEEP to think we have not had ONE person say “Joy, I know you have the google and zazzle photos but can we make an appt. to see the ones you downloaded to your storage unit from the sd card because I think maybe a photo was not loaded that may be crucial to this fire” —My own family/friends/neighbors can share to you that I have spent more of my daily life out here amongst the terrain versus my own home. I know this terrain as well as the flora/cacti and the wildlife/insects/birds. I know how many birds are in one area and how far they travel. I know what areas are restricted, private, state and BLM and where claims were and are and who owns what…this is my area. I can see atv enthusiast screwing up the area, geologist or prospector time to time or hunters/herpetologists or a runner/jogger but NONE avidly are out there like I am. I have had so many hiking pals state they wish they had the endurance I do to stay out there like I do. Some even hiked with me the distance to see if I could because looking at me they judged and figured no way. I guarantee I am weak (medical massager will confirm that) but even at my weak phase to life I put one foot in front of the other and keep going (maybe I cannot do what I did long ago but I just don’t stop because I cannot do those things). Until people read my questions and none of them were bad ones and some needed the actual person to come out and say “ME ME ME” it was but really no way if Bob Powers is saying the article here is a time stamp of 40 minutes from above the Yarnell fire edge to the Ranch—no way. PROVE IT! Show me. I will take you to the same terrain and same distance on a hike with the same steep areas and you SHOW ME how ANY human being athletic or not can get from that spot—I KNOW that terrain and I am drained of people disregarding such. It’s home to me. I have been hit by a Diamondback rattler effecting my vision June- October one year and even half blinded or blind you can throw me in that desert and I KNOW it. I think this article as much as I am pleased to confirm it compliments my thoughts on some areas but I am burning red when people keep coming out without sources of HOW they came up with it. Yet I keep getting put on the back burner and I was there. Were not talking about me there just that day or weekend—you are talking about someone who has hiked it for almost a decade and not just here and there….I NEED answers to HOW this came to this article being posted without transparency or links for us to listen….I got to get going…enough coming online for me. If you see any future comments on any site- it is Sonny not me. I am so done with people accepting things without guiding us to how you got there. This is as you can see a sensitive area to my life. I cannot shake the kids faces that have no father. It just tears me up.
Joy no misunderstanding here Holly’s time frame and having Marsh at the ranch at 1630 was my 40 min. as Marsh was at the meeting spot waiting for Frizby at 1550 when McDonough was picked up and the meeting canceled do to the fire movement and the need to move GM vehicles. Well documented times by Frizby and McDonough, and the SAIT. I was totally believing you on time it would take and my knowledge of hiking thru brush. The time it took the crew to get to where they were even 1 man going there might have been a little faster but no way in 40 min.
I do not believe Holly took into account where Marsh was actually at between 1530 and 1550 to meet Frizby.
Joy~
Did you see the email I sent you on Saturday? I wasn’t and am not back-burnering you. I spent my whole weekend trying to figure out how to do this. But it’s not magic. And sometimes it’s really hard. I sent you email that I needed you to respond to before I could go forward. (And that was before I discovered I have a broken water line leading into my house which I still haven’t had time to fix).
So here’s the content of the email I sent you:
“OK circling in spiraling in trying to connect the dots (and we don’t need to get super-accurate here, just as close as what we can tell us)….
When you say “AFTER seeing the GMHS” does that mean, also, when you photographed them?
I’m trying to find the closest camera photo that might correspond in time to this one. Which will help me get these photos at least relatively more sync’d to this one.
~Marti”
I need to find a camera photograph closest in time to when you took the 9:40 with your cellphone. Until I have that, I can’t go forward. Do you remember even remotely the last time you shot a camera photo before you caught this one, or the next time you shot a camera photo after this one?
Marti… I believe the key to ‘syncing’ Joy’s photographs
lies in the photos she took of both Marsh and the men
arriving up at the ridge. We know when she first met
Marsh ( and photographed him continuing on his
way ). That was circa 8:07 AM.
We also know when the rest of GM made it up there.
That was circa 9:50. ( Passed Chief Andersen’s at
exactly 8:03… parked on Sesame… put their gear
on… and then a ’45 minute hike’ according to SAIR
and interview notes ).
So between those two ‘real’ events… I believe the
actual time offsets can be determined.
Keep in mind… however… that Joy’s camera clock
might have been pretty broken. She dropped it down
a mine shaft one day and while the metadata is still
being recorded the clock might simply be broken.
Example: One of her photos has a time stamp of…
5:55:55.55
That’s not a good sign.
Whoops… sorry… typo above. Meant to say
that GM Crew finished their hike up there ( and
were photographed doing so ) circa 9:00 AM
or so and NOT 9:50 AM.
If the clock on Joy’s camera was not totally haywire
and producing ‘random’ time stamps… then I still
think the key to finding the ‘relative offset’ is in
the photographs of ‘known moments’ and the
time they happened such as any of the photos
of meeting Marsh, the end of the Crew hike, or
any of the air drops she photographed that day.
Like I’ve said through these threads, I’m not doing any more work on this stuff as long as I’m being essentially stone-walled.
And, as I offered down below a ways to Bob Powers for giving me a tip on this, here’s a big fat awesome roasted marshmallow to you, too, across our campfire, along with some rum and some steaming hot chocolate. And thanks for the email. I did a ROTFL, also. Cheers to the ASAITmafiosos!
And here’s an example of some of the kind of stuff I normally do:
http://tinyurl.com/n6o99cp
So you can tell I have a pretty highly developed sense of humor!
n58az search and rescue- if there was a way to see their air log and when they went and observed the area that will be another good start- here is where WWTKTT suggestion may of been okay but there is my missing sd card that would help here. I think if we can get the time that n58az helicopter was right there that is a good time point because he was in the area when I took the 9:40am photo.
Joy A Collura
on January 21, 2014 at 7:09 pm said:
n58az search and rescue- if there was a way to see their air log and when they went and observed the area that will be another good start- here is where WWTKTT suggestion may of been okay but there is my missing sd card that would help here. I think if we can get the time that n58az helicopter was right there that is a good time point because he was in the area when I took the 9:40am photo.
=======================================
reply—
does anyone have the air log for Clifford Brunstig?
his air log will assess the time of my photos.
that specific back burner scenario was not in relations to the photos or you-
it was however in relations to information Y O U can offer and we know they stop here. One day, we will hopefully see the whole can of worms open up when Y O U finally does share…
And PS. I NEVER said anybody here was complaining about your writing. Never. Obviously I should never have said anything at all.
Joy~
Here’s the two-thread conversation I had with Bob Powers this weekend about your Mystery Man photo:
“Marti Reed
on January 19, 2014 at 5:50 pm said:
PS I do think it has something to do with the helicopter. I may as well go ahead and say what I found with relative timing, not real timing.
Approximately one hour after Mystery Man was photographed with Eric at the top of a ridge (and I still haven’t had time to zoom way in and enhance and try to see MM in more detail), the yellow helicopter “N14HX” was photographed. About 20 minutes later the heli is photographed with a line hanging from it. A minute later it’s shot twice coming close into the ridgetop. A minute later it’s shot flying high with two things hanging down. A minute later Joy zooms way in so you can see the two things hanging down (which I don’t know what they are, but some of you all may).
15 minutes later, Joy photographs Eric walking down in the brush.
So that’s the relative story.
I also haven’t had time to compare the ridgetop with MM and the ridgetop with the helicopter. And I’m running out of time.
•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
Marti Reed
on January 20, 2014 at 7:38 am said:
I “identified” Radio 13 as being Caldwell’s radio, because the closest body (I think) is Caldwell’s. It’s in a pile of stuff I think might be a pack. It’s on the “outside” of the Deployment area.
And now I’m going back to bed. I woke up way too early, kept trying to figure out Joy’s Mystery Man, but still can’t do it without something to sync the photos to in more real time. Which I still don’t have.
It’s to hard to see, and there’s no “photo enhancement software” out there that will remove the pixelation without removing detail, that I know of.
What I noticed though, is there’s no red helmet there, that I can see. And I think I should be able to see it. The light’s clear.
So I started thinking maybe it’s two GMHSs up there, doing something in relationship to the helicopter, which comes in an hour later, and picks up stuff from the upper peak of that ridge to the right. But the photo of the crew “walking in” is two hours and fifteen minutes later. So I still don’t get it.
By the way it’s file number 134.
Reply ↓

Bob Powers on January 20, 2014 at 9:01 am said:
Could be Helitack with the Helicopter unloading maybe pumps or pumpkin filling. Just a thought. ↓

Marti Reed on January 20, 2014 at 9:17 am said:
Thx. That’s what I was thinking but I didn’t know enough about this particular piece of the operations to say that. Also it looks like they have back-packs on. Does Helitack wear backpacks? ”
I’ve done all I can with the information I’ve got.
I don’t think so but if at a helispot maybe need a current FF to answer that.
As I wrote to you above, in response to your earlier comment:
“sonny and joy here on January 21, 2014 at 5:27 am said:
please read the comment we left at Bill Gabbert’s—we need Marti or WWTKTT to get gps location on the aftermath hike—heading there now to label them THIS ONE on caption but we may have the sawyer cutting photos not even realizing it.
Reply ↓
Marti Reed
on January 21, 2014 at 12:40 pm said:
Are you looking at your photos on your Google + or the folder of your photos/videos that JD is posting on Dropbox?
I can download the photos from JD’s Dropbox collection, without them being made smaller and the metadata stripped, as Google + is doing.
Reply ↓
Marti Reed
on January 21, 2014 at 1:09 pm said:
And PS. It’s more than a little difficult to help you with your photos when you have, apparently decided to deny me access to your album.
Reply ↓
Marti Reed
on January 21, 2014 at 1:10 pm said:
I’ve pretty much decided to retire from this business. I’m sure the lawyers will eventually decide to hire someone and pay them to continue the work I’ve been doing.
Reply ↓”
Marti Said…..What, exactly, makes you think that? (about both Ashcraft and Parker)?
Andrew Ashcraft
Let me start by saying I believe there is a picture of Andrew Ashcraft that hasn’t been revealed and could be part of the NEW MYSTERY involving the article at Wildfire
Image 0887… look at the right arm on Ashcraft’s sunglasses and compare with image 2736. (specifically the arm of the sunglasses.)
The other identifiers are the blue carabineer at the top right of backpack securing chainsaw pad (don’t know what that is called) This carabineer can be seen in images 0881, 0885, 0889, videos 0888, 0891 as well as cell phone image 2736.
Cell phone image 2736 shows a carabineer (red/orange) attached to hip belt, a blue fuel bottle, and a (possibly knife clipped to hip belt of backpack). These items are also visible in image 0887 from camera.
I see what you’re saying about 2736 and 0887. But how do you account for the time problem?
2736 3:51:58
0887 3:52:24
or the time problem I wrote about above?
And now that I’ve gone though the Powershot and iphone sequences, and now that I agree with you on identifying Ashcraft and Wade Parker in their locations, I still have the same timestamp problem. Unless Chris has cloned himself or something, or the Powershot is off, even though it shows Wade Parker taking his photo at the right time, or the iphone timestamps are inaccurate, we have Chris photographing Ashcraft way down below, at the same time we have him photographing Ashcraft up above with the crew. Or maybe Ashcraft and Parker cloned themselves?
So now I’m thinking we might want to get a timestamp from Caldwell’s video which I don’t have. Do you have that?
Whatever way this all goes, I think the most important part, given the most recent brouhaha, is that it’s pretty much absolutely clear that when Ashcraft and the other sawyer, walked off from where they were, they were just walking UP to join the crew up above, and not OUT on some kind of mission. Case closed.
Marti Said…..What, exactly, makes you think that? (about both Ashcraft and Parker)?
Parker First.
The Prescott Daily Courier first published image 0886 from Mackenzies camera and captioned it identifying Wade Parker with a time of 3:52.
Image 0886 my review…. Parker has his collar standing up. He has a red fuel bottle attached at hip. He has a white container inside his side pocket of backpack. There are two rolls of flagging clearly visible Pink then white (left to right) with a third roll barely visible on the far left (a fluorescent green roll)
Image 0885 (3:52) shoes Parker (my opinion) from the back. Notice the three rolls of flagging (green pink white, Right to left). The shirt collar up and the white container on his right side in the side pocket.
Image 0889…. Shows (in my opinion) the same three rolls of flagging (on the Hotshot sitting directly below the one standing) ,white on the right, pink in the center and a small glimpse of the green on the left. The red fuel container (top part) can also be seen on his right hip area.
Cell phone image 2735… This picture offers the least (in my opinion, in regards to Wade Parker) but still shows the white roll of flagging.
Cell phone image 2736 shows tree rolls of flagging green pink white right to left
Page 23 SAIR…. figure 9 shows a photo that was TEXTED at 1604 by Wade Parker. I believe this picture correlates with the position Wade Parker is sitting in in the images 0889, 2735 and 2736 and the videos 0888 and 0891. BOTH vides by Mackenzies camera also show Wade Parker (my opinion)
Video 0888… At the very beginning of this video Wade Parker has a phone (I think) in his hand. I am not sure what he is doing, but I would think it has something to do with the photo that he texted. The roll of white tape is visible.
Video 0891… Again. Same white flagging and same red fuel bottle.
Thanks to all.
Calvin– evaluate the pictures with the fire in the back ground
to me there is very little change in the fire for a 10 min. lapse of time from sawyer to sitting and look very close to the same spot.
Mr Powers. I have a hard time guessing based on the fire or smoke. I still have a few questions/ observations about image 0885, 0886, and 0887. Where is the grader in these pictures? Who actually did the cuttings in these pictures? I don’t think it was the sawyers in the images as they were moving (south I believe.) Also there appears to be some green in these pictures where the other pictures around 4pm show mostly burned areas. Personally, I have always felt these three pictures could be the last pictures taken of GM, even if the timestamps do not match up.
If you look at the image in the SAIR (by Mackenzie) and compare it to the Robert Caldwell You Tube video posted by Elizabeth, I believe you can see the exact same smoke pattern. Exact!
Hmmm. Now I’m a bit more stumped, but not about what I’m saying. Which is that I disagree with you.
Cellphone photo 2736 (3:51:58) pretty much agrees with camera photo 0889 (4:01:52) w/same people sitting in the same places.
There are three photos of hotshots taking pictures. 2734, 2735, and 0885.
Let me start with 0885, cuz it’s easier. Taken at 3:52:07. That’s Andrew Ashcroft, id’d by the white bracelet on his right wrist. (see story I wrote about that in Chapter 3.) And, now that you’ve described it, and I checked out the Courier pictures, I agree that’s Wade Parker on the rock next to him. (Assuming the Courier got it right).
The problem is, how could either of them be in 2736 (3:51:58), the first cellphone picture showing the group up above (quite a distance up above, I would add) and in 0085 (3:52:07) at essentially the same time?
Does that make sense?
The two other cellphone pix of someone taking pix are:
2734 (3:50:06)
2735 (3:50:19)
I had id’d THESE as being Wade Parker, because I remembered he had texted a photo out, but I had never gone digging to check the time that happened. So now I don’t know who this is.
But do you understand that what I said before and am saying now is that Ashcraft and Parker (if the Courier and we have him id’d corrrectly) can’t be among the group sitting way up above at the same time?
So, after more thinking and looking at the photos, I do now agree with you about Ashcraft. That’s definitely him there!
Which means, obviously, the camera’s timestamping is off. And I think it’s important, especially given the current convo regarding the sawyers, to try to get these photos/videos properly sequenced. We need to figure out whether the Ashcraft walking photo comes before or after the “options converation.” And by how much time. What’s your take on it?
And, as I was picking my way back thru Chapter 3, looking for some things, I came across the convo about the Caldwell video. I knew there was another photo or video taken, but I didn’t remember what. So now I know that the standing hotshot down there with a cellphone is Robert Caldwell. And you’re probably right that that is Wade Parker up there with Andrew, somewhere around about the time he took the photo he sent to his wife. So do you think we need to go forward or backward with the camera, and by how much time?
Thanks Marti! This whole process with me openly discussing the YHF began when Daily Courier posted the pictures along with the SAIR release and I immediately picked up the fact that image 0885, 0886, and 0887 didn’t fit in with the Mackenzie Sair pic 1550 and the video(s) 0888 and 0891.
I think it is important to identify the hotshots in all the photos, especially the ones after 1530. I agree the phone times are probably more trustworthy than the camera times. I believe I have found another small clue that may help narrow things down a little more. More Later
WTKTT… Do YOU think I have correctly identified Parker and Ashcraft?
I just spent a bunch of time googling and reading stuff on the apple website, wondering how it could be that those cellphone photos often have such apparently RANDOM file numbers attached to them, and those three airplane photos are the same photo same time with different file numbers. I don’t have a smartphone, so I’m not up on how they store and number image files. But it was really bugging me.
Come to find out, there ARE problems with iphone timestamps and file numbering. It’s a common complaint. When iphone image files are either downloaded thru iTunes/iPhoto, or uploaded to Photostream, it’s apparently very common for this metadata to be changed in the process. So, I no longer have such ABSOLUTE certainty about the time stamps.
I don’t know exactly how, software/hardware-wise, these cellphone photos/videos were downloaded (uploaded?). And I’m not sure how critical that is. But I think it’s something to keep in mind.
So, yes, the question is.
I think it’s possible, both, that Ashcraft et al, were down below in the red-colored rocks, while Ashcraft took that photo, and then came up to join the group during the conversation while Caldwell did his video and Parker snapped his shot; or that the conversation happened up there, while Caldwell did his video, and Wade snapped his shot, and then the four headed down, first sitting on the rocks while Ashcraft took his shot, and then headed out.
Although, now that I just wrote it, intuitively it would seem likely that the first scenario would trump the second one. If they had sat thru the conversation, and then set out as a team on a mission, it would seem less likely that they would take a break and sit on the rocks so Ashcraft could take a photo, and then head out. Unless they weren’t actually a team on a mission.
As far as identifying people, I’m inclined to believe that the one at the end of the four, walking, is Anthony Rose, after looking at a bunch of pictures of him. So the ones walking from the red-coated rocks would be sawyers Ashcraft and either Travis Carter or Travis Turbyfill, and then Wade Parker and then Anthony Rose. But I could always be wrong!!!
And, quite frankly, after have written THAT, and then going back and looking at the three walking photos, it looks WAY more likely they are headed up, not down.
So the progression of the movement makes more sense, if the four started out being quite a bit below the rest of the crew, (and maybe even Chris was with them) around the red-covered rocks, where Ashcraft took his photo, and then they came up from there and joined the rest of the crew around about the time the conversation took place.
Which would indicate there’s no evidence that any sub-group of the crew headed out before any of the rest of the crew.
And, DOH, if you just look at the Powershot pictures, that’s exactly what’s happening!
OK. So what I’m seeing now, just the stuff shot by the Powershot.
Chris is definitely down there with them. I made a mistake when I originally said he was shooting 80mm. He was shooting 80 iso. (Brain-dead, eyes going blind, teensy lightroom font). He’s shooting wide focal length. So he has to be RIGHT DOWN THERE with them.
0885 Ashcraft shooting. 3:52:07
0886 Wade Parker leading out, Rose (?) seen down below him. 3:52:18
0887 Ashcraft, Carter/Turbyfill, Rose (?) following Parker. 3:52:24
Remember, Chris is down there, walking with them, and photographing them.
0888 First video. Chris, Ashcraft, Parker–for sure–and most likely Rose and Carter/Turbyvill also, are now up with the crew. Eight minutes later. That sounds about right. 4:01:31
0889 Chris quickly shoots a little higher to shoot the fire. 4:01:59
0890 Chris quickly shoots vertical to really get the smoke and fire. 4:02:00
0891 Chris shoots the second video. 4:02:10.
Remember, we don’t know those timestamps are ACCURATE, but we know they are RELATIVELY accurate.
And the 4:01 video shows Wade Parker using his cellphone, which would correspond to his taking a photo and texting it out to his wife.
Next. What I’m seeing in Chris’s iphone photos:
Remember this sequence is AFTER Chris, Ashcraft, et al have come up from below and settled in with the crew, sometime before or after he shoots the first video on the Powershot at its timestamp of 4:01:31, eight minutes after he photographed Ashcraft starting to walk up from the rocks below, with Parker in front of him, Carter/Turbyfill beside him and Anthony Rose (?) behind him.
2733 Chris is up with the crew. Robert Caldwell standing below, pulling out his cellphone from his pocket. We haven’t seen him there in any of the Powershot photos. 3:49: 50
2734 Caldwell filming towards the fire. Chris has turned on QuickTime on his iphone (for whatever reason, QuickTime is used to manage/edit video) 3:50:06
2735 Wide shot. Caldwell filming more to the right. Chris has turned off QuickTime. 3:50:19
2736 Can’t see Robert. Chris has moved forward, closer to Deford. Chris has turned on GPS. It registers 34°13’39” N 112°47’24” W, altitude 5748.0 ft., Direction North-East. 3:51:58
2393 This is exactly the same as…
2737 Vertical of smoke. Chris has moved down a little, same spot, turned QuickTime back on. 3:55:20
2245 Exactly the same as…
2738 Chris has turned to shoot a big wide photo to the east showing the smoke dropping. QuickTime is now off. 3:55:31
So. I don’t think he’s using the iphone and the Powershot at the same time.
With the iphone, he’s fiddling around, having trouble or something with QuickTime. Halfway through it he turns on the GPS. I can’t believe he’s doing all that while also using the Powershot.
Here’s where I’m having a problem.
The “down below” sequence with the Powershot is 3:52:07 to 3:52:24.
The up with the crew Powershot sequence begins with the video at 4:01:31 and includes Wade Parker using his cellphone at the right time for him to shoot the photo and send to his wife. The sequence ends with the second video at 4:02:10. Very brief sequence.
The iphone sequence begins at 3:49:50 and ends at 3:55:31.
The problem is that if we sync the Powershot sequence to the Wade Parker shot, at 4:01, and assume the cellphone sequence, which perfectly connects to that sequence, comes before it, (and given that Chris was constantly fiddling with his iphone while taking it) we’re left with the problem that he is taking the cellphone cellphone sequence at the same time that he’s taking the “down below sequence.”
There’s just no way he could be doing both of those at the same time.
**DRINK**
Marti, Many, Many Thanks for all the information above. Thanks for putting your eyes on this, it is VERY important (my humble opinion)
You’re welcome. I agree. I think it’s very very important.
I’m thinking you’ve identified Parker insofar as I can’t imagine the Prescott Courier would have mis-identified him, all things considered. They would have been sternly reprimanded if they had done that, all things considered.
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_-A47xgyIvRC3FoQGv3w4A?feature=watch
Relevant Videos: I have asked Holly Neill and John Maclean if they would tell me the names of the videos that they were referencing in their recently posted blog essay that asserts Eric Marsh claimed to have been at the Helms Ranch “house,” so that I can find and link those videos for all of you here. Bob Powers actually made this request to Holly and Maclean over on the site where Holly/Maclean posted their story (as did at least one other person), but neither Holly nor Maclean has responded. Obviously I can make a FOIA/FOIL request to ADOSH and get Holly’s/Maclean’s materials to share with this group that way, but that will take time. It would be far faster for Holly and Maclean to just share the materials the way that others have been sharing materials regarding the Yarnell Hill Fire tragedy. Maybe some of you will post comments here or on the other blog asking Holly and Maclean to share. Bill Gabbert could have insisted Holly and Maclean include links as a condition to Bill agreeing to publish their essay, to ensure transparency, but Bill did not, for reasons that are unclear to me.
In the meanwhile, I am pretty sure that Holly Neill was relying at least in part on the most recently posted videos at the below link: http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_-A47xgyIvRC3FoQGv3w4A?feature=watch
The NAMES of the videos correspond to the TIMES at which the videos were taken (e.g. the video named “20130630 161202 fire behavior EP” was taken at roughly 4:12:02 p.m.). The videos closer to 4 p.m. (e.g. 15:52:38 or 16:12:02) are more likely to be relevant.
I also asked Bill personally we’ll see.
Elizabeth… the video link you already posted above…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WgErgCiYoo&feature=youtu.be
…is, in fact, the one that has the background audio translation
that was published over at Wildfire today. If there is ANOTHER
one that captures the same radio traffic, but is not so terribly
messy and confusing… that would be great… but it’s also possible
for anyone to listen to just what you posted ( with no audio
enhancement ) and hear that MacLean/Holly didn’t get it all
quite right.
The other conversation that proves fire command was
most certainly ‘communicating’ with Granite and knew exactly
where they were and what they were doing and how they
were doing it… is simply the other public Blue Ridge Hotshot
Mccord video entitled YARNELL_GAMBLE.
I think Maclean/Holly got a few words of the YARNELL_GAMBLE
translation wrong but here’s the important thing to remember…
In BOTH of these captured radio conversations… the TIME
is KNOWN and while there will probably be debate about
certain words and phrases being spoken for years to come…
…they BOTH already prove that there were people at the
command level that day actively communicating with
Marsh AND Steed all throughout the time the SAIR says
there were ‘radio problems and a communications blackout’.
There’s already enough proof there to call everyone back
for more interviews and get to the truth.
please read the comment we left at Bill Gabbert’s—we need Marti or WWTKTT to get gps location on the aftermath hike—heading there now to label them THIS ONE on caption but we may have the sawyer cutting photos not even realizing it.
Are you looking at your photos on your Google + or the folder of your photos/videos that JD is posting on Dropbox?
I can download the photos from JD’s Dropbox collection, without them being made smaller and the metadata stripped, as Google + is doing.
And PS. It’s more than a little difficult to help you with your photos when you have, apparently decided to deny me access to your album.
we never denied you access. Joy’s mom said that 2 nights ago. We even today accepted the invite to look and thought it was strange because you are on the list of approved already.
I’ve pretty decided to retire from this business. I’m sure the lawyers will eventually decide to hire someone and pay them to continue the work I’ve been doing.
Marti-
Sonny/I are online reading about transmissions so stopped here . Just want you to know I am not feeling well. I do apologize myself for my frustrated comment to all here this morning but I lost some sleep over this article last night.
Just to clarify I did read “Every time someone complains about how Joy/Sonnie write, I want to say, “Try reading the official interview reports!” back on the 16th that you posted but no biggie just was icing to something that unfolded over the Holidays.
I did not just throw that out there; it was mentioned.
I was on a hike today trying to figure out the core to my frustrations and I reckon it is the fact the officials pick and choose who they take for the hike yet in 2013 we never said no to anyone who seeked the truth. Even some weeks when I was ill I did the hike anyways. Even times injured, I hiked it. Yet the CORE to my frustrations are not the people who have been here all along seeking 100% transparency/clarity; you all—it is the new news from people I hold a trust for and that is Holley and John MacLean yet it hurts me greatly that they had no problem sharing the information to OSHA publicly but never called me and or even emailed me of the revelation and when they posted it did not have a source link. I had to get a heads up to keep a lookout on Bill Gabbert’s page from Holley. Like I had to wait until Bill shared it to learn about this when she knew that very week we spoke on the phone. Yeah, it hurt me. Here Sonny made them a heart and arrowhead necklace from the glass we found up in the area the GMHS last were and I made stuff too. We made them one, Elizabeth, and few others we hiked with—I am not disappointed like Sonny thinks but burning red
only because she stated awhile back if she ever got anything she would let me know. I have heard that a lot over time to have to read it later online news that someone told me they would share-
Now for you Marti- I will make the time this year to get a day and just scroll the photos and pick out the best ones needing answer because you are the right one to do so please accept my apology for throwing you into that comment this morning. I guess I know I got my frustrations and I vented it wrong, It is not like I can just go to some file and see the photos from 6-30-13. I have to make an appt. than I have to look on a storage unit that is soooo disorganized that I tried once to do it by date but it does not work. That in itself is frustrating. Maybe this week when my medical massager stops by I can take that time out. I know its important and so do you that we cannot take the chance of waiting for lawyers to get their hands on it. We can do it together and I will directly email you when I have the raw photos to email- ok. I just think of the kids so much since this happened…the wives/gfriends/etc.
Tears me up! Just write this day off as it was an off one for me…we go forward; fresh start—ok.
Now for John and Holly- you did good putting an article out; keep this main stream but please make addendum with source. take your camera and play that tiny piece you got and post it so that not just 1 widow/family hears it but all the loved ones and us.
The video at the following link has a GM reference at roughly 50 seconds in. It is worth listening to.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WgErgCiYoo&feature=youtu.be
Thank you, Elizabeth. ( Ongoing thanks, of course ).
This is the video that has the purported critical conversation
in the background with Marsh saying he is ‘at the house’.
Everyone needs to take a deep breath here.
This audio is VERY messy and contains at least 2 people
talking in the foreground while filming a VLAT drop, plus
at least TWO radios in the background capturing different
command channels and all the conversations are actually
OVERLAPPING in this video/audio.
Plus the wind is blowing and traffic is passing by.
I have converted this audio track to a WAV file, added (multiple)
noise filtering and normalization passes, and boosted the gain
to +24db… and that’s giving pretty good listenable quality to the background stuff… but it still can get better.
Someone does, in fact say “at the house”… and someone
does, in fact, say “gonna jump out at”… but they do NOT even appear to be the same person saying both of these things…
…and I’m pretty sure NEITHER one of them is Eric Marsh.
The only conversation with Marsh and Steed that is
captured here has ALREADY ended with a ‘Copy that’
before the other guys ( structure protection guys? ) start
chiming in the background with stuff like ‘at the house’
and ‘gonna jump out at’.
The conversations are OVERLAPPING because the camera
was capturing MULTIPLE background radio conversations.
On top of that… the ‘translations’ for the parts that ARE, in fact,
Marsh and Steed are not what Wildfire today has published.
Close… but no cigar.
More about this later.
Obviously I want to try to ‘get this right’ before ‘jumping any
guns’ like some other people seem to have done.
By the way…
The ‘background conversation’ that DOES capture some
conversation with BOTH Marsh AND Steed actually starts
at +40 seconds ( and not +50 ) with this…
+0:40.52
( A pretty heavy accent on this speaker )
( Almost sounds like Louisiana Cajun? )
Granite Mountain ( Another single word here. Sounds like ‘five’ )… What’s your status right now?
The ‘accent’ on this individual asking Granite Mountain ( and
NOT ‘DIVS A’ as Wildfire today reports ) is so heavy that
his query on the radio actually SOUNDS like this…
Granite Montun ( five? )… Wuz yo status rat now?
Anybody know anyone who was there that day at the command
level that might have had a thick Lousiana ‘Cajun’ accent?
WTKTT, forgive me for being your own personal stalker, but can you e-mail me at elizabethreyarnell (all one word) which is an @gmail.com account and send me the “cleaned-up” version of the audio that you reference above, so that I can then post it for this group? You realize, of course, that you do not have to e-mail me from your own personal e-mail account. You can create an e-mail named, say, “[email protected]” so that I will never know who you are! 😉
(Alternatively, you can e-mail me from your real account and instruct me never to mention who you are, and I will promise not to do it. I already have at least three people who have asked me such things, and I am happy to oblige.)
I think it would be GREAT for this group to listen to a cleaned-up version, but I doubt John Maclean or Holly Neill are going to share theirs for me to then post and share with you. I have my fingers crossed, but I am not optimistic.
Elizabeth… I will do it… when I am sure I have this
audio cleaned up as much as possibe… just as I
did already with the YARNELL_GAMBLE video/audio
from Blue Ridge Hotshot Mccord’s video.
In the meantime… I assure you… there are parts
of the background audio in the video you just posted
that are CLEARLY not the words that have already
been published over at Wildfire today.
You don’t have to be an audio expert to find the
spots where they got some it wrong already.
If you have a video player that allows you to adjust
the GAIN on the audio… just try a setting of 24db
and that increases the sharpeness of the
background conversations considerably.
Don’t get me wrong.
They ( MacLean / Holly ) did a pretty good job
translating what is a terribly confusing audio track…
…but some of what they think is being said is
not what is being said.
Sorry guys I was getting a little argumentative at what was being stated on wildfire today I was having a lot of trouble with there timelines. as you guys soon found out. Also the guys moving up in the Black with there Saws. As fullsail would say your taking a big jump with no evidence.
Absolutely!
They’re taking a HUGE jump. And I think they may eventually regret it.
We have our constant squabbles about the relationship between evidence and the often necessary need to do some speculation when there are gaps in the narrative, in order to figure out where we may need to go next.
I can’t believe Wildfire Today published that “conversation” (not even a published article) with no documentation, with no grounding in anything available to be scrutinized beyond a photo by Chris MacKenzie that doesn’t say anything at all about what the sawyers did after they walked away from the rock they were sitting on. I guess I feel it for Holly, but she had no business publicly speculating to this extent, and Wildfire Today made a big mistake publishing her seriously unsubstantiated story on their otherwise mostly credible and important site.
Marti,
Why does Holly have no right to be publicly speculating? She has done nothing different than what happens on this site. Why is everyone so offended? She is just trying to get at the truth.
I reckon you are right there that she is doing nothing different than us than she belongs on the comment wall sharing opinions not an essay alongside a very distinguished well known author in the field of fire fatalities sharing a revelation without showing a source; we need transparency. I took a personal offense because she has always been on the scale to us as going the distance and we find her to have excellent character and excellent fire fighting knowledge as her and her husband educated us that hike yet on my hike and times with her she said if I found anything out- let her know. Over time we orchestrated meetings with folks to get some answers she desired answered. We guided her to the ham radio answers and other areas. She even said if she finds out anything she will tell us. Well, she knows on my hike as I separated her from the guys to show her the very first place my eyes met Marsh not spoke to him and we scouted the area. So for her to talk to me on the phone that week during the Holidays and she knew about this audio enhancement at that point and failed to tell me knowing since day one I felt Marsh was away from the crew. Why avoid telling me? Did she think that little radio transmission was going to make headlines and go viral so do not leak it? No. She told others even OSHA and a widow of the 19. It just let me know where I truly stood in this in her life in regards to helping us get answers. That was where the whole back burner word entered my head at 1am. We gave her answers over time. How come withhold the info. during the holidays to drop a bomb email to check emails in the next few days on Bill Gabbert’s. Hey, I trust both not even seeing or hearing the transmissions—it was just the fact they especially she omitted us from letting us know after stating she would. I even recall Wayne joking that they took all my photos and gps’d on a map and I asked if I can have a copy and he seem to give off a light-hearted comment with wit on cost and she said she would send us one but never saw it. We did see many wonderful heart-filled items in person from them as well as shipped to us- firefighter shirts, badge, tee, etc and a very special rock I have on my make-up dresser. No matter if I feel offended she is a very special woman and in her time she may share the source but she may not if it came from someone or somewhere she is unable to but if its the SAIR; it is already public info.; share. Some see my private links and tend to watch what they stated to me in 2013 because they saw it posted on the link their email but hey–we had people coming to us searching the truth and we wanted the ones interested to see we have been 100% transparent except we would never air the emails between us and Amanda Marsh or the doctor who requested us to not publicly speak what he said but we did post his name out for people to reach him. We will remain for the fallen 19 because we support getting the answers for them. I remember the very first time I saw Steed’s kids on the net and I broke down because they are young but kids know more than you think. You can protect them now but one day they will grow up and want answers and I want to make sure I did my part to try and help them get the answers. Probably the same reason Marti you and I will meet in email again when I send the raw photos because its you that needs the photos not a lawyer to pick it apart to whoever side he is on—we need to keep this pure here.
I’m not offended. Not in the least. I’m proud of her.
Now that I hear the video itself it was an incredibly
hard job to even come up with the translation that
she did ( already ). Kudos.
I don’t hear all the same words… and I don’t fully
believe the proposed new ‘theories’… but that
is neither here nor there. I’ll eventually post what
I think I am hearing but its not going to change
all that much.
Everyone keeps missing the IMPORTANT part
of what just happened in the last few days.
Between this new audio capture and the Blue
Ridge Hotshot Mccord YARNELL_GAMBLE
video… there is all the proof that is needed now
that the SAIR was ‘covering up’ managements
knowledge and whereabouts of the Granite
Mountain Hotshots on June 30, 2013.
They had the evidence.
You do not even NEED any ‘experts’ to hear
the most important parts.
Add in Marsh’s (obviously) unaccounted for
cell phone, Robert Caldwell’s unaccounted for
GArmin Oregon 450 GPS unit… and the now
obvious attempt to prevent Christopher’s
Canon Powershot from ever entering the
official ‘chain of evidence’…
…and something is REALLY rotten in the
state of Denmark.
Time to call EVERYONE who was even there
that day back in for more interviews.
And you have no reason to apologize whatsoever! I really appreciate your leading the way into the foray. it helped me decide to go ahead and post my opinion, also!!
Namaste!
Bob, I would like to e-mail you, to share with you a story that will vindicate 100000% what you were saying on Wildfire. What is your e-mail address?
In terms of you being “argumentative,” you weren’t, and I think everyone who can read knows it. Even though John Maclean is an excellent author, there is still room to both respect his work and ask questions (or probe underlying facts). The good thing about John Dougherty is that he is 100% transparent – he will share all of his underlying materials, because he has nothing to hide. I have to believe Maclean feels the same way (or I hope he does, anyway), such that hopefully Maclean will share his underlying audios and materials as well.
Either way, the obvious question that Holly’s and Maclean’s narrative begs is:
Why the HECK would Marsh go all the way to the ranch, only to bush-whack ALL the way back in in time to burn to death in a fire?? Remember, it was not EASY to get back in from the ranch to the deployment site – that was not a five minute brisk walk. Even AFTER the fire, they had to bring in a dozer and work all night to clear out a path from the ranch to the deployment site to get the bodies out. So I am unclear about how quickly Marsh could have gotten from the ranch back into the bottom that ultimately became the deployment site.
According to the Blue Ridge GPS, AFTER the whole area was burned out, it took BR Capt. roughly 15 minutes to hike from the deployment site to the ranch. Marsh was going back in BEFORE it all burned, such that he had to bush-whack, and it had to have taken far more than 15 minutes. No?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j8cEKBzlhws
Something may be getting lost in all this dustup about the word “house”. That is, once again, someone presumably in fire command is communicating with Marsh about Granite Mountain’s move. It is becoming nearly impossible to say they were not aware of it, they likely condoned it, and were likely the genesis of the idea to begin with.
I know we all think it hard to believe, but it sounds as if they went to some lengths to verify what was said. And if they did that, they were right to report the info, even if it did not make “sense”. Probably should not have been so quick to draw conclusions though. Besides, I repeat, what the heck does “at the house where we are going to jump out at” mean anyway? Even allowing for the shorthand that WFF speak in, does that statement make sense?
Mike, I’m not sure if you were referring to me, but, if you were, I am not criticizing Holly’s or Maclean’s work. My position throughout this whole thing has been that any type of brainstorming or info-sharing is worthwhile, even if things are ultimately disproven. I hope that Maclean and Holly will share what they are calling their “cleaned” audios, so that we can all listen….. I personally do not hear “house,” nor did I ever hear “house.” But it sounds like Holly is rock-solid certain that “house” was said, so I don’t doubt her.
I was not referring to anyone. We will have to see if this wording is correct. But the fact that Marsh is discussing this with fire command is significant. Who had these conversations with Marsh and then failed to tell the SAIT? Or did they and then the SAIT ashcanned any reference to them.
Holly has a new comment up at WT in the original post. She is asking a question of those questioning her, and I think it may be along those lines.
I have a bit more documentation at this point than Maclean has, and I can tell you with absolutely certainty that, based on what I have seen thus far, the investigators were NOT asking the right questions. “Goat rodeo” is the phrase that came to mind when I was reading these new documents. The questioning was an actual “goat rodeo.”
The lawyer in me was HORRIFIED. How can you *not* have a list that you prepared carefully in advance of questions you want to ask, at least as a starting point? But the documentation that I have suggests that there was NOT a list prepared in advance for each witness by the “investigators.” I find that stunning. I hope I am wrong, and that more documentation exists, but I am not optimistic.
I answered her but Bill did not post it.
and you are right the discussions were during the so called 33 min. no communications.
Elizabeth… no one says ‘house’ in that
air-study video.
The quote there ( still not verified as Marsh
but it very well COULD be ) is NOT…
“Nah… I’m at the house where we gonna
jump out at”.
What is ACTUALLY said there is…
“Uh… just checkin’ it out to see where
we gonna jump out at.”
See a longer post below about this and
a link to an enhanced audio clip on
YouTube which is here…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eq0rtX5OgKI&feature=youtu.be
WARNING: The GAIN on this enhanced
audio is set VERY, VERY HIGH so you
can hear clearly what is said… but that
also means it will be VERY, VERY LOUD.
Be careful what your local volume is set
to before you play this clip. Don’t hurt
your ears.
See what I wrote above.
Done it once will do again
[email protected]
exactly right Elizabeth. Marsh could not swiftly get through that canyon mazed-like terrain- slow going.
thank you John Dougherty for taking the time out of your schedule to keep this mainstream and for giving we the people freedom of speech and for letting people seek out for the TRUTH. Did you ever get that interview with the Helms? I know many contacted them and they are not talking. I just do not get it. I have walked their area for years and its well known locally they have cameras like I do for our homes. Something Sonny never understood about town folks. Cameras, cameras, cameras. While Sonny’s world is the simple enjoyment of cowboy coffee, canvas tent/tipi and cowboy campfire and many do not understand his way of thinking—just life and human perceptions. I sure hope this fire does not lose its mainstream and gets faded out like I have watched other tragedies unfold that way. So deep thank you for keeping it alive yet to this date the 7/21/13 courier article is the most brought up article we have heard on the streets about Yarnell Fire. Your page is the ones people go to but don’t talk about it. Smiles.
So I wrote back in Chapter III, my comment on the Wildfilre Today story: Holly~
and Bill~
I appreciate your attempt to make sense of what doesn’t make sense. We’re all trying to do that, and for the same reasons.
But your narrative/timeline is just way off and based more on speculation than fact. And what I conceiver to be incorrect speculation at that.
I confess, I’m part of that ASAIT crew, camped out over at JD’s site with our marshmallows and hot chocolate. We’ve been there ever since the SAIR, and some before that. We’ve picked apart, argued over, added to, subtracted from, unconnected and then re-connected dots every time something has surfaced. I play the role of the resident photographer, because I am one.
I’m the one over there who, upon noticing Chris MacKenzie’s camera (the one used for this photograph that you are using for one of your anchors), sitting in the middle of the site as if trying to catch my attention, when it couldn’t seem to catch anybody else’s, said to myself, “I’m gonna find out what happened to that camera.” And I did. It took me a month plus of constant work thru the holidays to do it. As I did it, I took it upon myself to document how that site was investigated, what was on it, where every thing went, and only then was able to keep following the dots on the path Chris’s camera took. What I discovered was that the PFD had removed it from the site after the SAIT “investigation,” kept it out of the chain of evidence, did some tricky maneuvers to get it to Chris’s father so nobody would know about it, but Chris’s dad outsmarted them in the end. Now we are learning there are at least one, if not two, critical cellphones they probably did the same thing with. And, just today, we discovered a GPS unit that fairly cleanly survived that fire, that they probably did the same thing with, also.
Our timelines may have some holes in them but not very many at this point. The big holes are not in the timelines.
I was the one who posted this article over there last night, thanks to being alerted to it by Sonny. It was quite a bombshell. I was speechless. It was like fruitbasket upset.
But as folks discussed it, trying to, as we do, fit it into our existing timelines and try to figure out what needs to be adjusted, a lot of us began coming to the same general conclusion. It can’t be done.
We tend to pound each other over the head a bit when speculation exceeds evidence too much. It’s our informal version of peer review. And yes we do speculate. But we also do a ton of fact-finding.
So. Point 1. Eric Marsh was NOT with the GMHS when this chapter began. From what you have “said,” it seems to me you are one of the many who has been led to believe this by the common narrative. He was a considerable distance above them. There is no evidence he was ever “with the crew” that day. At least until the very bitter end. It was not his job to be with “the crew.” He was the Div A Sup, it was his job to keep his eyes on the larger game and oversee Steed and the crew in relationship to other crews, which included the Blue Ridge Hotshots.
He had called BR Sup Brian Frisbee over for a “meeting” at the anchor point, which was well above where the crew was when this photo was taken. Frisbee, while on his way east to west to meet with Marsh, noticed the fire picking up speed towards them, GM Lookout McDonough with the fire coming down on him, and so grabbed McDonough and got him on the ATV, turned around and headed back to the east. Marsh was still up there when all that happened. He wasn’t with the GM Hotshots.
Point 3. Meanwhile, I don’t know what you mean by a handline, but the crew in this photo was not all that close to where they had been working. They were below it. They were taking a break while Eric and others were having a radio conversation about their “options.”
Point 4. About the sawyers Chris photographed. Before this photo, he had shot this very same Andrew Ashcraft comfortably sitting on a rock down below him, shooting with his cellphone, and sending one of those photos to his wife. Andrew, as far as I know, wasn’t even participating in this conversation. Seventeen seconds later Chris shoots him walking away from this rock with his saw. That’s before even Chris heard–and then decided it was important enough to take the videos he did–Eric, somebody else, and Steed discussing their options. And that’s it. That’s all there is of Andrew and the other sawyer walking. Who can say, from this single still photo, where they were walking, and why they were walking? And what they were thinking, much less planning to do, before or while they were walking. Maybe they were heading out a little tiny bit earlier than the rest of the crew. But maybe they weren’t. Maybe doesn’t make the anchor point of a whole theory such as you are proposing. There is nothing to anchor the theory you are proposing vis a vis the sawyers.
Point 5. Given that Marsh was a significant distance above the crew, I can’t imagine a way he could have, short of Batman powers, made it down past his crew, down to the saddle, and then down through the brush filled bowl, to the Boulder Ranch by the time you are stating he was there. We have played these timelines out over and over again, argued them thoroughly, and always ended up with him being behind the crew, above the crew, until a bit after he stepped over the rim of the bowl, after having seen them in it.
Point 6. Ok, let’s assume Eric had those Batman powers. There’s still no evidence he ever connected up with those sawyers. But let’s say somehow he did got down to the ranch by then. Let’s say he was there at the time you say he had that conversation about being at the “house”–which I agree with others I will only believe it when I hear it and I doubt that was what he was saying. (We’ve had endless arguments about exactly what is being said in these often noisy videos of radio calls).
But anyway. Let’s say he was there. Saying that that was where he was. At that time the winds were shifting further to the NE, causing the fire to press further to the southwest. That was EXACTLY the time the fire was driving right around the bottom of the ridge at the mouth of the canyon, and thus beginning to chimney right up into it. That’s EACTLY what was going on then.
There is no conceivable way I can possibly imagine Eric Marsh, at this point (and yes I agree he made his share of mistakes this day, but NONE of us knows what he decided, or why he decided that; all we know is the consequences) doing ANYTHING but radio-ing the GMHS and telling them to drop EVERYTHING and run, down the bowl ASAP and also stick to the south side of the canyon because the north side is going to get burned faster. Because that was exactly what he would have been seeing at that time.
There’s no way in the Universe he would have, pack and stuff on his back and all, thought “OK. I guess I’ll take a quick hike up there just to die with the rest of my sons, the heroic Granite Mountain Hotshots.” Because if he was down there where you are asserting he was, he would have seen the proof that that was what was going to happen if they didn’t get out of there really fast.
And, I add, if he had time to slog up there with his pack, they certainly would have had time to run down without them.
Namaste
~Marti
Thank you JD for doing this!
John, THANK you for everything you are doing to support this effort for transparency. You are incredible, and you are a consummate professional.
(Interestingly, I just got an e-mail from a different reporter/author who was chewing me out for asking questions and pushing for information regarding the Yarnell Hill Fire. It was an interesting juxtaposition to your willingness to share information and work for transparency, as opposed fiercely trying to find and protect a secret “scoop.”)
We all appreciate you here.
During the aftermath of the Boston Marathon Bombing (which I followed really, really closely) the game of the media was very interesting.
CNN was always trying to get “the scoop.” By doing that, they were practically the worst in documenting what was actually going on. Everybody actually paying attention basically learned to not believe ANYTHING they said.
NBC, on the other hand, made ONE mistake. During the entire chaos of the entire thing. Everything else they reported was spot exactly on. Their anchor (and I can’t remember ATM his name), except for that ONE mistake, got everything else CORRECT. Because he waited to make sure the fact-checking was done before he reported it. That was a HUGE media learning experience for me. He wasn’t necessarily first, but he was pretty much CORRECT.
There are the ones that want the scoop and there are the ones that ones that want the facts. There is a huge tension between the two, especially in the age of Twitter and things emerging from the ground up in immediate internet time.
It appears to me that that tension is playing itself out right now in this Yarnell Mountain Fire thing. There’s all kinds of data being released right now. And all kinds of speculation and attempts to get “scoops” based on it. By a whole lot of people who, like CNN during the aftermath of the Boston Marathon bombing, are more interested in getting it first than getting it right.
That’s why I wrote what I wrote tonight on the Wildfire Today site. Somebody should have done a whole lot more fact-checking.
Images 0885 0886 and 0887 all show cut shrub stumps… Hmmm
I believe Andrew Ashcraft is seen sitting to the left of Deford in the 0888 video. I believe Wade Parker is sitting to Ashcrafts’ immediate left.
Calvin—
So does that tell you those sawyers shown in 0887 left or just moved up the hill to where everyone else was? also did you look close at the smoke and fire spread?
What, exactly, makes you think that? (about both Ashcraft and Parker)?
BTW I don’t think that’s Ashcraft at all. Because 7 minutes before Chris filmed this video, he photographed Ashcraft walking away (to the right) from the rock he had been sitting on, way down lower (and to the right) of the crew. But maybe he did come up, and back over to the left, and sit right down there. I don’t know. But it’s part of what I’m challenging Holly on. We don’t know what he was thinking, or planning to do, when he got down off his rock, and started walking away from it.
The person you think is Ashcraft is sitting there at 3:51:58, while the person we KNOW is Ashcraft, is sitting on a rock, down below the rest of the crew, taking a picture with a cellphone at 3:52:07.
**
** AS OF FEBRUARY 15… MESSAGES ARE NOW
** DISPLAYED IN REVERSE ORDER WITH MOST
** RECENT POSTS AT THE TOP.
Obviously this is not a reply to ‘Marti’.
This message is inserted here just in case anyone who
had been following this thread thinks the list has been
‘truncated’.
It hasn’t.
As of February 15, 2013, the WordPress software was
told to ‘reverse’ the display order and now all NEW
messages are displayed FIRST.
So the LATEST postings to this thread are now at the
TOP of this page and the message just above
is the FIRST one that was posted to this thread on
January 20, 2013.
On February 16, 2014… a new Chapter V ( Five )
of this ongoing discussion was created.
That new Chapter V page is here…
http://www.investigativemedia.com/yarnell-hill-fire-chapter-v-comments